Iran Update Special Report, July 25, 2026
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute Data Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET
Analyst Notes
ISW-CTP has revised its update structure due to the resumption of war between the United States and Iran. Iran is currently engaged in an information effort to frame its attacks on US bases and regional states as retaliatory and defensive; however, it is actually engaged in proactive military operations to achieve discrete objectives.
Key Takeaways
- The Saudi-led coalition struck several Houthi targets across Yemen to degrade capabilities to threaten shipping and strike critical infrastructure.
- The Houthis responded by attacking Saudi vessels and Red Sea ports, raising the cost for Saudi Arabia to continue air operations.
- The United States did not conduct a wave of overnight strikes in Iran for the first time in 13 days. President Donald Trump reportedly ordered a hold after an Omani delegation arrived in Tehran to discuss re-opening the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran has fired advanced variants of the Kheybar Shekan medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM) at regional US bases, which have successfully evaded US defenses.
Toplines
Saudi-Houthi Conflict The Saudi-led coalition struck Houthi targets on July 24 and 25, including a telecommunications building in Hudaydah City and Houthi barracks. While Saudi officials denied striking Hudaydah Port, geolocated imagery showed a fire burning there on July 24. In response, Saudi forces targeted Houthi drone and missile launch sites in Jawf and Marib on July 25.
The Houthis retaliated by firing missiles and drones at oil infrastructure in Yanbu and Jizan. While Saudi defenses intercepted two ballistic missiles targeting Yanbu, munitions did impact Jizan. The Houthis also attacked a Saudi vessel, the NCC Masa, in the Red Sea. Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Sarea warned that the group will continue its blockade on Saudi ports and "not hesitate" to escalate.
These attacks advance Iranian interests by eliminating Saudi alternatives to accepting Iran’s demand for recognized control over the Strait of Hormuz, as Saudi Arabia heavily depends on Yanbu for oil exports.
US Strikes and Iranian Calibration For the first time in nearly two weeks, the US paused its nightly strikes in Iran. President Trump met with advisers on July 24 to discuss expanding military operations but ordered a hold following the arrival of Omani mediators in Tehran.
Since July 12, US forces have struck over 1,000 targets in Iran, including command centers, drone storage, and maritime capabilities. Iranian activity has mirrored this pause; only one attack targeting a US base in Bahrain was reported since July 24, suggesting Iran is calibrating its attacks in response to US activity. Iran’s strategy is to inflict steady casualties to create domestic pressure in the US to halt the air campaign.
Threats to President Trump US officials determined that "Iranian proxy forces" posed a "credible threat" to President Trump and Air Force One during his return from the NATO summit in Ankara on July 8. This threat was separate from a previous plot attributed to Israeli intelligence in early July.
US and Partner Military Operations
On July 24, US forces disabled the Lavine, a vessel attempting to transport Iranian liquefied petroleum gas in the Gulf of Oman, after the crew ignored four warnings to comply with the US blockade. Iranian media reported that the strike killed two sailors. This is the second ship disabled since the US re-imposed the blockade on July 14.
Iranian Strike Campaign
Assessed Iranian War Aims:
- Secure international recognition of Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.
- Degrade US ability and willingness to continue the war.
- Restore deterrence and divide the US and Israel from Arab states.
Advanced Missile Capabilities US officials confirmed that advanced Kheybar Shekan MRBMs have successfully circumvented US air defenses by using different flight paths, speeds, and maneuvers. These missiles feature detachable warhead-bearing nosecones that can adjust trajectory during the terminal phase at speeds up to 6,000 miles per hour. Iran is estimated to have possessed 2,500 of these missiles before the war began and may be currently assembling more in underground facilities.
Iranian Domestic Affairs
Nuclear Program Intelligence assessments suggest that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has a greater interest in developing a nuclear weapon than his father, Ali Khamenei. Mojtaba reportedly supports developing a miniaturized thermonuclear warhead for deployment on long-range missiles. However, experts like David Albright assess that current barriers remain significant, as 2025 and 2026 strikes by the US and Israel disabled much of Iran’s uranium enrichment infrastructure and destroyed highly enriched uranium stockpiles.
Regional Status
- Lebanon: Nothing significant to report.
- Iraq: Nothing significant to report.
- Arabian Peninsula: (See Topline section regarding Houthi/Saudi conflict).
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