The following is a full reproduction of the provided text from the article "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 13, 2026."

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 13, 2026

Ukrainian forces continue to intensify and expand their strike campaign aimed at denying Russia’s ability to sustain logistics and transport fuel to occupied Crimea and isolate the peninsula. The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) reported on July 13 that Ukrainian forces conducted a large-scale strike operation on the night of July 12 to 13, simultaneously striking Russian military, logistics, and fuel facilities in occupied Crimea and Russia. The SBU reported that Ukrainian forces struck two Russian project 12150 Mangust-class patrol boats in the Black Sea; hangars with military and special equipment at the Baherove military air base in occupied Crimea; three stationary radar stations used to detect Ukrainian unmanned service vehicles (USVs) and drones in an unspecified location; the Yeisk and Maria cargo and passenger ferries at the Krym ferry terminal in occupied Kerch, Crimea; the Lavrentiy and Panagia cargo and passenger ferries and three oil tanks in the port of Kavkaz, Krasnodar Krai; a railway warehouse with oil tanks at the Kavkaz freight station, Krasnodar Krai; and an oil tank farm at an oil depot in Vyazniki, Stavropol Krai.

Ukrainian forces are engaged in a systematic multipronged interdiction campaign aimed at isolating Crimea and denying Russia the ability to sustain logistics to the peninsula, striking bridges, major highways, and rail infrastructure from occupied Kherson Oblast to occupied Crimea; Kerch Strait crossings and ferries moving between occupied Crimea and Krasnodar Krai; and fuel tankers and vessels in the Sea of Azov. The SBU’s July 12 to 13 overnight strikes demonstrate the enhanced planning capabilities of Ukrainian forces in their ability to simultaneously conduct such strikes against various targets. Continued Ukrainian strikes, if sustained, can continue to disrupt Russia’s ability to sustain logistics to the peninsula, which can degrade frontline Russian offensive operations and impede Russian advances in southern Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces reportedly liberated six settlements and 120 square kilometers in the Oleksandrivka direction over an unspecified time period as part of their ongoing counterattacks in the area supported by intensifying intermediate-range strikes. A Ukrainian regiment operating in the Oleksandrivka direction announced on July 13 that Ukrainian forces liberated Ternove, Zaporizke, Novoheorhiivka, Vorone, Sichneve, and Maliivka (all southeast of Oleksandrivka), liberating 120 square kilometers and advancing 25 kilometers in depth. The regiment seemingly deleted its original announcement without issuing a formal statement retracting its initial report later on July 13, but several Ukrainian media outlets have reported on and republished the announcement. Ukrainian forces began counterattacks in the Oleksandrivka direction in Winter 2026, liberating around 480 square kilometers in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia oblasts since January 2026. The regiment reported that it inflicted critical losses on elements of the Russian 120th Naval Infantry Division (Baltic Fleet) and destroyed a personnel concentration of the Russian 656th Motorized Rifle Regiment in Temyrivka, forcing Russian units to retreat. Ukraine’s tactical success in the Oleksandrivka direction continues to force Russia to choose between defending against Ukrainian counterattacks or allocating manpower and resources to priority sectors.

A Russian Geran-2 drone struck Copanca, Moldova, on the night of July 12 to 13. The Moldovan Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported on July 13 that a Russian Geran-2 (the Russian-produced version of an Iranian Shahed-136) drone crashed and exploded in Copanca, roughly 25 kilometers from the Moldovan-Ukrainian border, after entering Moldovan airspace during strikes against Odesa Oblast. Russian drones or drone debris have crashed onto Moldovan territory over 20 times and onto Romanian territory at least 30 times since February 2022. Increasingly frequent Russian drone incursions into European and NATO airspace indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin has adopted a reckless policy that accepts the risk of Russian drones entering European and NATO airspace as an acceptable consequence of its strikes in Ukraine. This underscores the need for European and NATO states to consider negotiating possible air defense agreements with Ukraine as a matter of self-defense.

Key Takeaways

1. Ukrainian forces continue to intensify and expand their strike campaign aimed at denying Russia’s ability to sustain logistics and transport fuel to occupied Crimea and isolate the peninsula.
2. Ukrainian forces reportedly liberated six settlements and 120 square kilometers in the Oleksandrivka direction over an unspecified time period as part of their ongoing counterattacks.
3. A Russian Geran-2 drone struck Copanca, Moldova, on the night of July 12 to 13.
4. Russian forces launched three Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 134 drones against Ukraine overnight.
5. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Oleksandrivka direction.

Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation

Gasoline shortages due to Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure are impacting Russia’s agricultural sector and the delivery of aid to Russian forces. The Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) reported on July 10 that Russian farmers are complaining about fuel supply shortages, noting that the fuel crisis could lead to a loss of up to 30 percent of the harvest this season. Restrictions on gasoline sales are forcing Russian forklift drivers to fill up almost every hour, and prohibitions on filling canisters at gas stations are affecting the work of bulldozers or excavators that cannot drive on public roads. Several Russian volunteer organizations are also struggling to deliver humanitarian aid due to the shortages. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that July 11–12 strikes against the Syzran Oil Refinery damaged its AVT-5 and AVT-6 primary oil processing units.

Russian Supporting Effort: Northern Axis

Russian forces continue to conduct infiltration missions in northern Sumy Oblast. Geolocated footage published on July 13 shows Ukrainian forces striking a Russian position north of Komarivka after what ISW assesses was a Russian infiltration mission.

Russian Main Effort: Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast on July 12 and 13 but did not make confirmed advances. A Russian milblogger claimed Russian forces advanced in southern Kozacha Lopan. Ukrainian authorities implemented measures to protect against Russia’s growing first-person view (FPV) drone strike campaign by installing anti-drone nets on sections of the Kharkiv City ring road.

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Oskil River Russian forces continued infiltration missions in the Kupyansk direction. Geolocated footage published on July 13 shows Ukrainian forces striking a Russian-occupied building in central Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi after an assessed Russian infiltration mission. Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Borova direction on July 13 but did not advance.

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast Ukrainian forces maintain positions east of Slovyansk, contrary to previous Russian claims of advance. Russian forces continued infiltration missions within and southwest of Kostyantynivka. Geolocated footage published on July 4 and 8 shows Ukrainian forces striking Russian-occupied buildings in northwestern Kostyantynivka and eastern Dovha Balka after assessed Russian infiltration missions. Russian sources continue to publish likely artificial intelligence (AI)-altered footage showing alleged Russian advances in Kostyantynivka to propagate claims for informational effects. Russian forces are intensifying strikes against Druzhkivka, where 4,000 people remain without power, water, and gas. Ukrainian forces recently advanced or maintained positions in the Dobropillya tactical area. Ukrainian forces continued their strike campaign against Russian military assets in occupied Donetsk Oblast, striking a Russian Navy vessel in the port of Mariupol and various logistics targets in Kuteinykove, Starobesheve, and Yenakiieve.

Russian Supporting Effort: Southern Axis

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction and western Zaporizhia Oblast on July 12 and 13 but did not advance. Russian forces continue to use the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to store military equipment and launch drone strikes. The GUR reported that Russian forces are storing military equipment in engine rooms and using ZNPP roofs for machine-gun nests and missile systems. Russian forces are reportedly deploying drone control points at the plant, sometimes involving underage student workers from the Alabuga SEZ.

Ukrainian forces used a USV to deploy a UGV to the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast in the first unmanned amphibious assault mission. Strikes on Russian vessels have significantly reduced naval traffic in the Sea of Azov, with the number of vessels decreasing from 132 on July 6 to 43 on July 12. Ukrainian forces also continued to strike military and energy infrastructure in occupied Crimea overnight, hitting four power substations, an S-400 air defense system, and a large logistics hub near Armyansk.

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign

Russian forces conducted a series of long-range drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of July 12 to 13. The Ukrainian Air Force reported the launch of three Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 134 strike and decoy drones; Ukrainian forces downed all three missiles and 123 drones. Russian strikes damaged residential and commercial infrastructure across several oblasts and hit a Togo-flagged civilian merchant vessel carrying fertilizers. Strikes on the Chornomorsk port destroyed 45,000 tons of wheat and 9,000 tons of sunflower oil. Russia is increasingly using Shahed-type drones with jet engines, which fly at low altitudes and fast speeds, to frighten civilians and make Kyiv City "completely unlivable."

Significant Activity in Belarus

Nothing significant to report.