Newspaper Summary 060726

 The article titled Trump’s target is a Quick Edit found on Page 1 of the sources. The following is the full text of the article:

Trump’s target

(Quick Edit)

If statements by US presidents are to be taken seriously, a point that wasn’t under much debate till the ascent of Donald Trump, America is taking an interesting turn., As part of a speech to celebrate America’s 250th birthday, Trump took on “communists” within. While it had faint echoes of the country’s McCarthyist era of anxiety over ‘reds under our beds,’ he did not rail against any ‘evil empire’ of that ideological bent overseas.

Between the end of World II and that of the Cold War 35 years ago, fighting global communism had been a US obsession. Some saw Islamist geopolitics as the next big threat it had identified. But rightist White House rhetoric is now focused on an alleged red shift in internal politics. The odd part is what’s stirring it.

Run-of-the-mill welfare moves by Democrats like health-insurance coverage and subsidies for household-use items have been labelled ‘communist’ by Republican party leaders. A proper red test, however, would ask if a new policy infringes the right to own assets privately. One that vaguely seems inspired by the spirit of ‘from each according to ability and to each according to needs’ doesn’t hurt capitalism. To the contrary, good welfare provisions could strengthen it.

The article titled “How no-egg meal shortchanges India’s children” is a Mint Primer by Sayantan Bera, found on Page 1 of the sources,. The full text and its key points are reproduced below:

How no-egg meal shortchanges India’s children

Children in Kolkata’s government schools won’t get eggs in mid-day meals as the new West Bengal government has entrusted meal preparation to a religious organization that shuns non-vegetarian foods. Mint explores whether India’s children can afford the nutritional cost.

What’s happening in West Bengal? The new BJP-led state government announced on 22 June that Iskcon, a Hindu religious organization, will provide “nutritious” meals to children attending government schools in Kolkata. Iskcon does not serve non-vegetarian food, including eggs, meat and fish, or ingredients such as onion and garlic. It has said animal-based proteins will be replaced with plant-based alternatives such as soy and legumes. But West Bengal is largely a non-vegetarian state and nutritionists argue that eggs are versatile yet a cheap source of protein, crucial to brain development and physical growth in children.

Which states serve eggs in mid-day meals? Most states in southern India serve eggs and fare better on child nutrition indicators. While Karnataka serves six eggs per week (one on each day), Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh provide five eggs per week. Schoolchildren in West Bengal and Bihar get just one egg per week, while states such as Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat and Rajasthan do not provide eggs at all. The Centre and states together spend between ₹12 and ₹18 per day per child on nutrition; since eggs cost ₹8-10 per piece, states providing 5-6 eggs per week usually spend out of their own budget.

Why are school meals so important? For children from poor families, these are often the most important meal of the day. The intervention has helped the country curb malnutrition: stunting (low height for age) among children under five fell from 38% in 2015-16 to 29% in 2023-24. However, nearly 32% of children under five continue to be underweight, and 85% of children in the 6- to 23-month age group do not receive an adequate and diversified diet.

Why does removing eggs raise concerns? While cultural and religious factors dictate dietary choices in India, the reality is that many Indian diets are rich in empty calories from cheap cereals. The 2024 dietary guidelines by the National Institute of Nutrition observed that 50-70% of the average Indian’s daily energy intake comes from cereals, while protein contributes just 7-9%, which is half the recommended level. Families are often unable to afford a diverse diet and are spending more on much cheaper ultra-processed junk food.

Can eggs be replaced by other food items? In terms of protein content, eggs can be replaced with dairy sources like paneer. However, 50gm of paneer (providing ~10gm protein) costs around ₹50, compared to just ₹10 for a 50gm boiled egg (~6.5gm protein). While soybeans have comparable protein levels, eggs boast a complete amino acid profile and better bioavailability.

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The Nutrition Gap

Underweight prevalence among children under 5 years of age (%), by states (Source: National Family Health Survey-6, 2023-24):

• Madhya Pradesh: 39.7%
• Bihar: 35.7%
• Gujarat: 35.5%
• Uttar Pradesh: 34.5%
• West Bengal: 28.5%
• Karnataka: 27.8%
• Tamil Nadu: 23.2%
• Andhra Pradesh: 23.2%
• Kerala: 17.8%
• INDIA AVERAGE: 31.8%

The article titled “Inside the glittering world of India’s GCC offices” is a Long Story by Madhurima Nandy, found on Page 10 of the sources. The full text is reproduced below:

Inside the glittering world of India’s GCC offices

Developers and asset owners in India are racing to woo global tenants, upgrading their realty play

On a weekday afternoon in June, the global capability hub of 7-Eleven in Bengaluru is buzzing. The bright neon signage at the entrance leads to the reception that mimics a store counter of the Dallas-based convenience retail major with its signature cold Slurpee vending machine and a hot coffee dispenser.

Each workstation has dual monitors, huddle spaces and single-seater focus rooms for ‘deep work’. There are meeting rooms of all sizes. But then, all meetings don’t need to be formal, so there is a colourful space with relaxed seating where a watch party (people gather to watch a show) can be hosted. Some take a break from work. They are at the simulated racing room, at the gym, or at the pickleball court.

Each of the six floors it occupies has a theme. There is a ‘digital forest’ that has a podcast room, a jazz club with a jukebox and karaoke stage, and a popcorn vending machine. There is the ‘Cars of 7-Eleven’ floor, which is inspired by the cars parked before 7-Eleven stores in the US. The walls are splashed with colourful graffiti and the 7-Eleven brand colours in red, orange and green.

The aim of this global capability centre (GCC) is to provide a great work experience. The average age of an employee here is 26 years and everything mentioned above caters to this age bracket. “The office plays a big role in making employees want to come to work,” said Malahar Pinnelli, vice-president and country leader, 7-Eleven Global Solution Center.

In fact, that’s the goal of all GCCs in India who have upped the game in how their office spaces look and feel. In turn, it is slowly reimagining the face of Indian office real estate.

International hub

India has quietly become the largest hub for GCCs. Office leasing took off this year on a strong note, led by GCCs, as they continue to deepen their footprint in the region. As per property advisory CBRE India’s estimates, GCCs leased 9.1 million sq. ft of office space during the January–March quarter, accounting for 44% of the total leasing.

Geographically, Bengaluru remained central to GCC activity, capturing the largest share, followed by Hyderabad and Delhi-National Capital Region. Premiumization of offices is an emerging trend; GCCs are only pushing the envelope further, with branding, location and employee experience being the key.

Just like GCCs are leaving no stone unturned to retain talent by creating premium workspaces, developers and office park owners such as real estate investment trusts (Reits) too are building and designing offices suited to their needs. To set up a GCC unit for Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Bengaluru, the design team of Embassy Reit made two trips to the bank’s Sydney headquarters to understand its culture and philosophy. The fit-out process is currently on for a 1.1 million sq. ft workspace across eight levels at the Embassy Manyata Business Park.

The bank’s new office will have a massive grandstand with amphitheatre seating, stress relief zones with gaming on each floor, wellness access, and sleeping pods. Since the kitchen is an important feature in the Sydney office, the Bengaluru GCC will also have an elaborate food programme with live cooking.

“GCCs spend an equal amount or more on fitouts and technology compared to what developers spend on construction,” said Sriram Khattar, vice-chairman and managing director, DLF Rental Business.

Global DNA

India’s GCC story has moved well beyond cost arbitrage to housing critical functions and high-value talent. Global companies want to make their Indian employees feel part of the wider organization.

Take Walmart Global Tech’s large facility on Bengaluru’s Outer Ring Road. Jane Peter Lobo, an analyst at the company, said the workspace made him feel connected to the Walmart story. Meeting spaces are built for everything from five-minute conversations to full sprint sessions, and every floor has a wellness room, a mother’s room, and a doctor’s room. Sam Walton’s legacy is woven into the office to help employees understand why decisions are made the way they are.

South Carolina-headquartered Sonoco, a 125-year-old packaging firm, set up its GCC in Hyderabad last year. It shortlisted India among seven other countries due to talent availability and supportive policies. As a legacy manufacturing company, it wanted the office to reflect its DNA, featuring a "Sonoco history wall".

The wow factor

With the shift from India as an offshoring base to an AI-powered strategic hub, GCCs have moved up the real estate value chain. They are taking up larger spaces, with the average space per employee rising to 125–130 sq. ft, compared to 80–100 sq. ft in traditional offices. Specialized sectors like semiconductors require even more space for labs and collaborative areas.

Developers are rushing to adapt. In its new Lakeshore Drive business park, Bengaluru’s Prestige Group has leased out 2.6 million sq. ft to tech and capability centres of Uber, Blackstone and DXC Technology. Prestige has even worked on mobility by widening roads, building a flyover, and adopting the new Bellandur metro station for integrated access.

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India’s GCC Landscape: Key Numbers

• Estimated Revenue: $98.4 billion
• Total Talent Pool: 2.36 million employees
• Number of GCCs: 2,117
• Jan-Mar 2026 Leasing: 9.1 million sq. ft (44% of total market)

Pecking Order: City-wise share in GCC leasing (2025)

• Bengaluru: 37%
• Hyderabad: 17%
• Delhi-NCR: 13%
• Pune: 12%
• Chennai: 4%
• Mumbai: 1%

Top Recent GCC Leasing Deals

• HSBC (Bengaluru): 1,200,000 sq. ft
• British Petroleum (Pune): 1,008,726 sq. ft
• Airbus (Bengaluru): 881,000 sq. ft
• Target Corp India (Bengaluru): 831,000 sq. ft
• Standard Chartered (Chennai): 777,331 sq. ft
• Citi Bank (Pune): 771,180 sq. ft

The article titled “A new reel deal: What India-UK trade pact means for film and OTT” is written by Lata Jha and found on Page 6 of the source. The full text is reproduced below:

A new reel deal: What India-UK trade pact means for film and OTT

The India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (Ceta), which comes into force later this month, could make it easier for film studios, streaming platforms and production houses of the two countries to collaborate seamlessly.

While the India–UK Film Co-Production Agreement recognizes qualifying projects as both British and Indian productions for incentives, industry experts say it will also bring certainty regarding intellectual property, easier movement of talent, and improved access to services. These changes are expected to make it simpler and more cost-effective for producers while reducing practical hurdles for projects. The deal aims to improve investor confidence, encourage cross-border collaborations, and make India a more attractive partner for international studios and streaming platforms.

The opportunity arises as the media and entertainment industry increasingly relies on licensing content across markets. According to Rohit Dalmia, chairman and managing director of CineNow, "Production incentives and rebates available in markets such as the UK can significantly improve project economics by lowering net production costs and enhancing capital efficiency".

Beyond filmmaking, the UK brings strengths in AI research, creative technology and production infrastructure, while India offers creative talent, engineering capability and cost-efficient production at scale, according to Ridhima Lulla. A high-profile example of this partnership was the announcement by former UK PM Keir Starmer and Yash Raj Films regarding YRF returning to shoot three Bollywood films in the UK, a move expected to create over 3,000 jobs.

For productions from countries with co-production treaties with India, such as the UK, the minimum spend threshold of ₹3 crore is waived entirely, making a production eligible for the rebate regardless of its budget. Ishan Johri, partner at Khaitan & Co, noted that the Ceta complements cultural agreements between the British Film Institute and the National Film Development Corporation, as well as between the UK producers' body Pact and the Producers Guild of India.

Prachi Shrivastava, founding advisor at Lawfinity Solutions, emphasized the enabling nature of the agreement. “A trade agreement doesn't, by itself, bring film shoots to a country,” she said. “What the FTA adds is mostly enabling: easier movement of crew and creative professionals, more certainty around intellectual property and its enforcement, and more confidence for UK studios and streamers investing in Indian production”.

