Famous quotes

"Happiness can be defined, in part at least, as the fruit of the desire and ability to sacrifice what we want now for what we want eventually" - Stephen Covey

Friday, April 03, 2026

Newspaper Summary 040426

 The article titled "Lessons from an ex-Goldman Sachs CEO" appears as a featured interview highlight in the sources:

"For those well versed with the world of high finance, very few firms come close to matching the mystique of Goldman Sachs. The investment banking giant is not only a Wall Street icon but also a prolific talent factory for boardrooms. Needless to say, the chief executive’s role at Goldman Sachs is among the most coveted and scrutinised. In an interview with Abhishek Mukherjee, Lloyd Blankfein, who led the firm from 2006-18, recounts the stormy days of the 2008 global financial crisis, his advice for good workplaces and good investments, his positive outlook on the Indian economy, and discusses his newly published memoir,"


Custodians brace for Sebi’s FPI net settlement reforms

Market regulator approved net settlement for FPI cash trades to align with global practices By Apoorva Ajith | Mumbai

Indian custodians are preparing for operational disruption after the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) approved a shift to net settlement of trades for foreign portfolio investors (FPIs). The regulator is pressing ahead with these reforms despite industry calls to make the change optional.

The move, cleared at Sebi’s March board meeting, allows FPIs to settle funds on a net basis in the cash market, replacing the system where each leg of a transaction is settled separately. While the change is aimed at reducing funding costs and aligning India with global practices, intermediaries warn it could strain systems and workflows. Some industry participants have also questioned the timing of the implementation amid volatile global conditions.

Gross vs. Net Settlement

Under the current gross settlement system, FPIs must fund each transaction independently. For example, if an investor buys and sells ₹100 crore worth of stocks, they must bring in funds for the purchase and separately deliver the sale, even if the net cash position is zero.

Netting removes this inefficiency by offsetting obligations. In the same scenario, proceeds from a sale can be used to fund a purchase, eliminating the need to bring in the full ₹100 crore. However, this shift also compresses timelines, requiring trades to be confirmed by the evening for settlement the next morning, leaving less room for late changes.

In a press release, Sebi stated the decision was made "with a view to enhancing operational efficiency and reducing cost of funding for FPIs" and will apply to outright transactions where there is only a purchase or a sale in a security within a settlement cycle.

Operational Complexities

Custodians, who are at the center of trade execution and settlement, argue that the shift introduces significant complexity as trades flow through multiple layers of global and local intermediaries.

Utkarsh Singh, senior manager at SBI-SG Global Securities Services, noted, “It may not be a great time to implement netting right now due to the geopolitical tensions... FPIs may become cautious due to so many changes being implemented by custodians at such a volatile time". Despite these concerns, he added that the regulator views these changes as the "need of the hour".

Intermediary Challenges

Because FPI trades are often routed through both global and local custodians across different time zones, custodians have flagged difficulties in accommodating late trade changes once positions are netted.

  • Churning and Time Zones: "There will be business implications on custodians as a lot of churning will happen during a day," Singh explained. He noted that 60-70% of FPIs route trades through a global custodian.
  • System Inefficiency: Some participants suggest custodians prefer gross settlement because netting across FPIs could make the system inefficient for global custodians.
  • Taxation and Coordination: A clearing corporation member highlighted that explaining netted payments—which must also account for taxes like securities transaction tax—to global custodians will be complicated. "If tax is ₹6, then ₹39 will be paid. In essence, when crores worth of money are involved, it is complicated to explain to a global custodian," they said.

Timeline for Rollout

While the operational burden is high, Sebi has provided a long implementation runway, with the framework set to be rolled out by 31 December. Taxes and stamp duties will continue to be levied on a delivery basis.

Despite the friction, some see the long-term benefit. Khushboo Chopra, head of business development at IQ-EQ, stated, "By aligning India with international settlement standards, this move slashes funding cost and reinforces our market’s appeal as a frictionless destination for global capital".


What’s cooking for staff meals at restaurants?

By Rituparna Roy

In 2011, Spanish chef Ferran Adrià released a book titled The Family Meal, inspired by the home-style dishes his team cooked at the three-Michelin-star restaurant El Bulli. Similarly, chef Thomas Keller highlighted the importance of communal team meals in his 1999 The French Laundry Cookbook. At Noma in Copenhagen, a celebrated ritual involves the kitchen team taking turns cooking dishes from their own home countries. Chef Niyati Rao of Mumbai’s Ekaa recalls her imli chutney being a hit during one such "family meal" internship.

Staff meals, often called family meals, are considered vital for building community and providing a moment of pause before the intensity of service. They serve as a platform for chefs to showcase regional dishes from their hometowns and can even spark innovations that later move to the restaurant's main menu.

Several Indian chefs shared their restaurant’s staff meal rituals with Lounge:

  • Koyel Roy Nandy (Sienna Calcutta): Their meals often feature everyday Bengali food or regional specialties from team members' homes. Summer menus include panta bhaat (fermented rice) and aamer tok dal (raw mango flavoured dal), while seasonal vegetables are used for shukto or macher jhol. A smoked tilapia salad brought from Manipur by a chef was so successful it was adapted into tacos for the restaurant’s permanent menu.
  • Hussain Shahzad (Hunger Inc. Hospitality): At The Bombay Canteen and O Pedro, a monthly roster guides meals. Mornings start with regional favorites like idli or besan cheela, while lunch is a balanced spread of dal, sabzi, and rice. Late-night suppers are more indulgent, featuring fried rice or masala pav. The key ritual is everyone sitting down to eat together.
  • Regi Mathew (Kappa Chakka Kandhari): The team, hailing from across India, finds comfort in daily staples like rice, curry, and thoran. Everyone from the kitchen to management shares the same meal. A unique monthly tradition is the “puff party,” where the entire team gathers for tea and puffs to connect away from the pressure of service.
  • Manav Khanna (Banng): These meals provide an opportunity to use leftovers or kitchen scraps creatively. For example, stems of morning glory or kale are transformed into Thai-style stir-fries, and fish trimmings are seasoned and grilled in banana leaves.
  • Ansab Khan (Burma Burma): Menus adapt to local tastes across different cities—soya chaap in Delhi and bisi bele bhaat in Bengaluru. Sundays often feature treats like chole bhature, while the pastry team provides twice-monthly desserts like fruit trifle or caramel custard.

These biryani lunches and regional favorites help foster essential camaraderie among kitchen teams before the rush of service begins.


A collective that speaks in one voice

Bengal’s Panjeri Artists’ Union uses performance to get audiences talking about politics, society and things that matter By Avantika Bhuyan

In January, the Coir Godown at Aspinwall House, Kochi, turned into a site of performative memory as two artists—Samapti Mondal and Bhaskar Hazarika—walked around with a funeral bed on their head. After setting the wooden structure down, Samapti and Bhaskar, both members of the Panjeri Artists’ Union (PAU), started sorting out a mesh of blue and red threads while sharing experiences of living together amid linguistic tensions and identity politics. A symbol of caste-based religiosity, the bed became both an object and stage, and the body turned into a site for labour as well as remembrance.

Performance has emerged as a powerful medium for the Bengal-based PAU to articulate thoughts about urgent issues such as caste, marginalisation, and political resistance, as well as more personal themes of care. The lived experiences of the various members coalesce in different durational performances such as Try to Remember. The union, formed on 21 February 2022, comprises 14 practitioners from realms such as visual art, design, literature, film, and academia. Deriving its name from a traditional navigational tool used by boatmen to sail across Bengal’s riverways, PAU is deeply embedded in the very communities its members hail from. The collective has quickly carved a niche for itself for making collaborative, socially impactful art.

Members note that performativity is not their only focus; their practice also addresses questions of artistic labour, post-colonial theory, visual culture, and social justice. As a result, their work manifests in many forms—as exhibitions, workshops, discussions, zines, conceptual texts, visual essays, and archival explorations. At the Serendipity Arts Festival 2023, for instance, PAU showcased a multidisciplinary project as part of the exhibition, Turning: On Field and Work, curated by Vidya Shivadas. Using sculpture, textile, poetry, and video, the members evoked the experience of living and working on Jessore Road, Kolkata, where personal memories met the long history of migration and belonging that marked this vital site.

Last year, as part of the Birla Academy, members explored the history of the Great Bengal and the resulting famine and displacement. At times, silent conversations were held with sculptures and statues, and at other times texts were read out and songs performed in response to the site. Multidisciplinary artist Anupam Roy emphasizes that "collaboration" is central to the union's identity. He states that performativity is rooted in local cultural practices and that it is important for cultural workers to engage with people rather than inhabit a passive space.

Members Samapti and Bhaskar hail from Durgapur and Assam, respectively. In Try to Remember, they negotiated memories of each other’s families and knowledge systems. Bhaskar elaborated that Samapti’s father worked in a factory in Durgapur that was shut down, while he grew up in Assam immersed in extreme identity politics. They both share experiences of marginalized life and being overlooked. Working with entangled threads was symbolic for them, as Bhaskar’s mother is a weaver, and he notes that material carries memory, showing the entangling of personal and social experiences.

In conversations, members like Pinak, Bhaskar, and Anupam shared that the process is often more significant than the resulting work. Projects change shape as collaborators join, and individual concerns intersect or run parallel to collective practices. For Pinak, fields of inquiry include linguistic tensions and the complexity of translation, being deeply impacted by violence against Bengali-speaking people across India. Together with Labani Jangi, he responded to these events with the Manifesto Translation Lab, using text to move between Malayalam and Bengali to highlight translation as a site of rupture.

