The Rise of China in Academic Research

 The 2006 National Medium- and Long-Term Plan (NMLP) for the Development of Science and Technology is identified in the sources as a "major impetus" and a decisive turning point in China’s transformation into a global scientific superpower. Launched by the Chinese government in January 2006, this ambitious strategy aimed to transition China into an innovation-oriented economy by 2050.

Core Objectives and Implementation

The NMLP represented a shift from China's previous "catching up" strategy to a proactive effort to move ahead of other nations. The plan included several key components:

• Targeted Strategic Fields: It directed research toward areas of high-growth potential and strategic importance, specifically physics, chemistry, biology, and medicine.
• Structural Reforms: It encompassed 11 key national development areas, 16 major special projects, and 27 cutting-edge technologies. It also included reforms to patent law to encourage domestic innovation and investments in large-scale industrial projects to create synergies between R&D and practical application.
• Funding Mechanisms: The plan was implemented through successive five-year economic plans, with research and development (R&D) expenses nearly doubling by 2010.

Impact on China’s Research Rise

The sources demonstrate that the NMLP catalyzed a dramatic surge in both the quantity and quality of China's academic research:

• Volume and Leadership: Following the 2006 launch, China’s publication volume in top-tier journals rose sharply, eventually leading it to surpass the United States as the world’s leading producer of scientific research by 2022.
• Quality and Influence: Citation counts, which measure research influence, rose even more strongly than publication volume. For China-based researchers, publications per capita increased by approximately 17% relative to the rest of the world post-2006.
• Field-Specific Growth: The gains were heavily concentrated in the fields explicitly targeted by the NMLP. In these areas, publication output was roughly 85% higher by 2022 compared to non-targeted fields like mathematics and economics, which showed significantly slower growth.

Broader Context and Global Implications

The success of the NMLP challenges long-held Western skepticism regarding the efficacy of top-down, centralized planning in innovation.

• Effective State-Led Investment: The evidence suggests that sustained and strategically targeted public investment can effectively expand a country's scientific capacity and global influence.
• Shift in Global Dominance: China's rapid ascent has challenged the historical dominance of the United States and Europe in academic research. The sources suggest this new reality may force advanced economies to rethink their own science and innovation policies to remain competitive.
• Limitations and Exceptions: While STEM fields thrived under the NMLP, the social sciences—particularly economics—did not experience comparable growth. The sources attribute this to the technical nature of STEM fields being less "politically sensitive" compared to disciplines that involve critical analysis of national policies and institutional arrangements.

The sources describe the growth in China’s scientific output as one of the most significant shifts in the modern research landscape, characterized by a rapid transition from a strategy of "catching up" to one of global leadership. This rise culminated in 2022 when China surpassed the United States as the world's leading producer of scientific research.

The following key themes summarize the growth of China's scientific output within this context:

1. Massive Surge in Volume and Quality

Following the launch of the 2006 National Medium- and Long-Term Plan (NMLP), China experienced a dramatic increase in both the quantity and quality of its research.

• Publication Volume: On average, publications per capita by China-based researchers increased by approximately 17.2% relative to the rest of the world after 2006.
• Research Influence: The quality of this output, measured by citation counts, rose even more dramatically, increasing by roughly 140.1% compared to the control group in the years following the NMLP's implementation.
• Trend Over Time: While there were no significant differences in output between China and other countries before 2006, a significant and widening "publication gap" emerged thereafter, with China's output per million population being 53.8% higher than the control group by 2022.

2. Concentration in Strategic Fields

The growth has not been uniform across all academic disciplines; rather, it is heavily concentrated in the STEM fields explicitly targeted by the government.

• Targeted Success: In disciplines such as physics, chemistry, biology, and medicine, publication output was roughly 85% higher by 2022 compared to non-targeted fields like mathematics and economics.
• Disciplinary Dominance: The share of global articles produced by China-based researchers in Chemistry jumped from 2.4% (2000–2005) to 36.4% (2017–2022). Similarly, in Physics, the share rose from 2.1% to 23.5% in the same period.
• Lagging Fields: In contrast, the field of Economics showed only a small increase, with China-based researchers accounting for only 1.78% of top-tier publications by 2022.

3. State-Led Investment as a Catalyst

The sources attribute this growth to sustained, strategically targeted public investment rather than accidental market shifts.

• R&D Spending: China's research and development expenses nearly doubled by 2010. By 2020, total R&D spending reached approximately $378 billion, or 2.4% of its GDP.
• Strategic Instruments: Funding is viewed as a "powerful strategic instrument" used to align scientific capacity with long-term industrial and technological objectives, such as the "Made in China 2025" initiative.

4. Broader Implications for Global Research

China's rapid ascent has fundamentally altered the global balance of knowledge production.

• Challenging Western Dominance: This rise challenges the long-standing assumption that centralized, top-down research systems are inherently inefficient.
• Pressure on Advanced Economies: China’s expanding capacity poses a direct challenge to the historical dominance of the United States and Europe, suggesting that these regions may need to rethink their own innovation policies to remain competitive.
• Latecomer Advantage: The sources conclude that China's success proves it is possible for a "latecomer" country to overcome entry barriers and build a globally competitive research system through a coherent and sustained national strategy.

The sources indicate that the rise of China in academic research is characterized by a profound disciplinary divergence, where the impact of national policy is heavily concentrated in specific technical fields while others experience significantly slower growth. This uneven development is a direct result of the 2006 National Medium- and Long-Term Plan (NMLP), which prioritized certain disciplines to transform China into an innovation-oriented economy.

Dominance in Targeted STEM Fields

The most significant disciplinary impact is found in the fields explicitly targeted by the NMLP: physics, chemistry, biology, and medicine. The state’s strategic investment in these areas has led to a dramatic shift in global research shares:

• Chemistry: China’s share of global articles in top-tier chemistry journals jumped from 2.4% in the 2000–2005 period to 36.4% by 2017–2022.
• Physics: In the same timeframe, its global share in physics rose from 2.1% to 23.5%.
• Output Gap: By 2022, the publication output in these targeted disciplines was approximately 85% higher than in non-targeted fields.
• Quality and Influence: The impact is not limited to volume; citation counts—a proxy for research quality—increased by roughly 140.1% for China-based publications relative to the rest of the world after the 2006 policy onset.

Stagnation in Non-Targeted Fields

In contrast, disciplines excluded from the NMLP’s primary strategic focus, such as mathematics and economics, have shown much less growth.

• Economics: Despite China's massive economic growth, its researchers accounted for only 1.78% of publications in top-tier economics journals by 2022. The United States and Europe continue to dominate this field.
• Mathematics: While mathematics saw some growth (rising from 1.2% to 5.3% global share), it lagged far behind the surges seen in chemistry and physics.

Rationale for Disciplinary Prioritization

The sources suggest that the state-led prioritization of STEM over social sciences is driven by two main factors:

• Strategic Industrial Alignment: STEM disciplines are viewed as essential for industrial upgrading, "technological self-reliance," and the "Made in China 2025" initiative. Research in these areas is treated as a "strategic instrument" to convert fundamental science into commercial technology.
• Political Sensitivity: Technical fields like physics and chemistry are considered less politically sensitive. Conversely, disciplines like economics involve the "critical analysis of policies and institutional arrangements," which may face different institutional constraints and incentives within China's political economy.

Global Implications

This targeted disciplinary success challenges the assumption that top-down, centralized planning is inherently inefficient for producing "frontier innovation". The evidence shows that a sustained national strategy can successfully overcome entry barriers for a "latecomer" country and fundamentally alter the international balance of knowledge production in critical scientific domains.

The sources identify China's rise in academic research not as an accidental byproduct of economic growth, but as the result of a deliberate, state-led strategy characterized by massive investment and strategic institutional reforms. The following drivers are cited as the primary forces behind this performance:

1. The 2006 National Medium- and Long-Term Plan (NMLP)

The NMLP is described as the "major impetus" and a clear break from the past. Launched in January 2006, it shifted China's focus from "learning from the West" and "catching up" to a proactive strategy of moving ahead of other nations. The plan provided a roadmap to transform China into an innovation-oriented economy by 2050 through the coordination of national strategic needs and basic research.

2. Massive Surge in Public Investment

A fundamental driver of performance was the government's willingness to commit immense financial resources to research and development (R&D).

• Rapid Budget Growth: China’s R&D expenses nearly doubled by 2010. By 2020, total R&D spending reached approximately $378 billion, equivalent to 2.4% of its GDP.
• Strategic Allocation: Funding was used as a "powerful strategic instrument" to direct scientific capacity toward specific national industrial and technological goals.
• Targeted Funding Agencies: Performance was bolstered by agencies such as the National Natural Science Foundation of China, which is the country's largest funder of academic research.

3. Strategic Disciplinary Targeting

Rather than spreading resources thinly, the NMLP concentrated efforts on technical fields with high-growth potential: physics, chemistry, biology, and medicine.

• Concentrated Output: In these targeted fields, China's publication output was 85% higher by 2022 compared to non-targeted fields like mathematics and economics.
• Industrial Alignment: These STEM disciplines were prioritized because they align with long-term industrial objectives, such as the "Made in China 2025" initiative.

4. Human Capital and Institutional Expansion

China invested heavily in the infrastructure and people necessary for a top-tier research system.

• University Growth: The number of university students more than doubled during the 1990s as a precursor to this rise. Today, China has over 3,000 universities and more than 1,200 "highly cited researchers".
• Administrative Efficiency: Under the leadership of Xi Jinping, China established new research agencies to improve the efficiency of fund allocation.
• Shift in Metrics: More recently, China moved away from Western metrics like "impact factors" toward domestic strategic priorities, ensuring that research funding directly supports national goals.

