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Wednesday, April 01, 2026

Newspaper Summary 020426

 

Oracle cuts 12,000 India jobs in global AI-led restructuring drive

BIG RESET. Workforce feels the artificial intelligence transition shock; middle-layer roles face the heat

Sanjana B, Bengaluru

Layoffs continue to plague the IT sector, with Oracle Corporation cutting around 12,000 jobs in India as part of a sweeping global restructuring tied to its AI infrastructure push. This accounts for roughly 40 per cent of a broader global reduction of 30,000 employees, spanning functions such as cloud, engineering, marketing and sales, and affecting roles from entry-level staff to senior leadership.

Employees were informed early on Tuesday, many via email, without prior one-on-one discussions, highlighting the scale and abruptness of the exercise. Mumbai-based Rohith (name changed on request), a senior cloud architect, said he was informed via an email sent around 6 am on Tuesday. While employees had sensed the coming cuts, notifications were delivered without any communication from HR or managers.

According to people familiar with the matter, the cuts span functions including cloud, communications, marketing, engineering, operations and sales, across roles — from individual contributors (IC1-IC4) and managers (M2-M6) to directors, senior ICs and even SVPs. The layoffs cut across multiple business units and geographies, impacting teams such as Revenue and Health Sciences, SaaS and Virtual Operations Services, and NetSuite’s India Development.

SEVERANCE BENEFITS

In an internal communication, Oracle said the role eliminations were part of a broader organisational rejig, adding that the day of notification would be the employees’ last working day. It said the affected staff would be eligible for severance benefits upon signing termination paperwork, in line with company policy. Sources indicated the severance package includes 30 days of gross pay for every year of service, one month of garden leave, an additional two months pay and certain insurance benefits. Oracle India declined to comment on businessline’s email queries.

STRONG Q3

The layoffs come despite strong financial performance. In Q3 FY26, Oracle reported revenue growth of 22 per cent in dollar terms and 18 per cent in constant currency, taking total revenue to $17.2 billion. During the quarter, cloud revenue stood at $8.9 billion, up 44 per cent in dollar, while cloud infrastructure revenue rose to $4.9 billion, up 84 per cent. Oracle maintained its FY26 guidance at $67 billion in revenue and $50 billion in capital expenditure, while raising FY27 revenue outlook to $90 billion. In February, the company said it planned to raise $50 billion through debt and equity, subsequently securing $30 billion via investment-grade bonds and mandatory convertible preferred stock.

ROBUST MARGINS

Oracle CEO Clay Magouyrk said on the Q3 FY26 earnings call that AI data centres were generating 30-40 per cent gross margins, with an additional 10-20 per cent flowing into higher-margin services, such as compute, storage and security. Alongside its 60-80 per cent margin multi-cloud database business, this is strengthening Oracle Cloud Infrastructure’s overall profitability.

Sanchit Vir Gogia, Chief Analyst at Greyhound Research, said, “When a company moves to that level of capital intensity, the organisation does not stay balanced. Talent, budgets and leadership attention get pulled toward the areas expected to deliver AI-era returns. Everything else comes under pressure. Alongside, vendors are doubling down on AI infra, platform capabilities and high-value engineering, while thinning the middle layers of sustaining engineering, support and repeatable delivery work.”


FinMin notifies custom duty relief on SEZ goods sold domestically

STRATEGIC MOVE. Duty to be lowered to 5-12.5 per cent; relief effective for one year

Shishir Sinha, New Delhi

The Finance Ministry has notified a relief measure allowing Special Economic Zone (SEZ) units to sell goods in domestic tariff areas (DTA) under specific conditions, effective for one year starting Wednesday. However, the notification excludes several categories from the exemption, including petroleum products like petrol and diesel, as well as various food products.

BUDGET PROPOSAL

This follows a Union Budget announcement by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman regarding a special one-time measure to facilitate sales by eligible SEZ manufacturing units to the DTA at concessional duty rates. The move aims to address capacity utilisation concerns triggered by global trade disruptions.

According to the notification dated March 31, a lower duty ranging from 5 per cent to 12.5 per cent will apply. This exemption is available only to SEZ units that commenced production on or before March 31, 2025. Furthermore, the goods must be manufactured within the SEZ and meet a minimum value addition requirement of 20 per cent.

The total value of goods cleared to the DTA under this exemption in a financial year is capped at 30 per cent of the unit’s highest annual free on board (FOB) export value from any of the three immediately preceding financial years. The relief does not extend to units in free trade and warehousing zones, nor to imported goods removed to the DTA as-is or after use.

‘A PRAGMATIC STEP’

Terming the move a “timely and pragmatic step” to address demand disruptions in export markets, Harpreet Singh, Partner at Deloitte, said: “By permitting calibrated DTA sales, the government has provided much-needed operational flexibility to optimise capacity utilisation of manufacturing units impacted by global trade disruptions, while retaining adequate safeguards to preserve the export-oriented character of SEZs.”

According to Krishan Arora, Partner at Grant Thornton Bharat, this policy change ensures that cutting-edge SEZ infrastructure does not lie idle as exporters navigate international tariff barriers and supply chain disruptions caused by the US-Israel-Iran conflict. “Domestic industry also benefits by exploiting available capacity of SEZ and shall have reduced reliance on imports which are getting both delayed and expensive, owing to the war era global economy is currently grappling with,” he said.

RESERVATIONS

However, some experts expressed reservations. Ajay Srivastava of the research body GTRI described the duty cut as “small,” noting it amounts to roughly 1 percentage point for many products. He pointed out that the absence of IGST relief, the 20 per cent value addition requirement, and the 30 per cent domestic sales cap limit flexibility for SEZ firms.

“The exclusion of petrol and diesel further weakens the policy, particularly for refinery-linked SEZs. If the objective is to boost domestic supply, stronger measures, such as restricting exports of petrol, diesel and ATF, as practised by countries like China and Singapore, may be needed,” he said.

RBI likely to hold rates on rising inflation risks

The MPC last cut the repo rate from 5.5 per cent to 5.25 per cent in December 2025

Our Bureau, Mumbai

The RBI’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to keep the repo rate unchanged at its upcoming meeting, preferring to remain vigilant as inflationary pressures could re-emerge due to high global energy prices and supply chain disruptions as the West Asia war rages on.

Moreover, worries about growth slowing due to the ripple effects of the war, which has entered its second month, could lead the six-member committee to hold the repo rate at its first meeting of FY27. The three-day meeting of the MPC begins on April 6. It is expected to retain the ‘neutral’ stance.

INFLATION THRESHOLD

Barclays economists Aastha Gudwani and Amruta Ghare said that to the extent the ongoing energy shock does not translate into CPI (retail) inflation breaching the target (4 per cent +/- 2 per cent) durably, the MPC is unlikely to hike rates.

“As long as the pump price stays unchanged, we expect the energy shock pass-through to CPI to stay muted, ensuring that the inflation outcome is aligned to the 4 per cent target. Accordingly, we expect the MPC to stay on hold through 2026,” they said in a note.

The MPC last cut the repo rate (the interest rate at which the RBI provides funds to banks) from 5.5 per cent to 5.25 per cent in December 2025. In the subsequent meeting, the committee stood pat on the rate. The stance was last changed in June 2025 from ‘accommodative’ to ‘neutral’.

GROWTH CONCERNS

Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge Ratings, observed that given the uncertain geopolitical scenario, the MPC is expected to maintain a pause at its next meeting and wait-and-watch to see how the war scenario pans out.

“While there are concerns around inflation, it (the MPC) will also be quite concerned about the growth aspect going forward... On the inflation front, I see the pass-through being partial,” she said. “But if the war prolongs, there could be severe repercussions for growth and the MPC will be concerned about that. I don’t think the RBI will be in a hurry to increase the rate because even in an extreme case scenario we are projecting inflation a little above 6 per cent.”

END OF RATE CUTS?

Sonal Badhan, Economist, Bank of Baroda, noted that the RBI is likely to announce its full-year growth and inflation forecasts, keeping in view the impact of the war on India.

“The RBI will remain vigilant and hold rates steady for the time being, without changing its stance from neutral. We also believe this to be the end of the rate-cut cycle. Further, if oil prices remain above $100/barrel for a consistently long period of time and inflation breaches the RBI’s upper tolerance band (6 per cent), then there might be a chance of a rate hike by the central bank towards the end of FY27,” she said.


Challenging year: FY27 set to be a difficult one for the economy

The new financial year begins on an uncertain note. An economy that imports 85 per cent of its oil will surely be hit by a prolonged price and supply shock. The most important question is how long this will last. Four crucial macro variables — trade deficit, current account deficit (CAD), growth and inflation — will come under stress if the shock continues well into the first quarter.

These variables also influence each other. India’s fundamentals remain robust, but real shocks can also be amplified by financial actors. The Reserve Bank of India will have to be ahead of the game. The latest Monthly Economic Review has said that FY27 will see a higher trade deficit and CAD. The extent of rise would depend on how long this shock lasts — even as demand management can keep these parameters under check. The pass-through of imported inflation will send the right market signals to curb demand and the two external deficits. The pain to be borne is inescapable; the Centre needs to act thoughtfully on distributing this between households, governments and businesses. The trade deficit is already slated to be in the region of $350 billion in FY26, or 10 per cent of GDP, against 7.5 per cent of GDP in FY25. This trend may continue if the crisis does not abate. A dire scenario is one where oil prices remain elevated at over $100-120 a barrel well into the year. This would mean an additional outgo of about $45 billion on oil imports for six months, pressurising the rupee and the deficits further at current levels of demand.

These are worst-case scenarios. While price pass-through makes sense, it could exacerbate inflation as well as inflation expectations beyond a point, hurting both supply and demand. That said, there is not much fiscal space for the government to absorb these losses, with total debt of Centre and States at about 85 per cent of GDP. The fiscal deficit will expand if the Centre is forced to compensate oil companies for holding retail prices or not fully passing on increased crude oil costs — fuel prices have been steady in the first month of the war and will likely remain so until State elections are completed in late April. A demand compression in the event of a prolonged price and supply shock may result in higher outlays for the Economic Stabilisation Fund.

