Based on the source material, here is the reproduction of the article detailing the impact of the US-Iran conflict on global and domestic markets.
US-Iran war: What lies ahead for oil, gold, dollar and rupee?
By Gurumurthy K, bl. research bureau
The US attacking Iran on March 7 rattled the global financial markets last week. Crude Oil price surged about 28 per cent, with Brent Crude touching a high of $94.65 per barrel before closing the week at $92.70. Conversely, global equity markets were hit hard initially, though some managed to recoup losses later. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were down 3 per cent and 2 per cent respectively.
Gold remained volatile and surprisingly failed to gain significant sheen despite the uncertainty. After an initial 2.7 per cent rise, it fell to close the week down by 2.7 per cent. Meanwhile, the dollar index gained about 1.2 per cent, suggesting it is being preferred as a safe-haven over gold this time, possibly because gold prices had already surged significantly prior to the conflict.
On the domestic front, the Nifty 50 and Sensex fell about 3.5 per cent each during the week, ending down by approximately 2.9 per cent. The Indian rupee fell 1.4 per cent, marking a new low of 92.30 against the dollar before closing at 91.75.
WHAT NEXT?
To forecast where these major asset classes are headed amid this uncertainty, this analysis relies on historical price movements and technical chart analysis.
Dollar Index: Ready for a bullish trend reversal
Broadly range-bound between 96 and 100.40 since June 2025, the dollar index (98.85) has strong immediate support at 97.60. A monthly close above 100.50, followed by a rise above 101.30, would signal a fresh bullish momentum that could take the index to 103 and potentially 105-106 this year. This bullish view would only be negated by a fall below 95. Notably, the dollar and oil have shown a strong directional correlation since 2022; if this continues, rising oil prices will likely drive the dollar higher.
- Take away: Emerging market currencies and commodity prices like metals could be beaten down.
Gold: Taking a back seat among safe havens
Gold ($5,172 per ounce) reached a high of $5,420 last week before retreating. While the broader uptrend remains intact as long as prices stay above $4,800, the metal appears to be losing strength. It may remain stuck in a wide range of $4,800-$5,600 rather than surging to $6,000. Analysis of the gold/Brent crude ratio also confirms a bearish trend reversal for the ratio, suggesting gold will underperform oil.
- Take away: This may not be the time for gold to shine.
Rupee: Double whammy
High oil prices and a strong dollar present a "double whammy" for the rupee. Rising oil costs increase the risk of India's trade deficit widening to $40 billion or more, which would further pressure the Current Account Deficit (CAD). Currently at 91.75, the rupee faces strong resistance at 91. If it stays below this level, it could fall to 93-93.10 in the near term. Long-term charts suggest the downside remains open to 96.50-96.70, depending on the extent of central bank intervention.
Brent Crude: More upside
Brent Crude ($92.70) has made a bullish breakout from a bear channel that existed since late 2023. This surge indicates the long-term downtrend since mid-2022 has likely ended. Immediate support is at $89.20. If momentum sustains, prices could rise to $98-99, followed by a corrective fall to $90-88, and then an eventual surge to $108. A rally above $100 remains highly likely as long as the US-Iran war continues.
- Take away: Be prepared for higher oil prices and high inflation.
Based on the sources, here is the reproduction of the article titled "‘US trade deal under review; to take 3-4 more months’":
‘US trade deal under review; to take 3-4 more months’
TAXING. India to keep close watch on whether the Trump administration uses other provisions to circumvent SC ruling
Poornima Joshi, New Delhi
The March deadline for the India-US trade deal will be set aside, and it may take another three-four months to reassess the situation and conclude the deal after the US Supreme Court struck down the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), according to a senior government source. The official stated that the court’s decision has paused the talks, but India will maintain a keen eye on what tools the US administration employs to impose additional tariffs. “...If they use another provision, we will assess whether the deal still makes sense. It will take three-four months,” the source said.
CLAUSE 8 TRIGGERED
The ruling has effectively triggered Clause 8 of the Indo-US joint statement, which specifies that if circumstances change, the deal would be reworked to maintain balance on both sides. The source noted that trade deals are built on preferential treatment, and once previous tariffs were declared illegal, India gained the opportunity to rework the deal. The official emphasized that India does not seek an antagonistic trade situation, describing the US economy as a “$30-trillion market” and a critical partner.
