Newspaper Summary 280326

 

Centre cuts special additional excise on petrol, diesel by ₹10

DUTY REVISION. No change in retail prices; windfall gain tax reintroduced for refiners

Shishir Sinha / Rishi Ranjan Kala — New Delhi

Offering relief to oil marketing companies (OMCs) amid rising crude oil prices due to the West Asia conflict, the Finance Ministry on Friday reduced the special additional excise duty (SAED) on petrol and diesel by ₹10 per litre with immediate effect. Simultaneously, the government reintroduced the windfall gain tax on export-bound diesel and aviation turbine fuel (ATF) by refiners.

However, there is no change in the retail prices of petrol and diesel. Additionally, there will be no reduction in the devolution pool for States as the basic central excise duty remains unchanged.

The government estimates a net loss of ₹5,500 crore in the first fortnight after adjusting for windfall tax gains. While official estimates for the full year have not been provided, economists expect the annual net loss to the exchequer to be between ₹1.5 lakh crore and ₹1.7 lakh crore. The decision to revise the duty structure followed a meeting convened by the Prime Minister on Thursday.

PROTECTING CONSUMERS

“The government had two options — either pass on the increase to consumers (by way of an increase in the petrol and diesel prices) or take a hit (by cutting the excise duty). The government chose the latter,” Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said.

She further noted that duties have been levied on diesel exports at ₹21.5 per litre and on ATF exports at ₹29.5 per litre. Vivek Chaturvedi, Chairman of the Central Board of Indirect Taxes & Customs, explained that the windfall tax on exports is expected to generate approximately ₹1,500 crore in the first fortnight, while the government will forgo over ₹7,000 crore in revenue due to the excise duty cut. This results in the projected net loss of ₹5,500 crore.

EXPORT RATIONALE

Chaturvedi explained that the surge in international prices had incentivized refiners to prioritize exports. The levy of the export tax aims to ensure the availability of fuel for domestic consumption. This tax will be reviewed on a fortnightly basis to align with prevailing market rates.

Furthermore, the government has mandated that domestic refiners supply 50 per cent of exported petrol and 30 per cent of exported diesel to the domestic market.

FISCAL BURDEN

Madhavi Arora, Chief Economist of Emkay Global, stated that the move would help absorb 30-40 per cent of the annualized losses OMCs are facing on auto fuel at current prices. She estimated the annualized fiscal hit to the government at ₹1.55 lakh crore due to this burden-sharing.

DK Pant of India Ratings & Research provided a slightly higher estimate, suggesting that if the excise duty remains at this level throughout FY27, it could cost the government ₹1.70 lakh crore.

Kerala should have gained most from GST but gets low compensation, says VD Satheesan, Leader of the Opposition

bl interview

Chitra Narayanan / V Sajeev Kumar — New Delhi / Kochi

Kerala’s Opposition leader and senior Congressman VD Satheesan says the party is ready with an economic plan to lift the State out of its severe financial crisis. “For the first time, an Opposition has done its homework and prepared alternative programmes for the future to combat the failures of the present government,” he said, stressing that the public will see a puthuyuga (new age) Kerala.

Edited excerpts:

Are you confident that UDF will win 100 seats? We will come back with 100-plus seats. That is our prediction, and it is on the basis of history. In almost all the States, the Opposition has been losing byelections, but we won here in Kerala with double, triple margins in all byelections. We also won the elections to the local bodies. In the Parliamentary election, we won 18 out of the 20 seats. First, there is a huge anti-incumbency sentiment. Second, we have been exposing the government for a long time on its failures.

At the same time, two years ago, for the first time in India, an Opposition started to research and work on alternative programmes. Our promise is that wherever the government fails, we will give you alternative projects.

What are these alternative programmes? Our narrative has been that in healthcare, Kerala is on the ventilator. We conducted a health conclave in 2025, in which more than 300 doctors from India and abroad participated, and then we presented a very good health document. In higher education, our narrative was that brain drain is happening in Kerala and within five years, Kerala will be an old age home. Then we produced a very good report on how to prevent the large exodus by improving our education systems. Our assessment is that the nature of jobs has been changing across the world. So, corresponding to that, we have to restructure the curriculum.

For start-ups, too, we have prepared a very good document that talks of providing management mentors, techno mentors and a revolving fund. We have talked of dream projects such as coastal shipping. We have a 600-km-long coastline and two international seaports, one container terminal and 17 mini ports. We have declared that we are going to start coastal shipping and cruise shipping. Then we have four international airports, two of which are under the government. We will start 27 aviation projects if we win.

What about attracting investments to the State? We are inviting ideas; we want to showcase more than 1,000 projects in various sectors. Investors will be treated as state guests, as will the NRIs, the backbone of the Kerala economy through the remittances they send. 10 per cent of the NRI remittances will be channelised for infrastructure development through PPP projects; the government will only be a facilitator.

But Kerala is almost bankrupt, how will you restore the coffers? I have made a presentation as the leader of the Opposition before the 16th Finance Commission. The commission appreciated it because of the homework we have done. The number one plan is to introduce a planned tax administration, then we will cover all the leakages from the Treasury; then we will stimulate the economy through projects.

Kerala is a consumer State. It should have been the number one beneficiary in India for GST. Unfortunately, we are getting very low compensation.

Do you think Sabarimala will be a central issue in this election? It will be a major issue because 2019 onwards gold pilferage was happening, and the court has clearly mentioned that the dwarapalaka idols were sold to a millionaire. The CPM and the government have protected all three senior leaders involved in the issue and have not taken any disciplinary action against them.

Everyone wants to know who will be chief minister if the UDF comes to power... That is the narrative of the CPI(M) because you know in Karnataka and Telangana, there was no chief ministerial candidate. After the Karnataka election, Siddaramaiahji became the CM. Similarly, Revanth Reddy became the CM in Telangana. We are united. We are working together.

So, will the selection be from Kerala or the high command? It will be from the high command after taking the opinion of the elected MLAs. That is the procedure. For the last several years, the Congress has not projected any chief ministerial candidate anywhere in India.

This factor of the Gandhi family representing Wayanad in Parliament — how much will this help UDF in State politics? It will help a lot. Because Malayalis like the Gandhi family very much. They treat both Rahulji and Priyankaji as their children.

The five guarantees that Rahul Gandhi announced — where are the funds for that? The insurance scheme is very good because in our health document we made it clear that Kerala is the number one State when it comes to high out-of-pocket expenses. That is why we have examined the insurance scheme implemented by the Rajasthan government when Ashok Gehlotji was Chief Minister. It was a very good project. As for free bus rides for women, I don’t think that after one year, there will be any burden on the government side; we also have a plan to make KSRTC self-reliant.

Grim future for world economy

DHANANJAY SINHA

The global economy is vacillating between sharply swinging narratives from the US administration under President Donald Trump and responses from Iran. Markets have reacted with volatility, oscillating between expectations of an imminent ceasefire and fears of prolonged confrontation. Investors are struggling to price in the long-term implications beyond immediate headlines.

In the immediate term, the announcement of a five-day war interregnum (now extended to 10 days) from the US side has provided some respite for markets. Yet it remains uncertain whether this pause can evolve into a lasting amicable resolution.

Historically, the US has rarely accepted outright submission in armed operations of this nature. The current context makes any decision to de-escalate even trickier, as America stands at a critical inflection point where its global hegemony, both economic and geopolitical, is visibly eroding. The stated objectives of the operation in Iran, including regime change, full control over nuclear capabilities, and access to oil reserves, remain largely unfulfilled. Given the asymmetric nature of the conflict, Iran retains leverage through its ability to disrupt oil supplies and maintain elevated prices, using these as bargaining tools to extract concessions.

Even in a scenario of quicker de-escalation, disruptions to crude and gas supplies, along with damage to infrastructure in the Strait of Hormuz region, will take considerable time to repair. Consequently, it is reasonable to assume that oil prices may remain elevated for longer than many market participants currently anticipate.

Irrespective of how the war fares, efforts to combat the growth and inflation fallouts are likely to be actively considered. Wars have historically been followed by lagged economic rebounds, often fuelled by substantial government spending on reconstruction, infrastructure, and defence.

However, in the current environment, such efforts face significant headwinds from peak levels of public debt and the pressing need for higher defence budgets, which constrain fiscal space for other forms of stimulus. Stagflation is imminent, with demand compression and recession as a likely outcome.

Borrowing costs have risen due to structural factors including declining global savings rates and early signs of de-dollarisation pressures, while bond markets demand higher risk premiums for sovereigns with record debt burdens.

According to the Institute of International Finance (IIF) Global Debt Monitor, global debt surged by nearly $29 trillion during 2025, pushing the worldwide total to a record $348 trillion. Of this increase, advanced economies accounted for the majority, with governments (both in advanced and emerging markets) contributing a substantial share. Continued fiscal expansion and regulatory adjustments are expected to drive further debt accumulation, raising legitimate concerns about long-term sustainability.

In the US, the public debt-to-GDP ratio has climbed to approximately 122 per cent as of late 2025. Commitments to defence, infrastructure, and entitlements leave limited room for additional stimulus without pushing yields higher and crowding out private investment.