Meanwhile, many Budget assumptions may not hold. Tax collections could come under pressure if overall industrial activity is hit due to scarcity or high price of raw materials. Fertilizer subsidies are bound to overshoot the budgeted sum of ₹1.7 lakh crore for FY27, with analysts estimating a ₹25,000 crore increase if the crisis persists. Adding to the problems is the prediction of El Nino setting in this monsoon year, meaning the rural sector will need support. The LPG subsidy of about ₹12,000 crore projected for the new fiscal might need an upward revision. A rise in the fiscal deficit by even 100 basis points cannot be ruled out, not least because of growth compression. The best part, though, is that this is just the start of the fiscal year. If the war ends soon, the damage to the economy in FY27 can still be contained.


India’s chance in supply chain reset

Combined with supply chain diversification, FTAs can shift India from a consumption-led market to an export manufacturing hub.

RAVI POKHARNA

For three decades, global supply chains were built on a simple premise: efficiency above everything else. Production clustered where costs were lowest, logistics fastest and scale largest. However, shocks from the past five years, including Covid-19, the Russia-Ukraine war, and recent Middle East tensions, have exposed the limits of this model and revealed a fundamental weakness in globalisation’s architecture: efficiency without resilience.

The lesson for governments and corporations is clear: supply chains are no longer just commercial arrangements; they are strategic assets. Countries are increasingly focused on mitigating vulnerabilities and reducing excessive dependence on any single geography. Export controls, sanctions, and dominance over critical inputs have turned supply chains into geopolitical tools. For multinational firms, concentration risk is the biggest vulnerability, and India is emerging as one of the most credible alternatives.

THE GEOPOLITICAL TRIGGER

Globalisation is not ending, it is fragmenting. The Middle East conflict has renewed fears about disruptions across critical trade corridors, with around 25 per cent of global seaborne oil and 20 per cent of global LNG at risk due to halts in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. Businesses are pre-emptively redesigning their manufacturing footprints to reduce geopolitical exposure.

This is precisely the window India has been waiting for, resting on four structural advantages:

  1. A large domestic market that allows manufacturers to achieve scale before exporting.
  2. A young workforce at a time when many Asian economies are ageing.
  3. Democratic institutions and legal predictability that reduce political risk.
  4. An expanding network of trade agreements.

THE FIRST BIG BREAKTHROUGH

Nowhere is this more visible than in electronics manufacturing. A decade ago, India was a major importer with only two mobile manufacturing units; today, it has over 300. Mobile phone production value surged to ₹5.5 trillion in 2024-25, and smartphone exports doubled to $30 billion. Global giants like Apple and Samsung are increasingly moving assembly, components, and design to Indian hubs as they reassess their heavy dependence on Chinese manufacturing.

THE PLI CATALYST

A key driver has been the government’s Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme. Covering 14 sectors, the programme links incentives directly to incremental production. As of early 2026, the initiative has generated over ₹20.4 trillion in cumulative production and sales, far exceeding the initial projection of ₹6 trillion.

THE EXPORT MULTIPLIER

Recent free trade agreements (FTAs) with Australia, the UAE, the UK, and the EU are expanding preferential access for Indian exporters. Combined with supply chain diversification, these can shift India from a consumption-led market to an export manufacturing hub. Logistics efficiency is also improving as costs, historically at 14-15 per cent of GDP, are gradually declining through modernised ports and the National Logistics Policy.

SCALING THE ECOSYSTEM

Geopolitical instability in the Middle East may further accelerate this opportunity as companies seek geopolitical neutrality, large domestic market anchors, and trusted partners with stable institutions. However, opportunity alone does not guarantee success; India must move quickly on several fronts:

  • Infrastructure: Continued investments in logistics corridors and ports are critical.
  • Labour-intensive sectors: Textiles and footwear need regulatory clarity and industrial parks.
  • Skill development: Training must accelerate to support advanced manufacturing technologies.

The world is undergoing a structural reconfiguration of trade and production networks. For India, this disruption is a strategic opening. If India can scale its ecosystems and deepen trade ties now, it will become a defining hub of the next globalisation cycle.

The writer is Executive Director, Pahle India Foundation. With inputs from Kuntala Karkun, Senior Visiting Fellow, Pahle India Foundation.


A severe test for monetary policy

MPC will have to resist the temptation of raising the policy rate of interest to combat the anticipated inflation, as the strict inflation targeting approach would suggest

A VASUDEVAN

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) due to meet on April 6-8 faces many economic challenges arising from endogenous and exogenous factors relating mainly to regulatory and governance matters and the humungous uncertainty created by oil price spikes, scarcities of fertilizers and a number of other commodities and minerals. Under the circumstances, decision making has to be based on a large number of considerations that go beyond inflation and growth data.

The first requirement for MPC decision making is its access to sufficiently sound quality information especially for the months of February and March. Will the MPC be guided by information only about economic variables as reported by official sources and private data providers? What is the view that the MPC will take regarding the longevity of the war in the Middle East and the current geopolitical tensions. What if the conflict drags on and becomes more widespread involving many more nations?

Whether one likes it or not, the inflation targeting framework as provided for under the provision 45Z of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Act will just not be good enough, surely not in this situation. ‘Superior” politico-economic information that the authorities possess complementing the multiple economic and financial indicators and external environment will have to be the basis for decision making.

Indian economic policy thinking has so far been woven around a magical formula which has four elements: growth rate of about 8 per cent, inflation rate of less than 4 per cent, fiscal deficit of around 3 per cent of the GDP, and an external current account deficit of 1.5-2 per cent. MPC members would often like to strategise monetary policy thinking to enable the fructification of the magical formula.

INFLATION DYNAMICS

Given this background, the MPC would still be most concerned about the inflation dynamics that arises immediately from the shortage of crude oil and natural gas and their price hikes. Inflation spreading across the economy would raise production costs, weaken investment prospects, prompt high depreciation of the Indian rupee vis-à-vis the US dollar and challenge the fiscal space to absorb the increase in social welfare and infrastructure expenditures. If the inflation rate is not within the MPC’s comfort zone, say of >4 per cent but <6 per cent, then how much would the growth rate be in 2026-27? No one can make an estimate now but it will be a surprise if it is around 6 per cent, not 7 per cent and over as many economic analysts, including the Economic Survey, have projected.

MPC will have to resist the temptation of raising the policy rate of interest to combat the anticipated inflation, as the strict inflation targeting approach would suggest. What is more important is to look at the regulatory reform that would enable financial institutions (mainly banks and NBFCs) to continue providing credit on a more extended scale so that the borrowers can have a larger buffer of commodities and services including the use of artificial intelligence (AI), if need be, to address a possible longer haul of uncertainty. Inventory build up could well be for six months rather than the conventional three months. And the use of AI would need to be focused mainly for finding ways of reducing costs and making goods competitive both domestically and abroad. This would facilitate India’s exports to more diverse destinations.

This is not to suggest that India should not follow a multiple strategy of raising the policy rate by say, 25-30 basis points and revisiting the internal liquidity requirements model once again along with undertaking regulatory reform with an exceptional (exceptional because liquidity analysis and regulatory reform are not a part of the legal frame in which inflation targeting has been cast under Section 45Z of the RBI Act) suggestion of encouragement of the MPC.

Such a strategy would be market friendly and would not disturb the yield curve, given the fact that the long rate of interest has been somewhat sticky and would not be inclined to move up in view of the limited possibility of high growth prospects.

MPC will be mindful of the limited fiscal space and the difficult external current account deficit. In view of the much talked about prevalence of recessionary conditions in much of the developed world and China, India’s export prospects are not bright. Besides, foreign remittances of Indian expatriates would either shrink or just be stable. To expect the rupee depreciation to improve export prospects is close to day-dreaming given the external trading environment and recessionary conditions prevailing overseas.

Ideally, the meeting could still be postponed to end-May or early June to enable the Committee to have more credible information about the world economic outlook and India’s own economic metrics. After all, decisions cannot be taken on some idiosyncratic assumptions in the midst of uncertainty.


The writer is a former Executive Director of the RBI and currently an independent economic analyst. (Through The Billion Press)

BLEAK SCENARIO. With rising energy prices and the looming threat of inflation amidst uncertainty, the MPC has a difficult task on its hands.


At ₹29.53 lakh cr, UPI transactions hit a record in March

Press Trust of India, New Delhi

Fuelled by festivities and financial year closure, the transaction through Unified Payments Interface (UPI) in March touched a record high of ₹29.53 lakh crore and 22.64 billion in value and volume terms, respectively, according to data released by the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI).

It said the value of transactions was at ₹29.53 lakh crore in March against ₹24.77 lakh crore in the same month a year ago, registering a 19 per cent growth on an annual basis. The transactions in value terms was ₹26.84 lakh crore in February, registering a growth of 10 per cent on a....

(Note: The article text provided in the sources concludes at this point.)


    

Rating agencies expect India Inc’s credit quality in FY27 to be stable but cautious

RISK OUTLOOK. They flagged moderation in credit ratios in H2FY26, amid rising geopolitical uncertainty

Our Bureau, Mumbai

India Inc’s credit quality outlook for fiscal 2027 is expected to be broadly stable but cautious amid geopolitical risks arising from the West Asia war, which will cloud the external environment and test corporate resilience, according to credit rating agencies.

The agencies gave the aforementioned outlook even as most of them reported that India Inc’s credit ratio moderated in the second half (H2) of FY26 against the first half (H1).

CREDIT PRESSURE

CareEdge Ratings noted that the evolving macroeconomic backdrop, marked by intensifying geopolitical tensions and shifting trade dynamics, is beginning to weigh on India Inc’s credit quality.

For Crisil Ratings, the credit ratio stood at 1.50 times in H2FY26, down from 2.17 times in H1FY26. The ratio for CareEdge Ratings and India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) stood at 1.93 times (2.56 times) and 3.1 times (3.3 times), respectively. However, ICRA recorded an improvement in the ratio at 3.2 times (2.9 times).

Referring to a stress test of 30 sectors, accounting for 65 per cent of the agency’s rated corporate debt exposed to the West Asia conflict either directly or indirectly, Subodh Rai, Managing Director, observed that Crisil Ratings’ assessment indicates that 23 of these sectors will see limited impact on credit profiles because of the conflict, despite higher input prices and disruption in gas supply.

