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Monday, July 13, 2026

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 13, 2026

 The following is a full reproduction of the provided text from the article "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 13, 2026."

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 13, 2026

Ukrainian forces continue to intensify and expand their strike campaign aimed at denying Russia’s ability to sustain logistics and transport fuel to occupied Crimea and isolate the peninsula. The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) reported on July 13 that Ukrainian forces conducted a large-scale strike operation on the night of July 12 to 13, simultaneously striking Russian military, logistics, and fuel facilities in occupied Crimea and Russia. The SBU reported that Ukrainian forces struck two Russian project 12150 Mangust-class patrol boats in the Black Sea; hangars with military and special equipment at the Baherove military air base in occupied Crimea; three stationary radar stations used to detect Ukrainian unmanned service vehicles (USVs) and drones in an unspecified location; the Yeisk and Maria cargo and passenger ferries at the Krym ferry terminal in occupied Kerch, Crimea; the Lavrentiy and Panagia cargo and passenger ferries and three oil tanks in the port of Kavkaz, Krasnodar Krai; a railway warehouse with oil tanks at the Kavkaz freight station, Krasnodar Krai; and an oil tank farm at an oil depot in Vyazniki, Stavropol Krai.

Ukrainian forces are engaged in a systematic multipronged interdiction campaign aimed at isolating Crimea and denying Russia the ability to sustain logistics to the peninsula, striking bridges, major highways, and rail infrastructure from occupied Kherson Oblast to occupied Crimea; Kerch Strait crossings and ferries moving between occupied Crimea and Krasnodar Krai; and fuel tankers and vessels in the Sea of Azov. The SBU’s July 12 to 13 overnight strikes demonstrate the enhanced planning capabilities of Ukrainian forces in their ability to simultaneously conduct such strikes against various targets. Continued Ukrainian strikes, if sustained, can continue to disrupt Russia’s ability to sustain logistics to the peninsula, which can degrade frontline Russian offensive operations and impede Russian advances in southern Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces reportedly liberated six settlements and 120 square kilometers in the Oleksandrivka direction over an unspecified time period as part of their ongoing counterattacks in the area supported by intensifying intermediate-range strikes. A Ukrainian regiment operating in the Oleksandrivka direction announced on July 13 that Ukrainian forces liberated Ternove, Zaporizke, Novoheorhiivka, Vorone, Sichneve, and Maliivka (all southeast of Oleksandrivka), liberating 120 square kilometers and advancing 25 kilometers in depth. The regiment seemingly deleted its original announcement without issuing a formal statement retracting its initial report later on July 13, but several Ukrainian media outlets have reported on and republished the announcement. Ukrainian forces began counterattacks in the Oleksandrivka direction in Winter 2026, liberating around 480 square kilometers in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia oblasts since January 2026. The regiment reported that it inflicted critical losses on elements of the Russian 120th Naval Infantry Division (Baltic Fleet) and destroyed a personnel concentration of the Russian 656th Motorized Rifle Regiment in Temyrivka, forcing Russian units to retreat. Ukraine’s tactical success in the Oleksandrivka direction continues to force Russia to choose between defending against Ukrainian counterattacks or allocating manpower and resources to priority sectors.

A Russian Geran-2 drone struck Copanca, Moldova, on the night of July 12 to 13. The Moldovan Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported on July 13 that a Russian Geran-2 (the Russian-produced version of an Iranian Shahed-136) drone crashed and exploded in Copanca, roughly 25 kilometers from the Moldovan-Ukrainian border, after entering Moldovan airspace during strikes against Odesa Oblast. Russian drones or drone debris have crashed onto Moldovan territory over 20 times and onto Romanian territory at least 30 times since February 2022. Increasingly frequent Russian drone incursions into European and NATO airspace indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin has adopted a reckless policy that accepts the risk of Russian drones entering European and NATO airspace as an acceptable consequence of its strikes in Ukraine. This underscores the need for European and NATO states to consider negotiating possible air defense agreements with Ukraine as a matter of self-defense.

Key Takeaways

  1. Ukrainian forces continue to intensify and expand their strike campaign aimed at denying Russia’s ability to sustain logistics and transport fuel to occupied Crimea and isolate the peninsula.
  2. Ukrainian forces reportedly liberated six settlements and 120 square kilometers in the Oleksandrivka direction over an unspecified time period as part of their ongoing counterattacks.
  3. A Russian Geran-2 drone struck Copanca, Moldova, on the night of July 12 to 13.
  4. Russian forces launched three Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 134 drones against Ukraine overnight.
  5. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Oleksandrivka direction.

Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation

Gasoline shortages due to Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure are impacting Russia’s agricultural sector and the delivery of aid to Russian forces. The Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) reported on July 10 that Russian farmers are complaining about fuel supply shortages, noting that the fuel crisis could lead to a loss of up to 30 percent of the harvest this season. Restrictions on gasoline sales are forcing Russian forklift drivers to fill up almost every hour, and prohibitions on filling canisters at gas stations are affecting the work of bulldozers or excavators that cannot drive on public roads. Several Russian volunteer organizations are also struggling to deliver humanitarian aid due to the shortages. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that July 11–12 strikes against the Syzran Oil Refinery damaged its AVT-5 and AVT-6 primary oil processing units.

Russian Supporting Effort: Northern Axis

Russian forces continue to conduct infiltration missions in northern Sumy Oblast. Geolocated footage published on July 13 shows Ukrainian forces striking a Russian position north of Komarivka after what ISW assesses was a Russian infiltration mission.

Russian Main Effort: Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast on July 12 and 13 but did not make confirmed advances. A Russian milblogger claimed Russian forces advanced in southern Kozacha Lopan. Ukrainian authorities implemented measures to protect against Russia’s growing first-person view (FPV) drone strike campaign by installing anti-drone nets on sections of the Kharkiv City ring road.

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Oskil River Russian forces continued infiltration missions in the Kupyansk direction. Geolocated footage published on July 13 shows Ukrainian forces striking a Russian-occupied building in central Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi after an assessed Russian infiltration mission. Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Borova direction on July 13 but did not advance.

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast Ukrainian forces maintain positions east of Slovyansk, contrary to previous Russian claims of advance. Russian forces continued infiltration missions within and southwest of Kostyantynivka. Geolocated footage published on July 4 and 8 shows Ukrainian forces striking Russian-occupied buildings in northwestern Kostyantynivka and eastern Dovha Balka after assessed Russian infiltration missions. Russian sources continue to publish likely artificial intelligence (AI)-altered footage showing alleged Russian advances in Kostyantynivka to propagate claims for informational effects. Russian forces are intensifying strikes against Druzhkivka, where 4,000 people remain without power, water, and gas. Ukrainian forces recently advanced or maintained positions in the Dobropillya tactical area. Ukrainian forces continued their strike campaign against Russian military assets in occupied Donetsk Oblast, striking a Russian Navy vessel in the port of Mariupol and various logistics targets in Kuteinykove, Starobesheve, and Yenakiieve.

Russian Supporting Effort: Southern Axis

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction and western Zaporizhia Oblast on July 12 and 13 but did not advance. Russian forces continue to use the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to store military equipment and launch drone strikes. The GUR reported that Russian forces are storing military equipment in engine rooms and using ZNPP roofs for machine-gun nests and missile systems. Russian forces are reportedly deploying drone control points at the plant, sometimes involving underage student workers from the Alabuga SEZ.

Ukrainian forces used a USV to deploy a UGV to the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast in the first unmanned amphibious assault mission. Strikes on Russian vessels have significantly reduced naval traffic in the Sea of Azov, with the number of vessels decreasing from 132 on July 6 to 43 on July 12. Ukrainian forces also continued to strike military and energy infrastructure in occupied Crimea overnight, hitting four power substations, an S-400 air defense system, and a large logistics hub near Armyansk.

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign

Russian forces conducted a series of long-range drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of July 12 to 13. The Ukrainian Air Force reported the launch of three Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 134 strike and decoy drones; Ukrainian forces downed all three missiles and 123 drones. Russian strikes damaged residential and commercial infrastructure across several oblasts and hit a Togo-flagged civilian merchant vessel carrying fertilizers. Strikes on the Chornomorsk port destroyed 45,000 tons of wheat and 9,000 tons of sunflower oil. Russia is increasingly using Shahed-type drones with jet engines, which fly at low altitudes and fast speeds, to frighten civilians and make Kyiv City "completely unlivable."

Significant Activity in Belarus

Nothing significant to report.

Newspaper Summary 140726

 The following is the article titled "Does America face a middle-age crisis—or existential?" by Narayan Ramachandran, reproduced from the sources:

Does America face a middle-age crisis—or existential?

By Narayan Ramachandran

America is 250 years old this year. It is tricky to establish a ‘nation-state’ equivalent of human years, but if I were to hazard a guess, then it would be about one nation-state year for every seven to ten human years. Broadly similar to the dog-human ageing relationship. Of course, dogs age unevenly with respect to humans, reaching a ‘human age’ of 24 in their first two years and then slowing down over the next decade plus. By this yardstick, the US today is middle-aged at most. There is no science behind this nation-state equivalence, only the backing of recorded history: great civilizations of the past often lasted a thousand years, a little more than 10 human lifespans by the aforesaid reckoner.

The Egyptian civilization was among the longest lasting; it endured from about 3000 BCE till its Roman annexation at the turn of [the era. The Ottoman Empire, which] conquered what’s now Istanbul, prevailed for about half a millennium. The Han dynasty in China held sway for nearly 400 years and the British Empire for about 350 years.