LEGAL AVENUES FOR TARIFFS
According to the source, the US has at least four alternative legal avenues to impose tariffs:
- Section 122 of the US Trade Act of 1974: Allows tariffs of up to 15 per cent for 150 days.
- Section 232 of the US Trade Expansion Act: Permits country- or product-specific tariffs ranging from 50 to 100 per cent.
- Section 338 of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930: A tool that has never been used by the US.
- Section 301 of the US Trade Act: Described as the most powerful tool, allowing Washington to investigate unfair trade practices and impose tariffs on entire sectors or countries.
Washington’s tariff strategy is expected to be shaped by domestic economic considerations, including efforts by the Trump administration to avoid fueling inflation.
Based on the sources, here is the reproduction of the article titled "Dollar Index: Ready for a bullish trend reversal", which is part of the broader analysis on the impact of the US-Iran war.
Dollar Index: Ready for a bullish trend reversal
Barring a fall to a low of 95.55 in January 2026, the dollar index (98.85) has been broadly range-bound between 96 and 100.40 since June 2025. Currently, 97.60 serves as strong immediate support, while crucial resistances are identified at 100.40 and 101.30.
BULLISH MOMENTUM
A monthly close above 100.50 would be the first sign of bulls gaining strength. A subsequent rise above 101.30 would boost momentum, potentially taking the index to 103 initially. This rise would mark the end of the previous downtrend and signal the start of a fresh upward leg, which has the potential to reach 105-106 this year.
To negate this bullish outlook, the index would need to break below 95.50 and subsequently fall below 95; however, for this to happen, the index would first have to sustain below 101.30. For now, the sideways range remains intact, but a bullish breakout is considered likely.
DOLLAR & CRUDE IN TANGO
A study of the relationship between Brent crude oil and the dollar index supports the rise to 105-106. While dollar and oil prices historically move in opposite directions, this changed after 2021. Over the last five years, they have shown a strong directional correlation, which has strengthened further since 2022.
The dollar index tends to follow oil price movements with a slight lag. Consequently, the expected rise of Brent crude to $108 could easily drive the dollar index toward the 105-106 level.
Take away: Currencies, especially those of emerging markets, could be beaten down in the coming months, and commodity prices like metals may also see a decline.
Based on the sources, here is the reproduction of the article titled "Equity risk premium":
Equity risk premium
By Sai Prabhakar Yadavalli, bl. research bureau
MIND IT All things remaining constant, stocks fall when equity risk premium goes up, and they move up when equity risk premium goes down.
As Kannan stares at his portfolio in disbelief over the losses in the last two weeks, he approaches Nitin for solace. The discussion veers into equity risk premium as Kannan realises that there is another side to returns apart from earnings growth.
Kannan: The fear is palpable in equity markets right now. Even without significant earnings downgrades, stocks are retracing on fear.
Nitin: Fear, sure, but the financial term for that is higher equity risk premium and yes investors are pricing more of it.
Kannan: Please elaborate.
Nitin: Think of owning one of two equal cash flows projections, one from a proven oil well and another from a prospective oil well. Naturally, you would pay less for cash flows from the prospective oil well. This is because you associate a higher risk from this one. To arrive at a price, you take the expected cash flow and ‘discount’ it to present day. But the riskier oil well will be discounted by a higher risk premium compared to the proven well. As the same cash flow is discounted to the present at a higher rate, it is lower than the other, which is the price difference.
Kannan: Are equities being subjected to the same principle now?
Nitin: Yes, the price you pay for a stock has two components. The earnings or cash flows that it will generate over the years. This is then ‘discounted’ to the present day by a discount factor that is a combination of risk free rate and risk premium. The last two weeks were more a function of equity risk premium increasing. There will be an earnings impact for sure, but for now, investors are more focussed on the equity risk premium side of the asset pricing equation.
Kannan: Risk premium for some sectors is under-rewarded right now.
Nitin: You are not rewarded for specific risks in companies and sectors because you are expected to diversify away that specific risk. Only the risk from investing in equity asset class, the risk which is over and above the safe government bonds, is what you are rewarded for. The risk premium is increasing due to uncertainty. This is the primary factor impacting equities now.