5. Synergy Between Research and Industry

The sources highlight that China's performance was driven by an effort to convert fundamental research into commercially successful technologies. This included:

• Mega Industrial Projects: Investments designed to harvest synergies between R&D and practical industrial experience.
• Patent Law Reforms: Revisions to patent law were implemented to encourage the domestic patenting of ideas, further incentivizing innovation within China.

In summary, the sources suggest that China's performance is a "case study of a state-driven research and development strategy". This challenges the traditional Western assumption that centralized, top-down planning is inherently inefficient for producing frontier scientific innovation.

The rise of China as a global research power, catalyzed by the 2006 National Medium- and Long-Term Plan (NMLP), carries significant implications for global policy, economic strategy, and the future of scientific competition.

1. Re-evaluating State-Led Innovation

The most immediate implication identified in the source is a challenge to the "conventional assumption" that centralized, top-down research systems are inherently inefficient. Many Western scholars previously argued that such a system would prioritize quantity over quality and lead to a wasteful allocation of resources. China's success in producing high-quality research and surpassing the U.S. in top-tier publications suggests that sustained and strategically targeted public investment can effectively expand a nation's scientific capacity and global influence.

2. Research Funding as a Strategic Instrument

The source highlights that in China, research funding is not merely an administrative process but a "powerful strategic instrument". By directing resources toward specific technical fields—physics, chemistry, biology, and medicine—the state has successfully aligned scientific capacity with long-term industrial and technological goals, such as "Made in China 2025". This implies that public funding can serve as a lever for structural economic transformation, rather than just a supplement to private sector innovation.

3. Pressure on Western Scientific Dominance

China's rapid ascent has fundamentally altered the global balance of knowledge production. This shift poses a direct challenge to the historical dominance of the United States and Europe. The source suggests that scientific leadership is not a fixed state; instead, advanced economies may need to rethink their own science and innovation policies—including renewed investment and institutional innovation—to remain competitive in the global knowledge economy.

4. Pathways for Latecomer Countries

China's experience demonstrates that it is possible for "latecomer" countries to overcome significant entry barriers and build globally competitive research systems through a deliberate and coherent national strategy. This suggests a potential roadmap for other emerging economies to bypass long-standing Western dominance in academia through state-coordinated efforts.

5. Disciplinary Divergence and Political Economy

The uneven growth across different fields implies that political and institutional contexts significantly shape research outcomes. The sources note that technical STEM fields may have been prioritized because they are less "politically sensitive" and more directly tied to industrial upgrading. Conversely, disciplines like economics, which involve critical analysis of policies and institutional arrangements, have not seen comparable growth. This raises questions about whether social sciences will ever play as central a role in China’s academic landscape as they do in the West.

6. Uncertainties and Long-Term Sustainability

While the NMLP has been highly successful in the short term, the source notes several open questions regarding the future of China's research rise:

• Potential distortions arising from heavy reliance on public funding.
• The efficiency of resource allocation over the long term.
• The ability to sustain this performance in the face of demographic aging and geopolitical tensions.

Newspaper Summary 030626

 

Producer Price Index to replace WPI over 5 years; services in bigger basket

Amiti Sen New Delhi

In a major overhaul of inflation metrics, the Centre will launch a revised Wholesale Price Index (WPI) series this month, kickstarting a five-year transition to replace it entirely with a new Producer Price Index (PPI). On June 15, the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) will release the revised series of WPI with base year FY23, replacing the existing series with base year FY12. This revised series will incorporate an expanded basket of 957 commodities, up from the current 697 items.

Additions to the basket include items such as solar and wind energy and nuclear electricity.

NEW SERIES

Simultaneously, the government will introduce a new series of Output PPI, Trial Input PPI, and Service PPI. The Service PPI will cover seven services: banking, securities transaction, insurance, pension funds management, railways, air (passenger), and telecom.

“Considering the wide usage of the WPI in price escalation clauses, this index will be released for five years from the date of release of the revised series, along with PPI and will be discontinued thereafter," according to a DPIIT statement. This is intended to give users sufficient time to switch from WPI to PPI.

While the WPI tracks prices of goods at the wholesale/bulk level, the PPI will track prices at the point of production (farm/factory-gate).

GLOBAL BEST PRACTICE

Pointing out the advantages of PPI over WPI, an official explained that PPI would be more consistent with the national account framework and align with global best practices adopted by advanced economies.

“Availability of both Output PPI and Input PPI explains how inflation experienced by the producer on input items are passed through the output being produced," the official said. Further, both PPIs provide for an opportunity to eliminate the double counting of inflation unlike WPI. While WPI covers goods only, PPI includes services as well.

How AT1 bond issuances have hit a rough patch since 2025

Lokeshwarri SK Chennai

Additional Tier 1 bonds or AT1 bonds have been caught in one scandal after another, making issuers shy away from them in recent years. Only ₹3,500 crore was raised through these bonds in 2025, registering a 79 per cent decline from the issuances worth ₹16,859 crore in 2024.

AT1 bonds are high-yielding but very risky instruments issued by banks to meet capital requirements under Basel-III norms. These are perpetual bonds, meaning they have no maturity date and can be written off or converted into equity by the RBI if faced with a financial crisis. This means investors may not only forego interest but could lose their entire principal under certain circumstances.

These bonds have been involved in several cases of mis-selling where high returns were highlighted without adequately explaining the risks. For example, employees of HDFC Bank’s Dubai branch were found mis-selling Credit Suisse AT1 bonds to NRI clients. Additionally, the Supreme Court has yet to give a final order regarding Yes Bank’s write-off of AT1 bonds worth ₹8,415 crore in 2020.

DECLINING NUMBERS

Data from Prime Database shows these bonds remained in favor until 2024. In 2021, nine issuances raised ₹24,271 crore, and in 2022, 18 issues raised ₹30,172 crore. However, these numbers halved through 2023 and 2024 before dwindling completely in 2025.

“The decline in AT1 bond issuances is the result of a combination of factors: the hybrid debt-equity nature of the instrument, regulatory and valuation debates, the aftermath of the Yes Bank and Credit Suisse events, concerns over pricing adequacy, a limited investor base and increasingly selective investor appetite,” says Venkatakrishnan Srinivasan, founder and managing partner of debt advisory firm Rockfort Fincap.

Furthermore, the strong balance sheets of banks post-pandemic, characterized by reduced stressed assets, may have lowered the overall requirement for capital in recent years.

PSU BANKS LEAD

Since 2021, Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) banks have led AT1 fundraising. SBI has raised the most at ₹42,208 crore across nine issuances, followed by Canara Bank (₹17,903 crore) and Punjab National Bank (₹13,044 crore). Among private banks, only HDFC Bank issued AT1 bonds worth ₹3,000 crore in 2022.

Interestingly, banks have increasingly switched to AT2 bonds since 2024. These are considered one notch less risky than AT1 bonds and can be redeemed after five years.

Srinivasan adds that future growth will depend on achieving a more balanced risk-reward framework. If issuers offer spreads that properly reflect the unique risks of these instruments, demand may continue, especially for top-rated public sector and AAA-rated private sector banks.

bl interview: ‘Enterprise AI has arrived in India at scale’

Sanjana B Bengaluru

Microsoft has announced that three leading IT companies — Infosys, TCS and Wipro — have each scaled their Microsoft 365 Copilot licences to over one lakh employees, taking the collective commitment past three lakh seats in under six months. This announcement builds on the 50,000-seat deployments announced in December 2025, highlighting how integral AI is now across engineering, service delivery and business operations at enterprise scale.

Puneet Chandok, President, Microsoft India and South Asia, discusses India’s emergence as a key market for AI adoption, Microsoft’s investment plans and the broader impact of AI on jobs and enterprise operations.

Edited excerpts:

What are some key milestones or developments at Microsoft that stood out recently? The three Indian IT majors have each scaled Microsoft 365 Copilot seats to one lakh employees, with a collective deployment across roughly three lakh engineers. This is one of the largest and fastest enterprise AI roll-outs globally on Microsoft. It’s the strongest real-world proof of enterprise AI at scale. We’re moving from pilots and experimentation to real scale, with Copilot becoming the connective tissue across these three-lakh-plus engineers. It’s also a clear signal that enterprise AI has arrived in India at scale. India is setting the pace for Asia and is amongst the fastest-moving markets globally for Copilot and AI adoption.

AI is no longer a side project or a vision; it is how work is getting done in these businesses, and how work is measured. About 49 per cent of Copilot usage we are seeing is cognitive work, which is real analysis, creative thinking and problem-solving; 58 per cent of users tell us they can do what they couldn’t a year ago. Copilot is becoming the UI for AI across all knowledge workers. This is the real-world proof of AI and Copilots being embedded into workflows and how work gets done across IT services across sectors in the country.

Is largescale AI adoption giving Indian IT services firms a competitive edge globally? At a time when differentiation matters, how is AI helping the companies stand out? This is happening in multiple ways. First, they’re making the engineers more productive, meaning productivity benefits. Engineers have more time for more value-added work. Second, it’s reducing cycle times and helping enterprises do things faster for customers, which in turn allows them to do more. It’s also allowing employees to deliver more value-added work to customers than before.

