Newspaper Summary 160326

Airfares to US, Europe up after capacity cut on West Asia crisis

By T E Raja Simhan, Chennai

Airfares from major Indian cities to Europe and the US have surged sharply following the West Asia crisis as Gulf-based carriers have suspended operations, forcing passengers to rely on European, South-East Asian, and other international airlines.

Economy fares have more than doubled and, in some sectors, even tripled. Tickets for connecting flights to the US that previously cost around ₹75,000-₹86,000 are now priced between ₹1.5 lakh and ₹2.45 lakh. Travel agents noted that "the fare that used to be a round-trip is now one way".

TICKET SPIKE

Individual travelers are facing significant costs due to cancellations. For instance, P Venkateshwaran, who had originally booked a ₹30,000 ticket to London with Kuwait Airlines, was forced to pay ₹1.25 lakh for a flight on Ethiopian Airlines via Addis Ababa after his original flight was cancelled. He noted that choices are extremely limited and most remaining flights are operating at full capacity.

Travel agents report that economy fares from Bengaluru and Chennai have risen two to three times earlier levels. Specific price surges include:

• Bengaluru to San Francisco (Singapore Airlines): Risen from ₹78,537 to ₹1,51,469.
• Bengaluru to Los Angeles (Cathay Pacific): Surged from ₹80,961 to ₹2.45 lakh.
• Bengaluru to New York (Lufthansa): Climbed from ₹80,932 to ₹2.32 lakh.
• Chennai to San Francisco (Singapore Airlines): Risen from ₹80,717 to ₹1.58 lakh.
• Chennai to Los Angeles (Cathay Pacific): Increased from ₹86,746 to ₹2.44 lakh.
• Chennai to New York (Lufthansa): Climbed from ₹75,356 to ₹2.28 lakh.
• Chennai to London (British Airways): Direct flight economy fares jumped from ₹43,420 to ₹2.28 lakh.

ROUTE DISRUPTIONS

Connectivity through Asian hubs like Hong Kong, Singapore, and Malaysia is currently limited, with fewer connections available to major international destinations. While Thai Airways connects to the US, it does not offer services to the UK or Europe on those specific routes.

Anjani Kumar Dhanuka of Aircom Travels stated that securing seats to Europe or the US has become increasingly difficult, with some passengers prepared to pay ₹5 lakh to ₹6 lakh for a one-way ticket just to find a safe and available flight. Additionally, some travelers are voluntarily cancelling existing bookings due to safety concerns and rebooking via alternative routes at significantly higher costs.

Assembly polls in 4 States, Puducherry between April 9 and 29, results on May 4

By Rohit Vaid, New Delhi

The Election Commission of India on Sunday announced the schedule for the Assembly elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, and Kerala, along with the Union Territory of Puducherry. Polling will take place in all locations between April 9 and April 29, with the results set to be declared on May 4.

The Assembly elections in West Bengal will be conducted in two phases, on April 23 and April 29, while Tamil Nadu will hold its vote in a single phase on April 23. Polling for Kerala, Puducherry, and Assam will take place in a single phase on April 9. Alongside these primary Assembly elections, several States will also conduct by-elections, with voting scheduled for April 9 in Goa, Karnataka, and other regions; results for these will also be declared on May 4.

DEMOCRACY EXERCISE

Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar stated that these upcoming elections represent a major democratic exercise involving millions of voters. He emphasized that "pure electoral rolls are the bedrock of any democracy". To achieve this, the Summary Internal Revision (SIR) is being conducted under Article 326 of the Constitution to ensure all eligible electors are included and ineligible individuals are removed.

CODE ENFORCED

With the announcement, the Model Code of Conduct is now in effect. Addressing the decision to schedule West Bengal’s elections in two phases—a significant reduction from the eight phases in 2021—Kumar explained that the Commission aimed to bring the number of phases down to a level that is "convenient for everybody" after careful deliberation.

Regarding law and order, the Commission has already requested information from authorities concerning officials linked to previous election-related violence. Kumar also issued a warning that the Commission will maintain a strict watch on misinformation.

The US’ global misadventures

By TCA Srinivasa Raghavan

Over the last one year, the world has heard leaders of the American regime behave horribly rudely while saying abominable things about all non-Americans. All restraint has vanished; as the saying goes, the inmates have taken over the asylum and are running amok. This is not the first time that such an egregious and brutal demonstration of power, money and muscle has been seen, as America’s Wild West culture — "have gun, will travel" — has been a constant. One only has to look at what America has been doing in South America, which is beyond shameful but accepted as normal since Columbus found it. It is now trying to do it worldwide.

LITERARY PARALLELS

In 1955, Graham Greene wrote The Quiet American, followed three years later by William Lederer and Eugene Burdick’s The Ugly American. Predating both was an 1881 Indian play by Bharatendu Harishchandra called Andher Nagari, Chaupat Raja, which depicts a foolish ruler in a kingdom where no value is placed on values. America today exemplifies this play. The time has perhaps come for someone to write a novel called The Indifferent American.

During the late 1960s, violent American involvement in South-East Asia — Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and Thailand — was at its peak. The literature of that era explained that American foreign policy was seen as incompetent, arrogant, and stupid.

AMERICAN INDIFFERENCE

A modern theme could be the sheer indifference of the American people to the qualities of those who govern them. They simply do not seem to care what American regimes do abroad — out of sight, out of mind — which is incomprehensible for a people so energetically innovative in other aspects of human endeavor.

It does not seem to bother them that American governments lie frequently to pursue foreign policy objectives. For instance, the massive escalation in the Vietnam war was based on the lie of the Gulf of Tonkin incident. Since 1945, every war that America has launched has been based on a lie, and it has lost all of them. The American people go along each time due to resignation, helplessness, or apathy. As long as a large number of Americans don’t die, they don’t care what their government does abroad.

PROFIT AND HUBRIS

Voter apathy is also sustained as long as American companies make money. Currently, the oil, gas, and fertilizer industries are benefiting hugely, with gains running into billions of dollars. The ruling regime always claims it is killing non-Americans for their own good, which is the essence of the "just war" lie. However, after repeated use, this moral cloak has worn thin, and self-serving intent is plainly visible.

It is no excuse that an enemy state is brutal; is it America's duty to bring it down when it exempts so many other similarly brutal ones?. America frequently picks on hugely weaker opponents only to lose, representing an extraordinary pattern of hubris being humiliated.

THE MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX

One hundred and twenty-five years ago, George Bernard Shaw’s play Major Barbara suggested how the arms industry persuaded governments to go to war, framing it as a "moral" endeavor by devoting small portions of profits to charity. Half a century later, President Dwight Eisenhower labeled this the military-industrial complex. Various American politicians have even suggested that the UN is antithetical to this complex.

The arms industry requires wars to make money, which is why America maintains military bases in at least 70 countries. While the rest of the world is aware of this, Americans themselves rarely discuss it. As ignorant electorates go, America’s is at the top of the chart, unable to hold its regime to a moral standard. To them, foreigners are fair game. It is hard to escape the conclusion that the American voter is largely insular and morally delinquent, and unfortunately, the American president is chosen from amongst them.

MSMEs push for 6 month moratorium on debt as gas supply shortage hits operations

By Suresh P Iyengar, Mumbai

The ongoing gas supply disruptions have started impacting micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), which are gearing up to seek a six-month moratorium on outstanding and fresh loans to deliver pending orders. Most MSMEs currently have healthy order books as the financial year ends this month, but they are finding it difficult to execute them because the West Asia war has crippled gas supplies.

PRODUCTION CUTS

More than 70 per cent of MSMEs in the western region have cut production by 50-60 per cent. Industrial gas is a critical input for foundries and metal fabrication companies, which are now unable to perform essential gas-fired processes like heat treatment and powder coating. This disruption is expected to hit the supply of automotive and engineering components in the near term.

Chandrakant Salunkhe, President of the SME Chamber of India, stated that the government bringing in a few ships is insufficient to meet the massive demand. The association intends to meet with the RBI to seek a three-month moratorium and extended credit to complete pending orders. Salunkhe suggested that the Finance Ministry should follow the precedent set during the pandemic and announce a 3-6 month moratorium along with an additional 25 per cent loan under the Credit Guarantee Scheme.

GAS SHORTAGE IMPACTS

Prashant Damle, CEO of Precision Auto Components Industries, reported that his company attempted to switch to coal but found it too expensive, especially given the uncertainty regarding when gas supplies would return to normal. As a result, the company has reduced the number of shifts to two.

The crisis is also affecting construction materials. Steel companies have hiked TMT bar prices by ₹1,000-₹1,500 a tonne. Furthermore, the Morbi cluster is experiencing significant production cuts because its kilns rely on natural gas, which will likely impact real estate and infrastructure projects by the end of the month. Anand Gupta, Chairperson of the Housing and Rera Committee of the Builders Association of India, noted that the rise in TMT bar prices would marginally affect demand and impact **individual home builders in rural areas

Adani Power wins 1,600 MW electricity supply deal

Mumbai

Adani Power has received a Letter of Award from the Maharashtra State Electricity Distribution Company Ltd to supply 1,600 MW of electricity under a 25-year power supply arrangement starting from FY31.

The award was granted following a competitive bidding process in which Adani Power emerged as the lowest tariff bidder. The company stated on Sunday that it will be offering power at a combined tariff of ₹5.3 per kWh.

