The online shopping trend where you buy nothing

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The online shopping trend where you buy nothing 

On South Korea’s “dopamine sites,” the pleasure comes from aspirational shopping rituals like browsing, curating, and tracking — not from a delivery.

**By ITIKA SHARMA PUNIT** 

*14 AUGUST 2026* 

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This week, I placed orders for a $44,860 Patek Philippe hand-engraved watch, a $12,500 Hermès handbag, a $9,800 Tiffany diamond ring, and a $7,350 Cartier Love bracelet in yellow gold.

I don't need any of them. I certainly can't afford them. Thankfully, they'll never arrive.

Instead of Amazon, I spent the past week browsing a new breed of websites known as "dopamine sites," a trend that emerged in South Korea.

These websites — like Dopamine Shop and FoodNeverComes — recreate the entire ritual of online shopping: You search for products, compare reviews, add items to your cart, enter a shipping address, place an order, and even track your delivery.

Then ... nothing happens. No money changes hands. No package arrives.

It's tempting to dismiss them as another quirky internet trend. But after spending a week placing imaginary orders, I found myself wondering if online shopping has stopped being solely about buying things.

South Korea is one of the world's most mature e-commerce markets, where digital payments, food delivery, and online retail are deeply embedded in everyday life. That makes it an ideal place for an idea like fake shopping to materialize.

But the behavior itself is far more universal, Shriram Venkatraman, assistant professor at the Danish Institute for Advanced Study, who researches digital consumption, culture, and commerce, told *Rest of World*.

"People in many places have browsed without buying, window-shopped, filled online carts, and left them there," Venkatraman said. "They have fantasized about things they might own, compared products without any immediate intention to purchase, or just simply have enjoyed the anticipation of acquiring something.... So, what may be particularly Korean at this moment is not necessarily the underlying behaviour, but the way that behaviour has been formalized into a digital service." 

Purchasing and shopping are not necessarily the same act. The former is about acquiring and the latter is more of a ritual. The pleasure from dopamine websites comes from the ritual.

Venkatraman compares this phenomenon to shopping carts on e-commerce websites. People use online shopping carts for reasons well beyond an immediate intention to buy, he said. They could do it to gather information, organize possible purchases, wait for promotions, and sometimes just for entertainment.

"So, one way of looking at dopamine sites is that they take a behavior that already existed around ordinary e-commerce and make that behavior itself much more central to the experience," he said.

While culture may shape what items people click on, the dopamine hit is universal, Helen Jambunathan, consumer anthropologist and director of insight at Canvas8, a London-based consultancy, told *Rest of World*.

"The concept of retail therapy has been around for a long time, and it persists for a reason," Jambunathan said. "'Fake' shopping sites are interesting as they reveal shopping as an emotional experience, not just a transactional one. People are prioritizing anticipation, choice, and curation over ownership, reaping the psychological rewards of shopping without the financial consequences." 

It's tempting to assume that people in different countries shop online for fundamentally different reasons, and that some cultures are driven by necessity while others seek entertainment or indulgence. While there may be some differences, Jambunathan said, "most shopping is still driven by necessity and convenience." 

Venkatraman also said the differences are often less about nationality than circumstance.

"The same person might shop out of necessity in the morning, out of boredom at lunch, aspirationally around payday, and perhaps even out of loneliness at midnight," he said.

What changes across countries is often the context surrounding those moments: what people can afford, what counts as desirable, what friends are buying, whether purchases are made individually or as a household, and even how easy local payment systems make it to complete a purchase.

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Small firms could get big relief on bank guarantees

Performance bank guarantee may go as govt plans to leverage existing schemes

By Manas Pimpalkhare

NEW DELHI: The Centre aims to ease cash concerns for smaller enterprises by scrapping stiff performance bank guarantees required for government contracts, according to two officials aware of the discussions. Instead, the government plans to marshal existing schemes to support the performance requirement, which could potentially free up working capital totalling trillions of rupees for enterprises that form the backbone of Indian industry.

The Union ministry for micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSME) is currently discussing this proposal with the department for promotion of industry and internal trade (DPIIT). Many government contracts presently mandate that MSMEs furnish a performance bank guarantee to compensate the government for potential defaults, which often burdens small businesses living on thin margins.

Under the current General Financial Rules of 2017, MSMEs securing a government contract valued at over ₹10 lakh must furnish a performance bank guarantee worth 3-10% of the project value. The proposed shift involves linking these requirements with the Centre’s existing credit guarantee schemes. Under these schemes, the government promises to cover lenders’ losses in case of default, allowing businesses to access collateral-free bank loans.

Industry Impact and Significance Industry stakeholders have noted that this relief would be particularly welcome for the MSME sector, where the vast majority of enterprises are micro units with a turnover of less than ₹10 crore. Vinod Kumar, president of the India SME Forum, stated that removing these guarantees has been a long-standing plea, as they force smaller businesses to set aside significant working capital, narrowing their room for expansion.

The significance of this proposal is highlighted by several key data points:

• MSMEs accounted for 50% of the central government’s ₹2.30 trillion procurement of goods and services in FY26.
• A November 2025 report by axiTrust estimated that nearly ₹15 trillion (about 4.5% of India’s GDP) remains frozen in bank guarantees.
• The proposal is expected to provide relief to India's 74 million MSMEs, which account for over 30% of GDP and employ over 320 million people.

Expert Perspectives R. Gandhi, a former deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of India, described the idea as positive, noting that performance bank guarantees are an additional burden that often require fixed deposits as collateral. "If performance bank guarantees are not a requirement, their liquidity position also improves, and cost of operations also becomes lower," he said.

Veeramani C., professor and director at the Centre for Development Studies, added that MSMEs face higher risks than larger firms because their capital base is lower and their businesses are less diversified, making it difficult to balance a single contract failure with other successes. A performance bank guarantee safeguards contractual performance for the buyer, but replacing it with government credit guarantees could significantly reduce this financial strain on small enterprises.

Microsoft, others eye buyout of HR firm Darwinbox

Darwinbox has so far raised $290 million

By Sneha Shah

MUMBAI: KKR-backed human resource and payroll services provider Darwinbox is drawing buyout interest even as it prepares for a potential public listing over the next couple of years. Existing investors Salesforce and Microsoft, along with US-based HR and payroll services provider ADP, have approached its founders and board with the intention to buy others out, according to people familiar with the development.

Valuation and Investment Darwinbox was valued at around $1 billion when it raised $140 million from KKR and Partners Group in March last year. Sources now indicate the company is likely to be valued at approximately $1.8-2.0 billion. One person noted that high-growth SaaS (software as a service) companies with domain expertise are seeing significant traction from global financial and strategic investors.

To date, the firm has raised $290 million across various funding rounds. Its investor base includes:

• KKR and Partners Group
• 3one4 Capital
• Lightspeed
• Sequoia
• Salesforce
• Microsoft
• TCV

Company Response and Plans A spokesperson for Darwinbox denied any talks for a stake sale, stating that the company is on track to pursue an initial public offering (IPO) in the medium term. While Salesforce and Microsoft did not answer queries, an ADP spokesperson declined to comment. Industry insiders suggest that while Salesforce and Microsoft aim to add payroll services to their product bouquets, firms like ADP want to deepen their existing expertise.

Growth and Operations Founded in 2015 by Jayant Paleti, Rohit Chennamaneni, and Chaitanya Peddi, Darwinbox provides an end-to-end HR platform covering recruitment, onboarding, attendance, payroll, and people analytics. It serves over 1,000 clients, including major names such as Adani, Mahindra, JSW, Swiggy, Starbucks, Nivea, and Kotak.

According to an October 2026 report:

• Operating revenue jumped 50% to ₹533.9 crore in FY25, up from ₹334 crore in FY24.
• International expansion drove much of this growth, with overseas revenue up 83% year-on-year.
• International markets contributed 63% of new sales.

Sector Context Darwinbox operates in a thriving sub-segment; India currently has about 3,000 HR SaaS firms, with 324 of them having collectively raised over $2.08 billion in venture capital and private equity funding. Of these, 101 have reached Series A+ funding, and two, including Darwinbox, have achieved unicorn status.

Can India sustain its consumption revival in Q2?

By Neethi Lisa Rojan

The retail consumer sector experienced mixed growth during the April-June period (Q1FY27). While the quarter was marked by unprecedented raw material price hikes fueled by the West Asia war, GST cuts played a significant role in boosting consumption. As India moves into the second quarter, several factors are shaping whether this revival can be sustained.

Which consumer segments grew in Q1? Growth was most robust in rural consumption, premium fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) categories, quick commerce, and consumer durables. Hindustan Unilever’s CEO, Priya Nair, noted a significant "step-up" in rural growth over the last few quarters. In the tech-led retail space, Zomato’s parent company, Eternal, reported a 268% year-on-year (y-o-y) jump in consolidated profit. Additionally, consumer durable firms saw strong revenue growth as a particularly harsh summer spiked sales for air conditioners.

