Here is the complete article reproduced from Page 1 and Page 6 of the August 20, 2026 edition of Mint:
Market regulator weighs setting limits on lookalike passive funds
(Published on Page 1 and continued on Page 6)
[Page 1 Section]
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is exploring setting limits on the number of lookalike passive funds that mutual fund houses can launch, as part of efforts to reduce clutter and protect retail investors, two people familiar with the development said.
The market regulator is looking into setting limits on lookalike passive funds—index funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track the same benchmark, such as the Nifty 50, Sensex, or Nifty Bank, or closely related indices. Currently, there is no limit on the number of passive funds an asset management company (AMC) can launch on the same index, whereas on the active side, AMCs are allowed to have only one fund per category (excluding thematic funds).
[Page 6 Continuation]
...[so that their product lines] could be streamlined, one of the people cited above said on the condition of anonymity.
The market regulator is considering a proposal that would restrict the number of index funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track the same benchmark index or similar indices, such as the Nifty 50 or Sensex, the people said.
Currently, there is no cap on the number of passive funds an asset management company (AMC) can launch. On the active side, where a fund manager selects which stocks to buy, only one fund per category is permitted, except for thematic funds. However, thematic passive funds have picked up significantly.
Launched in the past year, some of these passive funds have seen a surge in inflows, particularly from retail investors. Market participants argue that having multiple funds tracking the same index can confuse investors and create unnecessary complexity, [and Sebi wants to rationalize them in] order so as to make them more distinct.
According to the proposal under consideration, Sebi may restrict the number of lookalike passive funds an AMC can offer, or set a cap on the total number of passive funds that can track a single index across the industry.
The move is aimed at preventing overcrowding in the passive space and ensuring that AMCs offer diverse investment options.
"There is a growing feeling that we are seeing too many identical passive products, which doesn't help the investor. A limit would encourage AMCs to innovate and look at other indices or asset classes," said the second person, an industry consultant.
An email sent to Sebi seeking comment remained unanswered.
In February, the regulator had capped portfolios of foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to protect equity schemes with other mutual funds, barring large-cap funds from investing in lookalike schemes of other AMCs.
That restriction was aimed at curbing lookalike passive funds' assets, which stood at ₹4.25 trillion as of March 2026, according to Amfi.
With the rise of passive investing, lookalike funds have become a key area of focus for Sebi. In the past five years, the asset base of passive funds has grown from ₹1.5 trillion to ₹10 trillion, according to Amfi.
Here is the complete reproduction of the Plain Facts feature article, "The Economics of India's Toll Roads," from Page 5 of Mint (August 20, 2026):
PLAIN FACTS
THE ECONOMICS OF INDIA'S TOLL ROADS
By Payas Gokhale
India’s highways are becoming a bigger business for companies and the government. Toll collections touched ₹64,400 crore in fiscal year 2025 (FY25), with toll plazas and transactions reaching 3.81 billion. The creation of Indian Highways Management Company Ltd (IHMCL) in 2012 and the launch of the National Electronic Toll Collection (NETC) programme in 2014 paved the way for nationwide FASTag, turning toll collection into a rich source of data on traffic, revenues, and highway concessions. Data by IHMCL now reveals where toll plazas are concentrated, top revenue corridors, key contributors, private operator market share, and the financial impact of FASTag annual passes. Mint explores.
1. TOLL MAP
North and west dominate India’s toll map, reflecting its economic corridors
The NETC network expanded from around 300 toll plazas in 2016 to 1,100 in March 2025, adding roughly 100 plazas a year. Driven by mandatory FASTag adoption and accelerated expressway construction, these plazas, which control main lines, remain heavily concentrated along national highways.
As expected, coverage is highest in northern and western India and around major metropolitan hubs like Delhi-NCR, Mumbai, and Bengaluru. This spatial clustering directly mirrors the country’s primary industrial corridors, high-density freight routes, and port links. The eastern region and Himalayan states, by contrast, have sparser coverage due to geographical constraints and lower infrastructure development.
Within this network, Rajasthan (109), Uttar Pradesh (106), and Maharashtra (95) host the highest number of toll plazas—together accounting for over one-third of the national total—driven by extensive road networks and heavy traffic volumes.
2. COLLECTION HOTSPOTS
Most of India’s top toll plazas are clustered along the Golden Quadrilateral
The highest toll collections are concentrated along India’s busiest highways. All 15 of the highest-grossing toll plazas in FY25 were located on the Golden Quadrilateral, the centerpiece of India’s highway expansion. The northwestern arm, particularly the Delhi-Mumbai corridor, dominates the list.