OUR BUREAU

PN3 was meant as an emergency measure

By Aditya Sinha

The mercantilist instinct to block outflows and restrict commerce with a rival is ancient, yet often viewed as incorrect by modern economists. India’s trade deficit with China reached $99.2 billion in FY25, with imports rising to $113.45 billion while exports contracted to $14.25 billion. In April 2020, India implemented Press Note 3 (PN3), which restricted Chinese investment under the Consolidated FDI Policy. While geopolitical concerns drove the note, its economic impact has been significant: from April 2000 to June 2025, China ranked only 23rd as a source of FDI equity inflow into India, accounting for just 0.34 per cent of the total. On March 10, 2026, the Union Cabinet finally amended PN3, a move many experts consider overdue.

ARGUMENTS AGAINST PN3

Six primary arguments were identified against the continuation of PN3 prior to its amendment:

• Expired Emergency Rationale: The original text of PN3 framed it as a response to "opportunistic takeovers" during the COVID-19 pandemic. With the pandemic over and markets recovered, retaining emergency legislation was seen as "bureaucratic sedimentation".
• Incoherent Legal Architecture: The policy used undefined terms like “beneficial owner,” leading to litigation and confusion between competing thresholds (10 per cent under Company Rules vs. 25 per cent under PMLA). Consequently, approvals that were promised in 8-10 weeks often took 6-10 months.
• Missed "China Plus One" Opportunities: While countries like Vietnam, Mexico, and South Korea attracted Chinese FDI to gain US export shares, India’s restrictive policy prevented it from doing the same.
• Energy Transition Barriers: China controls over 60 per cent of global battery production and 70 per cent of solar supply chains. Blocking this capital hindered India's ability to build a domestic battery ecosystem while import dependency continued.
• Pressure on FDI Trajectory: Net FDI in India fell 62 per cent from $28 billion in FY23 to $10.6 billion in FY24. Procedural uncertainty from PN3 affected rising investment intentions in critical sectors like AI, data centres, and EVs.
• Constraints on Local Manufacturing: Allowing Chinese investment under controlled conditions would help internalize value chains. Local manufacturing by Chinese firms would build jobs and capabilities on Indian soil, even if the capital originates across the border.

The amendment to Press Note 3 is seen as a necessary step to spur domestic value chains and create jobs. It highlights how easily emergency measures can become permanent "furniture" when data-driven adjustments are ignored.

The Pygmalion effect on cricket and work!

By Kamal Karanth

Whether it was superior skills, good preparation, or a well-rewarded system that enabled Team India to lift the T20 cricket World Cup once again, the success can be attributed to the Pygmalion effect. This psychological principle suggests that people tend to perform better when more is expected of them. In the professional world, this raises the question of whether high expectations can help colleagues outperform on their tasks.

THE RESEARCH

In the 1960s, Harvard psychologist Robert Rosenthal conducted a study at a San Francisco elementary school where teachers were told certain students were "set to blossom" based on an IQ test. A year later, those specific students showed significantly higher score increases than their peers. Researchers found that teachers were more encouraging, less critical of mistakes, and used warmer body language with this group. Rosenthal named this the Pygmalion effect, inspired by the Greek myth of a sculptor whose love for his statue brought it to life.

EXPECTATIONS DELIVERED

In a competitive world, it is difficult to justify expecting less from any colleague, yet there is often a tendency to ignore poor performance in some while focusing entirely on high-potential individuals. Professional spaces often involve a constant toggle between engaging a team and applying pressure to deliver superior results.

The author recalls a past experience with a capable colleague who struggled with media training. Instead of providing support, the author taunted him about a lack of effort, eventually leading the colleague to become immune to the sarcasm and fail to develop the necessary skills. This highlights how a boss who only applies pressure without encouragement can label a capable person as "lazy".

WEIGHT OF REPUTATION

Different team members react to pressure in various ways, with some bouncing back and others whittling down. Superstars in an organization often face immense pressure because their actions are closely monitored by bosses and highlighted as best practices by HR and CEOs.

While running India operations, the author noted the high level of attention given to counterparts in Singapore and Malaysia, who generated 90 per cent of regional profits. However, moving into regional roles revealed the "downside" of such attention. Similar to the Indian cricket team facing critics after losses, superstars in an organization often deal with detractors who seem to wait for them to fail. Living up to a past track record is a significant challenge.

ASSUMING POSITIVE INTENT

Trinity University professor Amer Kaisser, in his book The Positive Intent Mindset, argues that positivity begets positivity. Leaders who assume others are trying their best will likely find evidence to support that belief, whereas those with biases will find evidence to the contrary.

The thousands of fans who fill stadiums to cheer for India, despite often poor facilities, represent a massive support system. With millions of fans wanting them to succeed, it is natural for the Indian cricket team to lift its game and continue winning. Do we create high performers simply by virtue of the expectations we place on them?

Op Sindoor: An insider’s account

By Col. Arun Hariharan

Title: Operation SINDOOR Author: Lt Gen KJS ‘Tiny’ Dhillon Publisher: Penguin Veer Price: ₹599

Lt Gen KJS “Tiny” Dhillon’s Operation SINDOOR: The Untold Story of India’s Deep Strikes Inside Pakistan offers a first-person, strategic narrative of India’s military response to the Pahalgam terror attack. Written by the former Director General Defence Intelligence Agency and Corps Commander of the Chinar Corps, the book combines operational detail with political-strategic framing and a focus on narrative warfare.

THE CATALYST

The volume is anchored in the Baisaran Valley attack at Pahalgam, which the author interprets as a deliberate attempt to rupture India’s inter-religious harmony due to the diverse backgrounds of the victims. India’s response, Operation Sindoor, was a joint air-dominated campaign designed to strike terror infrastructure at its source. The author argues that this operation reflects India’s military modernization and its evolving doctrine of calibrated, firm cross-border responses even under a nuclear overhang.

OPERATIONAL THEMES

The analytical core of the narrative focuses on the “Four-Day War,” battles along the Line of Control, and strategic communication. Three major themes emerge from the text:

• Network-Centric Warfare: The book highlights a transition toward integrated warfare using precision weapons, drones, and layered air defense. It notes the use of Rafale aircraft employing MBDA SCALP land-attack cruise missiles and Safran AASM Hammer guided bombs to hit targets up to 150 kilometers inside Pakistani territory.
• Whole-of-State Mobilization: Operation Sindoor is portrayed as a coordinated enterprise involving the armed forces, intelligence community, diplomatic apparatus, and political leadership.
• Narrative Warfare: The author emphasizes how media and information operations are now woven into operational planning to control the crisis story and counter external perceptions.

ANALYSIS AND PERSPECTIVE

Gen. Dhillon frames the operation as a morally and strategically necessary response to provocation. While providing detailed insight into the thinking of senior military leadership regarding escalation dominance, the work is noted for being openly national in orientation.

Critics suggest the book engages only lightly with the potential costs, risks of collateral damage, or the possibility of miscalculation. Furthermore, the Pakistani perspective receives minimal exploration beyond being a foil for Indian decision-making. Despite these caveats, the book is considered an authoritative insider's narrative and an important addition to Indian strategic writing.

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About the Author: Lt General KJS Dhillon (retd) is a 1983-commissioned Infantry Officer (Rajputana Rifles) who has served extensively in counter-insurgency and counterterrorism operations in Kashmir and the North-East.

Children of a lesser God: The tumultuous lives of child actors

By Naveen Chandra

Title: Behind the Big Screen Authors: Sunanda Mehta & Suchitra Iyer Price: ₹599 Publisher: Magic Mouse Publishing

“None of my achievements from Salaam Bombay! are of any use,” laments Shafiq Sheikh, whose breakthrough performance in that film won him a National Film Award in 1989. To make ends meet, he now drives an auto rickshaw on the streets of Bengaluru and takes on small film roles. Shafiq, a former street kid who won his role beating out 129 other contestants, represents the "instant high" followed by a hopeless future that has led him to attempt to end his life many times.

DOCUMENTING THE STRUGGLE

In Behind the Big Screen, journalists Sunanda Mehta and Suchitra Iyer uncover the journeys of child actors who once shone at the box office. The book documents their struggles with parental control, their dramatic falls into ignominy, heartbreaks, loss of innocence, and the constant pressure to survive in the film industry.

The narrative ranges from Daisy Irani’s harrowing past to the rise of Junior Mehmood, who used his chutzpah and help from the actor Mehmood to find his place in cinema. It also touches upon the torturous personal lives of legends like Meena Kumari and Madhubala, even as they successfully transitioned into adult superstars.

SUCCESS STORIES AND COMPLICATIONS

A brief chapter details those fortunate enough to find lasting success, including Sridevi, Urmila Matondkar, Kamal Haasan, Aamir Khan, and Hrithik Roshan.

The book highlights contrasting experiences with family and finances:

• Khushbu: The daughter of a TV mechanic, she protested her father’s control, shifted to South Indian cinema, and became an iconic superstar.
• Sarika: Unlike Khushbu, she fought a bitter legal battle to gain control of her finances from her father, a situation mirrored by MacCauley Culkin in the US.

THE SLUMDOG LEGACY

The book also chronicles the fate of the four child actors from Danny Boyle’s Slumdog Millionaire. The youngest, Rubina, went from a Dharavi slum to the Oscars red carpet, only to return home to a stepmother who threw her out of her house and media reports accusing her father of trying to sell her to a Sheikh. She eventually used a trust set up by Boyle to attempt to rebuild her life by opening a salon.

THE PSYCHOLOGICAL TOLL

The collection includes a psychologist's perspective on the toll of grueling work schedules, exposure to adult scenarios beyond their understanding, and the effects of tasting stardom and rejection at a very young age.

Behind the Big Screen is a well-researched, non-judgmental look at the emotional cost children pay to grow up on the big screen.

Patenting for plastic circularity

PolyCycl’s technology transforms hard-to-recycle plastics into valuable feedstock.

By Sanjana B.