How did retailers perform? Indian listed retailers generally had a strong first quarter, though performance varied by niche:

• Value Fashion: This segment outperformed general retail, with V Mart reporting a 40.5% increase in net profit.
• General Retail: Avenue Supermarts reported a more subdued quarter, as slowing sales at mature stores and higher operating costs weighed on profitability. The management indicated that the rapid store expansion seen last year (+20% y-o-y) might not be feasible for FY27.
• Supply Chain Risks: Trent (parent of Zudio and Westside) flagged emerging risks related to raw material inflation and supply chain disruptions.

What other factors are shaping demand? Several macroeconomic factors are influencing current demand:

• Monsoon and Inputs: Fears regarding El Niño have subsided following strong rains in July. Furthermore, crude oil prices have dropped to $70–80 per barrel, which has lowered costs for transportation and plastic packaging.
• Inflation Challenges: Rising food prices remain a hurdle. India’s retail inflation reached 4.45% in July, surpassing the RBI’s 4% midpoint target, with food inflation specifically rising to 5.52%.
• Specific Hits and Wins: While soap and detergent makers like HUL, Jyothy Labs, and Godrej Consumer were pinched by packaging costs, Marico saw a 45% drop in the price of copra (a key raw material), allowing it to cut prices and achieve a record 11% volume growth.

How may the coming quarters look? Most companies are optimistic about a stronger performance in the upcoming months. A primary driver is the extended festival season, which runs from August to November this year, providing a larger sales window than the previous year. Additionally, jewellery sales are expected to rebound; they were previously hampered in May by the adhik maas (an inauspicious period) but are now poised to pick up as international tensions subside. To capitalize on this, companies are currently restructuring portfolios and rolling out new products.

Why Big Tech’s AI spending is $3 trillion higher than it seems

Massive spending commitments for data-center leases and chips aren’t shown on companies’ balance sheets

By Peter Rudegeair & Peter Santilli

Google parent Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Oracle, and many others have disclosed massive capital expenditures on artificial intelligence infrastructure, but these figures do not capture the full extent of their future spending. A Wall Street Journal analysis of securities filings reveals that nine top tech companies have approximately $3 trillion in off-balance-sheet commitments, primarily related to AI.

The Scale of Obligations

These coming financial obligations are growing faster than traditional capital expenditures (capex), which totaled about $600 billion over the past reported year. The $3 trillion in commitments is roughly triple what these companies owe in outstanding leases and long-term borrowings. Under current accounting rules, purchase commitments typically remain off the balance sheet until the product or service is actually delivered.

Key examples of these burgeoning obligations include:

• Alphabet: Its purchase commitments and contractual obligations exploded to $811 billion as of June 30, a massive increase from the $332 billion reported just three months prior. These obligations, spanning several years, primarily relate to "technical infrastructure and inventory" and "energy for data center usage".
• Meta: The company disclosed $347 billion in total obligations for leases that haven't kicked in yet as of June. This includes the "Hyperion" datacenter project in Louisiana, which is the size of about 1,700 football fields. Meta has guaranteed to make bondholders whole even if it does not stay for the entire 20-year term, but since it does not view payments under that guarantee as "probable," no liability is recorded on its balance sheet.
• Nvidia: The firm committed to making $27 billion in equity investments between April 26 and the end of its fiscal year in January 2027.

The Risk of the AI Bet

Tech giants are placing these enormous bets on the assumption that demand for AI computing and hardware will continue to soar. Optimists point to current hardware shortages as proof that future revenue will easily cover these bills.

However, if these assumptions about technology and demand prove incorrect, these commitments could become a "monstrous burden" for companies and investors. Signs of strain are already appearing:

• Alphabet and Amazon recently reported negative free cash flow, meaning their capital spending exceeded the cash brought in from operations.
• Unlike some other expenses, purchase commitments and signed leases generally cannot be cancelled.
• If revenues do not arrive as expected, companies may be left paying for expensive infrastructure they cannot use profitably, potentially forcing them to borrow even more.

Morgan Stanley accounting analysts noted in April that as these off-balance-sheet commitments become larger and more complex, it is becoming "increasingly difficult for investors to assess companies’ total potential leverage".

The analysis covered commitments for Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, Nvidia, Broadcom, SpaceX, and Advanced Micro Devices.

Haze over Hormuz

QUICK EDIT

With mutual strikes continuing and both the US and Iran having declared the unceremonious binning of their June memo on an interim truce, it’s effectively inconsequential whether the peace it promised gets a timeline extension after the 60-day period’s expiry on Monday. Yet, how the situation unfolds is being watched closely for what comes next.

With or without the memo’s renewal, the world must reckon with a muddle of claims on what matters to global markets: the status of the Gulf’s chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz. The US-Iran deadlock arises from here. Both countries claim control of it. Both have asserted or hinted of permanent rights over it, signalling a world in which shipping lanes can be held hostage by military force.

Ship traffic through the strait remains a trickle regardless of who actually controls it. What’s clear is that this mutually assured obstruction must end before the oil reserves released by China and others run thin and lose their cooling effect on crude prices. To reduce the likelihood of an oil after-shock, the US may need to accept that its campaign has not yielded the results it sought. It is time to cut losses, put this war in the past and relieve markets.

Bollywood box office roars back but OTT deals stay flat

Every buyer today is far more focused on return on investment than simply acquiring content for scale.

By Lata Jha

NEW DELHI: India's box office is booming again, but that cheer isn’t spilling over into the market for films’ streaming, satellite and other ancillary rights.

The cumulative box office for January to June 2026 releases was ₹6,398 crore, making it the highest-grossing first half of any year since the pandemic, surpassing 2025 by nearly ₹650 crore. While this spark should have ideally resulted in greater enthusiasm for selling ancillary rights such as OTT and satellite TV, trade experts say there is still caution. Streaming and satellite rights fell by an estimated 50% and 70-80%, respectively, after the covid peak, and the trend has not reversed yet.

The Shift to Performance-Linked Value Platform economics are tighter than they were three or four years ago. Every buyer—whether a music label, a streamer, or a broadcaster—has learned to link value to demonstrated audience love rather than promise. While a few hits raise the ceiling, consistency is what will raise the floor, and industry executives say the industry isn't there yet.

"A successful theatrical run improves negotiating leverage, particularly because several streaming deals are now linked to box-office performance. However, it has not restored the earlier pre-sale market," said Rohit Dalmia, chairman and managing director of CineNow. He noted that while large films with stars remain easier to monetize, mid-budget and smaller films increasingly need theatrical validation or a clear platform fit.

Selective Buying and Profitability Digital and satellite-rights values remain under pressure as buyers prioritize profitability. Platforms now prefer performance-linked pricing, broadcasters assess television suitability, and music labels focus on repeat consumption. Even films that did "fair business" at the box office, such as Main Vaapas Aaunga and Pati Patni Aur Woh Do, only managed conservative deals.

Narendra Hirawat, chairman of NH Studioz, explained that entertainment is becoming more fragmented, with audiences choosing between creator-led content, gaming, and AI-generated content. "Naturally, broadcasters, music labels and streaming platforms have become much more selective before committing significant capital," he said.

End of Irrational Bidding Trade experts agree that the days of irrational bidding for every film are over. Platforms are now evaluating projects based on content, commercial potential, and audience fit rather than just the production house or star cast. Some have reduced acquisition budgets, while others focus exclusively on carefully curated titles. Additionally, industry consolidation, mergers, and changing consumption patterns have contributed to the market slowdown.

Iran’s secret plan to escalate the war

Intelligence suggest a strategic shift by hard-line leaders to raise the costs for the U.S. and its regional allies

By Benoit Faucon & Summer Said

Tehran's Hard-Line Strategy After President Trump signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran in mid-June, administration officials fanned out to build support for an agreement they hoped would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and start winding down the war. Iran’s hard-line leaders huddled in Tehran and came up with a different plan, according to Iranian and Arab officials. In their view, the pact was likely just an attempt by the U.S. and Israel to take pressure off the global economy and buy time for a bigger attack down the road. Instead of putting faith in talks, they took the past two months to prepare for a bigger fight.

Their efforts include giving the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) more control of the country’s regular army, appointing hardened veterans of the war with Iraq and past internal crackdowns to key posts, expanding domestic counterintelligence operations, and ramping up production of missiles and drones. The leadership quickly seized the initiative, attacking ships to tighten Iran’s grip on Hormuz and expanding the battlefield to the Red Sea, which Saudi Arabia has used to get around Iran’s chokehold on the Persian Gulf.

Arab intelligence officials have picked up evidence—including communications between Iran and militia allies in countries such as Yemen and Iraq—of a strategic shift inside the country’s hard-line leadership to get their forces ready to widen the war and raise the costs for the U.S., officials familiar with the findings say. Alarming weaker Gulf countries like Kuwait, Iran’s leaders are increasingly talking about offensive operations on enemy territory. Their overriding goal is to inflict enough pain to ensure the kind of attacks Iran has endured during the continuing conflict are not repeated.