Has the appetite for AI investment changed in light of the current global uncertainty or does the momentum remain intact? India is already one of the fastest-growing markets in the world for Copilots, leading the pack. There has been sustained double-digit growth over the last few years. People are using this to think about how they become Frontier Firms, and how to get AI to work for them to increase productivity, efficiency and effectiveness. There is significant growth across our platforms, Copilots, Azure and our service lines. That’s the reason we’re investing in India.

There is growing optimism that India could become a major beneficiary of the global AI infrastructure build-out. What role will Microsoft’s investments play in that journey? There are three ways to look at this. First, we are building the right infrastructure in the country for AI to meet India’s needs. We’re also building the largest data centre footprint in the country; Hyderabad, our next region, is going live soon. Second is talent, which is scaling. India is the largest classroom in the world, and we must train Indians to use AI the right way. Third is enterprise adoption, which is where India is leading. Taken together, these three factors give strong reason for optimism about India’s AI future.

Where do these milestones place India in Microsoft’s global strategy? India is one of the most exciting markets today in the world for tech and AI, be it infrastructure, talent and skilling, or enterprise AI adoption. That’s the reason we invest in building in India. We’re seeing significant growth, so we’re excited about what we’re building and doing with customers. In some cases, we’re leading across Asia and setting the template for enterprise-scale AI adoption not just in the global South, but the world.

Many workers worry that AI could lead to job losses as companies seek greater efficiency. Is that concern justified? Is Microsoft expanding its workforce in India? AI is reducing repetitive work, not eliminating roles. Rule-based tasks are getting automated, allowing us to lift human potential to do more higher-value-added thinking and decision-making work. The nature of work is shifting across functions.

Skills are becoming more important than job titles, and careers will become more fluid. We will move across roles more quickly based on the skills we bring to the table. We are also excited about new roles like AI workflow designers, agent managers, AI trainers and evaluators. The key for us is adaptability. Anybody willing to learn fast and apply AI to work will come out on the right side of this equation. We continue to hire in areas where we’re seeing customer demand and where we’re building new capabilities across the board.

What will the MPC do this time?

Madan Sabnavis

Robert Lucas and Thomas Sargent were proponents of the famous Rational Expectations theory. The theory said that if monetary or any policy is predictable, it ceases to have any impact on economic variables. If everybody knows that the central bank will act only when inflation crosses the defined threshold, it will be business as usual; however, if the central bank suddenly announces a major change, then the impact will be significant.

In a business-as-usual scenario, there is little reason for one to expect any action from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). Inflation is currently well below the 4 per cent mark. While it can be argued that inflation will cross the 5 per cent mark due to global conditions and policy actions, 5 per cent is still within the range of 4-6 per cent, meaning there is no immediate need for pre-emptive action.

Therefore, the RBI projection of inflation is critical. If the MPC acts now and the war ends, leading to a rollback of measures, the move might appear hasty. The general consensus is that there will be a status quo in the repo rate, as inflation remains low. The policy stance may also remain unchanged, though a new forward-looking term like ‘calibrated tightening’ could be used to provide articulation that is more potent than actual action.

RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS

However, if the MPC chooses to apply the ‘rational expectations’ theory, it could go for a rate hike well before it is needed. A 25 bps or 50 bps hike would send a strong message that inflation will not be tolerated, spiking bond yields and raising expectations for future hikes. While higher rates could benefit FPI investors in the debt segment, they would also increase the cost of borrowing for the government.

Higher rates will come in the way of future growth as investment becomes more cautious, lowering aggregate demand. The current economic environment, heavily influenced by global developments, has made policy formulation difficult. Crude oil remains a major factor upsetting calculations, and there is speculation regarding whether the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise rates.

The domestic situation is typified by rising inflation and volatile currency, alongside a fiscal deficit that could exceed targets, leading to higher government borrowing. While raising the repo rate might be tempting given the potential for higher inflation from the ongoing war and the El Nino effect, the risk to growth is significant, as premature hikes could slow down investment without effectively addressing cost-push inflation. This makes the upcoming credit policy particularly interesting.

The writer is Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda. Views expressed are personal.

Rupee set to consolidate

WEEKLY RUPEE VIEW Akhil Nallamuthu

The rupee continued its recovery and appreciated about 0.4 per cent (42 paise) over the past week to close at 95.27 against the dollar on Tuesday. The local currency has now recovered about 1.7 per cent from the record low of 96.96 it touched on May 20.

The rebound comes despite continued foreign outflows. According to NSDL data, net FPI outflows stood at about $2.3 billion over the past week. However, the pressure from outflows was offset by a sharp correction in crude oil prices. Brent crude futures ($94/barrel) slumped 12 per cent last week, reducing concerns over India’s import bill and offering support to the rupee.

Notably, the recovery has come even as the dollar index remained largely flat over the past two weeks. This suggests that domestic factors have also contributed to the rupee’s gains. Economic data released recently indicate resilience in the domestic economy. Supported by a 6.2 per cent growth in manufacturing, India’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) expanded 4.9 per cent in April, compared with 3.2 per cent in the preceding month. Additionally, the Centre managed to contain the fiscal deficit at 4.4 per cent of GDP in FY26, in line with its target, and has set a lower target of 4.3 per cent for FY27.

That said, uncertainty surrounding West Asia continues to linger. While fresh military exchanges involving Iran and Israel have kept markets cautious, diplomatic efforts remain active. US President Donald Trump recently expressed optimism about reaching an agreement with Iran to extend the truce and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Overall, easing crude prices and resilient domestic indicators have aided the rupee, although geopolitical developments remain a key risk.

CHART

The rupee has witnessed a notable recovery in recent sessions. After touching a three-week high of 94.75 on Monday, it has moderated to 95.27. The chart indicates that 95 is a key resistance level.

A breakout above 95 can extend the recovery towards 94.50 and subsequently to 94.20. On the other hand, if the local currency weakens from the current level, it can find support at 95.75 and 96. The next support below 96 is at 96.25.

In the near term, the rupee is likely to move sideways, in line with the prevailing trend in the dollar index. Since May 18, the dollar index has been oscillating within the 98.90-99.50 range. The direction of the breakout from this band will likely determine the next leg of the trend. A breach of 99.50 can lift the index to 100.50, whereas a break below 98.90 can drag it to 98. Therefore, if the dollar index rallies to 100.50, the rupee could weaken towards 96.25. Conversely, a decline in the index to 98 may help the local currency appreciate towards 94.20.

OUTLOOK

Overall, the rupee appears to have entered a consolidation phase after the recent recovery. In the near term, the local currency is likely to trade within the 95-96 range, with the next directional move depending largely on which side the dollar index breaks out of the 98.90-99.50 band.

bl. research bureau

‘Zee got media rights for FIFA events for under $60 m’

Vallari Sanzgiri Mumbai

Zee Entertainment has bagged FIFA rights for 39 global football events at a reported valuation of under $60 million, broadening the scope of sports revenue beyond cricket.

“Zee has likely won FIFA rights at reported valuation of under $60 million which is lower than ₹4.5 billion paid by Viacom 18/Reliance Media Co for FIFA World Cup 2022,” said CLSA capital markets in its report, anticipating the potential fan-following and advertiser build-up from the deal.

Zee is now sitting on an eight-year contract with the Federation Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) for one of the most loved sports in the world, at a sum much lower than the Indian Premier League’s (IPL) media rights deal of $6.2 billion for 2023-27. The FIFA World Cup remains one of the most premium global media properties, catching the attention of youth brands particularly in technology, smartphones, auto, fintech, e-commerce and gaming categories.

“For advertisers, FIFA (World Cup) is perhaps the biggest test yet of whether India has matured into a multi-sport media market or remains overwhelmingly dependent on cricket,” said Umair Mohammad, Founder & CEO at Nitro Commerce.

Even so, the 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to generate over $6 billion in global revenues, making it the biggest tournament in history. The World Cup encompasses 48 teams and 104 matches, significantly increasing inventory for broadcasters and advertisers alike. With a claim to the media rights of 39 such events until 2034, Zee now has a differentiated platform to attract both audiences and advertisers.

ADVERTISER BUZZ

Media agencies speaking to businessline noted reactions from advertisers a day after the deal announcement.

“Football has steadily built a passionate fan base in India, especially among younger urban audiences,” said Raghu Khanna, Founder and CEO of CASHurDRIVE Marketing. Khanna noted that brands today are looking beyond reach towards fan engagement and community building. “The FIFA rights strengthen the competitive landscape in India’s sports media market. They provide advertisers with an alternative premium sports property beyond cricket,” he added.

Live sports remain one of the few categories that consistently attract mass, real-time viewership, according to Pramod Pawar, Quantitative Research-Vice President, Hansa Research Group. Beyond match timings, he noted that the real challenge for advertisers is the mode of viewing.

“With the growing second-screen behaviour, advertisers today have more ways to connect with fans. Repeat telecasts and match highlights can provide Zee with an additional platform to monetise ad inventory and drive incremental advertising. The final impact on ad revenues will depend on how effectively Zee monetises this cross-platform engagement,” said Pawar.

Rupee set to consolidate

WEEKLY RUPEE VIEW Akhil Nallamuthu

The rupee continued its recovery and appreciated about 0.4 per cent (42 paise) over the past week to close at 95.27 against the dollar on Tuesday. The local currency has now recovered about 1.7 per cent from the record low of 96.96 it touched on May 20.

The rebound comes despite continued foreign outflows. According to NSDL data, net FPI outflows stood at about $2.3 billion over the past week. However, the pressure from outflows was offset by a sharp correction in crude oil prices. Brent crude futures ($94/barrel) slumped 12 per cent last week, reducing concerns over India’s import bill and offering support to the rupee.

