Famous quotes

"Happiness can be defined, in part at least, as the fruit of the desire and ability to sacrifice what we want now for what we want eventually" - Stephen Covey

Monday, October 26, 2026

Newspaper Summary 271026

 "Why India’s warming winters need more attention".

The core themes and economic arguments typically raised in discussions around India's warming winters include:

  • Beyond Extreme Summers: While intense heatwaves and erratic monsoons capture public and policy attention, rising temperatures during the cooler months often fly under the radar.

  • Economic and Agricultural Impacts: Milder winters disrupt the chill-hour requirements of certain Rabi crops (such as wheat and horticulture), lower energy demand for heating where applicable, and alter pest dynamics, impacting overall agricultural productivity and rural incomes.

  • Public Health and Energy Dynamics: Warmer winters shift disease vectors, affect energy grids, and modify seasonal health vulnerabilities across different demographic groups.

  • The Policy Blindspot: The piece emphasizes the urgent need for researchers and policymakers to factor winter warming trends into long-term climate adaptation frameworks, rather than focusing solely on summer extremes.

The Long Shadow of 'Zombie Firms' on India Inc

1. What is a Zombie Firm?

  • Definition: A "zombie firm" is defined as a non-financial company that is unable to generate sufficient operating profit (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes, or EBIT) to cover its interest expenses—maintaining an Interest Coverage Ratio (ICR) below 1—for three or more consecutive years.

  • Survival Mechanism: Rather than going bankrupt, these companies remain afloat on cheap credit, debt roll-overs, asset sales, equity dilution, or creditor leniency.

2. Trends in India Inc

  • Post-Pandemic Shift: Following the low-interest-rate regime and pandemic relief measures, the share of distressed and unproductive firms rose globally and in India.

  • Recent Moderation: Recent data shows the proportion of zombie firms among listed Indian corporates has gradually moderated from around 8.1% (in 2017) down to ~5.5% (in recent readings), primarily supported by deleveraging, strong corporate balance sheets, and robust earnings growth in key sectors.

  • Persistent Risk: Despite the overall decline in percentage terms, a lingering segment of capital-starved, heavily indebted small and mid-cap firms continues to lock up real capital and financial resources.

3. Economic Impact & Key Concerns

  • Capital Misallocation: Zombie firms lock up labor, bank credit, and physical capital that could otherwise flow toward more productive, innovative, and competitive companies.

  • Productivity Drag: Unviable firms tend to cut prices recklessly to maintain short-term cash flow, underinvest in R&D, and drag down the overall growth potential of the sectors they inhabit.

  • Refinancing Risks ("Maturity Wall"): As global and domestic interest rates adjusted following the cheap-money era, companies facing debt maturities must refinance at significantly higher borrowing costs, threatening lower-tier firms that failed to repair their balance sheets.

4. Policy & Resolution Takeaways

  • Role of IBC (Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code): Speedy resolution of non-viable assets under the IBC is critical to prevent debt drag and liquidate genuine zombies.

  • Bank Credit Quality: Indian banks' clean-up of Non-Performing Assets (NPAs) over recent years has mitigated systemic risk, but monitoring distressed corporate loans remains essential to prevent fresh zombie congestion.


Which countries trust science


 

Rebuilding Ukraine’s Future: How Stronger Vocational Qualifications Can Power Reconstruction and Recovery

 As Ukraine looks toward reconstruction, economic modernization, and eventual European Union accession, one critical piece of the puzzle often flies under the radar: Vocational Education and Training (VET).

A newly released policy paper from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), titled "Strengthening vocational qualifications to support Ukraine’s reconstruction and long-term recovery," dives deep into how reforming Ukraine's vocational qualification system can bridge the gap between education, labor market demands, and international standards.

Here is a breakdown of the key insights, challenges, and actionable policy levers highlighted in the OECD report.

The Urgent Need: Why VET Qualifications Matter Now More Than Ever

VET qualifications act as the bridge between education systems and the labor market, certifying that workers have the exact knowledge, skills, and competencies demanded by employers. For Ukraine, these qualifications are much more than educational credentials—they are vital policy instruments for:

  • Economic Reconstruction: Rebuilding critical infrastructure requires a rapid influx of skilled labor in construction, engineering, IT, and green/digital sectors.