Diverging Perceptions of War “There is also a widespread view in Iran that the main war has not yet begun,” said Mohammad Hassan Sangtarash, a Tehran-based defense analyst close to the Iranian government. “What we have seen so far is increasingly interpreted through the lens of ‘salami-slicing’ tactics—limited, incremental escalation designed to weaken capabilities before a larger confrontation.” The Iranian preparations point to an enormous gulf between how Washington and Tehran are perceiving this stage of the war. This divergence has driven a hard-line negotiating stance and reluctance to close deals by Iran’s leaders.

Iran’s readiness to fight also highlights a deep lack of trust that is likely to keep the two sides from reaching a durable deal to end the conflict any time soon. While pragmatic members of the leadership, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, have warned that Iran needs a deal to end the war and gain sanctions relief or face economic collapse, the country is rebuilding its infrastructure and restoring access to missile bases much more quickly than expected. For the regime, “the baseline is war,” said Alan Eyre, a former senior U.S. diplomat and nuclear negotiator with Iran. “Iran will remain on a wartime footing, preparing for a subsequent attack.”

The Breakdown of the Memorandum When Trump signed the memorandum of understanding with Iran on June 17, it looked like the biggest hurdle would be convincing American critics it wasn't overly generous. The deal promised sanctions waivers and access to billions in frozen cash; in return, Iran was to open the Strait of Hormuz and negotiate in good faith on its nuclear program. However, when Iran started shooting at ships the U.S. was guiding through the strait in early July, it caught Washington by surprise.

In fact, Iran was pursuing a two-track policy. While diplomats pursued a peace deal, leader Mojtaba Khamenei was taking steps to prepare the security apparatus for an expanded confrontation. The Revolutionary Guard used the calm created by the memorandum to lay groundwork with allied militias, sending advisers to Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon. Intelligence showed the IRGC sending commanders to Houthi-controlled areas to plan a stepped-up confrontation with Saudi Arabia, providing them with target lists including Saudi ports and energy facilities.

Escalation and Internal Reorganization The result was fighting that escalated through late July, with Houthis declaring the Bab al-Mandeb Strait closed to Saudi Arabia and launching drone attacks on its oil facilities. The IRGC threatened Gulf states it would destroy their energy facilities if the U.S. hit similar sites in Iran. Iran also escalated attacks on American troops, including firing five ballistic missiles at Jordan during a lull in the conflict. “We took full advantage of the ceasefire period,” Revolutionary Guard spokesman Brig. Gen. Hossein Mohebbi stated, noting enhanced capabilities and improved missile accuracy.

Behind the scenes, Supreme Leader Khamenei positioned his forces for a more aggressive fight, lining up seven key security leaders to run revamped military and repression institutions. These appointments aimed at tightening the military chain of command and turning ideological militias into neighborhood intelligence agencies. For instance, Mohsen Rezaei was named secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, and veteran Hossein Taeb returned to lead the Basij as a “popular intelligence network.”

Future Risks and Confident Demands The Revolutionary Guard has devised new plans for further escalation, including pre-emptive strikes and potential ground operations in Kuwait. In early May, Kuwaiti security forces intercepted six IRGC troops who had landed on a Kuwaiti island. Some Gulf officials say it is clear the IRGC hasn’t been defeated or deterred, and its hold on Hormuz has strengthened its regional position.

While mediators said Iranian diplomats agreed to a deal with Oman to gradually reopen Hormuz, those efforts were blocked by the Revolutionary Guard. As negotiations remain blocked, Iran’s leaders are slipping into a survival economy aimed at holding out. Strategic adviser Mehdi Mohammadi described the current stalemate as the “calm before the storm,” citing a “generational project for blood vengeance” for the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the opening strikes of the war. “Iran is prepared for the great confrontation,” Mohammadi warned.

China’s economic woes mount with disappointing start to half

Bloomberg

China’s economy got off to a sluggish start in the second half, reviving pressure to support growth as industrial output, consumption and investment all fared worse than forecast.

Key Economic Indicators for July:

• Industrial output expanded 4.5% from a year earlier, slowing for the first time in three months and missing estimates.
• Retail sales growth slowed to 0.6%, underperforming expectations.
• Fixed-asset investment fell at a pace of 6.7% year-on-year in the first seven months.
• The surveyed urban jobless rate rose to 5.2% from 5% in June.
• Passenger vehicle purchases fell 21% in July, a worrying sign for the auto sector, which is the largest goods component in retail sales.

July’s figures suggest that GDP growth likely decelerated to around 4.1%, falling below the 4.3% needed for Beijing to reach its annual growth target. Lackluster domestic demand and disruptions caused by extreme weather—including heavy rainfall and strong winds that temporarily shut factories—are setting back an economy already weakened by months of fiscal austerity. While exports have been booming, momentum appears to have weakened further at the start of August.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) stated that while the economy has remained "stable" this year, the external environment is "complicated and volatile". The NBS acknowledged that domestic demand remains weak and that some companies are facing operational difficulties, noting that the foundation for economic stabilization "still needs to be consolidated".

A major factor weighing on household confidence is China’s ongoing property slump, which shows no signs of ending. New-home prices dropped at a faster clip in July, and real estate investment plunged 19.2% year-on-year in the first seven months, marking a fresh record low.

Jobless rate up in urban areas, down overall in Jul

By Subhash Narayan

NEW DELHI: India’s unemployment rate declined to 5.1% in July compared to 5.5% in June, as a marginal rise in joblessness in urban areas was compensated by a sharp easing of the rural unemployment rate.

According to the Periodic Labour Force Survey Monthly Bulletin (PLFS-M) released by the ministry of statistics and programme implementation on Monday:

• Urban Unemployment: The rate for those aged 15 years and above in urban areas rose to 6.7% in July from 6.6% in the previous month. This was driven primarily by an increase in the unemployment rate among females.
• Rural Unemployment: This segment witnessed a sharper easing, falling to 4.5% in July from a high of 5% in June. The male unemployment rate in rural areas fell from 4.9% to 4.6%, while female unemployment dropped from 5% to 4.3%.

Year-on-Year Comparison Compared with July 2025, the urban unemployment rate improved, falling from 7.2% to 6.7%. While the overall unemployment rate eased over the year, the rural unemployment rate saw a modest increase from 4.4% in July 2025 to 4.5% in July 2026.

The broken promise of education in India

Government spending on education has shrunk, and Indian families are footing an ever-growing bill for uncertain returns

By Sayantan Bera

Last month, a physics teacher at a government school in Delhi received a call from a former top student, 18-year-old Yashvardhan Kumar Mishra, that highlighted the distressing state of Indian education. Despite scoring in the 92nd percentile on the NEET exam, Mishra could not secure an affordable seat in a government medical college, as those require scores in the top 1%. Faced with private college fees exceeding ₹1 crore, Mishra is now entering his second "drop year" to attempt the exam again, a high-stakes gamble driven by a lack of viable alternatives.

A System of Exclusion During recent protests at Delhi’s Jantar Mantar, sparked by paper leaks, Gen Z youth and their parents voiced a growing sense of helplessness regarding sky-high education costs and stagnant job prospects. For families from middle- and low-income backgrounds, the hurdle is doubled by the need for expensive private coaching—Mishra's father, a garment sampling technologist, has already spent over ₹10 lakh on an elder son who earned a B.Tech but remains unemployed due to an "AI storm" impacting entry-level IT jobs.

The senior Mishra blames the state for abdicating its responsibilities. A Mint analysis reveals that Union government spending on school and higher education has nearly halved as a percentage of GDP over the last 15 years, falling to just 0.34%.

Falling Returns and Economic Insecurity The State of Working India 2026 Report by Azim Premji University provides empirical evidence of this crisis:

• Unemployment: Over 39% of young graduates (under 25) were unemployed in 2023, a sharper crisis than the 35% seen in 1983.
• Stagnant Earnings: Annual real earnings growth for male graduates (aged 20–29) was -0.8% between 2011 and 2017, compared to 3.4% growth between 2004 and 2011.

Venu Madhav Govindu, a professor at the Indian Institute of Science, notes that the state has ceded space to an "extractive and unaffordable" private sector, leaving the pathway to mind enrichment closed to all but an affluent minority.

"Reservation for the Rich" The crisis is particularly visible in medical education. According to the National Medical Council, India has 136,939 undergraduate medical seats, with more in private colleges (73,643) than government institutes (63,296). Educationist Maheshwer Peri argues that while the entrance system may be "transparent," it is not fair. Private seats essentially act as a "reservation for the rich," admitting students from wealthy families who can pay ₹1 crore even with low percentile scores. Meanwhile, government infrastructure struggles with a 37% vacancy rate in teaching posts across 20 AIIMS campuses.

Stifled Aspirations For those like Abhishek Kumar, the son of a marginal farmer from Sasaram, Bihar, engineering and medical dreams were never even on the radar. After his family spent ₹2 lakh on his sister’s unsuccessful bid for the civil services, Kumar scaled down his own goals to Group-B and Group-C government officer tests, for which online coaching is more affordable at ₹1,000 per month.