Similar constraints appear elsewhere. The Eurozone’s average debt-to-GDP stands near 90 per cent, while the UK’s ratio is about 105 per cent. Japan leads with a ratio exceeding 250 per cent. China’s official figure hovers around 80 per cent, but including significant hidden local government obligations paints a more strained picture. Emerging markets average 65-70 per cent, though outliers such as India (around 85.5 per cent, or ₹325 lakh crore by FY27E) and Brazil (near 90 per cent) face tighter margins.

With the Iran conflict potentially anchoring oil prices in the $90-100 range for an extended period, governments may prioritise targeted measures such as energy subsidies and elevated defence budgets, necessitating further borrowing.

NARROW POLICY OPTIONS

In India, policy challenges confronting both fiscal and monetary authorities are formidable. Central and State government debt combined could approach ₹325 lakh crore (around 83 per cent of FY27 GDP estimates), with the Centre’s debt alone reaching ₹214 lakh crore in FY27E, nearly four times the level of FY14. The budgeted fiscal deficit for FY27 stands at ₹17 lakh crore, while the combined Centre-plus-States figure may reach ₹29-30 lakh crore, leaving scant room for counter-cyclical stimulus. The additional ₹9-10 lakh crore annual oil import burden will ultimately be distributed across industries, oil marketing companies, households, and government budgets through some combination of higher prices, subsidies, and taxes.

Rising subsidy demands and increased allocations for defence and livelihood support will necessitate difficult expenditure trade-offs. For the RBI, pre-existing challenges have been magnified. Despite substantial liquidity injections and rate cuts, 10-year G-sec yields have firmed to around 6.85 per cent, while the rupee has weakened to record lows near 94 against the dollar. India’s current account deficit could exceed $100 billion in FY27E under sustained $100 oil, approaching the FY08 peak. Persistent declines in foreign investment flows could result in a balance of payments deficit for a third consecutive year, potentially reaching 3.3 per cent of GDP (a two-decade high).

CLOUDY MARKET OUTLOOK

Indian equity markets are navigating elevated uncertainties surrounding corporate earnings, capital flows, and valuations. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have been net sellers of around $43 billion in equities since September 2024. Domestic institutional flows into equity mutual funds have shown resilience, aggregating $59 billion over the period. However, systematic investment plan (SIP) data indicates that the number of outstanding SIPs has stagnated since October 2024, while participation from affluent segments has grown as smaller investors face negative returns.

Resilient domestic flows have not fully offset FPI outflows, resulting in valuation compression: the Nifty’s trailing price-to-earnings multiple has fallen 14 per cent from September 2024, to around 20x. Should FPI retrenchment continue, falling valuations and moderating retail enthusiasm could exert sustained downward pressure.

An optimistic scenario might involve a sudden halt to hostilities due to massive economic costs, but such outcomes appear low-probability at present.

The writer is CEO and Co-Head of Equities & Head of Research, Systematix Group. Views are personal.

FMCG firms coping with surging raw material costs

Meenakshi Verma Ambwani — New Delhi

One month into the West Asia conflict, the FMCG industry is coping with surging packaging costs due to rising crude oil prices and rupee depreciation. Rationalising of commercial LPG has also had some impact on production for some sectors. In categories such as edible oils, packaged water and paints, players have already begun taking price hikes. Others said if the conflict continues, calls on price hikes will need to be taken by later next month.

A senior industry executive said, “Packaging material prices have gone through the roof. PET resin prices have now gone up to ₹143 per kg and is expected to cross ₹150 per kg by next week. This coupled with the rupee depreciation could mean the situation will worsen. Some price hikes have already been taken by the packaged drinking water industry; such a ₹18 pack is now priced at ₹20. Prices may need to be hiked again if things worsen”.

Meanwhile, Asian Paints, Berger Paints and Kansai Nerolac have already announced price hikes. Analysts believe paint players are likely to take a second round of price hikes if higher crude oil prices persist. Edible oils players have also had to take price hikes due to heightened costs. Shrikant Kanhere, MD & CEO, AWL Agri Business said, “The edible oil prices are closely linked to crude oil. Due to the West Asia conflict, all the imported edible oil prices are already up by 10-15 per cent across the board and so that price increase is already reflecting”.

FRESH HEADWINDS

A report by BNP Paribas noted that FMCG companies had seen improvement in demand trends in Q3 FY26 and were well poised for sustained growth in the coming 4-6 quarters. However, the West Asia conflict has led to fresh headwinds leading to concerns about rising costs, export order cancellation and LPG gas availability, it added.

Mayank Shah, Vice President of Parle Products, said, “Higher crude oil prices have led to higher packaging costs. Price of commercial LPG has also gone up and since there is rationing there have been some challenges. We are using alternatives wherever possible in our plants but there has been some impact on production on some lines. So, if all these issues persist, we will have to take a call on price hike towards the end of April or early May”.

Shah said that the packaged food industry has also urged the government that in terms of allocations for commercial LPG, packaged food manufacturing plants should be considered essential.

Indian airlines face headwinds, ICRA revises outlook to negative

WAR IMPACT. West Asia is an important market for Indian carriers and cancellations will impact revenue, says an expert.

Aneesh Phadnis — Mumbai

Indian airlines continue to face a double whammy of revenue loss arising from flight cancellations and increased expenses due to airspace closures and extended flight durations. Indian carriers are currently not operating to Bahrain, Doha, and Kuwait, while offering only limited services to Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Geopolitical tensions have resulted in the further weakening of the rupee, and domestic jet fuel prices are expected to witness a sharp price revision starting April 1.

OPERATING PRESSURES

IndiGo has stated it may need to recalibrate its capacity as the operating environment remains fluid. The airline reported a material escalation in operating costs, with fuel and forex-related expenses expected to increase substantially. “While we have introduced a fuel surcharge to compensate for some of this cost, this and other fare increases required will have an effect on demand,” IndiGo stated.

An aviation expert noted that West Asia is a critical market for Indian carriers, and the current cancellations will significantly impact revenue. This disruption occurs during what would typically be a busy travel season driven by Eid holidays in West Asia and school and college vacations in India.

OUTLOOK REVISION

Rating agency ICRA on Friday revised its outlook on the Indian aviation industry to negative from stable, citing intense cost pressures and downside risks to demand. ICRA now expects domestic air passenger traffic growth for FY26 to be between 0-3 per cent. International passenger traffic growth for Indian carriers is projected at 7-9 per cent, indicating a relatively weak near-term demand environment.

ICRA’s earlier growth forecasts for FY27, which were formulated prior to the West Asian conflict, had estimated domestic air passenger traffic growth at 6-8 per cent and international growth at 8-10 per cent. However, the rating agency stated that these projections now carry a significant downward bias.

Valley bets big on homegrown tulips

Nabard-backed project aims to curb ₹300-400 cr annual imports

Gulzar Bhat — Srinagar

At the Mountain Crop Research Station (MCRS) in the Valley, efforts are being stepped up to cultivate tulips and develop seeds locally to cut import dependence. Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology (SKUAST-K) is setting up a Centre of Excellence for Tulip and Bulb Production at Sagam in Anantnag, about 76 km from Srinagar. Scientists aim to propagate tulips and supply seeds and bulbs to gardens.

The project, backed by the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (Nabard), focuses on land and infrastructure development. “The idea is to reduce dependence on imported tulip bulbs,” said Mohammad Ayoub Mantoo, Head, MCRS, adding that India spends an estimated ₹300-400 crore annually on tulip bulb imports, underlining heavy reliance on overseas suppliers.

TOURISM BOOST

The garden — now the Indira Gandhi Memorial Tulip Garden — sprawling across 74 acres at the foothills of the Zabarwan range, draws lakhs of visitors each spring.

Officials say developing indigenous varieties and scaling local bulb production can cut costs and stabilise supply. Research institutions in Kashmir are actively working toward this goal.

Trump extends deadline for striking Iran’s energy plants to April 7

NO END IN SIGHT. US President says talks with Tehran ‘going very well’; Iran maintains stance of no engagement

Reuters — Dubai/Tel Aviv/Washington

US President Donald Trump said he would again extend a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face the destruction of its energy plants, after Tehran earlier rejected a 15-point US proposal to end the fighting.

The war has spread across the Middle East, killing thousands of people and hitting the global economy with soaring energy and fertiliser prices that have fuelled inflation fears. On Thursday, Trump threatened during a cabinet meeting at the White House to increase pressure on Iran if it did not make a deal. He later posted on social media that he would pause threatened attacks on Iranian energy plants for 10 days until April 6 at 8 pm (0000 GMT on April 7).

“Talks are ongoing and, despite erroneous statements to the contrary by the Fake News Media, and others, they are going very well,” he added in his Truth Social post.

PAKISTAN MEETING

Iran has said it is not engaged in talks with Washington. Trump has not specified who the US is purportedly negotiating with in Iran, where many high-ranking officials have been killed in the war.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul told Deutschlandfunk radio that he had information that “there have been indirect contacts, and preparations have been made to meet directly”. “That would be very soon in Pakistan, apparently”. Pakistan, which has good relations with Iran, passed on Washington’s 15-point proposal, and is willing to host meetings.

On March 23, Trump announced a halt to all threatened strikes against power plants and energy infrastructure for five days. In Thursday’s post, he said he had announced the new pause in response to an Iranian request, although there was no immediate reaction from Tehran.