Globally, just under 10 per cent of plastic waste is recycled, leading to nearly 5 billion tonnes of accumulated waste in landfills, oceans, and cities. Much of this waste comprises flexible packaging, single-use polythene bags, and food-contaminated plastics that cannot be mechanically recycled.

THERMO-CHEMICAL INNOVATION

To address this gap, Poly-Cycl, a recycling solutions company founded in 2016, has developed a patented thermo-chemical technology that converts hard-to-recycle plastics into liquefied hydrocarbon oils. These oils serve as high-value circular feedstock in the manufacture of low-carbon plastics, renewable chemicals, and sustainable fuels.

Amit Tandon, Founder and CEO of PolyCycl, explains that while plastics are typically made from fossil-extracted crude oil, PolyCycl transforms discarded plastics into a format acceptable to the point of origin of those materials. This creates a true plastic-to-plastic circular pathway, enabling boundless circularity.

PATENTS AND MANDATES

PolyCycl has eight international patents granted across India and the US, with more in the pipeline. This technology is particularly relevant as India’s Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) framework mandates increasing recycling targets and compulsory use of recycled content, including 10 per cent in flexible packaging and 30 per cent in rigid packaging, by 2025–26.

BUSINESS MODEL

The company’s business model is primarily technology licensing. PolyCycl provides the core proprietary process and equipment, while the licensee is responsible for financing, constructing, and operating the plant. Implementation partners like L&T support the execution, commissioning, and performance optimization of these plants.

Key target sectors for this technology include:

• Petrochemical industry: Manufacturers of plastics.
• Chemical industry: Entities with expertise in operating processing assets.
• Waste management sector: Those who already aggregate plastic waste through municipal contracts.
• Mechanical recyclers: Those looking to expand into chemical recycling.

GROWTH AND FUNDING

In January, PolyCycl raised a Series A round from Rainmatter, the investment arm of Zerodha. The company plans to use these funds to advance R&D, establish advanced circularity labs for analyzing its hydrocarbon (pyrolysis) oils, and strengthen technical teams. Over the next decade, PolyCycl aims to enable the global recycling of plastic waste.

Hedge funds, banks in the UAE hit contingency mode

West Asian war punctures Emirates’ reputation for stability in a volatile neighbourhood

As missiles and drones flew over the United Arab Emirates, traders and Wall Street executives who have recently flocked to the Gulf found themselves confronting an unexpected threat in a country that had pitched itself as the region’s safest hub. Several hedge funds immediately began reviewing business-continuity arrangements, while major banks including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Commerzbank, and Nomura instructed employees to work from home. Other firms urged staff to shelter in place and avoid sensitive areas around embassies and military installations as they rushed to size up their regional exposure.

PERCEPTION PUNCTURED

These defensive moves followed air defense systems intercepting projectiles over the skylines of Dubai and Abu Dhabi in the first week of March, with debris and smoke visible near high-profile commercial districts and luxury developments, including Palm Jumeirah. A suspected aerial strike partially damaged facilities at the Dubai International Airport, and debris from an intercepted drone struck a building facade at Etihad Towers, which houses diplomatic missions in the UAE capital. These attacks, part of an unprecedented Iranian response to US and Israeli strikes, have punctured the long-held perception that the UAE was insulated from its neighborhood's volatility—an image that underpinned its rise as a magnet for private capital.

STAFF SAFETY MEASURES

Affected workers are now required to check in daily, and firms are maintaining rosters to track travels and provide assistance; some companies have even booked hotel rooms for staff members unable to leave the city. Kenneth Kan, Deputy CEO and Managing Partner of an affected firm, stated that while they had previously managed challenges like Covid and the Hong Kong riots, wartime-related safety issues represented a first for them.

REGIONAL HUB GROWTH

Despite the current crisis, Dubai has emerged as a fast-growing hedge fund hub, with the DIFC now hosting more than 100 firms, including Millennium Management and ExodusPoint Capital Management. Abu Dhabi is similarly scaling up, attracting firms such as Hudson Bay Capital Management, Marshall Wace, and Arini, while an emirate-based entity recently took a minority stake in Brevan Howard Asset Management. Buyout firms like Blackstone, Brookfield Asset Management, and BlackRock have also been adding resources and ramping up deal-making across the region.

Bloomberg

 

Newspaper Summary 150326

 

Iran war blows up food prices in Gulf as logistics disarray leads to shortages, soaring freight rates

V Sajeev Kumar, Subramani Ra Mancombu (Kochi/Chennai)

The Iran war is leading to food inflation in the Gulf region, primarily the United Arab Emirates, with sea and air routes affected since February 27. Multiple sources told businessline that prices of vegetables and fruits have doubled, while stocks of foodgrains, mainly rice, are thinning.

“Last week, vegetable trays in some shops in Sharjah were empty. This week, prices have come down a tad,” said a Sharjah-based person from Kerala. “Prices are sky high. Tomato is 15-18 dirhams now,” said a Dubai-based person from Tamil Nadu.

MANAGING SUPPLIES

A trading source said the UAE has only a fortnight’s stock of premium rice varieties, while ordinary varieties may last 45 days. The Gulf country could soon run out of potatoes. This being the Ramadan festival season, there is high demand for several products from India in the wake of the crisis.

“Traders are currently managing supplies through shipments from Sri Lanka, Vietnam and Thailand. However, rising freight costs have forced many buyers to defer purchases,” said Siraj.

FREIGHT RATE TRIPLES

Munshid Ali, General Secretary of the Kerala Exporters Forum, said his firm had received shipment orders for 2,000 kg of pineapple and 27 tonnes of coconut from Tamil Nadu to meet the festival demand. However, soaring freight charges have made shipment unviable.

The air freight cost for pineapple from Kerala airports soared from ₹70–80 a kg to around ₹210, prompting buyers to cancel orders. “For coconuts, container freight has climbed to around $3,800,” Ali said.

DISRUPTED LOGISTICS

Asked how traders are navigating shipping routes amid the conflict, Ali said some cargo is being routed through alternative paths. “Saudi Arabia and Oman have other routes to cater to the Gulf Cooperative Council through road because Red Sea and Oman ports do not need to use the Strait of Hormuz,” Ali said.

The UAE is taking Oman’s help due to its proximity and things are being managed through road. Ali noted that over 150 tonnes of perishable exports from Kerala are stranded, as both air and sea cargo routes have been severely affected. Although some urgent supplies are being flown in...

How gold has stocks for breakfast

Kumar Shankar Roy bl. research bureau

BULLION LESSON. In 10 years, only 26% of stocks have beaten gold; over one year, just 3% did as the shiny metal crushed equities.

If Indian equities are supposed to reward patience, gold, often lampooned as a 'dead' asset, has spent the last decade mocking that promise. In the one year to March 13, 2026, gold (MCX spot prices) returned 82.86 per cent. Out of roughly 1,134 NSE-listed stocks with sufficient trading history, only 37 or 3 per cent beat it. That means 97 per cent did not.

But the real insult lies in the longer periods where equity investors usually demand respect for their endurance. Over three years, gold returned 178.42 per cent and only 13 per cent of stocks beat it. Over five years, it returned 257.68 per cent and just 21 per cent beat it. Over seven years, only 18 per cent got past gold’s 390.34 per cent return. Even over ten years, after all the sermons on compounding and discipline, only 26 per cent of stocks managed to outperform gold’s 443.37 per cent gain.

Dalal Street may have built an equity culture after Covid, but the precious metal has built a case file of crushing performance. This is what makes the old line about the Indian housewife being the world’s best fund manager so irritatingly durable.

HOUSEHOLD TRADE

While the formal investor learnt to say SIP, small-cap, tactical allocation and buy-on-dips, she kept buying gold. No earnings calls, no management guidance, and no quarterly disappointment. Just a dull-looking metal quietly doing the one thing equity markets claim to do: preserve purchasing power and occasionally embarrass consensus.

This is not merely one freak year of missiles and safe-haven panic. The yearly cuts show that gold has repeatedly been a difficult hurdle for stocks even when its own annual return was not spectacular.

• 2025: Gold returned 32.57%; 82% of stocks failed to beat it.
• 2023: Gold returned only 8.59%; 63% of stocks still could not get past it.
• 2020: Gold rose 29.9%; a crushing 96% of stocks lagged it.
• 2019: Gold’s return was just 6.57%; 84% of stocks still failed to beat it.

Gold did not need to be brilliant every year; the stock universe merely needed to be ordinary, volatile, or badly distributed. Equity bulls can point to friendlier windows, such as the 2021 cut when 94 per cent of stocks beat gold's 5.54 per cent return, or 2024 when 75 per cent did. But gold waits for the more disorderly years and keeps winning enough of them.

VALUATIONS MATTER

Data shows that when starting Nifty 50 valuations are not especially cheap, gold has often done well relative to the index.

• When the Nifty 50 P/E starts in the 20-25 band, gold beats the Nifty 50 by an average 11.27 percentage points over three years.
• In the 15-20 band, it beats by 6.44 points.
• Even in the 10-15 band, it still edges ahead over three years.

Gold’s own average three-year returns across these starting valuation bands are strong: 61.52 per cent from the 10-15 band, 46.31 per cent from 15-20 band, and 48.05 per cent from 20-25 band.

The joke is on modern portfolio snobbery. The asset long treated as backward and unproductive has spent years exposing how few stocks actually deliver the heroic long-term story investors are sold. Gold may not produce cash flows, but it has produced discomfort for anyone who thought equities would easily leave it behind.

None of this means investors should dump equities and marry bullion. It simply means gold has historically looked most useful when fear is rising, liquidity is uncertain, and equities are not entering from obviously cheap valuations. When the market is expensive and the world is noisy, gold deserves more respect than the average stock bull likes to give it.