Of course, beyond what is explained, investors will have to deal with impact to earnings estimates, outlook on inflation, the rate path that central banks are likely to consider, and liquidity conditions; these are the big factors. But let’s keep it simple again. All things remaining constant, stocks fall when equity risk premium goes up, and they move up when equity risk premium goes down. So you can say that stocks and equity risk premium are inversely correlated.
Kannan: Now I am beginning to see. Investor perception of risk vs reward with regard to equities as an asset class is the driver for markets.
Nitin: Yes. Consider expectation of high inflation; this will erode the cash flow you earn in the future, from any sector or company. Or if global central banks start rising interest rates again, bonds become attractive compared to equities as a whole. Or even general liquidity that will be affected which trickles down to investment vs saving. These are being priced in now.
Kannan: Got it. Not to forget, the month of April will witness earnings and most likely guidance announcements.
Based on the sources, here is the reproduction of the article titled "Bear game":
Bear game
By Akhil Nallamuthu, bl. research bureau
F&O TRACKER Nifty futures can slip to 24,000 and Nifty Bank futures may drop to 57,000.
Nifty 50 (24,450) and Bank Nifty (57,783) fell 2.9 per cent and 4.5 per cent respectively last week. The chart of index futures and the derivatives positioning show a bearish bias. Here is our analysis:
NIFTY 50
Nifty futures (March) (24,546) opened with a gap-down last Monday. It extended the decline and made a low of 24,427 on Wednesday. While it attempted to rally, it could not reclaim the 25,000-mark.
The price action shows a clear bearish bias in Nifty futures. However, there is a potential support at 24,430. Given the current bearish momentum, the contract is likely to breach this level. In such a case, it can drop to 24,000.
On the other hand, if Nifty futures rallies from the current level of 24,546, it will face a resistance at 25,000. Even if the contract breaks out of this hurdle, it ought to surpass 25,500 to turn the outlook positive. Until then, the sellers might use higher levels to create fresh shorts, weighing on the contract.
In line with the chart’s bearish inclination, the futures has seen fresh short build-up. That is, as the March contract slipped 3.1 per cent last week, its outstanding open interest increased 10 per cent to 157 lakh contracts. That said, the Put Call Ratio (PCR) of March monthly options stood at 1.14 on Friday, showing a positive bias due to selling of relatively greater number of puts when compared to calls.
Overall, at the current juncture, the probability of a decline is high. But since there is a support ahead, traders might have to wait before going short afresh.
Strategy:
- Sell Nifty futures (March) if it slips below the support at 24,430. Target and stop-loss can be 24,000 and 24,630.
- In case the March contract moves up to 24,800, go short. Target and stop-loss can be 24,000 and 25,100 respectively.
NIFTY BANK
Nifty Bank futures (March) (58,079) began last Monday’s session with a considerable gap-down and witnessed an intraday decline. The bears dragged the contract further, particularly on Friday, when it lost 2.2 per cent in one session. For the week, it lost 4.6 per cent.
The price action shows the bears are holding the advantage and further decline is likely to occur. But before the next downswing, there could be a corrective rally, possibly to the 58,600-58,850 price band. After reaching these levels, the contract can resume the downtrend and potentially drop to 57,000. However, if it can break out of the barrier at 59,000, the outlook can turn positive, potentially leading to a rally to 60,500.
Supporting the bearish inclination, there has been a notable short build-up on Nifty Bank futures (March). Along with a 4.6 per cent decline last week, the outstanding open interest shot up by 46 per cent to 21.5 lakh contracts. In addition, the PCR of March options on Nifty Bank stood at nearly 0.80 on Friday, which is a bearish sign.
Strategy:
- Wait for Nifty Bank futures to rise to 58,600 and then go short. Target and stop-loss can be 57,000 and 59,200 respectively.
- Instead, if the March futures slips below 58,000, sell with a stop-loss at 58,300 for a target of 57,000.
Based on the sources provided, here is the reproduction of the article titled "War to sway US stocks as inflation adds wrinkle":
War to sway US stocks as inflation adds wrinkle
GLOBAL VIEW. US-Israel campaign against Iran consuming markets
Reuters, New York
Investors will seek signs in the coming week of how sprawling the war in the Middle East will become and how much it will disrupt energy supplies, as they chew over fresh inflation data.