RISK WARNING

“Clearly, strong balance sheets (median debt-to-equity ratio of 0.45 times as of March 31, 2026) lend cushion. The impact could be moderately negative for six sectors and adversely affect one,” Rai said. However, he cautioned that a prolonged conflict would be a systemic risk and could have a cascading impact on India Inc’s credit quality.

Six sectors — airlines, polyester textiles, specialty chemicals, flexible packaging manufacturers, auto component makers and diamond polishers — could see a moderately negative impact on their credit quality mainly because of the impact on operating margin, per Crisil Ratings.

WATCHFUL STANCE

Somasekhar Vemuri, Senior Director, Crisil Ratings, said, “Our credit quality outlook is stable for now, backed by resilient domestic demand and strong corporate balance sheets. But overall, we remain cautious as the duration and intensity of the West Asia conflict are uncertain. If it prolongs, slower global growth, gas availability challenges, higher-for-longer crude oil prices, and consequently, an impact on consumer sentiment will bear watching.”

K Ravichandran, Executive Vice-President and Chief Rating Officer, ICRA, observed that the escalation of hostilities in West Asia since late February has reintroduced risks, particularly for India’s energy and food security.

He cautioned, “While higher subsidies could cushion commodity price pressure, they may strain government finances. Moreover, corporates could face a moderation in demand and pressure on margins amid rising inflation.”

As per ICRA’s assessment, while higher crude prices, shipping costs and rupee depreciation would have a broad-based cost impact, the direct effect of the West Asia conflict would be more pronounced for sectors such as fertilisers, gems and jewellery, airlines, basmati rice, downstream oil and gas, ceramics and MSMEs.

Sachin Gupta, Executive Director and Chief Rating Officer, CareEdge Ratings, said that given India’s high dependence on energy imports, a prolonged conflict situation could have cascading effects — fuelling inflation, widening the current account deficit, exerting pressure on fiscal balances and weighing on growth.

In this context, CareEdge estimated that if crude oil were to average $100 per barrel in FY27, GDP growth could moderate to 6.5 per cent, while inflation may rise to 5.1-5.3 per cent.”

Gupta said, “While domestic policy measures and relatively stronger corporate balance sheets provide some cushion, the critical question is whether these domestic levers will be sufficient to keep credit quality on course if the global environment deteriorates further. For now, the answer leans towards yes — but the margin for comfort is narrowing.”

Ind-Ra said the corporate credit outlook is cautious for FY27, which is expected to see a confluence of risks spanning energy availability, input costs, inflation dynamics, fiscal balances, subdued global trade and El Niño concerns.

Arvind Rao, Senior Director, Ind-Ra, cautioned that energy-intensive segments such as fertilizers, ceramics, glass, aviation, packaging and quick service restaurants face the sharpest near-term pressure from supply disruptions and input cost spikes, while stronger sectors—namely compressed natural gas, oil marketing companies—are better positioned to absorb margin compression.

While risks are aplenty, support is expected from continued government capex, strong balance sheets, structural reforms, new trade agreements and range-bound inflation that is improving real wages, leading to a resilient GDP growth rate of 6.9 per cent (as per 2012 base) and excluding the impact of the West Asia war.


Ministry of Defence fully utilises capital outlay of ₹1.86 lakh crore for FY26

OPTIMUM USE. A significant portion of the expenditure went towards the acquisition of aircraft and ship building

Dalip Singh, New Delhi

The Ministry of Defence (MoD) on Wednesday said that it has fully utilised capital outlay of ₹1.86 lakh crore for defence services provided for the FY 2025-26 at Revised Estimates stage.

“This milestone achieved by the MoD is in continuation to the complete utilisation of the capital budget achieved during FY 2024-25 after many years,” the Ministry said.

The overall utilisation of defence budget including MoD (civil), and pension, during the FY 2025-26 stands at 99.62 per cent as per the preliminary data from the Controller General of Defence Accounts Department.

The original appropriation for capital expenditure was ₹1.80 lakh crore, which was further augmented by the Ministry of Finance in view of the pace of expenditure achieved by MoD during the first two quarters and considering the increased requirements.

“A significant portion of the expenditure went towards acquisition of aircraft and aero engines followed by land systems, electronic warfare equipment, armaments, ship building, aviation stores and projectiles,” Ministry said.

AIR MISSILE SYSTEM

These include proposals for the procurement of mid-air refueller, air defence missile system and Nag Missile system Mark-2 for Army, among others.

In addition to modernising armed forces, the effective utilisation of expenditure will also aid infrastructural development in the border areas.

In the Financial Year 2025-26, acceptance of necessity for 109 proposals amounting ₹6.81 lakh crore has been accorded by the MoD, compared to 56 proposals worth ₹1.76 lakh crore approved in FY 2024-25. Also capital procurement contracts for a total 503 proposals amounting ₹2.28 lakh crore were signed by the MoD in FY 2025-26.

With a hike of 22 per cent in the budget, the Ministry expects to sustain its modernisation drive.

Tuesday, March 31, 2026

Newspaper Summary 010426

 

IT sector faces modest Q4 despite healthy deal pipelines

Sanjana B | Bengaluru

India’s IT sector is prepared for a steady but modest Q4FY26, as analysts highlight that selective demand, weak discretionary spending, and elongated decision cycles are offsetting early AI-led opportunities and healthy deal pipelines. Mid-single-digit expansion currently reflects a steady recovery for the industry.

ANALYSTS’ TAKE

  • Tier-1 firms have indicated strong deal bookings.
  • Enterprise spending remains selective.
  • Sequential growth is likely to stay modest.
  • Early AI-led opportunities are supporting modest growth.

Harshal Dasani, Business Head at INVasset PMS, noted that while Q4 demand appears stable, it is not yet broad-based. He explained that large deal pipelines remain healthy, driven by vendor consolidation, cloud transformation, and cost optimisation, with initial traction in AI-led projects adding a new layer of opportunity.

NO BREAKOUT

Dasani characterized Q4 as a "quarter of measured execution rather than a breakout". He observed that discretionary spending is returning unevenly and decision cycles remain elongated, particularly in the retail and BFSI verticals. Consequently, sequential growth is expected to stay modest, with revenues supported by deal ramp-ups rather than fresh spending. While controlled costs and lower attrition may stabilize margins, transition costs and pricing pressure could cap the upside.

STRONG DEAL BOOKING

Tier-1 companies have reported strong deal bookings in recent quarters, indicating that underlying demand remains intact even if revenue conversion is gradual. A report from BNP Paribas highlighted that deal signings hit a five-month high of 14 in February, up from 10 in December 2025.

Tushar Badjate, Director of Badjate Stock Shares, explained that the sector closed Q4 in a moderated demand environment, especially across global markets that contribute 70% of export demand. Enterprise spending was selective, with budgets focused on AI-led efficiency initiatives, cloud migration, and maintenance, while large-scale transformation programs were often re-scoped or deferred.

Large-cap firms delivered flat to low single-digit sequential growth with margins between 18-25%, while mid-tier firms outperformed them due to niche capabilities and AI integration.

Pareekh Jain, Founder and CEO of EIIR Trend, expressed optimism that the current quarter would be stronger than the last, supported by steady BFSI demand, accelerating AI momentum, and positive results from Accenture. However, he warned of rising concerns for FY27, noting that the Gulf conflict could drive up oil prices and trigger a second-order impact that might delay AI investments and general tech spending.


Bots take charge in the poll battlefield

From generating digital posters to decoding data, AI now powers political war rooms Sindhu Hariharan | Chennai

As campaigning for the Assembly polls intensifies, the war rooms of major political parties are leaning heavily on artificial intelligence (AI) to navigate a hyper-social media world. Once a niche technology, AI is now a mainstream tool used for recreating the voices of late leaders, producing targeted content, and analyzing public sentiment.

STRATEGY AND OUTREACH

  • Strategic Tool: Digital marketer Shubho Sengupta observes that while AI was primarily a production tool for faster creatives in 2024, by 2026 it has moved to the strategy layer. It is now utilized for real-time constituency sentiment analysis and micro-targeted messaging.
  • Efficiency: PR Shiva Shankar, the BJP candidate for the Ernakulam constituency, notes that AI brings a cost and time-effective dimension to outreach while enabling more informed, data-led strategies.

HOW PARTIES ARE USING AI

  • Left Front (Kerala): To counter allegations of a supposed understanding with the NDA, the CPI(M) released an AI-generated explainer reel acting as a report card for the LDF government’s achievements over the past decade.
  • DMK (Tamil Nadu): TRB Rajaa, Secretary of the DMK IT Wing, states the party uses AI to swiftly craft digital content and interpret feedback and data more effectively. However, he maintains that human intelligence remains the primary driving force in politics.
  • BJP (Tamil Nadu): SG Suryah, President of the TN BJP Youth Wing, has a dedicated team using AI to create digital posters and video content in minutes through correct prompts. They also employ AI for booth analysis to automate workflows and generate reports on key constituencies.
  • Congress: Deepak Joy mentions that while AI is useful for highlighting opponents' shortcomings, it must be used with care. Local teams are also being provided with analysis tools to help create specific campaigns.

Unrealised tax demands rise to ₹38 lakh crore by FY25-end

Sourashis Banerjee | Chennai

Tax authorities have continued to raise tax demands in both direct and indirect taxes, resulting in strong growth in unrealised tax demands in recent years. Budget documents show that these demands amounted to more than ₹38 lakh crore toward the end of FY25.

Direct Tax Dominance

A businessline analysis of Union Budget documents shows that these demands have been significantly higher in direct taxes, where they grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26% between FY20 and FY25. In contrast, unrealised indirect tax demands grew at a slower pace of 8.7% annually over the same period.

The growth in unrealised direct tax demands has been striking:

  • Overall Increase: From ₹11 lakh crore in FY20, the figure rose to approximately ₹36 lakh crore in FY25, a three-fold increase.
  • Income Tax: Unrealised demands alone reached ₹19 lakh crore in FY25.
  • Corporate Tax: These demands stood at ₹16 lakh crore.

By comparison, unrealised indirect taxes reached ₹2.6 lakh crore in FY25, up from ₹1.7 lakh crore in FY20. This divergence suggests that the bulk of aggressive tax assessments is concentrated in direct taxes, raising concerns about structural issues in tax administration.