Notably, the recovery has come even as the dollar index remained largely flat over the past two weeks. This suggests that domestic factors have also contributed to the rupee’s gains. Economic data released recently indicate resilience in the domestic economy. Supported by a 6.2 per cent growth in manufacturing, India’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) expanded 4.9 per cent in April, compared with 3.2 per cent in the preceding month. Additionally, the Centre managed to contain the fiscal deficit at 4.4 per cent of GDP in FY26, in line with its target, and has set a lower target of 4.3 per cent for FY27.

That said, uncertainty surrounding West Asia continues to linger. While fresh military exchanges involving Iran and Israel have kept markets cautious, diplomatic efforts remain active. US President Donald Trump recently expressed optimism about reaching an agreement with Iran to extend the truce and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Overall, easing crude prices and resilient domestic indicators have aided the rupee, although geopolitical developments remain a key risk.

CHART

The rupee has witnessed a notable recovery in recent sessions. After touching a three-week high of 94.75 on Monday, it has moderated to 95.27. The chart indicates that 95 is a key resistance level.

A breakout above 95 can extend the recovery towards 94.50 and subsequently to 94.20. On the other hand, if the local currency weakens from the current level, it can find support at 95.75 and 96. The next support below 96 is at 96.25.

In the near term, the rupee is likely to move sideways, in line with the prevailing trend in the dollar index. Since May 18, the dollar index has been oscillating within the 98.90-99.50 range. The direction of the breakout from this band will likely determine the next leg of the trend. A breach of 99.50 can lift the index to 100.50, whereas a break below 98.90 can drag it to 98. Therefore, if the dollar index rallies to 100.50, the rupee could weaken towards 96.25. Conversely, a decline in the index to 98 may help the local currency appreciate towards 94.20.

OUTLOOK

Overall, the rupee appears to have entered a consolidation phase after the recent recovery. In the near term, the local currency is likely to trade within the 95-96 range, with the next directional move depending largely on which side the dollar index breaks out of the 98.90-99.50 band.

bl. research bureau

Europe Versus America: A Response to the Critics

The puzzle is real, even if you don’t like my explanation

PAUL KRUGMAN MAY 30, 2026

A note for most readers: This is inside economics baseball football, a discussion mostly among professionals — and covers issues that even economists seem to be perplexed by. You have been warned.

Phillipe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud and Luis Garicano have written a response to my discussions of the Europe/US productivity gap. I respect their standing as serious analysts, who have produced a body of valuable work.

Yet I found their article baffling, because their arguments appear to rest on the same confusion about the implications of different national productivity trends that I am trying to clarify. In fact, their apparent confusion about the point that I am making – that people often misunderstand what productivity trends mean for cross-country comparisons — is reflected in the very title of their article, The Mismeasurement of Europe’s Productivity.

Let me be clear: I am not arguing that European productivity is mismeasured, and never said that. I am, instead, arguing that standard measures of productivity do not have the implications for cross-country comparisons of living standards and economic welfare that many people – including many economists – think they have. To put it a slightly different way: people are using data that is unsuited for the kinds of comparisons that they are trying to make. Thus, the conclusions that they are drawing from the data are misguided. But this is not to say that the data are wrong.

The apparent misunderstanding by Aghion et al of what I am trying to say is also reflected in their discussion. Their presentation mostly centers on arguing that European productivity growth is in fact lower than US productivity growth. This is puzzling, because I am not arguing that European productivity growth matches or exceeds US productivity growth. Like Aghion et al, I am fully aware that European productivity growth is lower than in the U.S.. But this is not the actual issue that I am trying to address. My question is whether the standard comparison of European and US productivity growth rates is a good indicator of what is actually going on in the two economies over time.

From my viewpoint, the starting point for the debate on the relative performance of the EU and the US should be the acknowledgment that a comparison of US-Europe productivity trends looks very different if you use two different metrics.

One method is to compare the growth in inflation-adjusted GDP per hour within countries. This is a standard way to make cross-country comparisons, but one that answers the wrong question. The other method is to compare the year-by-year value of output per worker-hour, adjusted for differences in national price levels to control for exchange rate instability, but not for changing price levels over time. This measure is, I would argue, much more meaningful for comparing trends in economic welfare across countries.

You might think, and I suspect that many observers have assumed, that these two approaches tell similar stories. But they don’t.

I’ve been in the Netherlands recently, looking at Dutch data. As a high-productivity nation with much lower measured productivity growth at constant prices than the US, the Netherlands, it turns out, offer a kind of reductio ad absurdum for many US-EU comparisons. So I’ll initially focus on Dutch data to make my point, although the basic story applies to much of the EU.

Let’s look at OECD estimates of GDP per worker-hour in the US and NL, adjusting the data two ways. The first (the blue line) looks at the ratio of NL to US productivity year by year at current prices, adjusted only for purchasing power parity. By this measure, Dutch productivity is slightly higher than US productivity now, probably because of the presence of highly capital-intensive industries associated with the port of Rotterdam. NL productivity was also slightly higher in 2000, with no significant trend.

Note: The source includes a chart titled "Ratio of NL to US GDP per hour" comparing "Current price PPP" and "Chain linked 2020 prices" from 2000 to 2024.

Suppose, however, that we measure GDP and hence productivity growth adjusting for national inflation rates (the black line). The OECD uses 2020 as a base year, so the two measures of relative productivity are equal in that year. But as we move back in time, they diverge. By this measure, Dutch productivity was 25 percent higher than US productivity in 2000.

Was the Netherlands drastically richer and more productive than America a generation ago? I doubt that many people would agree with that proposition. It’s certainly not what people believed at the time.

But if you find this proposition implausible, you must also concede that the conventional understanding of the implications of differing productivity growth in Europe and the US is highly problematic. If we want to compare relative economic welfare in two countries over time, surely we want to compare the value of the goods each worker can produce in any given year, tracked over time.

Think about it. Do you really want to claim that Dutch workers were much more productive than U.S. workers in the year 2000 because the goods they produced per hour, although roughly equal in value to the goods produced per hour by US workers at that time, would eventually be worth much more than US production at prices that didn’t prevail at the time — but would prevail two decades later, in 2020? Huh? Yet, when using constant-price productivity comparisons, that is exactly the claim that people are making.

Now, I have tried to explain the apparent paradox that Europe has lower productivity growth than the US but has not seen a decline in relative output per hour at current prices by pointing to the fact that the US and European economies produce different mixes of goods, with the US mix tilted toward high-tech goods with rapid productivity growth but falling relative prices. I’m open to alternative explanations of the US-EU paradox. But the paradox is there and needs explanation.

OK, as I read Aghion et al they offer four criticisms of my analysis, as follows:

First, international comparisons of GDP using purchasing power parity are problematic and unreliable: This is, of course, true. But estimates of real GDP, which are supposed to let us compare GDP within a single country in different years, are also, and I would argue equally, problematic. In a sense both comparisons of different national economies at a single point in time and comparisons of a single national economy at different points in time are imperfect metaphors resting on imperfect numbers. But I’m not aware of any reason to believe that these imperfections bias the comparisons I’ve been making in any systematic way.

Second, productivity at constant national prices has risen much faster in the US than in Europe. Why, yes. That’s not a refutation of my analysis, it’s precisely where I started — I wanted to understand how to reconcile these different rates of productivity growth with the fact that relative European productivity and purchasing power at current prices have not declined. The same data that underly the chart above show this for US and NL productivity at 2020 prices:

Note: The source includes a chart titled "GDP per hour, 2020 prices, 2000=100" showing the US rising significantly higher than NL between 2000 and 2024.

These numbers show US productivity rising 1.6 percent per year, while NL productivity rises only 0.6 percent per year. But that comparison is already incorporated in my discussion. So citing such numbers as a supposed refutation of my analysis simply misses the point. In particular, I have no idea why Aghion et al believe that a table showing multiple estimates of higher productivity growth in the US contributes to the discussion.

Third, “Current PPPs and national deflators are giving sharply different answers to what at first sight looks like the same price question, but as we saw, is not.” Indeed. That’s exactly the point I’ve been trying to make. The important point is to ask which is the right question — and if we’re asking whether Europe is falling behind in purchasing power and living standards, PPPs, which say that it isn’t, are the right measure.

A related point: Aghion et al assert as a problem with current-price comparisons that “If the US produces more of the goods whose prices fall rapidly, then valuing both economies at today’s prices can make part of the earlier volume gain look smaller.” Color me confused. That’s not a problem with these comparisons — it is precisely the mechanism I invoke to explain the apparent US-EU growth paradox. See the formal model I laid out!

Finally, Aghion et al assert that the U.S. lead in technology “has led to higher US wages and profits, and the gap is widening each year.” OK, that’s the crux of the discussion. But this assertion — which they don’t back with any data — is simply untrue. And I began this whole discussion with the observation that it isn’t true. The sum of profits and wages is factor income, which is by definition equal to GDP. Let me switch from the Netherlands to the euro area as a whole, which has somewhat lower GDP per capita than the US adjusted for differences in the price level. But this gap has not widened over time:

Note: The source includes a chart titled "Euro area GDP per capita at PPP" showing the ratio to the US fluctuating between 2000 and 2024, ending near 0.77.

Or, if you want an independent data source, look at mean household income as estimated by LIS, the cross-national data center in Luxembourg. Between 2000 and 2021, these data show nominal income rising 3.1 percent annually in the Netherlands, 3.3 percent in the U.S.. Given slightly lower inflation in Europe, this does not show a widening gap. My guess is that people simply assume that the gap must have widened because they know about the standard productivity growth comparisons. But my whole point is that these comparisons don’t mean what people think they mean.

