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Saturday, July 18, 2026

The Greater Bengaluru Governance Bill, 2024 Legislative Brief

 PRS LEGISLATIVE RESEARCH STATE LEGISLATIVE BRIEF: KARNATAKA The Greater Bengaluru Governance Bill, 2024

Authors: Prachee Mishra (prachee@prsindia.org), Shrusti Singh (shrusti@prsindia.org) Date: April 25, 2025


Overview

The Greater Bengaluru Governance Bill, 2024 was introduced in the Karnataka Legislative Assembly on July 23, 2024. It replaces the existing Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike (BBMP) Act, 2020. The Bill was referred to a Joint Select Committee, and the version recommended by the Committee was passed on March 10, 2025. However, the Governor has since returned the Bill to the legislature for reconsideration.

Key Features Summary

  • Greater Bengaluru Authority (GBA): An apex body chaired by the Chief Minister will be established, assisted by an Executive Committee.
  • Structure: The region will be divided into multiple city corporations (up to seven), with their functions coordinated by the GBA.
  • Wards: Each corporation may have up to 150 wards.

Key Issues and Analysis Summary

  • The Chief Minister chairing the GBA and the Metropolitan Planning Committee may violate principles of the 74th Amendment.
  • The Bill grants executive and administrative powers to legislators at the local level.
  • There is an overlap between the powers of city corporations and existing statutory authorities.

PART A: HIGHLIGHTS OF THE BILL

Context

The BBMP was established in 2008 under the Karnataka Municipal Corporation (KMC) Act, 1976, which initially utilized a three-tier system of governance. In 2020, the BBMP Act replaced these provisions, adding a fourth tier of zonal committees. The 2024 Bill seeks to restructure this into a three-tier framework consisting of the GBA, city corporations, and ward committees.

Administrative Structure

The proposed structure moves away from a single corporation to multiple city corporations under the GBA.

  • Greater Bengaluru Authority (GBA): Chaired by the Chief Minister, with the Chief Commissioner as member secretary.
  • City Corporations (up to 7): Each led by an elected Mayor and an appointed Commissioner.
  • Ward Committees: Led by an elected Councillor.

The Bill for reconsideration removes the zonal committees and area sabhas found in previous versions.

Greater Bengaluru Authority (GBA)

The GBA is the apex body responsible for coordinating and supervising city corporations and overall regional development. Its voting members include the Minister of Bengaluru Development, state ministers from the area, all local MPs and MLAs, Mayors, the Commissioner of Police, and various agency heads. It serves as the Planning Authority, creating master plans and executing projects that span multiple corporations. An Executive Committee, chaired by the Minister of Bengaluru Development, handles day-to-day functions.

Metropolitan Planning Committee (MPC)

The state will constitute the Bengaluru MPC to develop a draft development plan for the Greater Bengaluru Area. Like the GBA, it will be chaired by the Chief Minister.

City Corporations

Up to seven corporations can be formed. Eligibility for a corporation area includes a population over 10 lakh, density exceeding 5,000 inhabitants per sq km, and local revenue over Rs 300 crore. Members include elected councillors, local MPs and MLAs, and nominated experts (without voting rights). Corporations have a five-year term, though the state may dissolve them under specific circumstances.

Authorities and Wards

  • Mayor/Deputy Mayor: Elected for 30-month terms; they preside over meetings and have inspection powers.
  • Commissioner: Appointed for two years as the Chief Executive Officer.
  • Wards: Each corporation can have up to 150 wards. Ward committees, chaired by a councillor, are responsible for development schemes, tax collection, and maintenance of civic services like waste and water.
  • Zones: The government will notify zones within corporations, each with an appointed Joint Commissioner responsible for administration and coordinating with ward committees.

Finance and Taxation

Corporations can levy property taxes, advertisement fees, and various cesses. Property tax rates are determined by the government in consultation with the GBA. If a corporation cannot meet its mandatory functions, the state provides grants. Fiscal tools include a three-year medium-term fiscal plan, a Comprehensive Debt Limitation Policy, and a Sinking Fund for loan repayments.

Other Functions

Corporations manage public streets, building bye-laws, public health, disaster management, and urban heritage conservation.


PART B: KEY ISSUES AND ANALYSIS

Devolution of Powers and the 74th Amendment

The Constitution (74th Amendment) Act, 1992, emphasizes establishing urban local bodies (ULBs) as institutions of self-government. Critics argue the Bill centralizes power instead of devolving it.

  • Chief Minister’s Role: By heading both the apex municipal body and the MPC, the Chief Minister gives the state government a direct role in municipal governance, potentially undermining decentralization.
  • Public Authorities: The Bill does not alter the independent status of authorities like the Bangalore Development Authority, which may create overlaps and weaken the accountability of elected city corporations.
  • Dissolution Power: The state’s power to dissolve a directly elected city corporation if it fails to follow directions is viewed as a significant centralizing measure.
  • Required Approvals: Corporations must seek GBA or government approval for basic actions like selling property or entering contracts, which may defeat the purpose of local empowerment.

Fiscal Autonomy and Participation

Unlike other states where municipal corporations set property tax rates, this Bill gives that power to the state government and GBA, potentially constraining fiscal autonomy. Furthermore, the removal of "Area Sabhas" (which included all registered voters) may limit community participation compared to the 2020 Act.

Legislators and Executives

The Bill involves MLAs in administrative roles via constituency-level coordination committees, raising questions about the separation of powers. Additionally, executive power remains vested in appointed Commissioners rather than the elected Mayor, a practice criticized by various reform commissions as diluting democratic legitimacy.

Election Offenses

The Bill imposes significantly higher fines for election-linked offenses compared to national or other municipal laws. For example, canvassing near a polling station carries a maximum fine of one lakh rupees under the Bill, compared to Rs 250 in other major cities.


Comparison of the GBG Bill (Introduced vs. Passed)

ProvisionBill Introduced (July 2024)Bill Passed (March 2025)
Number of CorporationsUp to 10Up to 7
Metropolitan Planning CommitteeNo MPC providedProvision for GBA as Planning Authority and Bengaluru MPC
Financial OversightGBA to review fiscal plans and allocate fundsGBA's role in fiscal plan review and fund allocation removed; focuses on tax consultation
Area SabhasIncluded for local participationRemoved
Security ForceGreater Bengaluru Security Force providedProvision removed

Conclusion: Zones and Joint Commissioner

The Bill establishes a three-tier system but also requires the government to notify zones with appointed Joint Commissioners. It remains unclear how these zones will integrated into the broader structure of GBA, city corporations, and ward committees.

Economic Pulse Jun2026

     The June 2026 edition of the India Economic Pulse highlights a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape centered on the easing of tensions in West Asia, which has profound implications for India's economic indicators.

The US-Iran MoU: A Strategic Turning Point

The signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran is identified as a pivotal event. This agreement serves as a first step toward de-escalating regional conflict and includes critical commitments to:

  • Reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global shipping route.
  • Lift oil sanctions, which is expected to normalize global energy supplies.

Prior to this MoU, the conflict had severely impacted the Indian economy, pushing India’s crude oil basket from US$70 per barrel to a peak exceeding US$140 per barrel in March 2026 and driving WPI inflation to 9.7% in May 2026.

Immediate Economic Relief and Market Reaction

The de-escalation of geopolitical tensions has provided "vital near-term relief" across several sectors:

  • Energy Prices: Following the MoU, India’s crude oil basket fell to US$78 per barrel, its lowest level since the conflict began.
  • Financial Markets: The 10-year G-sec bond yields dropped by 26 basis points from their May 2026 peak, and the Rupee showed signs of stabilization after a period of high volatility.
  • Inflation Outlook: The prospective reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and softening crude prices are expected to meaningfully ease fuel-led inflationary pressures in the coming months.

Global Context and Ongoing Fragility

The sources emphasize that the West Asia conflict was a global phenomenon, reinforcing the US dollar's status as a "haven" and causing lower growth expectations, higher inflation, and hardening bond yields across all major economies. For instance, stock markets declined by over 10% between February and June 2026 in response to the conflict.

Despite the positive developments of the US-Iran truce, the report warns that the "geopolitical architecture remains fragile". The durability of the agreement is yet to be fully tested, and the complete normalization of global supply chains and shipping routes will take time. Consequently, "continuous macro-economic and geopolitical vigilance" is considered paramount for India to navigate future risks, including potential currency volatility and supply chain disruptions.


The June 2026 India Economic Pulse indicates that while India’s macroeconomic growth remains resilient, it is entering a phase of moderation alongside continued expansion following a period of geopolitical volatility.

GDP and GVA Growth Performance

  • Real GDP Growth: The Indian economy grew by 7.7% in FY26. For the final quarter of that year (Q4FY26), the economy recorded a growth of 7.8%, a slight decline from the 8% seen in the preceding quarter but an improvement over the 7% growth in Q4FY25.
  • Projections for FY27: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected GDP growth to moderate to 6.6% for FY27. Most other economic agencies maintain a projection of over 6%. This moderation is considered favorable when compared to past major shocks, such as the 4.5% drop in 1991 or the 2.6% reduction during the 2009 global financial crisis.
  • Real vs. Nominal Divergence: With rising inflation, the sources note that the growth rates of real and nominal GDP have started to diverge.

Key Demand Drivers

The growth story in FY26 was primarily anchored by domestic demand rather than external factors:

  • Private Consumption: Real GDP growth was led by Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE), which grew by 7.7% in FY26.
  • Investment: Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), a measure of investment, grew by 8.2% in FY26. Private capital has been the primary driver here, as government capex growth was subdued at 1.6% for the same period.
  • Net Exports: The contribution of net exports to overall growth was near zero, reinforcing that domestic drivers are the backbone of the current economic pulse.

Sectoral GVA Contributions

  • Manufacturing: This sector was a major contributor, with GVA growing at 10.7% in FY26. However, in Q4FY26, manufacturing growth slowed to a single-digit rate.
  • Services (Tertiary Sector): The services sector boosted performance with a growth rate exceeding 9% in FY26. Specifically, trade, hotels, and transport services attained 10.1% growth during the year.
  • Industrial Production (IIP): The general IIP growth rose to 4.9% in April 2026, led by manufacturing and buoyant capital goods, which expanded by double digits for six consecutive months.

Fiscal and Monetary Metrics

  • Fiscal Deficit: The union government met its FY26 fiscal deficit target of 4.4% of GDP, achieved largely through expense control and a significant RBI surplus transfer of INR 2.86 lakh crore.
  • Tax Collections: Gross GST collections for the first two months of FY27 fell marginally by 0.2%, partly due to year-end financial reconciliations in April and the phasing out of cess.
  • Monetary Policy: The RBI has held the repo rate at 5.25%, adopting a cautious approach to manage inflation projections of 5.1% for FY27.

