Benchmarks skyrocket 3.8% as markets cheer Iran-US ceasefire
ON A HIGH. Tumbling crude, sharp dip in volatility and global cues trigger broad-based rally
Anupama Ghosh, Mumbai
The equity benchmarks soared over 3.8 per cent on Wednesday after a last-minute ceasefire between the US and Iran triggered a global rally and sent crude oil prices tumbling. Major equities across the globe surged 2-7 per cent, with Korea’s Kospi leading the gainers pack.
The Nifty 50 closed at 23,997.35, up 873.70 points or 3.78 per cent, after opening with a gap-up of 731 points. During the day, it hit a high of 24,025.15. The Sensex settled at 77,562.90, adding 2,946 points or 3.95 per cent. The Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices advanced over 4 per cent each.
MACRO BOOST
The sharp correction in crude oil prices delivered a broader macro dividend for India “... as it eases inflationary pressures, narrows the current account deficit, supports the rupee and strengthens fiscal dynamics,” said Ajay Menon, MD and CEO, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services. He added that India, which had witnessed record FII outflows in March, stood to benefit meaningfully from the return of risk-on flows into emerging markets.
The two-week ceasefire, announced just hours before the US deadline, eased fears over energy supply disruptions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude plunged over 14 per cent, falling below $95 per barrel, with domestic crude futures dropping nearly 17 per cent.
The Reserve Bank of India added to the positive tone, with the Monetary Policy Committee unanimously holding the repo rate at 5.25 per cent with a neutral stance.
Sectorally, the rally was broad-based. Auto and Realty were the top performers, each gaining over 6.5 per cent, followed by banking and financial services, which advanced 5-6 per cent. The CPSE index was the lone laggard, ending marginally in the red.
The volatility gauge India VIX dropped over 20 per cent to 19.69, slipping below its 20-day EMA for the first time since February 18, signalling a meaningful easing of market uncertainty.
RUPEE RECOVERS
The rupee staged a sharp recovery, appreciating towards the 92.5/dollar zone, supported by declining crude prices and improving global cues. Gold rose over 2.4 per cent while silver surged more than 5.5 per cent.
Menon noted that with some macro stability, market focus is shifting to Q4 earnings. JM Financial estimates Nifty 50 PAT growth at 4.2 per cent year-on-year for the quarter, led by IT Services, Auto, Metals, and Telecom.
India’s solar energy capacity crosses 150 GW
M Ramesh, Chennai
India’s installed solar power capacity has crossed the 150 GW mark, numbers put out by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy show. This happened as installations in March reached a record 6.65 GW. In the full year 2025-26, India’s solar installations were 44.61 GW, taking the cumulative capacity to 150.26 GW.
There has been another notable record — in wind power. India installed a record 6.05 GW of wind power capacity, the highest ever, surpassing the 2016-17 record of 5.2 GW. Yet another record achieved in 2025-26 is the total renewable energy capacity installations crossing the 50 GW mark. Total installations during the year were 50.9 GW. With this, India’s total renewable energy installed capacity, excluding large hydro, stands at 223.27 GW. Including large hydro (51.41 GW), the number is 283.46 GW.
Also noteworthy is the point that within solar, rooftop installations crossed the 25-GW mark; they now stand at 25.73 GW.
INSTALLED CAPACITY
Minister for New and Renewable Energy and Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution Pralhad Joshi said on Wednesday that India ranks third globally in renewable energy installed capacity.
“Distributed renewable energy (DRE) from solar has emerged as a significant component of this growth, contributing 16.3 GW (36 per cent) of the 44.61 GW installed during 2025-26,” said a MNRE press release. This includes 7.6 GW under PM KUSUM and 8.7 GW from rooftop solar. Non-fossil capacity addition in 2025-26 is 55.29 GW and this is the highest increase in any year. Previously, the highest increase was 29.5 GW during 2024-25, the release said.
India welcomes West Asia pause
Amiti Sen, Rishi Ranjan Kala, New Delhi
India officially welcomed the announcement of a ceasefire in West Asia, expressing hope that the pause in hostilities will pave the way for “unimpeded” freedom of navigation and global flow of commerce through the Strait of Hormuz. The development is crucial for India, which depends heavily on the route for its crude oil imports and energy security, as the blockade of the strait caused major disruption to its LPG, LNG and crude oil supplies.
“We welcome the ceasefire reached and hope that it will lead to a lasting peace in West Asia. As we have continuously advocated earlier, de-escalation, dialogue and diplomacy are essential to bring an early end to the ongoing conflict,” the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said in a statement on Wednesday. The conflict, which has been going on for over a month, has already caused immense suffering to people and disrupted global energy supply and trade networks, the statement noted.