IRAN’S RESPONSE

Iran has said it will respond with its own strikes on energy facilities in the Gulf region if Trump follows through with his threat. Iran has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20 per cent of global oil and liquefied natural gas, driving up energy prices and roiling financial markets.

Millions of civilians in the region rely on electricity to power their cities and supply fresh water from desalination plants. Strikes on three buildings in the Pardisan area of Qom, south of Tehran, killed at least six people, Iranian media reported. In Tehran, rescue workers from the Red Crescent pulled a survivor from rubble. In Urumia, in the north-west, a direct missile strike on a housing complex killed and injured several civilians, with rescue operations continuing, Iranian media said.

IRANIAN ARRESTS

In the west Iranian province of Kermanshah, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had arrested a three-member cell linked to Israel’s Mossad spy agency that had planned attacks on sensitive sites and military personnel, Iranian media reported. In the central province of Isfahan, authorities arrested more than 15 people alleged to work for the foreign-based Iran International and Manoto TV networks, which state media describe as Israeli-affiliated.

Brace for $200 per barrel oil if the war lasts till June, warns Macquarie

Bloomberg

Crude oil may hit a record $200 a barrel if the Iran war drags on till June, with the Strait of Hormuz staying shut, Macquarie Group Ltd has said.

A conflict that stretches through the second quarter would result in historically high real prices, analysts, including Vikas Dwivedi, said in a note, outlining a scenario with odds of 40 per cent. An alternative outlook, with a probability of 60 per cent, suggested the war may finish at the end of this month, they said.

RECORD MONTHLY RISE

Brent crude is on pace for a record monthly gain in March, as the war between the US, Israel and Iran has rocked the oil-rich Middle East. The conflict has seen Tehran oversee a near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, severely restricting flows of energy that are vital to the global economy.

“If the Strait were to stay closed for an extended period, prices would need to move high enough to destroy an historically large amount of global oil demand,” the analysts said in the March 27 report. “The timing of the re-opening of the straits, and physical damage to energy infrastructure, is the main determinant of the longer-term impact on commodities”.

Brent was last near $107 a barrel on Friday, after touching $119.50 earlier this month. The benchmark set a nominal peak of $147.50 in 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

China launches tit-for-tat probes against US trade ahead of Xi-Trump summit in May

Bloomberg

China started a pair of investigations into US trade practices, retaliating against similar probes by the Trump administration as the superpowers stake out positions before an expected presidential summit in May. The move, announced by the Ministry of Commerce on Friday, is a direct mirror of steps US President Donald Trump took to revive his tariff agenda after the Supreme Court last month struck down some of his duties.

“China expresses its strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to these actions,” a Commerce Ministry spokesperson said in a statement, referring to the so-called Section 301 investigations initiated on March 11. The Chinese measures come days after the White House said Trump will travel to China in mid-May to meet with President Xi Jinping for a summit delayed by the US conflict with Iran.

POWER PLAY

The attacks on Iran, a diplomatic partner of China, brought new strains to US-China ties, although both governments have sought a path of engagement. Relations are also dogged by lingering issues including China’s record trade surplus and US arms sales to Taiwan, a self-ruled democracy China claims as its territory. Beijing hasn’t yet confirmed Trump’s visit to China.

Each of the new investigations carries a six-month deadline, with a possible three-month extension, giving Beijing a legal justification for leverage. One such probe was brought separately against Mexico...

Newspaper Summary 270326

 Based on the sources, here is the full content of the article regarding Iran’s decision to allow specific nations access to the Strait of Hormuz:

Iran allows 5 nations, including India, passage via Strait of Hormuz

Iran has permitted India and several other “friendly nations,” including China and Russia, to use the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping, according to Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi. This decision follows a surge in global oil and gas prices after Iran virtually blocked the strategic waterway, which typically handles roughly 20 per cent of global oil and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG).

Key Details of the Passage:

• Permitted Countries: Along with India, China, and Russia, Iran has granted transit rights to Iraq and Pakistan.
• Exclusions: Minister Araghchi made it clear that ships linked to Iran’s adversaries and their allies will not be allowed to transit the waterway, stating, “We are in a state of war. The region is a war zone”.
• Stance on Negotiations: Araghchi noted that while various messages have been exchanged through intermediaries, no direct negotiations with the U.S. are currently underway. He added that “international guarantees are not 100 per cent reliable” and that Iran has created its own "inherent guarantee" to deter future conflict.

Economic and Regional Implications:

• Energy Security: The Strait is a vital corridor for India’s energy procurement. The government has recently asserted that India’s energy supply remains secure, with sufficient crude oil stocks and secured LPG cargoes to last for the coming months.
• Transit Fees: Jasem Mohamed al-Budaiwi, Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), has accused Iran of charging fees for ships to safely transit the strait. Al-Budaiwi, who oversees the bloc including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, is the first top official to make such an accusation publicly.
• Global Impact: The effective closure of the Strait for many nations has caused what is described as the "worst energy shock in history," impacting businesses worldwide from airlines to supermarkets. In response to the crisis, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to interact with state Chief Ministers to review national preparedness.

Based on the sources, here is the article regarding the sponsorship announcement for the upcoming IPL season:

JioStar announces 27 sponsors for IPL 2026

Vallari Sanzgiri – Mumbai

JioStar, the official broadcaster for TATA Indian Premier League (IPL), has announced 27 sponsors for 2026, with Google, Campa, and Havells & Lloyd serving as the co-presenting sponsors. This follows the exit of real-money gaming brands like Dream11 and My11Circle in August 2025; since then, the league has engaged with new entities including Google Search AI Mode and Campa Energy.

AI as a Category Google’s entry into the lineup marks AI as a specific category in Indian cricket advertising. Joining the co-presenting sponsors at the co-powered tier are Birla Opus, Hero MotoCorp, and Amazon.in.

JioStar also announced an extensive list of associate sponsors, which includes:

• AMFI, Asian Paints, Vimal Elaichi, SuperMoney, and MRF.
• Flipkart Minutes, Gillette, Vida, Rupay, and Mondelez.
• Mother Dairy, Groww, Rapido, Muthoot Finance, and Sunfeast YiPPee!.
• Google Pay, TVS EV, Angel One, and Campa Sure.

Additionally, Amul will be presenting the Cricket Live show, while Google Search AI mode is presenting the Match Centre Live show.

Anup Govindan, Head of Sales – Sports at JioStar, noted that the IPL remains an "incredibly compelling proposition" for brands. He stated, “What’s particularly encouraging is that this confidence has held firm even against a challenging global macroeconomic backdrop; the commitment our partners have shown is a powerful testament to the unmatched value the TATA IPL on JioStar network delivers.”

As AI demand rises, IT turns to strategic, high-value deals

Sanjana B – Bengaluru

Indian IT firms are pivoting toward larger, strategic acquisitions as mergers and acquisitions (M&A) rebounded in 2025. Companies such as Infosys are using these deals to reposition growth and build next-generation capabilities, specifically in response to rising enterprise demand for AI-driven transformation and a slowdown in traditional services.

Market Data and Deal Breakdown: According to data from UnearthInsight, IT M&As reached a total of $5 billion across 21 deals in 2025:

• Tier 1 Firms: Contributed $2.32 billion, primarily led by cloud and data (27 per cent), followed by AI and analytics (18 per cent).
• Tier 2 Firms: Slightly surpassed Tier 1 at $2.43 billion, with 40 per cent of deals focused on AI, analytics, and enterprise platforms.
• Tier 3 Firms: Remained marginal at $0.31 billion, driven largely by domain-led engineering (80 per cent).

By volume, the deal mix was dominated by cloud, data, digital engineering, and ER&D (Engineering Research & Development), which accounted for six transactions each. Enterprise platforms saw three deals, while AI and advanced analytics recorded two.

Strategic Drivers: Gaurav Vasu, CEO & Founder of UnearthInsight, explained that Indian IT firms are choosing M&A as a faster route to build next-gen capabilities rather than developing them organically. This shift is driven by the need for relevance rather than just scale. Sidhant Rastogi, President at Zinnov, noted that the organic growth engine has been under pressure for nearly three years, leading to a natural M&A window created by cash-rich balance sheets on the buyer side and compressed valuations for sellers.

Client Demand for Deployment: As clients move from mere AI experimentation to full enterprise deployment, they require partners capable of delivering an integrated stack of data, cloud, and AI engineering. While building this stack organically can take three to four years, acquiring it takes only three to four months. Ultimately, these firms are using M&A to rebalance their portfolios toward transformation-led work and gain access to high-value talent in key global markets.

‘India-China discord blown up by those who hope to profit from it’

Amiti Sen – New Delhi

China’s Ambassador to India, Xu Feihong, stated that differences between India and China are being deliberately amplified by individuals who "hype up" a "China-threat" narrative to profit from the discord., Speaking at the 4th China-India Youth Dialogue, the Ambassador emphasized that as neighbors that "cannot be moved apart," the two nations should choose to be "good neighborly friends and partners" who support each other's success.,

Key points from the Ambassador’s address:

• Eastern Wisdom vs. Law of the Jungle: He called for both nations to apply "Eastern wisdom" regarding peaceful coexistence and mutual learning to prevent the world from "reverting to the law of the jungle."
• A "Dig" at Global Alliances: The Ambassador’s remarks are interpreted as a critique of the United States and the Quad alliance, which have been working to "balance" China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
• Championing the Global South: Cautioning that the world may be slipping into "lawlessness," Feihong urged for stronger communication and coordination between India and China to protect the legitimate rights and interests of the Global South.
• Improving Relations: He noted that following meetings between President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Kazan and Tianjin, bilateral relations have shown "positive progress" in cooperation across various fields.
• Technology and Innovation: Feihong highlighted China's global leadership in innovation—ranging from humanoid robots to AI video models—and acknowledged that India has made artificial intelligence a national priority through its India AI mission.