Emerging Risks

Despite the strong long-term growth thesis, several downside risks are identified for FY27, including currency volatility, supply chain disruptions, and the potential impact of El NiƱo on the agricultural sector. Additionally, the non-oil merchandise trade deficit grew by 32% in FY26, reaching US$213 billion, highlighting a need to build domestic capacity for strategic products.


The June 2026 edition of the India Economic Pulse describes a strong and resilient consumption story that serves as a primary anchor for the nation's growth, even amidst significant geopolitical volatility.

The Primary Driver of GDP

Domestic demand, rather than external factors, is identified as the backbone of India's economic performance.

  • Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE): This metric led the demand-side growth in FY26, expanding by 7.7% for the full year.
  • Quarterly Performance: In the final quarter of the year (Q4FY26), private consumption grew at 7.1%, contributing to a real GDP growth of 7.8% for that period.

Urban Demand Pulse

Urban consumption remained firm through the West Asia conflict, characterized by high-value purchases and strong credit appetite:

  • Automobiles: Passenger vehicle registrations experienced a significant surge of 24% during the April-May 2026 period. For the full FY26, registrations grew by 14.3%, reflecting the positive impact of GST 2.0 reforms on demand.
  • Credit Growth: Personal credit grew by 16% year-on-year. Lending was particularly sustained in the housing and vehicle loan segments. Conversely, banks saw a sharp degrowth in credit card loans as they focused on limiting delinquencies.

Rural Demand Pulse

Rural demand has shown surprising strength and a limited impact from ongoing geopolitical uncertainty:

  • Employment Indicators: Work demand under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) contracted by 31.1% in the first two months of FY27 (April-May 2026). This decline is viewed as a positive signal of improving rural employment conditions.
  • Agricultural Investment: Tractor registrations grew by 21.8% in FY27 (April-May), and two-wheeler registrations—a key indicator of rural health—registered a healthy growth of 14.4% during the same period.
  • Financial Support: The flow of bank credit to agriculture and allied activities has continued to accelerate.

Sectoral Consumption Trends

  • Services Consumption: The services sector, particularly trade, hotels, and transport services, attained a robust growth rate of 10.1% in FY26. However, air passenger traffic contracted in April 2026 as the West Asia crisis disrupted commercial flight operations.
  • Digital and Formalization: Total digital retail payments remained buoyant, driven largely by UPI, which the sources note reflects the continued formalization of the Indian economy.
  • Industrial Output for Consumers: The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for both consumer durables (4.3%) and non-durables picked up in April 2026.

Energy Consumption Contraction

In contrast to broader demand resilience, the consumption of energy products was negatively impacted by the onset of the West Asia conflict:

  • Petroleum and Gas: Consumption of petroleum products contracted by 4.5% in April 2026 compared to the previous year, driven largely by a 13% decline in LPG consumption. Natural gas consumption also saw a decline in volume following the start of the conflict.

Overall, the sources conclude that while the geopolitical architecture remains fragile, India's long-term growth thesis remains intact because it is firmly anchored by domestic demand.


The June 2026 India Economic Pulse indicates that inflation and monetary policy have been heavily influenced by the West Asia conflict, though the recent US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) has begun to shift the outlook toward moderation.

Inflationary Pressures: WPI vs. CPI

The West Asia crisis created a significant surge in wholesale costs that is only now beginning to show signs of relief:

  • WPI Inflation Surge: Driven by a 54% surge in India’s crude oil basket between February and May 2026, Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation rose sharply from 2.2% in February to 9.7% in May 2026. This was further exacerbated by a broad-based rise in energy-related inputs and supply chain disruptions.
  • Contained CPI: Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation remained relatively stable, edging up to 3.9% in May 2026. The sources attribute this containment to the government absorbing part of the fuel price shock rather than passing it fully to consumers.
  • Future Outlook: The RBI projects CPI inflation at 5.1% for FY27, with a gradual easing expected by the final quarter of that year. The prospective reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and softening crude prices (which fell to US$78 per barrel post-MoU) are expected to "meaningfully ease" these pressures.

Monetary Policy Stance

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adopted a cautious and vigilant approach to navigate these geopolitical headwinds:

  • Repo Rate Stability: The RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to hold the policy repo rate at 5.25% during its June 2026 meeting.
  • Preventing "Second-Order" Risks: The RBI has explicitly stated its intent to act against risks such as wage spirals or a buildup of inflation expectations that could arise from prolonged high input costs.
  • Currency and Liquidity Management: To stabilize the Rupee, which depreciated roughly 4.5% against the US dollar between February and June 2026, the RBI used US$44 billion of its foreign exchange reserves. Additionally, the RBI introduced measures such as bearing hedging costs on Foreign Currency Non-Resident (FCNR) deposits and offering concessional forex swaps to drive inflows.

Market Metrics and Yields

  • Bond Yields: Reflecting the easing of geopolitical tensions, 10-year G-sec yields fell by 26 basis points from their peak in May 2026. However, overall bond yields in India increased by over 30 basis points between February and June 2026 during the height of the conflict.
  • Yield Curve: Despite the volatility, the sovereign yield curve has showed signs of easing recently, which the sources attribute to high liquidity within the economy.

The report concludes that while the US-Iran truce provides vital near-term relief for inflation, "continuous macro-economic and geopolitical vigilance" remains paramount as the global supply chain normalization will take time to fully play out.


Industrial and sectoral indicators in the June 2026 India Economic Pulse reflect an economy characterized by moderation alongside resilient growth, with domestic demand serving as a critical buffer against the volatility of the West Asia conflict.

Manufacturing and Industrial Production (IIP)

The manufacturing sector has been a primary driver of India’s economic performance, though it showed signs of slowing toward the end of the fiscal year:

  • GVA Growth: Manufacturing Gross Value Added (GVA) grew at a healthy 10.7% for the full FY26, though growth moderated to a single-digit rate in Q4FY26.
  • IIP Performance: The general Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth rose to 4.9% in April 2026, up from 3.2% in March. This expansion was led by manufacturing and particularly buoyant performance in capital goods, which expanded by double digits for six consecutive months.
  • Sectoral IIP: Infrastructure and construction goods recorded a healthy growth of 7.1% in April 2026, while consumer durables (4.3%) and non-durables also saw a pickup in activity during the same month.
  • Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI): India's manufacturing PMI stood at 55.0 in May 2026, indicating continued expansion, though it was slightly lower than the 56.9 recorded in February.

Services Sector (The Tertiary Engine)

The services sector remains a robust engine for the Indian economy, although specific segments were disrupted by geopolitical tensions:

  • GVA and Exports: The tertiary sector registered a growth rate exceeding 9% in FY26, with trade, hotels, and transport services alone attaining 10.1% growth. Services exports reached a surplus of US$214 billion for the year.
  • Digitalization: Total digital retail payments remained buoyant, driven by UPI, reflecting the continued formalization of the economy.
  • Aviation Disruption: While air freight growth hit an 11-month high in April 2026, air passenger traffic contracted as the West Asia crisis impacted commercial flight operations.
  • PMI: The services PMI remained strong at 59.8 in May 2026, an increase from February's 58.1.

Automobiles and Infrastructure

Both urban and rural demand metrics remained resilient through the peak of the West Asia conflict:

  • Vehicle Registrations: Passenger vehicle registrations grew by 14.3% in FY26 and surged by 24.2% in the April-May 2026 period, aided by GST 2.0 reforms. Commercial vehicle registrations also grew by 15.9% in the same two-month period.
  • Construction Materials: Driven by sustained infrastructure and housing investments, cement production grew 9.4% and crude steel production grew 6.2% in April 2026.
  • Logistics: E-way bill generation (11.8% in April 2026) and container traffic (14.4% in April-May 2026) maintained strong pre-conflict momentum.

Energy and Agriculture

  • Energy Consumption: In a notable divergence from other sectors, consumption of petroleum products contracted by 4.5% in April 2026, and natural gas volumes also declined following the onset of the conflict.
  • Power and Renewables: Average daily power consumption rose by 6.8% in April-May 2026 due to peak summer loads. Renewable energy generation continued its healthy growth, rising 17.2% in FY26.
  • Rural Resilience: The agricultural sector showed limited impact from the conflict, with tractor registrations up 21.8% and two-wheeler registrations growing 14.4% in the first two months of FY27.

Despite these positive indicators, the report concludes that a "non-oil merchandise trade deficit" of US$213 billion in FY26 highlights a strategic need to build domestic capacity for products like electronics, where India remains heavily import-dependent.


According to the sources, India's fiscal and external health during the June 2026 period reflects a balance between meeting immediate targets and managing structural vulnerabilities exacerbated by geopolitical tensions.

Fiscal Health: Discipline Amidst Pressure

The union government successfully met its fiscal deficit target of 4.4% of GDP for FY26. This achievement was supported by two primary factors:

  • Expense Control: Government capital expenditure (capex) growth was significantly curbed, growing only 1.6% against a budgeted increase of 11%.
  • RBI Surplus: A substantial surplus transfer of INR 2.86 lakh crore from the RBI provided a vital revenue cushion.

However, the sources warn that maintaining this fiscal discipline in FY27 will be challenging due to excise duty cuts on fuel, increased energy and food subsidies, and rising yields on government securities. While states' revenue expenditure growth slowed to 8.4%, their aggregate fiscal deficit grew by 20% in FY26, largely driven by higher capital spending in states like Haryana and Telangana.

External Health: Structural Vulnerabilities and Resilience

India’s external sector has been heavily impacted by the West Asia conflict, showing signs of both stress and strategic resilience:

  • Current Account Performance: The current account posted a surplus of 0.7% of GDP in Q4FY26, primarily due to a surge in remittances and lower petroleum imports caused by supply disruptions. For the full FY26, the current account balance stood at -0.6% of GDP.
  • Trade Deficit Concerns: A significant structural issue is the non-oil merchandise trade deficit, which grew by 32% to reach US$213 billion in FY26. This is attributed to a high dependence on imports from China and Hong Kong, particularly for electronics and electrical equipment.
  • Services Export Engine: In contrast, the services trade surplus continued to grow, increasing by 13% in FY26 to reach US$214 billion, even amidst concerns regarding the impact of AI.

Currency and Capital Flows

The Indian Rupee faced depreciation pressure, falling roughly 11% since January 2025. The sources highlight several factors contributing to this weakness:

  • Persistent FPI Outflows: Foreign Portfolio Investors remained net sellers, partly due to the absence of an "AI premium" in Indian markets compared to the global AI-driven equity rally.
  • Foreign Exchange Reserves: To curb volatility and arrest the Rupee's slide, India utilized its reserves, which shrunk by US$44 billion from their peak in February 2026. As of late May 2026, reserves stood at US$681.4 billion.
  • FDI Trends: While Gross FDI hit an all-time high of US$94 billion in FY26, Net FDI remained low due to high capital repatriation and continued outflows.