Wrecking ball of war hits bourses

INDEX OUTLOOK: The break of crucial support last week opens the door for more downside

Gurumurthy K

The Indian benchmark indices were knocked down badly last week. Nifty 50 and Sensex tumbled over 5 per cent each, while the Nifty Bank index was down about 7 per cent. We had expected the benchmark indices to bounce back from their key supports, but that view has gone wrong. We now prefer to stay out of the market and watch, as charts indicate there is more room to fall from here. Among the sectors, the BSE Auto index tumbled about 10 per cent.

FPIs SELL

The Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) sold heavily for the second consecutive week, with the equity segment seeing a net outflow of about $3.44 billion last week. The FPIs have sold about $5.7 billion in just two weeks of this month, which can keep the indices under pressure for some more time.

NIFTY 50 (23,151.10)

• Short-term view: The outlook is bearish. Resistances are at 23,700 and 23,900. Nifty can fall to the 22,800-22,600 support zone; failure to bounce there can drag it further to 22,200-22,100. Nifty needs a strong rise above 24,000 to bring back bullishness.
• Medium-term View: The rally to 28,000 will not happen immediately. The region between 22,200 and 22,000 is the crucial support to watch next. A bounce from there can take Nifty back to 26,000-26,400, keeping the broader sideways range intact. Nifty will come under a big threat if it breaks below 22,000.

NIFTY BANK (53,757.85)

• Short-term view: Immediate support is in the 53,500-53,300 region. A corrective bounce can take the index to 55,500-56,000, but a fresh fall could drag it down to 52,200. A sustained rise above 56,000 is needed to ease downside pressure.
• Medium-term view: We allow for an extended fall to 52,200. A strong bounce from there could eventually take the index back to 60,000 levels. We retain a medium-term target of 64,000-65,000, which would only go wrong if the index declines below 52,000.

SENSEX (74,563.92)

• Short-term view: The outlook is negative, with room to see 73,000-72,800. It must rise past 77,500 decisively to see relief.
• Medium-term view: The fall below 75,500 has set aside the chances of seeing 90,000 for now. Strong supports remain at 72,700 and 72,250. A bounce and subsequent rise above 77,500 could return the Sensex to 85,000-86,000.

NIFTY MIDCAP 150 (20,233)

The fall below 20,800 has increased pressure, but crucial support is around 20,000. A bounce there and a rise above 21,100 will keep the broader bullish view alive. The danger is if the index breaks below 20,000, potentially seeing 18,500-18,300.

NIFTY SMALLCAP 250 (14,857.50)

The break below 15,000 has opened doors for an extended fall to 14,000, which is a strong support that can halt the fall. As long as the index stays above 14,000, the long-term rally to 22,500-23,000 cannot be ruled out.

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LEVELS TO WATCH

• Nifty 50: 22,600, 22,100
• Sensex: 72,700, 72,250
• Nifty Bank: 53,300, 52,200

Claiming refund for e-banking fraud

Kumar Shankar Roy bl. research bureau

As digital payments evolve and fraud risks change, the RBI wants customer protection rules to keep pace. On March 6, the RBI issued draft directions reviewing its 2017 framework on limiting customer liability in unauthorised electronic banking transactions. Here is a lowdown:

What is the extent to which customers can be compensated for small-value fraudulent electronic banking transactions?

Under the draft framework, a bona fide individual victim can get compensation for fraudulent electronic banking transactions involving a gross loss of up to ₹50,000. The compensation is capped at 85 per cent of the net loss, or ₹25,000, whichever is lower. Net loss means the loss after reducing any recovery already made, whether before or after compensation is paid. This compensation can be claimed only once in a lifetime. In a joint account, only one account holder can claim it, and that person cannot later claim it again in an individual capacity.

But this is not an automatic payout in every fraud case. The bank must first be satisfied that the claim is bona fide under its internal policy. The customer must also report the transaction on the National Cyber Crime Reporting Portal or Helpline 1930, and to the bank, within five calendar days of the transaction.

Which are the electronic banking transactions covered by the rules?

The draft directions widen the scope of the framework beyond unauthorised transactions. They now cover “fraudulent electronic banking transactions”, which include both certain authorised transactions tainted by fraud and unauthorised transactions. In other words, the rules are no longer confined only to unauthorised electronic banking transactions.

An authorised electronic banking transaction includes one done by the customer, or by a previously authorised third party, using a standing instruction, mandate, OTP, password, card details or another bank-provided electronic authentication method. But the draft also says some fraud-hit authorised transactions will still fall within the protection framework. These include cases where:

• A third party uses credentials obtained from the customer through fraud.
• The customer approves a transaction under coercion or duress.
• The customer is tricked into sending money to a scammer posing as a legitimate recipient.

The draft also links “electronic banking transaction” to the Payment and Settlement Systems Act definition of electronic funds transfer, and specifically includes both card-not-present and card-present transactions. It also envisages reporting and review across categories such as Internet banking, mobile banking and ATM transactions.

What facilities should banks provide for reporting of fraudulent electronic banking transactions?

Banks must provide customers with 24x7 access through multiple reporting channels. These can include phone banking, SMS, email, IVR, a dedicated toll-free helpline and reporting through the home branch. These facilities are meant both for reporting fraudulent transactions and for reporting loss or theft of a payment instrument such as a card.

The bank must also build an alert system. The transaction alert SMS must carry a number to which the customer can immediately send an objection SMS. The bank must also place a direct reporting link on its website home page. The draft also requires a clear audit trail, recording the date and time when alerts were delivered and when the customer’s response was received.

When is a customer entitled to zero liability and reversal of transaction? What are the timelines prescribed?

The draft gives a customer zero liability in two broad situations:

1. If the fraudulent electronic banking transaction happened because of negligence or deficiency on part of the bank, the customer gets zero liability and reversal, regardless of whether it was reported by the customer.
2. In cases of third-party breach, the customer gets zero liability and reversal if the unauthorised fraudulent electronic banking transaction is reported to the bank within five calendar days of the transaction.

Where reversal is required, the bank must reverse the transaction with value dating from the original transaction date, meaning the customer should not lose interest or bear extra charges because of the delay. The bank must examine the complaint and issue its response within 30 calendar days from receipt of the complaint. Also, once the customer has reported the fraudulent transaction, any further unauthorised transaction after that point must be borne by the bank.

What is third-party breach under these rules?

The draft defines third-party breach as a situation where the deficiency lies neither with the bank nor with the customer, but elsewhere in the system. The directions specify that this includes intermediaries such as a third-party application provider, payment aggregator, payment gateway and telecom service provider. If the failure arose at one of these layers, the case may fall within the third-party breach category.

How is the compensation shared between the RBI, customer’s bank and beneficiary bank?

The draft lays down a fixed sharing formula for the proposed small-value compensation mechanism:

• For losses below ₹29,412: Compensation is 85 per cent of net loss. Of the gross loss, 65 per cent is borne by the RBI, 10 per cent by the customer’s bank and 10 per cent by the beneficiary bank.
• For losses between ₹29,412 and ₹50,000: The compensation is capped at ₹25,000. The contribution is fixed at ₹19,118 from the RBI, ₹2,941 from the customer’s bank and ₹2,941 from the beneficiary bank.

The bank must pay the customer within five calendar days of receiving the compensation application and then seek reimbursement from the RBI on a quarterly basis. This arrangement is proposed only for one year initially.

How does lost amount recovery affect compensation?

Compensation is based on net loss, not just the amount first reported as lost. If some money is recovered before compensation is paid, the customer’s loss comes down and compensation is calculated on that reduced amount. If money is recovered after compensation has already been paid, the customer’s bank must recalculate compensation based on the revised net loss and apportion the recovered amount accordingly.

Weak equities, strong dollar

GAINING STRENGTH: The dollar index can rise to 103-104 on a break above the immediate resistance level of 101

Gurumurthy K

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite index fell for the third consecutive week. The Dow Jones, down 1.99 per cent, fell the most, while the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite index were down 1.6 per cent and 1.26 per cent respectively.

The dollar index and the Treasury Yields, on the other hand, have risen sharply over the last couple of weeks. High risk aversion on the back of the ongoing US-Iran war is aiding the greenback to climb higher. Broadly, the equities look weak while the dollar index can gain more sheen in the near term.

DOW JONES (46,558.47)

The outlook is bearish. Immediate resistance is around 47,300, and above that, 48,000-48,300 is the next strong resistance zone. Immediate support is at 46,450, and any bounce from here can be capped at 47,300 itself. The Dow can break 46,450 and fall to 45,000 in the coming weeks.

S&P 500 (6,632.19)

The index is under selling pressure. Immediate support is at 6,600, where a corrective bounce could take it higher to 6,750 but likely no further. The index is likely to break the 6,600 support eventually, potentially dragging it down to 6,400 in the coming weeks. While chances are high for a bounce from 6,400, it remains to be seen if that would be a trend reversal or just a corrective rally.

NASDAQ COMPOSITE (22,105.36)

The index has been facing strong resistance in the 22,800-23,000 region over the last few weeks. The price action indicates a gradual fall, with an important support around 21,400 likely to be tested soon. A break below that level can then drag the index down to 20,500 and even lower.

DOLLAR OUTLOOK

The dollar index (100.49) has risen well and closed above the psychological 100 mark. Price action over the last two weeks indicates that the upmove is gaining momentum. Supports are at 99.80 and 99.20.

A crucial resistance is around 101, which can be tested this week. Failure to breach 101 can trigger a corrective fall to 99.80, but looking at recent price action, chances are high for the index to breach 101 eventually. That would clear the way for a rise to 103-104. The index would have to fall below 99 and sustain below 101 to turn the outlook negative.