So, is America on its last legs, or is it going through a middle-age crisis, or simply a reset for a long innings ahead?. Like with the canine epigenetic clock, we must be careful in our analysis: this need not be a phase in which it ticks faster, as national ageing has no biological inevitability, nor would it be merely such a clock at work.

Before we evaluate America’s future, it is instructive to consider how the country got here. Alexis de Tocqueville, French philosopher and an early visitor to the US, made some incisive observations in his 1835 book, Democracy in America. He praised the US for its township self-government (a laboratory for democracy), its spirit of volunteerism, its free press as a check on power, and for its freedom of association as a counterweight to majority tyranny. He was most impressed by its practical, restless energy and work ethic, as also its cultural mores.

If Tocqueville had revisited America 150 [years later, he might have seen] majority tyranny and a strange “equality of conditions” brought about by a mass consumer culture. To this, I would add two things: first, that America in its period of ascendancy established a ‘high trust’ society as described by Francis Fukuyama in his book Social Virtues and the Creation of Prosperity; and second, that its ability to attract the best to its universities and its pathway for that talent to develop new technology and products for the world sustained its success. Vannevar Bush, in his 1945 policy recommendation to then president Harry S. Truman titled Science: The Endless Frontier, advocated federal investment in scientific research as the fund from which practical applications of knowledge must be drawn. That led directly to the creation of the National Science Foundation in 1950. This established the bedrock upon which is built a pillar of America’s great-[ness].

[In the recent] wave of globalization, it left some of its communities behind even as the world benefited. Its high-trust society was fractured in this process as described in Dan Rodger’s book, The Age of Fracture. A backlash in the context of low trust brought about its current political movement against globalization and towards putting up physical walls and technology barricades.

If Tocqueville were to assess America today, it is unlikely that he would pick up any strong signal on ‘free association’. As measured by interpersonal trust or trust in government, Fukuyama’s ‘high trust’ society no longer holds, as most recent surveys indicate. America’s incumbent president, Donald Trump, has been taking a chainsaw to research funding and has created fear even among legal migrants and students at its top universities.

The only US pillar left standing is its com-[petitiveness]. On the evidence of just these indicators, the country’s future looks cloudy. The living history of a people who form a nation, though, is subjective. To comprehend and evaluate whether they can regain their vitality, one must draw from periods of difficulty. So far, the US has shown remarkable resilience and bounced back from each. This is evident in periods such as the Great Depression of the 1930s, oil shock of the 70s, global financial crisis of 2008 and the more recent covid pandemic.

Historically, America’s greatest strength has been its ability to adapt and re-invent itself in the face of crisis. The country still possesses reservoirs of political talent and well-built institutions and mechanisms of democracy, apart from the personality traits required for a resurgence. In my view, US declinists are calling a fall prematurely. It does have deep challenges to overcome, such as societal polarization, an affordability crisis, lack of housing and healthcare for all, and excessive debt. Yet, American resilience should be able to combat them and emerge victorious.


The following is the article titled "Hotel rates soar but industry sees room for price increases" by Varuni Khosla, reproduced from the sources:

Hotel rates soar but industry sees room for price increases

Limited new supply and rising travel have pushed average room rates in India to record highs By Varuni Khosla

After several years of record-breaking room rates, India’s top hotel chains are pushing back against suggestions that they have reached their ceiling. Instead, hotel executives said the country’s premium hospitality market remains underpriced compared with global peers and is entering a phase where protecting room rates, rather than chasing occupancy, has become the dominant strategy.

“India is still significantly underpriced versus Europe, North America and many Asian luxury markets,” Vikramjit Singh Oberoi, managing director and chief executive officer (CEO) of EIH Ltd, which owns the Oberoi and Trident group of hotels, said on a recent earnings call. While luxury hotels globally now charge upwards of $1,000 (about ₹96,000) a night, India remains well below those levels, he added. Room rates at the Oberoi Hotel New Delhi hover between ₹20,000 and ₹30,000 per night, depending on the season.

After several years of strong demand, limited new supply and rising domestic travel pushed average room rates in India to record highs. Instead of discounting to fill rooms, luxury and five-star hotel operators say they are increasingly prioritizing pricing power.

The Leela’s average daily rates increased during the March quarter due to its “strong consumer pull, brand, pricing power and disciplined execution,” Anuraag Bhatnagar, CEO of the luxury hotel chain, said on the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call. “While occupancy in March took a hit due to international travel being disrupted, we continued to grow average daily rates in double digits,” he said. Bhatnagar said the company offset weaker occupancy with higher room rates, reinforcing what appears to be a broader shift across luxury hotels. He added that resilient demand, rising aspirational spending and constrained new luxury supply in the company’s key micro-markets continued to support improvements in both occupancy and pricing. At The Leela Palace New Delhi, rooms are priced from ₹39,000 to ₹55,000 this week, according to its website.

ITC Hotels reported that average daily rates (ADRs) for rooms continued to rise despite a volatile operating environment. External factors “created temporary fluctuations in demand, which briefly affected occupancy levels; however, ADRs witnessed a year-on-year growth, supported by smart revenue management and value-based offers,” the company said in its annual report for fiscal year 2026 (FY26). ADRs rose 6% during the year, while occupancy expanded by 229 basis points, resulting in a 10% increase in revenue per available room (RevPAR). ITC Hotels also maintained a RevPAR premium of 37% over the industry average.

Nikhil Sharma, managing director and chief operating officer, South Asia, Radisson Hotel Group, said the industry had entered a more mature phase where pricing was increasingly driven by the quality of experiences. “Demand remains robust across business and leisure destinations,” he said, adding that occupancy across Radisson’s India portfolio increased by around 5% this summer from a year earlier. “Sustainable growth will be driven by differentiated experiences that guests genuinely value and are willing to pay for, rather than by occupancy or room rates alone.”

Hospitality consultant Vijay Thacker, managing director of Horwath HTL, said recent softness in rates in some markets on account of geopolitical reasons should not be interpreted as a sign that luxury pricing has peaked. “We cannot look at a short window of time for the luxury sector. You need to take a medium- to long-term perspective. For the quality of the product and service that India offers, we are underpriced,” he said.

While some luxury hotels may eventually reach optimal occupancy, pricing will increasingly become the main lever for growth. “Once occupancy reaches a certain level, then it’s a rate game,” Thacker added. Branded hotel supply is expected to rise to about 300,000 rooms by FY30 from 196,464 rooms in FY25. Developers are betting heavily on the premium end of the market, with luxury hotels accounting for about 21% of the upcoming branded room pipeline, according to hotel consultancy Hotelivate-Savills.


RATE RACE (SIDEBAR)

  • ROOM rates at the Oberoi Hotel New Delhi hover between ₹20,000 and ₹30,000 per night.
  • ITC Hotels reported that ADRs continued to rise despite a volatile operating environment.
  • INDIA’S luxury resorts remain undervalued relative to destinations overseas.
  • HOTEL stocks usually advance during economic booms, when consumption rises.

The following is the article titled "A quarter-trillion-dollar onslaught of AI bonds tests limits" by Sam Goldfarb, reproduced from the sources:

A quarter-trillion-dollar onslaught of AI bonds tests limits

Tech giants are borrowing even more than expected, weighing on bond prices. By Sam Goldfarb

Wall Street is sending a message to tech companies engaged in a historic borrowing spree to fund investments in artificial-intelligence infrastructure: for pity’s sake, please slow down.

Over the past several weeks, the investment-grade corporate bond market has struggled to absorb a combined $75 billion of bond issuance from Nvidia, SpaceX and Amazon. While Nvidia and SpaceX were able to borrow at reasonably low interest rates, their newly issued bonds quickly slumped in the secondary market, disappointing investors who often like to flip such bonds. Amazon, meanwhile, had to pay unusually steep rates by its standards to complete its debt sale, reflecting investors’ newfound caution.

For the most part, those investors say they aren’t particularly worried about the tech companies' creditworthiness. The problem instead is that they fully expect those hyperscalers to continue flooding the market with new bonds. The hyperscalers are in such a heated race for computing power that they appear prepared to issue tens of billions of dollars of bonds at any moment, regardless of market conditions and whether they might need to pay higher interest rates.

“For us, it’s all we’re talking about, and for them it’s like, ‘Oh yeah, you know, we hit the bond market,’” said Ryan Jungk, investment grade corporate sector co-head at Newfleet Asset Management. “They don’t necessarily care if they’re flooding our market”.

“Everyone wants to leave some room for the next deal,” said Travis King, head of investment-grade corporates at Voya Investment Management.

The recent weakness in hyperscaler bonds is a big deal for fund managers and investors, because investment-grade corporate bonds tend to be fairly stable. That means even modest price declines can make a major impact on a fund’s performance relative to its peers. And it isn’t clear that hyperscalers are going to change their behavior anytime soon.

Six companies that bond investors consider hyperscalers—Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Oracle, Nvidia and SpaceX—have already issued around $244 billion in bonds globally this year, up from $108 billion all of last year and $17 billion in 2024.

Investors entered the year knowing that hyperscalers were going to issue a lot of bonds. The extra yield, or spread, that investors demanded to hold the companies’ existing bonds over U.S. Treasurys had already increased accordingly, and demand was relatively strong for new bond sales during the first few months of the year.

As it turns out, however, companies are spending and borrowing even more than investors had anticipated. Many investors were especially caught off guard by Nvidia’s $25 billion bond sale in June and again last week by Amazon’s issuance of the same size, fueling a jump in bond spreads across all of the hyperscalers.