Sociologist Amman Madan points out that only about 15% of the relevant age group even makes it to the Class XII examination. He observes that roughly 85% of India is not even getting the chance to apply for vocational courses, let alone live up to their fullest potential, as they struggle against terrible odds to convert their talent into "merit".

Dovish inflation views: their supply may exceed takers

By Madan Sabnavis

One of the more complex concepts in economics is inflation, even though it simply refers to an increase in prices. When we say inflation has come down from, say, 6% to 2%, it means the rate of change of prices has come down, but prices are still going up. If prices fell across the board, it would reduce the incentive of producers to produce goods and services.

The Malleability of Interpretation The interpretation of inflation has had a distinct touch of malleability. Of late, there has been a tendency to argue that inflation is up only because of certain goods and services, excluding which would make the number less bothersome. However, the same argument is not put forth when inflation declines. A sharp fall in prices of pulses or vegetables, for example, can cool inflation. There exists a school which always argues that inflation is low; even when high, ‘momentum’ was tossed in, which simply meant looking at month-on-month change.

An argument often advanced is that inflation is due to supply pressures. True, if food prices go up, it is usually because of a supply shortfall or minimum support prices hiked by the government. If fuel prices rise, then it is because fuel retailers have raised prices, usually done in response to an oil squeeze. Even core inflation (which strips out food and fuel) or ‘core-core’ inflation (which excludes gold) can be attributed to supply factors. For instance, healthcare inflation rises due to higher prices charged by overloaded hospitals, and personal products get costlier when companies raise prices to cover costs driven up by input scarcities.

Supply vs. Demand Rarely is inflation caused solely by a demand surge, as companies plan production in line with sales projections that tend to show stable growth. The argument that supply factors are the primary cause is also ingenuous because all product categories have different reasons for price mark-ups. In the food basket, high overall production of tur daal can drive down prices, while localized tomato crop damage can make it dearer. The best we can do is track a weighted basket of items without leaving out ‘supply hit’ products.

Furthermore, the famous base effect has been cited frequently this year to justify lower interest rates. As inflation was 2.1% last year, some argue it will not be much of a burden this year. But when it was 2.1%, few noted it was low because of a higher rate (4.6%) the previous year.

Perception vs. Reality While there can be a debate on these issues, the practical reality is that the consumer price index is designed to gauge inflation for consumers. The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) inflation perception survey shows interesting results:

• In 2025-26, when official inflation averaged 2.1%, consumer perception placed it at 7.1%.
• In the first quarter of this fiscal year, average inflation was 3.9%, but perceptual inflation reached 7.7%.

While inflation doves "splice and dice" data to show it is not a problem, the story at the household level differs. Higher food bills have left less money for discretionary consumption, leading several companies to lower the grammage of their products, a practice known as ‘shrinkflation’.

An interesting point concerns senior citizens, who hold almost half the term deposits in India. For them, what matters is cumulative inflation over the tenure of their deposits, as that erodes purchasing power. This was almost 19% over the four post-covid years, which helps explain why so many companies have been lamenting weak demand. Ultimately, the regulatory target is headline retail inflation, and while doves abound who argue price instability isn't a problem, the case they make is unconvincing.

Madan Sabnavis is chief economist, Bank of Baroda, and author of ‘Corporate Quirks: The Darker Side of the Sun’.

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AI is helping patients solve medical mysteries

Patients, doctors and nurses are turning to the technology for help in identifying rare and undiagnosed diseases.

By Alex Janin

Patients with rare diseases often spend five years or more searching for a diagnosis. Now, artificial intelligence is helping some of them get answers faster.

Rachel Hinken long wondered why her son, Oliver, was missing key growth milestones, including speech and walking delays. At age 10, he was not more than four feet tall, and doctors consistently told her he would "catch up". Unconvinced, Hinken uploaded a picture of Oliver into Face2Gene, an AI-assisted app designed to help healthcare professionals identify rare conditions.

The app suggested trichorhinophalangeal syndrome (TRPS), a condition that can cause bone or joint issues leading to pain and movement problems. "I have been a little slackjawed a couple of times by the difference AI has made," said Dr. Sarah Diekman, a specialist in nervous-system disorders. She noted that patients who identified conditions like POTS (postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome) with the help of AI chatbots are now coming to her within months of their first symptoms, whereas others may have waited 50 years for a diagnosis.

Fidji Simo, the former CEO of Instacart, has also been public about her battle with POTS. She believes today’s AI tools would have helped her get a diagnosis much faster than the nine months it originally took. Simo has used ChatGPT to analyze her whole-genome sequencing results and brainstorm potential tests to discuss with her doctor. She has since founded a new company focused on researching the biological drivers of such conditions.

Patterns and Accuracy

AI is particularly effective at finding patterns, such as links between physical features in medical imaging and descriptions in medical literature. This can be a significant aid in rural or non-specialty clinics where doctors may be encountering a rare disease for the first time.

A study published in a JAMA journal last year found that two AI chatbots correctly suggested the right diagnosis in 13% and 10% of 90 complex rare-disease cases. In comparison, doctors who reviewed the same patients’ medical records suggested the correct diagnosis in only 5.6% of cases.

Real-World Impact at the Clinic

Michael Ames, a nurse practitioner at Mayo Clinic, used an FDA-cleared AI tool to help diagnose Mike Busch, a 77-year-old patient who suspected he had pneumonia. The AI interpreted Busch’s electrocardiogram and suggested a 98% probability of cardiac amyloidosis, a rare and serious heart disease. Further imaging confirmed the diagnosis. “If it wasn’t for AI, I might have been treated for something else,” Busch said. “Maybe I wouldn’t be here, who knows?”.

Limits and Challenges

Despite these successes, doctors caution that the technology has limits. Dr. Xiao P. Peng, a clinical geneticist, noted that AI tools still make mistakes and are currently better at generating leads or translating complex medical jargon than making definitive diagnoses. “For data synthesis, there has to be a manual human role,” she added.

A major hurdle is that AI is only as good as the data it is trained on. Because rare diseases have fewer data points—such as case records and tissue samples—the models can be less accurate than those for common conditions. To address this, Dr. Matthew G. Hanna helped develop ScanVan, a mobile unit that travels to hospitals to pull and digitize archive data to build better AI models.

Industry and Nonprofit Moves

The private sector is increasingly moving into this space:

• Anthropic announced plans to fund biotech research to speed up rare disease diagnosis using its flagship product, Claude.
• Consulting firm ZS built a tool for drugmakers that successfully screened patients for myasthenia gravis, a rare neuromuscular disorder.
• Danielle Carnival, CEO of the Undiagnosed Diseases Network Foundation, noted that while AI can help patients organize records and find specialists, it could also create "more confusion" if it produces information without a clear, accurate path forward.

Why India Inc is retaining more of its profits

By T. Surendar

What’s happening with dividend payouts?

Dividend payouts by BSE 500 companies rose 8.2% year-on-year to ₹5.13 trillion in fiscal year 2026 (FY26) from ₹4.74 trillion paid in the year before. However, the growth in dividend payouts has slowed from 11.9% in FY25 and 9.6% in FY24. More significantly, dividends as a share of net profit fell to 27.6% in FY26 from 30.4% in FY25 and 36.5% in FY23. The ratio is now at its lowest in 12 years, well below its 12-year average of about 35.5%. The record number is, therefore, slightly deceptive: India Inc is paying more dividends in rupee terms, but returning a smaller proportion of the profits it earns overall.

So, have investors got less money?

Not really. Investors received ₹5.13 trillion in dividends in FY26, the highest in the period covered by the analysis. However, the growth in dividends has lagged behind the growth in profits. A company can increase its dividend while reducing its payout ratio if profits grow faster than the dividend. That is what has happened across much of corporate India. The BSE 500 payout ratio fell to 27.6% in FY26 from 30.4% in FY25 and 36.5% in FY23, after touching a high of 50.9% in FY20. Companies are paying shareholders more, but keeping an even bigger share of what they earn.

So, why did firms raise payouts until now?

Partly due to the long absence of a broad-based private sector capex cycle. After the deleveraging cycle of 2013-20, firms spent years fixing balance sheets rather than adding capacity. Even as profits recovered after the pandemic, investment did not quickly follow. According to Ambit Capital, corporate debt-to-equity ratios fell from about 68% in FY20 to 39% in FY25. With subdued risk appetite and capex, firms returned surplus cash via dividends and buybacks. Payouts, thus, reflected not just shareholder friendliness but a lack of robust investment scope.

How are companies using the spare cash?

Some cash is going into capex, buybacks, and stronger balance sheets, but not yet into a broad-based investment boom. An analysis of 3,243 listed firms shows a 13.5% CAGR for FY23-26 capex. Yet, the top 10 corporate houses accounted for about 61% of listed capex. Ambit noted that dividend/buyback was favoured over greenfield expansion amid stagnant capacity use and hazy demand. New projects made for only 15% of GDP versus 35% in FY03-12. Questions remain over whether higher profit retention signals sustained investments.