TREASURY YIELD

The US 10Yr Treasury Yield (4.28 per cent) has risen sharply, breaking above the key level of 4.2 per cent. Cluster of supports are in the 4.23-4.18 per cent region, while resistance is around 4.3 per cent. Failure to breach this hurdle can keep the yield in the range of 4.18-4.3 per cent.

FPIs sell ₹39,451 crore in Indian markets last week

RELENTLESS SELLING: Equities bore the brunt as ₹23,457.02 crore was sold in five sessions

Anupama Ghosh, Mumbai

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) remained net sellers in Indian markets for the fifth consecutive session on Friday, pulling out a net ₹7,491.51 crore that day, according to daily trends data released by NSDL. Over five trading sessions up to Friday, FPIs had pulled out a whopping ₹39,450.60 crore from Indian markets.

Equity bore the brunt of the selling, with net outflows of ₹7,375.05 crore on March 13. The stock exchange segment alone saw net equity sales of ₹7,311.10 crore, while the primary market and other segments recorded a net outflow of ₹63.95 crore. Gross equity purchases stood at ₹16,081.97 crore against gross sales of ₹23,457.02 crore.

MIXED IN DEBT

Debt instruments offered a mixed picture. The ‘Debt - General Limit’ turned positive, recording a net inflow of ₹503.92 crore, driven largely by primary market activity of ₹765.42 crore in purchases. ‘Debt - VRR’ also posted a marginal net inflow of ₹87.89 crore. However, ‘Debt - FAR’ remained under pressure with net outflows of ₹511.52 crore.

Mutual fund schemes together saw a net outflow of ₹197.72 crore, with debt schemes accounting for ₹153.36 crore of that total.

WEEKLY PEAK

The week’s selling was relentless. Daily net outflows ranged from ₹7,491.51 crore on March 13 to ₹8,405.83 crore on March 12, the heaviest single-day outflow of the week. March 11 saw outflows of ₹7,983.88 crore, followed by ₹7,960.37 crore on March 10 and ₹7,609.01 crore on March 9.

VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Ltd, noted that “The FPI selling continued unabated in March. FPIs were net sellers on all trading days in March. The total FPI selling through exchanges till March 13 stood at ₹54,455 crore.”

Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, said FIIs were “net cash sellers to the tune of ₹46,166.58 crore as of March 2026 (till date).” He described global equity markets as “remaining... under stress amid continued conflict in West Asia and the absence of off-ramps,” and stated that FPI “flows are expected to remain volatile.”

On the derivatives front, FPI open interest in index futures rose to 2,87,383 contracts (₹44,829.76 crore) on March 13, up from 2,69,670 contracts on March 12. Stock futures open interest stood at 68,45,218 contracts worth ₹4,23,622.66 crore. Index options open interest was at 29,03,070 contracts valued at ₹4,50,916.22 crore.

Stocks in the line of fire

DEJA VU: With war raging in West Asia, oil PSUs in India are under the spotlight. Are they value bets or value traps? Given the similarity, we draw parallels with the Russia-Ukraine war to decode the puzzle.

Nishanth Gopalakrishnan bl. research bureau

Is there enough LPG for India’s needs, is the burning question on everyone’s mind right now. The ongoing hostilities between US-Israel and Iran have squarely turned the spotlight on India’s oil infrastructure and the companies that own and operate it.

India imports over 90 per cent of the crude it consumes, and crude-based petroleum products form about 30 per cent of its energy mix. Given this situation, oil infrastructure—including oil fields, pipelines, refineries and marketing networks (fuel stations)—is critical for India’s energy security. Consequently, PSUs play a significant role across the infrastructure and the value chain in this space.

THE VALUE CHAIN

• Upstream: Companies such as ONGC and Oil India (OIL) handle exploration and production activities.
• Downstream: The three oil marketing companies (OMCs)—IOCL, BPCL and HPCL—along with two pure-play refiners, MRPL and CPCL, manage refining operations.
• Midstream: OMCs operate pipelines transporting crude and products, alongside dedicated operators like GAIL, focusing on storage and transportation.

The scale of these PSUs is massive: 170 mt per annum of refining capacity (two-thirds of the nation’s total), 35,000 km in pipelines, 92,000 retail fuel outlets, and ₹19 lakh crore ($210 billion) in revenue.

Despite this scale, their market values remain low at about ₹8 lakh crore, trading at paltry mid-single-digit or high single-digit PEs. Since the US-Iran war began, crude prices have climbed 42 per cent, causing OMC shares to crash between 15 and 20 per cent, making them appear even cheaper.

BRASS TACKS

The primary reason these companies do not fetch healthy valuations is their lack of control over market prices.

• Upstream: They profit when crude prices rise but cannot influence the price itself. Furthermore, the government may impose a windfall tax to limit their earnings during price surges.
• Refineries: Their prospects depend on gross refining margin (GRM)—the gross profit per barrel of crude processed. Earnings track global GRM benchmarks (like Singapore GRM), driven by global demand and crude prices. Government-imposed export duties on products like diesel are another risk factor.
• OMCs: While refineries might profit from higher GRMs, OMCs suffer marketing losses if the government does not allow them to raise retail prices (petrol, diesel, LPG) proportionately—a phenomenon known as under-recovery.

MIRRORING 2022-23

Today’s scenario closely resembles the Russia-Ukraine war of February 2022. Back then, crude prices shot up 17 per cent in just five trading days, eventually hitting a peak of $138 a barrel and sustaining between $100 and $120 for several months.

The current situation is arguably worse. A week into the war, crude gained 28 per cent, rising from $73 to $93. Crucially, while only 10 per cent of global crude trade was interrupted in 2022, this time over 20 per cent of global supply is at stake, as it passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

ENERGY ECONOMICS

Historical cycles show distinct patterns for different players:

• The 2022 Aftermath: In FY23, OMCs faced massive pain due to petrol/diesel price freezes and ₹30,000 crore in LPG under-recoveries. HPCL slipped into losses, while IOCL and BPCL saw EBITDA decline. In contrast, upstream players and standalone refiners gained; from the start of the war to their FY23 peaks, MRPL rose 189 per cent and CPCL 271 per cent.
• Recovery and New Pressures: FY24 saw a recovery for OMCs as crude corrected 14 per cent and retail prices remained unchanged. However, FY25 brought new challenges with falling GRMs and combined LPG under-recoveries ballooning to ₹41,000 crore.
• Recent Relief: In August 2025, the government announced a ₹30,000-crore one-time compensation to OMCs for LPG losses, payable in instalments through FY26 and FY27.

MARKET ACTION & VALUATION

Earnings in this sector are highly volatile, making the P/E ratio a misleading metric, especially for OMCs. For instance, BPCL’s P/E shot up to 35x in FY23 due to poor earnings, even as the stock was bottoming out.

A more reliable metric is the price-to-book value (P/B) ratio. Historically, the best buying opportunities for these stocks have occurred when their P/E was invalid or very high, and their P/B ratio was hitting prior bottoms. Investors looking for value bets in OMCs should consider their attractiveness as they trend closer to these P/B historical floors.

US set to release 86 m barrels from emergency crude oil reserves

Bloomberg

The Trump administration has started the process of a mammoth drawdown of the US emergency oil reserve, issuing a request to exchange 86 million barrels of crude oil. Deliveries from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which are part of a massive 172 million barrel release announced Wednesday, are expected to begin moving to markets by the end of next week, according to a Friday statement from the Energy Department.

The release is expected to take four months to complete and is part of a 400 million barrel effort coordinated with other nations. This initiative is aimed at lowering the prices of crude, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, which have climbed since the US-Israel invasion of Iran. The war has brought shipping traffic to a virtual standstill in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil flows.

The move has also eased political pressure on President Donald Trump to address rising fuel costs prior to November’s midterm elections. Under the terms of the exchange, companies will return the borrowed oil to the Energy Department with additional barrels as a premium.

Newspaper Summary 140326

 The article titled "War doesn’t need sensationalism" is found on page 2 in the New Delhi First section of the sources. Here is the text as it appears:

War doesn’t need sensationalism

Social media has been awash with “Dubai Cancelled” and similarly sensationalist content following the US-Israel attacks and Iran’s retaliation, and Dubai, among others in the region, is caught in the crossfire. Sujata Assomull was at home in her apartment in the multistorey Dubai Marina last weekend when debris from an intercepted drone hit the top floor. She was terrified, yes, but she writes that the municipality swung into action in an orderly fashion and quickly made residents feel safe. Dubai is a city that has provided livelihoods and homes to thousands of Indians across the board, and instead of spreading fear, writes Assom-.

The article titled "Don’t teach so close to me," written by Raja Sen, is a review of the Netflix series Vladimir starring Rachel Weisz., The article is reproduced below from the sources:

Don’t teach so close to me

Rachel Weisz has the kind of classical beauty that could launch ships or sink them, cheekbones like alabaster and eyes that smoulder by default, but her real genius is making that face a canvas for the uncontainable. In The Favourite (JioHotstar), her Lady Sarah is a political shark written like a Jane Austen heroine who’s mislaid her patience. She’s the mad queen’s lover, handler, speech writer, counsellor, bully and best friend, a single person embodying court, cabinet and confessional. It’s objectively absurd, yet Weisz sells it with cold authority. Across her career she’s done klutzes, idealists, addicts, cheats and twins, but Lady Sarah may be the purest expression of her singular gift: to make women who should be “too much” feel precisely, dangerously right.

In Disobedience she wrestles faith, lust and loss in a sweaty, selfish knot; she turns pulp peril into personal triumph in The Mummy; in The Constant Gardener she burns righteous; in Deep Blue Sea she crumbles gorgeously; in Dead Ringers, she—spectacularly—plays twins who devour life, a grand opera of double-derangement. Weisz never dials down her characters’ hunger or mess, instead amplifying it to truth, turning excess into essence. These are literary fever-dreams made flesh: too ambitious, too broken, too alive to be mere heroines.