A US-Israeli campaign against Iran that entered its seventh day on Friday was consuming markets, with a jump in oil prices headlining volatility across assets. US stocks swung sharply following the Middle East escalation, leaving the benchmark S&P 500 down 2% for the week. The Cboe Volatility Index, Wall Street’s most-watched gauge of investor anxiety, on Friday hit its highest level in nearly a year.
DROP IN PAYROLLS
Compounding woes for stocks was Friday’s weak US jobs report. The data for February showed a surprise drop in payrolls and the unemployment rate rising to 4.4 per cent.
Investors were balancing the historic tendency for equities to rebound in the wake of major global developments against a lack of clarity about the Iran situation. “This is a very big event and it seems incredibly uncertain where it's headed,” said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments. “To some extent, it's left investors as neither sellers nor buyers”.
OIL PRICES
One focal point for markets was the surge in energy prices stemming from the conflict and its significance for inflation and economic output. The fighting has paralysed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for around a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply.
Brent crude on Friday topped $90 a barrel, up from $70 before the conflict. In the near term, Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Investment Management, said changes in oil prices will be “a good barometer for whether risk assets will do well or they will do poorly”. Oil breaching $100 a barrel, he said, would be a psychological milestone that "would spook markets more".
Even with the weekly decline, the S&P 500 remained just over 3 per cent from its all-time closing high set in late January. Expectations of a solid economic backdrop and strong corporate earnings growth this year have supported stocks, countering worries about artificial-intelligence-driven disruptions and private credit. Heading into next week, “developments in the Middle East will move really all financial markets,” said Dominic Pappalardo, chief multi-asset strategist for Morningstar Wealth.
Investors will also be closely watching the next inflation measure. CPI for February is expected to show a 0.2 per cent increase on a monthly basis, according to a Reuters poll. Investors said markets may discount any report that is tame, because it covers a period almost entirely before the Middle East conflict. But a surprise spike in inflation could be particularly problematic. “If we get upside surprises to the inflation data next week, that could further fuel fears about inflation expectations rising and that would be bad for markets,” Arone said. “The concern is that higher oil prices will only feed into higher inflation dynamics going forward".
RATE CUTS
Such worries about energy-induced higher inflation have contributed to investors pushing back their estimate for the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate cut, although the weak jobs data on Friday revived easing expectations somewhat.
Market-based expectations for a cut of at least 25 basis points at the Fed’s June meeting stood at 45 per cent late on Friday, according to LSEG data.
Based on the source material, here is the reproduction of the article titled "Battle-weary", which provides an index outlook for Indian benchmark indices following the market volatility triggered by the US-Iran conflict.
Battle-weary
INDEX OUTLOOK. Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank can fall more. But long-term supports have the potential to halt the drop
By Gurumurthy K, bl. research bureau
Nifty 50 and Sensex fell about 2.9 per cent each last week, while the Nifty Bank index was beaten down by 4.5 per cent. The US-Iran war has triggered this sell-off in equity markets, and the ongoing conflict is expected to continue weighing on market sentiment. Consequently, Indian benchmark indices may fall further from current levels.
However, technical charts indicate that strong long-term supports are approaching. These supports are expected to halt the current decline and potentially trigger a reversal, presenting a good long-term buying opportunity.
FPIS SELL
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) sold heavily last week, with the equity segment seeing a net outflow of approximately $2.29 billion. FPI selling may continue as the war situation is unlikely to ease in the immediate future.
NIFTY 50 (24,450.45)
- Short-term view: The outlook is negative, with resistances at 24,900, 25,000, and 25,300. The Nifty could fall to 24,000, and a break below that level might drag it to 23,500 before a potential reversal back to 25,000. To regain earlier bullishness, the index must surpass 25,300.
- Medium-term view: The broader bullish view remains intact as long as the index stays above the 24,000-23,500 support zone. Targets for the medium term are 27,500-28,000, with long-term targets of 30,000-31,000. A decline below 23,500 would negate this view and open the door for a fall to 22,000 or lower.
NIFTY BANK (57,783.25)
- Short-term view: Previous expectations of support at 59,100 failed. Immediate support is now at 57,500, with the next support at 56,900. A fall to 56,900 is expected this week, though a bounce could take the index back to 59,000. A break below 56,900 would drag the index to 56,000 or lower.