Labani Jangi, a research scholar, focuses on identity formation and the erasure of subaltern voices, drawing from her daily realities as a Muslim woman. She notes that Panjeri’s roots lie in border villages and towns, with most members hailing from marginalised communities. Bhaskar has also focused on recontextualising traditional practices like bhauna performers—a theatrical form rooted in Naaamdharma founded by Srimanta Sankardeva—which features non-Brahmanical voices shaped by caste histories.

For PAU, the viewer is not a separate entity, and they believe it is problematic to draw a line between performer and audience. Anupam Roy recalls a project in Lalgola, Murshidabad, centered on Bhaskar’s experiences of the Brahmaputra, which acquired a new context by the river Padma acting as a border between India and Bangladesh. The performance led to hours of intense exchange of lived experiences with residents, students, and parents sharing stories of the river as a border and harbinger of change. Roy realized that performance can propose a space for such exchanges, and Bhaskar emphasizes the need to move away from romantic notions of art.


Lessons from Revathi’s life

RE READINGS: A monthly column on backlisted books that have much to offer in contemporary times By Somak Ghoshal

On 11 December 2013, a two-member bench of the Supreme Court dealt a body blow to the fight for LGBTQ+ rights in India when they overturned a landmark 2009 judgement by the Delhi high court that had deemed Section 377 of the Indian Penal Code unconstitutional,. It took another five years of protests, appeals and legal arguments for the community to get the apex court to read down this draconian law. As the judgement was being delivered, Justice Indu Malhotra, one member of the bench, made a statement in her concurring opinion that has been widely quoted and shared since.

“History owes an apology to the members of this community and their families, for the delay in providing redressal for the ignominy and ostracism that they have suffered through the centuries,” she wrote, referring to the queer community. “The members of this community were compelled to live a life full of fear of reprisal and persecution”.

Eight-odd years later, India’s queer community is once again confronted with a historic injustice. The Transgender Persons (Protection of Rights) Amendment Bill, 2026 has just been passed by both houses of Parliament. President Draupadi Murmu gave her assent on 30 March, making it law. However, large gatherings of LGBTQ+ community members and their allies oppose it because the Act undermines one of the fundamental rights of trans people: the right to self-determination of their gender identity.

For cis-gendered people, the idea of gender fluidity may be difficult to grasp. Even if it makes sense theoretically, the ground reality of being and living as a transgender person is hard to envision. The problem is accentuated by stereotypical depictions of trans people—mostly trans women who are the more visible members of the community—in popular culture, media and mythologies.

However, in the last few years a series of autobiographies by members of the community—Smile Vidya’s I Am Vidya (2013), Me Hijra, Me Laxmi (2015) by Laxmi, Kalki Subramaniam’s We Are Not The Others (2022) and The Yellow Sparrow (2023) by Santa Khurai, among others—has sought to convey the visceral realities of the trans experience to a general audience,. One of the earliest books in this growing line of life writing was A. Revathi’s The Truth About Me: A Hijra Life Story, published by Penguin Books India in 2010 in historian V. Geetha’s translation.

Over the last few days, I have been revisiting Revathi’s story, which I first read 15 years ago, and reckoning with the lines of devastation that connect the past and present. Born in a village near Namakkal in Salem district of Tamil Nadu, Doraisamy could have opted for a regular life like his elder brothers did: driving lorries to deliver milk for a living and raising a family,. Instead, he turned out to be what his family and neighbours labelled a “girl-boy”.

Ill at ease in his body, Doraisamy felt most alive when he dressed up as a woman and danced at the Mariamman festival in his village. Despite taunts from society, rebuke from his parents, and violent beatings from his brothers, he ran away from home and joined a community of hijras, who became his chosen family. Eventually Doraisamy emerged as Revathi (the name inspired by the famous Tamil actress) and lived an itinerant existence, cared for by her guru and nani (elders of her hijra clan) in Mumbai, Bengaluru, and elsewhere. She was also a victim of abuse and hatred from fellow hijras, who envied her for her looks and demand among her clients when she started doing sex work.

The raw, unfiltered, and often graphic narrative style of The Truth About Me can feel triggering, yet it is also the reason why memoirs like Revathi’s are so valuable—not just as personal testimony but also as social history. Apart from taking the reader into the inner workings of the hijra ecosystem, a complex familial structure with its unique rules and decorum, the book reveals the peculiar moral inconsistencies of the rural community where Revathi grew up. Until she was a “girl-boy”, the whole world made her fodder for ridicule, casual violence, and transphobic slurs. But once she returns home, not as a prodigal son but as a woman who has had “the operation”, the hostility transforms into confusion, even awe.

In a memorable instance, the priest allows Revathi to enter the temple of her family deity, a “virgin goddess”. It’s a place that is out of bounds for women who have not yet stopped menstruating. Since she looks no different from a woman, everyone around her assumes she is one and tries to prevent her from entering the temple, though the priest, who had known her since childhood, is wiser. Once he dispels the confusion, Revathi overhears someone in the crowd say, “You’re not like us, you’re like the goddess, unblemished, unlike us who’ve done wrong”. It is a strange moment of validation as well as denial—an acknowledgement of the difficulty the rest of the world runs into when trying to fathom the “third gender” identity, but also a form of acceptance tinged with respect towards such a person.

Revathi experiences a similar dilemma with her parents, too. While her mother is unequivocal in her disapproval the first time she learns about Revathi’s gender-reassignment surgery, it is her father who offers his support. He urges her to fight for her rightful share of property even as her brothers threaten her with dire consequences if she did so.

Since the publication of her book, Revathi has become an icon for transgender rights. Her autobiography is studied at colleges and universities around the world. It has been adapted for the stage and a version of it has been performed by Revathi herself as an extended monologue. Having joined Sangama, an NGO that works for transgender rights, she has become a leading voice among activists. Her life and career have changed in ways she could have scarcely imagined—as have the times we now live in.

In 2026, trans rights are being publicly discussed and debated, and proudly fought for. Yet, there are still many Doraisamys, ill at ease in the body they were born in, dressing up in women’s clothes, and bullied by society. Role models like Revathi braved the storms and stresses, and lived through hell, so that the younger generation can live with dignity and pride. The newly amended law not only disregards the rights of the queer community but also makes a trifle of all the pain and sacrifice they had to collectively endure to get to this point.


West Asia war pulls markets lower, but 22,000 holds firm

Further gains depend on geopolitical developments, with escalation risks likely to unsettle markets By Ram Sahgal | Mumbai

The Indian market seems to have made a temporary bottom near the 22,000 level, with the zone eliciting strong buying interest from domestic investors and goading options sellers into writing puts at that strike.

Analysts expect a bounce near the 23,000-23,200 band following Thursday’s sharp intraday recovery. They caution, however, that any escalation over the weekend could upset their forecasts. “Thursday’s recovery and close above the previous session low sets a bounce in motion towards the first resistance level of 23,000-23,200, so long as the war doesn't escalate in the intervening period,” said Sahaj Agrawal, senior vice-president research at Kotak Securities. Friday was a market holiday for Good Friday.

Market Impact Since February

Since the war began in February, the market has fallen almost 12% from 25,178 to Thursday’s low of 22,182.55. Over the same period, crude rose 50% to $109.24 a barrel due to supply constraints from the Strait of Hormuz. This surge followed Iran's statement that ships from non-hostile countries may pass via Hormuz only after paying a toll of $2 million per vessel.

Despite the fall, the market has found repeated support at 22,000.

  • 23 March: Nifty bounced from 22,471.25 to close at 22,912.4 the following day.
  • 30 March: After falling to 22,283.85, it rebounded to 22,941.3 on 1 April.
  • Latest Test (Thursday): Nifty slipped to an intraday low of 22,182.55 but closed at 22,713.1, up 0.15% from the previous session and a sharp 2.4% from the day’s low.

Outlook and Resistance Levels

Rajesh Palviya, senior vice president (research) at Axis Securities, noted that the recovery on Thursday indicates a possible bounce to the 23,000-23,200 range in the short term, provided there is no steep escalation. Asked if investors had seen the worst of the war, Palviya said he could not "vouchsafe" for it unless the market decisively breaks the 23,400-23,500 levels. “We can safely say this (22,000) is a temporary bottom for now,” he added.

Kruti Shah, quant analyst at Equirus Securities, highlighted that the level of 23,512 represents a 61.8% retracement from the 52-week low of 21,743.65 (7 April 2025) to the record high of 26,373.2 (5 January). A convincing breach of this 23,512 level may extend the bounce in the market.


Followers don’t count

It’s easier than ever to go viral, but harder than ever to be remembered—turning creators into content machines By Shephali Bhatt

Over the last couple of weeks, a seemingly comforting narrative has taken over the creator economy discourse: your follower count doesn’t matter anymore. The algorithm has democratised reach, meaning a good piece of content can come from anywhere and go places. While largely true, this shift also highlights the current stage of the creator economy's evolution—it is now more crowded, more competitive, and more monetised than ever before. This environment dictates who chooses to amplify whom, which remains an essential ingredient for growth.

Content creator Raunak Ramteke from Nagpur observes a specific behaviour within these circles: “Big creators are often more comfortable sharing (content of) someone much smaller in the same niche”. This can feel generous without materially threatening the larger creator's own position or access to brand budgets, while also earning them goodwill. In contrast, engagement with peers often stops at a "like" or a comment—public alignment without meaningful amplification—because in a maturing economy, peers are also competitors.

Bhavya Raj, a 23-year-old comedy content creator from Mumbai, offers a counter-view, noting that if a smaller creator's content appears on a bigger creator's feed, it usually means it is already gaining organic traction and being pushed by the algorithm. However, the real challenge in a world where anything can go viral is no longer just being seen; it’s being remembered. Creators now feel constant pressure to be "content machines" to stay relevant.