The spread of Alphabet’s 10-year bonds rose 0.12 percentage point last week, while Meta’s 10-year bond spread climbed 0.16 percentage point. The average investment-grade bond spread ticked up only 0.02 percentage point.

As a first-time bond issuer, SpaceX has presented a particular challenge, with investors uncertain over how its bonds should be priced. The spread of its 10-year bonds has leapt nearly half-a-percentage point since being issued on June 23.

John Lloyd, global head of multi-sector credit at Janus Henderson, said his team has long believed that companies would spend more on AI infrastructure this year than the consensus estimate, leading them to hold fewer hyperscaler bonds than benchmark indexes. Going forward, he said, “you still have a wide range of outcomes” for how much the companies will invest in AI, with high-end estimates coming in north of $10 trillion over the next several years.

Moves in tech company bond prices are now especially important to portfolio managers, because those bonds make up an increasingly large share of benchmark bond indexes. If investors are spooked by the threat of further issuance and go “underweight” tech bonds, they could get burned if issuance is less than expected and the bonds rally. Conversely, they could get hurt if they start buying up the bonds and issuance doesn’t let up.

“If you get the tech trade wrong, that probably makes or breaks your year,” said Jungk.

If borrowing costs rise, tech giants such as Amazon, Alphabet and Meta Platforms should be able to keep spending, but they could be pushed to issue more equity instead of debt. Alphabet, for one, already announced in June that it would issue more than $80 billion in equity this year to help fund its AI investments. That, in theory, should have been good for its bonds. In reality, the boost was limited because investors read the issuance as a sign the company might spend even more on AI, requiring just as much borrowing.


The following is the article titled "BSNL revenue up 10% in Q1: Scindia", reproduced from the sources:

BSNL revenue up 10% in Q1: Scindia

State-run Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL) has provisionally posted around a 10% increase in revenue from operations in the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, telecom minister Jyotiraditya Scindia said on Monday.

While speaking to the media after the review meeting of BSNL for the first quarter of the current fiscal, Scindia said that BSNL’s enterprise business segment and consumer mobility have shown growth, while the consumer fixed access segment has remained almost flat.

“Last year, we closed first quarter (Q1) at ₹4,017 crore. This year, we have closed Q1 at ₹4,418 crore. So there’s a delta of ₹401 crore, an increase,” Scindia said.


The following is the article titled "DMart faces a quick comm test" by Ananya Roy, reproduced from the sources:

DMart faces a quick comm test

By Ananya Roy

Avenue Supermarts, which owns and operates supermarket chain DMart, is struggling against cut-throat competition from quick commerce in metros. Standalone revenue rose 15.1% year-on-year to ₹18,340 crore in the June quarter (Q1FY27), and Ebitda rose 16.3% to ₹1,527 crore.

The Ebitda margin expanded by only 10 basis points (bps) to 8.3% despite a 50-bps expansion in the gross margin. An improved mix with a higher share of margin-accretive general merchandise and apparel category buoyed the gross margin. Higher staff costs to support FY26’s back-ended store-addition contained operating margin expansion. That, along with higher depreciation and interest costs, led to a slower 12.8% growth in net profit to ₹936 crore.

Overall, growth is stalling as mature stores—those operating for two years or more—in metros become less productive. Of the 85 stores added in FY26, 58 came up in Q4. This slowed to just three stores in Q1, taking the total store count to 503. But the store footprint was 19% higher year-on-year and drove growth even as like-for-like (LFL) growth in mature stores slowed to 5.5% in Q1 from 10.8% in Q4. Bills cut—the number of daily invoices generated—rose 13.4% year-on-year to ₹11 crore due to new stores added in Q4. Store productivity, as measured by bills cut per store, fell about 5%.

Elara Securities believes quick commerce has weakened DMart’s historical pricing moat in metros. Blinkit, Zepto and Swiggy Instamart have been joined by Amazon and Flipkart in the quick commerce race. Sure, DMart also offers same-day delivery of online grocery orders. But the difference between consolidated and standalone results, which proxy DMart Ready’s performance, shows that growth has slowed to just 5.5% from a 20% growth profile earlier, Nuvama Research noted. It added that losses have widened to ₹75 crore in Q1 from ₹57/68 crore in Q1FY26/Q4.

The company has responded by cutting down its DMart Ready presence, while shifting focus towards quicker delivery. It exited seven cities during the quarter and is now present in only 11. Compared to 40% of orders currently taking over 12 hours for delivery, the management is gunning for six-hour deliveries by FY27. Breakeven is expected over the next few years.

Non-metro stores held up better. Elara estimates that metros account for about 60% of DMart’s revenue, implying encouraging 14-15% LFL growth in non-metros, while metro sales remained flat. This can be due to low quick commerce presence, along with price-sensitive customer behaviour in non-metro cities. But it leaves a significant expansion runway in non-metros for DMart, which can support growth even if quick-commerce competition continues to derail growth in metros.

Store expansion, a key growth lever, is expected to pick up pace. The board has approved raising about ₹1,000 crore through non-convertible debentures, which signals store additions in H2, says Nuvama. New stores are operating at about 55% of mature-store throughput, providing an important cushion to overall growth.

So far in CY26, the stock is up about 8% and continues to trade at 61 times estimated FY28 earnings, leaving little room for disappointment. Unless metro growth stabilizes or store productivity improves meaningfully, valuations may continue to cap near-term upside.


GROWTH WOES (SIDEBAR)

  • DMART’S OVERALL growth is stalling as mature stores in metro cities become less productive.
  • IT HAS CUT DOWN its DMart Ready presence, while focusing on quicker delivery.

The following is the article titled "Meta told to remove ‘pirated’ Zee content" by Yash Tiwari and Krishna Yadav, reproduced from the sources:

Meta told to remove ‘pirated’ Zee content

By Yash Tiwari & Krishna Yadav

The Delhi high court on Monday directed global technology giant Meta Platforms to remove Facebook posts that allegedly included pirated content belonging to Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd, granting the broadcaster immediate interim relief in its fresh copyright infringement suit against the social media company.

Justice Anup Jairam Bhambhani issued summons to Meta Platforms after hearing Zee Entertainment’s plea and directed the social media company to take down the identified Facebook URLs hosting the allegedly infringing copyrighted content.

Zee argued that several Facebook pages were illegally uploading its television programmes and clips, allowing users to watch them without permission. They also alleged that such pirated videos continued to resurface despite repeated takedown requests. Zee told the court that while Meta occasionally removed specific videos after receiving takedown notices, the remedy was ineffective as the infringing content continued to resurface on Facebook in different geographical locations.


The following is the article titled "South Africa’s anti-immigrant protests raise many questions" by Justice Malala, reproduced from the sources:

South Africa’s anti-immigrant protests raise many questions

The rise of xenophobia is a danger all of Africa needs to examine By Justice Malala

As betrayals go, South Africa turning its back on its continent is particularly brutal. Between 1960 and 1994, when South Africa’s liberation movements were banned and leaders like Nelson Mandela were imprisoned by its apartheid government, African countries established camps and schools for the diaspora and gave money and military aid to the resistance. Yet, last week, a months-long violent campaign of anti-African immigrant protests in the country by the newly minted organization March and March culminated in attacks on homes and property and the shutdown of major cities. Although these rallies did not descend into wholesale violence, shameful scenes of South Africans attacking alleged illegal foreigners and citizens they misidentified as immigrants were beamed across the globe. Organizers have vowed to protest every Thursday until local elections scheduled for 4 November.

These attacks are reprehensible, hateful, xenophobic, largely misinformed and have damaged South Africa’s reputation. The anti-migrant campaign imperils major investments on the African continent as pressure mounts from key destinations such as Nigeria for boycotts and diplomatic sanctions to be imposed. That said, tough questions need to be asked of Africa’s leaders about why millions of their citizens gamble with death to reach Europe or to wade through the crocodile-infested Limpopo River to escape Zimbabwe and reach South Africa. For too long, pointing out the faults of fellow Africans was seen as playing into the West’s post-colonial playbook. Those arguments are no longer sustainable as Africans themselves are asking these questions.

South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa said in an address to his nation that solving migration pressures requires “peace where there is conflict, economic growth where there is stagnation and opportunity where there is poverty”. Rwanda’s foreign minister Olivier Nduhungirehe said on a visit to South Africa in mid-June that any discussion on migration should focus on root causes and that poverty, conflict and limited opportunities in countries of origin must be addressed, rather than shifting the blame to destination states such as South Africa. In plain language, Africans are fleeing undemocratic and kleptocratic leaders to find succour in places where they feel they can live freely and prosper.

Take mineral-rich Zimbabwe, the home nation of by far the vast majority of illegal immigrants in South Africa. Its former President Robert Mugabe was ousted from office after 37 years; his successor since 2017, Emmerson Mnangagwa, has just changed the constitution to extend his power beyond 2030. Instead of condemning him, Ramaphosa rewarded him with a high-profile visit two months ago. The millions of Zimbabwean migrants in South Africa were not mentioned. So even as South Africa drives out unregistered Zimbabweans—60,000 were deported just last week—many more will continue to come because their home country is politically and economically intolerable.

In Uganda, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the army chief and son of President Yoweri Museveni (41 years in office), has just shut down the country’s main independent media group’s television station and newspaper. Two weeks ago, Kainerugaba kidnapped an opposition leader and posted pictures on X of the man begging for mercy while being tortured. It will not get better anytime soon unless something changes. According to US nonprofit Freedom House, nine countries have slid into dictatorship from democracy in Africa since 2019. Many of these are blessed with abundant mineral wealth—but only politically connected elites benefit.