This deal comes as the Indian media and entertainment sector is projected to grow to ₹2.86 trillion in 2026 before reaching ₹3.3 trillion by 2028.

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Pact Play

• Greater Certainty: The pact provides more stability regarding intellectual property, movement of talent, and service access.
• Attractiveness: The deal is expected to improve investor confidence, push cross-border collaborations, and make India a more attractive partner.

The article titled “Tata Steel backs India growth with ₹20,000 cr capex” is found on Page 7 of the source. The full text is reproduced below:

Tata Steel backs India growth with ₹20,000 cr capex

The firm aims to increase global steelmaking capacity to over 50 MTPA, with India driving most of the growth

Tata Steel is looking to spend around ₹20,000 crore as capex in the current financial year, with a major share allocated to support its India business. This planned expenditure for FY27 is 38% higher than the ₹14,559 crore spent by the company a year ago.

“In FY26, we spent ₹14,559 crore on capital expenditure, and we plan to increase this to approximately ₹20,000 crore in FY 2026-27, with 60% allocated to India,” stated T. V. Narendran, CEO and MD, and Koushik Chatterjee, ED and CFO. The management explained that the capital allocation strategy for FY27 focuses on a balanced mix of sustenance projects, ongoing investments in value-added downstream and infrastructure projects, new technologies, and long-term growth projects, with a clear emphasis on India.

Key Projects and Expansions

Specific projects identified for this investment include:

• Expansions in tinplate and wires.
• The HRPGL (Hot Rolled Pickling & Galvanising Line) facility at Tarapur.
• The Coke Ovens project at Jamshedpur.
• Continued investments in mining, a stronger supply chain, and operational sustainability.

Capacity Goals

Tata Steel currently has a consolidated steelmaking capacity of over 36 million tonnes per annum (MTPA), excluding 3.2 MT in the UK currently under transition. Its existing capacity is distributed as follows:

• India: 27.35 MT
• Netherlands: 7 MT
• Thailand: 1.7 MT

In the long term, the company aims to increase its global capacity to over 50 MTPA, with the growth primarily driven by India, where it plans to add over 12 MT. The goal is to reach 40 MTPA capacity within India.

Indian Operations Overview

• Jamshedpur: 11 MTPA.
• Gamharia (Jharkhand): 1 MTPA.
• Kalinganagar (Odisha): 9 MTPA, including Neelachal Ispat Nigam Ltd (NINL), which was acquired through insolvency. The company is currently pursuing a 4.8 MTPA Phase-I expansion at NINL.
• Meramandali (Odisha): 5.6 MTPA.
• Punjab: Recently commissioned a 0.75 MT electric arc furnace.

Additionally, Tata Steel has formed a strategic partnership with Lloyds Metals and Energy Ltd to develop the emerging Gadchiroli iron ore hub and is evaluating a phased greenfield steel capacity of 6 MTPA.

The article titled “Calls for revenge as top officials appear at Khamenei’s funeral” is an AP report from Tehran, found on Page 8 of the sources. The full text is reproduced below:

Calls for revenge as top officials appear at Khamenei’s funeral

Iran’s top officials and brothers of the new supreme leader emerged into public view Sunday to attend funeral prayers for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Their appearance signalled confidence in their safety as Iran pushes back on US demands in negotiations to permanently end the war.

Crowds of hundreds of thousands chanted “Death to America” and “Death to Israel”, as they called for revenge over the 28 February attack that killed the 86-year-old supreme leader and other top officials, triggering the war. Some hard-liners called for the assassination of US president Donald Trump.

Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, has yet to make an appearance in the funeral ceremonies, which are unfolding over several days. He is believed to be in hiding after reportedly being wounded in the airstrike that killed his father. At the height of the war, before an April ceasefire, Israel had targeted top leaders, in at least one case likely using their public appearance to fix their position. It has also threatened to kill the younger Khamenei.

The US is meanwhile pressing ahead with negotiations with Iran aimed at fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz and rolling back its disputed nuclear programme.

Ziba Naderi, a 42-year-old nurse attending the funeral Sunday, said Iran needed to heed Mojtaba Khamenei’s commands. “I heard the call for revenge, but our leader should say what we need to do,” she said. “And we must listen to him”.

Ayatollah Jafar Sobhani, a 97-year-old Shiite cleric, led the prayers at Tehran’s Grand Mosalla for the late Khamenei and his family members killed in the strike. On hand were Khamenei’s other sons, Masoud, Meysam, and Mostafa, who haven’t been seen since the war. Revolutionary Guard head General Ahmad Vahidi, who was photographed for the first time since the war on Thursday, could be seen in the crowd, flanked by plainclothes security forces and wearing a black baseball cap.

Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian, parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf—who has led the negotiations with the US—and Esmail Qaani, who leads the elite Quds Force of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, also attended.

The crowd had grown from the day before. Mourners dressed in black carried banners and flags honouring Khamenei. Posters and graffiti at the Grand Mosalla called for the killing of Trump and Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“Why is the biggest bastard in the world still alive?” Mohammad Rasouli, a poet who emceed the event before the prayers, said to the crowd over loudspeakers, referring to Trump. “The world is no longer a good place” for Trump, he added as the crowd cheered.

“I came here to shout and seek revenge,” said Gholamreza Sabooni, a 29-year-old man who works in a grocery. “They killed our imam, we should kill their leader, Trump”.

The US president was giving a speech at the same time across the world in Washington, D.C., for the 250th anniversary of America’s founding. “We’ve had tremendous success,” Trump said about the US military. “You look at Venezuela, you look at Iran. We wiped it out, wiped out their military”.

US federal authorities have been tracking Iranian threats against Trump and other administration officials for years. That stems from Trump ordering the 2020 killing of General Qassem Soleimani, who had led the Quds Force. Iran repeatedly has denied plotting to kill Trump, though hard-line propaganda footage long has suggested Trump was in Tehran’s crosshairs. Trump meanwhile promised to destroy Iran’s very civilization during the war, among other threats.

Khamenei’s body will be transported to cities in Iran and neighbouring Iraq, with authorities planning to drive his casket and others through the streets of Tehran on Monday. Authorities have shut down streets, airspace and daily life for the mourning, which will end Thursday as he is buried at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad, Khamenei’s place of birth.

Authorities offered no attendance count for the event Saturday and Sunday. Other cities across Iran also held mourning ceremonies.

Talks over reaching a permanent end to the war appear to be on hold until the end of the funeral. The funeral was in part a show of unity and defiance as Iran demands a measure of control over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global energy that it shut down during the war. The US has rejected those demands, and the sides are divided on other key issues, including the conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran’s nuclear programme.

The US assisted 70 transits of the Strait of Hormuz over the past 72 hours, including 18 on Saturday, a multinational maritime body overseen by the US Navy said Sunday. It called traffic steady along routes near Oman and Iran but still below prewar levels. The threat level remained “substantial” and mine clearance and surveying work continued.

“Our foreign policy should not be shaped in a way that allows our martyred leader’s blood to be dishonoured and other countries can afford to do such things, without any serious response from our government and diplomatic system,” mourner Mohammad Reza Sharifi said.

The article titled “The hidden costs of remote work for Gen Z” is written by Owen Tucker-Smith and found on Page 14 of the sources. The full text is reproduced below:

The hidden costs of remote work for Gen Z

Frustration among employers over the effects of working from home may be leading them to cut back on hiring young workers

After two years and 150 job applications, Kylie Klapp settled for something she hadn’t initially sought out: a company with no office. The 24-year-old’s colleagues are scattered across living rooms around the country, dealing in Slack messages and emails, but never chatting by the water cooler because, well, there isn’t one. She goes days without hearing a co-worker’s voice or seeing one’s face. When she does, the interaction is to-the-point: “You give me a task,” she says, “I give you an output”.

In the back of Klapp’s mind is the fear of getting left behind. “The job market is so bad right now,” she said. “I need to network”. And if that isn’t enough? Remote work “has ruined my social life,” she says.

Six years ago, the pandemic sent Klapp and her peers home from their high schools months before their graduations. Now, much of Gen Z remains alien to the American office. And while executives like Jamie Dimon and Andy Jassy have launched high-profile campaigns to get workers back to their desks, remote work remains a staple of the workplace, leaving plenty of recent grads Zooming into conference calls from their couches.

MENTORSHIP GAP

Those workers sometimes struggle to connect with mentors or shadow senior employees. Training junior workers remotely is “very expensive,” said startup founder Jason Crawford. “It becomes this silent tax on senior time”. Crawford’s top employees would be more productive at home, he said, but junior ones aren’t.

Recent grads are already fretting that artificial intelligence is shrinking the junior job market. Compounding those worries is fresh economic research arguing that frustration among employers like Crawford over how working-from-home policies have played out might have caused them to cut back on hiring young workers altogether.

A study last month from researchers at the London School of Economics noted that the amount of hiring devoted to entry-level roles across a handful of countries has fallen more than 14% since 2019. The study, based on more than 400 million online job postings, found that firms that stayed remote after the pandemic were more likely to cut back on junior hiring. Recruiting an entry-level worker, the researchers say, is a bet on the employee’s future skills. So a company’s return-on-investment hinges on the rate at which that young employee learns.

Since remote work slows that process, the researchers argue, companies see young talent as a less attractive value proposition, preferring to invest instead in older workers. As a result, remote work doesn’t just dampen young employees’ day-to-day experience. It also makes it harder for them to find a job in the future.

“The implication is stark,” the researchers wrote. “A persistent contraction of this kind hollows out the pipeline of future experienced workers, causing declines in aggregate productivity as well as imposing cohort-specific scarring”.

Less than a quarter of Gen Z wants a fully remote workplace, according to a Gallup poll last year, compared with more than a third of the older generations. Software developer Darby Vernon used to work at a company that allowed workers to stay home, and only a small cohort of young, mostly single workers would come into the office.

On the surface, Vernon said, remote work seemed attractive: “You can roll out of bed five minutes before your morning meeting”. But she started to miss socializing. An introvert, Vernon would realize she had gone a week without talking to anyone besides a waiter at a restaurant. She is now a month into an in-person role—and she feels sorry for young workers who are stuck at home.

“Sending someone a Slack message admitting ‘I don’t know what I’m doing’ is harder than leaning over at lunch,” she said.

Some also worry that remote work limits the development of the “soft skills” needed to succeed in workplace social situations. There is a whole cottage industry for it now: Amazon and Live Nation hired influencer Grace McCarrick to improve their workers’ social skills in the workplace.

McCarrick has recently started selling her services directly to workers, teaching them what to say when your boss’s boss approaches you at happy hour, for a few hundred dollars a month. She calls it “the Soft Skilled School” and said there is significant demand from young people. This month’s theme? Charisma.

Young workers can’t expect to flex these skills at home, she added. “You can have convenience when you’re 45”.

DIFFERENT PRIORITIES

Not everyone buys that. A camp of Gen Z has clung to the dream of work-life balance. Only 6% of Gen Z and Millennials say achieving a leadership position at their company is a primary career goal, according to a Deloitte survey last month. More than 40% said flexible work arrangements would be a top factor influencing their decision to take on a leadership role.

That spirit has led an army of young people to push back against the back-to-work crusade. Part of the problem, Klapp said, is that the emerging factions of Gen Z are now leading completely different lives: “I have a really hard time relating to peers that don’t have the same experience as me,” she said.