  • Labor Market Integration: Addressing severe labor shortages, population displacement, and supporting return migration.

  • EU Integration: Aligning Ukrainian standards with European transparency tools like the European Qualifications Framework (EQF) to ensure international portability and mobility.

However, Ukraine's VET system has faced severe compounding pressures. Between 1991 and 2021, the number of VET institutions dropped from 1,246 to around 710, with enrolment falling sharply. Since 2021, the full-scale Russian invasion has further damaged educational infrastructure, displaced learners and staff, and interrupted practical training.

5 Priority Policy Levers for Systemic Reform

To make qualifications more flexible, modular, and trusted across Europe, the OECD report outlines five core policy recommendations:

1. Managing Qualifications Through Recognised Modules

Ukraine already possesses strong foundational blocks like occupational standards and modular structures. The key is to operationalize them. By breaking full qualifications down into clearly defined components or modules, the system can update specific sets of competencies without requiring a complete overhaul of entire study programs.

2. Timely and Proportionate Updating of Qualifications

Currently, introducing or revising a vocational qualification in Ukraine can take anywhere from 12 to 24 months—even when market changes affect only a narrow set of tasks or technologies. The report advocates for differentiated update pathways, including regulated fast-track procedures for urgent competence needs tied to safety, digitalization, and reconstruction.

3. Strengthening Sectoral Collaboration and European Alignment

Employer engagement is crucial. Ukraine's Sectoral Qualifications Councils (SQCs) need to be made more operational and representative, ensuring small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have a voice. Simultaneously, advancing alignment with the EQF and improving national qualification registers will drastically improve the international comparability of Ukrainian skills.

4. Coherently Integrating Micro-Qualifications

Short, targeted learning offers have emerged organically as pragmatic responses to urgent skill gaps. However, their relationship to full and partial qualifications remains ambiguous. Establishing clear quality-assurance principles and connecting micro-credentials to recognised modules will prevent fragmentation while maintaining high standards.

5. Enhancing Assessment Credibility and Recognition of Prior Learning (RPL)

While Ukraine's network of Qualification Centres provides a solid institutional framework, regional and sectoral differences in assessor capacity can create inconsistencies. Professionalizing assessors, standardizing methodologies, and expanding the Recognition of Prior Learning (RPL) will cement public and employer trust in certification outcomes.

Looking Ahead

Ukraine's vocational education reform is a masterclass in a broader global challenge: how to maintain trust and quality while making educational systems agile enough to weather technological disruption, displacement, and shifting economic landscapes.

By shifting toward modular designs, empowering sectoral partnerships, and embracing European transparency frameworks, Ukraine can transform its VET system into a powerful engine for long-term recovery and growth.

Sunday, October 25, 2026

Newspaper Summary 261026

 

Mint Primer: Are India's tech workers ready for the AI era?

By Samiksha Goel

India faces a demand-supply gap of over 3.5 times for specialized artificial intelligence talent as firms deploy the technology at scale. Compensation is, therefore, shifting from tenure and job titles to depth of AI expertise, as per industry reports. Mint takes a closer look.

1. Where is the gap most pronounced?

The shortage spans both the number of professionals available and the specific skills in demand.

  • Quacquarelli Symonds (QS) / Industry Estimates: Estimates indicate India will need 1.4 million AI professionals by 2026, against an available pool of 400,000. It also flags shortages in adjacent roles like DevOps, cloud architecture, and data engineering.

  • TeamLease Report: Identifies cloud as having the widest supply gap (55–60%) among four high-value skills—AI, data, cloud, and cybersecurity. Generative AI follows at about 55%, with demand for talent expected to exceed one million roles by 2026. The gap in cybersecurity is 25–30%, narrowing but still significant.

2. Why can't universities fill the shortfall?

University degrees don't necessarily translate into job-ready skills. TeamLease Digital’s report points to growing demand for specialized skills such as building AI systems, integrating them into business workflows, and managing the underlying infrastructure.

Traditional curricula can struggle to keep pace with rapidly evolving technologies and may not provide enough exposure to real-world deployment. Revising courses and developing practical, industry-relevant training takes time, leaving companies to play a larger role in preparing workers through specialised programmes and reskilling.

3. Which sectors are seeing the greatest disruption?

AI adoption is hitting financial services, retail, IT, healthcare, and logistics hardest:

  • Banks use it for fraud detection and risk modeling.