In summary, while India has successfully navigated immediate fiscal targets, its external health remains sensitive to global energy prices and capital flow volatility, requiring "continuous macro-economic and geopolitical vigilance" to ensure long-term stability.



Newspaper Summary 190726

 Based on the source provided, here is the full text of the article titled "The valuation U-turn bank investors missed" found on page 1 of the July 19, 2026, edition of The Hindu Businessline Portfolio:


The valuation U-turn bank investors missed

Large banks in low-growth developed economies trumped leaders in high-growth Indian economy

By Nishanth Gopakrishnan, bl. research bureau

India, as the fastest growing major economy, has had the weakest performing large private banks. Large private lenders — HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Axis Bank — have not only lost the race to PSU peers in terms of shareholding returns, but also to their global peers. These three banks have even trailed in a comparison of returns delivered by some of the world's largest lenders since December 31, 2019 (the pre-pandemic cut-off). In contrast, the Sensex has gained over 80 per cent over the same period.

The reason for this lacklustre returns appear to stem more from a valuation de-rating than in divergence in fundamentals. Among the banks compared, only the Indian lenders have seen valuation de-rating since December 2019. ICICI Bank’s 168 per cent core price appreciation, leading under a marginal de-rating for the bank trendline compared to Mahindra Bank’s valuation multiples have fallen by 40 per cent and HDFC has fallen by 25 per cent.

The analysis underscores the importance of entry multiples even if the underlying business continues to perform well.

WHAT GIVES

Before the pandemic, the said banks were showing mid-teens to 20 per cent loan growth which was much higher than the single-digit growth rates of global banks (readers should see this in the context of growth rates of their underlying advanced economies). Their stocks as such commanded premiums by investors.

On top of these, low global interest rates and high free float made the stocks favorites among FPIs in the pre-Covid era. Given India's expanding financial services market, investors expected these banks to sustain both strong growth and high return on equity (RoE) — a critical metric in bank valuation. December 2019 valuations reflected these expectations.

However, while the pandemic, despite solid loan growth, HDFC and Kotak were hit on the RoE front. HDFC’s earnings have grown at a CAGR of 19 per cent in five years (including profits from the merger), while Kotak’s earnings growth rate has fallen from 20 per cent to 14 per cent. Axis Bank's profits have improved to a CAGR of 56 per cent in FY20-24 from -22 per cent in FY17-20 but these profits have occurred in recent years have weighted on its valuation. ICICI Bank, on the other hand, has reported earnings CAGR at 34 per cent (FY20-24) relative to peers while reporting superior earnings per cent.

Their high free float has now become a headwind. With global interest rates on the rise and AI trade heating up, FPIs have offloaded a chunk of their stake. FII holding in HDFC, ICICI, Axis and Kotak have come off peaks of 52, 60, 52 and 45 per cent to 47, 53, 43 and 25 per cent now.

ENTRY PRICE

The picture is markedly different among largest banks in each of the advanced markets (the Americas, the British, European and Japanese banks considered for this analysis). Low entry valuations, combined with improving RoE, have translated into superior stock returns. Excluding JPMorgan Chase, each of these banks was at a multiple of the foreign banks stood at just 0.8x as of December 2019, reflecting investor pessimism.

Post-pandemic, however, growth has improved across the board. JPMorgan Chase, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, UBS Group and MUFG have all reported stronger growth in loans, earnings and RoE value, leading to higher RoE. The two Japanese banks and HSBC have reported record earnings, benefiting from both the lowest starting valuations and the sharpest reratings.

Other banks have also improved across one or more key metrics. Santander's loan growth remained muted, but its earnings CAGR rose from about 2 per cent in CY16-19 to 13 per cent in CY19-23. BNP Paribas' earnings CAGR improved from 2 per cent to 7 per cent.

Bottomline, the market has rewarded shareholders of those banks with multiple expansion where fundamentals have changed for the better. This trend is the reverse of the improvement, when fundamentals remain strong but valuations — a testament to the potential of value investing. Conversely, even tough in higher entry multiples, even if the fundamentals remained status quo, a miss of a few percentage points in RoE, has left investors with not so desirable returns — the case with the said Indian banks. Nevertheless, given the valuation fruit has been flushed out, it should be interesting to watch the trajectory of their stocks going forward.


Low entry multiples and RoE improvement explain healthy gains

BankReturns since Dec 31, 2019 (%)P/B on current core (x)P/B in FY20 (x)Net profit CAGR % pre-covid (FY17-19)Net profit CAGR % post-covid (FY19-23)
MUFG (JPN)4860.51.83.911.3
SMFG (JPN)3990.51.67.610.4
Deutsche Bank (EU)2460.30.9-9.59.3
UBS Group (EU)2480.81.97.98.8
Banco Santander (EU)1710.61.32.013.9
Barclays (UK)1880.61.14.69.9
ICICI Bank1683.02.78.116.0
HSBC Holdings (UK)1521.02.03.022.2
JPMorgan Chase (US)1451.82.615.017.0
BNP Paribas (EU)930.70.93.19.6
Axis Bank752.51.6-7.512.1
Bank of America (US)741.11.610.610.6
Wells Fargo (US)631.11.610.110.6
Citigroup (US)621.11.110.36.8
HDFC Bank294.32.116.513.7
Kotak Mahindra Bank164.12.113.711.4

Note: All figures pertain to consolidated financials. Core P/B reflects book value net of investment in subsidiaries. FY20 (ended March 31) for Indian banks; MUFG and SMFG; CY19 for the rest. FY24 for Indian banks, MUFG and SMFG; CY23 for the rest. Source: Company disclosures, Bloomberg.


From the source provided, here is the full text of the article titled "HDFC Bank CEO signals a push for growth; Q1 net profit up 5%" found on page 1 of the July 19, 2026, edition of The Hindu Businessline Portfolio:


HDFC Bank CEO signals a push for growth; Q1 net profit up 5%

By Our Bureau, Mumbai

HDFC Bank reported a 5 per cent year-on-year (YoY) rise in standalone net profit for the June quarter of FY27 at ₹19,060 crore, supported by higher net interest income and sharply lower provisions.

On the bank’s growth, the private sector bank had posted a net profit of ₹18,155 crore in the corresponding quarter last year. Adjusted for transaction gains from the partial divestment in HDB Financial Services' IPO, certain provisions and a tax credit in the year-ago quarter, the Q1 net profit was about 10 per cent higher.

On the bank’s growth outlook, Sashidhar Jagdishan, MD and CEO, said that the new bank distribution over the past five-six years would begin yielding benefits over the next couple of years. “On (advances), I think, given the pace of us expanding the pedal... Opportunity does exist, and there is a fair amount of buoyancy in what we are doing at this stage. The environment continues to be very healthy,” he noted.

FCNR(B) DEPOSITS

On mobilising fresh Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) [FCNR(B)] deposits under the RBI's concessional swap facility, the bank said it sees a significant opportunity. Sashidhar said the Bank has already raised about $750 million to provide leverage to NRIs for placing FCNR(B) deposits. It also plans to raise an additional $750-800 million to further leverage its best customers.

Responding to a question on Sashidhar’s reappointment, HDFC Bank Deputy Managing Director Kaizad M Bharucha said: “The new chairman has just taken over. The GNRC (Governance, Nomination and Remuneration Committee) and the board is seized of the matter. As soon as they conclude (the process), we will come out and inform all of you people and the exchanges as to the outcome of the exercise”.

During the quarter, the net interest income (NII) rose 7 per cent to ₹33,534 crore, from ₹31,438 crore a year ago. Provisions declined sharply by 79 per cent to ₹3,060 crore.

Moderate show (in ₹ cr)

ItemQ1FY26 (N)Q1FY27y-o-y % change
Net profit18,15519,0604.98
Net interest income31,43833,5346.67
Other income10,22312,31620.47
Deposits27,64,08931,70,83014.71
Advances26,25,43430,37,10315.55
GNPA %1.41.17
NNPA %0.470.41

(N) Adjusted for HDB divestment


From the sources provided, here is the full text of the article titled "Time is ticking for US oil reserves" found on page 2 of the July 19, 2026, edition of The Hindu Businessline Portfolio:


Time is ticking for US oil reserves

BUFFER WATCH. The market absorbed the first Hormuz disruption by drawing down inventories and tapping spare capacity. Those stockpiles are now thinner, leaving crude prices more vulnerable to another supply shock

By Akhil Nallamuthu, bl. research bureau

Geopolitical risk, the familiar catalyst, is sending crude oil prices higher again. The peace agreement between Israel and Iran, which was already regarded as a fragile one, came under the biggest strain yet on July 7, as both countries traded fresh rounds of attacks.

At first, it appeared like the crude trade had clearly bowled out the bulls. Their confidence that the surge in Dated Brent prices was temporary was reflected in the steep backwardation curve of Brent futures.

However, now, with Hormuz disruption back in play, the crude price could be on the rise again, it appears this time it’s different. The price behaviour within the crude complex is not the same as the surge in Brent of late.

When the Strait of Hormuz was closed in early March, as an initial reaction, Dated Brent, representing the physical crude oil prices for immediate delivery, surged 45 per cent, outperforming the Brent futures’ 36 per cent rise in the first ten days of the conflict. But since the recent escalation, so far, Brent futures have rallied 22 per cent, marginally outperforming Dated Brent, up 20 per cent.

Interestingly though, one important factor remained at elevated levels and never cooled: Crack Spread, which is the price difference between a barrel of raw crude oil and refined products made from it like gasoline, diesel etc. Even when the prices of both Dated Brent and Brent futures fell, post the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran on June 18, the crack spread did not correct much. In fact, post the re-escalation now, it surpassed the peak of $39.77/barrel it had hit early during the war and marked a fresh all-time high of $69.16/barrel on July 15.

Why has the crack spread stayed higher? What does the price behaviour of Dated Brent and Brent futures signal? What do both mean for the prices? Here’s an analysis.

THE BOTTLENECK

The 3-2-1 crack spread, a widely-used proxy for refinery gross margin, measures the difference between the value of refined products and the cost of crude oil. It assumes that three barrels of crude yield two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of distillate such as diesel, jet fuel or heating oil. The process of refining is also referred to as cracking, hence the name.

Unlike Brent futures and Dated Brent, the crack spread witnessed only a modest correction after the announcement of the US-Iran peace deal in June. While the spread declined 25 per cent from its peak, both Brent futures and Dated Brent slumped to a low in early July, losing by 41 per cent and 53 per cent respectively.

The latest escalation pushed the spread to a record high of $69.16/barrel on July 15. This comes even as crude oil prices are nowhere near the wartime record-highs despite the recent rally. At a per cent of Brent futures, the crack spread increased from 46 per cent to a substantial 86 per cent on July 6. It stands at 71 per cent now.

The divergence suggests that refined-product markets are considerably tighter than the crude market. More importantly, the tightness appears to be driven more by supply constraints rather than a surge in demand.