A thousand miles away from Klapp in Canada, 24-year-old software developer Chris Stevers doesn’t mind coding from his family farm outside of Stratford, Ontario. Yes, it was awkward when a cow interrupted one of his Zooms, and he realizes he could be missing out on networking by surrounding himself mostly with farmers. But Stevers likes that he is able to get his tasks done while tending to his herd of cattle and being near family.

Economists say the remote-work theory of entry-level hiring might be good news, especially if it means the effects of AI aren’t to blame for the hiring slowdown. The inconveniences of Slack and Zoom are fixable problems, the LSE researchers argue, which corporate America could work to address. On the other hand, if the slowdown is AI’s fault, they say, then there isn’t much that can be done easily, given the technology’s unstoppable force.

And yet the workforce doesn’t seem to have reached that point yet. Matthew Manning, already on his third remote job in three years after graduating in 2023, has never shadowed another employee. Manning, like others, enjoys the flexibility of remote work. But he also realizes he hasn’t been in a job long enough to go through a promotion cycle. He was laid off of both of his previous roles.

“I’ve never really gotten to know my co-workers,” he said. “And I think it’s easier to let someone go if you don’t have a physical relationship with them”.

© 2026 DOW JONES & CO. INC.

The article titled “Israel army chief vows decisive action on Hezbollah in Lebanon” is an AFP report from Jerusalem, found on Page 8 of the source. The full text is reproduced below:

Israel army chief vows decisive action on Hezbollah in Lebanon

Israel’s military chief visited forces deployed around Beaufort castle in southern Lebanon on Sunday, vowing to push ahead with the campaign against Hezbollah.

“The IDF will continue to operate decisively to remove threats from Lebanese territory and is prepared to transition rapidly to offensive operations should the ceasefire be violated,” Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir told soldiers during the visit, according to a statement issued by the military.

Israeli forces seized the crusader-era castle and the area around it recently, giving the military a strategic toehold it previously occupied for nearly two decades.

Israel says it uncovered a tunnel network beneath the castle, saying it was built to give fighters of Lebanese militant group Hezbollah a fortified strike hub just kilometres from Israeli territory.

Israel previously overran the fortress during its 1982 invasion of Lebanon, after a prolonged battle with the Palestinian fighters hidden in the castle’s maze of historic underground tunnels. The castle was damaged by violent bombardment in the process. Israel then used it as one of its main observation posts until its troops withdrew from the country in 2000.

“Our troops’ activities at the Beaufort Ridge and throughout southern Lebanon are being carried out in accordance with the framework of the agreement and the mechanisms established under it,” Zamir said on Sunday, referring to the recent US-brokered agreement between Israel and Lebanon intended to permanently halt hostilities.

But Zamir said that “any threat directed at our troops or the Israeli civilians will be struck immediately and eliminated”.

“The Lebanese Armed Forces are required to fulfil their commitments under the historic agreement that was signed and act to clear the area of Hezbollah terrorists and terrorist infrastructure,” he added.

Hezbollah drew Lebanon into the war in West Asia on 2 March with rocket fire at Israel to avenge the killing of Iran’s supreme leader in US-Israeli strikes days earlier. Israel responded with massive airstrikes and a ground invasion of southern Lebanon, where its troops now occupy swathes of territory near the border.

Talent Abroad: A Review of Greek Emigrants

 The sources provide a comprehensive overview of the scale and concentration of the Greek-born population residing abroad, particularly within OECD countries. This data is central to understanding the evolution of the Greek diaspora from historical migration waves to the more recent "brain drain" triggered by the sovereign debt crisis.

The Scale of Greek Emigration

The overall scale of Greek emigration is significant, both in absolute numbers and as a proportion of the national population.

• Total Population Abroad: In 2020/21, more than 800,000 Greek-born individuals resided in OECD countries. Including children under 15, the total reached approximately 811,000.
• Historical Growth: After a modest decline between 2000 and 2005, the stock of Greek emigrants grew steadily, with the most pronounced surge occurring during and after the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Between 2010/11 and 2020/21 alone, the population grew by 15%.
• High Emigration Rate: Greece’s emigration rate—the share of persons born in the country who reside abroad—stood at 7.2% in 2020/21. This is high compared to larger European economies like Germany (4.9%), Italy (4.4%), and France (3.0%), and is comparable to rates in Switzerland and the United Kingdom.
• Recent Rebalancing: While annual outflows peaked in 2012 at over 65,000, they have since declined to roughly 32,000 by 2021. Notably, 2023 marked a turning point where estimated inflows of returning Greek citizens (46,000) exceeded outflows (37,000) for the first time since the crisis.

Geographic and Regional Concentration

Greek emigrants are not evenly dispersed; they exhibit high levels of concentration at national, regional, and subnational levels.

• Primary Destination Countries: The diaspora is highly concentrated in a few nations, with 12 countries hosting 93% of all Greek emigrants in the OECD. Three-quarters are concentrated in just five countries: Germany, the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom, and Canada.
• Intra-European Shift: While traditional hubs like the U.S. and Australia remain sizeable, their Greek-born populations have consistently declined since 2000 due to the ageing of older cohorts and limited new arrivals. Conversely, mobility has reoriented toward Northern and Western Europe, with significant growth in the Netherlands, Norway, Ireland, and Switzerland.
• Urban Clustering: Within host countries, Greek communities are heavily concentrated in major metropolitan areas. For example:
  • Sweden: Half of all Greek-born residents live in the Stockholm region.
  • Canada: 87% are settled in Ontario and Quebec, the provinces containing Canada's largest cities.
  • Australia: Nearly 80% reside in Victoria (Melbourne) and New South Wales (Sydney).
  • United States: Large populations cluster in coastal, urbanised states like New York, Illinois (Chicago), and California.

Concentration of Talent and Professional Skills

The sources emphasize that recent Greek emigration is characterized by strong educational selectivity, leading to a concentration of talent abroad.

• Educational Attainment: More than two-thirds of Greek-born emigrants hold medium or high levels of education. Recent cohorts are even more qualified; nearly half (49%) of those who moved within the last five years hold high educational attainment.
• The Scientific Diaspora: There is a substantial and high-performing Greek-origin scientific diaspora. Of approximately 64,000 Greek-origin scientists mapped in 2021, 44% are affiliated with institutions abroad. This concentration is even starker among top-impact researchers: 80% of the global top 1% and 86% of the top 0.1% of highly cited Greek-origin scientists work outside of Greece.
• Medical Professionals: A notable professional concentration exists among health-care workers. The number of Greek-born doctors practicing in other OECD countries has tripled since 2000/01, making Greece a major net sender of medical talent to the EU, UK, and USA.

This high concentration of skilled talent abroad represents a "brain drain" that the Greek government is now attempting to address through policies aimed at "brain regain," such as the ReBrain Greece digital platform and targeted tax incentives.

The sources reveal that Greek emigration patterns are characterized by a high geographic concentration, which is currently undergoing a structural reorientation from traditional long-distance settlement countries toward Northern and Western Europe.

Concentration in Major Destination Hubs

Greek emigrants are highly concentrated in a small number of nations. In 2020/21, 93% of all Greek-born individuals in the OECD resided in just 12 countries. Three-quarters of the diaspora is located in only five countries: Germany, the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom, and Canada.

• Germany remains the dominant hub, hosting approximately 237,000 Greek emigrants. Although its dominance has slightly weakened as inflows moderated post-crisis, it continues to be the primary destination within the EU.
• The United States (139,000) and Australia (92,000) follow as the largest non-European destinations.

Shift Toward Intra-European Mobility

A major finding in the sources is the shift in Greek mobility toward Northern and Western European labor markets.

• Declining Traditional Hubs: Populations in the United States, Australia, and Canada have consistently declined since 2000/01. This is due to the aging of older migrant cohorts and limited new arrivals.
• Emerging Growth Corridors: Between 2010/11 and 2020/21, the Greek-born population tripled in countries like the Netherlands, Norway, and Ireland. Significant surges were also noted in Bulgaria (+1,948%), Luxembourg, and Switzerland.
• The United Kingdom: This destination stands out for strong growth, with its Greek-born population more than doubling over a decade (rising from 37,000 to nearly 87,000).

Demographic and Specialized Patterns

Destination patterns are closely linked to the age and professional profile of the emigrants:

• Age Divergence: Traditional long-distance destinations (Australia, Canada) are characterized by older populations, with 68–76% of Greek-born residents aged 65 and over. Conversely, European destinations like the Netherlands and the UK host younger, working-age cohorts and students.
• Educational and Scientific Hubs: The United Kingdom is the top destination for Greeks pursuing Bachelor’s and PhD degrees. For high-impact researchers and scientists, the United States remains the primary country of affiliation, hosting 33% of the Greek-origin scientific diaspora.
• Student Mobility: While the UK has traditionally led, Bulgaria and the Netherlands have emerged as major destinations for Master’s students.

Subnational and Urban Clustering

Within host countries, Greek emigrants exhibit a strong preference for major metropolitan areas.

• Sweden: Roughly half of all Greek-born residents live in the Stockholm region.
• Canada: 87% are settled in Ontario and Quebec, primarily in urban centers.
• Australia: Nearly 80% reside in Victoria (Melbourne) and New South Wales (Sydney).
• United States: Concentration is highest in states with large cities, such as New York, Illinois (Chicago), and California.

This geographic concentration is mirrored in return migration, as 60% of those returning to Greece settle in the metropolitan regions of Attica (Athens) or Central Macedonia (Thessaloniki).

The sources provide a detailed demographic profile of Greek emigrants, illustrating a diaspora that is ageing yet evolving, highly educated, and increasingly multigenerational. This profile is shaped by the interplay between historical migration waves and more recent mobility triggered by economic crises.

Gender Distribution

The Greek emigrant population in the OECD is slightly male-dominated.

• Gender Split: In 2020/21, men accounted for 52% (approximately 419,000) and women for 48% (approximately 392,000).
• Historical Stability: This gender gap has remained remarkably stable over two decades, with the female share staying at 48% since 2000/01.
• Comparison to Home: Interestingly, this pattern mirrors the United Kingdom's diaspora but contrasts with the population in Greece itself, which is slightly majority female (51%).

Age Structure and the "Ageing Diaspora"

The age profile reveals an ageing population, though recent trends suggest a modest uptick in youth mobility.

• General Breakdown: As of 2020/21, 34% of Greek-born emigrants were aged 65 and over, while 51% were between 25 and 64. Children (0–14) and young adults (15–24) each represented 8% of the stock.
• The Ageing Trend: The share of prime working-age emigrants (25–64) has declined from 70% in 2000/01 to 55% in 2020/21. Conversely, the 65+ cohort grew from 25% to 37% over the same period.
• Geographic Divergence: Age profiles vary sharply by destination. Traditional long-distance hubs like Australia and Canada are overwhelmingly older, with 68–76% of residents aged 65+. In contrast, European destinations like the Netherlands and the UK host much younger populations, where the 25–64 age group makes up 67–75% of the total.

Educational Selectivity and "Brain Drain"

A "defining feature" of modern Greek emigration is its strong educational selectivity.

• High Attainment: More than two-thirds of Greek-born emigrants hold medium or high levels of education.
• Cohort Shifts: Recent arrivals are significantly more qualified than earlier ones. Nearly half (49%) of those who moved within the last five years have high educational attainment, compared to only 25% of those who have lived abroad for more than a decade.
• Comparison to Natives: In most host countries, Greek emigrants are more likely to hold tertiary degrees than the native-born population.

Marital Status and Household Profile

The diaspora is predominantly a partnered population.