The bottom line here is that while I could of course be wrong about the US-EU comparison, the Aghion et al critique doesn’t make the case that I’m wrong. The data that they claim refute my argument are basically the same data I used to make that argument and are completely consistent with what I’ve been saying. They are, in fact, exactly what my attempts to model the paradox predict we’d see.

Again, I’m quite willing to be proved wrong. But if we’re going to have a serious discussion, the critiques have to go beyond simply restating productivity data that show Europe lagging. They need to acknowledge the reality that despite these data, comparisons between the US and Europe at each point in time don’t show the gap between Europe and the United States widening, and at least try to explain why. 

Progress Ireland: The Movement to Fix the Infrastructure Crisis

 'The system's hungry for ideas': The monthly meet-up dedicated to fixing the infrastructure crisis

Between its push for garden homes to its links to Stripe boss John Collison, Progress Ireland is a growing presence in Irish policy.

9.36am, 30 May 2026

IT WAS THE former tánaiste Mary Harney who once declared Ireland needed to be more like Boston than Berlin, but in the upstairs of Doheny and Nesbitt’s pub at Baggot Street in Dublin, the plan is to make it more like Texas. The bar – a popular watering hole for politicians that is just around the corner from Government Buildings – is the venue for what has become a monthly meetup for Progress Ireland. Formed three years ago, the think tank has come to the fore in recent months, due in part to its recent push for garden homes that has now been adopted by the government, but also because of one of its billionaire funders, Stripe boss John Collison.

Its chief executive and founder Sean Keyes pointed to Dallas, Houston and Austin as places Ireland can draw inspiration from during this week’s meetup in Dublin city centre. “In Austin and Dallas, there was a big build-to-rent boom where rents dropped from the peak they saw during Covid,” he told The Journal. After increasing supply by 30% in some cases, around 5% was shaved off rent and house prices.

While Keyes accepts that Ireland’s planning system is a far cry from one of the most free-market-led US states in the home of capitalism, he wants us to learn from them so we can “simplify” our own planning system and intensify construction. Ways of doing this, Keyes argues, extend to scrapping the requirement for planning permission to bring more beds into the system, like with garden homes. Dubbed ‘seomraí’ by Progress Ireland, but derided as ‘beds-in-sheds’ by sceptics, they are viewed by the likes of Progress Ireland as a way of giving cheaper options to renters suffering in Ireland’s housing crisis.

The government proposes that modular units of between 32 and 45 square metres in size in gardens at the back of people’s homes will be exempt from planning permission. They can be rented out privately under the Rent-A-Room scheme, where people can earn up to €14,000 tax-free each year.

But the research group has also increasingly found itself getting noticed due to its financial backing by Collison, who has weighed in to the debate on Ireland’s infrastructure crisis. In Doheney and Nesbitt’s on Wednesday, Keyes addressed a crowd of roughly 15 people who had turned up on a roasting, hot evening to hear about his plans for Ireland’s housing and infrastructure woes. In a 2,500-word essay for the Irish Times last year, the Limerick tech entrepreneur slammed the lengthy delays facing major water and housing projects.

Progress Ireland has been looking to build on its funder’s essay, with Keyes describing how the government and the wider political system is “hungry for ideas” as it tries to solve some of the country’s most pressing difficulties. “Obviously there is frustration in Ireland with our problems. Maybe where we’ve tapped into something is we’re not negative in any way, we try to be constructive,” he said.

Abundance

The event attracted a combination of planners, wind energy consultants and others that would probably be happy to be described as policy nerds. Keyes wants to see the following turn into a “movement” of “tens of thousands” and here, at least, there is real interest. These get-togethers have also proven fruitful for Progress since it started hosting them last year.

Sarah Scales started attending after reading a US book co-authored by New York Times writer Ezra Klein called Abundance – the book was cited by a number of people at Wednesday’s gathering and has become a bible for many in these circles. At its core, the book argues that strides made on environmental legislation over recent decades now thwart development in ways that were never intended. It proposes resolving these as a way to reinvigorate political parties. At ground level, this means trying to resolve issues with ‘Nimby’ objectors and instead wants people to become Yimbys – or ‘Yes In My Back Yard’ – for new housing and infrastructure.

“It was a different way of thinking,” Scales told The Journal. She left her job at a startup firm Bright Flag and is now Progress Ireland’s first press officer. Another attendee, a retired machinery wholesaler, shook Keyes’s hand as he told him he drove into the city centre from Straffan in Co Kildare after reading a Progress Ireland newsletter earlier that morning.

Elsewhere at the gathering, two young planners – one who works at local council level, another from the private sector – explained to The Journal that they felt Progress Ireland was “coming up with solutions” to logjams they face in their own jobs. “It gives you a bit of hope that something can be done and there’s a positivity to it,” one planner aged in his 20s said.

However, the same men expressed misgivings about the garden homes policy. While they felt the policy will be positive for giving people a stepping stone to more sustainable housing, they also felt that it was “admitting defeat” that homing people in back gardens was now a measure to be pursued.

Political criticism

The plans pursued by Progress Ireland have also seen them attract criticism from TDs. People Before Profit’s Paul Murphy recently claimed at an Oireachtas committee that the lobbying effort is part of a “corporate takeover” to remove “democratic oversight” from the planning system.

“In the last month or so we’ve noticed an uptick in people having a go at us,” Keyes said. Keyes said the criticisms by “fringe” TDs have left some of his five-strong team feeling “dispirited” about their work. “In my view, if Progress Ireland is being effective and having an impact in any way, by definition it’s going to attract opposition,” he said, before borrowing a quote attributed to various US politicians: “If you want to make an enemy, change something".

Asked by one attendee if the political establishment is listening to Progress, it was pointed out that recent weeks have seen Keyes address a conference for Department of Public Expenditure officials, where he urged them to loosen the reins on major projects like Metrolink. So despite these strides made in government circles, is Keyes disappointed that the group has not seen more takeup aside from the homes in the backyard?

“Honestly, no,” he said in response, before referring to one of the current government’s flagship plans that he sees as linked to Progress. The task force is aiming to solve the infrastructure crisis by aligning different government departments on big projects, covering water, the environment, planners and more.

But to look at it in another way, we should consider what was taking place nearby in Leinster House at the Fine Gael parliamentary party meeting: the Tánaiste was busy outlining plans to “overhaul” rural housing policy to make it far easier to build one-off housing. The proposed removal of restrictions in the planning system, combined with the desire to build much more homes, echoes Progress Ireland’s own belief system – and maybe a sign that its influence goes beyond the garden homes plan. Measures such as the Critical Infrastructure Bill are signs that the tide has been moving in this direction, with the government taking these steps amid a wider desperation at infrastructure failings in the political system across Europe and the US.

Will prices ever drop?

Before we finish up, Keyes touches on a hot debate in the way out of Ireland’s housing crisis. It centres around whether increasing supply of homes will actually result in what so many people want: lower house prices and lower rents.

Turbocharging supply is sometimes rejected by some experts in the field as failing to capture the whole picture around the complex housing system, but Housing Minister and Taoiseach have regularly pointed to how building all types of housing – whether it’s one-off homes, garden units, or smaller apartments – is the best way to bring down the cost of housing.

Progress Ireland is a firm believer in this. It wants the government to make market conditions favourable to boost supply, particularly over interventions such as rent caps. Housing officials have expressed doubt over whether the government’s target of 300,000 homes by 2031 can be met, but Keyes thinks that even if they are, it may not be enough.

Prices can “definitely drop” with enough supply, he continued, while conceding that there is a “big weakness” in this point of view. “If you do add 5% to national housing stock it will absolutely drive down rents,” Keyes said. But he added: “The big weakness of Yimby and Progress Ireland and our worldview is, yeah, maybe we are empirically correct about supply driving affordability, but you really have to build an awful lot. You have to double or more the amount you build every year to make a dent. I will concede that and that’s what we’re working on”.

Some in power may well agree with several parts of Progress Ireland’s platform, but they will be hoping Keyes is not correct on that front.

Newspaper Summary - 020626

 The article titled “Monsoon Dampener” in the front-page highlights corresponds to the following full report found on page 10 of the June 2, 2026, edition of The Hindu Business Line:

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Govt lowers kharif fertilizer demand as IMD forecasts deficit monsoon rainfall

TAKING STOCK. Agriculture Ministry steps in after 20% of fertilizer subsidy had been exhausted in first two months WAR EFFECT. The subsidy may top ₹3 lakh crore in the current fiscal if the problem in West Asia persists till the end of kharif

Prabhudatta Mishra New Delhi

On a day the Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan launched a month-long farmer awareness campaign to reduce chemical fertilizers by engaging agriculture scientists in extension work, which is normally overseen by the States, the Centre announced that the demand for the five major crop nutrients has been reduced for the kharif season.

Briefing the media on the fertilizer situation after the geopolitical crises deepened with the Iran war on February 28, Aparna S Sharma, Additional Secretary in the Department of Fertilizers, said 20 per cent of the subsidy allocated for FY27 had been exhausted in the first two months of the current fiscal. But, she said that the Department of Fertilizers would raise the demand with the Finance Ministry as and when the subsidy is spent.

In the 2026-27 Budget, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had provided ₹1,70,944.53 crore for fertilizer subsidy, including ₹1,16,805 crore for the urea sector (both domestic and imported) and ₹54,000 crore for the phosphorus (P) and potash (K) sectors. In 2025-26, the fertilizer subsidy was pegged at ₹1,86,630.63 crore (Revised Estimate), which has since gone up due to the war-induced surge in global rates from March 1.