This shift has been building since at least August 2022, when signals showed that content was starting to travel much further than the creator behind it. A viral post may travel far, but it does not always bring that same force of engagement back to the creator. For marketers, this has eroded the old certainty that a large following offered a minimum guarantee of eyeballs.

Consequently, influencer marketing may soon begin to resemble performance marketing, where brands align themselves more with specific content than with the creators themselves. In this new landscape, content is no longer just expression; it is inventory. With a finite shelf life for any given post, experienced creators have a tacit understanding: they must cash in while they are successful, because the cycle moves incredibly fast.


Russia offers India top up of crude, fertilizers and LNG

‘STRAITENED’. Hormuz disruption pushes Delhi to up reliance on Moscow energy supplies

Rishi Ranjan Kala New Delhi

Russia has offered to step up energy trade with India by supplying more crude oil and fertilizers at a time when the world’s third-largest energy consumer is exploring alternatives to meet the oil and gas deficit created by the West Asia conflict. Moscow also offered liquefied natural gas (LNG) even as India is scouting for cargoes from the US and Australia, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has impacted 47 per cent of its LNG imports.

SUPPLY BOOST

First Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Denis Manturov said on Friday that Russian companies had the capacity to steadily increase supplies of oil and LNG to India. Manturov noted that by the end of 2025, Russia had increased supplies of in-demand mineral fertilizers to India by 40 per cent and is ready to continue meeting India’s demand for this product.

In addition, a joint project for carbamide production is under development. “Particular attention was paid to cooperation in the oil and gas sector. Denis Manturov confirmed that Russian companies have the capacity to steadily increase supplies of oil and liquefied natural gas to the Indian market,” said a Russian Embassy statement.

MEETS PM, MINISTERS

Manturov, who is on a two-day official visit to India, met top Ministers and officials, including Foreign Minister S Jaishankar, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. Manturov called on Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday and held discussions. The discussions also covered areas such as industrial cooperation, space and education, the Embassy statement said.

“Expanding mutually beneficial trade, investment and industrial cooperation ties was one of the key topics on the agenda. Specific steps were discussed to create favourable conditions for increasing bilateral trade turnover in the present context,” it noted.

OMCS BUY RUSSIA OIL

Meanwhile, Indian refiners have shifted back to Russian crude oil, buying around 60 million barrels from Moscow since March 5 as closure of the Strait of Hormuz impacted 40 per cent of its imports, according to the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES).

In a first, India is buying Russian crude (at sea) at a premium, which sources said had hit a high of $8-9 per barrel. Besides, Russia is also supplying LPG to India.

OIES, in its recent energy comment, pointed out that the scale of the Hormuz disruption was like “no other seen in oil market history”. In such a scenario, one of the US tools to help put a lid on crude prices has been granting exemptions on sanctioned barrels. Russia has been a clear beneficiary of this measure.


Is awarding Trump a Nobel the best bet for peace?

The Prize is often given for nudging conflicting parties towards peace, rather than on the basis of concrete achievements

Atanu Biswas

This January, Donald Trump told Norway’s prime minister he no longer needed to think “purely of peace” after failing to win the Nobel Peace Prize. Is the same attitude being reflected in attacking Iran? After capturing Venezuelan President Maduro, the world undoubtedly understands that Trump is capable of doing anything. And besides Greenland, places like Canada, the Panama Canal, Cuba, and Mexico still exist on the world map. So, could awarding a Nobel Peace Prize serve as a strategic move to limit Trump’s actions?

Trump’s eagerness to get the Nobel Prize — perhaps to match his legacy with Obama’s — is never a secret. Yes, Obama’s nomination — after only a few days of becoming president — was highly criticised, as his achievement for “peace” was unclear. Obama himself put some distance between himself and the award, saying he viewed it “a recognition of the role of American leadership” in the world and vowed to accept it “as a call to action”.

The Nobel Peace Prize is often awarded not solely for the final, absolute achievement of peace but rather has frequently been utilised as a strategic lever — to offer encouragement, frequently acting as a “nudge” to persevere in challenging circumstances; to exert pressure; and even to take a gamble on the future.

Take some examples. Menachem Begin and Anwar Sadat were awarded the Nobel Prize in 1978 following the Camp David Accords, yet prior to a comprehensive resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict. The Nobel panel explicitly framed this as an endeavour to reinforce a fragile peace process. When Lech Wałesa was awarded the Nobel in 1983, Poland remained under military rule, and the Solidarity movement had been suppressed. Thus, the award served as a signal of international support for a desired democratic future. Aung San Suu Kyi was awarded in 1991 while she was under house arrest and no democratic transition had yet been achieved in Myanmar. Consequently, it served as a symbolic and forward-looking award.

When Nelson Mandela and FW de Klerk were awarded the Nobel in 1993, apartheid had indeed been officially dismantled; however, South Africa’s transition remained highly precarious. Thus, the clear objective was to encourage the continuation of negotiations and to deter the disruptors. Yitzhak Rabin, Shimon Peres, and Yasser Arafat were awarded it in 1994 — during the Oslo peace process, rather than after a final settlement. The award was, therefore, viewed as an effort to bring various parties together at the negotiating table and to bolster the moderate leaders on all sides.

Juan Manuel Santos was awarded in 2016, shortly after the Colombian public had narrowly rejected – via a referendum – a peace accord with the guerrilla organisation FARC. The Nobel panel stated that it was bestowed to encourage continuation of the peace process.

PROSPECTS FOR PEACE

Thus, it’s evident that the Nobel Committee often seems to believe that by empowering an individual through an award “now” — rather than waiting — the prospects for future peace are significantly enhanced. Consequently, ceasefires are frequently recognised — even before the war has ended. Similarly, moderate forces are often honoured before extremists have the chance to regain their strength.

Some of these endeavours do indeed meet with success — such as the award conferred upon Mandela and de Klerk. It’s frequently cited as a prime example of a visionary award fulfilling its intended purpose. The award given to Begin and Sadat also proved quite successful; the 1979 Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty remains one of the most enduring agreements in that region. The award to Santos also proved remarkably effective. Santos pressed ahead, and a revised treaty was subsequently ratified.

The outcomes of some forward looking prizes have been mixed or ambiguous, though. Certain peace initiatives — such as awarding Arafat or Suu Kyi — have ended in failure. Yet, overall, awarding Trump a Nobel Prize might not be a bad “bet” for peace. Although there’s no guarantee that such an endeavour would actually succeed.

The writer is Professor of Statistics, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata.


Time to push for rupee internationalisation

Higher use of rupee in cross-border payments will create demand and prevent a one-way downward spiral

Lokeshwarri SK

The ongoing crisis in the rupee, with the Indian currency edging near the 95-mark against the dollar, underlines the need for creating more demand for rupee outside India. The good news is that the usage of rupee for settling foreign trade has begun in a small way, in the last four years.

The removal of Russia from the international trade messaging platform, SWIFT, following the invasion on Ukraine in 2022 has brought about a sea change in the way policy makers approach their foreign currency reserves and international payments. Serious efforts are now underway to devise alternative platforms and channels for cross-border payments, diversify reserves away from dollar and to settle bilateral trade in local currencies. The US-Israel-Iran conflict is likely to give further impetus to this move as countries will now have to also sew up deals to ensure energy security, besides continuing to reduce their reliance on the dollar.

Rupee internationalisation, which was a pie in the sky until a few years ago, seems a possibility now, given the increasing discontent against the dollar and the policies of the US administration in recent years. This is closely aligned with increasing de-dollarisation or reduction in dollar dominance in global reserves and payments.

POLICY MOVES

Policy makers across the globe received a jolt when Russia was ostracised from global payment ecosystem in 2022. The RBI too began initiating steps to increase international use of rupee around this time. It allowed invoicing and settlement of foreign trade in rupee in July 2022. With India defying the sanction against Russian exports, India’s trade with Russia, including the purchase of Russian crude and defence supplies have been settled in rupee since 2022.

India has also entered into bilateral agreements with countries such as the UAE, Indonesia and Maldives for settlement of bilateral trade in local currencies. In December 2023, regulations were relaxed further to allow cross-border settlement with all trading partners in local currencies and rupee.

These moves have begun showing results. RBI data show that as of January 2026, 6.18 per cent of total exports of goods and services of India between April and January FY26 was invoiced in rupee, which was valued at ₹2.64 lakh crore. This share had been fluctuating around 5.80 to 5.9 per cent since FY24. Share of rupee invoicing in total imports is 4.69 per cent.

Share of rupee in settlement of Indian goods and services trade is however lower. The share of rupee in settlement of exports was only 2.76 per cent this fiscal year, while share in imports was 2.32 per cent. The gap implies presence of intent, which needs to be closed soon.

It is comforting to note that all countries are in the same boat, as far as need to reduce dependency on dollar goes. As on February 2025, permission had been given by the RBI to open 156 special rupee Vostro accounts by 123 foreign banks from 30 trading partner countries. Around 26 Indian banks are involved in this.

With resentment over the US’ high-handedness growing following the West Asia conflict, the time is now right to push for greater usage of rupee in bilateral trades.

DOLLAR DOMINANCE WANES

Dollar’s dominance, on the other hand, has been steadily waning in recent years. Unbridled currency printing by the Federal Reserve to fight the global financial crisis and then the Covid pandemic has debased the dollar, making countries look for alternatives in reliable reserve currency.

According to IMF’s COFER (currency composition of official foreign exchange reserves) data, percentage of global foreign exchange reserves held in US dollars has declined from 64 per cent in 2017 to 56.7 per cent by the fourth quarter of 2025.