• Marriage Rates: Married individuals represent the largest share of both men (61%) and women (53%).
• Gendered Differences: Male emigrants are more likely to be single (26% vs. 18% for women), while women are far more likely to be widowed, divorced, or separated (28% vs. 13% for men), reflecting their older average age structure.

The Multi-Generational Dimension

The demographic footprint of "Greeks abroad" extends far beyond those born in Greece.

• Second Generation: In Canada, the second generation (individuals born there with at least one Greek-born parent) now exceeds the first generation (100,000 vs. 73,500).
• Ancestry-Based Diaspora: In the United States, while fewer than 120,000 residents are Greek-born, over 1.2 million individuals report Greek ancestry. Similarly, Australia hosts approximately 425,000 people of Greek descent compared to roughly 92,000 Greek-born residents.

This demographic maturity indicates that while the first generation is ageing in place in traditional hubs, newer, highly skilled cohorts are continuing to replenish the diaspora in Europe.

The sources highlight that a high level of educational attainment and strong labor market integration are the defining characteristics of the modern Greek diaspora. This profile is driven by a combination of domestic "push" factors, such as high graduate unemployment in Greece, and the strategic pursuit of better professional opportunities in international research and labor hubs.

Educational Profile and Selectivity

Greek emigration is characterized by strong educational selectivity, particularly among those who moved during and after the sovereign debt crisis.

• High Attainment: More than two-thirds of Greek-born emigrants hold medium or high levels of education. In countries like France and the United Kingdom, over 70% of Greek emigrants hold tertiary degrees.
• Recent Cohort Trends: Newer arrivals are significantly more qualified than earlier waves. Nearly half (49%) of those residing abroad for fewer than five years hold high educational attainment, compared to only 25% of those who have been abroad for more than a decade.
• The Scientific Diaspora: There is a vast pool of academic talent abroad, including more than 17,000 Greek PhD holders residing in OECD countries. Furthermore, 44% of Greek-origin scientists are affiliated with institutions abroad, including the vast majority of the community's top-performing researchers.

Student Mobility Patterns

International mobility is a structural feature of Greece’s higher education system, with outbound mobility rates consistently exceeding OECD averages.

• Domestic Drivers: While Greece has one of the highest tertiary enrollment rates in the OECD (51% of 20-24 year-olds), it also faces the highest graduate unemployment rate in the OECD (13%) and a high overqualification rate (37%) for those who remain.
• Shifting Destinations: The United Kingdom remains a top destination, especially for Bachelor’s and PhD students, though enrollment has declined post-Brexit. Conversely, Bulgaria and the Netherlands have emerged as major hubs, with the Netherlands' enrollment tripling since 2014, largely due to its expansion of English-taught programs.

Labor Market Outcomes Abroad

Greek emigrants generally achieve strong integration in foreign labor markets, often outperforming or mirroring native-born populations.

• Participation and Employment: Approximately 75% of Greek-born individuals in OECD countries participate in the labor market, compared to 72% of the native-born population in those same countries. Employment rates are highest for Greeks in the United Kingdom and Switzerland.
• Occupational Footprint: Greek workers are predominantly employed in medium and high-skilled occupations. One-quarter of Greek-born women abroad work as professionals (e.g., in health or education), while men are more concentrated in manual, technical, and managerial roles.
• The Medical Sector: A notable trend is the "tripling" of Greek-born doctors practicing in other OECD countries since 2000/01, making Greece a major net sender of medical talent.
• Overqualification: While overqualification is a risk for any migrant, Greek-born workers in Switzerland and France are actually less likely to be overqualified than the native-born population.

Education as a Factor in Return Migration

The sources indicate that education is the most critical determinant of success for those returning to Greece.

• Positively Selected Returnees: Recent returnees are disproportionately young and highly educated; 60% of those who returned between 2016 and 2021 held a tertiary degree, compared to just 23% of the non-migrant population.
• Faster Reintegration: Highly educated returnees, especially those with master’s or doctoral degrees, reintegrate into the Greek labor market more quickly and face lower unemployment risks than returnees with lower qualifications.
• Brain Circulation: Rather than a simple "loss," these patterns suggest a complex cycle of talent circulation. Return migrants are heavily concentrated in high-skill sectors like ICT, engineering, and health, bringing back valuable international networks and practices.

Return migration has recently re-emerged as a significant component of Greece's mobility cycle, shifting from a period of prolonged net outflows to a potential turning point for the country's human capital.

The Scale and Turning Point of Return

For much of the decade following the 2009 economic crisis, outflows of Greek citizens consistently exceeded inflows. However, estimated annual inflows of returning Greek citizens have risen steadily since 2021. The year 2023 marked a decisive shift, as estimated inflows (46,000) exceeded outflows (37,000) for the first time since the crisis began. This trend continued into 2024, with inflows reaching nearly 52,000.

Demographic and Educational Profile

Returnees are generally characterized by "positive selection," meaning they are more qualified and younger than the general population.

• Age: Return migration is concentrated among younger adults; 54% of those returning between 2016 and 2021 were aged 20–39.
• Education: Returnees are highly qualified, with 60% holding tertiary degrees, compared to only 23% of the non-migrant population in Greece. Recent return cohorts show an even higher concentration of master’s and doctoral degree holders.
• Gender: Men account for a slight majority of returnees (54%), which is consistent with the overall Greek emigrant profile.

Geographic Patterns of Return

The geography of return migration is defined by strong ties to Europe and a concentration in Greece’s urban centers.

• Origins Abroad: 83% of recent returnees previously resided in other European countries. Germany (22%) and the United Kingdom (20%) are the primary source countries, reflecting strong circular mobility within the EU.
• Settlement in Greece: Returnees overwhelmingly settle in major metropolitan areas: 42% in Attica (Athens) and 18% in Central Macedonia (Thessaloniki).
• Regional Ties: Roughly four in five returnees choose to resettle in their region of birth, particularly in Northern and Central Greece, leveraging existing family and social networks.

Labour Market Integration

While returnees bring back valuable international skills and networks, their reintegration into the Greek labour market is often a gradual process.

• Employment Rates: Reintegration takes time; the employment rate for those who just returned is 46%, but this rises to 72% for those who have been back for five years.
• Professional Concentration: Return migrants are heavily concentrated in high-skill roles. Nearly half (47%) work as professionals—specifically in health, science, engineering, and ICT—compared to just 18% of non-migrants.
• Entrepreneurship: Self-employment is actually less common among returnees (19%) than among those who never left (25%).

Motivations and Barriers

Decisions to return are driven by a mix of personal attachment and professional considerations, though significant structural barriers remain.

• Drivers: Repatriation is the dominant reason cited for return (over 50%), followed by employment-related motives (18–22%) and family reunification.
• Barriers: Survey data indicate that many Greeks abroad remain hesitant to return due to limited trust in Greek institutions, concerns about career advancement, and a perceived lack of meritocracy in the domestic labour market.
• Policy Incentives: The Greek government has introduced measures to facilitate return, such as the ReBrain Greece digital platform and a 50% income tax exemption for seven years for those who transfer their tax residence to Greece. Targeted reforms have also simplified the automatic recognition of medical qualifications for doctors trained in countries like the USA, UK, and Australia to address domestic health-care shortages.

In the context of the Review of Greek Emigrants, the sources identify international mobility as a structural feature of Greece's higher education and research systems. This mobility is driven by a paradox: Greece has one of the highest tertiary enrollment rates in the OECD (over 50% of 20-24 year-olds), yet it also faces the highest graduate unemployment rate in the OECD at 13%, and a significant overqualification rate of 37%.

International Student Mobility and Shifting Destinations

Greek student mobility remains consistently above EU and OECD averages. While the United Kingdom has historically been the primary destination, its dominance is weakening due to Brexit, which led to a sharp 57% decline in new EU enrollments following the loss of home-fee status.

• Degree Patterns: The United Kingdom remains the top choice for Bachelor’s and PhD candidates. However, Bulgaria and the Netherlands have emerged as major hubs for Master’s students, with the Netherlands’ enrollment tripling since 2014 due to its expansion of English-taught programs.
• Fields of Study: Many Greek students pursue medical and health sciences in countries like Bulgaria, where they represent 21% of all international students.

The Doctoral and Scientific Diaspora

The sources highlight a massive pool of Greek academic talent residing outside the country, often described as a "scientific diaspora".

• PhD Holders Abroad: More than 17,000 Greek-born doctorate holders reside in OECD countries, primarily in the United States, Germany, and the UK. Among new PhD holders graduating in Greece, about 1 in 7 intend to settle abroad immediately, with the highest intentions found in the natural sciences.
• Concentration of Top Talent: A mapping of 64,000 Greek-origin scientists found that 44% are affiliated with institutions abroad. This concentration is even more dramatic among elite researchers: 80% of the global top 1% and 86% of the top 0.1% of highly cited Greek-origin scientists work outside of Greece.
• Biomedical Dominance: Roughly one in three Greek-origin scientists abroad works in biomedical research, though fields like mathematics and economics are also strongly represented.

Barriers to Return and "Brain Circulation"

While a significant number of Greek academics abroad (59%) express interest in returning to Greece, they are deterred by several structural barriers:

• Financial Constraints: Concerns about low salaries relative to the international cost of living and limited research funding are the primary deterrents.
• Institutional Quality: Perceptions of weak meritocracy, bureaucracy, and poor governance in Greek universities discourage highly qualified researchers from returning.
• Geographic Divergence: Realized return for PhD holders is concentrated from Europe (84%), while those in North America are significantly less likely to return, suggesting more permanent settlement patterns in the U.S. and Canada.

Policy Initiatives for Engagement

The Greek government and various institutions have launched initiatives to transition from talent loss to "brain circulation":

• ReBrain Greece: A digital platform designed to match diaspora talent with high-skill job opportunities in the Greek private sector.
• Academic Support: The Hellenic Foundation for Research and Innovation (ELIDEK) and the Knowledge Bridges initiative provide grants and networking tools to support the reintegration of researchers.
• Structural Reforms: Recent legislation now allows for the operation of non-profit branches of foreign universities in Greece to internationalize the domestic system and attract diaspora academics back to teach.

This evidence suggests that while Greece continues to lose top-tier research talent, there is an emerging shift toward viewing the diaspora as a global knowledge network that can be engaged through circular mobility and strategic return incentives.

Greece’s policy framework for emigrants has undergone a strategic transformation, evolving from a traditional focus on cultural preservation and consular services to a more comprehensive approach aimed at mobilising diaspora talent and facilitating return migration. This shift recognizes the diaspora as a vital reservoir of human capital that can support national development through skills transfer, innovation, and investment.

Institutional Landscape and Governance

The institutional architecture is multi-layered, involving both state and non-state actors:

• Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA): Through the General Secretariat for Greeks Abroad (GGAE), the MFA is the primary body responsible for diaspora relations, overseeing cultural outreach and consular services.
• Inter-institutional Cooperation: Greece increasingly relies on Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) to coordinate across agencies, such as a 2024 agreement between the MFA and the Public Employment Service (DYPA) to inform Greeks abroad about domestic job opportunities.
• Civic Participation: A major milestone was the 2019 legislation allowing Greeks abroad to vote from their country of residence, which was recently expanded to include postal voting for national elections.

The Strategic Plan for the Greek Diaspora (2024–2027)

A central pillar of the current framework is the MFA’s Strategic Plan for the Greek Diaspora, which provides an overarching roadmap for engagement. The plan focuses on six core objectives, including the digitisation of consular services, the creation of professional networks for academics and entrepreneurs, and strengthening ties with the younger generation through digital learning platforms and hosting programmes. While the strategy provides a directional framework, it currently lacks a detailed operational action plan with specific annual funding and monitoring mechanisms.