MONSOON IMPACT The fertilizer subsidy may exceed ₹3 lakh crore in the current fiscal if the problem in West Asia persists till the end of kharif because of the current high global prices of raw materials as well as finished products, an official said last week. He said that the subsidy could even reach ₹3.5 lakh crore if the current situation — high global prices and closure of the Strait of Hormuz — continues through the rabi season.

Sharma said that in view of the “below normal” monsoon forecast by the India Meteorological Department and the threat of El Nino, the Agriculture Ministry had lowered its demand estimate for the kharif season. Accordingly, urea demand, which was previously estimated to be 19.4 million tonnes (mt), has been cut to 19 mt, she said.

The IMD had actually forecast the monsoon rainfall to be “below normal” as early as in mid-April, and it recently reduced the quantity of rainfall by 2 percentage points — from 92 per cent of the long period average (LPA) to 90 per cent.

PLEA TO FARMERS The Additional Secretary said that fertilizer stocks stand at 51 per cent of the requirement for the kharif season, which is higher than the conventionally maintained 33 per cent due to advance stocking and improved logistics management. India’s fertilizer production was 10.48 mt post the West Asia crisis and with imports of 2.76 mt, total availability reached 13.24 mt during March-May, she said.

Meanwhile, Chouhan on Monday launched the nationwide “Khet Bachao Abhiyan” (Save the soil) from Ramasiya village in Madhya Pradesh under his parliamentary constituency. He appealed to the farmers to avoid the indiscriminate use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides and instead apply manure according to the soil’s requirements based on test results.

In the Inter-Ministerial briefing on the impact of the West Asia crisis on different sectors, Anupam Mishra, Additional Secretary in the Department of Consumer Affairs, said that the prices of cereals, pulses and sugar had remained stable, while that of potato, onion and tomato are range-bound, with no unusual volatility reported in the essential commodities.

Bank savings deposits fall sharply, term deposits increase

LUCRATIVE INTEREST. The proportion of term deposits in SCBs’ overall deposits increased to 61.6% at March-end 2026 from 61.1% at March-end 2025.

Our Bureau Mumbai

The composition of scheduled commercial banks’ (SCBs) aggregate deposits has undergone a structural shift over the last five years, characterized by a decline in the share of savings deposits and an increase in term deposits, according to RBI data.

This comes in the backdrop of savings deposit rates going down from 2.70/3.00 per cent in March 2022 to 2.50 per cent in March 2026, even as term deposit rates of more than one-year tenor rose from 5.00/5.60 per cent to 6.00/6.60 per cent in the same period.

The proportion of SCBs’ savings deposits declined from 34.6 per cent in March 2022 to 28.7 per cent in March 2026. In tandem, the proportion of term deposits, which usually attract higher interest rates, ascended from 55.2 per cent to 61.6 per cent during the said period.

The proportion of term deposits in SCBs’ overall deposits increased to 61.6 per cent as of March-end 2026 from 61.1 per cent as of March-end 2025.

GROWTH MOMENTUM Simultaneously, the proportion of savings deposits and current account (CA) deposits in banks’ overall deposits declined to 28.7 per cent (from 29.1 per cent as at March-end 2025) and 9.7 per cent (from 9.8 per cent), respectively.

During FY26, public sector banks acted as the predominant driver of deposits accretion, accounting for 50.8 per cent of the incremental deposits, followed by private sector banks with a contribution of 38.6 per cent, according to the RBI’s Annual Basic Statistical Return (BSR) on Deposits with SCBs.

Growth (year-on-year/y-o-y) of deposits with SCBs accelerated during FY26 and stood at 11.5 per cent as of end-March 2026, compared to 10.6 per cent a year ago.

HOUSEHOLD SECTOR The RBI noted that although the share of deposits of the household sector moderated in the recent period, it remained the primary contributor, accounting for 59.3 per cent of total deposits as of end-March 2026.

On the other hand, the share of deposits held by the non-financial sector increased to 18.5 per cent in March 2026 from 17.7 per cent in March 2025, while the share for financial corporations rose from 6.8 per cent to 7.8 per cent in the same period.

DEPOSITS BY SIZE The central bank stated that within total term deposits, the ‘₹1 crore and above’ size-class accounted for 46.3 per cent as of end-March 2026, mainly driven by the ‘₹5 crore and above’ size-class, which contributed 34.8 per cent. The share of term deposits up to ₹5 lakh stood at 17.8 per cent.

The share of term deposits with an original maturity of one to three years rose steadily to 69.8 per cent in March 2026 from 50.4 per cent in March 2022, whereas the proportion of term deposits with a maturity of up to one year fell to 8.8 per cent from 16.7 per cent during the same period.

The article titled “As Diplomacy Drags...” in the front-page briefs refers to the following full report found on page 9 of the June 2, 2026, edition of The Hindu Business Line:

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Iran and US trade strikes, Kuwait comes under fire as diplomacy drags on

Reuters Dubai

Iran and the US said they had both carried out strikes on military targets, and each accused the other of acting aggressively as diplomatic efforts to end three months of war drag on.

The US military said it had, at the weekend, struck Iranian air defences, a ground control station and two drones that were threatening ships after “aggressive Iranian actions”, including shooting down a US drone over international waters. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Monday it had targeted an air base used by the US in response to an attack on southern Iran.

It did not identify the base, but Kuwait activated air defences on Monday and denounced Iranian missile and drone attacks, which it said were undermining efforts to reduce tensions in the region.

ISRAEL PUSHES DEEPER

Oil prices, which have risen sharply since the start of the war, gained more than 3 per cent on Monday after the strikes. Tensions were also fuelled by Israel ordering troops to move further into Lebanon against Tehran-backed Hezbollah, in a conflict that was reignited by the US-Israeli war against Iran.

The US and Iran have sporadically exchanged strikes since a ceasefire took effect in early April, while Pakistan has been mediating efforts to secure a more durable agreement. An exchange of strikes last Thursday was described in similar terms by each side.

The war launched by the US and Israel on February 28 has killed thousands of people, mainly in Iran and Lebanon. It has also caused global economic pain by pushing up energy prices since Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global supply route for oil and liquefied natural gas.

TRUMP’S CALL

In a late-night social media post, US President Donald Trump did not mention the exchange of hostilities, repeating his assertion that Iran “really wants to make a deal”. He berated critics, including what he described as “seemingly unpatriotic Republicans”, for negative “chirping” about negotiations to end the conflict. “Just sit back and relax; it will all work out well in the end - It always does!” he said.

Despite Trump’s remarks, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei accused Washington on Monday of constantly shifting its negotiating stance and condemned what he called US aggressive action. “Negotiations have started amid severe suspicion and mistrust, and the exchange of messages is taking place in this atmosphere,” Baghaei said.

“The other party is constantly changing its views and putting forward new or contradictory demands (...) it is natural that this situation will prolong negotiations,” he said, adding that Tehran viewed Israeli actions in the region, including in Lebanon, as inseparable from those of the US.

Berkshire Hathaway to buy Taylor Morrison for $6.8 billion

Bloomberg

Berkshire Hathaway will acquire Taylor Morrison Home Corp in an all-cash deal worth about $6.8 billion, the first major purchase under CEO Greg Abel and a vote of confidence in the US housing market. The offer of $72.50 per common share represents a 24 per cent premium to the home builder’s latest closing price on Friday.

It’s the largest deal since Berkshire bought Occidental Petroleum Corp’s petrochemical business in January. “We are excited to welcome Taylor Morrison into Berkshire’s portfolio,” said Abel. “We expect to unify our site-built homebuilding operations into a combined platform enabling us to deliver the dream of homeownership to more Americans”.

India, Oman ‘energise’ new economic corridor

ROBUST PACT. The CEPA creates a framework for a more resilient, synchronised and broad-based economic partnership.

RAJESH AGRAWAL

The commercial ties between India and Oman echo across centuries, a shared history carried on the sails of ancient dhows and sustained through generations of cultural exchange. The India-Oman Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) will further strengthen this civilizational bond. At a moment when global trade is navigating geopolitical rivalries, supply-chain disruptions and growing protectionism, the agreement reflects India’s determination to deepen economic integration with trusted partners. Following the landmark pact with the UAE in 2022, the CEPA firmly anchors India’s growing economic engagement with the Gulf.

Bilateral trade has steadily expanded, reaching $11.18 billion in FY 2025-26, while services trade stood at $863 million in 2024. Economic ties have diversified beyond traditional commodities to include engineering goods, pharmaceuticals, and IT services. Yet significant untapped potential remains. By covering trade in goods and services, investment, professional mobility, and regulatory cooperation, the CEPA creates a comprehensive framework for a more resilient, synchronised and broad-based economic partnership.

A GATEWAY FOR EXPORT GROWTH

The CEPA provides duty-free market access for Indian exports across 98.08 per cent of Oman’s tariff lines. Prior to the agreement, only around 15 per cent of India’s exports entered Oman duty-free under the Most Favoured Nation regime, while the remainder faced duties of up to 5 per cent. Under the CEPA, 99.38 per cent of India’s current export volumes now enjoy duty-free entry.

For Indian exporters, the gains are significant. Demand will be driven by Oman’s investments in infrastructure, logistics, and industrial diversification under Oman’s Vision 2040. Engineering goods exports, valued at $875.83 million in FY 2024-25, are projected to rise to between $1.3 billion and $1.6 billion by 2030.