But the interesting part is that share of other currencies in global reserves has moved from 2.5 per cent to 6.13 per cent in this period, indicating a move towards non-traditional reserve currencies. Gold, the other safe-haven, is also emerging as a competitor to the dollar. Share of gold in global reserves more than double from 10 per cent in 2015 to 23 per cent now.

Share of US treasury securities held by foreign countries is also moving lower. According to the US Federal Reserve, around $9 trillion or 32 per cent of US treasury securities is currently held by foreign investors. This is down from almost 50 per cent holding of overseas investors in 2014.

The role of dollar as a reference currency for settling foreign trade between third party currency increases its share in global trade invoicing. The US Federal Reserve notes that according to data collected from the SWIFT platform, the dollar’s share of international payments (both trade and remittances) is about 50 percent currently.

ALTERNATE MECHANISMS

But increasing settlement of bilateral trade in local currencies can help speed the move away from dollar. This can be aided by creating alternative settlement and messaging platform for international trade. With the SWIFT platform, governed by the Bank of Belgium, the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, handling most of global payments from the US and Europe, any country evicted from the platform would come up against a wall in processing international transactions.

The BRICS Pay, which is being designed as a cross-border financial messaging system for the BRICS countries with their national currencies, is an alternative. But dominance of China in this system could be an issue. The larger BRICS countries including China and Russia are meanwhile developing their own messaging platforms, the CIPS (cross-border interbank messaging system) and SPFS (system for transfer of financial messages) respectively. Interoperability between these platforms could be one way to develop a larger alternative to SWIFT.

Central Bank Digital Currencies being developed by almost all countries can also provide a viable channel for cross-border trade settlement. According to Atlantic Council, there are currently 13 cross-border wholesale CBDC projects including Project mBridge which connects banks in China, Thailand, the UAE, Hong Kong, and Saudi Arabia.

While these are small steps, it is best to keep up the effort to internationalise the rupee, especially now when the global sentiment is tilted against the dollar.


Trump seeks $1.5 trillion of US budget for military ops

Press Trust of India Washington

US President Donald Trump has proposed boosting defence spending to $1.5 trillion in his 2027 budget released on Friday, the largest such request in decades, reflecting his emphasis on US military investments over domestic programmes.

The sizeable increase for the Pentagon had been telegraphed by the Republican President even before the US-led war against Iran. Trump’s plan would also reduce spending on non-defence programmes by 10 per cent by shifting some responsibilities to State and local governments. “President Trump is committed to rebuilding our military to secure peace through strength,” the budget said.

Trump, speaking ahead of an address to the nation this week about the Iran war, signalled the military is his priority, setting up a clash ahead in Congress. “We’re fighting wars. We can’t take care of day care,” Trump said at a private White House event on Wednesday.

BUDGET PRIORITIES

Among the budget priorities the White House called for supporting the administration’s immigration enforcement and deportation operations by eliminating refugee resettlement aid, maintaining Immigration and Customs Enforcement funds at current year levels and drawing on last year’s increases for funds to open detention facilities.

US federal balance sheets are operating in the red, running nearly $2 trillion annual deficits and debt swelling past $39 trillion.


Textile industry urged to ‘rethink’ playbook as Asia hub faces headwinds

KV Kurmanath Hyderabad

The Asian textile ecosystem, which accounts for about 63 per cent of global textile and apparel exports, 89 per cent of the total spindles in the world, 92 per cent of texturising capacity and 82 per cent of weaving capacity, is facing several challenges. This includes an unpredictable trade environment, sluggish economic growth, cost inflation and poor margins, changing buyer behaviour and consumption.

Speaking at the 12th Asian Textiles Conference (ATEXCON 2026) here on Friday, he said that the traditional playbook was no longer sufficient to mitigate the challenges. “We must collectively re-think how we produce, source, innovate and collaborate to remain globally competitive and resilient,” he added.

GROWTH HUB

Talking on ‘Reimagining the future of global textiles’, Chandrima Chatterjee, Secretary General, CITI, said that per capita consumption...

A Revanth Reddy appealed to investors, saying, “If you have a vision, we are your perfect partners for global success. Together, we can create an end-to-end textile ecosystem, which can be a game-changer for the world”.


Wednesday, April 01, 2026

Newspaper Summary 020426

 

Oracle cuts 12,000 India jobs in global AI-led restructuring drive

BIG RESET. Workforce feels the artificial intelligence transition shock; middle-layer roles face the heat

Sanjana B, Bengaluru

Layoffs continue to plague the IT sector, with Oracle Corporation cutting around 12,000 jobs in India as part of a sweeping global restructuring tied to its AI infrastructure push. This accounts for roughly 40 per cent of a broader global reduction of 30,000 employees, spanning functions such as cloud, engineering, marketing and sales, and affecting roles from entry-level staff to senior leadership.

Employees were informed early on Tuesday, many via email, without prior one-on-one discussions, highlighting the scale and abruptness of the exercise. Mumbai-based Rohith (name changed on request), a senior cloud architect, said he was informed via an email sent around 6 am on Tuesday. While employees had sensed the coming cuts, notifications were delivered without any communication from HR or managers.

According to people familiar with the matter, the cuts span functions including cloud, communications, marketing, engineering, operations and sales, across roles — from individual contributors (IC1-IC4) and managers (M2-M6) to directors, senior ICs and even SVPs. The layoffs cut across multiple business units and geographies, impacting teams such as Revenue and Health Sciences, SaaS and Virtual Operations Services, and NetSuite’s India Development.

SEVERANCE BENEFITS

In an internal communication, Oracle said the role eliminations were part of a broader organisational rejig, adding that the day of notification would be the employees’ last working day. It said the affected staff would be eligible for severance benefits upon signing termination paperwork, in line with company policy. Sources indicated the severance package includes 30 days of gross pay for every year of service, one month of garden leave, an additional two months pay and certain insurance benefits. Oracle India declined to comment on businessline’s email queries.

STRONG Q3

The layoffs come despite strong financial performance. In Q3 FY26, Oracle reported revenue growth of 22 per cent in dollar terms and 18 per cent in constant currency, taking total revenue to $17.2 billion. During the quarter, cloud revenue stood at $8.9 billion, up 44 per cent in dollar, while cloud infrastructure revenue rose to $4.9 billion, up 84 per cent. Oracle maintained its FY26 guidance at $67 billion in revenue and $50 billion in capital expenditure, while raising FY27 revenue outlook to $90 billion. In February, the company said it planned to raise $50 billion through debt and equity, subsequently securing $30 billion via investment-grade bonds and mandatory convertible preferred stock.

ROBUST MARGINS

Oracle CEO Clay Magouyrk said on the Q3 FY26 earnings call that AI data centres were generating 30-40 per cent gross margins, with an additional 10-20 per cent flowing into higher-margin services, such as compute, storage and security. Alongside its 60-80 per cent margin multi-cloud database business, this is strengthening Oracle Cloud Infrastructure’s overall profitability.

Sanchit Vir Gogia, Chief Analyst at Greyhound Research, said, “When a company moves to that level of capital intensity, the organisation does not stay balanced. Talent, budgets and leadership attention get pulled toward the areas expected to deliver AI-era returns. Everything else comes under pressure. Alongside, vendors are doubling down on AI infra, platform capabilities and high-value engineering, while thinning the middle layers of sustaining engineering, support and repeatable delivery work.”


FinMin notifies custom duty relief on SEZ goods sold domestically

STRATEGIC MOVE. Duty to be lowered to 5-12.5 per cent; relief effective for one year

Shishir Sinha, New Delhi

The Finance Ministry has notified a relief measure allowing Special Economic Zone (SEZ) units to sell goods in domestic tariff areas (DTA) under specific conditions, effective for one year starting Wednesday. However, the notification excludes several categories from the exemption, including petroleum products like petrol and diesel, as well as various food products.

BUDGET PROPOSAL

This follows a Union Budget announcement by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman regarding a special one-time measure to facilitate sales by eligible SEZ manufacturing units to the DTA at concessional duty rates. The move aims to address capacity utilisation concerns triggered by global trade disruptions.

According to the notification dated March 31, a lower duty ranging from 5 per cent to 12.5 per cent will apply. This exemption is available only to SEZ units that commenced production on or before March 31, 2025. Furthermore, the goods must be manufactured within the SEZ and meet a minimum value addition requirement of 20 per cent.

The total value of goods cleared to the DTA under this exemption in a financial year is capped at 30 per cent of the unit’s highest annual free on board (FOB) export value from any of the three immediately preceding financial years. The relief does not extend to units in free trade and warehousing zones, nor to imported goods removed to the DTA as-is or after use.

‘A PRAGMATIC STEP’

Terming the move a “timely and pragmatic step” to address demand disruptions in export markets, Harpreet Singh, Partner at Deloitte, said: “By permitting calibrated DTA sales, the government has provided much-needed operational flexibility to optimise capacity utilisation of manufacturing units impacted by global trade disruptions, while retaining adequate safeguards to preserve the export-oriented character of SEZs.”

According to Krishan Arora, Partner at Grant Thornton Bharat, this policy change ensures that cutting-edge SEZ infrastructure does not lie idle as exporters navigate international tariff barriers and supply chain disruptions caused by the US-Israel-Iran conflict. “Domestic industry also benefits by exploiting available capacity of SEZ and shall have reduced reliance on imports which are getting both delayed and expensive, owing to the war era global economy is currently grappling with,” he said.

RESERVATIONS

However, some experts expressed reservations. Ajay Srivastava of the research body GTRI described the duty cut as “small,” noting it amounts to roughly 1 percentage point for many products. He pointed out that the absence of IGST relief, the 20 per cent value addition requirement, and the 30 per cent domestic sales cap limit flexibility for SEZ firms.