  • Retailers for inventory and pricing.

  • IT firms for GenAI automated coding and testing.

  • Healthcare providers for medical imaging.

  • Logistics players for route optimization and warehouse management.

4. Are salaries rising as well?

The shortage of specialized, job-ready talent is driving pay up, though gains vary by role.

  • Quacquarelli Symonds reports 30–50% salary increases in specialized tech roles.

  • TeamLease Digital notes entry-level AI-Core roles (GenAI, machine learning) command 2.5–3 times the pay of AI-Support roles, with projected growth of 16–20% through FY28 versus 7–8% for support functions.

  • Senior professionals combining technical depth with architecture, governance, security, or domain knowledge command even higher premiums.

5. What does this mean for the tech industry?

The talent crunch could reshape how tech companies hire, train, and deploy workers. Employers must compete aggressively for experienced talent while investing heavily in internal reskilling initiatives.

This shortage could widen the divide between AI builders and AI support staff, impacting pay and career progression. Over time, it will force companies and institutions to rethink training as traditional qualifications become a less reliable measure of workplace readiness.


Weak monsoon prompts NBFCs to curb rural lending

NBFCs turn cautious as risks threaten farm incomes, consumption and repayment capacities

By Subhana Shaikh

subhana.shaikh@livemint.com

MUMBAI

Non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) are turning cautious on rural lending as deficient monsoon rainfall and El Niño-related drought risks threaten farm incomes, consumption and borrowers' repayment capacity, prompting lenders to tighten monitoring and moderate disbursements in vulnerable areas.

Shriram Finance, Mahindra Finance, L&T Finance and HDB Financial Services flagged concentrated risks in drought-hit parts of western and southern India during their September quarter earnings calls. While the lenders reported no broad-based deterioration in rural credit quality, they signalled a more cautious approach as weak rainfall weighs on cash flows.

The 2026 southwest monsoon ended at 87% of the long period average (LPA), the weakest rainfall since 2015. The emerging rural stress comes at a time when consumer demand has remained resilient despite the West Asia crisis. However, the persistent uncertain geopolitical environment, rising crude oil prices and the impact of El Niño are fuelling price gains, threatening farm incomes and rural purchasing power.

India’s headline retail inflation rose to 5.54% in September from 4.83% in August, while food inflation accelerated to 7.74% from 5.57%.

India’s largest retail asset financier by assets under management (AUM), Shriram Finance has lowered its FY27 AUM growth guidance to 15–17%, from 18% earlier, citing the impact of a weak monsoon and uncertainty in certain geographies. Its AUM stood at about ₹3.20 trillion at the end of September, up nearly 17% year-on-year. "Basically, because of the impact of the monsoon, we are a little cautious in certain geographies. That is the main reason to give a conservative number," Umesh Revankar, executive vice-chairman of Shriram Finance, said during the September earnings call on Saturday.

Revankar said Maharashtra, Karnataka and Telangana were among the worst-hit states, where the company has a sizable presence. He also said that lower agricultural output could weaken incomes, consumption and economic activity, leaving some borrowers struggling to pay instalments on time.

The company's gross stage 3 assets rose to 4.65% in July–September, from 4.64% a quarter ago and 4.57% a year earlier, and gross stage 2 assets rose to 7.04% from 6.96% a quarter ago and 6.92% a year ago. Credit cost as a share of total assets increased to 2.03% from 1.68%, with management attributing the stress largely to seasonal factors and deficient rainfall in certain regions.

Revankar said the stress was not widespread and the company's long-term credit cost guidance remained at 2%, though costs could temporarily rise by 30–40 basis points in select geographies and products.

Under the expected credit loss framework, the Reserve Bank of India classifies loans into three stages: Stage 1 covers performing loans with no significant increase in credit risk, Stage 2 includes loans where credit risk has risen significantly, and Stage 3 comprises credit-impaired loans, generally those overdue by more than 90 days.

"Next two quarters could be challenging for the rural economy due to deficient monsoon. It could have ramifications for asset quality, particularly for NBFCs whose customers are largely self-employed. Microfinance, unsecured business loans and, to some extent, tractor financing could face pressure," said Jinay Gala, director, India Ratings and Research. "The stress may not show up immediately, but we could see further pressure on asset quality from December onwards."