Key Policy Domains and Recent Initiatives

The framework includes several targeted instruments designed to encourage "brain circulation" and return:

• ReBrain Greece: This digital platform acts as a matching mechanism, connecting highly skilled diaspora professionals with specialized private-sector job vacancies in Greece.
• Tax Incentives: Law 4758/2020 offers a 50% income tax exemption for seven years to individuals who transfer their tax residence to Greece, provided they commit to staying for at least two years.
• Medical Professional Support: New legislation has introduced the automatic recognition of medical qualifications for Greek doctors trained in countries like the USA, UK, and Australia to ease their return to the domestic health-care system.
• Academic and Research Mobility: The framework supports circular mobility through the Visiting Professors Programme and funding from the Hellenic Foundation for Research and Innovation (ELIDEK), which has awarded grants specifically to help postdoctoral researchers reintegrate into Greek institutions.
• Educational Internationalisation: Recent reforms, such as Law 5094/2024, allow for the operation of non-profit branches of foreign universities, aiming to internationalise the higher education system and attract diaspora academics back to teach.

Challenges and Recommended Enhancements

Despite these advances, the sources identify several areas for strengthening the framework:

• Coordination: There is no permanent, standing inter-ministerial mechanism to align diaspora, labour market, and research policies.
• Service Integration: While digital platforms like diaspora.mfa.gr are being developed, there is a need for a unified digital entry point that consolidates administrative, employment, and family-related services for returnees.
• Evidence-Based Learning: The sources suggest establishing a central knowledge hub to consolidate research and conduct outcome-focused evaluations to assess the real-world impact of these policies on employment and innovation.

Empowering India: The Mutual Fund Voluntary Retirement Account

 The sources describe Demographic Urgency as the critical need for India to expand its pension systems immediately while its population is still relatively young, before a rapid transition into an aging society makes retirement security a national crisis. This urgency is framed within the context of India's goal to become a developed nation (Viksit Bharat) by 2047, which requires a foundation of financially prepared citizens.

Key factors contributing to this demographic urgency include:

1. Rapidly Aging Population

• Projections for 2050: While only 11% of India's population was above age 60 in 2023, this share is expected to nearly double to 21% by 2050.
• Absolute Numbers: By 2050, the number of Indians aged 60+ will reach 346 million, a figure higher than the entire current elderly population of Europe.
• Speed of Growth: The growth rate of the senior citizen population in India is projected to be significantly higher than the global average.

2. Failure of Traditional Support Systems

• Evolving Family Structures: Traditionally, Indian retirement was supported by the "fifth pillar" of family and informal networks (Pillar IV).
• Nuclearization: Increasing urbanization and the shrinking of average family sizes (from 4.5 in 2011 to 4.1 in 2024) mean this informal support is failing, making individual financial independence essential.

3. Regional Variations and Internal Urgency

The urgency is even more acute in specific regions. Some states are aging nearly 20 years ahead of the national average.

• Early Agers: Kerala already had an elderly population of 16.5% in 2021 (expected to top 20.9% by 2031), followed by Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh.
• Younger States: In contrast, states like Bihar (7.7% elderly in 2021) still have a much younger demographic, though they too will eventually face this transition.

4. Limited Coverage and "The Opportunity Window"

• Low Current Coverage: Only 27.2% of the population aged 15-64 is covered by mandatory pension schemes, compared to the OECD average of 75.8%.
• Conducive Demography: The sources argue that India must expand its pension system now because the current demography—with 669 million people aged 25-59—is conducive for long-term pension planning and wealth creation through equities.

The Role of Mutual Funds

The sources propose that the mutual fund industry is best positioned to address this urgency by introducing a Mutual Fund - Voluntary Retirement Account (MF-VRA). This system would:

• Channel Savings: Move household savings into productive, long-term capital.
• Diversify Portfolios: Encourage higher allocation to equities (currently only 17% in Indian pension assets) to ensure the corpus can sustain decades of life after work.
• Leverage Reach: Build upon the industry's existing geographic penetration into underpenetrated states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand.

The World Bank’s five-pillar framework serves as a fundamental benchmark for comparing and developing the pension industry in India. While India has transitioned from a three-pillar system to this more refined model, the sources indicate that the current system still lacks depth and coverage when compared to global standards.

The Five Pillars in the Indian Context

The framework is designed to address the needs of diverse populations and manage the financial requirements of old age through these specific levels:

• Pillar Zero (Non-contributory): This is a social safety net financed by the government to provide basic protection for those with low lifetime incomes. In India, this is represented by the National Social Assistance Program (NSAP), including schemes like the Indira Gandhi National Old Age Pension Scheme (IGNOAPS).
• Pillar I (Mandatory – Pay-as-you-go): A defined benefit framework funded by taxes or expenses to replace a portion of pre-retirement income. While this is subject to sustainability risks due to an aging population, India has moved toward a hybrid model with the introduction of the Unified Pension Scheme (UPS) in 2025 for central government employees.
• Pillar II (Mandatory – Organised Section): A mandatory defined contribution (DC) system typically targeting the organized sector. In India, this includes the Employee Provident Fund (EPF) and the Employees’ Pension Fund (EPS), but it currently lacks depth due to the relatively small share of the organized sector in the economy.
• Pillar III (Voluntary): This consists of voluntary savings such as the National Pension System (NPS), Public Provident Fund (PPF), and mutual fund retirement plans. This pillar is where the sources propose the most significant growth through mutual funds.
• Pillar IV (Non-financial/Informal): Traditionally the strongest pillar in India, this consists of family support. However, this pillar is failing as urbanization and the nuclearization of families increase; the average family size in India dropped from 4.5 in 2011 to 4.1 in 2024.

Limitations of the Current Indian System

The sources highlight that the lack of a robust system across these five pillars has negatively impacted major indicators:

• Low Coverage: Only 27.2% of India's population aged 15-64 is covered under mandatory pension schemes, compared to the OECD average of 75.8%.
• Asset Inadequacy: India’s pension assets are just 11% of GDP, whereas developed markets like the US and Australia range between 130-150%.
• Low Replacement Rates: India has one of the lowest gross pension replacement rates at 38.9%, significantly lower than Brazil (88%) or China (68%).
• Conservative Allocation: Only 17% of Indian pension assets are in equities, which limits wealth creation for a population that has 669 million people in the 25-59 age bracket.

The Role of Mutual Funds in Strengthening the Framework

To address these gaps, the sources advocate for a Mutual Fund - Voluntary Retirement Account (MF-VRA) to bolster Pillar III. Drawing inspiration from the US 401(k) model, this would be a voluntary, employer-linked product managed by mutual funds.

Why Mutual Funds are uniquely positioned:

• Professional Management: They can offer "Retirement Lifecycle Funds" that automatically adjust asset allocation (glide paths) from aggressive to conservative as an investor ages.
• Geographic Reach: The industry is rapidly expanding into B-30 (Beyond-30) cities, which saw a 22.69% CAGR in assets between 2019 and 2025.
• Infrastructure: The industry already possesses evolved governance, high technology adoption (with nearly 90% of transactions being digital), and a robust risk management framework defined by SEBI.

By integrating mutual funds more deeply into the voluntary pillar, India can channel household savings into productive long-term capital while providing citizens with the "Sahi choice" for a retirement of dignity and independence.

The sources identify four critical Current Pension Indicators where India significantly lags behind global benchmarks, creating a "lack of a robust pension system" that necessitates the involvement of mutual funds to secure the nation's retirement future.

1. Pension Coverage

This indicator measures how effectively a pension system is utilized by the pre-retirement population.

• India’s Standing: Only 27.2% of the population aged 15-64 and 54.9% of the active labour force are covered under mandatory pension schemes.
• Global Context: In contrast, the OECD countries average is 75.8% for the 15-64 age group and 95.1% for the active labour force.

2. Pension Assets (as a % of GDP)

This reflects the depth of retirement savings within the economy.

• India’s Standing: India’s pension assets were just 11% of GDP at the end of 2022.
• Global Context: The OECD average is 87%, while developed markets like the US and Canada see assets in the range of 130-150% of GDP. The sources note that these nations have a long history of mandatory or quasi-mandatory private pension systems and tax incentives that India currently lacks at scale.

3. Pension Replacement Rates

This calculates the efficacy of the pension system in replacing pre-retirement income to maintain a desired standard of living.

• India’s Standing: India has one of the lowest gross replacement rates at 38.9%.
• Global Context: This is significantly lower than the OECD average of over 50%, Brazil's 88%, and China’s 68%. The sources point out that the absence of a developed voluntary pension system in India fails to add to this replacement rate, whereas in the US, voluntary systems contribute an additional 34% to the overall replacement.

4. Asset Allocation

This indicator looks at where the pension corpus is invested, which is critical for generating long-term returns.

• India’s Standing: Only 17% of Indian pension assets are invested in equities, with the bulk in debt instruments.
• Global Context: Major OECD markets invest 30-45% in long-term assets like equities. Given India's demography—with 669 million people in the 25-59 age bracket—the sources argue there is a missed opportunity for wealth creation through greater equity allocation.

The Role of Mutual Funds

The sources propose the Mutual Fund - Voluntary Retirement Account (MF-VRA) as a solution to improve these indicators. This product would leverage the mutual fund industry's evolved governance and technology to:

• Increase Coverage: By offering a voluntary, portable, and flexible product accessible to freelancers and the gig economy, not just the organized sector.
• Enhance Asset Allocation: Through "Retirement Lifecycle Funds" that automatically rebalance between equities and debt based on the investor's age and risk tolerance.
• Boost National Savings: By channeling household savings into productive long-term capital, thereby increasing the size of pension assets relative to GDP.

The sources present the global pension landscape and the US 401(k) model as a successful blueprint for India to address its demographic challenges through the mutual fund industry. Developed nations increasingly rely on an additional layer of individual pension planning to supplement government social security and improve the sustainability of "pay-as-you-go" systems.

The Global Context and Multi-Pillar Systems

Globally, developed countries like Canada, Denmark, and the Netherlands have moved toward multi-pillar systems that combine mandatory government pensions with voluntary private savings. Key global trends noted in the sources include:

• Financial Incentives: Most OECD countries use the EET (Exempt-Exempt-Taxed) method, where contributions and investment returns are exempt from tax, while withdrawals are taxed.
• Asset Allocation: OECD pension markets typically invest 30–45% of assets in equities to ensure long-term wealth creation, whereas India currently allocates only 17% to equities.
• National Savings: Studies from the US and UK indicate that tax incentives for retirement products generally lead to a net increase in national savings rather than just a reallocation of existing wealth.

The US 401(k) Model: A Key Milestone

The sources highlight the US system as a primary inspiration for Indian reform. The US retirement market is built on a three-pillar model consisting of Social Security, Employer-Sponsored Plans (like the 401(k)), and Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs).

• Evolution: A major shift occurred in 1981 when regulations allowed workers to make tax-deferred contributions to Defined Contribution (DC) plans. Subsequent reforms, such as the Pension Protection Act (PPA) of 2006, simplified workplace savings and introduced "catch-up contributions" for older workers.
• Scale and Participation: As of December 2024, the 401(k) system has grown to 70 million active participants managing $8.9 trillion in assets.
• Symbiosis with Mutual Funds: Mutual funds are the "funnel" for these assets; 90% of US households that own mutual funds use them to save for retirement. Approximately 65% of all 401(k) assets are invested through mutual funds, including target-date and index funds.