Together, these plazas collected over ₹5,400 crore in FY25, or 8% of total toll collections. Of these, nine plazas are on the Delhi-Mumbai corridor, which accounted for ₹3,210 crore, or nearly 60% of top 15 collections.
The Shahjahanpur plaza in Neemrana, Rajasthan, operated by Delhi City Expressway Pvt Ltd, topped the list with ₹410 crore in toll collections in FY25, up from fourth position in FY24. This was nearly eight times the average toll collection of ₹58 crore per plaza in FY25. Higher collections at the top plazas are not necessarily driven by higher traffic. Their average transaction value is 1.4% above the national average, while only four are among the 15 busiest plazas.
Top 5 Toll Plazas by Revenue (FY25):
- Shahjahanpur (Rajasthan): ₹410 crore (Delhi-Mumbai Corridor)
- Lalanagar (Uttar Pradesh): ₹291 crore
- Chalgeria (West Bengal): ₹240 crore
- Ghoti (Maharashtra): ₹222 crore
- Jhakri (Haryana): ₹215 crore
3. TOLL PAYERS
Private vehicles had more transactions but generated lower value in recent quarters
In FY25, toll plaza transactions rose 14% year on year to 3.81 billion, and total toll collections rose 13% to ₹64,400 crore. Private vehicles (cars, jeeps, and vans) accounted for 62% of transactions but only 21% of total revenue, reflecting their lower toll rates. At the Shahjahanpur plaza, for instance, the one-way toll is ₹165 for a private vehicle, ₹355 for a bus or truck, and more than ₹1,000 for vehicles with four or more axles.
The rollout of the FASTag annual pass in August 2025 also appears to have reduced the toll burden on private vehicles in recent quarters. Revenue from private vehicles declined even as transactions continued to rise, pointing to a lower effective toll burden on these users. The annual pass has eased costs for frequent private-vehicle commuters, but India’s tolling system has long faced criticism for "tolling in perpetuity"—even after project expansion costs have been recovered. A Public Accounts Committee report tabled in Parliament in August 2025 flagged the issue.
- Share of Transactions: Private Vehicles (62%) vs. Commercial Vehicles (38%)
- Share of Revenue Generated: Private Vehicles (21%) vs. Commercial Vehicles (79%)
4. PRIVATE PREMIUM
Private operators run fewer toll plazas but generate half of the total revenue
Private participation in India’s highway sector has evolved over the past three decades. Until 2012, the government relied heavily on private players to build and toll roads while taking on traffic risk. Rising interest rates, over-optimistic traffic projections, and stalled projects led to a shift in the mid-2010s to government-funded engineering, procurement, and construction.
Since 2018, the government has sought to revive private participation through risk-sharing and asset-monetization models such as the hybrid annuity model and toll-operate-transfer. In FY25, private concessionaires operated 27% of toll plazas but generated half (50%) of total revenues. Their Average Transaction Value (ATV) was about 11% higher than that of public plazas.
Average collection at private plazas was ₹10.9 crore, nearly three times the ₹3.8 crore average for public plazas. Private players' share in toll plazas increased from 24% in FY23, suggesting private participation is increasingly concentrated in high-traffic, high-revenue corridors.
Share of Plazas & Revenue by Operator Type (FY23–FY25):
- Plazas Share:
- FY23: Private: 24% | Public: 76%
- FY24: Private: 26% | Public: 74%
- FY25: Private: 27% | Public: 73%
- Revenue Share:
- FY23: Private: 45% | Public: 55%
- FY24: Private: 48% | Public: 52%
- FY25: Private: 50% | Public: 50%
5. ROAD RULERS
India's top eight private toll operators account for about 20% of total collections
Around 300 private entities held highway toll concessions in FY25. The top eight accounted for about a fifth of total collections. IRB Infrastructure is the largest player by toll collections, followed by Cube Highways. IndInfravit's portfolio includes the Vashal toll plaza on the Ahmedabad-Vadodara highway and the Islampur toll plaza on NH-48.
L&T IDPL ranked fourth at ₹1,131 crore, with the Vadodara-Bharuch toll plaza under its purview. Other concessionaires include Reliance Infrastructure, Ashoka Buildcon, and Welspun Enterprises. This has also seen growing participation from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) such as Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) and Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan (OTPP), highlighting a broader shift in private capital from greenfield development to monetizing operational, income-generating highway assets.