Part of the explanation lies in inventories. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), for the week ended July 3, distillate inventories were 12 per cent below the five-year average, while gasoline inventories were 6 per cent below the average.

Gasoline inventories were lower due to a combination of factors such as lower production, lower imports and higher exports. At the same time, refiners appear to have prioritised distillate as margins remained significantly stronger. The refining gross margin for distillate (also referred as distillate crack) currently stands at about $84/barrel compared to gasoline crack of $52/barrel.

The preference for distillates has coincided with disruptions to Russian refining operations. Ukraine’s attacks have affected more than a quarter of Russia’s refining capacity, and the refinery runs have slumped to a two-decade low. This curtailed supplies of diesel and other refined products. Russia has also imposed a temporary ban on diesel exports until July 31 and also restrictions on the export of gasoline and jet fuel.

Longer shipping routes following the disruption of traditional trade flows have added to distillate consumption, further tightening balances.

So, broadly, the bottleneck appeared to have shifted from crude oil supplies to refined product supplies. Consequently, refining margins have continued to strengthen even after the crude market shed much of its geopolitical risk premium. Recent re-escalation will only complicate things.

Going by all the above, the latest rally in crude oil prices appears to be driven more by precautionary risk premium than by signs of immediate physical shortage.

FEAR BUT NOT FRENZY

After the US attacked Iran for the first time in February, crude oil prices surged. Dated Brent, the benchmark for physical cargoes, rallied 104 per cent to hit a high of $144.46/barrel on April 7, while Brent futures gained 64 per cent to touch $119.50/barrel on March 9. Notably, futures peaked nearly a month before the physical benchmark.

The divergence reflected the scramble for prompt barrels — oil available immediately. Brent futures, on the other hand, quote oil for delivery at a future date.

With the Strait of Hormuz shut and uncertainty surrounding replacement supplies, buyers were willing to pay steep premiums for cargoes that were already available. Consequently, Dated Brent’s premium over Brent futures widened to a record $35.87/barrel on April 9.

Backwardation inching up again

Sept 2025 Vs Oct 2027 Brent futures spread ($/barrel) The same message was visible in the futures curve. Near term contracts significantly outperformed deferred contracts, pushing the market into steep backwardation.

Futures curve in backwardation means near-term oil contracts trade at a premium to the longer-dated ones. The spread between the front-month (September 2025) and the June 2027 Brent futures contract widened to a record $42.99/barrel on March 9.

The latest escalation has produced a different response. Since July 7, Brent futures have risen 22 per cent, whereas Dated Brent has gained 20 per cent. The spread between September 2025 and June 2027 contracts has also recovered only modestly to about $10/barrel, well below the levels seen during the peak of the Hormuz disruption.

The difference is because, earlier, prices were anchored by a genuine shortage of immediately available barrels. Today, prices appear to be anchored more by expectations than by physical scarcity.

That said, the current calm in the physical market is contingent on oil continuing to flow. And there lies the real risk.

THINNER CUSHION

The last time the Strait of Hormuz was shut, the oil market had a cushion. This time, that appears considerably thinner.

| What changed in the oil market | | | | :--- | :---: | :---: | | Metric | Then (first Hormuz closure) | Now | | US Total inventories | 872 mb | 726 mb | | US Strategic Petroleum Reserves | 415 mb | 316 mb | | Distillate inventories | 120 mb | 108 mb | | Gasoline inventories | 241 mb | 211 mb | | OECD (ex-US) total inventories | 1,543 mb | 1,303 mb* | | OPEC spare capacity | 3.43 mb/d | 0.44 mb/d | | Russian refinery throughput | 5.4 mb/d | 3.8 mb/d | *Q3 FY27 forecast. mb: million barrels; mb/d: million barrels per day.

Following the June 18 peace deal between the US and Iran, the US EIA lowered its Brent crude forecast for 2026 to $82/barrel from $95/barrel earlier and projected prices to average $65/barrel in 2027. But the outlook was based on the assumption that oil would continue flowing through Hormuz.

The first disruption was absorbed through a combination of factors such as inventories, strategic reserves, rerouted trade flows and weaker demand. EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) projects OECD commercial crude and liquids inventories (ex-US) to decline from 1,543 million barrels at the end of 2025 to 1,303 million barrels by the third quarter of 2026, a drawdown of 240 million barrels.

Moreover, EIA recently noted that inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, have approached levels near the “tank bottoms”. Since storage facilities require a minimum volume of oil to remain operational, not every barrel reported in inventories is necessarily available to the market.

The total inventory in the US, that includes Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) and commercial stocks, is already down by 145 million barrels to 726 million barrels between March 20, when SPR access began, and July 10. SPR dropped by 99 million barrels to 316 million barrels, while commercial stocks decreased by about 47 million to 410 million barrels.

Global oil consumption is estimated to decline by 1.2 million barrels/day this year, largely because of weaker demand in Asia. The slowdown in demand was another factor that helped absorb the first disruption.

At the same time, spare production capacity has shrunk sharply. The EIA estimates OPEC’s surplus production capacity at just 0.44 million barrels/day in 2026, down from 3.43 million barrels/day in 2025. Notable, spare capacity in West is estimated at zero from the second quarter through the rest of this year.

The EIA had expected inventories to begin rebuilding from the fourth quarter and spare capacity to recover in 2027. Instead, the market now faces another disruption.

The strain is already visible in fuel markets. According to the IEA (International Energy Agency), refinery global throughput in June was about 6 million barrels/day lower than a year ago as West Asian export refineries remained disrupted and Russian refinery runs were curtailed. Several Asian plants continue to operate below normal levels. Russian refinery output alone was about 1.6 million barrels/day lower than last year.

Recently, the IEA warned that the global economies have only a matter of weeks and not months before a prolonged disruption through Hormuz begins to cause significant economic damage.

STAKES ARE HIGH

In our Big Story, The 900-million barrel question in M.portfolio edition dated May 10, we had noted how from March 11 till then, cumulatively around 900-million barrels in crude oil supply was lost and that the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz was essential to prevent flare-ups in oil prices. Release from strategic reserves by some countries, lower imports by China, higher exports by the US and modest demand destruction had saved the day back then.

This time, it’s different. The latest escalation comes at a time when many of those buffers have weakened. OECD commercial crude and liquids inventories, a widely-followed proxy for global oil stockpiles, are projected to be down by 240 million barrels from 2025-end levels. In the US, the combined SPR and commercial inventories have already fallen by 145 million barrels since March 20. OPEC’s spare production capacity has also shrunk to 0.44 million barrels/day in 2026 from 3.43 million barrels/day in 2025, while refined-product markets remain exceptionally tight, as reflected in the record-high crack spread.

As risks are widening, Iran has threatened disruption through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another critical shipping route, while any recovery in Chinese crude imports could tighten balances further. For now, the market appears to be pricing a risk premium rather than an outright shortage. But if these risks materialise simultaneously, today’s premium could evolve into genuine physical scarcity. In this scenario, oil prices may not just revisit their earlier peak of $119.50/barrel, they could overshoot it sharply.



Based on the source provided, here is the full text of the article titled "Vikram-1 takes India’s private space sector to new orbit" from page 13 of the July 19, 2026, edition of The Hindu Businessline Portfolio:


Vikram-1 takes India’s private space sector to new orbit

By Rohan Das, Chennai

Even erratic weather conditions and last minute technical snags could not keep Skyroot Aerospace’s Vikram-1 grounded for long, as the rocket finally surged into the Saturday afternoon sky to become the first Indian privately-built launch vehicle to achieve full orbital flight, marking a milestone only the country’s state-owned space agency had achieved.

The seven-storey-tall rocket, built by Hyderabad-based space tech start-up Skyroot, lifted off from the first launch pad at Satish Dhawan Space Centre in Sriharikota. The command center witnessed a more different sight than usual with dozens of researchers and youngsters in their 20s and 30s nervously peering over their consoles.

SLIGHT DELAY

Some nervous moments due to minor software issues led to a 35-minute delay in launch time. But it was complete elation at 12.05 p.m. as Vikram-1 lifted off successfully.

Within minutes of lift-off, the mission captured the real-time in-flight performance data from every system on Vikram-1 — propulsion, stage separation, guidance, navigation, communication and ground system performance. After lift-off, the mission unfolded in three stages. The first two flew by in under two minutes as the rocket powered through the lower atmosphere and entered space where it shed its protective fairings. The third stage was slower and more precise, providing the final push needed to fire before the Orbital Adjustment Module in six tense minutes placed the payload into its intended orbit.

While the key objective of the launch was to validate systems in Vikram-1, the rocket also carried some technology demonstration payloads from companies like Space Kidz India, Pixxel, and Dhruva Space.

SMALL TALISMAN

Hidden inside the nose cone was a lab-grown diamond from Cosmos Diamonds, a miniature piece of some of India’s space legends including Vikram Sarabhai, APJ Abdul Kalam and CV Raman and letters from individuals including PM Narendra Modi.

Speaking at the post-launch press conference, Pawan Kumar Chandana, Co-founder and CEO, Skyroot Aerospace, called it a historic moment not just for Skyroot but the global space sector. “The world needs more access to space and the world has a new launch vehicle. From building and launching it to orbit in the first attempt is a proud moment for us,” he said.

Co-founder and COO Naga Bharath Daka said the company is now working on its next launch scheduled for later this year. The rocket is powered by an all-carbon composite structure and high-performance 3D-printed propulsion systems, including 3D-printed engines and high-thrust solid fuel boosters.


From the source provided, here is the full text of the article titled "2024 National Awards: ‘Article 370’ named best film; Mammootty, Kartik Aaryan, Yami Gautam best actors" found on page 13 of the July 19, 2026, edition of The Hindu Businessline Portfolio:


2024 National Awards: ‘Article 370’ named best film; Mammootty, Kartik Aaryan, Yami Gautam best actors

By Our Bureau, New Delhi

Hindi film Article 370 was named the Best Feature Film of the 72nd National Film Awards for 2024. The awards were announced on Saturday.

Malayalam superstar Mammootty for Bramayugam and Kartik Aaryan for Hindi film Chandu Champion shared the Best Actor in a Leading Role award. Yami Gautam was declared the Best Actress in a Leading Role award for Article 370.

Randeep Hooda won the Best Debut Director award for Swatantrya Veer Savarkar.

The blockbuster movie, Kalki 2898 AD bagged awards for Best Popular Film Providing Wholesome Entertainment and Best Production Design categories.

Rajkumar Periasamy won the Best Director award for Tamil film Amaran, which also won the Best Editing award and shared the Best Music Direction award with Article 370.

Pushpa: The Rule Part-02 won the Best Costume Design award and shared the Best Screenplay award with Marathi film Swargandharva Sudhir Phadke and Telugu flick Lucky Baskhar.

Tamil flick Captain Miller was named the Best Feature Film Promoting National, Social and Environmental values while Telugu flick Chinnu Katha Kaadu bagged the Best Children’s Film award.