Capital shifting from secondary markets to IPO pipeline

By Srishti Vaidya

srishti.vaidya@livemint.com

MUMBAI

Capital is actively shifting from the secondary market into a massive ₹3 trillion primary market pipeline, as investors reallocate liquidity toward initial public offerings (IPOs) and qualified institutional placements (QIPs) amid a subdued broader market, according to Madhu Lunawat, founder of The Wealth Company Mutual Fund.

Speaking to Mint, Lunawat pointed out that while retail investors are chasing liquidity in small- and mid-caps to beat a perceived personal inflation rate of 10–12%, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remain cautious due to elevated valuations, currency depreciation, and lack of strong exposure to private banks.

“With capital continuing to flow into India, Lunawat said foreign investors are managing portfolios around Indian companies that offer reasonable valuations and profitable growth, noting that companies growing at 60–20% are relatively rare in the Indian market.”

Edited excerpts:

Global and domestic corrections

Global and AI tech stocks are seeing a correction, but we are not seeing a meaningful inflow in foreign institutional investor funds towards India. Why is that, and would this attract change?

The Indian market is highly priced at home-high-growth stocks are available at attractive valuations, but investors are shying away from buying them. At the same time, the expensive stocks continue to attract significant interest, which has made valuations difficult to justify.

In India, companies growing at 60–75% are far less common. Those that do achieve such growth may be low-margin or trade at extremely high valuations.

For foreign investors, the challenge is finding high-quality Indian companies that are reasonably priced and capable of sustaining strong growth.

Currency depreciation and retail behavior

They also need to account for currency depreciation, which is a major concern. The rupee has depreciated by around 4–5% over the past year, making valuations even more expensive.

Average investors are already heavily invested in retail, and deal flows are locking, leaving limited growth for wealthy individuals around where they have built substantial positions historically. Until they find more rewarding investment opportunities in India, they would rather wait them to increase their exposure to domestic equities.

We are already facing deflationary pressures because of high crude prices and the possibility of El Niño affecting agricultural output. Do you see inflation as a major risk for the markets right now, or are there bigger structural risks?

Supply-side shocks do not necessarily cause sustained inflation. They are often temporary and tend to correct over time. The more important structural issue is currency depreciation. Sustainable inflation can ease relatively quickly. Commodity prices may rise sharply and subsequently correct, but that is not necessarily the underlying structural design.

IPO pipeline and FII caution

How do you see these factors affecting the markets?

The impact is not fully reflected in the market because yields have not risen proportionally. Individuals may feel that their personal inflation rate is around 10–12%, while yields are closer to 7%. As a result, investment returns may not adequately compensate them for the inflation they experience.

This also helps explain the substantial flows into small- and mid-cap funds. Investors seeking higher returns may find that large-cap companies are not delivering sufficient growth to justify significant price appreciation. Small- and mid-cap companies, on the other hand, offer greater perceived growth opportunities, attracting capital even at higher valuations.

How do you view the current IPO pipeline? We have seen strong subscription numbers for large IPOs recently, even though the broader market has been relatively subdued. What explains this contrast?

The amount of money in the system is relatively fixed, although some broader parts around 5.7% [sic] capital is simply moving from one pocket to another. Money is flowing out of the secondary market and into the primary market through IPOs and other capital market activities. Investments into recent offerings suggest that funds, which could be sold relatively quickly from other segments of the market, are being reallocated for upcoming IPOs.

This assumes significance as there are nearly ₹2 trillion worth of Seeli-approved IPOs in the pipeline. There is nearly ₹3 trillion IPOs worth over ₹3 trillion that have been filed with sebi and are waiting for approval.

If this bears more than a year since you began operations, what have you seen so far?

When we started, we were clear that we would follow the distributor-led model rather than the direct route. We have not faced the redemption conundrum that other funds industry because of our distribu-tion-led model. While the market has been through uncertain times, like now, we have stood strong beside them and this model has worked well for us.

Initially, we were hesitant to build brick-and-mortar offices, but we managed to open 11 and tier-1 [sic] and tier-2 locations. We intend to expand our presence and professionalize institutional investor action. Opening offices in smaller cities has helped us build scale. Also, we launched a dedicated fund manager in our first year along with a specialized investment fund-raise.

You have been encouraging investments through mutual fund distributors. How does participation look now?