Toll Revenue Details of Top 8 Private Concessionaires (FY25):
| Rank | Concessionaire | Amount (₹ crore) | No. of Plazas |
|---|
| 1 | IRB Infrastructure | 3,023 | 25 |
| 2 | Cube Highways | 2,388 | 35 |
| 3 | IndInfravit | 1,511 | 24 |
| 4 | L&T IDPL | 1,131 | 7 |
| 5 | Ashoka Buildcon | 881 | 13 |
| 6 | Welspun Enterprises | 821 | 12 |
| 7 | Reliance Infrastructure | 647 | 1 |
| 8 | GMR | 640 | 12 |
(Source: Indian Highways Management Company Ltd, Mint calculations)
The author is a PhD student in economics at the Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee.
Here is the complete reproduction of the corporate feature article, "Will festive discounts fuel consumer durables demand?", from Page 7 of Mint (August 20, 2026):
Will festive discounts fuel consumer durables demand?
By Neha M. Alawadhi & Srimoyee Bhattacharya
New Delhi
Last year, India’s consumer durables industry entered the festive season with a tailwind: lower prices after a cut in goods and services tax (GST) rates. This year, retailers are betting that discounts on consumer-durable premium products can keep shoppers spending, even as smartphones and other consumer goods become significantly more expensive.
“We expect around 8-10% growth in the season from last year,” said Nilesh Gupta, director and managing partner at Vijay Sales, noting that the Independence Day sale had provided a strong start.
Retailers are also seeing consumers trade up, rather than retreat from spending.
“Despite selective price increases, consumer interest remains high, with premiumization and productivity-led categories, with clear preferences for premium,” said Satish NS, president of Haier Appliances India.
But higher prices could make demand less predictable, particularly among price-sensitive consumers. Smartphone prices rose roughly 10% by the end of the first quarter, said Research Director Tarun Pathak at Counterpoint Research. “As elasticity is limited at these prices, premiumization may continue across TVs and refrigerators as brands introduce more AI-enabled products,” he said.
The Premiumization Trend
- Shift in Mobile Sector: “Mobile growth has been driven by premiumization (from fiscal year 2026/FY26) to FY28 and not by volume, owing to high penetration in the category,” Tarun said. He expects that trend to continue as consumers typically move up the value chain. EMI financing, he added, should cushion the impact of higher prices.
- Widespread Price Hikes: Prices have risen across consumer durable categories. LG Electronics India raised prices by a cumulative 16-17% in two rounds during April-June/Q1 FY27, across its portfolio, while Blue Star raised prices by 5%. Crop failures in some parts of India and high inflation are also expected to weigh on demand for entry-level durables.
- Strong Premium appetite: There are signs that consumers are willing to trade up. Amazon India said in June sales of premium TVs priced above ₹35,000 double from normal days, with demand for newer kitchen products such as robotic vacuums, coffee machines and air-fryers rising 4.3 times year-on-year.
Festive Momentum & Tech Integration
The more recent Prime Day Sale also showed strong consumer momentum, with Amazon India saying purchases across smartphones, electronics, and consumer durables were more than twice those of a normal day. An Amazon spokesperson confirmed that consumers are also opting for more premium products.
Amrit Singh, vice president and business head (consumer electronics and home appliances) at Godrej Appliances, said the firm expects to grow 10% in festive season sales, driven by demand for premium products like double-door refrigerators, front-load washing machines, and energy-efficient ACs, besides AI-enabled products and other features.
“At the top end of the spectrum, a lot of brands have launched products with AI integration which is expected to continue the premiumization trend across TVs, washing machines and refrigerators,” Singh said.
The Mid- and Entry-Level Squeeze
The squeeze is likely to be greater at the mid- and entry-level, particularly among price-sensitive aspiring consumers in Tier-2 and other smaller markets. Consumers are more likely to become cautious with their budgets in these segments, but value-exchange schemes and finance could help bridge the affordability gap.
(Source: Mint, Page 7)
Here is the complete reproduction of the global finance feature article, "Bonds are getting hammered, and Wall Street says the rout won't end anytime soon", from Page 9 (Global - WSJ) of the August 20, 2026 edition of Mint:
Bonds are getting hammered, and Wall Street says the rout won't end anytime soon
By Sam Goldfarb & Richard Rubin
A selloff in global bonds is driving up borrowing costs for governments, companies and home buyers. And in the developed world, Wall Street sees no end in sight.