Bhangaar won the award for best non-feature film, while Ravi-Nami was named the Best Documentary.

Baayon was named as the best Tamil film, Mithya as the best Kannada film, Committee Kurrulu was named the best Telugu film and Ponniyin Selvan-II as the best Malayalam film in the language categories.



Based on the sources provided, here is the full text of the article titled "Poised to rise" from the "Chart-Gazing" section on page 8 of the July 19, 2026, edition of The Hindu Businessline Portfolio:


Poised to rise

INDEX OUTLOOK. The price action last week indicates lack of strong sellers in the market

By Gurumurthy K, bl. research bureau

Nifty 50, Sensex and the Nifty Bank index moved in a narrow range until Thursday. However, on Friday, the trend was very much intact. The market indices witnessed a strong rise. The movement last week indicates a lack of strong sellers in the market. That keeps our overall bullish view intact. We expect the Nifty and Sensex to breach their upcoming resistance and go higher in the coming weeks.

Nifty Bank index, on the other hand, is struggling to move higher. We expect the index to make a bullish breakout of its range and move up, going forward.

FPIs SELL

FPIs were selling for four consecutive weeks, the foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were net sellers of Indian equities last week — they sold about $356 million in the cash segment.

NIFTY 50 (24,334.30)

Short-term view: Nifty managed to sustain very well above 24,000 all through last week. The trend remains up. Immediate resistances are at 24,400 and 24,500. We expect the Nifty to break 24,500 and rise to 24,800 or even 24,950 in the short term.

After this rise, a corrective dip to 24,500-24,400 is possible. A fresh leg of rally thereafter can take the Nifty up to 25,500 and higher.

Supports are at 24,000 and 23,800. The Nifty has to fall below 23,800 to become negative for a fall to 23,000. But that looks less likely.

Medium-term view: Nifty is attempting to go up within its broader range of 23,000-25,000. A break above 24,950 can trigger a fresh rally to 26,000-26,500.

The bias remains positive. Nifty can make a bullish breakout above 25,000 and then rise towards 28,000 and even 30,000 in the coming months.

This bullish view will get negated only if the index declines below 22,000. That looks less likely at the moment.

NIFTY BANK (58,521.40)

Short-term view: The index has risen well within its 56,500-58,900 range. We need to touch the long-awaited bullish breakout above 58,900. It can happen now or not. Such a break can take the Nifty Bank index higher to 60,500 and 61,500.

A break below 56,500 is needed to turn the short-term view negative. If that happens, a fall to 55,000 or 54,000 is possible.

Medium-term view: The broader picture remains positive. Nifty Bank index is likely to breach the key resistance level of 61,500. That will clear the way for a rally to 65,000 in the medium term. It will also keep the doors open to target 68,000-69,000 in the long term.

SENSEX (78,131.45)

Short-term view: After getting support in the 77,000-78,000 region, Sensex has risen well towards the end of the week. Resistance is in the 78,800-79,000 region, which can be tested this week. We expect the Sensex to breach 79,000 for a rise to 81,000-81,500 in the short term.

Failure to breach 79,000 can drag the index down to 78,000 again. The level of 76,000 is a strong support. The short-term outlook will turn negative only if the index declines below 76,000.

Medium-term view: The broader range of 71,000-86,000 remains intact. Sensex is likely to go up towards 86,000, the upper end of the range, in the medium term. A break above 81,500 can trigger this rise.

Eventually, a bullish breakout above 86,000 is likely to be seen in the coming months. Such a break will trigger a fresh rally to 90,000 and even 94,000 in the long term.

NIFTY MIDCAP 150 (22,967.90)

The resistance at 23,300 has held well. The Nifty Midcap 150 index has come down after touching a high of 23,239.65. A fall to 22,750 looks likely this week. A bounce thereafter can take the index higher to 23,000-23,300 again. But a break below 22,750 can drag the index down to 22,550.

We retain our overall bullish bias. So, eventually, we expect to see a bullish breakout above 23,300. Such a break can take the Nifty Midcap 150 index higher to 26,000-26,500 initially in the medium term. It also opens the doors for the index to target 28,300-28,500 in the long term.

The above-mentioned rise will get negated if the index breaks below 22,550 from here. If that happens, a fall to 22,000-21,800 and even lower can be seen.

From a big picture perspective, 21,000-20,800 is a crucial support area for the Nifty Midcap 150 index. Our bullish view will get completely negated only if the index declines below 20,800. That looks less likely for now.

NIFTY SMALLCAP 250 (18,051.80)

The price action last week indicates lack of strong follow-through to take the index above 18,200. Immediate support is at 17,900. A break below it can drag the Nifty Smallcap 250 index down to 17,500-17,400 initially. It can even go down to 17,000-16,800 to bounce back thereafter, then rise to a 18,000-18,200 can be seen again. In that case, 17,500-18,200 could be the trading range for some time.

From a big-picture view, our overall bullish bias intact. An eventual break above 18,300 can boost the momentum. It can then take the Nifty Smallcap 250 index up to 21,000-22,000 in the medium term and 24,000-25,000 in the long term.

If the index breaks below 17,000 from here, an extended fall to 17,300 and even lower levels can be seen. In that case, an eventual bullish rise above 18,300 will get delayed.


SHORT-TERM TARGETS

  • Nifty: 24,400, 24,500
  • Sensex: 81,000, 81,500
  • Nifty Bank: 60,500, 61,500

Based on the sources provided, here is the full text of the article titled "Struggling to move up" from the "Chart-Gazing" section on page 8 of the July 19, 2026, edition of The Hindu Businessline Portfolio:


Struggling to move up

US MARKET OUTLOOK. Absence of a follow-through rise is a negative

By Gurumurthy K, bl. research bureau

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for the second consecutive week. The index was down 0.93 per cent for the week. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite index, on the other hand, snapped their two-week rise. The indices fell 1.55 per cent and 2.90 per cent respectively. The recent price action indicates that the US benchmark indices are struggling to rise. This signals the absence of fresh buyers in the market. We suggest remaining cautious at the moment rather than being overly bullish on the US markets.

DOW JONES (52,151.22)

The index is struggling to rise and remains strong as long as it is at 52,000. A break below it can drag the index down to 51,700-51,650, the next key support area. Resistance is at 53,200. A break above it can take the Dow Jones up to 54,000 and higher levels.

But a break below 51,650 can increase the selling pressure. It will also indicate that a top is in place. In that case, 51,000 can be seen first. It will also keep the downside open to see 50,000-49,000 eventually in the coming weeks.

S&P 500 (7,457.70)

The resistance at 7,600 continues to cap the upside. The index hovered around 7,550 for major part of the week and fell sharply on Friday. Key supports are at 7,430 and 7,400. A decisive break below 7,400 will be bearish, triggering a potential fall to 7,200-7,100.

If the index manages to sustain above 7,400, it can rise back to 7,600. A breakout above 7,600 will be bullish. That can strengthen the bullish case for a rise to 7,800. The price action in the coming week will be key. We need a close watch this week.

NASDAQ COMPOSITE (25,820.24)

The Nasdaq Composite index failed to get a strong follow-through rise last week. A strong resistance is at 26,000. That leaves the bias negative. Key support is at 25,500. A break below it can drag the Nasdaq Composite index down to 24,500 and even 24,000 in the coming weeks.

The region between 26,000 and 26,500 is a key resistance. A sustained rise above 26,500 is needed to take the index higher towards 28,000.

DOLLAR OUTLOOK

The dollar index (100.75) declined below the support at 100.86, but has stayed within it. The index has risen back from the low of 100.38. The immediate outlook is slightly unclear. Strong resistance is in the 101.30-101.40 region. As long as the index stays below the 101.10-101.20 resistance zone, the near-term bias will remain negative. A fall to 100.20-100 is possible in that case.

The dollar index has to breach 101.40 to gain fresh bullish momentum. Only then the upside will open up for a rise to 103. Such a rise will keep the doors open for the dollar index to see 105-106 in the medium term.

TREASURY YIELD

The US 10-Yr Treasury Yield has come off after touching a high of 4.64 per cent last week. The broader picture remains positive for back up and build up to 4.8 per cent. Below that, 4.4 per cent is a strong support. As long as the yield stays above 4.4 per cent, the outlook is bullish for a rise to 4.8 per cent. A break above 4.8 per cent, however, a fall beyond 4.4 per cent is not possible.

As long as the yield stays above 4.4 per cent, the outlook will remain bullish. A reversal either from here or after a dip to 4.4 per cent can take the 10-year yield up to 4.6 per cent again. A break above 4.8 per cent then can take the US 10Yr Treasury Yield up to 5.2 per cent in the medium term.

A decisive break below 4.4 per cent is needed to negate this bullish view.


KEY RESISTANCE: The dollar index has to breach the 101-101.20 resistance to gain strength and rise towards 103.



The Infrastructure Moment: Investing in Modern Global Foundations

 "The Infrastructure Moment" represents a critical inflection point in global society where traditional infrastructure—like roads and bridges—is converging with new, technology-driven assets. Digital infrastructure is at the heart of this shift, acting as a catalyst for all other verticals and necessitating a fundamental mindset shift from siloed planning to cross-vertical integration.

The Role of Digital Infrastructure as a Catalyst

While the projected $19 trillion in digital investment through 2040 is lower than for transportation or energy, this vertical is expected to see the most growth from current levels. It is now considered the "backbone" of modern business, cities, and AI-powered systems across all sectors.

The sources highlight several key ways digital infrastructure is redefining the global landscape:

  • Tech-Enabled Foundations: Modern infrastructure is increasingly defined by digital layers. For example, traditional bridges are becoming "smart" through IoT strain gauges for predictive maintenance and 5G towers that enable communication with autonomous vehicles.
  • Decentralization and Modularity: Unlike traditional linear systems, digital tools enable nimble, decentralized networks, such as virtual power plants that aggregate smaller energy sources via a centrally managed platform.
  • Semiconductors as Infrastructure: Previously viewed only as commercial components, semiconductors are now treated as strategic infrastructure assets vital to national security and economic competitiveness.

The Digital Inflection Point: AI and Data Centers

The sources identify Artificial Intelligence (AI) as the primary driver of the current technological advancement in infrastructure. This "inflection point" is characterized by:

  • Explosive Data Center Demand: Global demand for data center capacity is projected to more than triple by 2030, driven largely by generative AI.
  • Sovereign AI Factories: Governments and telecom operators are increasingly commissioning "sovereign-AI factories"—national hubs designed to keep sensitive data and AI models within their own borders to ensure digital autonomy.
  • Interdependence with Energy and Water: A prominent example of the new infrastructure era is the "skyrocketing" demand for sustainable energy to power AI and water to cool data center servers, blurring the lines between these three verticals.

