Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 21, 2026

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 21, 2026

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi and appointed Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi, the Ukrainian Joint Forces Task Force Commander, as his replacement late on July 21. Drapatyi has served as the Joint Forces Task Force commander since June 3, 2025, and previously served as the Ukrainian Ground Forces commander from November 2024 to June 2025.

Russian authorities are continuing costly efforts to mitigate the loss of oil refining capacity caused by Ukrainian long-range strikes by subsidizing diesel imports. On July 21, the Russian State Duma unanimously adopted a bill in its third reading that amends the Tax Code and expands the fuel price damping mechanism to diesel exports during active diesel export bans. This legislation authorizes the Russian government to compensate oil companies from the federal budget for selling diesel domestically below export prices, similar to a mechanism implemented for imported gasoline on June 23. Russian officials, including State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, claim these measures will stabilize the domestic fuel market soon.

The Russian government continues to exert legal pressure on migrants to coerce them into military service under threat of deportation. A bill passed on July 21 expands the list of offenses for which authorities can deport migrants, including discrediting the Russian Armed Forces, participating in unauthorized protests, and disobeying law enforcement. Authorities likely seek to detain large numbers of migrants to force them into signing military service contracts as recruitment rates decline.

Polish authorities continue to warn of possible Russian provocations against NATO’s eastern flank. Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz stated that Russia may use seized Ukrainian drones to conduct false flag operations against Poland, the Baltic states, Finland, or Romania. ISW assesses that Russia is conducting a “Phase Zero” campaign aimed at setting informational and psychological conditions for future provocations through drone incursions, sabotage, and electronic warfare.

Key Takeaways

1. Ukrainian President Zelensky dismissed General Oleksandr Syrskyi and appointed Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi as Commander-in-Chief late on July 21.
2. Russian authorities are subsidizing diesel imports to mitigate oil refining capacity losses from Ukrainian strikes.
3. The Russian government is using legal pressure and deportation threats to coerce migrants into military service.
4. Polish authorities warn of Russian provocations against NATO's eastern flank.
5. Ukrainian forces struck Russian manufacturing and military assets, while Russia launched 58 drones against Ukraine overnight.
6. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Oleksandrivka direction and northern Kharkiv Oblast.

Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation

Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against industrial and military assets in Russia. On July 21, the Ukrainian General Staff reported a strike on the Khalino airfield in Kursk Oblast, which damaged a MiG-29 fighter jet and a Pantsir-S1 air-defense system. Additionally, a fire broke out at an industrial facility in Lipetsk City following a reported missile strike; the site is home to the Novolipetsk Steel Plant, Russia's largest steel mill. Satellite imagery also confirmed damage to a Wildberries warehouse near Domodedovo after a drone strike on July 20.

Russian Supporting Effort: Northern Axis

Russian forces continued limited offensive operations in northern Sumy Oblast on July 20 and 21, but Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Yunakivka. Russia has intensified KAB guided bomb strikes against Sumy City, launching 70 since the beginning of June 2026 compared to only four between February and May. Ukrainian drone strikes targeted Russian water infrastructure, reportedly destroying the Belgorod Reservoir dam and causing flooding in nearby areas. Other strikes hit a Russian drone control point near Naumovka, a support warehouse near Popovo-Lezhach, and MLRSs near Kozacha Lokhnya.

Russian Main Effort: Eastern Ukraine

In northern Kharkiv Oblast, Russian forces continued offensive operations but made no confirmed advances on July 20 and 21. Along the Oskil River, Russian forces conducted infiltration missions, holding positions in central Kupyansk and south of Kurylivka. However, geolocated footage shows Ukrainian forces maintaining positions south of Radkivka and in northwestern Shyikivka, contrary to Russian claims.

In Donetsk Oblast, Russian forces are intensifying efforts in the Lyman direction, reportedly "going all-in" despite heavy losses. Near Kostyantynivka, Ukrainian forces recently advanced or maintained positions, while Russian forces attempted to gain footholds and establish drone launch points in Chasiv Yar. In the Dobropillya tactical area, ISW observed the 944th Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment on the battlefield for the first time. Ukrainian forces also recently advanced or maintained positions east of Oleksandrivka near Myrne.

Ukrainian strikes in occupied Donetsk targeted electrical substations in Zemlianky and Makiivka, a logistics warehouse in Davydovske, and a railway bridge in Staromarivka used for Russian logistics.

Russian Supporting Effort: Southern Axis

On July 17, Russian forces conducted their first motorized assault in the Orikhiv direction since February 2026, utilizing all-terrain vehicles (ATVs). Ukrainian forces continued their strike campaign, hitting an electrical substation near Hannivka and a drone control point near Kamyanske. In occupied Kherson Oblast, strikes hit a radar station near Khorly and a building in Hornostaivka. Occupied Kherson and Crimea continue to experience significant power outages due to technical failures and Ukrainian strikes on numerous electrical substations, including the Azovska and Soliana substations. Russian authorities have reportedly deployed volunteer patrols to maintain order at gas stations in Crimea and Krasnodar Krai.

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign

On the night of July 20 to 21, Russian forces launched 58 strike and decoy drones. Ukrainian forces downed 46 drones, but eight drones struck seven locations, hitting residential infrastructure in several oblasts. Furthermore, a Liberian-flagged vessel, the Gas Libson, was likely struck by Russian forces in international waters near the Romanian coast while en route to a Ukrainian port.

Significant Activity in Belarus

There is nothing significant to report regarding Belarus on July 21. ISW assessments are based on publicly available information and commercially available satellite imagery.