The textile and apparel sector will also gain a significant edge over regional competitors through zero-duty access, helping revitalise labour-intensive clusters such as Tirupur, Surat, Ludhiana, and Coimbatore, while generating employment.

Opportunities are far reaching and diverse. Oman’s import-dependent pharmaceutical market presents strong prospects for Indian firms. Faster regulatory approvals, recognition of quality certifications, and duty-free access for key products will reduce compliance costs and improve market penetration. Agricultural and food-processing exports, including rice, processed foods, spices, and confectionery, will benefit too.

OPENING MARKETS

Consistent with India’s recent trade agreements, the CEPA follows a balanced and calibrated approach. While India is opening markets to strengthen competitiveness and integrate into global value chains, it continues to protect sensitive sectors. Key agricultural products such as dairy and cereals, along with industries including rubber, textiles and footwear, remain safeguarded. This approach combines external market access with protection against domestic vulnerabilities.

India has committed to liberalising over 77 per cent of its tariff lines, covering nearly 95 per cent of imports from Oman. This grants a competitive advantage to Oman’s core exports, particularly industrial inputs such as methanol and anhydrous ammonia. Oman secures preferential market access across a broad range of metals and alloys, allowing our countries to capitalise on lower production costs.

For sectors where India maintains defensive interests, Oman has been granted access through Tariff Rate Quotas. This mechanism allows preferential exports of products such as dates, marble, and selected downstream petrochemicals within specified volume limits. This carefully crafted integration strengthens competitiveness while supporting vulnerable sectors during transition.

TRADE, TALENT AND TRUST

CEPA offers Indian service providers binding commitments across sectors where India enjoys clear strengths, including IT, professional services and construction. With provisions allowing up to 100 per cent foreign direct investment in several areas, Indian firms will gain greater opportunities to expand their presence in Oman.

The agreement is also a breakthrough for talent. By raising the Intra-Corporate Transferee ceiling to 50 per cent, Indian firms now have the flexibility to seamlessly deploy specialised staff and deepen their entrenched market presence. Furthermore, for the first time in any FTA, Oman has established a dedicated mobility regime for independent professionals.

As global demographic shifts cause factory labour shortages and modern manufacturing increasingly partners with AI and robotics, this provision sets a powerful global precedent for Indian talent.

The CEPA also includes a dedicated healthcare annex that facilitates the integration of traditional systems such as Ayurveda into mainstream healthcare while streamlining licensing procedures for medical professionals. To top it off, a mandated Social Security Agreement negotiation will prospectively protect the Indian diaspora from the burden of dual contributions.

REGIONAL VALUE CHAINS

The India-Oman CEPA goes beyond tariffs by addressing non-tariff barriers through regulatory cooperation, harmonised standards and conformity assessment procedures. It reflects the high standards increasingly associated with India’s modern trade agreements and addresses many of the behind-the-border obstacles that impede commerce. India is laying the foundations for a more integrated regional trade architecture. Collectively, India’s FTA partners now account for nearly 67 per cent of global GDP and around 75 per cent of global imports in goods and services.

Oman occupies a unique geographic position at the crossroads of the Gulf, East Africa, and the wider Indian Ocean region. Omani logistics and industrial hubs such as Sohar, Duqm and Salalah can integrate value chains that combine Indian manufacturing expertise and talent with the wider Middle East and Africa. The result is a partnership built for regional connectivity and growth.

Trade agreements succeed when they create confidence—for businesses to invest, for workers to acquire new skills and for economies to build enduring partnerships. CEPA achieves precisely that, transforming a centuries-old relationship into a strategic economic partnership designed for the realities of the twenty-first century.

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The writer is Union Commerce Secretary. Views are personal.

Can India reap AI gains?

Harsimran Sandhu & Susmi Routray

FRONTIER MODELS. India still trails the US and China. That hinges on having ownership of AI capability.

Artificial intelligence, particularly generative AI and agentic AI, is increasingly being positioned as the productivity engine of this decade. The promise is compelling: faster coding, automated customer service, instant research, lower operating costs, and smarter decision-making. For India, AI could unlock major productivity gains across industries. But the more important question is not whether AI will create value. It is: who will ultimately capture that value?

To understand this, one must look beneath the visible AI applications. At the core of generative AI lies the large language model (LLM), which powers chatbots, copilots, enterprise agents, retrieval-augmented systems (RAGs), and a growing ecosystem of AI applications. These systems work by processing massive volumes of text through transformer architectures and continuously predicting the next token to generate responses.

STRATEGIC LAYER

The real strategic layer, however, is the foundation model itself — the base intelligence layer on which AI applications are built. Today, this foundational layer is dominated by global technology firms such as OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta, and leading Chinese AI companies.

Equally critical is compute infrastructure, particularly GPUs (graphics processing units). Foundation models require enormous parallel computing power for both training and inference. If foundation models are the brain of AI, GPUs are the engines that make them operational. Yet this layer too remains heavily concentrated, with Nvidia dominating advanced AI chips globally. This creates India’s strategic dilemma.

Indian businesses will inevitably adopt AI across customer service, coding, testing, HR, finance, marketing, legal review, and back-office operations. Firms will become faster and more efficient, while reducing operational costs. However, there is also the risk that India could simultaneously automate domestic jobs while paying foreign AI platforms for the intelligence powering those very systems.

In such a scenario, Indian companies may improve productivity, but the highest-margin value could flow outward — to the owners of foundation models, GPUs, cloud infrastructure, and AI platforms. India could emerge as a large consumer and implementer of AI, while core AI ownership remains concentrated abroad. This would create a new form of digital dependency.

India has begun responding to this challenge. Initiatives such as Sarvam.ai, Bharat Gen, and Gnani.ai represent important early steps towards sovereign AI capability. Yet these efforts alone may not be sufficient. India still trails the US and China in frontier foundation models, access to advanced GPUs, deep AI research ecosystems, cloud infrastructure, and large-scale private capital. However, India can build meaningful strengths in Indian-language AI, voice AI, and enterprise applications serving public-sector and domestic use cases. Catching up at the frontier level, though, will require sustained investment and long-term strategic commitment.

Therefore, the debate is no longer “AI or no AI.” The real question is whether India will remain merely a user of AI, or become an owner of AI capability.

India needs affordable AI compute, sovereign foundation models, high-quality domestic datasets, AI-ready public infrastructure, strong governance frameworks, and large-scale workforce reskilling. Indian IT firms must also evolve beyond manpower-based billing models towards AI-led, IP-led, and outcome-based platforms.

AI can undoubtedly become India’s productivity engine. But without domestic control over models, compute, data, and platforms, it may ultimately become a productivity engine for someone else.

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Sandhu is Professor of Finance, and Routray is Professor of Information Technology Management, IMT Ghaziabad.

Newspaper Summary - 010626

 US may push India to lock in 18% tariff deal, offer Section 301 relief DEAL DYNAMICS. It may seek deeper tariff cuts; India wants assured trade advantage Amiti Sen New Delhi

To clinch an early free trade deal with India, the US is likely to press New Delhi to accept a tariff package that locks in import levies on Indian goods around 18 per cent, as agreed to in the February framework deal. This will be backed by an assurance that more penalties won’t be added after the ongoing Section 301 investigations against India conclude, sources said.

The high-level US trade team visiting India on June 1-4 to push negotiations to conclude the interim trade deal may also throw in a sweetener, guaranteeing further tariff reductions in the future aligned with the reduction in America’s trade deficit with India, a source told businessline.

TARIFF LOCK-IN “The US is keen to close the deal very soon, but it may take a while for its domestic tariff situation to settle down. That is why negotiators are likely to lock in a tariff rate around the 18 per cent level agreed to in February. This means additional penalties will not be imposed even if the Section 301 investigations result in an adverse verdict for India in the coming months,” the source explained.

However, India remains uncertain about what tariffs competitors like Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia or Cambodia will face, which determines how good its own deal is.

“Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has stated that while India looks forward to sealing a bilateral pact, its primary objective remains securing a competitive advantage over other economies. If India agrees to a tariff level now, it needs to be sure it fares better than others,” a second source said.

PACT FRAMEWORK While this interim deal will focus mainly on tariffs and non-tariff barriers, the pact will subsequently expand to include elements like intellectual property, government procurement, investment protection, data flows, and customs and trade facilitation.

Under the February 2 framework, the US offered to lower reciprocal tariffs to 18 per cent from 25 per cent and remove the 25 per cent penalty for buying Russian oil, over and above the normal MFN tariffs. In return, India agreed to significantly reduce tariffs on US industrial and agricultural products. The US removed the oil tariffs, but reciprocal tariffs remained.

However, a landmark February 20 US Supreme Court judgment invalidated those reciprocal tariffs, leaving most countries facing a temporary 10 per cent global tariff above regular MFN rates.

The US’ counter-argument to India’s caution is that its competitors also face Section 301 investigations. “Every country realises Section 301 penalties could be huge. It will suit competitors to implement older trade deals clinched before the reciprocal tariffs were invalidated. The US is starting talks with many of them,” the first source said.

India’s trade surplus with the US declined in FY26 to $34.41 billion from $40.88 billion in FY25 as imports of American goods increased. However, the US remained India’s largest export market in FY26 at $87.31 billion.

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TRADE BARGAIN

• US wants India to accept capped tariffs of 18% that it had agreed to in the February framework.
• It is likely to offer a guarantee that additional penalties under Section 301 will not be slapped.
• Further tariff rollbacks for India, tied to the narrowing of the US trade deficit, may be proposed.
• New Delhi wants assurance of tariff advantage over competitors such as Vietnam and Bangladesh.
• Interim deal to focus on tariffs and non-tariff barriers, and will be expanded to include investments, IPR and government procurement.