Impact Across Other Verticals

Digital infrastructure’s impact is most visible where it intersects with other foundational sectors:

  • Transportation: Low-latency digital infrastructure is unlocking autonomous trucking and rail optimization, with the potential to reduce shipping costs and address labor shortages.
  • Energy: Digital technologies like digital twins (real-time virtual replicas) allow operators to simulate grid scenarios and manage complex renewable energy integrations in minutes rather than days.
  • Agriculture: The use of precision agriculture, IoT-equipped silos, and digital agronomy platforms is helping to increase crop yields and reduce post-harvest losses.
  • Waste and Water: AI-powered sorters and smart-water networks for leak detection are improving operational efficiency and creating new value pools.

Global Connectivity and the Private Sector

Despite rapid expansion, a significant connectivity gap remains, with 40% of the world’s population still lacking fiber-based access as of 2024. To bridge this, the "infrastructure moment" is seeing the rapid deployment of low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellites and subsea cables, such as the 2Africa cable which will triple Africa’s bandwidth. This expansion is increasingly fueled by private capital, with digital infrastructure jumping to roughly 16% of global deal value as investors target towers, fiber, and data centers.


The Infrastructure Inflection Point represents a fundamental shift in global society where traditional physical assets—such as roads, bridges, and power plants—are converging with new technology-driven elements like AI, fiber-optic networks, and sensors. This "moment" captures a transition in the very definition of infrastructure, moving from siloed, linear, and government-controlled systems toward integrated, tech-enabled, and market-driven ecosystems.

The Infrastructure Moment: A Mindset Shift

The sources describe "The infrastructure moment" as a critical juncture requiring a mindset shift among governments, investors, and operators. Key characteristics of this inflection point include:

  • Expansion of Definition: Infrastructure now includes not only physical constructs but also the digital networks and supporting services—such as remote monitoring, inspection, and maintenance—that ensure assets remain reliable and resilient.
  • Cross-Vertical Interdependence: The boundaries between sectors are blurring. For example, the success of electric-vehicle corridors depends on the simultaneous coordination of power utilities (energy), highway authorities (transportation), and payment platforms (digital).
  • Decentralization and Modularity: Modern systems are moving away from centralized "one-way" flows toward nimble networks of smaller units, such as "virtual power plants" that aggregate multiple smaller energy sources via a central digital platform.

The Digital Inflection Point: AI as a Major Driver

Digital technology, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) in particular, is identified as the primary force driving this advancement. This digital inflection point is characterized by:

  • Explosive Compute Demand: Generative AI is fueling a "step change" in the demand for computing power, with global data center capacity projected to more than triple by 2030.
  • Digital as a Catalyst: While the $19 trillion projected investment for digital infrastructure is lower than for transportation or energy, it is the fastest-growing vertical. It acts as a catalyst, providing the "backbone" for smart cities and AI-powered systems across all other sectors.
  • Sovereign AI Factories: A new geopolitical trend involves the commissioning of "sovereign-AI factories"—national hubs designed to maintain data autonomy and keep sensitive models within national borders.

New Intersections and Value Creation

The inflection point is most visible at the intersection of verticals, creating new business models and investment opportunities:

  • Energy and Digital: The "skyrocketing" demand for sustainable energy to power AI data centers and water to cool their servers has tightly linked these three verticals.
  • Transportation and Digital: High-capacity fiber, 5G, and edge data centers are unlocking autonomous trains and trucks, which could reduce shipping costs and address labor shortages.
  • The Rise of Private Capital: Private investors are increasingly targeting these intersections, with 75 percent of infrastructure capital raised between late 2023 and early 2024 going toward cross-vertical strategies.

Ultimately, this inflection point suggests that the ability to build "fast but smart" is becoming as critical as capital itself, as stakeholders race to meet the demands of an increasingly connected and electrified world.


The Infrastructure Moment and the Digital Inflection Point bring a fundamental shift in how foundations of society are built, but they are accompanied by significant strategic challenges and constraints that could hinder global progress if not addressed.

Workforce and Productivity Constraints

A primary bottleneck to the current infrastructure expansion is a severe shortage of skilled labor.

  • Construction Delays: More than half of US construction firms report project delays due to worker shortages, with critical projects like semiconductor facilities citing labor gaps as a cause for cost overruns.
  • Growing Demand: The US infrastructure workforce will need an additional 350,000 workers by 2027–28, while the global renewables sector must add 2.8 million jobs by 2030.
  • Low Digitization: Construction remains one of the least digitized industries, leading to projects frequently taking 20% longer than planned and exceeding budgets by up to 80%.

Physical and Resource Limitations

The Digital Inflection Point, driven by AI, is hitting a "wall" in terms of physical resources.

  • The Power and Water "Nexus": The "skyrocketing" demand for energy to power AI data centers and water to cool them is straining existing grids,. In Ireland, for instance, data centers already consume 21% of national electricity, leading to a moratorium on new connections until 2028.
  • The Connectivity Gap: Despite the digital boom, 40% of the global population still lacked access to fiber-based connectivity as of 2024, particularly in remote or developing regions where the economics of deployment are difficult to scale,.
  • Semiconductor Fragility: The "engine" of digital infrastructure—semiconductors—is subject to fragile supply chains, leading nations to treat them as strategic assets and rush to reshore production through massive subsidy programs,.

Geopolitical and Regulatory Hurdles

Infrastructure is increasingly being used as a strategic tool in global politics, which adds layers of complexity to investment.

  • Trade Uncertainty: Rising tariffs and geopolitical tensions are upending investment decisions and trade routes, with "nearshoring" and "friendshoring" becoming the new standard,,.
  • Sovereign Requirements: The rise of "sovereign AI" requires data centers and models to stay within national borders, creating a fragmented landscape for global tech companies,,.
  • Permitting Bottlenecks: Regulatory hurdles and slow interconnection processes are cited as major causes for the lengthy delays in critical grid and social infrastructure projects,,.

Economic and Lifecycle Challenges

  • Aging Foundations: Many core systems in developed nations, such as the US power grid and French bridges, were built decades ago and are now nearing the end of their functional lifespan,,.
  • Financial Constraints: Higher interest rates are increasing discount rates and compressing returns for private investors, while governments face difficult fiscal tradeoffs between maintaining old assets and building new ones,.
  • Interdependence Bottlenecks: Because infrastructure verticals are now so interconnected, a lag in one (like insufficient electricity) creates immediate bottlenecks across the entire system (such as halting data center development).

To overcome these constraints, the sources suggest that stakeholders must move away from a "siloed" approach and adopt cross-vertical strategies that integrate technology, private capital, and streamlined regulation,,.


The Infrastructure Moment and Digital Inflection Point demand a fundamental mindset shift from all stakeholders, moving away from siloed planning toward cross-vertical integration to manage a projected $106 trillion in global investment needs by 2040. The sources outline specific strategic implications for three core groups: governments, investors, and operators/developers.

Implications for Governments

Governments face the dual challenge of aging legacy systems and rapidly rising demand for new, tech-enabled foundations. To thrive, they must transition from being sole providers to strategic facilitators of infrastructure.

  • Repurposing Assets: Policymakers are encouraged to transform underused or surplus land into high-demand assets, such as turning former military sites into renewables-powered data centers.
  • Regulatory Streamlining: Regulatory "bottlenecks," particularly in permitting, are major hurdles that governments can address by setting statutory approval deadlines and launching digital one-stop portals for applications.
  • Attracting Private Capital: Governments must create transparent frameworks, such as competitive bidding mandates for sanitation or "rail plus property" models, to reduce perceived risks for private investors.
  • Strategic Prioritization: Fiscal constraints require governments to "do more with less" by using precise selection criteria to eliminate wasteful projects, which could save or redeploy up to $200 billion annually.

Implications for Investors

As competition for traditional infrastructure assets drives down profits, investors are being forced to find new ways to generate "alpha" or superior returns.

  • Thematic Diversification: Investors are widening their mandates to include "infrastructure-like" assets in non-traditional sectors, such as agricultural logistics, poultry infrastructure, or marine logistics.
  • Cross-Vertical Strategies: There is a significant shift toward "thematic" investing that targets the intersections of verticals, such as joint ventures between energy and digital firms to build AI data centers co-located with renewable power.
  • Active Value Creation: With higher interest rates compressing returns, investors can no longer rely solely on financial engineering; they must instead focus on operational improvements, such as using AI and IoT to optimize maintenance and supply chains within their portfolios.

Implications for Operators and Developers

Operators and developers are experiencing a "margin squeeze" from rising costs and labor shortages, making efficiency through technology a necessity rather than an option.

  • Technological Integration: Firms are increasingly using Generative AI for real-time project scheduling and digital twins for predictive maintenance, which can reduce utility downtime by up to 75%.
  • Service-Based Models: To capture more value, developers are expanding into bundled service offerings, such as transport concessionaires providing "energy-as-a-service" through EV charging networks.
  • Asset Life Extension: Instead of costly full replacements, operators are using advanced sensors and monitoring to extend the functional lifespan of existing infrastructure, such as offshore wind farms or airport baggage systems.

Ultimately, the sources suggest that the ability to "build fast but smart" is becoming as critical as capital itself, as stakeholders race to meet the demands of an increasingly connected and digital world.



Newspaper Summary 180726

 The following is the reproduced article from the July 18, 2026, edition of The Hindu BusinessLine:


Reliance Ind revenue jumps 25% in Q1 led by O2C and Jio

Mixed bag. Net profit drops 22% on effect of one-time gain last year; EBITDA at record ₹47,517 cr

Amit Vijay Mehra Pallavi Sangani Mumbai

Reliance Industries reported a robust set of Q1 FY27 earnings, with strong performance from its oil-to-chemical (O2C) and digital services businesses helping it surpass street expectations. While reported profit declined due to higher tax outgo compared to the same period last year, recurring profitability reached a record high.

Profit fell 22.4 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) to ₹15,046 crore, largely because Q1 FY26 included a one-time gain from the sale of the company’s stake in Asian Paints (including ₹8,924 crore from the deal). Adjusting for this, profit for Q1 FY27 would have been 16 per cent higher. Higher interest costs and depreciation charges also weighed on the bottomline.

RECORD PAT

However, on a recurring basis, profit after tax before minority interest rose 6.1 per cent to an all-time high of ₹23,250 crore from an adjusted ₹21,889 crore a year ago. The reported profit figure was ahead of Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of ₹17,046 crore.

Mukesh Ambani, Chairman and Managing Director, RIL, said: “Reliance has made a strong start to FY27, with all businesses delivering robust operating performance even as the company witnessed continuing geopolitical tensions and volatile commodity markets”.

Gross revenue rose by 24.8 per cent year on year to ₹3.11 lakh crore, while EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) from operations climbed 25.4 per cent to ₹53,850 crore from ₹42,931 crore in the corresponding quarter last year, exceeding Bloomberg’s estimate of ₹47,517 crore. Recurring EBITDA also hit an all-time high of ₹46,600 crore, up 15.7 per cent.