In the new Netflix dramedy Vladimir, Weisz plays a hungry professor. Over eight snappy episodes, as she wrestles with lust (and guilt) for a younger, married colleague, the actress gives us a quick course in desire. It’s well worth attending. As we know from college, even when the course doesn’t specifically teach you anything new, the right professor is worth your time. Two minutes in, it’s clear that this is a Fleabag facsimile, an aging academic take on that magnificent Phoebe Waller-Bridge series. Weisz keeps breaking, and confiding in, the fourth wall, and her character is never referred to by name—something that may have worked well in the books, but loses its charm when the subtitles constantly refer to her as protagonist (“Protagonist sighs”). We first meet Weisz midway through what looks like a crime, and then we the viewers are swiftly whisked—in trite-and-tested Netflix ways—to when the chaos began.

“It was a different time.” These words appear on screen, in parenthesis, below the “Six Weeks Earlier” text, and that bracketed phrase forms the narrative backbone—not least because far too many of the characters keep saying it. That “back in my day” consideration is one many ageing characters (and viewers) lean on too heavily to explain and dismiss and make sense of and hide behind to excuse sins that, one may have hoped, would be past their sell-by date. The lens for acceptable behaviour has shifted, though what Vladimir tries to emphasise—as it props up competing arguments from competing generations against one another—is that everyone has a lens entirely their own.

The series is named like a Putin biography because of the object of the protagonist’s attentions: Vladimir Vladinski, a young and fit professor with a name as absurdly alliterative as the characters in Nabokov’s Lolita. The protagonist is immediately drawn to this hunk of man-meat, a Vladimir who quotes Vladimir, and her hunger pangs manifest themselves in quick, hot cutaways where she imagines that the two of them weren’t merely discussing salads in front of the faculty but instead making loud and passionate love.

Vladimir is played by Leo Woodall, a sort of muscular Charlie Brown figure with a “gosh, shucks” kind of scruffy appeal, the kind of man who flirts openly and then immediately walks it back with an exaggeratedly friendly emoji. He doesn’t seem particularly charismatic or witty or even nice, from what he texts to the way he treats his wife, but in the protagonist’s eyes, raising him to the pedestal of a literary lover, he can do no wrong. He seems unworthy of Weisz, but then who wouldn’t be?

John Slattery plays, in his trademark way, her husband John, another creepy but worldly silver fox, the kind of man calls for whose cancellation would be drowned out by calls for his tell-all memoir. He is facing a disciplinary trial for bedding students over the years, and Weisz—while privately repelled—is by his side because they had an open marriage (called, in different times, “an arrangement”) and because, as she plaintively tells confused students who wonder why she isn’t calling him out, the consensual affairs he had “were fun not despite the power dynamic, but because of it.”

Their marriage is prickly but plausible. She tells him to do something about his eyebrows, he suggests she get her privates waxed. Their intimacy, their repugnance, their pettiness, all feels lived-in. The actors are, however, better than the series. Weisz is wonderful as the articulate cougar, playing it with just enough of a Nigella Lawson oversexedness. She makes the fourth wall feel like a confessional, but the show itself feels eminently forgettable. The kind of airport-read that the Wharton-wielding protagonist would never read.

The world of academia and cancellation is mired frequently for fiction these days. The Chair (Netflix), starring Sandra Oh, is a superb satire on academia and entitlement, that successfully skewers both sides instead of, like this [series]...

The article titled "Can AI make speakers truly smart?", written by Abhishek Baxi, is located on page 2 in the New Delhi First section of the sources. The text available in the sources is as follows:

Can AI make speakers truly smart?

The first wave of voice assistants promised a future where we would talk to our homes as naturally as we talk to each other. Instead, we got a decade of reminders, timers and weather updates. Now, with artificial intelligence reshaping every corner of consumer tech, the smart speaker is poised for a reboot.

AI-powered assistants like Alexa+ and Gemini could deliver the truly conversational, context-aware home assistant we’ve been waiting for, writes Abhishek Baxi after spending time using Amazon’s new Echo Show 8. The custom-designed AZ3 Pro chip is clearly built for heavier workloads and the new edge processing capabilities.

The article titled "Tax dept’s nudges trim refund claims by ₹2,000 crore," written by Gireesh Chandra Prasad, is found on page 14 of the sources. It is reproduced below:

Tax dept’s nudges trim refund claims by ₹2,000 crore

In FY26, 91.2 million income tax returns were filed up to 28 February. The tax department has issued ₹3.34 trillion in tax refunds this financial year, up to 10 February.

More than five million income tax returns were revised after the tax department flagged incorrect or bogus deduction claims last year, lowering refund claims by ₹2,000 crore, Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) chairperson Ravi Agrawal told a parliamentary committee. He said the department had two choices when it found bogus claims: initiate a scrutiny or request taxpayers to update returns based on information with the authority; and it chose the latter, per a report tabled by the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Finance in Lok Sabha on Thursday.

The report, quoting the CBDT chairman, said that in July 2025 the department carried out verifications into bogus deduction claims, including donations and deductions under Section 80G of the Income Tax Act, 1961, which covers contributions to charitable organisations and relief funds. The exercise shows a substantial number of fraudulent or incorrect claims, he said. The issue before the department was how to proceed and enforce the necessary corrections, and identify high-risk refunds, the chairman said.

“Notwithstanding the fact that we had the information, one option before us was to proceed with scrutiny, but we did not adopt that course. Instead, we nudged the taxpayers and requested that they review the income tax returns they had filed and modify the returns, if required,” the report quoted the chairman as saying.

The department has issued ₹3.34 trillion in tax refunds this fiscal year, up to 10 February; about 19% lower than the refunds issued a year ago. These are refunds on returns filed in FY26 pertaining to income earned in FY25. In FY26, 91.2 million tax returns were filed up to 28 February. This is seen up by end March; in FY25, 91 million returns were filed.

The trend also comes after a rejig in personal income tax slabs and a hike in tax rebate in the FY26 budget meant to benefit taxpayers, including the middle class. The tax cuts necessitated enhanced monitoring and compliance to widen and deepen the tax base.

The article titled "Indian seaweed is having a moment," written by Sayoni Bhaduri, is found on page 8 of the sources. It explores how chefs and mixologists are beginning to prize local species for their umami and climate-smart profile.

Indian seaweed is having a moment Chefs and mixologists are using the local species in garnishes and broths, and to flavour miso, crackers and cocktails

When Giles Knapton, the founder and director of Coco Shambhala, a luxury boutique property in Sindhudurg, Maharashtra, discovered the diversity of seaweed along the Konkan coast, it felt both nostalgic and full of culinary possibilities. “I grew up eating dulse, a dark-red seaweed, in Ireland, first as a snack and later paired with drinks. Seaweed here reminded me of home, yet presented a new terroir of waters, textures and flavour profiles,” he says.

The team at Coco Shambhala, which opened in 2017, is running trials of risottos, salads, stir-fries and fritters that highlight the natural umami of local seaweed. They’re even trying out a seaweed-infused varan (dal). Some of these kitchen experiments will eventually make it to the menu.

With an approximately 12,000km coastline, India has largely overlooked seaweed as an ingredient, relying instead on imported varieties like nori and wakame from Japan, and gim from South Korea. India has a thriving seaweed economy through agar—a vegan alternative to gelatin widely used in icing, ice creams and marshmallows. According to data from the Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute, the country’s total seaweed production was 72,385 tonnes in 2023. With the help of marine specialists, entrepreneurs and chefs, India’s ulva and sargassum seaweed species are making their way on to our plates.

LITTLE LOCAL LORE There are more than 800 varieties of seaweed flourishing in the Indian waters, but there is very little recorded of it in regional foodlore. There are fleeting anecdotal mentions, as Arnav Mariwala, the founder and CEO of MariTide, a seaweed cultivation and processing company in Devgad, Maharashtra, found. “A family from Ratnagiri said they make shaivalachi bhaji with jawla or seaweed with dried shrimp (shaival is Marathi for seaweed/algae and jawla baby shrimp), but we couldn’t verify it with locals,” he says.

“Coastal communities always had an abundance of fresh vegetables and seafood,” says Poornima Somayaji, founder of Aragma restaurant in Pune. “There simply wasn’t a need to look for greens under the ocean.” The disinterest is perhaps also due to seaweed’s taste, an intense savoury flavour. While the spatoglossum seaweed carries mouth-puckering tartness of a raw mango, dictyota is chewy with bitter notes, and can be used as a supporting ingredient to add contrast and complexity to salads and seafood dishes. The most common species of edible seaweed in India is sargassum, which is widely available in the Arabian Sea. It is the most popular Indian seaweed genus used by chefs, most commonly for stocks and dashi. Beyond broths, seaweed can also be brined as pickles, seasoned with spices as garnishes, or used with condiments like the Japanese furikake.

American chef Jay Spenard, who hosts private cooking classes in Goa, prepares a dashi made with sargassum and shiitake mushrooms for a mushroom risotto. “Shiitake is already an umami-bomb, but by adding the seaweed to the dashi, there is a subtle oceanic oomph in the risotto,” he explains.

FOOD AND SCIENCE Mariwala discovered the potential of seaweed in California while studying coastal ecosystems and climate-resilient engineering. Back in India in 2023, he launched MariTide, a regenerative seaweed cultivation startup that is scaling up edible seaweed supply chains with the help of technology. The company annually harvests about two tonnes of ulva, or sea lettuce, from the open sea. He supplies dehydrated seaweed, priced at ₹800-1,000 for 100g, to restaurants such as Ground Up in Pune, Lovefools in Mumbai and Yazu in Mumbai, Goa and Indore. Mariwala plans to open an online shop in April.