The Ambassador concluded by encouraging young people to think independently and "step out of the information cocoon" amidst a complex and rapidly changing global landscape.

Tax on mobile data usage isn’t a good idea

By Mohan R Lavi

The government is reportedly examining a new levy on mobile data consumption—a flat charge of ₹1 per GB—and has tasked the Department of Telecommunications with submitting a feasibility report by September 2026. While the proposal serves the dual purpose of augmenting telecom revenues and curbing digital addiction among children, these objectives do not justify the tax, which appears Constitutionally vulnerable and practically unworkable.

The Revenue Rationale and Double Taxation The projected revenue from this levy is significant; based on the approximately 229 billion GB of mobile data consumed in FY25, a ₹1 per GB charge would generate around ₹22,900 crore. However, this constitutes double taxation because consumers already pay an 18 per cent GST on every mobile recharge. Introducing a usage-based levy outside the existing GST architecture raises questions about which power Parliament would use to enact it, as a flat charge with no regulatory quid pro quo fits neither the description of a service tax nor a fee.

A Blunt Tool for Behavioral Concerns Using taxation to reduce screen time among children is a problematic approach. Taxation is a blunt tool that falls with equal and indiscriminate force on everyone, regardless of usage. If digital addiction is the concern, appropriate instruments would be regulatory, such as age verification mechanisms, content restrictions, or parental controls mandated under the Information Technology Act. Levying a general tax on the entire population to address the behavior of a subset is disproportionate and could be challenged under Article 14 of the Constitution.

Reversing Digital Democratisation This proposal threatens India's significant digital achievements. Over the last decade, India has built a widely envied ecosystem of affordable data and deep network penetration. A consumption tax would effectively reverse this "data democratisation" by pricing out marginal users for whom digital access is still aspirational.

Policy Contradictions and Global Context There is also a notable policy anomaly: while this tax would discourage consumption, Budget 2026 offers a tax holiday until 2047 to foreign cloud companies to position India as a global digital hub. Furthermore, most other countries targeting the digital economy for revenue focus on the earnings of large technology platforms—like Google and Meta—rather than taxing the consumption of ordinary citizens.

Better Alternatives Rather than creating new and legally fragile imposts, a better course would be to rationalise the existing levy structure on telecom operators, such as spectrum usage charges and license fees. If digital addiction is a genuine public health concern, Parliament already has the tools within the existing statutory framework to address it without innovating new methods of taxation.

The writer is a chartered accountant.

Based on the sources, the following text is found under the "OTHER VOICES" section:

The Social-Media Shakedown Begins

A Los Angeles jury on Wednesday held Meta Platforms and Google’s YouTube liable for a 20-year-old woman’s personal troubles. The schadenfreude will be overwhelming—nail the billionaires! But using a novel product liability theory to shake down companies won’t help young people and isn’t a good way to make law. The $6 million verdict against the two companies is the first of more.

Tablet PC market up 2% with Samsung leading the chart, Apple supplies drop

Press Trust of India – New Delhi

India’s tablet PC market grew by 2 per cent year-on-year in 2025, with Samsung leading the segment while Apple and Acer recorded a dip in shipments, according to a Counterpoint Research report.

Shift Toward Premiumisation Counterpoint Research principal analyst Anshika Jain noted a clear shift towards premiumisation in the Indian market, driven by strategic product refreshes. The ₹30,000-₹40,000 price band emerged as the fastest-growing segment, with shipments rising nearly seven times as consumers increasingly preferred higher-performance devices.

Brand Performance Breakdown:

• Samsung: Retained its market leadership with a 31 per cent market share in 2025 (up from 27 per cent in 2024). Its supplies grew by 15 per cent year-over-year, anchored by the Galaxy Tab A9 series and its successor, the A11 series, as well as the premium Galaxy Tab S portfolio.
• Apple: Ranked second with a 20 per cent market share, despite a 2 per cent year-on-year decline in supplies. The iPad (2025) 128 GB Wi-Fi variant was a key driver in the premium ₹30,000-₹40,000 band, while the iPad Pro series accelerated OLED penetration in the high-performance segment.
• Lenovo: Captured a 15 per cent market share, clocking 24 per cent growth in supplies.
• Xiaomi: Held an 11 per cent market share following a massive 74 per cent jump in shipments.
• Acer: Saw a significant decline, with supplies dropping by 50 per cent. This led its market share to plummet to 10 per cent in 2025 from 21 per cent in 2024.

CSK’s unlisted shares surge as franchise sales spur demand

Rohan Das – Chennai

The big-ticket buyouts of IPL teams Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) and Rajasthan Royals (RR) have sparked a surge in investor interest in other franchises, leading to significant price hikes in unlisted markets. As the only actively traded IPL stock in the unlisted space following its demerger from India Cements, Chennai Super Kings (CSK) has been the primary beneficiary of this sentiment.

Rapid Price Appreciation The Chennai franchise’s share price rose from approximately ₹225–₹240 at the beginning of March to ₹300–335 recently, marking a 25–40 per cent increase in under a month. Data from InCred Money also confirmed monthly growth of 24 per cent, while the price has effectively doubled from its 52-week low of ₹174. Additionally, UnlistedZone reported a sharp spike on March 23, immediately following a large-scale pre-season fan event.

Benchmarking and Market Valuation The increased demand is driven by the record-breaking valuations of its peers:

• Rajasthan Royals is set to be sold for a reported $1.63 billion to a consortium led by Kal Somani.
• RCB was acquired for $1.78 billion by a group including the Aditya Birla Group, the Times Group, and Blackstone.

Krishna Patwari, Managing Director of Wealth Wisdom India, noted that at a market cap of ₹11,000–₹11,500 crore, CSK is trading at a 30 per cent discount to the RCB benchmark. This discount is likely due to the absence of a clean controlling stake and a more dispersed ownership structure. However, the scale of the price movement suggests that the shares are being scooped up not just by retail investors, but also by institutional players and High Net-Worth Individuals (HNIs).

Financial Strength CSK's financial performance remains robust, with the franchise reporting revenues of ₹643 crore and a profit after tax of ₹180 crore in FY25. For comparison, RCB's revenue for the same period was approximately ₹504 crore. This positive sentiment has extended to other companies linked to IPL teams; for instance, Sun TV (Sunrisers Hyderabad) rose 5.4 per cent, while RPSG Ventures (Lucknow Super Giants) hit its upper circuit with a 20 per cent gain.

British Airways adds extra flights to Delhi, Mumbai

Our Bureau – Mumbai

British Airways will operate additional flights from London to Delhi and Mumbai until the end of May. The airline is adding this short-term capacity to meet strong demand and provide customers with greater choice and flexibility for travel between India, the UK, and beyond. These extra services are being introduced amid continued flight disruptions in West Asia.

Flight Schedule Details:

• Delhi to London Heathrow: From April 7 to May 31, the airline will operate a third daily service.
• Mumbai to London Heathrow: A third daily flight will be added between April 14 and May 31.

Lights, camera, action: Kerala set for a star-studded poll battle

V Sajeev Kumar – Kochi

The 2026 Assembly election is set to feature one of the largest line-ups of film and television personalities in recent electoral memory, with actors, anchors, and filmmakers stepping into the fray in Kerala across party lines. From mainstream cinema figures to television celebrities, political parties appear to be betting on recognisable faces to expand outreach beyond their traditional support bases and inject visibility into closely fought constituencies.

New Strategy The entry of figures such as Vivek Gopan reflects a calculated strategy of leveraging familiarity to generate media traction and attract undecided voters. Yet, in a politically aware State such as Kerala, celebrity appeal alone has rarely guaranteed victory; constituency arithmetic, party organisation, and local issues remain the deciding factors. KB Ganesh Kumar, representing Pathanapuram, is once again in the contest, despite facing a phase marked by personal controversies. His candidature underscores the persistence of established personalities who straddle both the entertainment and political spheres.

Television celebrity Akhil Marar has also drawn attention, though translating television fame into votes remains an uncertain exercise. In Ottappalam, Major Ravi is contesting on a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ticket. Known for his patriotic films and disciplined public persona shaped by a military background, his candidature aligns with the party's narrative, though he faces a challenge in a space dominated by the LDF and UDF. Anjali Nair, contesting as a candidate of Twenty20 (an ally of the BJP) from Thrippunithura, brings screen familiarity but her prospects may depend heavily on alliance dynamics and organisational grounding.

In Palakkad, Ramesh Pisharody, widely recognised for his comedic roles, is considered one of the more competitive celebrity bids in the State. In the capital city of Thiruvananthapuram, Sudheer Karamana is contesting as an independent candidate with support from the Left Democratic Front (LDF).