Which sectors paid out more, and who squeezed?

IT remains among the most generous sectors as its model brings in significant cash without comparable capex requirements. The BSE 500’s top six payers' share was about 26%, with Tata Consultancy Services at 8%. This contrasts with sectors entering an investment cycle: power had a 36% share of new listed capex in FY23-FY26, while auto stood at 9% and telecom at 8%. Capex needs spur profit retention.

Dividend payout as a share of profits (in %)

• 2025-26: 27.6%
• 2024-25: 30.4%
• 2023-24: 30.0%
• 2022-23: 36.5%
• 2021-22: 32.2%
• 2020-21: 40.0%
• 2019-20: 50.9%
• 2018-19: 34.9%
• 2017-18: 40.4%
• 2016-17: 36.6%
• 2015-16: 38.2%
• 2014-15: 34.6%

India at 80: Time to confront the issues it is facing

By Shashi Shekhar

After the Independence Day euphoria, let’s now ponder the complex issues facing the nation. What are they?

Let me take you back to the Uttar Pradesh of the 1960s. My generation was born in this fateful decade. Our democratic values were strengthened after two general elections were held, and many epoch-making initiatives were launched.

The childhood memories of boats plying in the vast expanse of the Ganges are still fresh. Cities, at that time, didn’t have electricity for hours, and most of the villages were without electricity. During this time, India suffered catastrophic droughts and famines.

I have a vivid recollection of ‘ration shops’ that would shut before many in the long queues could secure their ration. In that decade, India and Pakistan got into a war. The exemplary bravery of our soldiers assuaged, to some extent, our deep hurt and ignominy of the defeat at the hands of the Chinese three years before.

Legendary prime minister Jawahar Lal Nehru too passed away during the decade. His successor, Lal Bahadur Shastri, had a short-lived tenure. Indira Gandhi’s ascent was the result of the untimely death of Shastri. The tradition of dynastic politics can be traced to this event. In those times, Dalits couldn’t fetch water from many wells and lakes, and couldn’t ride a horse during their wedding.

Muslims were relatively better placed but were weighed down by the unnecessary guilt of the Partition. The country got its first Muslim president and, till now, the only woman prime minister in the same decade. During the same decade, the impact of other backward castes on the politics of southern states signaled a change in future political equations.

Baby steps were taken in the field of sports, education, technology and science. At the 1960 Rome Olympics, Milkha Singh won hearts, though he failed to secure a medal. It was the golden era of hockey and football. In cricket, India defeated New Zealand under the able leadership of Mansoor Ali Khan Pataudi. It was the time when the Indian Institutes of Management (IIMs) were established. The first rocket was fired from Thumba space centre, and then the Indian Space Research Organisation came into existence and landmark progress was made in nuclear energy, along with the initiation of the historic Green Revolution. Today, India is on its way to becoming an economic superpower, but disparities remain.

Great progress has been made in the field of access to electricity, health and education. But there’s still a wide chasm between government data and the ground reality. We have the world’s largest pool of graduates, but 45% of them are unable to secure jobs commensurate with their degrees.

Even nature seems to be adversely disposed towards us. It’s monsoon season, but 26 rivers in Bihar are almost dry. Reports from Uttarakhand suggest it has lost 25% of its forest cover. On the eve of Independence Day, while I write these lines, 14 people are battling for life, becoming victims of debris flow in a tunnel in Chamoli.

In such times, I am reminded of those small towns where I grew up. Though electricity or tap water wasn’t available in every house, rain didn’t lead to deadly waterlogging either. While villages are emptying out, tier-II and III towns are growing at a breakneck speed.

If we need to maintain our demographic balance, we need to take employment opportunities back to the villages. Like border security, we need to ensure social and environmental security with equal sensitivity. Since the economic liberalization of 1991, we have tried to turn Bharat into ‘India’, leading to growing economic inequality.

But there’s no need for pessimism. We know how to move ahead, breaking the chains of our helplessness and adversities. Many dynasties came and became a part of us. Foreign rule came and went. We learned from everyone and internalized those teachings.

Getting stuck isn’t India or Indianness. Today, those born in the 1960s, now in the sixth decade of their lives, take joy in the fact that we are still a young nation. Opportunities, energy and youth are complementary. But we will start ageing in the next decade. Three decades from now, India will have more older people than young. Are we ready to face that challenge? We’ll need to think about it today. We will have to think about how we can bring along those who are left behind. And how to get rid of those blocking our future progress.

There can be no better use of the initial days of the 80th year of our Independence.

Themes in Modi’s Independence Day speeches over the years

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Independence Day speech on Saturday, August 15, 2026, was his 13th such address. Over the years, he has highlighted various topics, showing how key themes have progressed from basic infrastructure to advanced technology.

Toilets to semiconductors

• 2014: “Can’t we just make arrangements for toilets for the dignity of our mothers and sisters?”.
• 2026: In today’s technology-driven era, chips are indispensable for everything from medical equipment to transportation. Bharat has begun establishing its own semiconductor manufacturing capacity to become self-reliant and ensure global systems do not come to a standstill.

Rural roads, satellites, artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing

• 2016: Modi noted that rural citizens continued to crave for pucca roads.
• 2018: Indian scientists astonished the world by launching more than 100 satellites in one go.
• 2025: Plans were announced for the Aatmanirbhar Bharat Gaganyaan and building an independent space station.
• 2026: Technology has shifted to the age of AI, quantum technology, robotics, and data centres. India must not merely be a market for the world but must become a hub of innovation.

Fighting poverty

• 2014: Modi argued that if Indians could remove a massive empire without government power or weapons, they could surely defeat poverty.
• 2026: The vision for a developed India requires development to reach the last person. In the last decade, social security cover has expanded from 25 crore to 100 crore people.

Startup India

• 2015: The Prime Minister resolved to launch “Startup India” and “Standup India” to provide strength to new ventures.
• 2016: He called for startups to be initiated in every district and block of the country.
• 2026: Many avenues have opened, with private startups led by young people (average age 28) successfully launching their own satellites and rockets on the first trial.

Manufacturing/technology self-reliance

• 2014: The “Come, Make in India” call was issued for sectors ranging from electronics and automobiles to satellites and submarines.
• 2025: Modi predicted that ‘Made in India’ chips would be available in the market by the end of 2025.
• 2026: India must own the entire value chain, from design to manufacturing, to emerge as a trusted hub in the global supply chain.

Internet connectivity

• 2015: Modi envisioned broadband connecting all villages to allow remote schools to access high-quality education.
• 2026: The number of internet users has increased fourfold, and the goal is now to ensure Made-in-India 6G reaches the entire world.

From bank accounts to UPI and global fintech dominance

• 2015: He noted that 60 years after independence, 40% of the population still lacked bank accounts, with bank doors closed to the poor.
• 2025: India’s UPI platform now handles 50% of the world's real-time transactions, surprising the global community.

Chinese firms open doors for Mahindra's global push

Company’s improved safety ratings, cleaner powertrains expand its addressable markets

By Ayaan Kartik

The rapid expansion of Chinese carmakers could turn out to be an unlikely tailwind for Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd's global ambitions. Their entry into established markets has made consumers more open to newer brands, while Mahindra’s improved safety ratings and cleaner powertrain portfolio are giving it access to markets that were earlier out of reach, according to a top executive.

As the company draws up a list of international markets for expansion, Mahindra’s automotive division chief executive Nalinikanth Gollagunta told Mint that the company is now able to target geographies it earlier couldn't owing to evolving market dynamics. He said that the company’s improved safety ratings and a cleaner powertrain portfolio have expanded its addressable markets, allowing it to meet fuel efficiency regulations and sell both electric vehicles (EV) and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles there.

Target Markets

The company has marked out South Africa, the UK, Australia, New Zealand and Latin American countries, including Brazil, as it evaluates an expansion using new pickup trucks and passenger vehicles. On customer appetite, Gollagunta said the success of Chinese brands in a market is an important indicator of whether they are willing to consider newer carmakers.

“The interesting thing we found is that markets that have very established brands today are open, thanks to the Chinese. So, the Chinese have gone in and softened our market,” Gollagunta explained. “If you can look at five Chinese [brands], you can look at one Indian,” he said, adding that some developed markets such as the US are still very restricted.

Over the past few years, Chinese carmakers like BYD, Saic and Chery have entered and expanded across several markets in Africa, South America and Europe.

Strategic Shifts

Mahindra is studying all major markets as assumptions on fuel technologies, safety ratings, and regulations have changed. Gollagunta noted that CAFE (corporate average fuel efficiency) norms make it tough to enter certain markets without a global EV to accompany the lineup. “Now I have a global EV which helps me sell an ICE vehicle,” he said.

The company recently unveiled its new Scorpio Lifestyler pickup truck, which it will use to target South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, and Latin America. Gollagunta stated that Mahindra will look for segments where it can play to its strengths, specifically its "SUV DNA" and technology.