Gabriella D’Cruz, a Goa-based marine conservationist, who founded The Good Ocean in 2022, says seaweed is a nutrient powerhouse and a sustainable ingredient. “Some species of seaweed can have up to 30-40% protein content, which is comparable to soy. These species can be selectively harvested if vegan protein is the goal,” she adds.

Her dehumidifying drying technique locks in all the nutrients and keeps the dehydrated seaweed shelf stable for two years. The Good Ocean has collaborated with Atmosphere Studio, a Delhi-based kombucha and vegan snacks brand, to create almond flour seaweed crackers, inspired by the Japanese seasoning furikake, combining sesame, garlic, chilli, and local sargassum. Both Mariwala and D’Cruz are working with chefs to create dishes that highlight the umami-rich, earthy flavour of local seaweed. D’Cruz also conducts workshops for chefs and food enthusiasts. She recently partnered with Goa’s Bar Outrigger for a workshop, where the bar team made three cocktails with seaweed.

Arijit Bose, co-founder of Bar Outrigger, says: “We used Gabriella’s seaweed furikake as a component in our Picante and Punch. The Picante worked with the spices in the furikake, while the pineapple juice in the Punch worked very well with the seaweed salt.”

ON THE MENU Seaweed has the potential to be the next soy sauce, a flavour that deeply impacts our palates, believes Sarita Pereira, chief executive chef at Mumbai’s Lovefools restaurant. She is preparing to relaunch her chef’s table this month, for which she plans to create a dish with local seaweed sourced from MariTide.

For his monsoon menu in 2024, Amit Ghorpade, head chef of Aragma in Pune, was inspired by the Kolhapuri pandhra rassa. “Pandhra rassa is all about umami for me,” he says. “The umami of the seaweed was a natural fit in the dish, quite similar to how you would use it in ramen.” Ghorpade served the pandhra-style broth with masoor dal and chicken meatballs. In another seafood-themed menu, he concluded the meal with a dessert starring Indian seaweed from The Good Ocean. “It was a watermelon and strawberry dessert where I had used sargassum seaweed in a pickle form.”

Gayatri Desai, the chef and founder of Pune’s Ground Up restaurant, is also working on a seaweed miso that she will launch on the restaurant’s e-shop in the next few weeks. Desai has been experimenting with the seaweed miso in desserts and salads, and will introduce it in her tasting menus. Her experiments have led her to infuse seaweed into tamari or soy sauce. “I recently discovered that one of the seaweed varieties has a flavour similar to matcha, when we were trying to make different teas with rice,” she adds.

For Knapton, Indian seaweed tends to be “naturally sweeter and milder compared to Irish varieties.” Perhaps one of the first chefs to experiment with the local genus is Varun Totlani of Mumbai’s Masque restaurant. A free-diving excursion in Goa with D’Cruz in 2023 led to a culinary revelation for him. In the same year, he served Seaweed and Ponkh Bhel, a salad of cucumber, green tomato and raw mango topped with pickled seaweed, crispy ponkh, and crushed seaweed.

Totlani’s tasting menus often spotlight a variety of seaweed—ulva and sargassum from The Good Ocean. The biggest challenge, according to him, is that it is a delicate ingredient and “building a consistent supply chain to get it from the coast to the kitchen while it is still fresh, takes a lot of time and effort.” He also lists perception as a hurdle, where vegetarians instinctively compare the taste to seafood. Last year, at Bar Paradox, the sister bar of Masque, he served sea grapes as a final touch on his barramundi ceviche.

Indian seaweed has the potential to become the next big ingredient in dining, thanks to its deep umami flavour, strong nutritional value and sustainable nature. Reliable year-round access can transform this coastal gem into a premium staple on modern Indian tables.

The article titled "Trai plans to make telcos pay for bulk spam calls," written by Jatin Grover, is found on page 16 of the sources. It is reproduced below:

Trai plans to make telcos pay for bulk spam calls

Jatin Grover New Delhi

The telecom regulator has proposed an additional charge and penalty on operators that allow bulk spam calls and messages, as the menace has exploded with the rise of automation.

A 5 paise per minute termination charge will have to be paid by the operator from whose network robocalls originate—from numbers other than 1400 or 1600 series—to the carrier which receives such calls, according to the proposal released by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) on Friday. No termination charge is levied on domestic voice calls in India currently. Trai has also proposed financial penalties on operators who improperly register or allow the use of wrong SMS headers and content templates for promotional SMSes.

“The bulk callers take advantage of cheaper routes meant for normal person-to-person (P2P) calls, and misuse them for unsolicited A2P (application-to-person or automated) calling,” Trai said in a consultation on draft Telecom Commercial Communications Customer Preference (Third Amendment) Regulations, 2026. It has invited comments by 12 April. “Accordingly, it felt necessary to have a deterrent in the form of termination charge, since A2P calls are made in bulk at the OAP (originating access provider) end and passed onto the network of the TAP (terminating access provider),” the regulator said.

The Telecom Commercial Communications Customer Preference Regulations (TCCCPR) 2018 allow the regulator to impose penalties of up to ₹10 lakh per instance on operators for failure to curb spam. While Trai noted technical challenges operators face in differentiating robotic calls from normal calls, it proposed that bulk callers must pre-declare their use of A2P calling. “In case the bulk caller fails to declare use of A2P calling, all such calls shall be treated as UCC (unsolicited commercial communication) and action shall be taken by the access providers as per the regulatory provisions,” Trai said.

The termination charges for such A2P calls will be exempted if originated at the direction of the central and state governments, constitutional bodies, Trai or any agency authorized by the authority, in the larger public interest. The regulator wants the telecom companies to strengthen the use of AI/ML-based systems to detect spam calls and messages. So far, operators use AI to warn customers about suspected spam, but now they must also take regulatory action against senders when AI detects possible spamming activity, Trai said.

It has been proposed that the telecom operator must re-verify the sender’s know-your-customer (KYC) documents and, if the activity continues, conduct physical verification of the sender. If the AI system has flagged a sender as suspected spam in the last 10 days, action can start with just three customer complaints (against five needed earlier), allowing faster action against spam senders.

Key indices lose 5.5% in worst week in 15 months as oil surges FUELLING CRISIS. FIIs sell relentlessly; ₹20 lakh crore wiped out in m-cap; volatility rises

Anupama Ghosh Mumbai

Markets capped their worst week in over 15 months on Friday, with investors losing about ₹20 lakh crore in market capitalisation over five sessions as the US/Israel-Iran conflict drove crude oil past $100 per barrel and pushed the rupee to an all-time low. The BSE Sensex plunged 1,470.50 points, or 1.93 per cent, on Friday to close at 74,563.92, while the Nifty 50 fell 488.05 points, or 2.06 per cent, to settle at 23,151.10 — a fresh 10-month low. The BSE market-cap dropped to ₹430.02 lakh crore on Friday alone, a single session wipe-out of ₹9.7 lakh crore. For the week, the Sensex shed 7,375 points, or 5.5 per cent, and the Nifty lost 1,300 points, or 5.3 per cent — marking Nifty’s worst weekly fall since the Covid pandemic crash of March 2020.

ALL SECTORS IN RED Sectoral damage was sweeping. Nifty Bank fell 7 per cent; Nifty Auto plunged over 10.5 per cent, its worst weekly performance since March 2020; Nifty Midcap shed 4.6 per cent; and Nifty SmallCap fell 3.65 per cent. On the BSE, 3,439 stocks declined against 858 advances; 563 stocks hit 52-week lows.

Three developments shook the markets. One, the closing of the Strait of Hormuz that sent Brent crude surging, a critical blow for India, which imports nearly 88 per cent of its oil.

RUPEE AT NEW LOW Two, the rupee hitting an all-time low of 92.45 per dollar amid relentless FII outflows even as the RBI intervened by selling dollars. According to provisional data, FIIs off-loaded shares worth ₹10,716.64 crore. Three, the Trump administration’s trade investigation into India added another layer of uncertainty. The India VIX climbed above 22, up over 13 per cent for the week.

GOLD, SILVER DOWN Gold prices fell by ₹1,904 on Friday to ₹1,58,399 per 10 g against ₹1,60,303 logged on Thursday due to a weak trend in the global markets. Similarly, silver was down at ₹2,60,488 per kg against ₹2,68,301, according to the Indian Bullion and Jewellers Association of India.

Vikram Kasat, Head Advisory at PL Capital, said the sell-off appeared more sentiment-driven than fundamental. “The correction appears more sentiment-driven rather than a reflection of weakening domestic fundamentals. Any meaningful correction should be seen as an opportunity for long-term investors to gradually accumulate quality large-caps and sector leaders with strong earnings visibility,” he added.

Dilip Parmar, Senior Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, pointed out that the pressure on the rupee will not go away soon. “Surging global crude oil prices and sustained foreign fund outflows, amid heightened risk aversion, have kept the rupee under significant pressure,” he said.

‘STRAIT’ TALK: PM Narendra Modi calls Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, flags Hormuz blockade risks to LPG supplies

RAY OF HOPE. Tehran says expect good news on energy supply in near future after Modi dials Iranian President

Rishi Ranjan Kala New Delhi

India has stepped up negotiations with Iran, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi dialling Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and the government conceding that continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a “matter of concern”, especially with regard to LPG supplies. On Friday, Iran’s Ambassador to India Mohammad Fathali, said: “We are trying to solve the problem and you can expect good news in the near future".

Meanwhile, domestic refineries have increased production of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and the government has maintained that there is “no crisis” or “shortage” for households. “This is an issue of concern for us, particularly with a major portion of our imports [of LPG] coming from the Strait of Hormuz. The closure of SoH is a little matter of concern,” said Sujata Sharma, Joint Secretary at the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, on Friday.