Bond yields are at 16-year highs and are rising on everything from the continuing U.S.-Iran conflict, which has stoked inflation worries, to the massive supply of new debt paying for deficits, cash-strapped governments, and budget deficits and a lack of buyers.
Few see eye-to-eye on what will trigger a turnaround and put an end to any further but temporary bond rout. None of those conditions are expected to change anytime soon. What's more, some warn that if things go worse, yields could rise even further—high enough to slow growth and trigger a recession.
In the face of the 2008 financial crisis, the era of ultra-low interest rates meant market conditions might work. Now, as the Fed signaling is likely to keep interest rates higher for longer, that is unlikely.
But the biggest concern remains the long-term bonds, which could move higher and continue to cause losses even if the Fed doesn't move immediately.
At least in part, this is a global phenomenon. Yields on government bonds, which rise when bond prices fall, have been rising in recent weeks, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note touching 5.02% for the first time since June, and the yield on the 30-year bond touching 5.25%—both of which are the highest they have been since 2007.
Debt Management & Interest Expense
A sustained bond selloff could make it harder for the U.S. government to manage its growing pile of debt as older bonds mature.
Even before this year's run-up, interest on the debt was consuming a bigger slice of the federal budget. Now, nearly one in five dollars of revenue goes to interest payments.
Over the past half-century, net interest expense averaged 2.1% of GDP. That is expected to rise on its way to 4.6% in 2036, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). But it easily could be worse if the yields remain elevated.
The CBO's forecast earlier this year assumed the yield on the 10-year Treasury note would gradually decline from its current level of around 4.3% and remain around 3.6% in the long run.
If yields remain elevated, the government's interest costs would rise even faster. For every percentage-point rate increase above the forecast, the government would add $370 billion in net interest expenses over the next decade, according to the CBO.
“Ultimately, there's no escaping the rising interest rates,” said Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute. “The issue is the deficit. If we can only be concerned about one thing, that should be the high-risk 10-year deficit outlook.”
Political Pressures & Affordability
For now, the focus remains on affordability. President Trump has repeatedly promised to lower mortgage rates. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also said early in his tenure that the administration would try to push down the 10-year yield, in part by reducing the deficit, which would reduce the supply of bond offerings to the market.
Those efforts, though, haven't borne fruit, and yields are at levels that will make it harder for the administration to deliver on its promise. In recent weeks, Bessent has tried to capture some of that focus, arguing that it is at least in part due to factors outside the U.S.
Those factors include moves by central banks in other major markets to support the Japanese yen, a move that could lead to selling of U.S. government bonds to raise cash. Yields, though, have continued to march higher, exposing Bessent to criticism.
“The fact that action by the Treasury Secretary up to this point has had no visible effect on yields is an indication that this may have a higher hurdle,” said Lou Crandall, chief economist of investment-grade credit research firm Wrightson ICAP.
In one encouraging sign, yields have fallen somewhat recently, with the 10-year yield dropping from its October peak of 4.99% to around 4.75% on Wednesday.
Higher yields also have political implications. In a memo, Biden administration officials blamed the rising yields on GOP deficit-cutting plans, which they said would add to the national debt.
Still, a sustained movement higher in yields would keep borrowing costs high for consumers, businesses and governments. That is raising questions about voters' concerns about affordability.
Stock Market Impact
Stocks also took a hit Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Composite dropping 1.1% on Wednesday. The S&P 500 dropped 0.7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%, or 143 points.
Stock markets took a hit, with all 20 stocks in the PHLX Housing Sector Index in the red during intraday trading. The index fell about 11% since July, on track for its worst month since June 2024.
Indeed, though, yields still remain elevated.
“Markets have been able to overlook the increase in yields for a while, because we had this earnings boom,” said Keith Lerner, chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services. “But I think as we move past the earnings season, there'll be more focus on yields.”
Here is the complete reproduction of the global business feature article, "Big Food is fighting to tempt taste buds in the era of weight-loss drugs", from Page 10 (Global - WSJ) of the August 20, 2026 edition of Mint:
Big Food is fighting to tempt taste buds in the era of weight-loss drugs
With GLP-1s threatening billions in sales, packaged-food makers are testing ways to win the not-so-hungry
By Annie Gasparro & Jesse Newman
Inside an Omaha test kitchen, executives at Conagra recently huddled over plastic trays of microwavable eggs, potatoes and sausage. One by one, they lifted a package of cheese sauce and squeezed out the liquid in a slow orange ribbon.