Growth and Consolidation

The group, led by chief executive officer (CEO) Anish Shah, is pursuing a two-pronged strategy for its pickup trucks: expanding in global markets while increasing volumes in the domestic market. In its latest offensive, the company is relying on its own products rather than acquisitions or joint ventures.

Mahindra's export push will also include EVs such as the BE 6 and XEV 9e, along with vehicles built on its new platform, Nu IQ, starting next year. The company also plans to leverage India's free trade agreement with the UK for exports.

While Mahindra rose to the number two position in the Indian market in financial year 2026—replacing Hyundai Motor India—its global footprint in passenger vehicles remains limited. Gollagunta emphasized that the company will extensively study each market before committing to a launch, stating, “If we do it, we want to win”.

Over the past five years, Mahindra has exited several joint ventures and businesses in the commercial and passenger vehicle space, including those with Ssangyong Motors, Mitsubishi Mahindra Agricultural Machinery Co, and Sampo Rosenlew.

Israel strikes Lebanon as US-Iran ceasefire agreement nears end

Israel also continues to clash with Hamas operatives in Gaza in addition to Hezbollah.

By Bloomberg

Lebanon saw its deadliest day of fighting in months as Iran and the US appeared to be at a standstill in negotiations ahead of the Monday expiration of their ceasefire agreement. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said on Sunday that it killed Abu Hassan Alaa, a senior Hezbollah commander, in southern Lebanon a day earlier. A total of 11 people died in the Israeli strikes—including several children—making them the deadliest since the sides agreed to a ceasefire at the beginning of June.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated the strikes were in retaliation for a Hezbollah attack that injured three soldiers early Saturday. Israel further warned on Sunday it would strike the Iranian proxy group again if it felt threatened. The fighting on the periphery of the Iran war may further complicate deadlocked negotiations between Washington and Tehran ahead of the nominal end of their own June ceasefire on Monday; Iran has long argued that Israeli attacks on Lebanon violate the agreement.

Deadlock over the Strait of Hormuz

Central to the stalled talks is control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas transited before the war. Iran and Oman appear to be finalizing a “shipping map” to govern traffic in the strait, but the US is not involved in those talks and is unlikely to agree to terms that do not restore free passage. Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said an agreement with Oman would not necessarily translate into the strait’s reopening and is separate from discussions with the US. Although Iran is in contact with mediators from Qatar and Pakistan, Araghchi stated on Saturday, “We have not yet made a decision to resume negotiations with the US.”

Economic Impact and Attacks on Shipping

The price of Brent crude rose almost 6% last week as a number of vessels were attacked in and around the strait, dashing hopes of a quick resolution to the impasse.

• On Saturday, a projectile struck the hull of a bulk carrier.
• Two Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. vessels were struck while transiting Hormuz on Thursday and Friday.
• These incidents follow roughly 65 confirmed attacks on vessels in the strait since early March, resulting in at least 17 deaths.

President Donald Trump, facing a shortfall of munitions and domestic opposition, is readying new economic measures to force Tehran to capitulate. Trump stated on Friday that he plans to hit Iran’s economy hard and described a US blockade of Iranian ports as a “wall of steel.” He even remarked, “Pretty soon I’ll be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States.”

Wider Regional Conflict

The conflict continues to expand as Israel remains engaged with Hamas operatives in Gaza and faces attacks from the Houthis in the Red Sea, both of which are backed by Iran. The clashes between Hezbollah and Israel threaten to derail a US-brokered ceasefire that provides for Hezbollah’s disarmament and the eventual withdrawal of the IDF from occupied territory, to be replaced by the Lebanese army.

Additionally, tensions between Iran and Qatar have surfaced. Iran’s state-run IRNA reported that Doha has barred an Iranian delegation from investigating the fate of three pilots who crashed in Qatar earlier in the war. Qatar has categorically denied these claims, expressing surprise at the “misleading statements” during ongoing de-escalation efforts.

Why South cinema’s biggest stars are flopping

Chasing national scale has alienated local audiences. Can South Indian cinema reset itself?

By Lata Jha

Nobody knew how to react this January when Uppalapati Venkata Suryanarayana Prabhas Raju’s horror comedy, The Raja Saab, hit screens for the big Sankranti weekend. Despite releasing during the most lucrative window in South India, the film, budgeted at over ₹400 crore, opened to empty halls and was considered "dead on arrival," grossing a little over ₹200 crore worldwide. Prabhas, who became a household name after the Baahubali franchise, has suffered a string of recent flops including Radhe Shyam and Adipurush. Fans have criticized his recent work for "lazy" screenplays and a heavy reliance on body doubles.

Prabhas is not alone; the tide is turning for the entire South movie industry. Established stars like Rajinikanth, Kamal Haasan, Chiranjeevi, Ram Charan, Ajith, and Suriya are either failing to deliver previous returns or hitting a box office ceiling. This is a defining moment for a region that has long embraced a strong culture of star worship.

The Pan-India Slowdown

The "pan-India" wave, which sought to monetize Southern films in the Hindi belt, has slowed down. Experts believe the Telugu industry has alienated its loyal home turf by focusing on films designed for Northern audiences. Filmmaker Uma Vangal noted that recent releases by RRR stars Ram Charan (Peddi) and Jr NTR (Devara) both "fizzled out," signaling the end of the pan-India "excursion" due to repetitive products. There is a growing call for stars to return to stories rooted in the cultural context of their own soil.

Attendance and Revenue Trends

Data from Ormax Media reveals a steep drop in theatre attendance across South India in 2025:

• Telugu cinema: Footfalls fell to 181 million, down from 213 million in 2024 and 242 million in 2023.
• Tamil cinema: Experienced a sharper decline of over 15%, dropping to 160 million admissions—its lowest non-pandemic figure since 2016.
• Market Share: Out of ₹13,395 crore made at the domestic box office in 2025, Telugu cinema’s share fell to 18% (from 20% in 2024) and Tamil films fell to 13% (from 15%).

While early 2026 figures show a 22% surge for Telugu cinema, trade experts attribute this to small and mid-budget films rather than major star vehicles.

Barriers to Success

Several factors are deterring audiences:

• High Ticket Pricing: Success in Northern markets pushed distributors to inflate rates in the price-sensitive South. For Pushpa 2: The Rule, prices ranged from ₹500 to ₹3,000, frustrating fans. Average ticket prices in Southern languages rose by over 20% in 2025.
• OTT Windows: Many films are available to stream within four weeks of theatrical release, making the cinema proposition less valuable. Some films, like Peddi, found more "real life" and reach on OTT platforms than in theatres.
• Creative Shifts: Critics argue that stars are trapped in violent, hyper-masculine narratives designed to rival Bollywood "nationalist" films, leading to a lack of regional connect.

The Way Forward

The industry's future may hinge on three key resets:

1. Fresh Talent: Success now depends on whether new faces like Pradeep Ranganathan, Dhruv Vikram, and Manikandan can sustain momentum.
2. Revenue Sharing: Top stars often command outsized upfront fees exceeding ₹100 crore regardless of performance. There is a push for leading actors to move toward revenue-sharing models to manage rational budgets.
3. OTT Standoff: Exhibitors want an eight-week window to protect theatre revenue, while producers argue that delaying digital revenue by a month can make mid-budget films unviable. Experts suggest a tiered arrangement where the window flexes based on the film's scale.

Ultimately, experts believe star power alone is no longer enough; a strong storyline has become the real draw as viewers now have the option to wait for OTT releases.

Seven streams of effort: Modi’s new call to action

OUR VIEW

Successive prime ministers of India have used their Independence Day speech to outline the successes of their respective governments and lay out challenges. In the case of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, his speeches have not only featured important policy announcements, like the Swachh Bharat Mission launched in 2014, but also his government’s vision for the economy and plans to realize it. His address on Saturday unveiled a seven-point agenda to speed up India’s efforts to become a developed country, or Viksit Bharat, by 2047. The “sapta dhaara”—or seven streams—he named are apparently inspired by the “sapta Sindhu,” a reference to seven ancient rivers whose waters held the vital energy for prosperity.

The streams now in focus are:

• The domestic manufacturing sector.
• Agriculture and food processing.
• Technology.
• Gati Shakti—or infrastructure for logistics.
• Self-reliance in defence.
• India’s green and blue economies.
• The country’s soft power.

This emphasis is not new, with some of these areas of focus having been outlined earlier, such as the ‘Make in India’ programme intended to turn the country into a factory for the world. Similarly, the Gati Shakti initiative was launched earlier to overhaul India’s logistics infrastructure—from ports and airports to roads and highways—to help manufacturers compete in all accessible markets. This streamlined list of priorities hints at which way public funds will flow in the years ahead. As open markets like America’s begin to retreat behind tariff walls and globalization suffers geopolitical reversals, India must rely on itself for key enablers of its economic emergence.