The Defining Factor Despite the star power, the need for sustained grassroots machinery remains a defining factor. Vivek Gopan, contesting as a BJP candidate from Aruvikkara, represents this strand of celebrity outreach in a district with a history of tightly contested elections dominated by established political forces. While he enjoys popularity among family television viewers, the effectiveness of this appeal at the ballot box remains to be seen.

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Europe running low on gas

Bloomberg

Europe is about to start the gas stockpiling season with key storage tanks depleted, meaning it will need to compete even more with Asian buyers to secure supplies, just as the Middle East conflict disrupts energy flows.

Dutch facilities are now just about 6 per cent full, the lowest for this time of year in data going to late 2010, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. In Germany, home to the region’s biggest sites, inventories are also much lower than usual, at about 22 per cent. The continent’s gas storage is in focus as the war in Iran has tightened global supplies and boosted prices. The war has come at a tricky time as Europe emerges from winter with storage tanks depleted, fuelling prospects that it will have to purchase more liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes this summer to refill them, vying with Asia for fewer available supplies.

The European Union’s energy chief has told member states to start filling gas storage early in order to avoid supply competition that could push prices up over summer. Governments should also lower their storage filling targets to 80 per cent and make the most of the flexibilities offered by EU law, Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen wrote in a letter.

Seasonal gas spreads have so far made it unprofitable to fill storage sites, but that’s starting to change. News of extensive damage to Qatar’s facilities pushed up longer-term gas contracts in Europe last week, which improved key seasonal spreads needed to encourage summer stockpiling.

Benchmark European gas futures have jumped more than 55 per cent since the war began. Europe’s total gas storages are about 28 per cent full, the lowest for the time of year since 2022.

Bernstein, UBS trim Nifty targets amid war worries

Madhu Balaji Bengaluru

Bernstein cuts Nifty 50 year-end target to 26,000, while UBS turns neutral

Heightened volatility and mounting headwinds prompted global and domestic brokerages to take a more cautious stance on Indian equities as the escalating West Asia conflict fuels crude oil volatility, inflation risks, and clouds the outlook for growth and corporate earnings. While most firms believe the domestic structural story remains intact, near-term market direction is seen hinging on the duration of geopolitical tensions, the trajectory of oil prices, and foreign capital flows, prompting several brokerages to pare index targets and reassess risk-reward.

‘GFC-LIKE RISKS’

Bernstein said the ongoing geopolitical shock could expose India’s macro vulnerabilities if elevated crude prices persist. It warned that a prolonged conflict could recreate conditions similar to the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Early warning signs are already visible, and a delay in rate cuts, weaker remittances from Gulf nations, and continued foreign investor outflows could strain the balance of payments and shave 3-4 per cent off GDP growth. The brokerage cut its year-end Nifty 50 target to 26,000, implying limited upside from current levels, and maintained a neutral stance on equities.

UBS also downgraded Indian equities to ‘neutral’ from ‘attractive’, citing rising macro vulnerability to energy supply disruptions and persistent price pressures. The brokerage said India’s heavy dependence on imported oil, LNG, and LPG left the economy exposed to geopolitical chokepoints, particularly the Strait of Hormuz.

OTHER BROKERAGES

Citi recently cut its year-end target for the Nifty 50 to 27,000 from 28,500, flagging rising risks to economic growth and corporate earnings. Nomura, too, slashed its December 2026 Nifty target by 15 per cent, bringing it down to 24,900 from 29,300. BNP Paribas warned that key macro indicators such as the balance of payments, fiscal position, inflation, and corporate earnings remain vulnerable to prolonged geopolitical stress.

In contrast, domestic brokerage Emkay Global staged a bullish perspective, maintaining its December 2026 Nifty target of 29,000 as it anticipates a sharp “peace dividend” bounce following any de-escalatory news. It expects India to be a major beneficiary of easing oil prices due to its heavy reliance on imported crude and projects Brent Crude to retreat to $75-80 per barrel. The brokerage added that domestic markets are poised for a smart recovery after recent foreign investor selling dragged the Nifty 50 lower, with easing crude prices and more reasonable valuations likely to attract flows back into equities. It expects the rupee and bond markets to strengthen alongside equities as investors quickly price in the peace dividend, even though real economic normalisation could take a few months.

Emkay Global cautioned that supply-chain disruptions and energy infrastructure damage may weigh on near-term earnings, estimating a modest impact on FY27 profits, with small- and mid-cap firms facing slightly higher but temporary pressure.

Big-ticket RCB, RR sale set to reshape overall valuation of the IPL ecosystem

Meenakshi Verma Ambwani New Delhi

The sale of Rajasthan Royals and Royal Challengers Bengaluru at whopping price tags is set to potentially re-shape the overall valuation of the Indian Premier League ecosystem. Analysts said not only does this mean an up-side in valuations commanded by other franchises but it also sets the stage for higher expectations from the next media rights auction cycle of the T20 league.

Experts also pointed out that while the valuation of the IPL ecosystem will surge, the gap between it and most valued leagues such as NFL remains, given the latter’s global appeal. Pointing out that this indicates strong global investor interest in IPL franchises as an asset class, Santosh N, Managing Partner of D&P Advisory, said, “Gujarat Titans last year was valued at about $1 billion and now Royal Challengers Bengaluru and Rajasthan Royals have been valued at $1.78 billion and $1.63 billion, respectively. I would say this is a gamechanger as it means every single IPL franchise today is worth over $1.5 billion. This milestone has been achieved in a shorter period of time compared to other global leagues.”

“The investors seem to be betting on a potential increase in the number of matches in the future, which will mean higher revenues for franchises. What is also critical is the assumption they are making about the commercials regarding the renewal of media rights for IPL. There is perhaps an expectation of a significant upside in terms of renewal of the media rights cycle, considering the media rights valuations has grown from about $2.5 billion to over $6 billion so far,” Santosh noted.

Ajimon Francis, MD, Brand Finance, said the transactions reflect the interest of global investors in leveraging brand IPL in other geographies beyond the Indian sub-continent. “Some of the franchises have already been focusing on developing an ecosystem through ownership of teams in international cricket leagues, and coaching and training operations, among others. That is just the tip of the iceberg and there is a lot more potential in terms of monetisation in the future. More valued leagues such as NFL, MLB and EPL have a viewership base across geographies with evolved structures. With the entry of these global investor-led consortiums, we believe IPL is also moving in that direction,” he said.

India’s energy choices have been sub-optimal

Under US pressure, it moved away from Iranian oil earlier. Such choices may have started to hurt Ritesh Kumar Singh

For years, Indian foreign policy has proudly invoked the doctrine of “strategic autonomy.” Yet as the Middle East crisis deepens in 2026, a sobering reality is emerging: New Delhi is paying a steep “appeasement tax” to Washington, while its primary regional rival, China, and its “all-weather” partner, Russia, reap the dividends of the chaos.

India imports roughly 85 per cent of the crude oil it consumes, leaving the economy deeply exposed to disruptions in global energy markets. Yet in recent years New Delhi has repeatedly aligned its oil purchases with pressure from the US — first by halting imports from Iran under sanctions and more recently by scaling back purchases of discounted Russian crude during trade tensions with Washington. India should respond with alacrity to limited waivers from the US to buy Iranian oil and should not voluntarily give up some of the cheapest and closest sources of energy while its competitors secure them.

SELECTIVE BLOCKADE

At the centre of the current crisis lies the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of global oil trade normally passes. Since the conflict escalated, Iranian forces have effectively turned the strait into a geopolitical filter. Attacks on commercial vessels and maritime disruptions have sharply reduced tanker traffic, forcing many ships to avoid the route altogether.

Yet the disruption has been far from uniform. While shipments from Gulf producers such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia face growing obstacles, Iranian crude continues to pass through the strait to China. Geography makes Iran one of India’s most natural energy partners, with Iranian ports lying barely a week’s sailing distance from India’s western refineries. By contrast, sourcing oil from the Atlantic basin — whether from Brazil or the US Gulf Coast — can require voyages lasting several weeks, leading to higher freight costs, higher insurance premiums, and larger inventories.

KREMLIN BENEFITS

Even as Washington signals flexibility through temporary waivers, India seems to be reacting cautiously, while Chinese buyers continue to purchase Iranian oil using non-dollar payment systems and shadow tanker fleets. Meanwhile, Russia clearly benefits from the chaos. Russia’s flagship export blend — Urals crude oil — which traded at steep discounts for much of the past two years, is now selling at a premium to Brent crude in deliveries to India as buyers scramble for alternatives.

The longer the conflict persists, the stronger Russia’s position becomes, while for India, the economic penalty increases. For India, turmoil in the Middle East carries consequences beyond crude prices, as the region is also one of India’s largest sources of inward remittances and a key export destination. Expensive oil feeds directly into inflation through transportation and logistics costs, while slowing trade and remittance flows can place additional pressure on the rupee. At some point, New Delhi must decide whether “strategic autonomy” is a slogan or a policy.

QED Investors keen to deploy $250-300 million in India

Our Bureau Bengaluru

QED Investors is sharpening its focus on India, committing to deploy $250–300 million over the next two fund cycles as it sees the market transition from a “story of promise” to one of tangible outcomes, backed by a maturing start-up and public markets ecosystem. The US-based fintech-focused venture capital firm, which has invested over $220 million across Asia-Pacific, counts India as its core geography in the region, with eight of its 14 investments anchored in the country.