Application to India: The MF-VRA Proposal

Drawing directly from the "U.S. experience," the sources propose a Mutual Fund - Voluntary Retirement Account (MF-VRA) for India. This proposed model seeks to replicate the 401(k) success by offering:

• Employer-Linked Options: Incentivizing employers to co-contribute through tax benefits.
• Flexibility and Portability: Allowing accounts to be transferred across jobs and opened by freelancers or gig workers without employer involvement.
• Lifecycle Investing: Using "Retirement Lifecycle Funds" that automatically adjust asset allocation (from aggressive to conservative) as an investor ages, a feature that has been highly effective in the US.
• Tax Efficiency: Seeking tax deductions under Section 80C or similar provisions to encourage middle-to-high income earners to participate.

By replicating this model, the sources argue India can build a pool of "patient capital" that fuels national infrastructure while providing citizens with a retirement marked by dignity and independence.

The proposed Mutual Fund - Voluntary Retirement Account (MF-VRA) is a voluntary, employer-linked retirement product designed to provide structured financial security to a broader segment of the Indian population. Drawing inspiration from the US 401(k) model, it seeks to create a robust layer of individual pension planning within India’s multi-pillar pension framework.

Core Features of the Proposed MF-VRA

The scheme is designed to be a flexible and professionally managed alternative to traditional pension products:

• Voluntary Participation & Inclusivity: The MF-VRA is open to all individuals regardless of employment status, specifically allowing freelancers, self-employed individuals, and gig economy workers to save for retirement independently.
• Employer-Sponsored Options: Employers are encouraged to offer the MF-VRA as a benefit by co-contributing to employee accounts, supported by proposed government tax incentives like payroll tax exemptions.
• Lifecycle Investing: Accounts would be managed through dedicated "Retirement Lifecycle Funds" that automatically rebalance portfolios—shifting from aggressive equity-heavy allocations to conservative debt-heavy ones—as the investor ages.
• Portability and Flexibility: The accounts are fully portable across jobs, and investors can customize their risk-return profiles based on their specific goals and investment horizons.
• Tax Efficiency: The proposal seeks tax deductions under Section 80C or similar provisions, following the EET (Exempt-Exempt-Taxed) model common in OECD countries to encourage long-term participation.
• Withdrawal Rules: To ensure the corpus is used for its intended purpose, access would be restricted until retirement age (e.g., 60), with limited exceptions for hardships like medical emergencies.

Context of Retirement and Mutual Funds in India

The sources argue that the MF-VRA is a necessary response to India's demographic urgency, where the elderly population is expected to reach 346 million by 2050. This shift occurs as traditional informal support systems, such as family care, are declining due to increasing urbanization and the nuclearization of families.

The mutual fund industry is positioned as the ideal vehicle for this scheme due to several factors:

• Low Current Indicators: India’s mandatory pension coverage is only 27.2%, and pension assets are just 11% of GDP, compared to 130-150% in developed markets.
• Infrastructure and Governance: The industry already operates under a robust regulatory framework with monthly portfolio disclosures, standardized risk-o-meters, and high transparency.
• Technology and Reach: With nearly 90% of transactions being digital and rapid asset growth in B-30 (Beyond-30) cities, the industry has the scale to reach traditionally underpenetrated regions.

Stakeholder Roadmap for Implementation

For the MF-VRA to succeed, the sources define specific roles for the financial ecosystem:

• Regulators (SEBI & CBDT): Must define the product structure and introduce the necessary tax incentives to make the scheme attractive to middle-to-high income earners.
• Fund Houses: Responsible for creating the lifecycle funds and enabling systematic withdrawal plans (SWP) for retirement income.
• Government Ministries: Must establish portability provisions to allow seamless transfers between the MF-VRA, EPFO, and NPS.
• Distributors and Fintechs: Tasked with building user-friendly onboarding tools and driving investor awareness to shift the focus toward long-term financial goals.

Ultimately, the MF-VRA is envisioned as a "win-win" that safeguards personal independence while channeling household savings into productive long-term capital to fuel India's "Viksit Bharat" journey.

The sources describe the strategic benefits of integrating mutual funds into India's retirement landscape as a "win-win" for all participants in the financial ecosystem. By creating a structured voluntary retirement system like the proposed MF-VRA, India can convert a looming demographic challenge into a driver of national progress.

The strategic benefits are categorized by their impact on different stakeholders:

1. Benefits for the Government and Economy

• Reduced Fiscal Burden: Expanding private pension coverage reduces the long-term pressure on the government exchequer to provide social security as the population ages.
• Economic Growth: These schemes channel household savings into productive, long-term capital that can fund national infrastructure, businesses, and innovation.
• Increased Penetration: It aids government initiatives to deepen financial inclusion and improve the overall social security system in the country.

2. Benefits for Financial Markets

• Capital Supply and Stability: Retirement money acts as "patient capital," providing long-term stability to the markets and acting as a hedge against short-term speculative capital.
• Enhanced Governance: When savings are routed through professional managers like mutual funds, it boosts corporate governance and information disclosure across the market.
• Market Depth: It stimulates financial innovation to meet the diverse needs of a massive population, increasing the overall breadth and efficiency of the financial system.

3. Benefits for Asset Management Companies (AMCs) and Intermediaries

• Industry Scale: Channelling retirement money can help the Indian mutual fund industry build massive scale, similar to the US market where retirement assets account for 47% of total industry assets.
• Operational Efficiency: Long-term, consistent flows allow for better deployment strategies and improved cost structures.
• Value Proposition: For intermediaries, it offers an enhanced value proposition for their clients and provides long-term stability in terms of incentives.

4. Strategic Benefits for Individual Investors

• Wealth Creation: Investors can harness long-term allocation to productive assets like equities, which is essential for building a corpus that can sustain decades of life after work.
• Supplementing Income: It provides a necessary additional layer of individual planning to supplement mandatory government schemes, which currently offer low replacement rates in India.
• Financial Independence: Ultimately, these benefits empower citizens to enjoy a retirement marked by dignity, independence, and peace of mind, supporting the national vision of a Viksit Bharat by 2047.

The implementation of a Mutual Fund - Voluntary Retirement Account (MF-VRA) in India requires a highly coordinated effort among various stakeholders in the financial ecosystem. The sources outline a detailed roadmap for success, categorized into Regulatory Enablers and Operational Design requirements.

1. Requirements for Regulatory Enablers

The government and regulators must provide the legal and fiscal framework to make the scheme viable and attractive:

• SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India): Tasked with defining the core product structure, reporting standards, and mandatory disclosures to ensure clarity and consistency across the industry.
• CBDT (Central Board of Direct Taxes): Must introduce a specific tax deduction section for the MF-VRA to incentivize participation, particularly for middle-to-high income earners who are sensitive to upfront tax relief.
• Ministry of Labour & Finance: Responsible for establishing portability provisions between the MF-VRA, EPFO, and NPS to allow individuals to continue their retirement savings seamlessly even if they change jobs or relocate.

2. Operational Design Requirements

The industry must build the products and tools to manage and distribute these accounts effectively:

• Fund Houses (AMCs): Required to create "Retirement Lifecycle Funds" that feature automatic glide paths—shifting from aggressive equity allocations to conservative debt ones as the investor ages. They must also enable robust systematic investment and withdrawal (SWP) options for a steady income stream in retirement.
• Employers: Encouraged to voluntarily offer a co-contribution model, similar to the US 401(k), and partner with retirement aggregators to facilitate efficient management of employee contributions.
• Distributors and Fintechs: Tasked with designing user-friendly onboarding and goal-tracking tools. They are also responsible for driving investor awareness and shifting the public focus toward long-term financial planning.

3. Leveraging Existing Infrastructure

The sources argue that the implementation is feasible because the mutual fund industry already has a solid foundation to build upon:

• Scale and Reach: The industry manages over Rs 75 lakh crore in assets across 24 crore folios, with a rapidly growing presence in B-30 (Beyond-30) cities.
• Technology and Governance: Nearly 90% of mutual fund transactions are already digital, and the industry operates under a robust regulatory framework that includes monthly portfolio disclosures and standardized risk management.
• Awareness Pedestal: The success of the "#Mutual Fund Sahi Hai" campaign, which added 19 crore folios between 2017 and 2025, provides a proven platform to launch a national pension-awareness program.

Ultimately, these requirements are framed as a "win-win" for the nation, as they channel household savings into long-term capital while providing citizens with a retirement marked by dignity and independence in the journey toward Viksit Bharat.

Newspaper Summary - 050726

     Top IT stocks stare at great valuation reset PREMIUM PUZZLE. While Indian IT valuation premium currently ranges from 40-80% over Accenture, the earnings growth outlook lacks the same optimism

Kumar Shankar Roy & Hari Viswanath

Welcome to the new guessing game in town, that is, ‘Are IT stocks cheap?’. The debate has been raging for the last six months and each time it appears cheap enough, another blow knocks it lower. A few weeks back it was Accenture’s disappointing outlook that triggered a correction. Last week it was KPIT Tech’s negative pre-announcement that saw the stock crash around 25 per cent.

After a 30 per cent correction in the Nifty IT index over the past year, the sector’s valuation multiples have compressed sharply. On trailing earnings, the index is now around 18 times, a level that looks modest compared with its own multi-year averages. On the face of it that sounds like a classic valuation reset. The more uncomfortable question is whether this reset is full, or halfway through.

Look at the Big Four. TCS, Infosys and Wipro now trade around 14-15 times trailing earnings, while HCL Technologies is slightly higher at 18 times Price-to-Earnings (P/E). These numbers look sober when compared with the post-Covid boom excesses (broadly 30-40x).

That phase has clearly ended. TCS’ P/E has more than halved from a peak of about 42 times to around 15. Ditto for Infosys, which has slipped from about 38 times to 15. Wipro has moved from about 32 times to 14. HCLTech, too, is down from its peak (32x). So, yes, the market has done some cleaning up. The problem is that the cupboard may not yet be fully ship-shape.

This is not a sudden change in stance. bl.portfolio has been cautious on Indian IT for about three years, arguing that the sector’s post-Covid valuation premium was running ahead of earnings reality. In our February 8 edition, after the latest AI scare hit IT stocks, we had noted that investors should not view corrections as a buy-the-dip opportunity.

The historical comparison is revealing. TCS, Infosys and Wipro are now below their pre-Covid P/E levels. That gives bulls a decent argument; the froth has gone, businesses remain cash-rich, payout yields are attractive, and any improvement in demand can trigger a sharp rebound.

Bears have an equally simple question: If these companies are no longer growing like premium compounders, why should they be considered cheap?

INCONVENIENT FACTS In our article titled ‘Accenture sets the tone for IT stocks’ (bl.portfolio of April 28, 2024), we had explained why Indian IT stocks’ valuation cannot decouple from the valuation of global IT stocks like Accenture.

Today, Accenture, trading at 10x the trailing P/E, becomes the inconvenient global mirror. A gold standard in IT services and consulting globally, its valuation, earnings expectations and demand commentary matter. In the pre-Covid decade, Accenture used to trade at a premium to TCS (which, in turn, used to trade at a premium to Infosys, HCL Tech and Wipro). Bear in mind that Accenture has significantly outperformed its peers, clocking a 10 per cent USD EPS CAGR for the FY16-26 period, comfortably outpacing the growth rates of HCL Tech, Infosys and TCS (all 6 per cent CAGR), and Wipro (3 per cent CAGR). Even after factoring for currency benefit, the EPS CAGR for Indian peers at 7-9 per cent CAGR is below Accenture.