No one hated the test food. That was the point: Conagra, the maker of brands like Healthy Choice and Marie Callender’s, was trying to find out which of its existing foods might appeal to GLP-1 users, and develop new products that will entice them on Wegovy or Ozempic.
The testing was one of dozens of tests Conagra has conducted in recent months, a flurry of activity reflecting how seriously the packaged-food industry is treating the threat of GLP-1 drugs.
Food giants, whose success has for decades relied on a proven playbook to coax consumers into eating more, are now trying to figure out how to sell to people who want to eat less.
For decades, food companies have thrived on a business model that encourages overconsumption. But the rise of GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone to suppress appetite and make people feel full, is forcing a rethink.
As many as 55 million Americans, or 15% of the population, are expected to be on GLP-1 drugs by 2035, according to Morgan Stanley. Packaged-food sales could fall by 2% to 4% as users cut back on calories, particularly sweet snacks and carbonated drinks.
The financial stakes are huge: a 2% drop in food sales would translate to billions of dollars in lost revenue for major companies. Already, some of the industry’s biggest players are feeling the squeeze.
Many food industry executives and boards initially took a wait-and-see approach to the drugs, which were initially approved by the FDA in 2005 to treat type 2 diabetes. The drugs mimic a naturally occurring hormone of the physiological class known as incretins, slowing stomach emptying and suppressing hunger.
A new drug
The first versions of GLP-1 drugs were approved by the FDA in 2005, initially for managing type 2 diabetes. But weight-loss trials in recent years showed they can help people lose 15% or more of their body weight.
The treatment at first specifically for weight loss was approved in 2021, followed by Wegovy, Mounjaro and Zepbound. American spending on GLP-1s surged from $5.7 billion in 2018 to $51.7 billion in 2023, according to the American Medical Association.
In late 2023, Walmart’s US President, John Furner, mentioned in a Bloomberg interview that hunger-suppressant users bought "slightly less calories." Afterward, shares of food companies slumped.
A few months later, Mattson, the California-based food developer, gathered a focus group of GLP-1 users who listed foods they had stopped eating since starting the drugs.
"I almost felt like I was eating soap," said Kristen Berry, a Pennsylvania food broker, who told the group of his first few months of meals after he started taking Wegovy. "Nothing had really good flavor."
A well-documented side effect of the drugs is a metallic taste in the mouth, said Richard Boy, president of a state-funded bio-science organization. And food companies want to combat that.
"Certainly if people aren't enjoying eating as much, they aren't going to buy as much," said Dori, a food companies' consultant who focuses on consumer taste and smell tests on GLP-1.
Calling in the chefs
In a kitchen replete with stainless-steel appliances at Conagra's Omaha research and development facility, Chef Vince Taylor poured lemon and a hint of white wine to zip up an Alfredo sauce. Taylor said the secret to favorite family foods in a lot of cases is fat and sugar.
These ingredients happen to turn off those on weight-loss drugs, but they could be another way to sharpen the taste. Instead, they’ll use the delicious combinations of GLP-1 users.
Instead, Conagra is leaning on herbs and spices.
"Instead of a heavy beef stroganoff, we can do a lemon chicken Alfredo," Taylor said. "We want to make sure it hits all of the boxes for GLP-1 users."
When Conagra's vice president of research and development, Laura Mac, was thinking about a growing adoption of GLP-1, she suggested they look at the food. "What if we could have a product like mac and cheese with fiber and protein?" she asked. Instead, she told them: "Just eat it in smaller portions and with more water."
Doctors recommend that GLP-1 users consume more than 100g of protein, to prevent the muscle loss that can occur with rapid weight-loss. A control group was given Conagra's protein shake. Conagra is also looking at its current lineup, which includes things like Healthy Choice bowls, to see which ones are already good for GLP-1 users.
Taste and Reformulation Challenges
Ruiz, a trained chef, knows working with "protein-heavy" mixes is a challenge: macronutrients can taste like chalk. "Protein is chalky," she said. To mask the protein, Conagra designed a custom marinade and added a robust mix of spices to the chicken breast dishes.
A prototype for a frozen burrito with the same protein levels was discarded, because the tortilla couldn't hold that much filling.
To entice the person on Wegovy, Conagra designed a custom recipe for Conagra's Marie Callender's brand of pot pie, using a crust of low-fat Greek yogurt, egg whites, and oat fiber.
To the degree that these continue to be barriers to food, the Conagra consumer experience is to make things that go easily in the microwave or oven and can often be in the disposable packaging a consumer would throw away.