CBSE admits that there are vulnerabilities in evaluation portal, more than week later Meenakshi Verma Ambwani S Ronendra Singh New Delhi

Days after asserting that its online answer sheet evaluation system had been “neither compromised nor suffered from vulnerabilities”, the CBSE on Sunday acknowledged that weaknesses had been identified in the OnMark portal operated by its service provider and said that they had been contained.

In a statement posted on X, the Board said: “We have been closely monitoring the vulnerabilities in the On-Mark portal of our service provider that are being flagged in the public domain. An expert team of cybersecurity professionals has been deployed over the last few days from across various arms of the government and IITs to fortify these systems, including taking them over to a more secure setup. The identified vulnerabilities have been contained, and other exploitable weaknesses are being ruled out.”

The Board also said: “We are grateful to all alert citizens and ethical hackers pointing out such weaknesses, and have gotten in touch with some of them directly. We request any others to reach out to our security teams at secy-cbse@nic.in for any further inputs.”

However, 19-year-old ethical hacker Nisarga Adhikary, who has been publicly flagging the alleged security flaws in the system, disputed the CBSE’s assertion that it had reached out to those raising concerns.

ETHICAL HACKER’S REPLY “I mailed their security team hours ago,” Adhikary told businessline. “I haven’t heard back,” he said, adding that “no one has contacted me”. He alleged that “they are still being dishonest and deceiving”.

In his post on X on Sunday, Adhikary alleged that an AWS bucket containing 2026 answer sheets and question papers could be accessed without authorisation.

“CBSE people didn’t configure their AWS bucket properly and now we can paginate & enumerate all their media, which has 2026 answer sheets and question papers. ListObjectsV2 works without any auth, and the bucket root is listable too — anyone on the internet can download any scanned booklet — across institutions. Multiple institutions are using the same bucket, insanely insecure. (sic),” he said.

CHECKS UNDERWAY CBSE did not specifically address these latest allegations but maintained that the vulnerabilities identified in the system had been contained and that checks were underway to rule out other exploitable weaknesses.

Fire at Hyundai Mobis plant near Chennai; no casualties reported T E Raja Simhan Chennai

A major fire broke out on Sunday at the Hyundai Mobis facility near Hyundai Motor India’s manufacturing plant at Irungattukottai on the outskirts of Chennai. No casualties were reported, though firefighting operations continued for several hours as the authorities worked to bring the blaze under control.

According to sources, the fire is believed to have originated in the soldering line of the assembly section before spreading rapidly through the plant. Multiple fire tenders were deployed to contain the flames, with firefighters continuing efforts even as the report was filed.

The facility supplies audio and electronic components to Hyundai Motor India and is located in close proximity to the automaker’s manufacturing complex at Irungattukottai. Company sources said it was too early to assess the extent of the damage.

Officials indicated that a detailed evaluation would be carried out once the fire was completely extinguished and the site declared safe for inspection. It will take a day or two to get full details, according to sources.

The cause of the blaze is yet to be officially determined, and an investigation is expected to be launched to ascertain the circumstances leading to the incident.

The fire has raised concerns about disruptions to component supplies, although there was no immediate word on whether production at Hyundai Motor India’s plant would be affected. The company has not yet made an official statement.

The protein-peptide bonds that heal JOINT ENDEAVOUR. Researchers at IIT-Bombay engineer stapled peptides to aid in the fight against cancer and other diseases K Bharat Kumar

Peptide-based drug discovery has gained currency in the past decade. This branch of pharmaceuticals promises solutions to tricky health issues such as cancer. Now, two researchers from IIT-Bombay and one from the Technical University of Darmstadt, Germany, have reported work that suggests ways to improve peptide-based drug discovery.

Inside every living cell, thousands of proteins constantly interact with one another, switching genes on and off, repairing damage, carrying signals and deciding whether a cell should live or die. Many diseases, including cancer, arise when some of these protein–protein interactions go wrong.

One such interaction involves two proteins called p53 and MDM2. Normally these two proteins function together in a checks-and-balance manner. The p53 protein is a sort of sentinel — it triggers the destruction of cells that have gone bad, such as with cancer. Excess of p53 can be a problem. MDM2 comes in and suppresses p53. This is fine but sometimes p53 is less or MDM2 is more; when this happens, MDM2 prevents p53 — the guardian angel — from doing its job. Keeping track of such happenings in cells has given rise to the study of ‘protein-protein interaction’.

PRECISE STAPLING Scientists have discovered that stapled peptides can bind themselves to MDM2 and prevent it from suppressing p53. This is because scientists have engineered the stapled peptides to resemble p53, and MDM2 attaches to them. This leaves p53 free to do its job, without hindrance from MDM2.

Drug discovery is about making the right kind of stapled peptide. In a paper, the three researchers have used computer simulations to demonstrate that medical researchers should look not just at protein combinations but also the behaviour of the molecules in the solvent in which the proteins are immersed. In their study, the researchers focused on the behaviour of water molecules — the solvent — in the presence of stapled peptides.

They found that stapled peptides also altered the behaviour of water molecules. When a stapled peptide binds to its target protein, the water molecules gain ‘entropy’ or freedom, while the peptide itself becomes more stable and rigid. The behaviour of the water molecules could be manipulated to create more effective and ‘stickier’ medicines. Put simply, this means medicines (stapled peptides) can be made more effective by controlling how a drug interacts with the water molecules rather than by focusing only on the drug molecules’ shape and binding capability.

A more stable peptide binds better with its target — its efficacy increases. “Peptide-based drug discovery is an emerging field... Using in-silico (computer-based) approaches, effective peptide drug candidates can be identified and filtered at early stages. However, the detailed thermodynamics at the binding interface are often overlooked,” the researchers say in a joint statement to businessline. They point out that in many ongoing drug discovery pipelines, the ‘entropic effects’ (freedom of movement of molecules) are largely ignored.

THERAPEUTIC PATHWAY If a peptide’s binding property is improved, will it translate into a drug that requires lower doses or has fewer side effects?

“Stronger binding affinity can provide several practical advantages, including lower therapeutic doses, reduced off-target effects and potentially lower treatment costs. Importantly, understanding how stapling affects both peptide structure and surrounding water dynamics provides a... basis for the rational design of more effective peptide therapeutics,” the researchers respond in their statement.

However, they caution that translating the computational insights into clinical applications calls for more extensive experimental and clinical validation. Interestingly, research into stapled peptides could well open the door to improved treatment for other diseases. “Researchers can identify optimal stapling positions and cross-linker chemistries that enhance binding affinity. This strategy expands opportunities for targeting challenging protein-protein interactions in areas such as oncology and immunology,” the statement says.

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PROTEINS AND PEPTIDES

• Peptides are short chains of amino acids. In a sense, they are “dwarf proteins”.
• Most people know proteins as body-building molecules — which is true — but there are thousands of different proteins. For example, snake venom is a cocktail of proteins, as is haemoglobin.
• Both peptides and proteins are chains of amino acids. An amino acid is a molecule that has carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen, oxygen and a ‘side chain’ of molecules with other elements like sulphur. Since there are about 20 ‘side chains’, there are as many amino acids.
• Stapled peptides are two peptides linked by a chemical. They are, therefore, engineered molecules.

‘Over 600 State bills passed in 2025 with limited scrutiny’ Our Bureau New Delhi

The latest PRS report on Annual Review of State Laws 2025 reveals a disturbing trend of State Assemblies rushing through over 600 bills in 365 days of 2025, displaying a lack of severe legislative oversight over issues critical to democracy and government functioning. Instead of threadbare debates and discussions on legislation, many Assemblies have turned into rubber stamps, data compiled by the report in May 2026 suggested.

As many as 30 per cent of the bills were passed on the day they were introduced, with the Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, Jharkhand, Mizoram, Puducherry and Punjab Assemblies passing all legislation either on the day of introduction or the next. States that passed a higher number of bills often did so in a single sitting. Karnataka passed 17 bills in one sitting and 12 in another, while Assam passed 14 bills in a single sitting, flagged the PRS report.

Even though State legislatures passing over 600 bills in 2025 is worrisome, the number of legislation being cleared is on the rise. Notably, in 2024, the Assemblies had cleared a total of about 500 bills. Karnataka had passed the highest number of bills at 84 in 34 sitting days, followed by Assam at 60 bills in 21 sitting days.

NUMBER OF SESSIONS The number of legislative sessions held in Vidhan Sabhas and Vidhan Parishads have also seen a sharp decline. State Assemblies met for an average of just 24 days in 2025, pointed out the report. It, however, marked a marginal increase from 21 days in 2024 and 23 days in 2023. Of the average 24 days of Assemblies conducting businesses, in Nagaland, it met only for seven days. This stood at 43 days for Odisha.

Some States have set minimum targets for annual sitting days, either through legislation or the rules governing their procedures. Barring Himachal Pradesh, no State has met its prescribed target.

The Constitution requires no more than passage of six months between two sittings of a State Assembly. The report also stated that all States met this requirement in 2025. In several cases, this was achieved with the States meeting just enough to meet the requirement.

For example, Assam convened a one-day session in June, between March and November sessions. Gujarat, after adjourning in March, met for three days in September. In Rajasthan, the gap between two sessions was five months and eight days, while in Meghalaya, the interval was five months and 26 days.

Most sittings occur in the first quarter of the year when the States meet to discuss and pass their budget.