It is convenient for the privileged to blame colonialism for Africa’s migration crisis. There is some truth to that, of course; but look at South Africa’s western neighbour, Botswana. It experienced 30 years of annual economic expansion surpassing 7% due to the astute management of its diamond wealth and its fidelity to democratic leadership. Botswana’s people do not flee; leadership matters.

What is to be done?. Ironically, African leaders have shown the way. Through the Lome Agreements of 2000, African Union (AU) leaders agreed to hold each other accountable and even boot out anti-democratic actors and kleptocrats among them. Major state wars in Africa declined to just four in 2010 from 12 in 2000. African leaders have now thrown their admirable handiwork aside. The AU has reverted to the bad ways of its predecessor, the Organisation of African Unity, which was notorious for tolerating dictators. If a few good leaders can rejuvenate the AU and reinforce the spine of the Lome agreement, then there is hope.


The following is the article titled "Has El Niño spared the monsoon? Not exactly" from the "Our View" section, reproduced from the sources:

Has El Niño spared the monsoon? Not exactly

Rainfall coverage is still of enormous importance to Indian well-being. While initial fears of an El Niño dry-up this year might have begun to evaporate, it’s too early to relax our guard

Nearly six weeks after the South-west monsoon that accounts for about 75% of India’s total rainfall arrived in Kerala, it is time to take stock of this age-old determinant of economic outcomes, especially in the country’s rural hinterland. The sectoral composition of India’s economy has transformed over the years, with agriculture now making up only about 18% of gross value added, but this reduction in share has not been matched by a corresponding decline in the numbers who depend on farming. As estimated, the farm sector supports almost 43% of India’s workforce today. No wonder the annual monsoon’s progress holds us in thrall year after year.

The good news is that our worst fears about 2026 being an El Niño year—when a pronounced tilt in warm equatorial waters from the Pacific Ocean’s western side to its eastern tends to give India a harsh summer and weak monsoon—have not been realized. Some of the initial deficit in rainfall has been made up over the past week or so. The bad news is that although rains have now covered the entire country, its progress has been far from uniform. According to the India Meteorological Department, rainfall is likely to be ‘subdued’ over large parts of the landmass over the next six-seven days. Region-wise, east and northeast India are the worst off, recording a deficit of 37% due to weak rains in Bihar, Jharkhand and five states of the Northeast. Also, total precipitation is not all that counts. The spatial and temporal spread of rainfall is highly relevant to agriculture. And here, the harsh reality is that only about half our arable land is irrigated, leaving vast tracts reliant on seasonal rains.

Worse, irrigation facilities are largely concentrated in the relatively rich north-western part of India and some coastal states, which means poorer states suffer more from scanty rains. The impact of this year’s erratic rainfall, critical for the kharif season crop, is already visible in sowing data. The latest update, dated 6 July, shows that sowing is 21% lower than last year, with the shortfall higher in the case of pulses and oilseeds, both of which already stand out for high import dependency. Cereal supplies are less of a problem. As reported, stocks of wheat and rice in the central pool are nearly four times the prescribed buffer norm. This offers a cushion against any scarcity-led price pressures. But as Indian diets move away from an overdose of cereals towards more pulses and other protein-rich foods, a poor domestic harvest of pulses may have a disproportionate effect on people’s cost of living. Add to that a revival of uncertainty over oil supplies via the Strait of Hormuz, and general price volatility is hard to escape. Retail inflation was almost 4.4% last month, with food inflation not just higher, but looking up.

In such a scenario, the government bears the onus to relieve a potential rise in distress. Employment can make a difference. The Viksit Bharat-Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission Gramin, which promises rural jobs, went into effect on 1 July. But several fiscally stretched state governments are reportedly reluctant to let it soak up funds, since the scheme is not fully funded by the Centre and they can suspend it during harvest season. This tangle may need to be resolved swiftly. At midway point, the monsoon hasn’t suffered much of an El Niño dry-out, but it’s too early to relax our guard.


The following is the article titled "IT Act 2025 tidies up presumptive tax—with a catch" by Gautam Nayak, reproduced from the sources:

IT Act 2025 tidies up presumptive tax—with a catch

A drafting tweak may have unintended tax consequences for presumptive taxpayers By Gautam Nayak

The new Income Tax Act, 2025, which replaces the Income Tax Act, 1961, has become applicable from 1 April 2025. According to the government, there have been no policy changes—only simplification of the language and rationalization of the structure of the provisions. One area where this exercise is evident is presumptive taxation.

Three schemes combined The 1961 Act had three separate presumptive taxation schemes—one for small businesses (6% or 8% of turnover, with turnover limits of ₹2 crore/₹3 crore), one for low-income professionals (50% of gross receipts, with receipt limits of ₹50 lakh/₹75 lakh), and one for transport operators of commercial goods vehicles (presumptive income based on vehicle capacity, subject to a limit of 10 goods transport vehicles).

All three have now been consolidated into a single section under the 2025 Act and will apply from the tax year 2026-27, for which income tax returns will be filed next year. The new provision contains a table setting out the type of business or profession, conditions for eligibility, limits of total turnover or gross receipts, and the manner of computation of presumptive income. The eligibility conditions, turnover limits and method of computing presumptive income remain unchanged from the 1961 Act for all three categories.

Higher income clarified The earlier law left room for confusion over whether taxpayers whose actual income exceeded the presumptive income could still offer only the presumptive income to tax. While many assumed they could, the wording suggested that the higher of the actual or presumptive income had to be offered to tax.

Under the 2025 Act, this has been made explicit and unambiguous. The computation table specifies both the presumptive income and the profit claimed to have actually been earned, and clearly provides that the higher of the two will be treated as taxable income.

Deduction dilemma The other key change—whether intended or unintended—relates to the applicability of deductions. Under the 1961 Act, once presumptive income was taxed, all deductions under the head "Profits and Gains of Business or Profession" were deemed to have been allowed, and no further deduction under those provisions, such as depreciation, could be claimed.

The 2025 Act, however, states that any loss, allowance or deduction under the provisions of the Act shall not be allowed against the presumptive income. This is broader than the earlier restriction, as it applies to all losses, allowances and deductions, and not merely those relating to the computation of business income. Of course, if the taxpayer opts for the new tax regime, deductions for investments and losses from self-occupied house property are in any case not available. However, there are other items that may still affect taxpayers, even under the new regime.

To illustrate, a taxpayer may have a loss from another business (which does not fall under the presumptive taxation provisions), a loss from house property on account of interest paid on a housing loan for a let-out property (up to the permissible limit), or a loss under the head "Income from Other Sources" arising from interest paid on borrowings used to invest in debt instruments. Under the earlier law, such losses could generally be set off against presumptive business income under the head "Profits and Gains of Business or Profession". Under the 2025 Act, such setoffs may no longer be available. Of course, these losses can still be set off against other eligible income, wherever permitted under the Act.

A substantive change? This is a significant and substantive change, and not merely a drafting simplification. One does not know whether this is a drafting error or an intended policy change, particularly given the government's repeated assertion that the 2025 Act was not meant to introduce substantive policy changes.

If this is indeed an unintended drafting mistake, the law may need to be amended, which would likely happen only during the next Budget. Therefore, taxpayers should carefully review the new provisions while computing their income for the tax year 2026-27, remaining alert to changes in the law that may appear minor on the surface but could materially affect the computation of taxable income.


Gautam Nayak is a partner at CNK & Associates LLP.

Sunday, July 12, 2026

Newspaper Summary 130726

 

Private investment in solar module manufacturing firms on the rise

BIG LEAP. Policy support, strong domestic demand have brought sector on their radar

Rohan Das Chennai

Solar module makers in India are seeing a surge in interest of private market investors as they scale their manufacturing presence and move into upstream components like cells, wafers and ingots.

According to data from market research firm Tracxn, over the last five years, private investments in module manufacturing companies have gone up nearly tenfold. In 2026 (YTD), these companies raised about $460 million in equity funding, while in 2025, the figure was around $322.5 million. This is a significant spike compared to $29.3 million in 2023.

JSW Solar’s ₹1,422 crore raise from Havells and other private investors, Grew Solar bagging ₹1,050 crore from Bay Capital Investment Ltd, alongside institutional investors, and ReNew Photovoltaics’ $700 million raise from the development financial institution, International Investment Services were some of the marquee deals over this period. The share of each investor could not be ascertained as Tracxn tracks value of the entire round.

Speaking to businessline, investors said that in the past, the majority of capital came from strategic investors. However, policy support, alongside strong domestic demand, had brought the sector into venture capital and equity firm focus.

RISE IN CAPACITY

Ankit Jain, Vice-President, Co-group Head – Corporate Ratings, ICRA, suggested that India’s module manufacturing capacity reached more than 200 GW as of June 2026, a sharp rise from 67.3 GW as of February 2025. “On the demand side, there has been sizeable capacity addition with schemes such as PM Kusum and PM Surya Ghar supporting module demand, while policies like ALMM, PLI and imposition of customs duty have enabled manufacturers to scale up capacity,” he said.

Vineet Bhatia, Partner – Energy & Infrastructure, Thornton Bharat, suggested that module manufacturing had evolved from being a commodity business to becoming a strategic growth opportunity. “Historically, low margins, high import dependency and technology shifting up operations kept venture capital and private equity interest in solar manufacturing low, and the sector was mainly driven by strategic investors whose focus was more integration than return. However, nonetheless, the outlook is drastically changing now,” he said.