“Strong O2C margins and resilient Jio growth powered Reliance’s quarter, offsetting lingering pricing pressure in the upstream and retail segments,” said Sweta Jain, Head of Research at Equirus Securities.

O2C RECOVERY

The O2C segment delivered one of its strongest quarters in recent years. Revenue surged 30.4 per cent to ₹1.45 lakh crore in Q1 FY27, while EBITDA rose 17.2 per cent to ₹13,093 crore from ₹11,170 crore. The improvement was driven by a sharp recovery in refinery margins, particularly for diesel and jet fuel, along with downstream demand revival in Asia. Crude oil prices also stayed in the $75-80 a barrel range for three to four years. Higher refinery throughput also helped, even as the segment recovered from a planned maintenance turnaround.

JIO DIGITAL

Jio continued to execute well with subscriber additions, modest ARPU improvement and record-high EBITDA margins, reaffirming strength of its telecom franchise. EBITDA grew 15.1 per cent to ₹14,105 crore, with EBITDA margins expanding by 150 basis points to 53.5 per cent from 51.5 per cent.

Digital services revenue grew 20 per cent y-o-y, significantly ahead of the 11 per cent growth in the previous few quarters. Growth was driven by content, cloud computing, IoT (Internet of Things) and managed services, highlighting Jio’s diversification beyond traditional telecom operations. Average revenue per user increased to ₹215.6 from ₹200.8 in the year-ago quarter.

Retail remained a key weak spot, with margins contracting to a 10-quarter low amidst investment in scaling digital and e-commerce platforms. Retail revenue grew 7.4 per cent from Q1 FY26. However, EBITDA margins slightly fell to 6.3 per cent from 7.1 per cent, with gross margins contracting 80 basis points to 7.9 per cent from 8.7 per cent.

Scorecard

MetricQ1 FY27Q1 FY26% Change
Gross revenue2,43,0092,11,85015.2
EBITDA47,51741,31715.7
PAT (reported)15,04619,394-22.4
EBITDA margin (%)17.119.5-
Net profit margin (%)6.210.9-

(Note: Revenue and Profit figures in ₹ crore)


The following is the reproduced article from the July 18, 2026, edition of The Hindu BusinessLine:


FPIs exited, but foreign promoters raised stake in Nifty-500 firms in FY26

Sourabh Banerjee
Mumbai

Even as FPIs sold over ₹1.80 lakh crore of Indian equities in FY26, foreign promoters seem to have shown more faith in the Indian stock market.

A businessline analysis of Capitaline data shows that in the 486 companies in the Nifty-500 with foreign promoter holdings, 40 companies, or 27.4 per cent, saw a reduction in foreign promoter stake in FY26 compared with 53 companies (36.5 per cent) in FY25. At the same time, the number of companies witnessing an increase in foreign promoter holdings rose to 21 from 19 a year earlier.

FOREIGN INFLOW

The increase in foreign promoter stake in FY27 was concentrated in a handful of companies. AAWASH Financiers registered the largest increase in foreign promoter stake, as Apollo House bought a majority stake from WestBridge Capital and Partners Group.

Centindia Project, an infrastructure developer and operator, followed closely with an increase of 21.32 percentage points, after Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone’s holdings rose by 4.70 percentage points to 28.03 per cent. AWL Agri Business attracted a further 13 percentage points of foreign promoter investment, while Celance Life recorded a 7.39 percentage point increase.

BIGGEST EXITS

Only 5 companies have seen foreign promoters reduce their holdings by more than 10 per cent in FY26. Twenty companies have seen a marginal reduction at less than one per cent.

The sharpest reduction was seen in JSW Indus, where Imperial Chemical and Akzo Nobel Coatings completely exited their combined 74.76 per cent holding by March 2026. Berger Paints also saw a complete exit of foreign promoter holdings.

Aptus Value Housing Finance recorded the second largest decline, with foreign promoter ownership dropping 38.59 percentage points to 25.43 per cent. WestBridge Crosscut Fund and J.H. II. Anand Kavita continue to hold a 1.03 per cent stake in the company as of March 2026. Whirlpool India and Kraft Technologies also saw a notable decline, with holdings falling by 11.24 percentage points and 10.05 percentage points respectively.

Scorecard: Holding Pattern

  • Companies in Nifty-500 with foreign promoters: 140
  • Stake Increases (FY25 vs FY26): 19 companies → 21 companies
  • Stake Decreases (FY25 vs FY26): 53 companies → 40 companies

Companies with the Largest Increase (March 2025 vs March 2026)

CompanyMarch 2025 (%)March 2026 (%)
Aawas Fin22.444.8
Centindia Project14.335.6
AWL Agri2.115.1
Celance Life6.213.6

(Data source: Capitaline / businessline analysis)


The following is the reproduced article from the July 18, 2026, edition of The Hindu BusinessLine:


As mithai finds a sweet spot globally, exports surge 10%

Rising overseas appetite boosts exports, innovation and investments across industry

G Naga Sridhar Hyderabad

The world is developing a sweet tooth for Indian mithai, with the Indian traditional sweets and namkeen market no longer just a domestic one, but gaining a significant presence globally. The consumption is rapidly expanding beyond the Indian diaspora to foreign nationals.

“About 10 per cent of Indian sweets and namkeen produced in the country is exported and it is growing at over 10 per cent annually,” Feroz H Siyad, Director General, Federation of Sweets and Namkeen Manufacturers (FSNM), told businessline on the sidelines of the World Mithai and Namkeen Convention and Expo (WMNC) 2026.

Indian gulab jamun is now among the most popular desserts in the United Kingdom, while demand is also increasing in South East Asian countries, the US, and Europe.

SUGAR RUSH

Even consumers in Europe, where chocolate-based or fruit-based desserts are more prevalent, are developing a taste for Indian based sweets and namkeen products. The key markets include the US, Canada, the UK, Australia, Singapore, Japan, and South East Asian markets.

According to industry experts, improvements in shelf-life and innovation in taste have helped the industry overcome one of the principal export challenges. Advancements in MAP-based packaging (Modified Atmospheric Packaging) have helped in maintaining the product quality for longer periods to reach distant markets.

CAPACITY EXPANSION

Rising demand is also prompting companies to create dedicated production units for exports. Badri Vadula is setting up an exclusive export-oriented facility, which is expected to be commissioned shortly to undertake large-scale production of makhana laddu for the overseas market, according to its Managing Director, Rajesh Dadul.

Hyderabad-based Dada Dadu is also experimenting with chocolate-based sweets and dry fruit combinations, which are gaining popularity in the Gulf countries and Europe.

Ahead of the festival season, the WMNC-2026 has brought together over 300 manufacturers, retailers, and process and technology providers from the mithai, namkeen, bakery, and allied food sectors. The convention features discussions on the industry’s supply chain—from raw materials, dry fruits, and ingredients to processing, machinery, packaging, automation, and gifting solutions.


The following is the reproduced article from page 6 of the July 18, 2026, edition of The Hindu BusinessLine:


The precarity of living in urban slums

LAST MILE DISCONNECT. Field visits reveal urban social infrastructure has improved, but does not deliver effectively. This is because citizens are not involved in governance.

AMARJEET SINHA SHAGUN SURYAM

Teaching a course on ‘Evolution, Development and Democracy’ at two institutions recently offered an opportunity to engage with young minds on governance and human development challenges at the last mile. After classroom discussions, students were assigned field visits to observe the realities of urban governance on the ground. Their visits — to schools, Anganwadi centres, health centres, municipal offices, and colonies, mostly in informal settlements and slums in Delhi — revealed an important paradox. While physical and social infrastructure has expanded, but quality and outcomes remain uneven.

The students visited a large urban settlement on the outskirts of Delhi, marked by large industrial activity. The challenge at the urban last mile is in access to services, which is often fragmented accountability, and the absence of meaningful community engagement.

Many workers do reach uncovered areas. Yet, the absence of fixed timings for water supply means women often spend hours with large cans, leading to significant and serious health issues. Infrastructure; sustainability of its quality and upkeep remains a challenge. Dirty toilets, ill-maintained drinking water tanks, and dark, dingy classrooms without teachers, anchors classrooms, all point towards the same malaise. There is a need for a call for collaborative community action and institutional accountability to address the infrastructure challenges of unsatisfactory and overcrowded living conditions in informal settlements and secondary schools.

While schools are available, they remain inaccessible to many children. Even for those who attend, the children beyond schooling hours, particularly from migrant families, face excessive non-teaching responsibilities like household chores, cooking, and learning. At the same time, many instances where teacher accountability is being questioned, the schools and Anganwadis are providing an important childcare support for families which makes them inadequate and supply-led.

Public-private partnerships in water and electricity seem to have bettered multiple opportunities, often supported by technology-oriented monitoring systems. Here too, sustainability is a challenge as private partners are unsure of returns.

In slums grappling with poor housing, lack of livelihood opportunities, and water availability, the presence of a local dispensary and diagnostic services is a strong feel-good. Otherwise, even minor illnesses lead to a trudge to distant secondary or tertiary hospitals.

Urban localities with migrant populations have occupational health risks, poor housing conditions, and heightened susceptibility to communicable diseases. Fear of losing a day’s wages often deters treatment and diagnosis, aggravating the health conditions. A new approach to primary care is indeed needed. There is a need to embed public health trust into communities through decentralized collaborative citizen-centric governance.

FILLING INSTITUTIONAL GAPS

The field visits revealed the importance of local enthusiasm. It must become of the local communities. It became clear that for a car with this much internal responsibilities and made an integral part of the planning and implementation of services. In many slums, many of the last mile challenges in scaling digital and e-commerce can further be enhanced with the support of professionals and dedicated civil society organisations working with communities at the last mile.

Women's collectives in a rural-urban settings presented some of the most positive examples encountered during the visits. Self-help groups (SHGs) have enabled savings, access to loans, and support during moments of crisis, while also creating space for trust, solidarity, and collective support for women. Further, participation in SHGs has increased women’s confidence, mobility, and leadership within the community.

However, the limitations imposed by the patriarchy are starkly evident even within these collectives. The emancipatory potential of SHGs continues to face challenges in economic mobility, and functional autonomy of women even when they have financial approval within households. Many women often have to seek permission from husbands to attend meetings, travel to banks, or engage in economic activities. Their agency remains conditionally rather than fully autonomous.

The students also observed many instances of citizen’s participation in service delivery. While this is a positive development, the field visits highlighted that in the absence of hand-holding at the community level and by treating technology as an end rather than a means to an end, inclusion becomes a challenge even when the inclusion is the intent. Once again, a deeper community connect through collaborative governance will be essential in identifying solutions to the challenge.

THE ACCOUNTABILITY DEFICIT

These observations point towards a larger institutional problem: urban governance structures remain administratively present but distant from the communities most dependent on public services.