The same logic applies to national security and autonomy amid US-China rivalry. In technology and innovation, India’s stakes are high as these increasingly underpin value generation. All this must go with climate action, so the green use of clean energy and blue-sky hunt for new resources assume priority. As for soft power, broadly defined as global influence exerted by everything other than the force of arms, the concept has been gaining salience as a policy aim, with the global promotion of yoga cited as an example.

Other notable initiatives highlighted by Modi include a drive to train 10 million youth in artificial intelligence (AI) and a plan to provide free online coaching for students. While the latter seems like a response to last month’s student protests, the sources suggest the long-term aim must be to improve the formal education system so that third-party coaching is not required at all. Broadly speaking, all seven streams would need tributaries of human talent for them to sparkle, meaning education has a vital role to play in each endeavor.

Dude, where’s my recession? The US economy isn’t in the clear yet

Various factors have helped America defy gloomy predictions but that doesn’t mean the risk of shrunken output has receded.

By Barry Eichengreen

Exhibiting an apparently limitless ability to shrug off bad news, the US economy continues to motor ahead. Real or inflation-adjusted GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.1% in the first quarter of this year and, according to an advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, by 1.5% in the second quarter. Both figures are close to the US Federal Reserve’s own estimate of the economy’s long-run potential growth rate of 2%.

The economy has appeared resilient despite an exceptional series of adverse shocks, from the April 2025 ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs and ongoing tariff uncertainty to US President Donald Trump’s political attacks on the Fed. Meanwhile, US-China tensions have depressed bilateral trade and investment; the US war against Iran has led to on-again, off-again closures of the Strait of Hormuz and spiking oil prices; and the Russia-Ukraine war has increasingly disrupted Russian energy supplies and refining capacity. Topping it all off, global bond, equity and foreign-exchange markets have suffered multiple shocks just in the past few weeks.

So, what explains the resilience? Although Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs ranged as high as 50%, his administration soon made multiple tariff exceptions, exemptions and reversals, bringing the effective US tariff rate down to 10-15%, on average, over the last year. While not favourable, this lower level is at least manageable. The tariff-related uncertainty has been considerable, of course. An index of trade-policy uncertainty reached its highest level on record after Trump’s Liberation Day press conference. Yet, with an import-to-GDP ratio of only 14%, the US economy was already relatively closed. Whatever the damaging effects of tariff uncertainty, they were always going to be less severe than for more open economies.

Similarly, the share of US imports coming from China has declined to barely 7%, but it had already fallen from over 20% to under 14% in the decade ending in 2024. After surpassing $100 billion at its peak in 2016, Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in the US has evaporated completely. Despite these trends, the negative impact on the US economy has been minimized by a rerouting of Chinese exports via Vietnam and Mexico, and by America’s continued success at attracting FDI from other sources, notably Germany and Japan.

Then there is the latest energy shock. Crude oil futures spiked from $60 per barrel at the beginning of 2026 to above $100. They are now in the region of $80 and will continue to fluctuate along with prospects for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. More importantly, the ‘crack spread,’ or the cost difference between crude oil and refined products, has tripled since the start of 2026. Still, the adverse effect has been limited because the US economy is less energy intensive now than in the past, owing to a broader shift in economic activity towards services.

Finally, insofar as these factors have dampened US economic growth, their negative impact has been offset by strong investment in artificial intelligence (AI)-related data centres, software, and research and development, as well as by consumption spending rooted in a robust stock market.

What could possibly go wrong? In a word: everything. Despite court rulings striking down many US tariffs, the tariff threat remains, with Trump invoking it in response to everything from Canadian wildfires to Brazilian elections. Equally, the prospects for reopening the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain, and US-China tensions are ratcheting up again, with Beijing slapping trade restrictions on dozens of US entities in advance of President Xi Jinping’s upcoming trip to the US.

It is anyone’s guess what will happen after that trip is over. Given reports that the US has expended many of the munitions and strategic resources that it would need to deter China from aggressive action in the South China Sea, an escalation in tensions cannot be ruled out. Although the rise in oil prices has been moderated by drawdowns in Chinese and US petroleum reserves, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is now at a 45-year low, and half of what remains cannot be withdrawn without risking a collapse of storage salt caverns.

Above all, there is the potential threat from financial markets. The combination of a richly valued stock market and rising long-term interest rates has historically been a toxic brew. We saw in July how pessimism about the immediate returns to AI-related investments can lead to a sharp drop in AI company share prices, especially when those investments are debt financed and the cost of capital is rising. If the share-price declines resume, the negative wealth effects on consumer spending could be significant.

We also saw how such share-price movements can wrong-foot investors in the same trendy sectors, with ruinous implications when their bets are backed by leverage, and with potentially serious consequences for banks and others providing the credit. Not every financial crash and crisis has been followed by a recession. But they’re the best leading indicator we have.

Newspaper Summary 160826

 The "7 streams of strength" or "Shakti ki Saptdharaas," as invoked by Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his Independence Day address, are the core pillars intended to propel India toward the goal of "Viksit Bharat" (Developed India) by 2047.

The seven streams identified in the sources are:

1. Manufacturing: Aiming for "Design in India, Design for the world" with a focus on zero-defect quality and global standards.
2. Agriculture: Integrated efforts to transition from traditional farming to export-oriented hubs for products like millets, spices, and fruits.
3. Food Processing: Strengthening the value chain from farm to fork to enhance the agricultural economy.
4. Infrastructure: Building modern, high-speed networks to support economic growth.
5. Energy: Transitioning to a "green and blue economy" by driving growth through green hydrogen, renewable energy, and solar power.
6. Gati Shakti: Creating seamless, high-speed, multi-modal logistics that link cities, railways, highways, airports, and industrial ports.
7. Defence: Achieving complete strategic self-reliance and becoming a global exporter of next-generation technologies like drones, counter-drone systems, and hypersonics.

To further support these goals, the Prime Minister also highlighted several "Big Announcements," including the training of one crore youth in AI over the next five years, a new semiconductor mission aiming for production-ready plants by 2029, and a nationwide campaign to identify sports talent in children aged 5–15.

The article titled “India Inc Q1 earnings spring a surprise despite cost pressures” reports that Corporate India’s performance for the June quarter was unexpectedly resilient, surpassing initial concerns about a slowdown.

Key Performance Highlights

• Aggregate Growth: For the 4,220 companies that reported results by the filing deadline, revenue grew by 21% and net profit (PAT) increased by 10.8% year-on-year (y-o-y).
• The BFSI Factor: Banks and financial services companies were the primary drivers of this growth. Excluding these entities, the aggregate net profit for the remaining 3,581 companies grew by a more modest 5.1% y-o-y.
• Energy Sector Contribution: The refinery, oil, and gas sectors also contributed significantly to the earnings surge, benefiting from higher refining margins and marketing profits.

Sectoral Headwinds and Pressures

Despite the overall positive numbers, several sectors faced significant challenges during the quarter:

• Manufacturing: This sector was particularly impacted by rising raw material costs, which squeezed profit margins.
• Rural Demand: Sectors such as FMCG and Agriculture continued to experience a sluggish recovery in demand from rural markets.
• Cost Management: Many companies across various industries had to navigate high input costs for steel, rubber, and aluminum, which remained a drag on their bottom lines.

Future Outlook

While the quarter provided a "pleasant surprise," analysts remain cautious. The report suggests that while the earnings trajectory is resilient, much will depend on the stabilization of commodity prices and the continued recovery of rural consumption in the coming quarters.

The article titled “PM Modi targets getting 50 Indian companies into Fortune 500” reports on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Independence Day address, where he outlined ambitious goals for India's corporate and economic presence on the global stage.

Key Targets and Objectives

• Fortune 500 Ambition: The Prime Minister has set a target to bring 50 Indian companies into the Fortune 500 list. Currently, there are nine Indian companies on the list: Reliance Industries, LIC, Indian Oil, State Bank of India, ONGC, BPCL, Tata Motors, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank.
• Global Banking and Pharma: He called for an Indian bank to be among the world’s top institutions and for an Indian pharma company to rank among the world's top five.
• Consulting Excellence: He also expressed the goal of having an Indian consulting firm recognized among the world's top firms.
• Focus on Quality: Emphasizing the importance of "Brand India," the PM stated that quality is paramount for building trust in Indian products globally.

Economic Transformation

• From "Fragile Five" to Global Leader: Modi noted that in the last 12 years, India has transformed from being part of the "Fragile Five" to becoming the world’s fastest-growing major economy.
• Unprecedented Growth: He highlighted that India is now moving with "unprecedented speed and confidence," driven by the resolve of 140 crore Indians.
• Viksit Bharat 2047: The ultimate goal is to build a Viksit Bharat (Developed India) by 2047, a vision he believes is reshaping how the world perceives India.

Key Achievements Cited

The Prime Minister pointed to several milestones reached over the past 12 years as proof of India's potential:

• Defence Production: Increased four-fold.
• Electronics Manufacturing: Now worth ₹10 lakh crore.
• Startup Ecosystem: India now boasts over 100 unicorns.
• Infrastructure and Tech: The metro rail network has expanded four times, and digital transactions have grown 100-fold.
• Semiconductors: India is moving toward becoming a major player, with production already begun at two plants and five to eight more plants expected in the coming years.