Conagra now has its own employees assess the prototypes on behalf of the target audience—including those on GLP-1s themselves, Nolan said.
"I've been on Ozempic," said one, who works in Conagra's sensory evaluation lab. "I can tell you if it's hitting the spot."
'Here to stay'
Srinivas, the food-industry executive, fields requests from some of the country’s biggest food makers, such as Hershey Co. and PepsiCo, about how to position their products, or speed up projects with protein or fiber. With few exceptions, she said, they are choosing to diversify rather than fight loss of consumers.
Some analysts believe the food companies' fears are overblown. "While higher incomes demand we start GLP-1 users, the high cost is likely to keep them out of reach of many," said an analyst. "It is unlikely to be a permanent shift."
Kraft Heinz, the condiment giant, is among those that says the worry is overdone. In other households, when a family member is taking the drugs, the company's survey is showing other family members are still buying traditional foods, like Heinz tomato ketchup with its lineup of dipping sauces.
To entice the person on Wegovy, there’s also new competition: Nestlé is launching a new brand of frozen meals, called Vital Pursuit, that will feature portion-controlled meals, high-fiber, and other options.
Nestlé is also looking at how its current portfolio of brands, which previously had struggled, can be repositioned. Some analysts say the industry’s biggest players are likely to feel the most impact of GLP-1 drugs, because of their exposure to low-nutrition, high-calorie products.
Others, however, say that the food giants are well-suited to handle the shift, with some already having portfolio-wide reformulations underway, or planning to launch new brands.
"This is a permanent shift in consumer behavior," said an analyst. "Food companies that don't adapt will struggle."
"If food companies can adapt, they can actually benefit from this trend," said an analyst. "GLP-1 users are looking for premium, high-quality foods, which carry higher margins."
Key Statistics Callout
- Projected GLP-1 Users: As many as 15% of the US population (or about 50 million people) are expected to be on GLP-1 drugs by 2035, according to Morgan Stanley.
- Spending Boom: Spending on GLP-1s in the US is projected to surge from $5.7 billion in 2023 to $51.7 billion in 2030, according to the American Medical Association.
(Source: Mint, Page 10)
Here is the complete reproduction of the global finance feature article, "With a 150% bond rally, Ukraine shows it can beat the odds", from Page 10 (Global - WSJ) of the August 20, 2026 edition of Mint:
With a 150% bond rally, Ukraine shows it can beat the odds
Investors are throwing their weight behind the country's bonds, pocketing some of the most lucrative gains in bond markets
By Bloomberg
The country's extraordinary performance is reminiscent of other odds, along with billions in debt relief, the country is restructuring debts with creditors. It has been a remarkable turnaround since the start of 2024.
“These developments have helped turn around the sentiment,” said Roger Mark, a managing director at Ninety One in London. “That this country's showing the war isn't fundamentally altered the funding outlook is look-ahead. There's real belief that it now has funding secured and will win this war.”
Skeptics warn that the peace is likely to remain elusive, and a winter could turn the war in Russia's favor, but the bond rally is intensifying. It is business as usual for Ukraine...
...essentially behave like a one-way bet on whether the country can fight its way to the end of the war and receive its assets. Its $1.2 billion note due in 2029 is currently trading around 85 cents on the dollar. Back in June 2025, the bonds traded at just about 33 cents. Even though prices have retreated somewhat in recent months, the returns are still impressive.
Ukrainian sovereign bonds have risen on average 150% since June 2025, according to a JPMorgan index tracking dollar-denominated emerging-market debt, outperforming rivals by more than 10×.
Few analysts believe Ukraine has bought itself more time to raise fresh cash, and the country's bonds are still trading at deep discounts.
And just as important, Europe is showing a willingness to support. This month, the U.S. with allies plans to begin tapping into $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to help.
“It's a way to show Russia we are going to do a lot better and show a lot more commitment on technology,” said Anthony Kettle, an emerging-markets portfolio manager at BlueBay. “What is in it is for market, is...”
Ukraine's bonds, indeed...
Key Statistics Callout
- Bond Value Surge: Ukrainian sovereign bonds have risen by an average of 150% since June 2025.
- Price Recovery: The $1.2 billion 2029 note rebounded from 33 cents (June 2025) to approximately 85 cents on the dollar.
- Relative Performance: Ukraine's bond returns have outperformed rival emerging-market debt peers by over 10×.
(Source: Mint, Page 10)