17 VESSELS
“Around 17 India-bound vessels, both Indian and foreign flagged, are waiting on the west of the Strait of Hormuz as of Tuesday,” a senior government official said. While four tankers are loaded with LPG, three are carrying LNG and 10 have crude oil. So far, eight Indian vessels carrying LPG and another foreign-flagged ship carrying crude have crossed the strait to head to India since the war broke out, the official said.
“We expect unimpeded freedom of navigation and global flow of commerce would prevail through the Strait of Hormuz,” the MEA added. While tensions in the region had been building for a long time—including the “twelve-day war” in June 2025 and widespread internal protests in Iran in January 2026—this specific all-out war was triggered by the February-28 strikes on Iran by the US and Israel.
The Ministry noted India has always been in favour of peace. “We welcome all steps that lead to peace and stability,” even drawing a parallel by expressing hope that this breakthrough might encourage similar peace efforts in the Ukraine conflict, it said.
The impact was felt immediately in global markets, with international crude oil prices witnessing a dramatic collapse. Brent crude plunged by about 14 per cent, trading near $94 per barrel, a sharp correction from the high of $119 seen during the peak of the hostilities. This offers significant relief to India, where prices of aviation fuel and commercial LPG prices have been increased due to disrupted supplies during the conflict.
Meanwhile, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh chaired the third meeting of the Informal Empowered Group of Ministers (IGoM) set up to monitor the evolving situation in West Asia. It reviewed measures taken to ensure the continued availability of essential commodities and safeguard Indian citizens.
Cease and desist
US-Iran ceasefire, a ray of hope for the world
After 40 days of utter mayhem, the US and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire — on a war that the US should not have begun in the first place. Markets have responded with a huge sense of relief, with Brent crude diving below $100 a barrel, and Sensex/Nifty posting near 4 per cent gains. The rupee gained 0.5 per cent over Tuesday’s close on Wednesday, ending at 92.58 to the dollar. Coming just hours after US President Donald Trump’s threats to blow up Iran, the ceasefire comes as a welcome anti-climax. Now, both sides are expected to conduct talks on the basis of an ambitious set of proposals. While it is anyone’s guess whether this truce endures, major economies and businesses have been pushed to the wall by dizzying levels of disruption and uncertainty — and that includes the US. The Trump administration is facing an economic, political and possibly global blowback. It is being increasingly perceived that China, the world’s second largest economy and the main buyer of Iranian oil, is behind the mediation efforts, even as talks are being held in Pakistan.
So far, it is apparent that Iran has had the upper hand in the conflict, despite its terrain and towns being battered. One fact alone bears this out: Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, open to free international access before the war, and effectively shut off 20 per cent of global oil supplies. It has eased access in recent days on its terms, but not before driving up oil prices by about $50 a barrel over a month. Now, a somewhat defensive Trump says that the ceasefire is predicated on Iran ensuring a “complete, immediate and safe opening” of the Strait of Hormuz — which, absurdly enough, was the state of play before US and Israel wrecked it. Iran has said that the straits, for now, will be opened under military supervision, but that it cannot be restored to the pre-war position. These are negotiating postures — just as Iran has demanded war reparations, lifting of economic sanctions, an end to attacks, the release of frozen assets and a UN security resolution making a deal binding, as part of its 10 demands. The US has pushed for the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear programme as part of its 15-point agenda.
The power play is intriguingly poised, with Iran possibly having an edge. If Trump considers Iran’s proposals “workable”, it perhaps suggests that he is looking for an “off ramp” to end a war that has not achieved any of the stated objectives. This included regime change in Iran, destruction of its military, dismantling of its nuclear programme and controlling the Strait. Ironically, what was once a freely navigable strait could well turn into a tolled one if Iran has its way and that’s a definite loss of face for the US. Both, US and Israel do not seem to have reckoned with Iran’s capacity to make a success of ‘asymmetric warfare’. Going forward, the most desirable outcome of the mediated talks would be to ensure that the Strait is safe and open. Meanwhile, we can expect a geopolitical reset, to US’ detriment. India’s position vis-a-vis the US and China looks complicated now, with Pakistan’s involvement — but the economy will hopefully ease up.