India consumed 33 million tonnes (mt) LPG in FY25, of which 20.67 mt was imported. Of the total imports, almost 90 per cent came from West Asia via the Strait. “The government’s highest priority is to ensure uninterrupted LPG supplies to households. Supplies are also being ensured for critical sectors like hospitals, educational institutions and other essential services,” she said.

SUFFICIENT STOCKS

Sharma noted that domestic LPG production from refineries has increased by over 30 per cent (since March 5) compared to production before the crisis. Based on Oil Ministry’s data, India’s average daily production of LPG stood at 37,355 tonnes in January 2026. Compared with January’s output, India’s average daily LPG production may have increased to 48.562 tonnes.

The MoPNG official stressed that the country has no shortfall of natural gas (liquefied natural gas). Besides, India’s crude oil supply is in “good position” and refinery inventory is “fine”. She also emphasised that there is “no shortage” of piped natural gas (PNG), which is supplied to households for cooking.

Sharma said there are roughly 60 lakh LPG-using households that are near city gas distribution (CGD) centres and can “immediately” switch to PNG. More than 1.5 crore PNG households in India are currently being provided with natural gas and this will continue without any hindrance.

“In order to ease supply concerns related to LPG, the government is directing CGD entities to offer new PNG connections to the affected commercial and industrial consumers in urban centres,” she added. The government has also requested all concerned local bodies, highway authorities and State governments to expedite clearances for laying of pipeline by CGD entities.

IRAN PARLEYS

As India rushed to manage its limited LPG supplies, PM Modi on Thursday night dialled Iranian President Pezeshkian over the “serious situation” in West Asia. “Had a conversation with Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian, to discuss the serious situation in the region. Expressed deep concern over the escalation of tensions and the loss of civilian lives as well as damage to civilian infrastructure,” the Prime Minister posted on social media platform X.

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar also held talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi on Thursday and Friday. Both leaders have spoken four times since the US-Israel offensive against Iran began (February 28). On Friday, Iran’s Ambassador to India Fathali said, “We are trying to solve the problem, and you can expect good news in the near future”.

Iran’s Supreme Leader in India, Abdul Majid Hakeem Ilahi said: “A complete solution is that leaders of the world have to come together”. They should convince President Trump that this war is against civilians and that it has to stop, he added. “They should also put pressure on the Zionist regime to stop this war. We didn’t create this war. We are ready to share our blood on the earth, but not ready to sell our dignity,” he said.

Sugar industry urges govt to raise ethanol blending

SECTOR DEMAND. Deliberations begin with Food Minister to increase it above 20%, stressing ethanol’s role in energy security and farmer support

Prabhudatta Mishra New Delhi

Encouraged by a higher share of ethanol supplied against commitments compared with grain-based distilleries, the sugar industry has urged Food Minister Pralhad Joshi to consider raising ethanol blending beyond the current 20 per cent. Government sources indicated that deliberations have begun on increasing ethanol usage, as significant production capacity remains under-utilised due to lower demand. One option under consideration is raising the blending level above E20. Joshi is learnt to have assured industry representatives that the government would take up the ethanol issue once the current pressures on LPG and crude oil ease.

On March 11, Indian Sugar & Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) President Niraj Shirgaokar and Director-General Deepak Ballani met Joshi and discussed challenges facing the sugar and bio-energy sector, the industry body said in a social media post.

BIOFUELS’ ROLE

“India’s heavy dependence on imported crude oil and LPG makes the country vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions and price volatility. Domestic biofuel production, particularly ethanol from sugarcane, must therefore be viewed not only as an agricultural or environmental initiative but as a strategic pillar of national energy security,” Ballani told businessline.

The ethanol blending programme has already helped cut crude import dependence, save foreign exchange and provide a stable income stream to farmers, he said. “A clear policy roadmap to scale up ethanol usage will help cushion the country against global fuel shocks while strengthening rural economies and accelerating the transition to cleaner energy,” Ballani added. The meeting also discussed the evolving geopolitical situation in global energy markets, the need to accelerate ethanol blending in India, expansion of blending infrastructure and the roadmap beyond E20, ISMA said earlier.

SUPPLY PROGRESS

According to industry sources, the sugar industry supplied 119 crore litres of ethanol — 41 per cent of its committed quantity of 292 crore litres — during November-February of the current ethanol supply year (ESY). This included 94 crore litres from sugarcane juice, 21 crore litres from B-heavy molasses and 4 crore litres from C-heavy molasses supplied to oil marketing companies (OMCs).

In comparison, grain-based distilleries supplied 209 crore litres — 27 per cent of their committed 766 crore litres. This comprised 123 crore litres from maize, 69 crore litres from FCI rice and 17 crore litres from 100 per cent broken rice.

RURAL ECONOMY

ISMA said on Friday that the ethanol blending programme (EBP) is emerging as a transformative initiative that reduces reliance on imported fossil fuels while creating new opportunities for the sugar, bio-energy and agricultural sectors. Expanding ethanol blending and building a robust bioenergy ecosystem can play a strategic role in cutting fossil fuel imports while strengthening the rural economy, it said.

“Ethanol supply has increased from 38 crore litres in 2014 to over 660 crore litres, generating ₹1.18 lakh crore in payments to farmers and saving about ₹1.36 lakh crore in foreign exchange through reduced crude imports,” the association said.

Can US afford Trump’s Iran war?

PERILOUS PATH. It will considerably dent the US budget at a time when the country’s public finances are unsustainable

Desmond Lachman

Until recently, one of the MAGA movement’s most deeply held convictions was that American blood and treasure should not be expended abroad when Americans — and the American Dream — are suffering at home. Yet now the movement’s leader, President Donald Trump, has rushed headlong into a costly war against Iran.

The US-Israeli campaign against the Islamic Republic is bound to put a considerable dent in the US budget at a time when the country’s public finances already are on an unsustainable path. It is also bound to continue pushing up international oil and gas prices at a time when the US already has an affordability problem. Neither outcome bodes well for US inflation and employment, with the outlook already grim following an unexpectedly negative monthly jobs report.

Even before the start of the Iran war, Trump suggested that the US needed a substantial expansion of its defence budget, proposing to increase it by $500 billion per year from its current level of $1 trillion. Now that the US is engaged in a full-scale war that could drag on indefinitely and upend the world’s geopolitical map, Trump’s case for a significant increase in defence spending would seem to have grown even stronger.

Of course, it is too early to gauge the direct costs of the war, since nobody knows how long and intensive it will be. But we do know that it is currently costing around $1 billion per day. The bill for the month-long conflict that Trump is anticipating therefore would approach $50 billion, with the costs continuing to rise the longer the war continues.

Beyond the direct costs of replacing US ammunition and equipment, there will be other reasons for augmenting the defence budget. For starters, the Pentagon may need to prepare for a scenario in which the entire Middle East is destabilised, especially if the Trump administration follows through on arming the Iranian Kurds, which will antagonise Turkey and perhaps incite other separatist movements within Iran. Second, with America’s attention diverted, Russia and China could see an opportunity to press their claims in Ukraine and Taiwan, respectively, demanding even greater US military spending to maintain deterrence.

NO FREE LUNCHES

As the Nobel laureate economist Milton Friedman was fond of saying, there is no such thing as a free lunch. Nowhere is this maxim more aptly applied than to military interventions. The wars in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan all demonstrated that the US is not good at choosing between guns and butter. It always seems to want both, even though pursuing both risks generating inflationary pressure.

This is an especially relevant concern today. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the US can expect to run budget deficits exceeding 6 per cent of GDP as far as the eye can see. That means it is on track to exceed the debt-to-GDP ratio at the end of World War II.

The Trump administration may not care about America’s deteriorating public finances, but bond markets certainly do. Normally when geopolitical tensions are heightened, international investors rush towards the safety of US Treasuries. But in yet another sign that foreign investors might be losing their appetite for US debt, bond yields have been rising since the start of the Iran war.

With the US government financing a $2 trillion budget deficit and rolling over around $9 trillion in maturing bonds this year, a loss of foreign appetite for its debt is the last thing it needs. The US also is in no position to absorb an energy-price shock. But that is what seems to be in store. In its fight for survival, the Iranian regime is desperately trying to export the war to its Gulf neighbours and disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply passes. On March 4, Goldman Sachs estimated that a five-week closure of this crucial waterway could send oil prices over $100 per barrel. In fact, that threshold has now already been breached.

OIL PRICE WORRIES

Even though the US economy is far less dependent on oil imports than it was during previous energy-price surges, it certainly would not be immune to a near doubling of the oil price since the start of the year. The International Monetary Fund estimates that, “If energy prices sustain just a 10 per cent increase over a period of one year, this would add 0.4 percentage point to inflation and slow economic growth by 0.1-0.2 per cent” globally.

Such stagflationary effects would further compound an already difficult budget situation by reducing tax revenues. The political strategist James Carville famously said that when it comes to winning elections, the economy is everything. If he is still right, a prolonged Iranian war could spell real trouble for Trump’s Republicans in November’s midterms. If the US does get a combination of a bond-market crisis, higher inflation, and an economic slowdown, Trump and his party may come to regret their betrayal of the “America First” agenda.

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The writer is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and a former deputy director of the IMF. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2026

On Friday, the total market capitalisation loss was ₹9.7 lakh crore. This single-session wipe-out saw the BSE market cap drop to ₹430.02 lakh crore.

While Friday experienced a significant drop, investors lost approximately ₹20 lakh crore in market capitalisation over the course of the full five-session week. This weekly decline was driven by escalating West Asian conflicts, crude oil prices surpassing $100 per barrel, and the rupee hitting an all-time low.