Industry policy signals from the Centre on mandatory domestic content coupled with large-scale investments, he added. Companies are planning a phase-wise capital investment in the industry, beginning with cells in the near term, wafers and ingots in the medium term, and eventually extending to the broader ecosystem,” Bhatia said.

Vipul Kumar, Managing Director and Head of India, South Asia-Energy Investment, said, “Building global competitive manufacturing capacity requires patient capital and an enabling ecosystem; it cannot be assessed through the lens of short-term returns alone. Our focus is on backing teams with deep domain fundamentals, sound governance, and a vision to remain competitive over the long term”.


Centre says no communication with TN on Parandur airport

Our Bureau Chennai

The Union Civil Aviation Ministry has not received any intimation from the newly elected Tamil Nadu Government, led by the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), on whether it wants to proceed with the proposed ₹27,000 crore greenfield airport at Parandur or put it on hold, according to highly placed sources.

Sources in the Ministry told businessline that the State government is yet to inform the Centre about its plans for the second airport. “We are not aware whether they are dropping the project or proceeding with it. We have already issued the approval for the land,” Ministry sources said. The ball is now in the State’s court, and any decision on the project now rests with the State government, the source added.

The clarification comes following widespread speculation over the fate of the proposed airport after the formation of the TVK government. Statements by senior Ministers in the TVK Cabinet on environmental concerns regarding several infrastructure development projects have triggered a debate on whether Parandur should be shelved and an alternative site identified.

Meanwhile, businessline has learnt that a delegation of senior Tamil Nadu government officials is scheduled to visit New Delhi on Monday to hold discussions with central government officials on various projects supported by agencies such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). It is not known whether the Parandur airport project will be part of the discussions.

PROJECT REVIEWED

Chief Minister C Joseph Vijay, soon after assuming office, had backed villagers and farmers opposing the project over concerns regarding loss of livelihood and environmental impact. At the same time, there has been speculation that he has reviewed the project, although no details have emerged. Senior State government officials have denied that any such discussions have taken place.

A notification issued by the previous DMK government declared the Parandur New Greenfield Airport Project a “Special Project” under the Tamil Nadu Land Consolidation (Special Projects) Act, 2023. The notification was issued on March 2, days before the Model Code of Conduct came into force. However, State cabinet sources said there is no legal bar on the part of the new administration from discontinuing the project despite its Special Project status.

Industry representatives have warned that scrapping the airport would be a setback for Chennai, arguing that the city has already lost passenger and cargo traffic to neighbouring Hyderabad and Bengaluru, and that a second airport would help arrest that trend.


Retail inflation likely breached 4% mark in June

Shishir Sinha New Delhi

Driven by surging food costs and the waning of the base effect of global fuel hikes, retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to have crossed the 4 per cent mark in June after a 16-month hiatus.

While the 4 per cent is the Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) target, it is yet to hold policy rates steady due to its “withdrawal of accommodation” stance.

Under the new 2024 base series, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation had dropped from 2.74 per cent in January 2016 to 3.93 per cent in May 2024. It has remained persistently in the last month alone. CPI-based inflation had touched 3.9 per cent in May.

In its recent monetary policy review, the Finance Ministry’s latest Monthly Economic Review noted that the ongoing West Asia crisis and subsequent global shocks were keeping domestic inflationary pressures on an upward trajectory as energy costs diffuse through the economy.

GROWTH RISKS

Further, it said that while easing oil prices and improving global supply chains in the long run could help alleviate some external pressure, the uncertainty surrounding the monsoon and geopolitical tensions in West Asia continue to pose downside risks to growth and upside risks to the inflation outlook.

The MPC has projected retail inflation for the April-June quarter at 4.9 per cent.

According to Jahnavi Prabhakar, Economist at Bank of Baroda, BoE Estimates, CPI-based inflation in June is seen at its sharpest pace since early 2024. “June CPI is expected to hover around 4.5-4.6 per cent, on y-o-y basis. In July 2026, the build-up is even higher (first 6 days) at 2.1 per cent,” as national food prices continue to remain high.

Given the recent developments around the pick up in the South-West monsoon, kharif acreage and reservoir level, careful monitoring of the spatial distribution of rain as well as of El Nino conditions is needed in the coming days.

TILTED UPSIDE

The overall reservoir storage position as on July 2 is at a lower level as the normal storage for the corresponding period. “Against this backdrop, we expect CPI to settle at 4.2 per cent in June 2026, with risks tilted to the upside,” she said.

Radhika Rao, Senior Economist, DBS Bank also expects the headline number to cross the 4 per cent mark. “June CPI inflation is expected to have picked up marginally to 4.1 per cent y-o-y from 3.9 per cent the month before, on continued normalisation in food segments and pass-through of telecom hikes and the related segments,” she said while adding that beyond food and fuel, upside risks to core inflation appear limited, amid softer gold and precious metal prices and little scope for further pump-price adjustments.


Wayfaring through life

Uncertainty requires a deliberate way of thinking

BOOK REVIEW Srinivas Sastry

Strategy is usually associated with organisations. We talk about strategy for businesses, products, markets and careers. Yet one of the more interesting questions Surya Ramkumar asks in her book Strategy for Life is this: If strategy is valuable enough to guide complex organisations, then why do so many people leave their own lives to chance?

The question becomes particularly relevant at a time when traditional markers of success are becoming increasingly fluid. Career paths are no longer linear, and social norms are constantly being redefined. Many individuals succeed through planning. Rather, they are uncertain about what comes next. This is the gap the book attempts to address.

Drawing on her experiences across leadership roles at McKinsey and Microsoft, Ramkumar approaches life not as a sequence of events but as a strategic challenge. Her argument is not that life can be controlled through planning. Rather, it is that uncertainty itself demands a more deliberate way of thinking.

NAVIGATING VS WAYFARING

One idea that recurs throughout the book is the distinction between navigation and wayfaring. Navigation assumes a known destination and a predefined route. Wayfaring describes a changing landscape where progress depends less on following a map and more on continuously interpreting the surroundings. This distinction captures the reality of modern leadership.

Organisations and individuals alike operate in environments where yesterday’s assumptions rarely remain valid for long. The landscape is in constant flux. In such environments, strategy becomes less about prediction and more about preparedness.

This perspective runs through many of the frameworks presented in the book. Whether discussing strategy tools like the Problem Priority Index, the Strategy House or the Red Thread, Ramkumar repeatedly returns to the central theme: making conscious choices about what deserves attention and what does not.

What I found particularly interesting was the discussion on prioritization. Many professionals spend considerable energy optimising activities without questioning whether those activities deserve optimisation in the first place.

The book argues that clarity often comes not from doing more things well, but from identifying the one problem whose resolution changes everything else.

This mirrors an observation frequently seen in organisations. High-performing companies are not necessarily those with the most initiatives. They are often the ones with the clearest understanding of where focus should be applied. The same principle appears to hold true at an individual level.

Another theme that stands out is the relationship between aspiration and influence.

In professional life, people often inherit goals from peers, institutions, industries or social expectations without realising it. Ramkumar’s discussion around desires, goals and influences prompts readers to ask an important question: how many of our ambitions are genuinely ours, and how many have simply been absorbed from the environment around us?

The question is particularly relevant in an age where comparison has become continuous and highly visible. Where the book is strongest, however, is not in its frameworks. It is in the conversations those frameworks provoke.

Questions such as “What problem is truly worth solving?”, “What is enough?”, and “Whose definition of success am I pursuing?” stay with the reader long after the individual models have faded from memory.


Book Details:

  • Title: Strategy for Life
  • Author: Surya Ramkumar
  • Publisher: Penguin Random House
  • Price: ₹399

The reviewer is a certified leadership coach and writes on human-centric leadership models.


Understanding the rise of ‘agentic commerce’

Short take Sita Mishra

The biggest question in online shopping may not be what consumers buy but who makes the purchase decision. As artificial intelligence evolves from offering recommendations to acting as autonomous users, consumers may increasingly delegate searching, comparing, evaluating, and even purchasing to intelligent agents. This emerging transformation is known as agentic commerce.

Imagine asking an AI assistant to compare smartphones within a budget, analyze reviews, track prices, and complete the purchase automatically. Or allowing AI to reorder household essentials whenever better deals appear. Rather than replacing consumers entirely, agentic commerce changes how decisions are made by reducing effort and cognitive load.

Consumers today operate in an environment of information overload and endless choice. Comparing alternatives across platforms often creates decision fatigue and slow purchase decisions. Agentic commerce promises convenience by delegating non-essential portions of the consumer decision-making process. AI agents can personalize recommendations, compare alternatives in real time, and optimize outcomes based on consumer preferences and constraints. From a consumer behavior perspective, this reflects bounded rationality, where consumers seek satisfactory rather than perfectly informed decisions.

FERTILE GROUND

India presents a fertile ground for agentic commerce because consumers are increasingly comfortable with digital payments, online marketplaces, and technology-enabled services. At the same time, Indian consumers remain highly value-conscious and promotion-sensitive. AI agents could strengthen this value-seeking behavior by enabling faster price comparisons and reducing information asymmetry between buyers and sellers. However, adoption may vary across categories. High-involvement purchases such as travel, fashion, and premium products may continue to involve greater consumer participation because these decisions carry emotional and symbolic value.

THE CHALLENGE OF TRUST

Trust may become the defining challenge. Consumers may question whether AI agents truly represent their interests or are influenced by platform incentives and commercial partnerships. This concern connects to perceived manipulation, algorithmic transparency, and consumer autonomy. Marketing research has long shown that consumers value perceived control during decision-making.