While Accenture’s margins are lower than TCS, its larger scale and higher revenue share from high-end business used to garner it a premium over Indian IT. Post Covid, the valuation math has changed. Today, the valuation premium of Wipro, Infosys, TCS and HCL Tech at 39 per cent, 46 per cent, 53 per cent and 84 per cent, respectively, appears unjustifiable. This implies whenever IT stocks rebound, Accenture is likely to outperform Indian peers.

The basic issue is simpler: Are Indian IT companies expected to grow materially faster than Accenture? For Accenture, one-year forward consensus PAT growth is about 6 per cent. For TCS, Infosys, and Wipro, the corresponding numbers are 8 per cent, 4.7 per cent, and 9.5 per cent aided by currency depreciation. Now, the premium question becomes less emotional and more arithmetic.

The other inconvenient fact is growth. Stocks are cheap when one looks at the information in the rear-view mirror or against their own historical valuation, but are they cheap when one looks at data in front? With the industry in the midst of a once-in-a-generation AI disruption, the future growth rate is entirely unpredictable, making any valuation exercise, for now, largely speculative. While a case can be made on the payout ratios with trailing dividend yield, say, for companies like TCS at 5.2 per cent, there may be a situation in future where if companies need to deliver on growth they will have to invest, impacting dividends.

In this context, mid-cap IT offers a sharper warning. Even after correction, several names still trade at premium valuations. Persistent, Coforge and Mphasis trade in a 30-40x trailing PE band. KPIT Tech’s more than 15 per cent single-day fall on July 1 showed what happens when the market starts questioning the extra-growth story. The stock is still trading near 25x. Others like Tata Elxsi trade at 35x even after a 41 per cent correction over the last one year.

Has the market already priced in the pain, or is it merely rediscovering that even great companies need growth to deserve great multiples? That is the $250-billion-dollar (Nifty IT total m-cap) question right now.

FPIs turn net buyers, pump in ₹16,461 cr this week

Anupama Ghosh Mumbai

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) turned net buyers in Indian markets during the week ended July 3, pumping in a net ₹16,461.84 crore across equity, debt and hybrid instruments over all five trading sessions, according to data from the National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL). The week, which began with the final two sessions of June before transitioning into July, saw net inflows on each trading day.

FPIs recorded their highest single-session investment of the week on June 29 at ₹5,986.33 crore, followed by ₹4,334.95 crore on June 30. In July, net inflows stood at ₹552.98 crore. This performance contrasts with the broader trend in June, when FPIs remained net sellers in equities. During the month, they pulled out ₹49,340.45 crore from equities through stock exchanges and the primary market combined.

However, debt markets attracted robust flows, with FPIs investing ₹30,620.28 crore under the General Limit, ₹21,652.09 crore through the Fully Accessible Route (FAR), and ₹3,246.04 crore under the Voluntary Retention Route (VRR). Overall, June ended with a net FPI inflow of ₹4,668.86 crore across all asset classes.

STEEP YTD OUTFLOWS “The highlight of the June FPI activity is the significant tapering of FPI selling and their buying for a few sessions,” noted analysts. Despite the recent buying, FPIs remain heavy net sellers in 2026. As of July 3, cumulative net outflows across all asset classes stood at ₹2,12,872.28 crore. Equities bore the brunt of the selling, with net outflows of ₹2,74,272.90 crore through the secondary and primary markets combined.

“The total FPI selling for 2026 till the end of June stands at ₹2,94,387 crore through stock exchanges,” [analyst] Vijayakumar said. “Since FPIs invested ₹20,114 crore through the primary market, the net FPI outflow this year through June-end stood at ₹2,74,272 crore”.

CRUDE, RE AND RAINS Market participants are now tracking a mix of domestic and global factors. “A crash in crude prices to below $72/barrel and the large inflows expected from FCNR(B) deposits will significantly reduce India’s balance of payments deficit,” he said. “This will help the rupee stabilise and even appreciate, which, in turn, will prevent large FPI selling”.

Analysts also expect institutional flows to remain sensitive to the progress of the monsoon, given its implications for rural demand and inflation, as well as the unfolding Q1FY27 earnings season. Global cues, including developments in US-Iran negotiations, crude oil prices and the minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting will also shape investor sentiment.

Clouded under El Nino skies

RAIN OR SHINE? With the El Nino event confirmed by several global weather agencies, the fear seems real now. Here’s a look at how it could impact agriculture, allied sectors and markets, should there be a weak monsoon this year.

Nalinakanthi V & Nagaragopal

Come May, one event that is most-awaited and tracked by India Inc and investors is the onset of the South-West monsoon and its progression. The 2026 South-West monsoon season has opened on a weak note, with the country recording a 40 per cent deficient rainfall in June. However, the IMD expects monsoon to progress, beginning this week. One word that is frequently making the headlines is El Nino. And with several global weather agencies having confirmed the event, the fear seems real now. But is El Nino something investors should really worry about?

For those who are unfamiliar with the Spanish word, it basically denotes the adverse changes (rapid increase) in the sea-surface temperature (SST) over central and eastern Pacific region. This affects the trade wind formation and movement, eventually resulting in below-normal rainfall in Australia and South-East Asian regions such as Indonesia and also has an impact on India’s monsoon rainfall. But an El Nino event does not necessarily spell doom. Much depends on its timing. If conditions intensify only after September, the impact on India is likely to be limited, as the South-West monsoon accounts for nearly two-thirds of the country's annual rainfall.

The intensity of the El Nino event is very crucial. The Nino 3.4 Index, in addition to trade winds, atmospheric response and sub-surface ocean temperatures, is the basis for ascertaining the event. If the SST value is above 0.5 for five consecutive three-month overlapping seasons, then it’s a weak El Nino. An SST value between 0.5 and 1.5 implies a moderate El Nino; while any value above 1.5 indicates a stronger event. We have had two El Nino episodes in the last three decades — 2015 and 2023. But in 2015, which is considered moderate El Nino, the overall rainfall deficit was 12.7 of the Long period Average (LPA). Interestingly, in 2009, which was a drought year, the SST values during the season were under 0.5, indicating a no El Nino year. Likewise, 2014, too, was not an El Nino year.

It is clear that El Nino is not the only reason for a poor monsoon. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a climate phenomenon caused by variations in sea temperatures in the Indian Ocean. Its positive, negative and neutral phases can influence the Indian monsoon. A positive IOD brings good rainfall to India, while a negative IOD results in lower seasonal rainfall. Other factors include Madden Julien Oscillation (MJO), more of a short-term phenomenon lasting for about 60 days, unlike an IOD or El Nino, which last for several months.

CURRENT STATUS As per SST data published by the IMD, the SST value was -0.1 for the March-May period, which is an increase from -0.9 in the December-February period. However, as per the latest data released by Columbia Climate school, the SST anomaly measured using Nino 3.4 Index, which was at 0.48 degree Celsius in March-May period, has increased swiftly to 0.94 degree Celsius by May and further increased to 1.7 by June 17. This indicates a strong possibility of a moderate-to-severe El Nino event this season. Multiple agencies, including National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, have confirmed the El Nino event.

The IOD, which was positive to neutral at the start of the year, is now showing a swing towards negative zone — with the May IOD at -0.39 in the IMD website. MJO is possibly not presenting clear indications yet. However, the IMD has indicated widespread rainfall this week, supported by formation of a ‘low’. While the rainfall progress in July remains extremely crucial, the Indian government has launched an emergency plan to protect crops in 315 districts with irrigation infrastructure gaps and significant deficiency in rainfall and the farming community is preparing itself for the worst. The government is helping the farming community to navigate this phase by shifting to crops, such as millets and pulses, which can thrive on less water, use of climate-resistant and short-duration crops, etc.

FOODGRAIN PRODUCTION The impact of a weak monsoon is visible, either through flattish output or a marginal decline in output during the years when the monsoon has been below normal. For instance, in 2009-10, which followed the 2009 drought year, foodgrain production slipped 7 per cent. In the following years — 2014 and 2015 — production was lower by 4.9 per cent and 0.2 per cent, respectively. Similarly, in 2019, when the rainfall was a tad lower, the growth in foodgrain production was flat. As foodgrain production is highly sensitive to monsoon rainfall, this needs to be closely monitored. Meaningful improvement in rainfall will be crucial to keeping food inflation under check. Levels of farm income and food inflation are two important variables that have a bearing on economy and interest rates and thereby on the markets.

However, India has, over the last three decades, managed to increase the area under irrigation — from 33.6 per cent in 1990-91 to 39 per cent by 2001 and 59 per cent by 2023. States such as Punjab and Tamil Nadu have seen significant improvement in the irrigation penetration, while Maharashtra continues to be significantly dependent on the monsoon, making it more vulnerable, given that the State is a key producer of sugarcane and cotton.

SECTORS THAT NEED TO BE WATCHED While conventional wisdom suggests that agri and allied sectors may be the first casualty of a weak monsoon, historical data show resilience. For instance, fertilizer sales have remained strong even during weak monsoon years. During the drought year of 2009, fertilizer consumption grew 6.4 per cent year-on-year. Similarly, in 2014 and 2015, fertilizer sales grew 4.5 per cent and 4.3 per cent, respectively. This is largely because purchases typically happen ahead of the season and high government subsidies on urea and complex fertilizers support consumption. Stocks such as Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals, and Coromandel International have delivered healthy gains irrespective of monsoon concerns.

However, the significant jump in input costs for the sector due to the US-Iran war could result in an increase in working capital needs and impact profitability. Sulphur has risen from $350 per tonne in 2025 to almost $850 per tonne in 2026. The cost of anhydrous ammonia and global gas prices have also witnessed sharp rises.

Agrochemicals traditionally see some correlation to monsoon rainfall because only the purchase of preventive sprays happens ahead of the monsoon. The industry witnessed growth stagnation in 2014 and 2015 but staged a strong recovery after 2015. Input price hikes due to the US-Iran war may play spoilsport in the short term.

BENEFICIARIES Some sectors cheer a weak monsoon. Construction and building materials sectors share an inverse relationship with the South-West monsoon. A poor monsoon means uninterrupted construction activity and stronger demand for materials such as cement, steel, and paints. Mining also benefits, as activity typically remains lull during heavy rainfall. Power generation (coal and solar), which can be disrupted by monsoons, may see higher output if rainfall is lower than expected.

FARM INCOME Sectors riding the rural consumption wave, like two-wheeler producers and farm equipment makers, see tepid sales in years of lower agricultural output. FMCG companies with a significant share of revenues from rural markets also show a strong correlation with monsoon rainfall, though with a lag effect. For example, Hindustan Unilever reported flat revenues and an operating profit decline in FY16 after two consecutive weak monsoons. P&G Hygiene and Healthcare, Dabur, and Marico also saw revenue growth stagnate or mirror weak growth in these periods.

MONSOON AND INFLATION A weak monsoon affects food and beverage (F&B) consumer price inflation (CPI) with a one-year lag. After the weak 2023 monsoon, F&B monthly CPI shot up to a new high of over 10 per cent in 2024 and remained high until 2025. Sugar is another critical product; any reduction in cane acreage or yield due to a weak monsoon could risk domestic availability and India’s ambitious ethanol blending programme (EBP).

MONSOON AND MARKET India’s equity indices have historically remained unaffected by monsoon vagaries. The Nifty 50 Index has shown resilience, delivering positive returns during weak monsoon years like 2002, 2004, 2009, and 2023. The index composition, with significant weightage for banks, financial services, IT, oil & gas, and metals, is a key reason for this.

Overall, history indicates the impact of a weak El Nino monsoon is not broad-based and only affects a few sectors. However, current risks include inflation from reduced agri produce and consumption risks from falling rural incomes. Geopolitical situations, crude price volatility, and the weakening Indian rupee also need tracking by investors.