The larger challenge, however, lies in the structure of urban governance itself. The current institutional framework is distant from bustee or slums where communities on the fringe reside. Also, the wards are too large for meaningful collaborative action. The distance from the last mile results in a lack of both effective oversight and trust. It’s time that governance is devolved and leaders at the local level. It is essential to strengthen and devolve powers of governance to create community-managed urban public services.

What emerged from the field visits was not an absence of citizen willingness to engage, but a lack of governance structures capable of nurturing and sustaining such participation.

Collectively, the field visits reconfirmed the precarity of living in India’s informal urban slums. There is a need for an alternative paradigm of multi-centric collaborative governance. Devolved units of resources, professional support at the community level, and stronger voice and agency for women are essential.

Are citizens are more than ready; is the state willing to recast its role? That is the question.


The writers are retired IAS officers. Suryam was formerly with the World Bank. Sinha is currently a visiting professor at NIUA. The views expressed are personal.


The following is the reproduced article from page 10 of the July 18, 2026, edition of The Hindu BusinessLine:


FPOs want to be treated like farmers, not corporates

Prabhudatta Mishra
New Delhi

Even as FPOs are waiting to get declared “deemed mandis”, they want to govern them independently and carry out trade within its premises. At times, some of the representatives of these FPOs feel that the farmer collectives should at least be considered as “farmer-members”.

This is because the profit is shared among share-holder farmers unlike a private company, though registered under the Companies Act. Such a national policy will help them in multiple ways, such as tax and income tax.

Though some States have allowed free trading outside mandi premises, a few like Uttar Pradesh charge market fees from FPOs as they buy at the tune of 1.5 per cent on essentials like onion, tomato, potato, green chillies, garlic, and ginger in the fruits and vegetables category. “The fee is collected even if the trading happens outside the agriculture market yard,” said a source.

A WAY OUT?

“If FPOs are allowed exemption from mandi fees, they can directly sell outside the state and this will help farmers realise about ₹50 per quintal more on produce,” said Sanjay Gupta, CEO of Sahyadri FPO, Jhansi (Uttar Pradesh).

Nitin Puri, CEO of KisanKonnect, said most of the products his company eds [sic] sourcing from partner FPOs. But, instead of buying raw material in bulk, KisanKonnect has turned these FPOs into primary processors. “We have got them all necessary legal compliances like FSSAI and GST registration as a result we are not worried on mandi fee”.

But Bharat Singh of Sambhav Swarman Parota and other FPOs in western Uttar Pradesh said, the government should treat FPOs differently from any private company. Even for any subsidy, it is the same as what any private company receives.

“Mandi fees and other charges for all products should be made zero for FPOs when we directly collect farmers' produce and sell it and already some States have allowed this,” Kumar said and wondered why only essential fruits and vegetables in UP are taxed in the F&V category.

Sources said that market fee at 1 per cent and development cess at 0.5 per cent is levied on potato, onion, tomato, lemon, green chilli and ginger if they are sold within or outside mandis. Besides, 5 per cent charges are collected by commission agents when buying-selling happens in those six items inside the agriculture market yard.

NO FEE MANDIS

West Bengal, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Jharkhand, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Assam and Andhra Pradesh do not charge any fee in fruits and vegetables (F&V), when trading happens outside mandi premises. States such as Chhattisgarh, Assam, Jharkhand, Maharashtra and West Bengal do not levy any fee on F&V even on trading in any place within the state.

But Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Kerala, Haryana, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh have various fee ranging up to 2 per cent. In Uttar Pradesh, market fee on apple is 1 per cent and both within and outside mandi. Similarly, in Madhya Pradesh, bami and orange attract market fees.

The commission fee charged by commission agents and fixed by the State government varies between 2 per cent in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh and 8 per cent in Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Delhi.


The following is the text of the letter to the editor titled "Attrition in private banks" from page 6 of the July 18, 2026, edition of The Hindu BusinessLine:


Attrition in private banks

With reference to the news report about the rising attrition in leading private sector banks, the banks should focus on motivating their workforces. Their excessive automation will improve customer service, but not employee morale. Higher compensation alone cannot retain talent if the work environment is high-stress and demanding. Banks must prioritise employee well-being to ensure long-term stability.

N S Venkataraman Chennai


The following is the reproduced article from page 10 of the July 18, 2026, edition of The Hindu BusinessLine:


West Asia crisis hits orthodox tea exports from Kochi auctions

V Sajeev Kumar
Kochi

A subdued export demand continues to weigh on orthodox tea sales at the Kochi auctions, attributed mainly to the ongoing conflict in West Asia.

While the country specific currently limited to GCC and other West Asian countries, exports to Iraq and Iran have come to a standstill. Rising freight charges, shipment delays and uncertainty at ports have prompted exporters to go slow on buying, traders said.

The week-end sale 29, offered in sale 29, where more than 80 per cent of the offered quantity of 2,69,439 kg of orthodox tea remained unsold.

The average price also declined by ₹3 to ₹205 a kg. This is the first time in previous weeks, Auctioneers Forbes, Ewart & Figgis said average whole leaf teas witnessed strong demand, with prices appreciating by ₹10 in a big and, in some cases, by ₹15 a kg.

CTC leaf prices were firm to dearer, with 96 per cent of the offered quantity of 29,533 kg sold.

QUALITY BREWS

Anil George Joseph, President of the Tea Trade Association of Cochin, said the market continued to reflect stable demand for quality teas, but there was a trend of selective good auctions from some blenders.

Tea availability was limited to confirmed firm prices, which was seen in Kochi as grades feel resistance, reflecting a cautious approach by the trade and expert demand remained dormant.

The CTC dust market witnessed good demand, with all major blenders and popular Kerala marks ruling firm to dearer. In Sale 29, 9,53,453 kg offered, 86 per cent was sold.

The orthodox dust market was firm to dearer, with the entire offered quantity of 5,804 kg being sold. Retailers and local blenders were the principal buyers.


The following is the reproduced article from page 11 of the July 18, 2026, edition of The Hindu BusinessLine:


Gujarat tops in NITI’s Investment Friendliness Index

Ankita Upadhyay
New Delhi

Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka have emerged as the top performers in the Energy Economics and Environmental Foundation's (EEEF) Investment Friendliness Index, supported by strong economic fundamentals, sound fiscal management and a business-friendly governance. The Index is released by NITI Aayog.

Gujarat topped the overall rank in this assessment for the fourth year in a row, with the state scoring high on various parameters such as GSDP (Gross State Value Added) growth, fiscal prudence and its manufacturing prowess. The State also performed well on social indicators, maintaining a low fiscal deficit, low outstanding liabilities and lower interest payments as a percentage of its revenue. This is a testament to its prudent financial management. In addition, the State recorded the highest score in stakeholder feedback for its policies and scored well on the ease of obtaining permissions and redressing of business-related issues.

The report added that the high rank in investment is driven by its efficient port operations (around 40 per cent of India's major and non-major ports), low power tariffs and an efficient power sector, aided by competitive industries. The State also boasts well-connected and well-maintained roads and provides electricity to its power-intensive industries at lower power costs for below-median industrial usage.

The State has 1.24 lakh high-potential youth out of its 6.04 lakh population, which is 10 per cent higher than the average of other States. It was classified as a ‘Frontrunner’ State on all parameters of its performance as a percentage of its GSDP. The State is the highest-ranked State in the energy pillar. Gujarat ranked among the top 5 States on ease of doing business, after being ranked 1st in the ranking, 3rd in overall rank in 2019 and 2nd in 2018. The report also stands out as one of the top 3 high-investment destinations because it has the highest share of investment in GSDP (3.51 per cent) among the States surveyed, and which has been classified as ‘Frontrunner’ across all pillars. The state's investment friendliness is expected to reach 10 per cent of its GSDP by the end of fiscal 2024-25.

INVESTMENT FRIENDLY

The Index allowed NITI Aayog in August 2023 to prepare an investment-friendly charter comprising key policies, programmes and processes required to attract investments. Subsequently, NITI Aayog and EEEF announced the development of an Investment Friendliness Index to monitor the progress of States on investment friendliness and competitive and cooperative federalism by promoting reforms and featuring a conducive investment ecosystem.

The following is the reproduced article from page 12 of the July 18, 2026, edition of The Hindu BusinessLine:


Best box office year likely as gross collections grow to ₹6,398 cr in H1

Meenakshi Verma Ambwani
New Delhi

Indian box office collections have continued their strong growth in the January-June period. According to data for the corresponding period last year, it can easily beat the grossing first half of any year post Covid-19 pandemic, as the movie business continues to recover. Gross box office collections in the first half of 2026 reached ₹6,398 crore, compared to ₹4,398 crore in the first half of 2025.

RECORD YEAR

Grossing over ₹6,000 crore, 2026 is the highest grossing first half in the last five years in terms of gross collections, contributing nearly 20 per cent to the total Indian box office in the first half of the year.

Kalki 2898 AD, Manjummel Boys, Shaitaan, Munjya, Bade Miyan Chote Miyan, Premalu and The Goat Life are in the top 10 in terms of gross box office collections in the first half of the year.

This year, the cumulative box office for January-June releases reached ₹6,398 crore, making it the highest-grossing first half of any year post the pandemic, surpassing the ₹5,417 crore earned in H1 2025. Cumulative box office includes gross collections for movies released in 2025.

STEADY FLOW

In June alone, domestic box office collections stood at ₹1,038 crore, incited mostly by the speed of collections of June releases still running in theatres. Four out of six months in 2026 have crossed more than ₹1,000 crore, indicating a steadier flow of collections. Last year, the Ormax Media report noted, only one month emerged as the ten-grossing month.

With several big-ticket releases slated for H2 2026—including Pushpa 2: The Rule, Singham Again, The Greatest of All Time, Baby John, Bhool Bhulaiyaa 3, Welcome To The Jungle, Game Changer, Kanguva, Ramayana: Part 1, Stree 2 and Devara—the second half of the year is also anticipated to be robust.

“Over the last three years, 2026 is on track to cross the ₹15,000 crore mark, which will make it the best-ever year at the Indian box office. The current record stands at ₹11,395 crore in 2025,” the Ormax Media report stated.

FILM LANGUAGE

While there was a growth in the number of films that crossed ₹100 crore, the number of ₹100 crore films declined from 17 to 15.

Language-wise, Hindi cinema was the top contributor, as indicated by the increasing share of the box office. The top 15 films accounted for 64 per cent of the total collections in H1 2026 compared to 58 per cent in H1 2025.

THEATRE FOOTFALLS

Meanwhile, cinema footfalls reached an all-time high. Footfalls were estimated at 37.8 crore in H1 2026. This was because of decline and stagnation, particularly for Hindi cinema, driven primarily by Hindi and Marathi films,” the report added.

The record for highest annual footfalls was established in 2024 at 94.3 crore. With several big ticket films lined up, the report noted that 100 crore footfalls cumulatively in 2026 seems achievable.