“The exclusion of petrol and diesel further weakens the policy, particularly for refinery-linked SEZs. If the objective is to boost domestic supply, stronger measures, such as restricting exports of petrol, diesel and ATF, as practised by countries like China and Singapore, may be needed,” he said.

RBI likely to hold rates on rising inflation risks

The MPC last cut the repo rate from 5.5 per cent to 5.25 per cent in December 2025

Our Bureau, Mumbai

The RBI’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to keep the repo rate unchanged at its upcoming meeting, preferring to remain vigilant as inflationary pressures could re-emerge due to high global energy prices and supply chain disruptions as the West Asia war rages on.

Moreover, worries about growth slowing due to the ripple effects of the war, which has entered its second month, could lead the six-member committee to hold the repo rate at its first meeting of FY27. The three-day meeting of the MPC begins on April 6. It is expected to retain the ‘neutral’ stance.

INFLATION THRESHOLD

Barclays economists Aastha Gudwani and Amruta Ghare said that to the extent the ongoing energy shock does not translate into CPI (retail) inflation breaching the target (4 per cent +/- 2 per cent) durably, the MPC is unlikely to hike rates.

“As long as the pump price stays unchanged, we expect the energy shock pass-through to CPI to stay muted, ensuring that the inflation outcome is aligned to the 4 per cent target. Accordingly, we expect the MPC to stay on hold through 2026,” they said in a note.

The MPC last cut the repo rate (the interest rate at which the RBI provides funds to banks) from 5.5 per cent to 5.25 per cent in December 2025. In the subsequent meeting, the committee stood pat on the rate. The stance was last changed in June 2025 from ‘accommodative’ to ‘neutral’.

GROWTH CONCERNS

Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge Ratings, observed that given the uncertain geopolitical scenario, the MPC is expected to maintain a pause at its next meeting and wait-and-watch to see how the war scenario pans out.

“While there are concerns around inflation, it (the MPC) will also be quite concerned about the growth aspect going forward... On the inflation front, I see the pass-through being partial,” she said. “But if the war prolongs, there could be severe repercussions for growth and the MPC will be concerned about that. I don’t think the RBI will be in a hurry to increase the rate because even in an extreme case scenario we are projecting inflation a little above 6 per cent.”

END OF RATE CUTS?

Sonal Badhan, Economist, Bank of Baroda, noted that the RBI is likely to announce its full-year growth and inflation forecasts, keeping in view the impact of the war on India.

“The RBI will remain vigilant and hold rates steady for the time being, without changing its stance from neutral. We also believe this to be the end of the rate-cut cycle. Further, if oil prices remain above $100/barrel for a consistently long period of time and inflation breaches the RBI’s upper tolerance band (6 per cent), then there might be a chance of a rate hike by the central bank towards the end of FY27,” she said.


Challenging year: FY27 set to be a difficult one for the economy

The new financial year begins on an uncertain note. An economy that imports 85 per cent of its oil will surely be hit by a prolonged price and supply shock. The most important question is how long this will last. Four crucial macro variables — trade deficit, current account deficit (CAD), growth and inflation — will come under stress if the shock continues well into the first quarter.

These variables also influence each other. India’s fundamentals remain robust, but real shocks can also be amplified by financial actors. The Reserve Bank of India will have to be ahead of the game. The latest Monthly Economic Review has said that FY27 will see a higher trade deficit and CAD. The extent of rise would depend on how long this shock lasts — even as demand management can keep these parameters under check. The pass-through of imported inflation will send the right market signals to curb demand and the two external deficits. The pain to be borne is inescapable; the Centre needs to act thoughtfully on distributing this between households, governments and businesses. The trade deficit is already slated to be in the region of $350 billion in FY26, or 10 per cent of GDP, against 7.5 per cent of GDP in FY25. This trend may continue if the crisis does not abate. A dire scenario is one where oil prices remain elevated at over $100-120 a barrel well into the year. This would mean an additional outgo of about $45 billion on oil imports for six months, pressurising the rupee and the deficits further at current levels of demand.

These are worst-case scenarios. While price pass-through makes sense, it could exacerbate inflation as well as inflation expectations beyond a point, hurting both supply and demand. That said, there is not much fiscal space for the government to absorb these losses, with total debt of Centre and States at about 85 per cent of GDP. The fiscal deficit will expand if the Centre is forced to compensate oil companies for holding retail prices or not fully passing on increased crude oil costs — fuel prices have been steady in the first month of the war and will likely remain so until State elections are completed in late April. A demand compression in the event of a prolonged price and supply shock may result in higher outlays for the Economic Stabilisation Fund.

Meanwhile, many Budget assumptions may not hold. Tax collections could come under pressure if overall industrial activity is hit due to scarcity or high price of raw materials. Fertilizer subsidies are bound to overshoot the budgeted sum of ₹1.7 lakh crore for FY27, with analysts estimating a ₹25,000 crore increase if the crisis persists. Adding to the problems is the prediction of El Nino setting in this monsoon year, meaning the rural sector will need support. The LPG subsidy of about ₹12,000 crore projected for the new fiscal might need an upward revision. A rise in the fiscal deficit by even 100 basis points cannot be ruled out, not least because of growth compression. The best part, though, is that this is just the start of the fiscal year. If the war ends soon, the damage to the economy in FY27 can still be contained.


India’s chance in supply chain reset

Combined with supply chain diversification, FTAs can shift India from a consumption-led market to an export manufacturing hub.

RAVI POKHARNA

For three decades, global supply chains were built on a simple premise: efficiency above everything else. Production clustered where costs were lowest, logistics fastest and scale largest. However, shocks from the past five years, including Covid-19, the Russia-Ukraine war, and recent Middle East tensions, have exposed the limits of this model and revealed a fundamental weakness in globalisation’s architecture: efficiency without resilience.

The lesson for governments and corporations is clear: supply chains are no longer just commercial arrangements; they are strategic assets. Countries are increasingly focused on mitigating vulnerabilities and reducing excessive dependence on any single geography. Export controls, sanctions, and dominance over critical inputs have turned supply chains into geopolitical tools. For multinational firms, concentration risk is the biggest vulnerability, and India is emerging as one of the most credible alternatives.

THE GEOPOLITICAL TRIGGER

Globalisation is not ending, it is fragmenting. The Middle East conflict has renewed fears about disruptions across critical trade corridors, with around 25 per cent of global seaborne oil and 20 per cent of global LNG at risk due to halts in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. Businesses are pre-emptively redesigning their manufacturing footprints to reduce geopolitical exposure.

This is precisely the window India has been waiting for, resting on four structural advantages:

  1. A large domestic market that allows manufacturers to achieve scale before exporting.
  2. A young workforce at a time when many Asian economies are ageing.
  3. Democratic institutions and legal predictability that reduce political risk.
  4. An expanding network of trade agreements.

THE FIRST BIG BREAKTHROUGH

Nowhere is this more visible than in electronics manufacturing. A decade ago, India was a major importer with only two mobile manufacturing units; today, it has over 300. Mobile phone production value surged to ₹5.5 trillion in 2024-25, and smartphone exports doubled to $30 billion. Global giants like Apple and Samsung are increasingly moving assembly, components, and design to Indian hubs as they reassess their heavy dependence on Chinese manufacturing.

THE PLI CATALYST

A key driver has been the government’s Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme. Covering 14 sectors, the programme links incentives directly to incremental production. As of early 2026, the initiative has generated over ₹20.4 trillion in cumulative production and sales, far exceeding the initial projection of ₹6 trillion.

THE EXPORT MULTIPLIER

Recent free trade agreements (FTAs) with Australia, the UAE, the UK, and the EU are expanding preferential access for Indian exporters. Combined with supply chain diversification, these can shift India from a consumption-led market to an export manufacturing hub. Logistics efficiency is also improving as costs, historically at 14-15 per cent of GDP, are gradually declining through modernised ports and the National Logistics Policy.

SCALING THE ECOSYSTEM

Geopolitical instability in the Middle East may further accelerate this opportunity as companies seek geopolitical neutrality, large domestic market anchors, and trusted partners with stable institutions. However, opportunity alone does not guarantee success; India must move quickly on several fronts:

  • Infrastructure: Continued investments in logistics corridors and ports are critical.
  • Labour-intensive sectors: Textiles and footwear need regulatory clarity and industrial parks.
  • Skill development: Training must accelerate to support advanced manufacturing technologies.

The world is undergoing a structural reconfiguration of trade and production networks. For India, this disruption is a strategic opening. If India can scale its ecosystems and deepen trade ties now, it will become a defining hub of the next globalisation cycle.

The writer is Executive Director, Pahle India Foundation. With inputs from Kuntala Karkun, Senior Visiting Fellow, Pahle India Foundation.


A severe test for monetary policy

MPC will have to resist the temptation of raising the policy rate of interest to combat the anticipated inflation, as the strict inflation targeting approach would suggest

A VASUDEVAN

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) due to meet on April 6-8 faces many economic challenges arising from endogenous and exogenous factors relating mainly to regulatory and governance matters and the humungous uncertainty created by oil price spikes, scarcities of fertilizers and a number of other commodities and minerals. Under the circumstances, decision making has to be based on a large number of considerations that go beyond inflation and growth data.

The first requirement for MPC decision making is its access to sufficiently sound quality information especially for the months of February and March. Will the MPC be guided by information only about economic variables as reported by official sources and private data providers? What is the view that the MPC will take regarding the longevity of the war in the Middle East and the current geopolitical tensions. What if the conflict drags on and becomes more widespread involving many more nations?