Bulls charge up

INDEX OUTLOOK. An inverted head and shoulder pattern on the charts of Nifty and Sensex reinforce the bullish case

By Gurumurthy K

Nifty 50 and Sensex have risen breaking above their intermediate resistance in line with our expectation. That keeps our overall bullish view intact. Both the indices were up about 0.9 per cent each last week. An inverted head and shoulder pattern is being formed on the daily chart, which strengthens the bullish case for both the Sensex and Nifty to go much higher in the coming weeks.

Nifty Bank index, on the other hand, has been stuck inside a narrow range for the third consecutive week. The index fell within the range and was down 0.4 per cent for the week. However, the bias remains positive, and the index is expected to make a bullish breakout of this range going forward. Among the sectors, the BSE Realty index surged the most last week, rising 7.8 per cent.

FPIs BUY

Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) were net buyers of Indian equities for the third consecutive week, purchasing about $463 million last week. If FPIs accelerate their purchases in the coming weeks, it could further aid the Sensex and Nifty in moving higher.

NIFTY 50 (24,270.85)

• Short-term view: Nifty has broken above the resistance at 24,200. This move confirms a bullish inverted head and shoulder pattern on the daily chart. Immediate supports are at 24,200, 24,000, and 23,900. Nifty can rise to 24,750-24,800 from here, with a pattern target of 25,300. Only a decline below 23,900 would turn the near-term picture negative.
• Medium-term view: Nifty is moving within a broad 22,000-26,500 range and is expected to test the upper end in a couple of months. The long-term bias is positive, suggesting a potential breakout above 26,500 toward 28,000 or even 30,000.

NIFTY BANK (57,938.50)

• Short-term view: The index remains in a narrow range (56,800–58,800). A bullish breakout above 58,800 could take the index to 60,500 and 61,500. Conversely, breaking below 56,800 could lead to a fall to 56,000.
• Medium-term outlook: The broader outlook is bullish. A break above the 61,000-61,500 resistance region would open the way for a rise to 65,000 and eventually 68,000-69,000. Important supports are at 53,500 and 50,000.

SENSEX (77,763.91)

The resistance at 77,400 has been broken, keeping the bullish target of 78,800-79,000 intact. A strong rise above 79,000 will confirm the inverted head and shoulder pattern, targeting 81,000-81,500 in the coming weeks. Supports are at 77,400, 76,700, and 76,000. Decisively breaching 81,500 could clear the path toward 86,000 in the medium term and 90,000-94,000 in the long term.

NIFTY MIDCAP 150 (22,884.35)

The index has recovered from its low of 22,539. Supports are at 22,750 and 22,600, with resistance in the 23,200-23,300 region. A breakout above 23,300 could trigger a rally to 26,000-26,500 in the medium term and 28,000-28,500 in the long term.

NIFTY SMALLCAP 250 (17,996.25)

Support at 17,550 held firm as expected. The index is now testing the crucial resistance level of 18,300. A decisive breach of 18,300 could take the index to 22,500-23,000 in the medium term and 24,000-25,000 in the long term.

SHORT-TERM TARGETS

• Nifty 50: 24,750-24,800
• Sensex: 81,000-81,500
• Nifty Bank: 60,500-61,500

Crucial juncture

US MARKET OUTLOOK. The Dow Jones close to an important resistance

By Gurumurthy K

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ Composite Index have risen well last week. The Dow Jones has come close to its crucial resistance. The recovery in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite looks shallow. Broadly, we prefer to remain cautious rather than being overly bullish on the US equities at the moment.

Here is an analysis on how the US markets can perform in the coming week:

DOW JONES (52,900.07)

The Dow Jones surged to a record high of 52,903.85 last week and has closed on a strong note. However, a crucial resistance is at 53,150, which will need a close watch this week. Failure to breach this hurdle and a subsequent fall below 52,000 will be bearish, indicating a top in place. In that case, the Dow Jones can fall back to 50,000-49,000 in the coming weeks. A sustained rise above 53,150 is needed to keep the upmove going; if that happens, then a rise to 55,000 is possible. We prefer to remain cautious rather than being overly bullish at the moment.

S&P 500 (7,483.25)

The S&P 500 index has risen back well and recovered almost all the loss made in the previous week. But the price action indicates the absence of strong buyers above 7,500. So, we will have to wait and watch the movement for a few days to get clarity. Even if the index goes above 7,500, it has to breach 7,600 decisively to gain bullish momentum.

NASDAQ COMPOSITE (25,832.67)

The resistance at 26,250 mentioned last week has held very well. The NASDAQ Composite index touched a high of 26,261 and has come down from there. Near-term support is at 25,600. A break below it can drag the index down to 25,000 again, potentially keeping the downside open to see 24,200-24,000 eventually in the coming weeks. The index has to rise past 26,250 in order to get some breather; only then is a rise to 27,000-27,500 possible.

DOLLAR INDEX (100.88)

Doubts have been raised that the US Federal Reserve will not be in a hurry to increase the interest rates immediately. On the charts, the picture remains positive. Supports for the dollar index are at 100.60 and 100.40, which are likely to limit the downside. We expect the dollar index to rise above 101 decisively and go up to 103 initially. That will also keep our medium-term bullish view intact to see 105-106 on the upside. The index has to decline below 100.40 to turn the short-term picture negative, which could lead to a fall to 99.50.

TREASURY YIELD

The US 10Yr Treasury Yield (4.49 per cent) has risen back sharply from its low of 4.36 per cent last week. Key resistances are at 4.5 per cent and 4.55 per cent. A decisive break above 4.55 per cent is needed to boost the bullish momentum.

The long game in IPO investing

FUND CALL. Edelweiss Recently Listed IPO Fund looks beyond listing gains, aiming to identify newly listed companies with the potential to become long-term market leaders

Dhuraivel Gunasekaran bl. research bureau

Investing in newly-listed companies can give investors early access to businesses with the potential for strong long-term growth. However, capturing these opportunities is not easy for retail investors. Identifying fundamentally-sound companies, securing allotment in often oversubscribed IPOs and staying invested through the inevitable volatility can be challenging.

The Edelweiss Recently Listed IPO Fund (ERLIF) seeks to address these challenges by investing in a curated portfolio of recently-listed companies through disciplined stock selection and long-term portfolio construction. Launched as the close-ended Edelweiss Maiden Opportunities Fund - Series 1 in 2018, the scheme was converted into an open-ended fund and renamed in June 2021. Over the last seven years, it has delivered a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19 per cent compared with 14 per cent for the Nifty 500 Total Return Index.

LONG-TERM INVESTMENT

Instead of seeking quick listing gains, the fund focuses on identifying businesses with the potential to emerge as long-term market leaders during their three-five year post-listing growth journey.

The fund’s investment universe is restricted to the 100 most-recently listed companies in India. Regulations require at least 80 per cent of the portfolio to remain invested in this universe, while the balance can be allocated to older IPOs that continue to offer attractive growth prospects. Over the last five years, the portfolio has typically held 42-58 stocks. It builds positions through anchor allocations, during the IPO process, immediately after listing or even several quarters later if valuations become attractive and business execution remains strong.

SCREENING FRAMEWORK

Not every IPO qualifies for investment. The fund excludes SME IPOs, pre-IPO investments, companies with a market capitalisation below ₹1,000 crore and IPOs with issue sizes below ₹500 crore. These filters seek to improve portfolio quality while reducing liquidity risk. Research begins once a company files its draft red herring prospectus (DRHP). The evaluation process includes management interactions, customer and supplier meetings, plant visits, financial analysis and valuation assessment.

The fund follows a selective approach rather than investing in every IPO. It invested in 55 of the 104 IPOs launched in 2025 and in eight of the 21 IPOs launched so far this year. Historically, its participation rate has ranged between 35 per cent and 55 per cent. Even if the primary market remains inactive for an extended period, the fund’s strategy is unlikely to be affected, as its investment universe comprises the 100 most-recently listed companies rather than only fresh IPOs.

About 60-70 per cent of the portfolio is allocated to secular growth businesses that benefit from long-term structural trends, possess competitive advantages and are expected to sustain earnings growth over extended periods. The remaining portfolio largely comprises cyclical businesses, where valuations become the key determinant. Since industry cycles can reverse quickly, the fund invests only when valuations provide an adequate margin of safety.

IPO companies often command premium valuations as investors price in their future growth potential. Reflecting this, the fund’s portfolio traded at a P/E of 59 times as of May 2026, well above the flexi-cap fund category average of 38 times. While valuation remains a key consideration, the fund balances it with business quality and long-term growth prospects rather than pursuing low valuations alone.

MID-, SMALL-CAP BIAS

The portfolio has a natural bias towards mid- and small-cap companies, reflecting the composition of India’s IPO market. Over the last five years, the fund’s average allocation to large-, mid- and small-cap stocks stood at 12 per cent, 20 per cent and 56 per cent respectively. Most investee companies typically have market capitalisations between ₹5,000 crore and ₹30,000 crore.

PORTFOLIO COMPOSITION

One distinguishing feature of the fund is its exposure to emerging sectors and business models. IPO cycles often mirror the changing structure of the economy. Depending on the listing pipeline, the portfolio may gain exposure to financial services, insurance, defence, pharmaceuticals, contract manufacturing, digital platforms and other fast-growing industries that remain underrepresented in traditional diversified funds.

Sector exposure is capped at 25 per cent. As of May 2026, pharmaceuticals (11 per cent), retailing (9 per cent) and capital markets (9 per cent) were the largest sector exposures. However, the sector mix changes significantly as new companies enter the investable universe and existing holdings are exited based on valuations and business prospects.

A bl.portfolio analysis of the fund’s portfolio since inception shows that investments in Polycab India, Dixon Technologies, Affle 3i, Laurus Labs and IRCTC generated multibagger returns. In contrast, investments in Ellenbarrie Industrial Gases, Shankara Building Products, DAM Capital Advisors, Quess Corp, Spandana Sphoorty Financial and FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) destroyed investor wealth. This illustrates the fund’s high-risk, high-reward nature.

EXIT STRATEGY

Stocks are exited under three broad scenarios:

• When a better IPO opportunity emerges than the existing stocks.
• When a company achieves its growth potential earlier than expected and valuations leave limited upside.
• When it materially deviates from its IPO strategy or the original investment thesis no longer holds.

PERFORMANCE

The fund has delivered strong long-term performance. Since inception, its five-year rolling return has averaged 18.5 per cent CAGR compared with 17.5 per cent for the Nifty 500 TRI. Rolling returns ranged between 9 per cent and 26 per cent. On a three-year rolling basis, the fund generated an average CAGR of 19.3 per cent against 17.8 per cent for the Nifty 500 TRI. The regular plan carries an expense ratio of 1.9 per cent, while the direct plan’s expense ratio is 0.83 per cent.

TAKEAWAY

Apart from the Edelweiss IPO Fund, there are two recently-launched passive funds from Mirae Asset and Motilal Oswal, which track the BSE Select IPO Index. These have a limited track record of around one year.

The Edelweiss Recently Listed IPO Fund offers investors an opportunity to participate in the three-five year post-listing growth phase of newly-listed companies rather than pursuing short-term listing gains. However, the fund can underperform during market corrections or risk-off phases, as recently-listed companies tend to witness sharper valuation corrections than the broader market. Given its thematic mandate and significant exposure to mid- and small-cap companies, the fund is best suited as a satellite allocation. Investors looking for dedicated exposure can consider the fund through the systematic investment route with an investment horizon of at least five years.