The article titled “Indices stagnate” from the bl.portfolio section provides a detailed analysis of the Indian stock market's performance for the week ending August 16, 2026.

Market Overview

• Performance: Both the Nifty 50 and the Sensex experienced a slight decline, ending the week down by approximately 0.4–0.5%.
• Current Trend: Despite the minor dip, the sources indicate that the medium-term uptrend remains intact. The current movement is characterized as a sideways consolidation or a "downward drift" within a larger positive trend.
• FPI Activity: Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) were net sellers for the fourth consecutive week, with an outflow of about $888.63 million.

Specific Index Outlooks

Nifty 50 (Closed at 24,366)

• Short-term: The index is stuck in a narrow range. Immediate resistance is at 24,500 and 24,800, while support lies at 24,250 and 24,150.
• Medium-term: The outlook remains positive as long as the index stays above the 23,800–24,000 zone. A decisive break above 24,800 could clear the path toward 25,500.

Nifty Bank (Closed at 50,486)

• Status: The index is currently consolidating.
• Key Levels: It has immediate support in the 49,700–50,000 range. On the upside, it faces resistance at 51,000 and 51,500. A break above 51,500 is necessary to signal a new bullish leg.

Sensex (Closed at 79,705)

• Range: The index is trading between 79,000 and 81,500.
• Risk: A break below the 79,000 support level could trigger a deeper correction toward 77,500. Conversely, a move above 81,500 would regain bullish momentum.

Nifty Midcap 150 (Closed at 21,420)

• Performance: This index has underperformed compared to large-caps recently.
• Levels: It is oscillating between support at 20,400 and resistance at 21,300. A breakout on either side will determine the next significant trend for midcap stocks.

The article titled “Small taxpayers can now disclose foreign assets under new I-T scheme,” found on page 1 of the sources, details a new disclosure-cum-settlement initiative launched by the Income Tax Department.

Overview of the Scheme

• Launch and Deadline: The scheme became effective on Sunday, August 16, 2026, and taxpayers have until December 31, 2026, to file their declarations.
• Target Audience: It is specifically designed to help small taxpayers, including young professionals, tech employees, and relocated residents, resolve practical issues regarding undisclosed assets held abroad.
• Disclosure Limits: The scheme facilitates the disclosure of foreign assets valued at up to ₹5 crore and undisclosed foreign income not exceeding ₹1 crore.

Definition of Undisclosed Assets

According to the Department’s FAQs, an undisclosed foreign asset is defined as a "financial interest," such as a bank account or a physical asset like a house, located outside of India. This applies if the taxpayer is the owner or beneficial owner but has no satisfactory explanation for the source of the investment.

Taxation and Payment Timeline

• Cost of Disclosure: Declarants are required to pay a 30 per cent tax on the value of the disclosed asset or income, plus a surcharge equal to the tax payable.
• Example Case: For an undisclosed foreign bank account valued at ₹50 lakh and foreign income of ₹20 lakh, the total tax and surcharge would amount to ₹25.2 lakh.
• Process: After filing, the Department will issue a tax order within one month. The taxpayer then has two months to make the payment, with a possible two-month extension subject to a 1 per cent monthly interest charge for the delay.

Legal Protections

By participating in this scheme, taxpayers receive immunity from further tax, penalties, and prosecution under the Black Money Act, 2015. Furthermore, the disclosed assets and income will not be included in the individual's total income for the current or previous assessment years under the Income-tax Act, 1961, or the Wealth-tax Act, 1957.

The article titled “Free online coaching, AI training announced for 1 crore youth,” published on page 12 of the sources, outlines new educational initiatives announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his Independence Day address aimed at supporting middle-class and lower-income families.

Free Online Coaching for Exams

• Target Group: The initiative is designed to help students from families that cannot afford expensive private coaching.
• The Plan: The government intends to build a complete network to provide free coaching for various competitive examinations.
• Implementation: This network will leverage digital platforms to ensure that high-quality coaching, travel, and accommodation resources are accessible to youth across the country.
• PM's Vision: The Prime Minister emphasized that no student should be deprived of a prestigious career simply because their parents lack the financial means to pay for private coaching.

AI Training Initiative

• Scale and Timeline: The government aims to provide Artificial Intelligence (AI) training to 1 crore youth over the next five years.
• Goal: The objective is to equip the younger generation with future-ready skills, enabling them to lead in the global AI landscape and establishing India as a "global hub of innovation".
• Infrastructure: This mission will be supported by India's robust public digital infrastructure.

Broader Educational Context

The Prime Minister also highlighted significant shifts and growth in India's educational sector over the last decade:

• Medical Education: He noted a substantial increase in medical seats and institutions. While there were fewer than 380 medical colleges between 2004 and 2014, nearly 700 new medical colleges and over 75,000 new medical seats have been added in the last ten years.
• New Education Policy: Modi pointed out that for the first time in 35 years, the country has implemented a new education policy to modernize the learning framework.
• Higher Education: The number of universities in India has more than doubled, with nearly 650 new universities established in the last decade.

The article titled “US Market Outlook: The short-term picture remains positive, likely to rise further,” located on page 7 of the sources, provides a technical analysis of the major US indices and economic indicators as of August 16, 2026.

Market Summary

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ Composite managed to remain stable during the week. While the Dow Jones dipped slightly by 0.56%, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite closed marginally higher by 0.36% and 0.14%, respectively. The overall short-term outlook remains positive, with room for indices to move higher.

Index-Specific Outlooks

• Dow Jones (33,737.38): The near-term picture is slightly weak with resistance at 34,200–34,400. A fall to 33,300 or 33,000 is possible in the coming weeks, but a drop below 33,000 is considered unlikely. A break above 34,400 could pave the way for a rise toward 36,000.
• S&P 500 (4,280.15): The index is inching upward with immediate support at 4,200. The bullish target remains at 4,400. If it breaks above 4,400, a rally toward 4,600–4,650 is expected; however, a reversal could see it fall toward 4,100–4,000.
• NASDAQ Composite (13,110.60): The index is holding higher, but upside is seen as limited. Resistance is in the 13,500–14,000 region, with a possible extended rise to 14,500. Analysts reiterate caution as the index climbs, expecting a potential fallback to 12,000 or lower.

Economic Indicators

• Dollar Outlook: The dollar index (99.65) has remained range-bound between 99.40 and 100.10 for two weeks. Support is identified at 99.20–99, while a break above 100.10 could push it toward 100.50–101.00. The upcoming US Fed meeting will be crucial in determining if it breaks below 99.
• Treasury Yield: The US 10-Year Treasury Yield (4.69%) has been oscillating between 4.6% and 4.75% for over three weeks. A breakout above 4.75% could lead to 4.8% and potentially 5% in the medium term. Conversely, a decline below 4.6% could see it fall to 4.5% or lower.

Bob Fosse Choreography

Monthly India Exports Breakdown 2026

 

Monthly India Exports Breakdown in 2026 (in Billion USD)

The table below outlines India's monthly export data, broken down by Merchandise (Goods) and Services, as reported in official government trade releases for the available months of 2026:

Month (2026)	Total Exports ($ Bn)	Merchandise Exports (Bn	Services Exports
January 2026	~$69.50	$36.92	$32.58
February 2026	~$73.10	$41.40	$31.70
March 2026	$74.12	$38.92	$35.20
April 2026	$80.80	$43.56	$37.24
May 2026	~$78.48	$45.35	$33.13
June 2026	$73.45	$40.41	$33.03
July 2026	$80.14	$44.24	$35.89

Monthly Merchandise Exports Split by Key Product Category (in Billion USD)

Major drivers across key product categories for recent months include:

Product Category	April 2026 ($ Bn)	June 2026 (Bn)	July 2026
Engineering Goods	$10.35	$10.85	$12.24
Petroleum Products	$9.59	$6.12	$6.92
Electronic Goods	$5.18	$4.95	$5.92
Organic & Inorganic Chemicals	$2.42	$2.61	$2.80
Drugs & Pharmaceuticals	$2.51	$2.48	$2.55
Gems & Jewellery	$2.15	$2.88	$2.64
Cotton Yarn / Textiles / Handloom	$0.98	$1.04	$1.11
Meat, Dairy & Poultry Products	$0.55	$0.51	$0.58
Iron Ore	$0.52	$0.48	$0.56

Key Data Observations & Notes

1. Top Export Drivers: Engineering Goods, Petroleum Products, and Electronic Goods remain the three largest pillars of India's merchandise export basket.
   
   
2. Electronics Boom: Electronics exports maintained strong double-digit YoY growth (e.g., surging +57.4% YoY in July 2026 to $5.92 Billion), driven by domestic smartphone manufacturing and global supply-chain relocation.
   
   
3. Services Resilience: IT and Business Services exports consistently contributed over $30–$35 Billion per month, helping balance India's merchandise trade deficit.