We have trained 20,000 distributors so far. It is still low in the total pool of MFDs throughout the country, but it will increase. When we started scaling, we soon realized 90% of the distributors did not have websites of a LinkedIn account. Most relied primarily on Facebook. These training programs helped them build their digital presence.

We also launched a 'lite' course for wealth and financial planners. The traditional CFP preparation typically takes 18–24 months to complete and can be expensive for smaller distributors. Our programme focuses on practical skills that are often not focused on our NISM (National Institute of Securities Markets) curriculum, such as conducting portfolio reviews, behavioral coaching, asset allocation strategies. We are actively working towards improving various aspects related to MFDs, including tech-nology access, scalability, and service quality that would be the best value for the investment community.


Wow! Momo to raise ₹300 crore

The company plans restaurant expansion ahead of IPO

By Shramana Ganguly

feedback@livemint.com

NEW DELHI

Quick-service restaurant chain Wow! Momo Foods is preparing to expand overseas while lining up a ₹250–300 crore fundraise to fuel its restaurant business in India, ahead of a potential initial public offering (IPO) in the next 18–24 months.

The Kolkata-based company is seeking to build a larger business across restaurants and packaged foods, with international markets offering growth opportunities for both.

The company, which operates Wow! Momo, Wow! China and Wow! Chicken, plans to enter Sri Lanka by the end of 2026 through a master franchise partnership with local entity Softlogic Corp. The partners plan to open about 25 outlets in the country over the first three years. Softlogic will fund the outlets and local production, while Wow! Momo will earn fees and royalties and provide operating support, co-founder Sagar J. Daryani told Mint.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is the next market under consideration for the restaurant business, through a local partner. The US and China are longer-term targets, with entry being considered by fiscal year 2030.

Global Expansion

  • THE company plans to enter Sri Lanka by end-2026, opening about 25 outlets over three years.

  • ITS packaged-food arm, Wow! Momo FMCG, plans to enter five more countries in the next 12 months.

Its packaged-food arm, Wow! Momo FMCG, already sells products in four countries. It plans to expand into the US, Malaysia, Australia, Thailand and Canada over the next 12 months, Daryani said.

The FMCG business currently contributes 12% of the company's overall business, generating about ₹20 crore a month, he said. The company expects its share to rise to 20% by the end of the year. FMCG is also more profitable than the restaurant business, Daryani said.

Mint has learnt that Wow! Momo has planned a ₹250–300 crore fundraise to finance its restaurant expansion in India. The founders could participate in the round alongside incoming investors.

The proceeds will support new store openings and working capital, as well as the repayment of some debt. The company has previously indicated that it would consider a potential IPO before the end of 2028.

The firm expects its international business, combining restaurant operations and FMCG exports, to exceed ₹100–120 crore in revenue in 2–3 years. FMCG is growing at about 100% annually, albeit on a smaller base, compared with 20–23% growth in the restaurant business.

Daryani did not comment on the proposed fundraise or the IPO plans.

The firm expects to close FY27 with revenue of approximately ₹1,050 crore, driven by expansion across its restaurant and retail businesses.

Wow! Momo reported revenue of about ₹830 crore in FY26, up from ₹530 crore in FY25, according to its latest available data. It currently operates around 860 outlets across its three restaurant brands and expects to end FY27 with about 910 outlets, before accelerating openings in FY28. The company has raised about ₹625 crore since its inception.

For an extended version of this story, go to livemint.com.


The Saudi airline that launched right in the middle of a war

Violence aimed at civilian aviation has roiled a company that hoped to be a major lever in the kingdom's long-term economic ambitions.

By The Wall Street Journal

Just days after a missile hit King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, the nascent startup Riyadh Air found its operations completely upended. Launched as a cornerstone of Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification and tourism push, the carrier instead found itself navigating active conflict zones and severe threats to civilian aviation infrastructure.

Immediate Operational Disruption

Houthi missile and drone attacks targeting the Saudi capital forced Riyadh Air to urgently evacuate its fleet from King Khalid International Airport to safeguard its aircraft. With the capital's airspace and primary hub facing heightened security risks, the airline had to suspend most of its scheduled flights, derailing its carefully planned launch timeline.