Whether one likes it or not, the inflation targeting framework as provided for under the provision 45Z of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Act will just not be good enough, surely not in this situation. ‘Superior” politico-economic information that the authorities possess complementing the multiple economic and financial indicators and external environment will have to be the basis for decision making.

Indian economic policy thinking has so far been woven around a magical formula which has four elements: growth rate of about 8 per cent, inflation rate of less than 4 per cent, fiscal deficit of around 3 per cent of the GDP, and an external current account deficit of 1.5-2 per cent. MPC members would often like to strategise monetary policy thinking to enable the fructification of the magical formula.

INFLATION DYNAMICS

Given this background, the MPC would still be most concerned about the inflation dynamics that arises immediately from the shortage of crude oil and natural gas and their price hikes. Inflation spreading across the economy would raise production costs, weaken investment prospects, prompt high depreciation of the Indian rupee vis-à-vis the US dollar and challenge the fiscal space to absorb the increase in social welfare and infrastructure expenditures. If the inflation rate is not within the MPC’s comfort zone, say of >4 per cent but <6 per cent, then how much would the growth rate be in 2026-27? No one can make an estimate now but it will be a surprise if it is around 6 per cent, not 7 per cent and over as many economic analysts, including the Economic Survey, have projected.

MPC will have to resist the temptation of raising the policy rate of interest to combat the anticipated inflation, as the strict inflation targeting approach would suggest. What is more important is to look at the regulatory reform that would enable financial institutions (mainly banks and NBFCs) to continue providing credit on a more extended scale so that the borrowers can have a larger buffer of commodities and services including the use of artificial intelligence (AI), if need be, to address a possible longer haul of uncertainty. Inventory build up could well be for six months rather than the conventional three months. And the use of AI would need to be focused mainly for finding ways of reducing costs and making goods competitive both domestically and abroad. This would facilitate India’s exports to more diverse destinations.

This is not to suggest that India should not follow a multiple strategy of raising the policy rate by say, 25-30 basis points and revisiting the internal liquidity requirements model once again along with undertaking regulatory reform with an exceptional (exceptional because liquidity analysis and regulatory reform are not a part of the legal frame in which inflation targeting has been cast under Section 45Z of the RBI Act) suggestion of encouragement of the MPC.

Such a strategy would be market friendly and would not disturb the yield curve, given the fact that the long rate of interest has been somewhat sticky and would not be inclined to move up in view of the limited possibility of high growth prospects.

MPC will be mindful of the limited fiscal space and the difficult external current account deficit. In view of the much talked about prevalence of recessionary conditions in much of the developed world and China, India’s export prospects are not bright. Besides, foreign remittances of Indian expatriates would either shrink or just be stable. To expect the rupee depreciation to improve export prospects is close to day-dreaming given the external trading environment and recessionary conditions prevailing overseas.

Ideally, the meeting could still be postponed to end-May or early June to enable the Committee to have more credible information about the world economic outlook and India’s own economic metrics. After all, decisions cannot be taken on some idiosyncratic assumptions in the midst of uncertainty.


The writer is a former Executive Director of the RBI and currently an independent economic analyst. (Through The Billion Press)

BLEAK SCENARIO. With rising energy prices and the looming threat of inflation amidst uncertainty, the MPC has a difficult task on its hands.


At ₹29.53 lakh cr, UPI transactions hit a record in March

Press Trust of India, New Delhi

Fuelled by festivities and financial year closure, the transaction through Unified Payments Interface (UPI) in March touched a record high of ₹29.53 lakh crore and 22.64 billion in value and volume terms, respectively, according to data released by the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI).

It said the value of transactions was at ₹29.53 lakh crore in March against ₹24.77 lakh crore in the same month a year ago, registering a 19 per cent growth on an annual basis. The transactions in value terms was ₹26.84 lakh crore in February, registering a growth of 10 per cent on a....

(Note: The article text provided in the sources concludes at this point.)


    

Rating agencies expect India Inc’s credit quality in FY27 to be stable but cautious

RISK OUTLOOK. They flagged moderation in credit ratios in H2FY26, amid rising geopolitical uncertainty

Our Bureau, Mumbai

India Inc’s credit quality outlook for fiscal 2027 is expected to be broadly stable but cautious amid geopolitical risks arising from the West Asia war, which will cloud the external environment and test corporate resilience, according to credit rating agencies.

The agencies gave the aforementioned outlook even as most of them reported that India Inc’s credit ratio moderated in the second half (H2) of FY26 against the first half (H1).

CREDIT PRESSURE

CareEdge Ratings noted that the evolving macroeconomic backdrop, marked by intensifying geopolitical tensions and shifting trade dynamics, is beginning to weigh on India Inc’s credit quality.

For Crisil Ratings, the credit ratio stood at 1.50 times in H2FY26, down from 2.17 times in H1FY26. The ratio for CareEdge Ratings and India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) stood at 1.93 times (2.56 times) and 3.1 times (3.3 times), respectively. However, ICRA recorded an improvement in the ratio at 3.2 times (2.9 times).

Referring to a stress test of 30 sectors, accounting for 65 per cent of the agency’s rated corporate debt exposed to the West Asia conflict either directly or indirectly, Subodh Rai, Managing Director, observed that Crisil Ratings’ assessment indicates that 23 of these sectors will see limited impact on credit profiles because of the conflict, despite higher input prices and disruption in gas supply.

RISK WARNING

“Clearly, strong balance sheets (median debt-to-equity ratio of 0.45 times as of March 31, 2026) lend cushion. The impact could be moderately negative for six sectors and adversely affect one,” Rai said. However, he cautioned that a prolonged conflict would be a systemic risk and could have a cascading impact on India Inc’s credit quality.

Six sectors — airlines, polyester textiles, specialty chemicals, flexible packaging manufacturers, auto component makers and diamond polishers — could see a moderately negative impact on their credit quality mainly because of the impact on operating margin, per Crisil Ratings.

WATCHFUL STANCE

Somasekhar Vemuri, Senior Director, Crisil Ratings, said, “Our credit quality outlook is stable for now, backed by resilient domestic demand and strong corporate balance sheets. But overall, we remain cautious as the duration and intensity of the West Asia conflict are uncertain. If it prolongs, slower global growth, gas availability challenges, higher-for-longer crude oil prices, and consequently, an impact on consumer sentiment will bear watching.”

K Ravichandran, Executive Vice-President and Chief Rating Officer, ICRA, observed that the escalation of hostilities in West Asia since late February has reintroduced risks, particularly for India’s energy and food security.

He cautioned, “While higher subsidies could cushion commodity price pressure, they may strain government finances. Moreover, corporates could face a moderation in demand and pressure on margins amid rising inflation.”

As per ICRA’s assessment, while higher crude prices, shipping costs and rupee depreciation would have a broad-based cost impact, the direct effect of the West Asia conflict would be more pronounced for sectors such as fertilisers, gems and jewellery, airlines, basmati rice, downstream oil and gas, ceramics and MSMEs.

Sachin Gupta, Executive Director and Chief Rating Officer, CareEdge Ratings, said that given India’s high dependence on energy imports, a prolonged conflict situation could have cascading effects — fuelling inflation, widening the current account deficit, exerting pressure on fiscal balances and weighing on growth.

In this context, CareEdge estimated that if crude oil were to average $100 per barrel in FY27, GDP growth could moderate to 6.5 per cent, while inflation may rise to 5.1-5.3 per cent.”

Gupta said, “While domestic policy measures and relatively stronger corporate balance sheets provide some cushion, the critical question is whether these domestic levers will be sufficient to keep credit quality on course if the global environment deteriorates further. For now, the answer leans towards yes — but the margin for comfort is narrowing.”

Ind-Ra said the corporate credit outlook is cautious for FY27, which is expected to see a confluence of risks spanning energy availability, input costs, inflation dynamics, fiscal balances, subdued global trade and El Niño concerns.

Arvind Rao, Senior Director, Ind-Ra, cautioned that energy-intensive segments such as fertilizers, ceramics, glass, aviation, packaging and quick service restaurants face the sharpest near-term pressure from supply disruptions and input cost spikes, while stronger sectors—namely compressed natural gas, oil marketing companies—are better positioned to absorb margin compression.

While risks are aplenty, support is expected from continued government capex, strong balance sheets, structural reforms, new trade agreements and range-bound inflation that is improving real wages, leading to a resilient GDP growth rate of 6.9 per cent (as per 2012 base) and excluding the impact of the West Asia war.


Ministry of Defence fully utilises capital outlay of ₹1.86 lakh crore for FY26

OPTIMUM USE. A significant portion of the expenditure went towards the acquisition of aircraft and ship building

Dalip Singh, New Delhi

The Ministry of Defence (MoD) on Wednesday said that it has fully utilised capital outlay of ₹1.86 lakh crore for defence services provided for the FY 2025-26 at Revised Estimates stage.

“This milestone achieved by the MoD is in continuation to the complete utilisation of the capital budget achieved during FY 2024-25 after many years,” the Ministry said.

The overall utilisation of defence budget including MoD (civil), and pension, during the FY 2025-26 stands at 99.62 per cent as per the preliminary data from the Controller General of Defence Accounts Department.

The original appropriation for capital expenditure was ₹1.80 lakh crore, which was further augmented by the Ministry of Finance in view of the pace of expenditure achieved by MoD during the first two quarters and considering the increased requirements.

“A significant portion of the expenditure went towards acquisition of aircraft and aero engines followed by land systems, electronic warfare equipment, armaments, ship building, aviation stores and projectiles,” Ministry said.

AIR MISSILE SYSTEM

These include proposals for the procurement of mid-air refueller, air defence missile system and Nag Missile system Mark-2 for Army, among others.