Excessive automation may weaken this feeling and create resistance, even when outcomes are superior. Agentic commerce also introduces trust transfer, where confidence must extend not only to brands but also to the AI intermediary making recommendations. If AI makes a poor purchase decision, who is accountable? If algorithms become marketplace gatekeepers, how will brands earn visibility? These questions are important.


The writer is Professor (Marketing), IMT Ghaziabad


ZincGel vs Li-ion battery

M Ramesh Chennai

Recently, Offgrid Energy Labs, an Indian startup incubated at IIT-Kanpur, announced it is planning a 10 MWh pilot manufacturing facility in the UK to produce battery cells based on its proprietary ZincGel technology.

The company intends the UK plant to be a proving ground; the experience gained there, it says, will be used to establish large-scale manufacturing in India, where battery demand is expected to rise sharply as renewable energy capacity expands.

Unlike lithium-ion batteries, which rely on imported lithium, ZincGel uses zinc and graphite, both of which are abundantly available in India. The ZincGel technology differs in many other ways too. The basic zinc-bromine chemistry is nothing new, but it has not come into common use because of some key problems, mainly dendrite formation and hydrogen evolution reaction (HER).

Dendrites are tiny metallic needles that emerge during repeated charging; they can pierce the separator and short-circuit the cell. Hydrogen affects the cell’s efficiency by wasting a part of the charging energy and increasing internal pressure.

Offgrid Energy Labs says the key lies in its proprietary electrolyte, which makes its anode-less architecture possible. The anode-less architecture, where the anode is formed inside the cell during charging and disappears during discharging, is something that researchers have been toying with for a while. It is a mouthwatering idea because it saves the anode material completely.

PROPRIETARY TECH

Offgrid Energy Labs says it has cracked the technology. Instead of using a zinc metal anode from the outset, the battery starts with a bare current collector. During charging, zinc from the electrolyte is deposited onto this collector and dissolves back into the electrolyte during discharge. This reduces material use and simplifies cell construction.

The startup’s proprietary gel-based aqueous electrolyte, containing zinc bromide, additional zinc salts, and specialised additives, prevents dendrite formation. Specialised additives act as leveling agents and grain refiners, ensuring that zinc deposits as a dense, uniform layer instead of growing into needle-like dendrites.

The electrolyte is also designed to suppress hydrogen evolution. According to the company, proprietary additives bind free water molecules and reduce the unwanted side reactions that produce hydrogen gas. At the positive electrode, activated carbon derived from coconut shells is used to trap bromine within its microscopic pores, thereby reducing bromine migration and improving both safety and cycle life.

ELECTROLYTE’S ROLE

Offgrid Energy Lab’s technology flags a significant trend in the evolution of electrochemical cell design. The electrolyte functions far from a passive medium through which ions pass from one electrode to the other. But the emerging approach—as evident in Offgrid Energy’s cell—is to expand the role of the electrolyte.

In ZincGel, the proprietary electrolyte is an active participant that performs many functions, such as suppressing dendrites and hydrogen evolution, and stabilizing bromine. The startup, which raised $15 million from Archean Chemical Industries last year, has combined ternary techniques (gel electrolytes, additives, bromine-trapping carbon materials and anode-free architecture) to make a unique battery.

It says its system can deliver more than 6,000 charge-discharge cycles with round-trip efficiencies of 80-90 per cent.

Offgrid Energy is careful not to position ZincGel as a replacement for lithium-ion batteries, but as complementary in applications that require long-duration energy storage rather than high energy density. While lithium-ion remains the preferred choice for electric vehicles and portable electronics, Offgrid Energy says zinc-bromine batteries offer advantages for grid balancing, renewable energy integration and industrial backup, where batteries are expected to discharge over 6-12 hours, operate safely over long periods and deliver thousands of charge-discharge cycles.


IIT-M revives forgotten route to industrial wastewater treatment

Researchers overcome long-standing bottleneck in technology based on gas hydrates

Team Quantum

For decades, scientists have known that gas hydrates—ice-like crystals formed when water traps certain gases under specific temperature and pressure conditions—could, in principle, purify contaminated water.

The idea was always attractive. Water locks itself into crystals while salts and other impurities are left behind. But there was a catch. Separating the crystals from the remaining wastewater proved cumbersome and energy-intensive, preventing the technology from competing with membrane-based systems, such as reverse osmosis (RO).

Researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology, Madras, now say they have overcome that bottleneck. The team has developed and patented a gas hydrate-based process that forms hydrate crystals directly in the gaseous phase, eliminating the need for filtration or centrifugation to separate them from wastewater.

In tests using actual petrochemical effluent supplied by CPCL (India) Ltd, the system recovered more than 65 per cent of the water, removed 84.93 per cent of contaminants, and recycled over 95 per cent of the hydrate-forming gases back into the process.

AN ALTERNATIVE TO RO

Developed by Dr Subhash Kumar Sharma under the supervision of Prof Rajnish Kumar, the process offers an alternative to RO. (RO) membranes are prone to fouling, require periodic replacement and generate solid waste. Hydrate processes avoid membranes but consume significantly more energy.

A mixture of propane and HFC-134a is introduced into the contaminated wastewater under carefully controlled temperature and pressure. Water molecules assemble around the gas molecules, forming solid hydrate crystals while salts, ammonia, suspended solids and organic contaminants remain in the liquid.

The crystals are then gently melted to recover purified water, while the gases are captured and reused in the next cycle.

The technology consumed 3.88 kWh of electricity for every cubic metre of water recovered—comparable to seawater reverse osmosis and substantially better than net desalination methods. The researchers estimate a levelised water cost of about 14 paise a litre and claim a carbon footprint 35-70 per cent lower than that of conventional membrane and heat-based technologies. The treated water met the Central Pollution Control Board standards for industrial reuse.

Kumar said the process could help industries reduce freshwater consumption while meeting increasingly stringent zero liquid discharge requirements.

The technology is at readiness level 4, indicating it has passed second laboratory proof-of-concept. The team plans pilot-scale demonstrations using wastewater from the pharmaceutical, textile and fertilizer industries.



Tamil Nadu Online Gambling and Gaming Ordinance 2022 Brief

 The following is the full text of the state legislative brief regarding The Tamil Nadu Prohibition of Online Gambling and Regulation of Online Games Ordinance, 2022, as prepared by PRS Legislative Research on October 17, 2022.

Key Features

  • The Ordinance prohibits online gambling and online games of chance played for money or other stakes, specifically including Rummy and Poker.
  • It establishes the Tamil Nadu Online Gaming Authority to regulate providers, identify games of chance, and recommend their inclusion in the schedule of prohibited games.
  • Non-local game providers (based outside Tamil Nadu) must follow specific due diligence or restrict access for people within the state.

Key Issues and Analysis

  • Banning Games of Skill: Some criteria for prohibiting games of chance may inadvertently ban online games of skill. Notably, the Ordinance bans Rummy and Poker, which the Supreme Court has previously recognized as games of skill.
  • Fundamental Rights: The Authority’s power to impose time and monetary restrictions on adults playing online games may violate the right to freedom of expression and the right to life.
  • Jurisdiction and Consistency: The state may lack the jurisdiction to regulate providers based outside Tamil Nadu serving customers outside the state. Additionally, the Ordinance regulates certain games differently when played online versus physically.

PART A: HIGHLIGHTS OF THE ORDINANCE

Context

In 2021, Tamil Nadu attempted to prohibit all games played for stakes through an amendment to its 1930 Gaming and Police Laws Act, aiming to prevent addiction and suicides. However, the Madras High Court struck this down as arbitrary and excessive. This 2022 Ordinance was subsequently promulgated on October 3, 2022, following recommendations from a committee chaired by Retd. Justice K. Chandru.

Key Provisions

  • Prohibition of Online Gambling: Defined as wagering or betting on online games of chance for money or "other stakes," which includes virtual credits, tokens, or objects purchased in-game.
  • Definition of Online Games of Chance: These are games where (i) chance dominates skill, (ii) they are presented as games of chance, (iii) chance can only be removed by superlative skill, or (iv) they use random event generators (cards, dice, wheels).
  • Tamil Nadu Gaming Authority: This body issues certificates to local providers, sets time/monetary/age limits, and maintains data on gaming activities.
  • Non-Local Providers: Providers outside the state must exercise due diligence, such as entering contracts with customers to ensure they aren't in Tamil Nadu and collecting personal details to establish physical presence.
  • Penalties: Players of prohibited games face up to three months in prison or a fine of ₹5,000. Providers of such games face up to three years in prison or a ₹10 lakh fine.

PART B: KEY ISSUES AND ANALYSIS

The Ordinance May be Banning Online Games of Skill

The criteria used to define "games of chance" are broad. For instance, requiring random event generators to simulate shuffling cards or throwing dice means almost any online card or dice game—including skill-based games like Bridge—could be classified as a game of chance. Furthermore, the requirement of "superlative skill" to eliminate chance sets a higher bar than the Supreme Court's standard of a "substantial degree or preponderance of skill".

Conflict with Judicial Precedents

The Ordinance explicitly bans Rummy and Poker, yet the Supreme Court (1967) and various High Courts have determined these are games of skill. Courts have noted that tasks like memorizing the fall of cards in Rummy require significant skill.

Restrictions on Fundamental Rights and Privacy

By allowing the Authority to dictate how much time and money an adult can spend on online games, the Ordinance may infringe upon Article 19(1)(a) (freedom of expression) and Article 21 (right to life). There is also a concern regarding privacy, as the state would need to monitor individual usage to enforce these limits.