The article containing the section titled “PAUSING THE LAUNCH” is an opinion piece by GBS Bindra titled “An AI model that’s too risky”. Below is the full reproduction of the article as found in the sources:
An AI model that’s too risky
Release of Claude Mythos Preview rightly put on hold
By GBS Bindra
Something unusual happened in the artificial intelligence industry this week. Anthropic, one of the leading AI labs, built a model so capable that it chose not to release it. The model, called Claude Mythos Preview, is not just another incremental advance. It can autonomously discover and exploit serious cybersecurity vulnerabilities—tasks that have historically required elite human researchers working for weeks. In one instance, it reportedly identified and exploited a long-standing remote code execution flaw in FreeBSD that allows an attacker to gain complete control over a server from anywhere on the internet, starting from an unauthenticated position. No human was involved in either the discovery or exploitation after the initial prompt.
That is not just a technical milestone. It is a glimpse of a near future in which AI systems could dramatically accelerate both cyber defence and cyber offence.
PAUSING THE LAUNCH
To its credit, Anthropic did something rare in Silicon Valley: it paused. Instead of launching the model, it created Project Glasswing, a coalition that includes Amazon Web Services, Apple, Broadcom, Cisco, CrowdStrike, Google, JPMorganChase, Microsoft and NVIDIA. The goal is to use the model defensively—to identify and patch vulnerabilities in critical systems before similar capabilities become widely available. It is hard to overstate how unusual this is. A company sat on what could be an enormously valuable commercial product because it judged the risks to global infrastructure too high. In an industry defined by rapid releases and competitive pressure, that decision deserves recognition.
But it should also make us uneasy. Because for all its promise, Project Glasswing exposes a deeper problem: the future of global cybersecurity may be shaped not by public institutions, but by the internal decisions of a handful of private companies. Anthropic decided Claude Mythos Preview was too dangerous to release. It chose who would get access to it. It defined what counts as “defensive use”. And it will ultimately decide when systems with similar capabilities are safe enough for broader deployment.
That may be the right call, but it is still a private call. We have seen this pattern before in other high-stakes industries and rejected it. Banks do not determine their own capital requirements without oversight. Drug companies cannot unilaterally declare their products safe. Nuclear operators are not left to design their own inspection regimes. In each case, society concluded that even well-intentioned companies should not be the sole gatekeepers of technologies with systemic risk. Artificial intelligence is now at that point
World Bank cuts India’s FY27 growth rate by 30 bps to 6.6%
Shishir Sinha, New Delhi
The World Bank on Wednesday revised India’s growth forecast up by 30 basis points (bps) to 6.6 per cent for fiscal year 2026-27.
“Growth is projected to decelerate to 6.6 per cent in FY27, reflecting headwinds from the West Asia conflict,” World Bank said in the latest South Asia Economic Update, ‘Working with Industrial Policy’. “Other forecasters have revised down their growth projections to a range between 5.9 and 6.7 per cent,” it said. The World Bank’s forecast for the current fiscal is lower than RBI’s 6.9 per cent.
The World Bank pegged the growth at 7.6 per cent for FY26, higher than 7.1 per cent of FY25. This is mainly on account of strong domestic demand and export resilience. “Private consumption growth was particularly robust, supported by low inflation and rationalisation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST),” it said.
ENERGY PRICES
Elevated global energy prices are expected to put upward pressure on prices and constrain households’ disposable income.
“Government consumption growth is expected to soften to offset higher subsidy outlays for cooking fuel and fertilizers,” the Bank said, while adding that investment growth is likely to moderate amid elevated uncertainty and rising input costs. “Improved access to the US and the European Union for India’s exports will be undermined by slower growth in major trading partners,” it added.
Updated GDP data and calculation methods revealed that the economy was slightly smaller than previously thought, but recent growth has been faster.
STRONG CONSUMPTION
Domestic demand has been strong, with robust retail sales and consumer confidence reaching its highest post-pandemic level in November 2025.
According to the report, recent reforms to simplify and reduce taxes have also supported private consumption. Domestic strength outweighed goods export weakness. Goods exports grew by only 0.1 per cent in 2025, due to the US’ brief imposition of 50 per cent tariffs.
Services exports grew by about 16 per cent from December to February. Foreign investors, alongside strong remittances, helped contain the current account deficit. Falling food prices kept inflation below the Central bank’s 2-6 per cent target from September to December, before it rose to 3.2 per cent in February.
The report said that South Asia growth is expected to slow to 6.3 per cent in 2026 — from 7 per cent in 2025 — due to disruptions in global energy markets. “Despite the near-term slowdown, South Asia continues to grow faster than other emerging-market and developing economies,” the report said. The growth outlook is driven primarily by India’s performance, it added.