Litigation and Recovery Concerns

The inordinately high backlog suggests the possibility of frivolous tax demands being issued by the I-T department to meet revenue targets. With 44% of these demands under litigation, their enforceability is in question. Large demands often remain unrealised for years, suggesting overestimation at the assessment stage. This contrasts with indirect taxes, where collections are transaction-based and harder to dispute.

Recent & Undisputed Demands

A closer look reveals that more than half (56%) of unrealised direct taxes are not under dispute as of FY25. A large share of these demands is relatively recent:

  • 21% of undisputed taxes have been outstanding for 1-2 years.
  • 17% fall in the 2-5 year bracket.

Even among disputed taxes, the largest shares lie within the 1-5 year range. However, approximately 6% of undisputed taxes and 1.6% of disputed taxes have been pending for over a decade, indicating long-standing inefficiencies in resolution and recovery.


India to face pressure as US seeks plurilateral e-comm moratorium,

TRADE TIFF: New Delhi may need to align with Brazil and Turkey to safeguard policy Amiti Sen | New Delhi

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has announced that Washington will seek commitments from various countries to pursue a plurilateral e-commerce duties moratorium agreement. This move follows the actions of Brazil and Turkey, who "blocked" the extension of the existing moratorium at the WTO Ministerial Conference in Yaoundé, a development that is expected to place fresh pressure on India.

Experts suggest that New Delhi, which has long questioned the moratorium due to rising revenue losses and a lack of clear definitions, may need to align with Brazil and Turkey to safeguard its policy space and preserve its negotiating leverage. Greer expressed frustration that the WTO could not reach a consensus to make the moratorium permanent or even extend it for more than two years, specifically naming Brazil and Turkey as the two nations that blocked an extension until December 31, 2030.

WHAT IS IT?

The WTO e-commerce moratorium was first established in 1998 as a temporary, two-year agreement to not impose customs duties on electronic transmissions. Under this pact, while physical goods are taxed at the border, digital equivalents—such as software, e-books, and streaming services—remain duty-free. While it had been renewed every two years since its inception, the moratorium lapsed at the conclusion of WTO MC14 due to disagreements over its duration. Despite this, the USTR asserted that the US has secured commitments from dozens of countries and nearly all major trading partners to refrain from imposing tariffs on US digital transmissions.

‘COMMON SENSE AIM’

Greer stated that if the WTO cannot achieve this "common sense aim," the US will work outside of the WTO with all interested partners, inviting them to commit to a plurilateral agreement,. Unlike a multilateral deal, a plurilateral agreement involves only a subset of countries rather than the full WTO membership.

Parminder Jeet Singh, a founding member of the Just Net Coalition, described the end of the moratorium as a "historic moment". He noted that it marks an opportunity for developing nations to view their digital economies through the lens of digital industrial policies, proper regulation of foreign firms, and the collection of due taxes, as most value flows across borders will soon be digital.

Ranja Sengupta, Senior Researcher at Third World Network, India, argued that India should support Brazil and Turkey for standing up for the Global South, which has been losing billions in potential revenue. While she expressed skepticism about how a plurilateral agreement would function for those who stay out, she warned that there would be significant US pressure on developing countries to join if such an agreement moves forward.


What happens when CAD rises

Saumitra Bhaduri & Shubham Anand | Madras School of Economics, Chennai

The escalation of conflict in the Middle East has pushed global oil prices higher, exposing a familiar fault line in India’s external position. Despite robust domestic growth and contained inflation, the rupee has slipped to record lows and equity markets have turned volatile. This is a "flow story" overwhelming a "stock story": war-driven energy shocks and a stronger dollar have collided with thinner, more flighty capital inflows.

THE DISCONNECT

On paper, India’s macro story is reassuring: growth is projected at 7.4 per cent this fiscal, reserves are near $701.4 billion, and the current account deficit (CAD) is about 0.8 per cent of GDP. Yet the rupee fell by more than 5 per cent last year.

Ordinarily, a modest CAD is easily financed, but in 2025 foreign portfolio investors pulled back and net FDI softened as profit repatriation and outbound investment rose. With less "patient capital," the rupee became more sensitive to shifts in risk appetite; as oil buyers needed more dollars just as investors sought safety, the currency took a hit from both sides.

RUPEE DYNAMICS

Purchasing power parity (PPP) indicates where the currency tends to settle once shocks fade. Our pre-shock estimate placed the rupee roughly 18 per cent below PPP fair value. However, India’s adjustment towards PPP is slow, with a half-life of more than five years. In one year, only 13 per cent of the adjustment towards equilibrium is typically completed. This path is too slow and bumpy to offset a sudden oil-and-dollar shock.

THE TRANSMISSION

Because India imports most of its crude, pricier oil raises the import bill before quantities can adjust, widening the CAD. Multi-country evidence suggests that for oil importers, a 1 per cent real oil price shock can worsen the current account balance (CAB) by up to 0.08 percentage points (pp) of GDP over five years. For India, a sustained 10 per cent real increase in oil could translate into roughly a 0.8pp deterioration in the CAB over five years.

PATH FORWARD

Durable currency strength requires more than growth; it requires resilience in flow dynamics during stress.

  • Near-term: Calibrated fuel-tax adjustments to smooth pass-through, deploying FX reserves to counter disorderly moves, and diversified sourcing.
  • Medium-term: Attracting "stickier" capital, especially greenfield FDI, by maintaining a predictable policy regime and reducing policy uncertainty.
  • Long-term: Raising export complexity and scale in manufacturing while accelerating energy security through strategic reserves and the renewables transition.

By turning recurring oil-and-flows vulnerabilities into managed risks, India can safeguard its currency through well-calibrated policy responses.


For a permanent ‘stabilisation fund’

S Adikesavan

The creation of an Economic Stabilisation Fund by the Finance Ministry represents a move toward establishing institutional mechanisms to respond to economic shocks. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman noted that in an era of global uncertainty, India must equip itself with dedicated institutional buffers to ensure unforeseen disruptions do not derail the country's growth trajectory.

DEALING WITH CRISES

While many advanced economies have established Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs), these are typically intended for long-term asset management rather than the short-term macroeconomic stabilization envisioned for this new fund. Historically, governments have relied on expansionary fiscal policies, such as during the 2008 financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic, to cushion downturns.

In India, deficit financing during these periods was largely achieved through domestic currency borrowing, which insulated the economy from exchange rate risks. During the pandemic, fiscal deficits rose to over 9 per cent of GDP without destabilizing the economy, eventually tapering to about 4.5 per cent, suggesting that higher deficits can be managed under certain conditions.

FIVE STEPS FOR IMPLEMENTATION

To ensure the Fund is reliable, flexible, and transparent, the article proposes five foundational steps:

  1. Legislative Framework: The Fund should be established with a statutory basis through Parliament, similar to the Monetary Policy Committee. While maintaining a clear structure, the government should have the authority to deploy funds swiftly in emergencies without prior approval.
  2. Regular Annual Allocations: The corpus should be supported by annual allocations from the Union Budget. A target of ₹5 lakh crore (roughly 1.5 per cent of GDP) would signal a serious policy commitment.
  3. State Participation: States should be encouraged to contribute in exchange for "drawing rights" during times of need. This mechanism could include special provisions for strategically vulnerable regions like the North-East, Jammu & Kashmir, and Ladakh.
  4. Independent Governance: To insulate the Fund from political considerations, it should be managed by an independent board of trustees consisting of domain experts. Transparency should be maintained through annual reports tabled in Parliament.
  5. State-Specific Contingencies: Complementary mechanisms should allow States to levy temporary, purpose-specific cesses through GST amendments to address local crises, using Kerala’s 2018 flood cess as a template.

As global uncertainties become the norm, building such institutional resilience is no longer optional but imperative for economic stability.


BJP promises ₹5 lakh cr investment for Assam

Guwahati: Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman released the BJP’s manifesto for the Assam Assembly polls on Tuesday, promising the protection of land, heritage, and dignity for indigenous people alongside a ₹5 lakh crore infrastructure investment.

SANKALP PATRA HIGHLIGHTS

The BJP’s Sankalp Patra comprises 31 promises, including:

  • The recovery of encroached land from Bangladeshi Miyas.
  • The implementation of a Uniform Civil Code.
  • Ensuring the development of the State and providing employment opportunities for the youth.

Sitharaman stated that the manifesto was prepared based on a "decade of transformation" in the State, which she alleged the Congress failed to achieve in 60 years. She further claimed that peace has been "restored in Assam" under BJP rule and emphasized that development is only possible with such stability.

AFSPA AND REGIONAL GROWTH

The Finance Minister noted that while Assam lived under AFSPA for 32 years due to Congress policies, the BJP has ensured the law was removed from most States. She also highlighted a shift in migration patterns, claiming that many young Assamese are now leaving global careers to return to Assam because of the opportunities currently available in the State.


‘Vijay’s solo entry may split anti-DMK vote, favour DMK alliance’

T E Raja Simhan | Chennai

The entry of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) founder C Joseph Vijay into the electoral fray has added a new dimension to the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections 2026, according to Thol Thirumavalavan, Founder of the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK). Thirumavalavan noted that Vijay’s prominence and significant media coverage have made him a central figure in the current political discourse.

STRATEGIC IMPACT

Thirumavalavan observed that Vijay has successfully turned the electoral arena into a focal point of public attention. He argued that had Vijay aligned with an anti-DMK coalition, it could have posed a serious challenge to the DMK-led alliance. However, by contesting independently, Vijay is likely to draw a share of anti-DMK votes that might otherwise have consolidated behind the AIADMK-BJP combine. This fragmentation of the opposition vote could, in effect, work to the advantage of the DMK alliance.

While Vijay has asserted that the contest is solely between the DMK and the TVK, Thirumavalavan noted that both the AIADMK and the BJP do not regard Vijay as a significant factor and remain focused on their objective of defeating the DMK.

VCK’S ASSEMBLY BID

Thirumavalavan has decided to contest the Assembly elections himself, despite currently being a Lok Sabha member. He explained that the Legislative Assembly is the "primary arena of Tamil Nadu’s political landscape," whereas the scope to exert tangible influence in Delhi is limited to debates. He believes that, as of now, the DMK alliance stands as a strong coalition with significant public support and that there is little possibility of a hung Assembly.