To maintain some level of operational continuity, the carrier temporarily shifted portions of its operations to Al Qassim Airport—located roughly a four-and-a-half-hour bus ride from Riyadh. Passengers and staff faced immense logistical hurdles as the airline scrambled to reroute flights and manage ground operations away from the main theater of disruption.

Ambitions Meets Geopolitical Reality

Backed by the Public Investment Fund (PIF), Riyadh Air was envisioned as a world-class global connector designed to rival established Gulf heavyweights like Emirates and Qatar Airways, bringing millions of tourists and business travelers directly to the kingdom.

However, the eruption of regional hostilities and direct aerial threats to major Saudi transport hubs have exposed the vulnerabilities of launching a massive aviation startup during a period of acute geopolitical instability. While state backers remain committed to the long-term vision of transforming Riyadh into a global aviation nexus, the immediate priority has shifted from rapid expansion to security management, fleet protection, and mitigating passenger disruptions.


France dodges dept of riots, looting with tougher security

The government deployed 70,000 security officials, including elite anti-terror forces

By feedback@livemint.com

PARIS

Ransacking avoided a repeat of large-scale violence and looting that marred native-wide protests a week ago, suggesting the government’s decision to boost police numbers caution matches paid off.

About 110,000 people took part in a largely peaceful demonstration confined to the edge of Paris on Saturday and another 300,000 turned out across the country, according to the Interior Ministry. The CGT union put the figure at 800,000.

Some scuffles broke out, especially near a unauthorized demonstration, with hundreds of masked individuals demonstrating a truck acting on security personnel, who used tear gas and water cannon to disperse crowds.

While the number of arrests lowered, the police was again high. Interior Minister Laurent Nunez said authorities were able to prevent the looting of shops and damage to buildings soon on Oct. 17, he blamed the clashes on a minor group of ultra-left-wing actors trying to "start and finish the uprising."

"All the warning signs were there and we decided to a police significant presence," he said late on Saturday. "We took all proper posture looks and destroyed the days ahead weeks to stop this to that threat, because it is a threat."

A total of 1,314 people had been arrested by Sunday morning, about "calm night," the Interior Ministry said in a statement, about half the number compared with last week-end.

The government deployed some 70,000 security officials, including elite anti-terror forces, after being caught flat-footed a week ago, when nationwide demonstrations drew more than half a million people and prompted widespread lawlessness. Rioters attacked public buildings and broke into stores across the country, including in the capital, as well as fighting with police and setting fire to cars. French President Emmanuel Macron, the target of much of the anger, on Thursday acknowledged “planning failings and elements of surprise.”

For the latest protests, soldiers were brought in to guard sensitive buildings, and helicopters armed with vehicles known as Centaurs were made available on Saturday. Some cities banned protests and extended curfews.

Museums including Paris's Louvre were closed, while many shops were boarded up. A football match scheduled for later between and Olympique Lyonnais in Paris was postponed.

The protest movement began last month with high schoolers blocking establishments, calling for more teachers, repairs to buildings and an end to Parcoursup, a computerized college admissions system-postponed.

Nathaniel Contat, of the Renouveau Lycee high school union, which is due to meet with Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu on Tuesday, said residents were ready to continue demonstrating in the absence of concrete measures.

"The period of dialogue has lasted long enough," he told Sunday newspaper La Tribune Dimanche. "We now expect action."

One site has already called for another-demonstration on Oct. 31, while labor unions are calling for a major day of strikes and protests on Nov. 5. The CGT pledged to expand the movement until its demands are met.

"The anger is immense, and our determination is even greater," the CGT said in a statement. "The government and employers must urgently respond to our demands."

Backed by a disparate group of social media figures, students, unions and left-wing parties, Saturday’s demonstrations were framed as an "Acte II," or second round, of the movement, which still has majority support in polls.

An Ipsos-BVA-Céfré-École d’ingénieurs survey for Le Parisien published on Saturday showed that, so far, far-right candidate Marine Le Pen is still firmly in the lead ahead of next April's presidential election, the far-left Melenchon unbound leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has also received a boost from the unrest and stands in second place, ahead of various centrist competitors. The poll of 1,500 adults-taken online on Oct. 21 and Oct. 22.

Mélenchon has been blamed by political rivals for stoking tensions, even as he has avoided the police of violence and called on Macron to give in to the movement's demands or risk facing wider socioeconomic conditions.