Differentiation Between Online and Physical Play

The Ordinance requires registration for online game providers but not for those providing the same services physically. For example, a newspaper's online crossword would require registration, while the print version would not, despite the Madras High Court noting that skills for board and card games remain the same regardless of the medium.

Jurisdictional Challenges

The Ordinance requires non-local providers to follow due diligence even for customers based outside the state if they don't use geo-blocking to restrict access to Tamil Nadu. Under Supreme Court precedents (1957), a state law must have a real and not illusory territorial connection to the person being legislated upon; the Ordinance may fail this test for providers and customers with no connection to Tamil Nadu.


Annexure: Inter-state Comparison

StateProvisionStatus
Tamil Nadu (2022)Prohibits online gambling and games of chance (inc. Rummy/Poker).Ordinance in force.
Karnataka (2021)Prohibited wagering/betting in any game of chance or skill.Struck down by High Court.
Meghalaya (2021)Permits games of skill/chance with a license.In force.
Andhra Pradesh (2020)Prohibits online gaming, betting, and wagering.Challenge pending.
Nagaland (2015)Permits wagering on games of skill (e.g., Poker) with a license.In force.
Sikkim (2008)Permits games of chance/skill with a license.In force.

Disclaimer: This brief is for informational purposes by PRS Legislative Research, an independent, not-for-profit group. The opinions expressed are those of the authors.

Legislative Brief: Karnataka Gig Workers Welfare Bill 2025

 The following is the full text of the State Legislative Brief on The Karnataka Platform based Gig Workers (Social Security and Welfare) Bill, 2025, published by PRS Legislative Research on August 13, 2025.

Overview of Key Features

  • Registration: Gig workers sourcing work via platforms will receive a unique ID. A Welfare Board will oversee the registration of both workers and aggregators, while also creating and monitoring social security schemes.
  • Welfare Fund: A Social Security and Welfare Fund will be established, funded by aggregators, gig workers, and both central and state governments.
  • Transparency: Aggregators are required to inform workers about work parameters and the impact of automated monitoring and decision-making systems on their working conditions.

Key Issues and Analysis

  • Definition: The Bill’s definition of gig work is based primarily on the manner of obtaining work rather than conceptual features, which may lead to the misclassification of traditional employees as gig workers.
  • Financing: There is an ongoing debate regarding who should bear the primary cost of social security—aggregators, workers, or the government.
  • Business Models: Determining welfare fees as a percentage of payout may result in uneven treatment of similar services depending on an aggregator’s specific business model.

PART A: HIGHLIGHTS OF THE BILL

Context

The gig economy in India is growing rapidly. NITI Aayog estimated that in 2020-21, 77 lakh workers (1.5% of the workforce) were engaged in gig work, a number expected to rise to 2.35 crore (4.1%) by 2029-30. While the central Code on Social Security, 2020 provides for such workers, it is not yet in effect. Consequently, states like Rajasthan and Bihar have passed their own laws, while others like Telangana and Jharkhand have invited public consultation. Karnataka initially promulgated an Ordinance in May 2025 and released Draft Rules in July 2025 before introducing this Bill in the Legislative Assembly on August 12, 2025.

Key Features

  • Gig Worker: Defined as someone in a contractual, piece-rate arrangement through a platform for a given rate of payment. They must be electronically registered by the Board within 30 days of onboarding.
  • Aggregator: Defined as a digital intermediary connecting buyers and sellers. Aggregators must register with the Board within 45 days of the Act’s commencement and provide data on registered workers.
  • Transparency: Contracts must be transparent, including terms for payments, deductions, and incentives. Workers must have the explicit right to refuse tasks.
  • Grievance Redressal: Workers can file grievances against aggregators or the Board. Payout or termination disputes go first to the aggregator’s Internal Dispute Resolution Committee; if unresolved in 14 days, the Board makes a final decision.
  • Gig Workers Welfare Fee: A fee between 1% to 5% of the payout per transaction will be collected from aggregators.
  • Welfare Fund: This fund will consist of welfare fees, worker contributions, government grants, and donations. Administrative costs are capped at 5% of the fund.
  • Welfare Board: Chaired by the state Labour Minister, the Board includes government secretaries, a CEO, and representatives from gig workers (4), aggregators (4), and civil society (2).
  • Penalties: Failure to pay the welfare fee incurs 12% annual interest. General contraventions carry fines ranging from Rs 5,000 to one lakh rupees.

PART B: KEY ISSUES AND ANALYSIS

Defining Gig Work

A major challenge is that gig work blurs the lines between employment and self-employment. The Bill defines gig work based on how it is sourced (through a platform) rather than the nature of the relationship (lack of mutual obligation or degree of control).

Table 1: Comparison of Work Forms

ParameterEmployer-EmployeeContract LabourFreelanceGig Work
EngagementWritten, permanent contract.Via agency/contractor.Direct, referrals, or online.Via platform/aggregator.
FlexibilityNone.Limited.High (clients, pay, hours).Choice of hours/location; platform constraints.
ControlDirect control.Supervisory (employer); Ultimate (contractor).Minimal.Ratings, pricing, location tracking.
IncomeRemuneration; no competitors.Multiple (if part-time).Multiple projects.Multiple platforms.

Judicial precedents, such as a Karnataka High Court ruling on Ola drivers and a UK Supreme Court ruling on Uber, suggest that high levels of control over fares and routes can mean workers should be classified as employees rather than independent contractors.

Platform-Only Benefits

The Bill only extends benefits if work is obtained through an online platform. This creates a distinction between workers performing identical tasks (e.g., an Uber driver vs. a traditional taxi driver) solely based on the technology used to source the job.

Financing Social Security

Financing models vary globally. In India, the Employees’ Provident Fund involves joint contributions from employers and employees. The Karnataka Bill follows a tripartite model involving aggregators, workers, and the government.

Table 3: International Financing Models

  • UK: Funded by national insurance and tax; gig workers pay specific national insurance.
  • USA: Contributions by employers, employees, and self-employed.
  • Australia: Public funds and mandatory employer "superannuation" payments if the worker meets the "employee" definition.
  • Singapore: Platforms and workers both contribute to the Central Provident Fund.

Business Model Disparities

Because the welfare fee is a percentage of the payout, business models where the customer pays the worker directly (e.g., Namma Yatri or Rapido) might result in a zero payout from the aggregator, exempting them from the fee. Conversely, platforms that handle the transaction (e.g., Uber or Ola) would be obligated to pay, leading to unequal treatment of similar services.


Comparison of State Laws

FeatureKarnataka (Bill)Rajasthan (Act)Bihar (Act)Telangana (Draft)Jharkhand (Draft)
Gig Worker Def.Via platform; pay by terms.Outside ER-EE relationship.Outside ER-EE; piece-rate.Outside traditional ER-EE.Same as Rajasthan.
Worker Reg.By Board (30 days).By aggregator (60 days).By aggregator (60 days).Self-registration.Same as Rajasthan.
TransparencyParameters/algorithm.No provision.Criteria/data/ratings.Same as Karnataka.Ratings/data/class.
Termination14-day notice.No provision.Same as Telangana.7-day notice/written.Same as Karnataka.
Welfare Fee1% to 5% of payout.% of transaction value.1% to 2% of payout.Same as Rajasthan.% of transaction value.

Karnataka Crowd Control Bill 2025 Legislative Brief

 The following is the full text of the legislative brief for The Karnataka Crowd Control (Managing Crowd at Events and Place of Gathering) Bill, 2025, as provided in the source material:


PRS LEGISLATIVE RESEARCH Jahanvi Choudhary (jahanvi@prsindia.org) October 17, 2025

State Legislative Brief: KARNATAKA

The Karnataka Crowd Control (Managing Crowd at Events and Place of Gathering) Bill, 2025

Key Features

  • The Bill requires a person to obtain permission for organising an event with a crowd of 5,000 or more attendees.
  • The specified authority will conduct an enquiry before granting permission. It will prepare a security plan for the event and fix the duties of organisers and departments such as fire safety and health.
  • Organisers are required to provide an indemnity bond of one crore rupees. They will be liable to pay compensation in cases of deaths or damage to public or private property that may happen during the event.

Key Issues and Analysis

  • The Bill requires organisers to compensate for losses due to crowd disaster or civil disturbance, and this liability arises regardless of fault. The question is whether this is appropriate.
  • The Bill exempts certain family events. The question is whether the exemption based on the purpose of the event alone is appropriate.
  • Organising an unpermitted event is punishable with imprisonment between three and seven years, a fine up to one crore rupees, or both. There is a lack of guidance on determining the punishment within this range.

PART A: HIGHLIGHTS OF THE BILL

Context

The Bill aims to provide for effective management of crowds at events and places of gathering and to prevent unlawful gathering. It was introduced in the Karnataka Legislative Assembly in August 2025 and referred to a Select Committee chaired by Dr. G. Parameshwara for scrutiny.

Between 2013 and 2023, India registered 1,272 stampede cases leading to 1,394 deaths. While Karnataka registered cases in 2013 and 2014, none were registered between 2015 and 2023 until June 2025, when a crowd rush in Bangalore led to the death of 11 persons.

Currently, multiple laws govern crowd management, including:

  • The Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita, 2023: Prohibits unlawful assembly of five or more persons.
  • The Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita, 2023: Empowers police to disperse assemblies and allows magistrates to prohibit them.
  • The Police Act, 1861 & Karnataka Police Act, 1963: Empower authorities to require licenses for public assemblies and maintain order.
  • The National Disaster Management Act, 2005: Provides guidelines (issued in 2014) highlighting issues like casual permit issuance, lack of manpower, and use of untrained security. It recommended debating the legal liability of organisers and making insurance mandatory.