In addition to modernising armed forces, the effective utilisation of expenditure will also aid infrastructural development in the border areas.

In the Financial Year 2025-26, acceptance of necessity for 109 proposals amounting ₹6.81 lakh crore has been accorded by the MoD, compared to 56 proposals worth ₹1.76 lakh crore approved in FY 2024-25. Also capital procurement contracts for a total 503 proposals amounting ₹2.28 lakh crore were signed by the MoD in FY 2025-26.

With a hike of 22 per cent in the budget, the Ministry expects to sustain its modernisation drive.

Tuesday, March 31, 2026

Newspaper Summary 010426

 

IT sector faces modest Q4 despite healthy deal pipelines

Sanjana B | Bengaluru

India’s IT sector is prepared for a steady but modest Q4FY26, as analysts highlight that selective demand, weak discretionary spending, and elongated decision cycles are offsetting early AI-led opportunities and healthy deal pipelines. Mid-single-digit expansion currently reflects a steady recovery for the industry.

ANALYSTS’ TAKE

  • Tier-1 firms have indicated strong deal bookings.
  • Enterprise spending remains selective.
  • Sequential growth is likely to stay modest.
  • Early AI-led opportunities are supporting modest growth.

Harshal Dasani, Business Head at INVasset PMS, noted that while Q4 demand appears stable, it is not yet broad-based. He explained that large deal pipelines remain healthy, driven by vendor consolidation, cloud transformation, and cost optimisation, with initial traction in AI-led projects adding a new layer of opportunity.

NO BREAKOUT

Dasani characterized Q4 as a "quarter of measured execution rather than a breakout". He observed that discretionary spending is returning unevenly and decision cycles remain elongated, particularly in the retail and BFSI verticals. Consequently, sequential growth is expected to stay modest, with revenues supported by deal ramp-ups rather than fresh spending. While controlled costs and lower attrition may stabilize margins, transition costs and pricing pressure could cap the upside.

STRONG DEAL BOOKING

Tier-1 companies have reported strong deal bookings in recent quarters, indicating that underlying demand remains intact even if revenue conversion is gradual. A report from BNP Paribas highlighted that deal signings hit a five-month high of 14 in February, up from 10 in December 2025.

Tushar Badjate, Director of Badjate Stock Shares, explained that the sector closed Q4 in a moderated demand environment, especially across global markets that contribute 70% of export demand. Enterprise spending was selective, with budgets focused on AI-led efficiency initiatives, cloud migration, and maintenance, while large-scale transformation programs were often re-scoped or deferred.

Large-cap firms delivered flat to low single-digit sequential growth with margins between 18-25%, while mid-tier firms outperformed them due to niche capabilities and AI integration.

Pareekh Jain, Founder and CEO of EIIR Trend, expressed optimism that the current quarter would be stronger than the last, supported by steady BFSI demand, accelerating AI momentum, and positive results from Accenture. However, he warned of rising concerns for FY27, noting that the Gulf conflict could drive up oil prices and trigger a second-order impact that might delay AI investments and general tech spending.


Bots take charge in the poll battlefield

From generating digital posters to decoding data, AI now powers political war rooms Sindhu Hariharan | Chennai

As campaigning for the Assembly polls intensifies, the war rooms of major political parties are leaning heavily on artificial intelligence (AI) to navigate a hyper-social media world. Once a niche technology, AI is now a mainstream tool used for recreating the voices of late leaders, producing targeted content, and analyzing public sentiment.

STRATEGY AND OUTREACH

  • Strategic Tool: Digital marketer Shubho Sengupta observes that while AI was primarily a production tool for faster creatives in 2024, by 2026 it has moved to the strategy layer. It is now utilized for real-time constituency sentiment analysis and micro-targeted messaging.
  • Efficiency: PR Shiva Shankar, the BJP candidate for the Ernakulam constituency, notes that AI brings a cost and time-effective dimension to outreach while enabling more informed, data-led strategies.

HOW PARTIES ARE USING AI

  • Left Front (Kerala): To counter allegations of a supposed understanding with the NDA, the CPI(M) released an AI-generated explainer reel acting as a report card for the LDF government’s achievements over the past decade.
  • DMK (Tamil Nadu): TRB Rajaa, Secretary of the DMK IT Wing, states the party uses AI to swiftly craft digital content and interpret feedback and data more effectively. However, he maintains that human intelligence remains the primary driving force in politics.
  • BJP (Tamil Nadu): SG Suryah, President of the TN BJP Youth Wing, has a dedicated team using AI to create digital posters and video content in minutes through correct prompts. They also employ AI for booth analysis to automate workflows and generate reports on key constituencies.
  • Congress: Deepak Joy mentions that while AI is useful for highlighting opponents' shortcomings, it must be used with care. Local teams are also being provided with analysis tools to help create specific campaigns.

Unrealised tax demands rise to ₹38 lakh crore by FY25-end

Sourashis Banerjee | Chennai

Tax authorities have continued to raise tax demands in both direct and indirect taxes, resulting in strong growth in unrealised tax demands in recent years. Budget documents show that these demands amounted to more than ₹38 lakh crore toward the end of FY25.

Direct Tax Dominance

A businessline analysis of Union Budget documents shows that these demands have been significantly higher in direct taxes, where they grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26% between FY20 and FY25. In contrast, unrealised indirect tax demands grew at a slower pace of 8.7% annually over the same period.

The growth in unrealised direct tax demands has been striking:

  • Overall Increase: From ₹11 lakh crore in FY20, the figure rose to approximately ₹36 lakh crore in FY25, a three-fold increase.
  • Income Tax: Unrealised demands alone reached ₹19 lakh crore in FY25.
  • Corporate Tax: These demands stood at ₹16 lakh crore.

By comparison, unrealised indirect taxes reached ₹2.6 lakh crore in FY25, up from ₹1.7 lakh crore in FY20. This divergence suggests that the bulk of aggressive tax assessments is concentrated in direct taxes, raising concerns about structural issues in tax administration.

Litigation and Recovery Concerns

The inordinately high backlog suggests the possibility of frivolous tax demands being issued by the I-T department to meet revenue targets. With 44% of these demands under litigation, their enforceability is in question. Large demands often remain unrealised for years, suggesting overestimation at the assessment stage. This contrasts with indirect taxes, where collections are transaction-based and harder to dispute.

Recent & Undisputed Demands

A closer look reveals that more than half (56%) of unrealised direct taxes are not under dispute as of FY25. A large share of these demands is relatively recent:

  • 21% of undisputed taxes have been outstanding for 1-2 years.
  • 17% fall in the 2-5 year bracket.

Even among disputed taxes, the largest shares lie within the 1-5 year range. However, approximately 6% of undisputed taxes and 1.6% of disputed taxes have been pending for over a decade, indicating long-standing inefficiencies in resolution and recovery.


India to face pressure as US seeks plurilateral e-comm moratorium,

TRADE TIFF: New Delhi may need to align with Brazil and Turkey to safeguard policy Amiti Sen | New Delhi

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has announced that Washington will seek commitments from various countries to pursue a plurilateral e-commerce duties moratorium agreement. This move follows the actions of Brazil and Turkey, who "blocked" the extension of the existing moratorium at the WTO Ministerial Conference in Yaoundé, a development that is expected to place fresh pressure on India.

Experts suggest that New Delhi, which has long questioned the moratorium due to rising revenue losses and a lack of clear definitions, may need to align with Brazil and Turkey to safeguard its policy space and preserve its negotiating leverage. Greer expressed frustration that the WTO could not reach a consensus to make the moratorium permanent or even extend it for more than two years, specifically naming Brazil and Turkey as the two nations that blocked an extension until December 31, 2030.

WHAT IS IT?

The WTO e-commerce moratorium was first established in 1998 as a temporary, two-year agreement to not impose customs duties on electronic transmissions. Under this pact, while physical goods are taxed at the border, digital equivalents—such as software, e-books, and streaming services—remain duty-free. While it had been renewed every two years since its inception, the moratorium lapsed at the conclusion of WTO MC14 due to disagreements over its duration. Despite this, the USTR asserted that the US has secured commitments from dozens of countries and nearly all major trading partners to refrain from imposing tariffs on US digital transmissions.

‘COMMON SENSE AIM’

Greer stated that if the WTO cannot achieve this "common sense aim," the US will work outside of the WTO with all interested partners, inviting them to commit to a plurilateral agreement,. Unlike a multilateral deal, a plurilateral agreement involves only a subset of countries rather than the full WTO membership.

Parminder Jeet Singh, a founding member of the Just Net Coalition, described the end of the moratorium as a "historic moment". He noted that it marks an opportunity for developing nations to view their digital economies through the lens of digital industrial policies, proper regulation of foreign firms, and the collection of due taxes, as most value flows across borders will soon be digital.

Ranja Sengupta, Senior Researcher at Third World Network, India, argued that India should support Brazil and Turkey for standing up for the Global South, which has been losing billions in potential revenue. While she expressed skepticism about how a plurilateral agreement would function for those who stay out, she warned that there would be significant US pressure on developing countries to join if such an agreement moves forward.


What happens when CAD rises

Saumitra Bhaduri & Shubham Anand | Madras School of Economics, Chennai

The escalation of conflict in the Middle East has pushed global oil prices higher, exposing a familiar fault line in India’s external position. Despite robust domestic growth and contained inflation, the rupee has slipped to record lows and equity markets have turned volatile. This is a "flow story" overwhelming a "stock story": war-driven energy shocks and a stronger dollar have collided with thinner, more flighty capital inflows.