RESERVATIONS ON WELFARE MEASURES

Answering a question on the proliferation of welfare measures, the VCK leader expressed reservations about "freebie politics". He stated his firm conviction that, with the sole exception of education, nothing else should be provided free of cost. He criticized the current situation, noting that education is not being provided for free, nor is it receiving adequate financial support, while both the DMK and AIADMK engage in the "indiscriminate distribution of goods and services under the guise of welfare".


Unilever food arm to join McCormick in $45 b deal

Bloomberg

Unilever has agreed to combine its food business with spice maker McCormick in a $44.8 billion deal that will create a global seasonings, sauces, and condiments company. Under the agreement, McCormick will pay the Anglo-Dutch company $15.7 billion and provide the equivalent of $29.1 billion in McCormick shares for the majority of Unilever’s food business. This arrangement will leave Unilever and its shareholders with 65 per cent of the combined entity, including McCormick brands such as French’s mustard.

BIGGEST DEAL

The deal is the largest in the histories of both companies and will help recast Unilever as a global leader in beauty, personal, and home care. Simultaneously, it will turn McCormick into a more significant competitor in the global packaged food business. The transaction will be carried out through a Reverse Morris Trust, a type of merger designed to be tax-free.

The transaction represents a highly ambitious move by McCormick, a company best known for its red and white spice containers. Notably, McCormick is a much smaller company, with its entire business generating only half the sales of Unilever’s food arm.


Pricey memory chips hit smartphone sales in 2026

Vallari Sanzgiri | Mumbai

Smartphone sales in India declined nine per cent year-on-year due to a combination of rising memory component costs and seasonal softness, according to data from Counterpoint Research’s India Weekly Smartphone Sell-out Tracker.

PRICE HIKES AND MARKET IMPACT

By the ninth week of 2026, more than eight brands had already implemented price increases, with an average hike of ₹1,500. Despite the resulting impact on consumer footfalls and overall sales, these hikes are expected to continue rising, and new product launches are being introduced at higher price points.

While Republic Day sales provided a temporary boost primarily for online channels, sustained premiumisation helped maintain value growth for the sector. Prachir Singh, Senior Research Analyst at Counterpoint Research, noted that the market started the year on a low note as "persistent price increases continued to weigh on consumer demand," further exacerbated by limited promotional intensity and fewer new launches.

BRAND PERFORMANCE

Despite the broader market slump, some brands saw growth:

  • Vivo: Recorded the strongest annual sales growth at 19 per cent in the first nine weeks of 2026, driven by new launches and the performance of its Y and T series.
  • Apple: Grew 12 per cent, supported by discounts and sustained demand for the iPhone 17 series.

OUTLOOK FOR 2026

The market faces a challenging year ahead. Tarun Pathak, Research Director at Counterpoint Research, projected that India’s smartphone market could decline by around 10 per cent in 2026. He attributed this to ongoing global uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and rising prices for essential commodities, all of which weigh on discretionary spending. While the premium segment is expected to remain resilient, affordability constraints will continue to hinder demand in the mass segment, resulting in a gradual and uneven recovery.


Monday, March 30, 2026

RBI Bulletin Mar 2026

 

Good Finance, Good Leadership: On the Road to Viksit Bharat@2047

Shri Swaminathan J.

Prof Nitin Upadhyay, Dean of Academics; Prof Jabir Ali, Dean of Faculty and Research; Prof Pranab Das and Dr. Ashish Kumar, Conference Chairs of this event; Distinguished speakers, panelists and guests; Faculty members, and above all, my dear students. A very good morning to all of you.

Before I begin, let me say it is a pleasure and privilege to be at IIM Jammu, one of the youngest IIMs. In a short span, it has built momentum as a premier academic institution, and conferences like IFAC are part of that journey—bringing together faculty, students, and practitioners to engage with real questions in finance and accounting.

The theme this year is ambitious and important: financial strategies for inclusive and sustainable economic growth to achieve Viksit Bharat@2047. It is a theme that belongs not only in policy papers and boardrooms, but also in classrooms, because it is ultimately about how lives improve over time.

Since the audience today includes many young MBA students, I want to speak less like a regulator and more like someone speaking to future leaders. Imagine it is your first job and your first salary hits your account. You have choices. You can spend it. You can save it. Or you can invest it. Now pause and ask yourself: before you do any of these three, what are the few things that you want from the financial system?

  • Safety, so that your money is secure even when conditions become difficult.
  • Fairness, so that products are not designed or sold in a way that exploits information gaps.
  • Reliability, so that services work smoothly in daily life, and if something goes wrong, it gets resolved without running from pillar to post.

These three assurances are not only personal preferences. They are also a useful way to think about the kind of financial system India needs as we move towards 2047.

Apart from big numbers like GDP or GDP per capita, development is also about the quality of daily life: better jobs, stronger households, safer financial choices, and resilience when shocks occur. It is about whether growth feels real, broad-based and inclusive.

Finance will have to play a pivotal role in this transformation. It will have to mobilise savings, allocate capital, and manage risk. Done well, it will support enterprises and households across the country.

So, the first-salary question is not just a thought experiment. Over the next two decades, many decisions that will shape India’s financial system will be taken by people like you — in Banks and NBFCs, fintechs and payment firms, audit and consulting, corporate finance and treasury, start-ups, and in Government and public institutions.

India of 2047 will not be shaped only by technology or capital. It will be shaped by leadership of young students like you.

Leadership in finance is not just about intelligence. It is about judgement. It is about discipline. It is about what you choose to reward, what you choose to question, and what you choose to fix early.

When people think about finance, they often imagine numbers, models, and markets. These things matter. But finance is, at its core, a people business. Behind every deposit is a household trying to be secure. Behind every loan is an ambition to grow. Behind every insurance policy is a fear of uncertainty. Behind every fraud is a moment of vulnerability. Behind every failure of controls is a real loss borne by someone who did not fully understand the risk. If you remember that, you will become a better finance professional and a better leader.

Since this is a finance and accounting conference, let me add one more point. Finance needs numbers, but more importantly, it also needs integrity in numbers. In the age of dashboards and AI, it is easy to forget that accounting is a discipline of clarity. It forces us to recognise losses, admit uncertainty, value assets prudently, and explain performance in a way that others can rely on. In many organisations, the true difference between a good institution and a weak one is not how fast it grows, but how truthfully it measures itself.

I want to offer you a “career compass” in three parts. These are not technical rules. They are a few lessons that my own journey in banking has taught me, often the hard way. If you keep these in mind, I believe your decisions will be sound, and your leadership will be enduring.

1. Respect the customer First part of the compass is to respect the customer. In the long run, customer outcomes are the strongest business strategy. They reduce disputes, lower reputational risk, and sustain participation in formal finance.

Many problems in finance start small, sometimes, quite literally, in the ‘small print’. A fee not explained clearly; A clause buried in the terms; A loan that is easy to take but hard to repay; or A product sold to meet a target, not to meet a need. Over time, these small problems become big issues. They show up as complaints, disputes, defaults, and customer harm. Therefore, we should endeavour to design and sell products that are suitable, transparent, and fair. The best leaders prevent harm before it occurs. They do not wait for problems to become headlines.

2. Respect the financials Second part is to respect the financials. The financial statements tells you what is sustainable and what is not. It tells you whether you are building strength, or simply postponing risk. Look beyond profits to the quality of assets, the stability of funding, the adequacy of buffers, and the concentration of exposures. Strength is built in good times and revealed in stress.

When times are good, you will always find reasons to relax discipline. Competition is intense. Targets are high. Growth looks easy. Risk appears distant. That is exactly when leadership matters the most. The best leaders use good times to build buffers, improve controls, and strengthen governance. They ask uncomfortable questions when everyone else is celebrating.

3. Respect governance The third and last part of your career compass is to respect governance. Many failures in finance are not failures of knowledge. They are failures of governance. People knew what was going wrong, but they did not speak up. Or they spoke up, but no one listened. Or everyone noticed red flags, but incentives pushed them to look away.

As leaders you should endeavour to build systems where growth, risk, and conduct are aligned. Encourage effective challenge. Reward the right behaviours because ultimately what gets rewarded gets repeated. Foster an environment where teams can raise concerns without fear, where risks are discussed honestly, where numbers are not forced to look good.

Now let me translate this compass into a few practical habits you can use early in your career.

Ask better questions Many people ask, “How fast are we growing?” A better question is, “What could break?”

  • Ask, “What assumptions are we making, and what happens if they go wrong?”
  • Ask, “What happens if the customer’s cash flows fall?”
  • Ask, “What happens if the system is down for a day?”
  • Ask, “What happens if a third-party service provider faces an outage?”
  • Ask, “What happens if fraud spikes in a new channel?”

These questions are not the mark of a pessimistic ‘doubting Thomas’; they are the risk-sensitive questions, mark of a prudent leader. One of the most valuable skills in finance is not giving answers. It is asking the right questions at the right time.

Communicate simply A leader who cannot explain a product, a risk, or a decision in simple language often does not understand it deeply enough. Complexity is sometimes necessary, but confusion is not. Whether you work in credit, markets, compliance, audit, or fintech, your ability to explain clearly will be a major advantage.

Choose the long term over the easy short term There will be moments where the easy path is tempting. A shortcut in due diligence; A small compromise on disclosure; A “temporary” relaxation of standards; or A target that encourages aggressive sales. These compromises may look small in the moment, but they compound. In finance, small compromises can become large losses.

Now let me connect this back to the national agenda of Viksit Bharat@2047. India’s next phase of growth will require three things to happen together.

  • We need a steady flow of capital into productive areas that create jobs and capabilities.
  • We need inclusion that is meaningful, where people and small enterprises can use finance safely, not just access it.
  • And we need customer outcomes to remain fair as finance becomes more digital and more data-driven.

This is where your generation will be tested, because your generation will work in an environment where everything scales quickly. A product can reach ten million people within months. A credit model can approve loans in seconds. A payments platform can process massive volumes.

This scale is powerful, but it also means that harm can scale quickly if design is poor, controls are weak, or incentives are misaligned. Therefore, in finance, speed is not always a virtue. Sometimes speed hides weakness. Technology is a force multiplier. It amplifies good design as well as bad design. Eventually, the future will reward institutions that can combine efficiency and innovation with prudence, and growth with resilience.