“What has deepened our conviction is the quality of the ecosystem,” said Sandeep Patil, Partner and Head of Asia at QED Investors, pointing to a steady rise in technology IPOs and increasing participation from public market investors.

JEKYLL & HYDE

QED’s India thesis is underpinned by structural tailwinds and scaling financial services businesses. The investor is increasingly leaning into artificial intelligence as a core theme, even as it acknowledges the dual nature of the technology. “AI is a classic Jekyll-and-Hyde story in India,” Patil added, stating that while it can drive productivity, exports and innovation, it could also disrupt services employment and widen income disparities.

INDIA-BUILT

In fintech, QED sees AI unlocking opportunities across both enterprise and consumer segments. On the consumer side, conversational and voice-based interfaces could drive the next wave of adoption, particularly among users less comfortable with traditional app-based banking. The firm is also betting on the rise of “India-built, global-first” companies.

GLOBALLY EXPORTABLE

At the same time, QED remains cautious about regulatory risks. The firm said this makes it critical to back “regulatory-minded founders” who can navigate the evolving landscape. Going forward, QED plans to focus on high-ARPU segments, AI-native financial services, and scalable businesses.

‘Reforms driven by conviction, not compulsion; Budget backs middle class, MSMEs’

Our Bureau New Delhi

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday said the government is pursuing reforms out of “conviction” rather than compulsion, while asserting that the Budget for 2026-27 contains substantial measures aimed at the middle class and the MSMEs.

Replying to the debate on the Finance Bill in the Lok Sabha, which was later passed with 32 amendments, Sitharaman said the legislation reflects a clear reform philosophy and growth strategy. The Bill seeks to give effect to the Centre’s financial proposals for the financial year 2026-27.

“India is moving forward with reform not out of compulsion, which is what happened earlier, but out of conviction, with clarity, confidence and commitment,” Sitharaman said. She outlined five guiding principles of the Finance Bill: trust-based tax administration; ease of living for citizens; empowerment of farmers, MSMEs and cooperatives; strengthening India as a global business hub; and seamless trade facilitation alongside customs reforms.

PUBLIC DEBT PATH

Responding to criticism over rising public debt, Sitharaman said the government had laid down a clear glide path to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio to 50 per cent (plus or minus one per cent) by 2030-31. She noted that while the world's overall debt burden has increased 41 per cent since 2008, India had reduced its total debt burden by 4 per cent of its GDP. India’s combined debt-to-GDP figure is approximately 83 per cent and on a declining path.

MIDDLE-CLASS RELIEF

Rejecting opposition charges that the middle class had been overlooked, Sitharaman listed several measures:

• Reduction in Tax Collected at Source (TCS) on payments under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS) for foreign education and medical treatment.
• TCS on overseas tour packages cut to 2 per cent from 20 per cent.
• Customs duty exemption on 17 critical drugs and duty-free import of medicines for personal use.
• Permission to file updated income tax returns even after reassessment proceedings have begun.
• Introduction of a foreign asset disclosure scheme targeted at small taxpayers.
• Rationalization of tariffs on gifts and personal items at airports to reduce disputes.

GST AND DEMAND RECOVERY

Countering criticism that GST rate cuts in September 2025 had not yielded results, Sitharaman cited strong automobile sales data, with retail passenger vehicle sales recording a 26.1 per cent increase in February—the highest-ever for that month. She added that GST collections mirrored this recovery, with overall growth standing at 8.3 per cent for 2025-26. Tamil Nadu’s GST revenues specifically showed a sharp 18 per cent increase in February 2026 following the SGST settlement.

Civil society warns of ‘WTO reform capture’

Amiti Sen New Delhi

Civil society organisations across countries have warned that the “reform” push from developed countries at the WTO’s 14th Ministerial Conference (MC14), which opens today in Yaoundé, Cameroon, risks eroding the institution’s development mandate.

“Today, some of the key developed country members led by the US and the EU are attempting to hijack the stated objective of ‘reforming the WTO’ to push through a complete remake of the organisation into what promises to be an even more dangerous construct,” said a joint statement from 51 civil society organisations from various countries, coordinated by Our World Is Not For Sale (OWINFS).

The coalition warned that the proposals under discussion could dilute core principles such as non-discrimination, legitimise unilateral trade deals concluded under tariff pressure, and institutionalise decision-making through exclusive plurilateral arrangements dominated by major economies.

PRIME TARGET

“What is unfolding at MC14 is not reform — it is capture. We are witnessing the US and the EU using the language of ‘relevance’ to systematically strip developing countries of the policy space and flexibilities they have negotiated and bargained for. This process risks normalising coercion as a negotiating tool, while shifting agenda-setting power even further toward the interests of the world’s most powerful countries and largest corporations,” said Jane Nalunga, Executive Director of SEATINI.

Although competition from China is cited as the prime target, the statement noted that it is actually the poorer WTO members who will suffer most. The coalition expressed concern that through plurilateral agreements and the sidelining of developing countries’ own agendas, the WTO will become a platform for new rules that further constrain pathways for developing countries to achieve long-term sustainable development.

Another major concern is the push by developed countries to make permanent the moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions. Civil society groups argued that allowing this moratorium to lapse would restore much-needed fiscal space for developing countries.

While rejecting the current reform direction, the coalition is not defending the status quo. It instead called for:

• Strengthening special and differential treatment provisions.
• Securing a permanent solution on public stockholding for food security.
• Revisiting intellectual property rules to improve access to medicines and climate technologies.
• Restoring policy autonomy.

“The question is not whether the WTO needs to change — it clearly does. The question is whether the proposed changes address its failures or entrench them. On that test, they do not pass,” said Chee Yoke Ling, Executive Director of Third World Network.

No coercive action without hearing Meta: Delhi HC

Press Trust of India New Delhi

The Delhi High Court on Wednesday asked the Central Consumer Protection Authority (CCPA) not to take any coercive action against Meta Platforms Inc over any unauthorised listing on Facebook marketplace without giving the US-based social media giant an opportunity to present its stand. Justice Purushaindra Kumar Kaurav, while dealing with Meta’s petition against a CCPA order imposing a ₹10 lakh penalty on it for alleged unauthorised sale and listing of walkie-talkies on the Facebook Marketplace, said the platform cannot be penalised without a hearing.

Meta stated it was not permitting any listings for walkie-talkies on the marketplace but objected to the other “omnibus” directions to it, including ensuring that no other product requiring statutory approval or certification was listed or sold without due approvals.

LEGALLY EMPOWERED

The counsel for the Centre defended the order and submitted that the CCPA was legally empowered to pass the directions. “The court, however, finds that the petitioner could not be penalised on account of any vague or omnibus directions which seem to have been issued in paragraph 43(b) (of the order). Unless the act of the petitioner is...”.

Newspaper Summary 230326

 

Defence research stays underfunded

MAJOR DETERRENT. With establishment costs eating into research funding, where does that leave innovation of national importance? By M Ramesh

Data from the Ministry of Defence suggests that India’s spend on defence research has grown far less than headline numbers indicate. The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) spent ₹13,258 crore on R&D in 2014-15. By 2024-25, this had risen 87 per cent to ₹24,793 crore, which, at first glance, appears to signal a steady expansion of research effort. But this is in nominal terms. Adjusted for economy-wide inflation, using the GDP deflator, the real annual growth is only 1.5–2 per cent.

The picture becomes starker when looking at how this money is spent. The portion devoted to specific projects and programmes — missile systems, aircraft engines, radars and the like — has moved from ₹3,770 crore in 2014–15 to about ₹5,900 crore in 2025–26. After adjusting for inflation, this implies virtually no growth in real terms over the period. This also suggests a shift in composition: While overall spending has increased, the share going to R&D projects has not kept pace. A growing proportion of the budget appears to be absorbed by establishment costs rather than programme funding.

Budget trends reinforce this concern. In 2025–26, the allocation for defence R&D was raised by 12 per cent, from ₹23,855 crore to ₹26,817 crore. Yet the revised estimate came in slightly lower, at ₹26,747 crore, indicating that even the allocated funds were not fully utilised. The increase over the previous year’s revised estimate was about 8 per cent. Spending on projects and programmes grew only about 9 per cent in 2024–25. The pattern raises a broader question: Is higher allocation translating into more research?

The Budget for 2026-27 provides ₹29,100 crore for DRDO, a 10 per cent increase year-on-year. Whether this results in a meaningful increase in programme spending — or is again absorbed by costs — remains to be seen.

A WIDER PATTERN

This scenario is not unique to defence research spending. Across six key science departments — science and technology, biotechnology, scientific and industrial research, space, atomic energy, and Earth sciences — government R&D spending rose from ₹28,014 crore in 2020–21 to ₹39,057 crore in 2024–25. That translates to a nominal annual growth rate of about 8.8 per cent. Adjusted for inflation, however, the real growth rate is only 2–3 per cent a year.

The pattern is consistent: headline increases mask modest real expansion. India’s gross expenditure on research and development (GERD) has remained stuck at 0.6–0.7 per cent of the GDP for over a decade. This is not merely because the GDP has grown rapidly, but also because R&D spending has struggled to grow meaningfully in real terms.

EFFICIENCY FACTOR

It can be argued that limited resources have been used efficiently. India’s rank in the Global Innovation Index has improved significantly over the past decade, and government-backed schemes in areas such as biotechnology have helped start-ups raise follow-on funding and generate intellectual property.