THE DISCONNECT

On paper, India’s macro story is reassuring: growth is projected at 7.4 per cent this fiscal, reserves are near $701.4 billion, and the current account deficit (CAD) is about 0.8 per cent of GDP. Yet the rupee fell by more than 5 per cent last year.

Ordinarily, a modest CAD is easily financed, but in 2025 foreign portfolio investors pulled back and net FDI softened as profit repatriation and outbound investment rose. With less "patient capital," the rupee became more sensitive to shifts in risk appetite; as oil buyers needed more dollars just as investors sought safety, the currency took a hit from both sides.

RUPEE DYNAMICS

Purchasing power parity (PPP) indicates where the currency tends to settle once shocks fade. Our pre-shock estimate placed the rupee roughly 18 per cent below PPP fair value. However, India’s adjustment towards PPP is slow, with a half-life of more than five years. In one year, only 13 per cent of the adjustment towards equilibrium is typically completed. This path is too slow and bumpy to offset a sudden oil-and-dollar shock.

THE TRANSMISSION

Because India imports most of its crude, pricier oil raises the import bill before quantities can adjust, widening the CAD. Multi-country evidence suggests that for oil importers, a 1 per cent real oil price shock can worsen the current account balance (CAB) by up to 0.08 percentage points (pp) of GDP over five years. For India, a sustained 10 per cent real increase in oil could translate into roughly a 0.8pp deterioration in the CAB over five years.

PATH FORWARD

Durable currency strength requires more than growth; it requires resilience in flow dynamics during stress.

  • Near-term: Calibrated fuel-tax adjustments to smooth pass-through, deploying FX reserves to counter disorderly moves, and diversified sourcing.
  • Medium-term: Attracting "stickier" capital, especially greenfield FDI, by maintaining a predictable policy regime and reducing policy uncertainty.
  • Long-term: Raising export complexity and scale in manufacturing while accelerating energy security through strategic reserves and the renewables transition.

By turning recurring oil-and-flows vulnerabilities into managed risks, India can safeguard its currency through well-calibrated policy responses.


For a permanent ‘stabilisation fund’

S Adikesavan

The creation of an Economic Stabilisation Fund by the Finance Ministry represents a move toward establishing institutional mechanisms to respond to economic shocks. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman noted that in an era of global uncertainty, India must equip itself with dedicated institutional buffers to ensure unforeseen disruptions do not derail the country's growth trajectory.

DEALING WITH CRISES

While many advanced economies have established Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs), these are typically intended for long-term asset management rather than the short-term macroeconomic stabilization envisioned for this new fund. Historically, governments have relied on expansionary fiscal policies, such as during the 2008 financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic, to cushion downturns.

In India, deficit financing during these periods was largely achieved through domestic currency borrowing, which insulated the economy from exchange rate risks. During the pandemic, fiscal deficits rose to over 9 per cent of GDP without destabilizing the economy, eventually tapering to about 4.5 per cent, suggesting that higher deficits can be managed under certain conditions.

FIVE STEPS FOR IMPLEMENTATION

To ensure the Fund is reliable, flexible, and transparent, the article proposes five foundational steps:

  1. Legislative Framework: The Fund should be established with a statutory basis through Parliament, similar to the Monetary Policy Committee. While maintaining a clear structure, the government should have the authority to deploy funds swiftly in emergencies without prior approval.
  2. Regular Annual Allocations: The corpus should be supported by annual allocations from the Union Budget. A target of ₹5 lakh crore (roughly 1.5 per cent of GDP) would signal a serious policy commitment.
  3. State Participation: States should be encouraged to contribute in exchange for "drawing rights" during times of need. This mechanism could include special provisions for strategically vulnerable regions like the North-East, Jammu & Kashmir, and Ladakh.
  4. Independent Governance: To insulate the Fund from political considerations, it should be managed by an independent board of trustees consisting of domain experts. Transparency should be maintained through annual reports tabled in Parliament.
  5. State-Specific Contingencies: Complementary mechanisms should allow States to levy temporary, purpose-specific cesses through GST amendments to address local crises, using Kerala’s 2018 flood cess as a template.

As global uncertainties become the norm, building such institutional resilience is no longer optional but imperative for economic stability.


BJP promises ₹5 lakh cr investment for Assam

Guwahati: Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman released the BJP’s manifesto for the Assam Assembly polls on Tuesday, promising the protection of land, heritage, and dignity for indigenous people alongside a ₹5 lakh crore infrastructure investment.

SANKALP PATRA HIGHLIGHTS

The BJP’s Sankalp Patra comprises 31 promises, including:

  • The recovery of encroached land from Bangladeshi Miyas.
  • The implementation of a Uniform Civil Code.
  • Ensuring the development of the State and providing employment opportunities for the youth.

Sitharaman stated that the manifesto was prepared based on a "decade of transformation" in the State, which she alleged the Congress failed to achieve in 60 years. She further claimed that peace has been "restored in Assam" under BJP rule and emphasized that development is only possible with such stability.

AFSPA AND REGIONAL GROWTH

The Finance Minister noted that while Assam lived under AFSPA for 32 years due to Congress policies, the BJP has ensured the law was removed from most States. She also highlighted a shift in migration patterns, claiming that many young Assamese are now leaving global careers to return to Assam because of the opportunities currently available in the State.


‘Vijay’s solo entry may split anti-DMK vote, favour DMK alliance’

T E Raja Simhan | Chennai

The entry of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) founder C Joseph Vijay into the electoral fray has added a new dimension to the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections 2026, according to Thol Thirumavalavan, Founder of the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK). Thirumavalavan noted that Vijay’s prominence and significant media coverage have made him a central figure in the current political discourse.

STRATEGIC IMPACT

Thirumavalavan observed that Vijay has successfully turned the electoral arena into a focal point of public attention. He argued that had Vijay aligned with an anti-DMK coalition, it could have posed a serious challenge to the DMK-led alliance. However, by contesting independently, Vijay is likely to draw a share of anti-DMK votes that might otherwise have consolidated behind the AIADMK-BJP combine. This fragmentation of the opposition vote could, in effect, work to the advantage of the DMK alliance.

While Vijay has asserted that the contest is solely between the DMK and the TVK, Thirumavalavan noted that both the AIADMK and the BJP do not regard Vijay as a significant factor and remain focused on their objective of defeating the DMK.

VCK’S ASSEMBLY BID

Thirumavalavan has decided to contest the Assembly elections himself, despite currently being a Lok Sabha member. He explained that the Legislative Assembly is the "primary arena of Tamil Nadu’s political landscape," whereas the scope to exert tangible influence in Delhi is limited to debates. He believes that, as of now, the DMK alliance stands as a strong coalition with significant public support and that there is little possibility of a hung Assembly.

RESERVATIONS ON WELFARE MEASURES

Answering a question on the proliferation of welfare measures, the VCK leader expressed reservations about "freebie politics". He stated his firm conviction that, with the sole exception of education, nothing else should be provided free of cost. He criticized the current situation, noting that education is not being provided for free, nor is it receiving adequate financial support, while both the DMK and AIADMK engage in the "indiscriminate distribution of goods and services under the guise of welfare".


Unilever food arm to join McCormick in $45 b deal

Bloomberg

Unilever has agreed to combine its food business with spice maker McCormick in a $44.8 billion deal that will create a global seasonings, sauces, and condiments company. Under the agreement, McCormick will pay the Anglo-Dutch company $15.7 billion and provide the equivalent of $29.1 billion in McCormick shares for the majority of Unilever’s food business. This arrangement will leave Unilever and its shareholders with 65 per cent of the combined entity, including McCormick brands such as French’s mustard.

BIGGEST DEAL

The deal is the largest in the histories of both companies and will help recast Unilever as a global leader in beauty, personal, and home care. Simultaneously, it will turn McCormick into a more significant competitor in the global packaged food business. The transaction will be carried out through a Reverse Morris Trust, a type of merger designed to be tax-free.

The transaction represents a highly ambitious move by McCormick, a company best known for its red and white spice containers. Notably, McCormick is a much smaller company, with its entire business generating only half the sales of Unilever’s food arm.


Pricey memory chips hit smartphone sales in 2026

Vallari Sanzgiri | Mumbai

Smartphone sales in India declined nine per cent year-on-year due to a combination of rising memory component costs and seasonal softness, according to data from Counterpoint Research’s India Weekly Smartphone Sell-out Tracker.

PRICE HIKES AND MARKET IMPACT

By the ninth week of 2026, more than eight brands had already implemented price increases, with an average hike of ₹1,500. Despite the resulting impact on consumer footfalls and overall sales, these hikes are expected to continue rising, and new product launches are being introduced at higher price points.

While Republic Day sales provided a temporary boost primarily for online channels, sustained premiumisation helped maintain value growth for the sector. Prachir Singh, Senior Research Analyst at Counterpoint Research, noted that the market started the year on a low note as "persistent price increases continued to weigh on consumer demand," further exacerbated by limited promotional intensity and fewer new launches.

BRAND PERFORMANCE

Despite the broader market slump, some brands saw growth:

  • Vivo: Recorded the strongest annual sales growth at 19 per cent in the first nine weeks of 2026, driven by new launches and the performance of its Y and T series.
  • Apple: Grew 12 per cent, supported by discounts and sustained demand for the iPhone 17 series.

OUTLOOK FOR 2026

The market faces a challenging year ahead. Tarun Pathak, Research Director at Counterpoint Research, projected that India’s smartphone market could decline by around 10 per cent in 2026. He attributed this to ongoing global uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and rising prices for essential commodities, all of which weigh on discretionary spending. While the premium segment is expected to remain resilient, affordability constraints will continue to hinder demand in the mass segment, resulting in a gradual and uneven recovery.