The unrest has come amid concerns about France’s public finances that has pushed a already wounded gauge of bond yields to last seen during the euro-zone debt crisis.

The bloc’s second-biggest economy dodged a downgrade at Moody’s Ratings late on Friday, but the company warned that the widespread protests "could constrain fiscal consolidation efforts."

Furthermore, gross domestic product data for the quarter through Sept. 30 is due on Friday. Analysts expect expansion of just 0.1% after zero growth in the previous quarter, adding to the fiscal challenge faced by the European Union.

Protests continued elsewhere in Europe over the weekend too. About 100 people were arrested in Barcelona while thousands marched in cities across Italy amid a heavy police presence, wire reports agency reported. Albania's capital of Tirana continued to be rocked by demon-strations against its prime minister.

Protesters burned containers, vandalized shops, and threw stones at police in the area around Catalunya Square in central Barcelona. About one-quarter of those detained were minors. Prime Minister, the London head of security, and Jaime Collboni, said Wednesday-second-line of aid, said at a joint press conference.

Rising bond yields put gilt fund managers at a critical crossroads

Fund managers are divided on locking in yields or waiting for further rises amid rate hikes and high crude prices

By Janak Joshi

janak.joshi@livemint.com

MUMBAI

Global bond yields are rising, leaving Indian gilt fund managers to choose between locking in yields at a high level and waiting for a better entry point. The US 10-year Treasury yield is near 5%, up from 4% a year ago, while Brent crude has traded firm around amid West Asia supply concerns, stoking inflation risks. India’s 10-year government bond yield hit 7.44% on October 21, its highest in three-and-a-half years, up from 6.78% in mid-August and 6.54% a year ago. Rising US yields, crude prices and expectations of monetary tightening have added to the pressure.

Higher yields are attractive to investors, but depressing bond price, hurting debt funds. Gilt funds NAVs fell about 2.5% since mid-August (as of 21 October), leaving fund managers divided between buying gradually and waiting for yields to settle further.

The case for investing now

The case for investing rests on the view that yields are attractive and much of the expected monetary tightening is priced in. "Yields at close to 7.45-7.5% are a good entry point. But investors should enter in a staggered manner and not put the entire sum in at one go, as allova is still uncertain on where it is heading. We don’t know where the top will be," said Joydeep Sen, corporate trainer and debt-market analyst.

While short-term yields are steady, the long end is more vulnerable. Over the last 25 years, the average spread between the repo rate and the 10-year g-sec yield has been about one percentage point. Today, it is almost double that. Even with RBI hikes further, the 10-year yield may not move up too much, since it is already in denser new-to-neutral zone," Sen observed.

On 7 October, RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.2% and shifted its stance to "calibrated tightening". Longer-duration portfolios are more exposed to rising yields because their bond prices are more sensitive to interest-rate changes. However, holding investments over a longer period can help offset short-term losses through interest income and reinvestment at higher yields.

"Staying invested for a period close to a fund's duration, typically over a 7-9 year horizon can help reduce the impact of volatility. When holding period is longer, the effects of interest rate movements largely cancel out. If yield rise, the fund's NAV falls in the short term, but the fund reinvests its interest income and maturing bonds at higher yields, which makes up for the loss over time. So, it remains ends up close to the yield at which you entered. And if yield levels normalise, you also stand to benefit from capital appreciation. Yield of close to 7.5% is a good level to lock-in for those with a long investment horizon," Ashish Chaddha, a registered investment adviser, said.

Past returns give some support for long-term case. A mint analysis of gilt funds since 2005 found that no holding period of five years or longer delivered a negative return. Minimum returns were 3.3% over seven years and 4.5% over 10 years. Average returns were at 7.2% to 7.8% across holding periods of one to 10 years. Maximum returns were 11.9% in seven years and 10.4% in 10. Nippon India Mutual Fund’s Sudh Balhia, senior fund manager-fixed income, said much of the negative news is priced in. "With RBI changing its stance to calibrate tightening, we expect three more 25-bps hikes, taking repo rate to 6.20%. A part of this rate hike cycle is built into the current 10-year yield. Yields may remain in a narrow corridor of 15-20 basis points and not much too much higher from where they now are," he said.