But these are, at best, partial indicators. Improvements in innovation rankings reflect a broad set of factors, and start-up success in specific sectors is not a fill-in for sustained investment in core research capabilities. The more fundamental question remains unanswered: What might outcomes look like if real R&D spending grew faster?

For a country seeking technological self-reliance, particularly in sectors such as defence, flat real spending and stagnant programme outlays are not neutral outcomes. They imply a slower build-up of capabilities, regardless of improvements in efficiency at the margins. India may indeed be getting more value out of each rupee, but over the past decade, it has not been putting significantly more real resources into research.

Group of Ministers, Secys to be formed to deal with critical needs of citizens

Our Bureau New Delhi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday directed the formation of a group of ministers and secretaries to work dedicatedly in a whole of government approach. According to a statement issued following a Cabinet Committee of Security meeting chaired by Modi, the ongoing conflict in West Asia is expected to have significant short, medium, and long-term impacts on the global economy. The meeting, attended by 13 Ministers including the Home, Defence, and Finance Ministers, focused on assessing these effects on India and discussing both immediate and long-term countermeasures.

The committee conducted a detailed assessment regarding the availability of critical needs for the common man, specifically highlighting food, energy, and fuel security. The impact on farmers and their requirements for fertilizer for the kharif season was a key point of discussion. The government stated that measures taken over the last few years to maintain adequate stocks would ensure timely availability, though alternate sources of fertilizers were also discussed to secure future supply.

IMPORT SOURCES

The meeting further deliberated on diversifying sources of imports necessary for the chemicals, pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals, and other industrial sectors. Additionally, the government plans to develop new export destinations to promote Indian goods in the near future.

Modi instructed that all arms of the government must work in coordination to ensure minimal inconvenience to citizens. He specifically called for proper coordination with State governments to prevent black-marketing and hoarding of important commodities.

Demographic fixation

AP set to repeat failed pronatalist projects in China, Japan

The draft Population Management Policy recently unveiled by Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu marks a continuation of the State’s long record of intrusive demographic engineering. The new policy attempts to raise fertility from a total fertility rate of around 1.5 towards replacement levels by offering financial incentives for a third child, extended maternity benefits, subsidized fertility treatments, and childcare support.

Among the southern States, AP has long stood apart for adopting a rigid, neo-Malthusian approach to population control, often at the expense of women’s reproductive autonomy. Previous measures included coercive disincentives, such as barring couples with more than two children from contesting panchayat elections, effectively linking civic participation to reproductive behavior. By focusing narrowly on fertility reduction, other critical dimensions of women’s health have deteriorated; the State now records one of the highest hysterectomy prevalence rates in the country at 8.7 per cent (nearly three times the national average) and a caesarean delivery rate of 42.4 per cent, double the national average. Early marriage also persists, with nearly 29 per cent of women aged 20-24 married before 18.

These statistics suggest systemic distortions where women's bodies become sites of policy excess. International experience offers little comfort, as countries like South Korea, Japan, and China have deployed extensive incentives to boost fertility with limited or no success. Lessons from these nations show that financial incentives may alter the timing of births but rarely change the total number of children families choose to have, as those decisions are shaped by factors like education, housing costs, career pressures, and work-life balance.

AP’s policy raises deeper concerns about rights. Having once imposed limits, the State now encourages larger families without addressing the structural inequities that constrain women's choices. If demographic anxieties regarding labor shortages are driving this shift, less intrusive solutions exist, such as inter-State migration from more populous states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The real challenge is not an absence of people, but how effectively they are educated, employed, and able to move toward existing opportunities.

Betting big on India

The author explains factors that favour India’s rise

BOOK REVIEW. Sudhirendar Sharma Title: Era of India Author: Minhaz Merchant Publisher: Penguin Vintage Price: ₹999

The India growth story is fascinating. During the middle of the Mughal regime in the 1700s, India accounted for 24 per cent of global GDP. In the next 190 years of brutal British colonialism, it had become an impoverished economy accounting for just 3 per cent of global GDP. For half a century after gaining Independence in 1947, India had too small an economy worth taking note of. However, after several years of steady GDP growth since, it overtook Britain and is on track to overtake Japan and Germany as the world’s third-largest economy by 2030.

Using empirical data and research evidence, Minhaz Merchant argues that there won’t be any European country among the world’s three largest economies. The US believes that as India is on economic ascent, it will be the third economy alongside China to drive global growth. Much will, however, depend on how towards the middle of this century, India upgrades itself with digital technologies and artificial intelligence to lead the world. It is expected that by year 2030, an estimated 70 per cent of Fortune 500 companies will have their capability centres located in India. Its technological infrastructure and expanding consumer market will provide a perfect ecosystem for these companies, and through them for India, to grow.

It isn’t as linear as it may seem. The ongoing trade and technology war between the US and China is recasting global alliances. In such a situation, will India act as a balancing pivot between the two warring factions? At this crucial time when the US is pushing an ‘America First’ policy for seeking revival of its hegemony and China is rising as both an economic and military power, not much can be expected from a third party. The geopolitics of global change is turbulent, with the US playing a vital part in its strategic calculations.

Era of India provides an immensely readable perspective on the social, religious, political and economic history of the world. It traces the rise and fall of civilizations from antiquity to the present. History has been complicated as the weapons of war allowed for invasion and colonisation. Much has changed since then; the stockpile of weapons are used instead to influence and enforce change. The book goes a step further to assess the shift in power, triggered by the decline of the West and the rise of the rest. It is an engaging assessment of shifting global power.

GLOBAL POWER TRIAD

History will come full circle, argues Merchant, and applies growth data to prove that three countries — the US, China and India — will exert centripetal force in world affairs in 2050. However, despite economic and military superiority, the three may not be without their own weaknesses and vulnerability. Counting India in this global power triad will favour the US. With India being a major consumer of a variety of products, the US will explore the markets by enforcing a favourable tariff regime to dump its products. Incidentally, India may not have any choice.

As the title suggests, Era of India narrates all that favours the rise of India. But the questions worth asking are: Where does India stand in this emerging world order? How can China’s role in reshaping the world be ascertained? The homogeneity of Chinese society should be an advantage in taking decisions, whereas the noisy, multicultural societies in the US and India may act as deterrents. Understanding China is critical, strategically. It has not only lifted more people out of poverty faster, but is also the only economic power that has moved closer to the size of the US economy. How India leverages its soft power will determine its status amongst the triad. Merchant leaves it for the reader to take a call.

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The reviewer is a writer, researcher and academic.

No exam is too hard for AI?

STUDIOUS MACHINES By N Nagaraj

Someone, at some point, perhaps as a joke, decided to call it “Humanity’s last exam”, or HLE. By the time it was published in Nature in January, its designers had already announced a replacement. The replacement is updated continuously; it has to be.

HLE is a benchmark of 2,500 questions assembled by nearly 1,000 experts from 500 institutions across 50 countries, introduced by researchers at the Center for AI Safety and Scale AI. At launch, the best AI models scored under 10 per cent. The live leaderboard now shows 38.3 per cent; the trajectory, more than the absolute score, is the point.

The benchmark was designed in response to a failure in existing tools for measuring AI capability. Frontier models had already exceeded 90 per cent accuracy on MMLU (massive multitask language understanding), which was once considered a serious challenge. When all systems can clear a test, the instrument no longer reveals the differences between them or predicts where they may be in a year.

HLE’s design logic was deliberately adversarial. Questions were submitted by experts across more than a hundred disciplines. Before entering the dataset, each question had to defeat all current frontier models and pass two rounds of expert review. The result was a set of questions that, by construction, no existing AI could reliably answer.

EVALUATION RESULTS

The results confirmed the difficulty. At launch, GPT-4o scored 2.7 per cent, Claude 3.5 per cent, and Sonnet 4.1 per cent. However, scores have climbed rapidly; the live leaderboard now shows Gemini 3 Pro at 38.3 per cent, while Gemini 2.5 Pro reached 21.6 per cent.

Calibration errors across models ranged from 50 per cent to 89 per cent. Calibration measures whether a model’s stated confidence matches its actual accuracy. On HLE, models routinely expressed high confidence while being wrong. This is not a quirk of one system but holds across architectures, suggesting a structural feature of current AI design.

Accuracy improved with more reasoning compute, but only to a point. Beyond roughly 16,000 output tokens, performance declined. The paper also reports an expert disagreement rate of 15.4 per cent, rising to 18 per cent in biology, chemistry, and health. Nearly one in six questions could not be answered consistently even by specialists, making the benchmark harder than any existing AI can reliably handle and harder for any single human expert.

The authors clarify that high performance on HLE would not constitute evidence of artificial general intelligence (AGI). Instead, it would demonstrate expert-level performance on close-ended academic questions.

DYNAMIC TESTING

While MMLU took years to saturate, HLE is showing pressure within months. The designers acknowledge this by announcing HLE-Rolling, a dynamically updated version intended to stay ahead of the models. Once a benchmark is published, it becomes a target for developers, and the instrument and the thing it measures cease to be independent. The inability to build a stable yardstick suggests that capability is moving faster than the ability to define what is being measured.