Conclusion Let me conclude by emphasising that the journey to Viksit Bharat@2047 is a collective endeavour. It will require sound institutions that can support growth through cycles; inclusion that improves real outcomes for households and enterprises; and customer protection that keeps pace with innovation.

If we align capital with capability, innovation with safeguards, and inclusion with well-being, the aspiration of 2047 will steadily become a lived reality for millions. It will call for leaders who can combine performance with principles, and ambition with discipline.

Before I close, my sincere thanks to the Director, faculty, staff and student team of IIM Jammu for the effort that has gone into organising IFAC 2026. Platforms like these help connect classroom learning with the realities of life, and they sharpen the judgement that future leaders will need.

With this I wish you a very engaging and insightful conference. Jai Hind.


Perspectives on India’s Growth: Last Four Decades to the Present

Dr. Poonam Gupta

It is my pleasure and honour to deliver the 14th Foundation Day Lecture of the Centre for Development Studies (CDS). Established in October 1970 by Professor K. N. Raj, CDS has been a premier academic institute in India for social science and development research, with a pioneering footprint in economic research on human development, labour, industry, international trade, migration, and local governance.

The topic for my talk today focuses on some of the salient features of India’s economic growth in recent years and how they may be contextualised over the past four decades. I focus on three defining features of India’s growth trajectory: first, its sustained momentum and gradual acceleration; second, the coexistence of rapid expansion with macroeconomic stability; and third, a demonstrated resilience reflected in increasingly stable and predictable economic outcomes.

1. Economic growth has accelerated slowly but surely

Looking at the pace of economic growth since the 1980s, the Indian economy has slowly but surely accelerated at an average pace of 0.03 percentage points a year during the past four and a half decades. While the growth rate averaged 5.7 per cent during the 1980s, it improved to 5.8 per cent in the 1990s, to 6.3 and 6.6 per cent during the 2000s and 2010s respectively, and further to 7.7 per cent during the last four years (excluding COVID years). Ten-year rolling averages of annual GDP growth rate confirm this trend acceleration and show that there have not been any periods of prolonged stagnation or secular decline.

The acceleration in per capita income growth has been even faster. From a modest level of US$ 274 in 1981, India’s per capita income has increased nearly tenfold to about US$ 2700 in 2024. While it took about 23 years from 1981 to double per capita income, it has increased almost five-fold in the subsequent 22 years. IMF projections suggest it will increase to US$ 4346 by 2030.

A significant contributing factor has been the decline in population growth. India’s population growth rate has declined faster than the global rate and has been at par with the world average since about 2014. While death rates have fallen, the decline in fertility rates since the 1980s has been even faster, resulting in slowing population growth even as the working-age population share continues to increase.

Since the early 1990s, India has grown much faster than the rest of the world, with its share of the global economy increasing three times from 1.1 per cent in 1991 to 3.5 per cent in 2024. India’s per capita GDP as a percentage of world per capita GDP has also increased from 7 per cent to close to 20 per cent over the same period. Regression analysis shows that this acceleration is specific to India and was not witnessed at an aggregate level by seven other major emerging economies (the EM7).

2. Indian economy has experienced a virtuous cycle of accelerated growth and macroeconomic stability

Macroeconomic stability is typically assessed through outcomes like inflation, deficits, and financial sector health, all of which have remained in a healthy range for India with notable recent improvements.

  • Inflation: Average annual CPI inflation has moderated and become more stable, declining from close to 10 per cent in the 1990s to below 5 per cent in the last four years under the flexible inflation targeting (FIT) regime.
  • Current Account: India’s decadal average current account deficit (CAD) has varied within a moderate range of 0.5-2.2 per cent of GDP since 1990, halving to about 0.75 per cent in the last six years. This resilience is supported by diversified inflows, particularly services exports and remittances.
  • Fiscal Discipline: Institutionalised through the FRBM Act, 2003, fiscal management has helped build resilience. Even though public debt is higher than in many countries, it is sustainable because a large part is held domestically, in long tenors, and denominated in local currency. Following COVID-19, fiscal policy shifted back to consolidation by 2022, accompanied by a dramatic increase in capital expenditure and signs of improved direct tax collection.
  • Banking Health: After a decade of balance sheet repair, Indian banks are in a structurally stronger position. Capital positions are robust, with the Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets Ratio at 17.2 per cent in September 2025, and asset quality is at multi-year highs with the GNPA ratio declining to 2.1 per cent.

3. Economic outcomes have become less fickle and more predictable

Economic outcomes now materialize within a narrower range, indicating enhanced stability. Agriculture has seen improved growth and reduced volatility since 2010, and Services, the main supply-side driver, has experienced distinctly lower volatility.

This reduced volatility stems from the economy becoming more resilient to known shocks. The negative correlation between agriculture and rainfall deviation has weakened significantly due to crop diversification, expanded irrigation, and better weather information. Furthermore, the economy is more insulated from global oil prices as the oil intensity of GDP has declined consistently, a trend expected to persist as India transitions toward renewable energy.

Policy frameworks have evolved to reflect global best practices adapted to domestic realities, including rule-based fiscal consolidation, GST reforms, and flexible inflation targeting. These frameworks, along with cushions built during quiet times, allow the government and RBI to respond promptly to shocks like reversals of external capital flows, further insulating the real economy.

4. Conclusion

High, stable, and accelerating growth, along with predictable economic outcomes, have become the hallmarks of the Indian economy. With its macroeconomic stability, policy consistency, and diversified demand and production bases, the Indian economy is assured of a continuously improving economic trajectory. This contrasts with the more modest promise of many other emerging and developing economies that lack one or more of these enabling factors.


No. 19: Consumer Price Index (Base: 2024=100)

Group/Sub group2025* Rural2025* Urban2025* CombinedRural Feb. 25Rural Jan. 26Rural Feb. 26 (P)Urban Feb. 25Urban Jan. 26Urban Feb. 26 (P)Combined Feb. 25Combined Jan. 26Combined Feb. 26 (P)
1. Food and beverages102.3102.9102.5100.4103.9103.8100.6104.3104.0100.5104.0103.9
2. Paan, tobacco and intoxicants103.1102.8103.0101.9104.4105.4101.8104.4105.4101.9104.4105.4
3. Clothing and footwear105.0103.9104.6103.5106.6106.8102.8104.8105.0103.2105.9106.1
4. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels101.6101.2101.3100.8102.1102.2100.4101.9102.0100.6102.0102.1
5. Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance102.5102.4102.4101.7103.1103.3101.7102.8102.9101.7103.0103.1
6. Health102.8103.3103.0101.8103.7103.6102.2104.2104.3102.0103.9103.9
7. Transport100.9100.8100.8100.8100.7100.7100.7100.6100.7100.7100.6100.7
8. Information and communication103.5103.1103.4103.3103.6103.7102.9103.0103.1103.1103.3103.4
9. Recreation, sport and culture102.7102.6102.7102.0103.8104.1101.8104.2104.3101.9104.0104.2
10. Education services103.4104.1103.8101.7104.8104.8102.1105.7105.7102.0105.3105.4
11. Restaurants and accommodation services103.8104.7104.3103.0104.8105.1103.3106.6106.8103.2105.7106.0
12. Personal care, social protection and miscellaneous goods and services108.2108.4108.3103.9123.1125.2104.2122.1123.4104.0122.7124.5
All India General CPI102.8102.7102.8101.3104.6104.7101.3104.3104.4101.3104.5104.6

Notes:

  • P: Provisional.
  • ‘*’: Arithmetic mean of all monthly indices of calendar year 2025.
  • Source: National Statistical Office, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India.



Digitalisation for Inclusive Finance and Sustainability: Priorities for the Next Phase

Shri Swaminathan J.

Professor Partha Ray, Director, National Institute of Bank Management (NIBM), Shri Jaikish, Principal, College of Agricultural Banking (CAB), distinguished delegates, researchers, faculty, policymakers, industry leaders, colleagues from India and overseas, ladies and gentlemen. Good afternoon.

As we come to the close of this International Conference on Digitalisation for Inclusive Finance and Sustainability, let me begin by congratulating CAB and NIBM for convening an important conversation at the right time. I am sure the participation over the last two days has been strong, and the discussions have been both forward-looking and grounded in practical realities.

As I reviewed the papers presented, one message came through clearly. Digitalisation is not a goal by itself; it is a means. The real question is: how do we use digital tools to deliver financial services that are accessible, affordable, safe, and useful, while also supporting sustainability and resilience? Against this backdrop, I would like to reflect on three shifts shaping this landscape, then underline what I would call the confidence architecture needed for digital finance at scale, and finally offer a few closing priorities for the road ahead.

From access to capability and confidence

The first shift is in how we look at inclusion. For a long time, access meant inclusion, but the next phase of that is about something deeper: capability and confidence. Inclusion becomes meaningful when households and small businesses can use financial products and payment rails regularly and safely.

Indeed, many discussions in the papers presented here highlight the idea that barriers to inclusion are not only physical; they can also be informational and behavioural. People may have connectivity but lack confidence. They may have access but not agency. They may have a digital tool but not the ability to resolve a problem.

This is why design matters. Effective inclusion solutions often look simple on the surface, but they are thoughtfully engineered underneath. They use plain language, work in low bandwidth settings, and allow assisted journeys. They respect the realities of irregular incomes and modest savings.

A special dimension of capability is the gender gap in digital finance. Bridging this gap is not about devices and connectivity; it requires building women’s digital and financial skills and improving safety and privacy further in digital journeys. If we want digital inclusion to endure, products and processes must be designed around these realities.

From faster finance to fair finance

The second shift is about digital credit and digital intermediation. Digital lending and platform-based models have expanded quickly because they offer speed and convenience. That is a real benefit, but credit is not like any other routine transaction. Credit can strengthen livelihoods, but if poorly underwritten, it can also deepen distress through over-indebtedness.

The discussions here highlighted a central point: the next phase of digital credit must be not only fast, but fair, transparent, and affordable. A related theme is the growing role of data and algorithmic rule engines in credit decisions. Data can reduce frictions and widen access, but it also brings up some important questions: Are we pricing risk, or pricing vulnerability? Are decisions explainable in plain language? Are models being monitored for bias and drift? These questions shape customer confidence, market discipline, and the credibility of the digital finance ecosystem.