Key Features

  • Permission for organising events: Permission is mandatory for events with a crowd of 5,000 or more. Applications must be submitted at least 10 days prior to the specified authority based on crowd size:
    • 5,000 to 7,000: Officer-in-charge of nearby police station.
    • 7,000 to 50,000: Deputy Superintendent of Police.
    • More than 50,000: Superintendent of Police or Commissioner of Police.
  • Role of the authority: The authority conducts an enquiry into organiser details, purpose, expected crowd, safety measures, and No Objection Certificates (NOCs) from fire safety, health, public works, and traffic police. Permission must be granted or rejected within four days. A security plan (scheme of bandobast) must be prepared.
  • Role of the organisers: Organisers must ensure smooth crowd movement and sign a one crore rupee indemnity bond. They are liable for property damage or fatalities; properties of convicted organisers may be attached to compensate victims.
  • Offences and Penalties:
    • Unpermitted events: 3 to 7 years imprisonment, a fine up to one crore rupees, or both.
    • Civil disturbance: Up to 3 years imprisonment, a fine of Rs 50,000, or both.
    • Disobeying police directions: Rs 50,000 fine and one month of community service.
    • Crowd disaster (crush/surge): 3 to 7 years imprisonment for injuries; 10 years to life imprisonment for fatalities.

PART B: KEY ISSUES AND ANALYSIS

Compensation payable by organisers

  • Regardless of fault: The Bill imposes absolute and unlimited liability on organisers for loss of life or property damage resulting from civil disturbance or crowd disaster. This applies even if they were not negligent. The brief questions if this is appropriate, especially if an incident occurs at a rented venue that was certified safe by other agencies.
  • Comparison with other laws: Laws like the Motor Vehicles Act, 1988 and Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Act, 2010 have different regimes for no-fault liability and often cap the amount or require insurance.
  • No compensation for injuries: While providing for fatalities, the Bill does not mandate compensation for injuries, unlike the Public Liability Insurance Act, 1991.

Exemptions and Definitions

  • Family events: The Bill exempts family functions like marriages held on private (including leased) premises. The brief questions if exempting events based solely on purpose is appropriate, as crowd management concerns still apply.
  • Vague terms: The terms 'family functions or events' and 'mass gathering' are not defined. This could lead to disputes, such as whether a large Ganpati puja pandal hosted by a family counts as a private family event.

Legal and Procedural Concerns

  • Wide range of punishment: There is no guidance on how a judge should determine punishment within the 3-to-7-year range for the purely factual offence of holding an unpermitted event.
  • Offences by companies: Unlike the Disaster Management Act, 2005, the Bill does not specify which individuals within a company (e.g., directors or managers) would be held liable for offences.
  • Indemnity bond: It is unclear under what specific conditions the required one crore rupee indemnity bond would be invoked.

This brief is based on the Karnataka Crowd Control Bill, 2025 and various referenced statutes and reports.

Trade, Tariffs, and Trust

 Trade, Tariffs, and Trust By David Hebert

Just over a year ago, citing the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), President Trump began unilaterally changing tariff rates with countries around the world. The goal was to restructure global trade. Since this was the first time any president had used IEEPA in this way, it was always going to invite challenges.

In May, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled against the president. In November, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments on the case. Last week, in Learning Resources v. Trump, the Court issued a 6-3 decision, making it clear that IEEPA does not give the president the power to unilaterally impose, rescind, and adjust tariffs as he sees fit. Chief Justice Roberts, who wrote the majority’s opinion, held that tariffs are fundamentally a taxing power and that, because of this, they are different in kind, not just degree, from the trade tools that IEEPA explicitly authorizes.

This opinion is certainly an important legal victory, but we should not confuse it with an economic one. The damage of tariffs has already been done and it is continuing to be done. Consider that just hours after the Court’s opinion was released, President Trump held a press conference where he said, “[Foreign countries] that have been ripping us off for years are ecstatic. They’re so happy and they’re dancing in the streets, but they won’t be dancing for long. That I can assure you”. True to his word, the president announced later that day that he was using Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a 10% global tariff on all imported goods for 150 days beginning on February 24th.

As if there were any doubt about this, the White House also posted on X, “Keep Calm and Tariff On”. Later in the weekend, the president announced that the new tariff rate would be 15%, the maximum rate allowed under Section 122. But now, as these tariffs come into effect, the rate is set at 10%, inviting further confusion. It remains unclear whether this is on top of any trade deals that have been signed or if those countries will be somehow exempted. These new tariffs are already raising serious concerns about their legality.

A 2021 survey of members of the American Economic Association found that 95% of economists agreed that tariffs are economically destructive. In other words, a group of people so famous for disagreement that the jokes practically write themselves has 95% consensus on this issue. Plenty of reputable people have asked the question of what the effective tariff rate is, who actually pays the tariffs, and how many jobs will be created or lost. This is important to the work of gathering further evidence of the destructive effects of tariffs. But the decades of empirical, historical, and theoretical work on this front fail to capture the real cost of tariffs. It won’t show up in any BLS report, BEA release, or any other economic report one can imagine.

The real cost is the destruction of trust on the world stage. Trade is not just about transactions; it’s about relationships and trust built and earned over time. This establishes that trading partners will play by agreed-upon rules and that market access is not a bargaining chip to be leveraged whenever one side, in this case Washington, needs a political victory.

Adam Smith understood this. He knew that the wealth of nations wasn’t built on clever tariff schedules or trying to hold the rest of the world hostage. It’s built on expanding the division of labor, broadening the extent of the market, and enabling man’s propensity to “truck, barter, and exchange”. All these things are made possible by stable rules and predictable networks of exchange. Smith understood that tariffs altered these incentives, but even he may have underappreciated the role of trust in international trade, how quickly it can be eroded, and what happens when it is.

Rather than breathing a sigh of relief after the Court’s ruling, the rest of the world is getting further confirmation that this administration, and by extension the United States of America, is no longer trustworthy. The first trade deals of 2026 have included deals meant to limit the damage that can be done by the turn away from trade by the United States. Canada and China announced a “trade reset,” with the Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, referring to China as “more predictable” than the United States. When China, of all places, is viewed as more predictable than the U.S., something has gone very, very wrong.

That’s not the only warning sign that we’re seeing. The EU has signed trade deals with Mercosur, which covers 31 countries, and with India. The deal with India is particularly noteworthy because it covers 25% of world GDP and over 2 billion people. This deal is so large that the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, referred to it as “the mother of all deals”.

And Prime Minister Carney, after his rousing speech in Davos, is leading the charge of “middle powers” to unite around free trade, providing other countries with an alternative to dealing with U.S. trade policy. The rest of the world is not looking to Canada and Mark Carney because they are somehow world leaders in this space, but because if Canada, one of America’s longest-standing and closest allies, says that they’ve had enough, surely other countries have had enough, too. Carney’s poll numbers show that Canadians support him, even if standing up to Trump imposes serious economic costs.

Political leaders and business executives around the world must ask themselves a new question in international trade: Is access to the largest consumer market in the world worth the cost of dealing with a partner who treats market access as a bargaining chip? Or is it better to work with smaller but more dependable markets whose leaders won’t wake up one morning and decide that they need to alter the deal?

International trade used to be about David Ricardo’s insights about comparative advantage and maximizing gains from trade. Now, it’s about Harry Markowitz’s portfolio theory, diversifying away from risk and minimizing losses in the worst case. The risk they’re hedging against is U.S. policy. While the United States is deglobalizing, the rest of the world is reglobalizing around partners who commit to the impersonal rules of an open-access liberal order.

The Court’s ruling in Learning Resources does nothing to fix this. Worse, neither will the next election. Even if America happens to elect someone who goes on a world tour promising to be a more reliable trading partner, it’s not that easy to restore trust once it’s lost. To the extent that rebuilding trust is possible, it will be a long process that starts from a worse position.

The rest of the world marches on. In boardrooms and government offices, supply chains are being rerouted. Permits to construct factories are being submitted. Long-term contracts are being signed. Investment decisions are being made today with even more uncertainty surrounding American policy, and with this uncertainty taken as a given, not the result of a short-term, recognized error.

New factories around the world aren’t going to be packed up and moved to America because the next president holds a press conference and apologizes. Supply chains being built now won’t be rerouted through the U.S. because a social media post promises that the politics in Washington have changed. Trump showed the rest of the world what is possible in the American system, and the rest of the world is responding predictably.

The word to describe this moment in American history is “hysteresis”. The idea is that something that looks like a small or temporary event, such as a temporary layoff, can have an effect that is much larger than would otherwise be predicted. Hysteresis is a term often used in economics to describe unemployment, where a worker who is originally only temporarily laid off due to a recession never returns to the labor market, or does so only in a limited capacity. Now, we have another example to use in the classroom.

The Court’s ruling in Learning Resources is a genuine victory for free trade and for constitutional limits on executive power. But it does nothing to rebuild the relationships that have already been strained. Every workaround, every legal maneuver, and every new emergency declaration will send the same message to the world: The United States can no longer be trusted. You can’t build lasting trade relationships on that foundation, and the rest of the world is learning not to try.

The Trump Administration wanted to restructure global trade. They got their wish, just not the way they imagined. The rest of the world is restructuring, too, and it’s doing so around the United States, not with it.