BUSINESS CONSEQUENCES

For businesses, this has significant consequences:

• Unstable Claims: Procurement decisions are often made on capability claims built on benchmark performance; if benchmarks are unstable, so are those claims.
• Confident Wrongness: A model that cannot signal its own uncertainty is unsuitable for contexts where errors compound, such as credit assessment, medical triage, and document-intensive work. Confident wrongness is operationally worse than uncertain wrongness because it removes the incentive for a human check.
• Short Shelf-life: The pace of improvement means current understandings of AI capability have a short shelf-life. Regulatory and planning assumptions require revision cycles that most institutions are not designed to support.

The scores are rising so fast that it may not be possible to decide, in any meaningful way, which model is leading. At the margins of a high-difficulty benchmark, the difference between the best and the second-best is often just statistical noise.

Kochi to repeat water metro feat in Mumbai

WINNING IDEA. By V Sajeev Kumar

In a landmark step towards redefining urban mobility in India, Kochi Metro Rail Limited (KMRL) has submitted a detailed project report (DPR) for developing a modern passenger water transport (PWT) system across the Mumbai Metropolitan Region, in collaboration with the Maharashtra Maritime Board (MMB). Building on the success of the Kochi Water Metro, the proposed initiative aims to leverage Mumbai’s extensive coastline and waterways to create an integrated, efficient and environmentally sustainable transport network tailored to the region’s unique geography.

The proposed PWT system is envisioned as a low-emission, eco-friendly alternative that will enhance regional connectivity, reduce congestion on existing road and rail corridors, and support economic growth and tourism. The DPR outlines a comprehensive approach for developing both new and existing routes, including the construction of modern terminals and upgradation of existing jetties.

The proposed network includes 11 new routes supported by 24 terminals, which will be integrated with 25 existing terminals, including six common terminals serving both systems. The total route length would increase to over 215 km from the existing 128 km. The project envisages a fleet of 148 boats for the proposed routes and 49 boats for the existing network, alongside six emergency response vessels. The estimated cost of the project is ₹6,067 crore.

The routes would connect key urban centres and growth corridors across the Mumbai Metropolitan Region, including Vasai and Mira Bhayander, Kalyan-Dombivli and Thane, Airoli, Vashi and the Navi Mumbai International Airport, as well as prominent coastal and business hubs such as the Gateway of India, Bandra, Worli and Nariman Point. These corridors are expected to significantly improve multimodal integration and last-mile connectivity, offering commuters a faster and more comfortable alternative to conventional modes of transport. The project also focuses on the development of new terminals and the modernisation of existing infrastructure, ensuring seamless integration with other modes of public transport. The key terminals at Gateway of India, NMIA and Nariman Point are being aligned with the parallel infrastructure initiatives undertaken by the MMB to maximise efficiency and commuter experience.

MF equity cash holdings up by ₹4,000 crore in Feb

Suresh P Iyengar Mumbai

Mutual fund houses have increased the cash holding of equity schemes by ₹4,000 crore to ₹2.10 lakh crore in February against ₹2.06 lakh crore logged in January due to the market volatility, according to a JM Financial report. However, steady systematic investment plan (SIP) inflows and the recent fall in markets opening up fresh buying avenues have kept the cash holdings under check.

Part of the cash build-up could also be due to eight equity schemes raising ₹3,955 crore through NFOs last month. In January, four equity NFOs mopped up ₹806 crore. The inflows through SIP in the last 11 months of this fiscal were up 10 per cent at ₹3,17,502 crore against ₹2,89,352 crore logged in the whole of FY25.

Akshat Garg, Head-Research & Product at Choice Wealth, said that less than 5 per cent cash holding of MFs does not necessarily mean there is no redemption pressure but it is simply under manageable limits. “If there was real stress in the system, cash levels would have moved up sharply as fund managers prepared for outflows. That is clearly not happening right now,” he added.

The MF ecosystem is heavily supported by consistent SIP inflows, which continue to remain strong even during volatile phases. These steady inflows act as a natural counterbalance to redemptions, allowing fund managers to manage liquidity without holding excessive cash. In fact, in a falling market, holding higher cash could actually become a drag if the markets rebound quickly, which is why most funds prefer to remain close to fully invested.

The gross redemption from equity schemes reduced to ₹36,098 crore in February from ₹41,639 crore in January. However, a consistent sharp fall in equity markets may scare new MF investors, leading to higher redemptions and lower inflows. Gibin John, Senior Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments, noted that MFs continue to receive strong and steady SIP inflows of around ₹29,000-₹30,000 crore per month, providing consistent liquidity support.

Despite the huge volatility and the recent meltdown in markets, the overall equity asset under management has increased 16 per cent to ₹35.39 lakh crore in February against ₹30.57 lakh crore in April 2025. However, the March numbers will be crucial as the Sensex has already fallen 7 per cent so far this month to 74,533 on Friday from 80,239 on March 2.

AT A GLANCE

• Mutual fund houses have increased the cash holding of equity schemes to ₹2.10 lakh crore in February from ₹2.06 lakh crore in January.
• SIP inflows in the last 11 months of FY26 were up 10% at ₹3,17,502 crore against ₹2,89,352 crore in FY25.
• The gross redemption from equity schemes reduced to ₹36,098 crore in February from ₹41,639 crore in January.

India’s silent newborn crisis

CRITICAL WINDOW. A heel-prick blood test 48-72 hours after birth can detect congenital hypothyroidism By Kishore Kumar

India is confronting a silent, yet entirely preventable postnatal crisis. One in every 1,000 babies born in India has congenital hypothyroidism (CH) which, if left undetected, can lead to permanent intellectual disability.

CH occurs when a baby is born without a thyroid gland or an underdeveloped or poorly functioning one. The thyroid produces thyroxine (T4), a hormone essential for brain development, growth and metabolism. In the earliest weeks of life, thyroxine plays a decisive role in neuronal development and brain maturation; this period represents a narrow but critical window.

If adequate thyroid hormone is not available during this time, the consequences can include irreversible intellectual disability, stunted physical growth, hearing impairment and delayed motor development. The most alarming aspect is that affected babies almost always appear completely normal at birth. Without screening, there are no obvious clinical signs to alert families or healthcare providers.

Globally, the incidence of CH is one in 2,500-3,000 live births. In India, given the higher prevalence and an estimated 26 million births annually, at least 10,000 babies are born with CH each year. That means roughly 27 babies each day and one baby each hour. Every one of these infants could lead a normal, productive life if diagnosed and treated within two weeks of birth through mandatory early newborn screening.

AFFORDABLE TEST

CH is identified using a simple heel-prick blood test conducted 48–72 hours after birth. The test measures thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) levels and, when implemented at scale, costs approximately ₹50 per baby. While treated infants can achieve normal development, untreated CH can reduce IQ by 30-50 points. The difference between a healthy future and lifelong disability rests on testing a single drop of blood.

The lifetime care of a child with severe intellectual disability includes special education, medical consultations, and long-term dependency. In a country where out-of-pocket healthcare expenditure is high, this can push households into financial distress and intergenerational disadvantage.

THE PATH FORWARD

The next phase of progress must focus on safeguarding neurodevelopment and ensuring quality of life. Most developed nations have implemented universal newborn screening for CH for nearly six decades, virtually eliminating it as a cause of avoidable cognitive impairment. India still lacks mandatory nationwide screening.

Universal newborn screening for CH must be integrated into all public and private birthing facilities. This requires policy mandates, structured funding, standardised testing protocols, and centralised data monitoring systems to ensure compliance and accountability.

The science is unequivocal; the screening test is simple and affordable, and the treatment is effective. What is missing is collective will. Protecting a child’s brain at birth is a vital necessity.

Sports economy doubled in four years, crossed $2 billion-mark in 2025 : WPP Media report

Cricket business alone grew 17.9 per cent to ₹16,704.2 crore last year By Meenakshi Verma Ambwani, New Delhi

India’s sports economy crossed the $2 billion-mark for the first time in CY2025, reaching ₹18,864 crore ($2.13 billion) and marking a 13.4 per cent growth over the previous year. Sports ad spends, the largest industry component, rose 19.8 per cent to ₹9,571 crore, while sponsorship spends grew 7 per cent to ₹7,943 crore. Additionally, athlete-oriented endorsement deals were valued at ₹1,350 crore, up 10.3 per cent from 2024.

According to Vinit Karnik, MD – Content, Sports and Entertainment at WPP Media, South Asia, the industry has doubled from ₹9,530 crore in 2021. He noted that CY2025 represents a structural inflection point where sports has moved from an emerging market to a story of consolidation and scale, reflecting deep advertiser confidence.

Cricket continues to dominate, contributing nearly 89 per cent of the total industry. Despite a ban affecting real money gaming (RMG) players, cricket media spends reached ₹9,026 crore in 2025. Furthermore, IPL franchises achieved a milestone by crossing the ₹1,000 crore-mark in cumulative team sponsorship revenues. Karnik stated that the void left by RMG players was filled by other sectors, proving that cricket's commercial foundation has broadened beyond a single advertiser cohort.

SPORTS REVENUES

Conversely, emerging sports revenues declined by 12.2 per cent in 2025 to ₹2,159.9 crore. This drop was attributed to the postponement of the Indian Super League and a lack of major non-cricketing multi-nation tournaments. Emerging sports now account for 11 per cent of the total industry, though event-based tournaments like the Neeraj Chopra Classic provided some positive momentum.