From sustainability as a separate agenda to sustainability as core resilience

The third shift is the assimilation of sustainability into mainstream finance. Sustainability is sometimes treated as a specialised product line or a reporting exercise. As climate and environmental risks do translate into financial risks, especially for climate-sensitive sectors and regions, sustainability has to be integral to our products and processes.

At the same time, digitalisation offers tools to strengthen resilience. Better data can improve risk understanding, more responsive credit can support adaptation investments, and digital monitoring can improve transparency and reduce the cost of compliance and reporting. But we should also be realistic: sustainability outcomes require more than digital tools. They require sound institutions, robust capital, and good governance. Digital transformation can enable, but it cannot substitute for the fundamentals.

Confidence architecture is the next frontier

If you bring these three shifts together you will see that the next frontier is not simply building more digital finance; it is building digital finance that people can rely on. This calls for an ecosystem with strong foundations, with four key elements:

  1. Security and resilience: As participation scales up, vulnerabilities also scale up. We must invest continuously in cyber security, fraud prevention, incident response, and business continuity. Confidence is built through reliability in ordinary times, and through competence and clarity when disruptions occur.
  2. Accountability and effective redress: When a customer is harmed in a digital journey, they should not be passed from one entity to another. Responsibility must be clear, and grievance redress should be simple, time-bound, and effective. A system earns confidence when people experience that help is real, accessible, and fair.
  3. Data discipline and meaningful consent: Digital finance runs on data, but data must be handled with discipline: purpose limitation, minimum necessary collection, secure storage, and transparent sharing. Consent must be meaningful, not hidden in fine print.
  4. Inclusion with dignity: Inclusion is not only onboarding; it is ongoing service. It is also language, appropriate accessibility and respectful treatment. It is designing for the person who is least comfortable with technology, not only for the person who is most fluent.

Before I turn to the closing priorities, let me briefly underline the critical contribution of digital public infrastructure and interoperability. When core rails are resilient, widely usable, and interoperable, they reduce the cost of reaching the last mile and allow providers to compete on service quality rather than on customer lock-in. They also make it easier to deliver targeted support at scale. However, the wider the rails, the higher the responsibility. Strong governance is essential, including clear standards, reliable uptime, and proportionate safeguards.

Closing: Five priorities going forward

Permit me to close with five practical priorities that can help digitalisation deliver inclusion and sustainability:

  • First, build for outcomes, not optics. We should track adoption, but our focus should remain on what matters: active use, reliability, affordability, customer wellbeing, and resilience.
  • Second, design for the last user. If the journey works for the most constrained user, it will work for everyone. Simple interfaces, low-data design, and clear grievance pathways should be treated as core features.
  • Third, make fairness non-negotiable. Innovation is welcome, but fairness is essential. Transparent pricing, explainable decisions, and respectful collections should all be built into digital credit models.
  • Fourth, treat resilience as a design requirement. Operational resilience and cybersecurity are not mere compliance items; they are integral to service quality.
  • Fifth, collaborate. Digital finance and sustainability sit at the intersection of regulation, technology, business incentives, and human behaviour. Progress requires collaboration across regulators, financial institutions, fintechs, researchers, and civil society.

Conclusion

In conclusion, digitalisation increases reach and speed, but it also increases vulnerabilities. The task before us, therefore, is to ensure that digital finance scales what is good: inclusion that is usable, innovation that is responsible, and finance that supports resilience and sustainability.

On behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, I thank CAB and NIBM for hosting this conference, and I thank all participants for contributing to a meaningful and constructive dialogue. I hope the ideas discussed here translate into safer rails, better products, and more sustainable outcomes for our citizens and our economy.

Thank you. Jai Hind.


* Valedictory Address by Shri Swaminathan J, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India at the CAB–NIBM International Conference on Digitalisation for Inclusive Finance and Sustainability, in Pune on March 6, 2026.





Newspaper Summary 310326

 

Panic buying sparks spike in fertilizer sales

Prabhudatta Mishra — New Delhi

Farmers appear to be stock-piling fertilizers as government sales data for March show a sharp spike in demand. By March 23, the volume of crop nutrients purchased had already 0vertaken the estimated demand for the full month and surpassed sales from the same period last year.

As much as 20.21 lakh tonnes of urea were sold during February 28-March 23 as against 16.2 lt in the whole of March 2025 and the estimated demand of 14.96 lt for the month.

Similarly, 4.78 lt of di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) was sold during that period against an estimated demand of 2.43 lt for the whole of March 2026, while 1.58 lt of muriate of potash (MoP) was sold against 1.8 lt of estimated demand, and 7.22 lt of complex was sold against 7.05 lt of estimated demand.

While the government has neither confirmed nor denied the sudden increase in sales this month, it maintained that there was enough stock to meet the demand. Sources said higher demand was noticed from a few States, including Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra.

Urea sales this month — at 2.63 lt up to March 6 — rose to 6.74 lt by March 13, up 56 per cent week-on-week. Sales have risen further by about 13 lt during March 14-23, they said.

STOCK VERIFICATION

A senior government official of an eastern state admitted that a few districts had reported higher sales in March. Detailed instructions had been given to the Collectors to watch daily sales figures and undertake physical stock verification. In western Uttar Pradesh, fertilizer purchase, which is mainly meant for maize and sugarcane, has risen in the last few days.

In Ludhiana, Punjab, the secretary of a cooperative society said there had been a marginal increase in sales this month, with mostly farmers buying for their potato and maize crops.

Rampal Jat, a farmer leader from Rajasthan, noted that a significant uptick in fertilizer sales is still some time away. He explained that the state is currently in a lean period and most farmers lack the financial or storage capacity to stockpile supplies so far in advance.

Raghunath Dada Patil, a farmer leader from Maharashtra, said the government needs to verify whether farmers are really buying higher or whether retailers are keeping the stock by showing sales on the record.

“There is a clear preference for fertilizers that are cheaper and where farmers have been facing scarcity season after season. In irrigated areas where paddy planting begins around June 1, farmers, in anticipation of a shortage, have stocked up in advance. It will be interesting to see if farmers continue to buy in May,” said agriculture scientist A K Singh.


Manufacturing drives industrial growth to 5.2% in February

Production output expands 6%; mining & power post modest gains

Our Bureau — New Delhi

With strong performance of the manufacturing sector, industrial growth, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), rose to 5.2 per cent in February from 5.1 per cent in January.

LEADING SECTOR

According to data released by the Statistics Ministry, the manufacturing sector’s output growth accelerated to 6 per cent in February 2026 compared to 2.8 per cent in the year-ago month. Mining production growth slightly improved to 3.1 per cent compared to 1.6 per cent recorded a year ago. Power generation growth stood at 2.3 per cent in February, down from the 3.6 per cent expansion seen in the year-ago period.

MOMENTUM STEADY

Rajeev Sharan, Head of Research at Brickwork Ratings, stated that on a month-on-month basis, the index eased from January’s high. He described this as a “natural correction” after the strong December–January run-up rather than a fundamental loss of momentum, noting that capital goods output continues to rise sequentially. Overall, the data confirms that investment-linked sectors are anchoring growth, while softer consumer non-durables and modest gains in mining and electricity highlight areas where recovery remains incomplete.

BASE EFFECT

Devendra Kumar Pant, Chief Economist at India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra), noted that industrial growth in February benefited from a low base effect. Post-festive demand has remained relatively strong, with average growth from November 2025 to February 2026 reaching 6.4 per cent, the highest since August-November 2023.

WEST ASIA CRISIS

While demand has been strong, the West Asia crisis is expected to alter the situation. Pant highlighted reports of LPG shortages forcing certain industries to scale down production. Additionally, a possible moderation of remittances, particularly from West Asia, is expected to impact demand and, consequently, industrial production.

“IIP growth in March 2026 is likely to be impacted by the base effect and the initial impact of the West Asian crisis. Ind-Ra expects it to grow 3.9 per cent,” Pant said.


Fiscal deficit touches 80% of RE in April-February

Our Bureau — New Delhi

India’s fiscal deficit in the April-February period of the current fiscal reached ₹12.5 lakh crore, or over 80 per cent of revised estimates (RE), according to government data released on Monday. This is lower than the ₹13.5 lakh crore or 86 per cent of estimates recorded during the same period last year.

REVISED ESTIMATES

Fiscal deficit represents the gap between the government's income and expenditure. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, during the Union Budget presentation on February 1, revised the fiscal deficit target to ₹15.58 lakh crore (from ₹15.7 lakh crore), which is 4.4 per cent of the GDP. While economists expect the government to meet the absolute deficit number, some suggest it may end up slightly higher as a percentage of the GDP.

In February alone, the deficit widened to ₹2.71 lakh crore from ₹1.77 lakh crore a year earlier, primarily driven by higher capital expenditure.

REVENUE RISES

On the revenue front, net tax collections rose to ₹21.5 lakh crore during this period, compared to ₹20.2 lakh crore a year ago. Non-tax revenues also saw an increase to ₹5.8 lakh crore from ₹4.9 lakh crore. Total government expenditure stood at ₹40.4 lakh crore, up from ₹38.9 lakh crore in the corresponding period of the previous year.

EXPERT ANALYSIS

Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA, noted that while the Centre’s capital expenditure (capex) needs to contract by 31 per cent in March 2026, its revenue expenditure (revex) is expected to expand by a sharp 45 per cent. She highlighted that the net cash outgo of ₹2 lakh crore announced under the 2nd Supplementary Demand for Grants (SDG) will likely keep expenditure elevated in March, ensuring the fiscal deficit remains aligned with the RE.

Overall, ICRA expects the fiscal deficit to settle at 4.5 per cent of GDP in FY26, slightly higher than the RE, due to a downward revision in nominal GDP figures.

FUTURE RISKS

Nayar also mentioned that an expected reduction in excise duty could result in a revenue loss of ₹1-1.2 lakh crore in FY27. Furthermore, she warned that the West Asia crisis has introduced material risks to the budget math for FY27, potentially keeping crude oil and natural gas prices elevated for a prolonged period, which could further strain both expenditure and revenue.