The case for caution

Other fund managers expect yields to rise further before stabilizing, potentially offering investors a better entry point. "Yields have gone up quickly. You may see a retirement if at all of 15-13 bpsto 7.30%, but it may not sustain. A lot of these issues need to be sorted out before yields can come down meaningfully," said Sumantand Godane, fund manager at DSP Mutual Fund.

Murthy Nagarajan, head of fixed income at Tata Asset Management, does not expect the 10-year yield to fall below 7.25% soon.

"The capex cycle in India is strong and rates are high globally. A foreign investor earning 5% in the US will not come here for 7.25-7.5% if you factor in rupee depreciation of another 3%," Nagarajan said.

Currency-market volatility has also pushed firm line-drawings in yields towards domestic markets, tightening liquidity. Nagarajan expects RBI to raise repo rate to 6%, with inflation staying above 5% and the Eighth Pay Commission adding to demand. "It is better to be at short end and earn the 8% accrual available here," he said. Bond supply is also a concern, Government borrowing, corporate debt loan (SDLs), corporate bond issuances are adding to the securities the market must absorb, while deposit mobilisation remains a challenge for banks.

"Issuance of state development loans (SDLs), corporate bond issuances, together with the central government must absorb, debt-pool mobilization than the market has demand for, which will add to the upward pressure on yields," Godane said.

Net government estimates put borrowing of ₹15.59 trillion for FY27.

Budhia, however, believes a moderation in crude and the currency is not banged back in to the bond market. "Current credit growth of 17-18% could be temporary, reflecting higher working capital needs to support trade and oil price-related issues. Mean reversion in credit growth to more manageable levels will bring back some demand into bonds."

Summing it up, investors should think if the market absorbs more of the capital needs now, tightening "The rate hike cycle has judged once. More acceleration and capital flow is and people start wondering whether capital is here to stay longer, that is when you can start to inverse. If markets would have priced in a lot of the argument by then, then it's a hope trade that the dollar and US yields will come down," he said.


Based on the column "Tax Data Can Tell Us Much About India's Income Skew" by Madan Sabnavis (page 13 of the provided newspaper source), income tax data from the latest available year (2023–24) reveals a stark income disparity and distribution across different groups of taxpayers.

Here is how the income skew and population are distributed across various slabs:

1. The "Getting By" Group (Income under ₹5 Lakhs)

  • Share of Taxpayers: Just under 50% of the taxpayer population.

  • Share of Income: Only 21% of total declared income.

  • Context: This group largely manages finances carefully after covering fixed expenses like rent. Given their lower disposable income, their marginal propensity to consume is lower in a relative sense, though they form a massive segment of the population.

2. The "Aspiration" Group (Income ₹5–10 Lakhs)

  • Share of Taxpayers: 37%.

  • Share of Income: 30%.

  • Context: This segment shows a high degree of symmetry between population share and income share. With strong spending power at the macro level (though minimal at the micro level), this group is the primary target for consumer goods manufacturers, operating largely as a "volumes game".

3. The "Fast-Growing" Group (Income ₹10–15 Lakhs)

  • Share of Taxpayers & Income: Combined with the rich group, these groups represent a smaller tier. Specifically, those earning ₹10–15 lakhs have higher disposable income (since those earning up to ₹12 lakhs may pay little to no tax) and form an ideal target for sellers of goods and services.

4. The "Very Rich" Group (Income ₹50 Lakhs to ₹1 Crore)

  • Share of Taxpayers: Less than 1%.

  • Share of Income: Around 5.6%.

  • Context: This category represents an intermediate phase of wealth accumulation, moving toward satiation and focusing on housing and higher education for children.

5. The "Affluent" and "Super-Affluent" Classes (Income ₹1 Crore to ₹10 Crores and Above ₹10 Crores)

  • Share of Taxpayers: Just 0.3% of the population.

  • Share of Income: A little over 10% of total income.

  • Context: Combined with the very rich, less than 2% of taxpayers account for 21% of the total income. For this top tier, basic needs are fully satiated, but they drive the "premium effect" for producers—demanding larger vehicles, ostentatious homes, and luxury lifestyle experiences.

Overall Takeaway

The data highlights a wide disparity in consumption power. While the lower tax brackets ("getting by" and "aspiration") hold immense volume, their individual spending power is limited, whereas a tiny fraction of elite taxpayers command a disproportionate share of total income, creating a heavily skewed purchasing landscape for businesses.