Digital villages: ₹3 lakh cr funds processed virtually

Panchayati Raj Institutions transferred ₹53,342 cr via eGramSwaraj-PFMS in FY26 alone

Dalip Singh — New Delhi

In a major milestone for grassroots governance, more than 2.5 lakh gram panchayats across India have collectively processed over ₹3 lakh crore in online payments since April 2019 through eGramSwaraj, the Ministry of Panchayati Raj’s digital platform.

Every rupee has gone directly to vendors and service providers in real time, with a full and transparent digital audit trail, the Ministry officials explained, saying the move is aimed at curbing mismanagement of rural funding.

PAPER TO VIRTUAL

Developed under the e-Swaraj initiative, the platform has fundamentally changed the way gram panchayats plan, account for and spend public money, overwriting the earlier regime of cash-based, paper-driven village-level expenditure. Now, the virtual system is fast, accountable and fraud-resistant, officials stated.

In FY26 alone, Panchayati Raj Institutions transferred ₹53,342 crore through the eGramSwaraj-PFMS interface, with 2,55,254 gram panchayats uploading their development plans on the portal during the same period, said Ministry officials. So far, a total of 1,60,79,737 vendors have registered.

The system covers traditional local bodies and Sixth Schedule areas in 28 States, including Kerala. Under the 14th Finance Commission, ₹2,00,292.20 crore was allocated to the gram panchayats. Out of this total allocation, ₹1,83,248.54 crore has been released, including ₹3,774.20 crore to Kerala.

“This milestone is the direct result of the Ministry of Panchayati Raj’s sustained and unrelenting commitment to making every panchayat digitally empowered. It stands as proof of the trust that over 2.5 lakh gram panchayats have placed in technology as the backbone of panchayat-level financial governance,” Secretary Panchayati Raj Vivek Bharadwaj told businessline.


The global economy’s many chokepoints

Excessive dependence enables extortion or other forms of pressure, exemplified by China’s rare-earth export controls, America’s enforcement of sanctions via SWIFT

Michael Spence

Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and a quarter of its fertilizer passes, has highlighted a well-known vulnerability of our complex networked global economy: a single point of failure can create massive and costly disruptions. Yet such points of failure have been proliferating for decades.

Global trade flows through a number of other critical passages, which could also become disruptive bottlenecks. The Strait of Malacca — one of only two sea lanes linking the Indian Ocean to the Pacific — receives much attention in war simulations. When the Suez Canal was blocked for six days by the Ever Given in 2021, the disruption reverberated across supply chains for months. The Panama Canal raises similar risks.

MARKET CONCENTRATION

Excessive market concentration generates similar vulnerabilities. The dominance of a few Japanese producers of microcontrollers and engine airflow sensors meant that, when a massive earthquake and tsunami hit Japan in 2011, the global auto industry contracted sharply. Since then, automakers have diversified suppliers and built up buffer stocks to identify hidden single-source risks.

But diversification comes with trade-offs, as seen in the advanced-semiconductor sector. A single Dutch company, ASML, produces all the extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment required for advanced semiconductors. Only two companies, Taiwan’s TSMC and South Korea’s Samsung, can produce 2-nanometre semiconductors.

Governments are now promoting geographic diversification, with the US and EU providing incentives for TSMC and Samsung to diversify production, while China invests heavily to reduce dependence on external sources.

RESILIENCE VS EFFICIENCY

While this approach might increase resilience, the sector can ill afford lower efficiency. Advanced semiconductors are crucial for training generative-AI models and advancing physical-AI applications like robotics and autonomous vehicles.

Rare earths represent another notable vulnerability; China alone controls about 60 per cent of global rare-earth mining and over 90 per cent of processing. Points of failure also characterize the financial sector, such as the US-controlled SWIFT inter-bank messaging system.

Excessive dependence enables extortion or pressure, exemplified by China’s rare-earth export controls, America’s enforcement of sanctions via SWIFT, and US President Donald Trump’s use of tariffs.

OPTIMISING FOR RESILIENCE

In decentralized networks, investors often optimize for efficiency (where benefits are appropriable to the investor) rather than resilience (where benefits are spread across the network). However, networks with greater concentration of ownership are more likely to optimize for resilience.

For example, three companies (Alcatel Submarine Networks, SubCom, and NEC) maintain 87 per cent of the global undersea fiber-optic cable network. These "architects" have a powerful incentive to build resilience into the system as part of the package they sell. The same is true in the auto sector, where players like Toyota control large chunks of the supply chain, and for the internet, where the US government acted as the primary architect.

GOVERNMENT ROLES

When markets undersupply resilience, countries must step in. They can "onshore" production, increase international cooperation, or pursue a combination of both. A crude rule of thumb is that cooperation is less expensive than onshoring and more effective in principle, but much harder to achieve.

Whatever approach countries choose, eliminating or mitigating points of failure will be expensive. But, at a time of growing fragmentation and deteriorating cooperation, it is a cost they will have to bear.


The writer, a Nobel laureate in economics, is Emeritus Professor of Economics and a former dean of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University.

Expectations from MPC

K Srinivasa Rao

The ongoing West Asian conflict poses unprecedented challenges for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which meets in a week from now. The global economy faces turmoil, with rising inflation and possible slowing growth, disrupting the path of policy rates and inflation-control plans. While India is fairly resilient, it cannot fully insulate itself from global interest rate trends as FPI outflows threaten exchange rate stability.

POLICY UPDATES

A couple of policy updates will reassure the MPC: the CPI inflation glide path of 4% ± 2% is extended for another five years until March 31, 2031, and the base year for CPI inflation assessment is changed to 2023-24. Similarly, the base year for GDP is shifted to 2022-23, and the IIP base year shift to 2022-23 will take effect in May 2026.

EXTERNAL HEADWINDS

As of now, inflation and growth parameters are in the comfort range, but headwinds are strong. The energy crisis and supply chain disruptions caused by restricted freight passage through the Strait of Hormuz will impact economies reliant on energy imports. Iran’s attacks on US assets in Gulf states could cause collateral damage, such as the return of Indian workers and a negative impact on remittances.

Collectively, these disruptions could drive up inflation and disturb policy rate management. For instance, during the recent FOMC meeting on March 18, the US Fed kept policy rates unchanged despite inflation remaining at 2.8-3.1 per cent, well above its 2 per cent target. Similarly, the UK and ECB retained policy rates despite elevated inflation.

INFLATION & GROWTH OUTLOOK

The CPI inflation during FY26 is expected to be around 2.1 per cent, as projected in the previous policy review. It rose to 3.2 per cent in February, which is below the 4 per cent mark, but steep upside risks remain, especially amid crude price hikes and LPG disruptions. The Chief Economic Advisor noted that while a price of $90/bbl is manageable, a sustained price of $130/bbl for two to three quarters could drag GDP growth down to 6.4 per cent.

In view of these developments, the repo rate may remain unchanged, with the policy stance continuing to be ‘neutral’; specific relief measures may be rolled out to help banks and businesses navigate these tough times.

BEYOND POLICY RATES

Amid increasing collateral risks, banks' asset quality might come under pressure as credit costs rise. Liquidity risks remain high, as credit growth of 13.8 per cent exceeds the deposit growth rate of 10.8 per cent (as of March 13, 2026), with the credit-to-deposit ratio reaching 83 per cent.

  • Liquidity Fixes: The RBI’s liquidity adjustment facility window could serve as a temporary fix for banks.
  • Digital Deposits: Banks must comply with the ‘run off’ provisioning of 2.5 per cent on deposits linked to digital modes starting April 1.
  • Medium-Term Funds: The RBI might propose LTROs to offer medium-term funds, increasing banks’ lendable resources to overcome asset-liability mismatches.
  • MSME Support: Temporary relaxations in IRAC (issue, rule, application, conclusion) norms for the MSME sector may be proposed.

Going forward, the government may also unveil financial assistance on the lines of the Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme. The April policy may see unconventional regulatory enablers to help businesses overcome the current crisis.


The writer is Adjunct Professor, Institute of Insurance and Risk Management, Hyderabad. Views expressed are personal.


India’s sovereign AI models find early takers among healthcare, educational institutions

Vallari Sanzgiri — Mumbai

Strong early demand from healthcare and educational players is emerging as a key validation for India’s push to build sovereign AI models, with companies under the India AI Mission reporting interest from both domestic and overseas institutions seeking country-specific solutions.

Since the launch of the India AI Mission, many tech companies have aired plans to launch sovereign AI solutions for India. Among those, Fractal Analytics and Tech Mahindra said their offerings, slated for completion by 2026, are already drawing traction, particularly from hospitals and educational institutions looking for customised, locally-relevant AI applications.

Nikhil Malhotra, Chief Innovation Officer and Global Head of AI & Emerging Tech at Tech Mahindra, said the company is currently engaged in multiple ongoing discussions across regions such as Eastern Europe and South-East Asia for its AI model. In India, Tech Mahindra’s foundational model is one of the most downloaded models, indicating growing developer and ecosystem interest. The company plans to roll out the model across State and Central government ecosystems in a phased manner once it reaches production readiness.

“For the education-focused LLM being developed in collaboration with partners, early feedback has been positive, with stakeholders appreciating its localised approach, linguistic relevance and alignment with national priorities,” said Malhotra, adding that the model is currently in an advanced stage of refinement.

Meanwhile, Suraj Amonkar, Chief AI Research Officer at Fractal Analytics, said the company received a very good response for their Vaidya 2.0 models from healthcare institutions. The models offer use-cases involving health chatbot integration and specialised areas such as report understanding, general wellness, and symptom triaging.

“The Vaidya 2.0 models are foundational in nature and help with multiple use-cases across various healthcare areas for both general users and specialised needs,” Amonkar stated.

Aside from these companies, businessline also reached out to Gnani.AI, BharatGen and Sarvam AI, which announced sovereign models during the India AI Summit, but they did not respond by the time of publishing.

SOME LIMITATIONS

Despite the interest from healthcare and educational entities, companies could not confirm a similar response from enterprises. According to Anushree Verma, Senior Director Analyst at Gartner, it is not easy for a service provider to simply adopt a sovereign AI solution.

While she approved of company roadmaps to build holistic models focusing on inferencing, she added that she did not anticipate an immediate push for sovereign AI that could escalate adoption among broader enterprises.