- Medium-term view: Crucial supports exist at 56,000 and the 54,000-53,500 range. As long as the index stays above 53,500, the broader uptrend remains disrupted. Bullish targets remain at 64,000-65,000 (medium term) and 68,000-69,000 (long term).
SENSEX (78,918.90)
- Short-term view: Sensex declined sharply below the 80,100 support level. New resistances are at 79,500, 80,200, and 80,700. The index could fall to 77,000, with further downside extending to 76,000-75,500 if a bounce fails.
- Medium-term view: Strong support lies in the 76,000-75,500 region, and a fall beyond 75,500 is considered difficult. While the broader uptrend is intact, reaching previous targets of 89,000-90,000 and 98,000-99,000 will take more time than initially anticipated.
NIFTY MIDCAP 150 (21,181.80)
The support at 21,000 appears to be holding, with crucial short-term supports at 20,850 and 20,750. If these hold, a rise to 21,800-22,000 is possible. However, a break below 20,750 could drag the index to its strong long-term support at 20,000, which would be a buying opportunity. Long-term targets remain 28,000-28,500.
NIFTY SMALLCAP 250 (15,422.20)
The 15,000 level is currently holding as support. Sustaining above this could lead to a short-term rise to 16,000-16,500. If it fails, the next major support is at 14,000, which is unlikely to be breached and would offer a long-term buying opportunity. The long-term target is 22,500-23,000.
SUMMARY: LONG-TERM SUPPORTS
- Nifty 50: 24,000, 23,500
- Sensex: 76,000, 75,500
- Nifty Bank: 54,000, 53,500
Based on the sources provided, here is the reproduction of the article titled "SBI launches exclusive $500 m loan facility for women empowerment":
SBI launches exclusive $500 m loan facility for women empowerment
Our Bureau, Mumbai
State Bank of India on Saturday said it has launched a $500 million syndicated Social Term Loan facility, focussed exclusively on women empowerment, with a greenshoe option. The syndicated transaction, the first of its kind by SBI, is aimed at supporting gender equality and inclusive economic growth, and is expected to be the largest gender-themed loan globally, according to a statement from India’s largest bank.
ESG MILESTONE
This transaction, dedicated to advancing women empowerment initiatives across India, represents a milestone for both SBI and the global Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) financing landscape. It is specifically focussed on accelerating social impact and demonstrates the bank’s commitment to reducing "the gender gap". SBI noted that the financing also contributes meaningfully to UN’s Sustainable Development Goal 5 — ‘Achieve Gender Equality and Empower all Women and Girls’.
DRIVING SOCIAL CHANGE
SBI Chairman C S Setty stated, “On this women’s day... This landmark social loan embodies our dedication to Environmental, Social, and Governance principles, with a sharp focus on creating opportunities for women. We believe that true progress depends not only on economic growth but also on our ability to drive positive social change, empower women and build an inclusive society for all stakeholders”.
MUFG is the original Mandated Lead Arranger, Underwriter and Book-runner, and serves as the sole social loan co-ordinator for the transaction.
Based on the sources provided, here is the reproduction of the article titled "SBI launches exclusive $500 m loan facility for women empowerment":
Based on the source material, here is the reproduction of the article regarding the potential distribution of coconut oil through ration shops.
Centre mulls coconut oil distribution via ration shops instead of palm oil to benefit farmer, users
Our Bureau, Chennai
The Union government is considering the distribution of coconut oil instead of palm oil through the public distribution system (PDS) to ensure farmers get a better price. The Coconut Development Board has written to State Governments regarding this distribution through PDS or ration shops. Union Minister of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare Shivraj Singh Chouhan stated that substituting coconut oil for palm oil would not only provide a stable market and better prices for farmers but also offer healthier options to consumers. “If we promote coconut oil in the PDS, it will benefit the farmers. We will discuss this further with the State governments,” said Chouhan.
NEW VARIETIES
The government is emphasizing the development of new, advanced, and disease-resistant coconut varieties to improve productivity and quality. This effort is intended to help strengthen India’s position in the global coconut export market. Extensive post-Budget consultations are being held with farmers, scientists, and experts to ensure policy measures are grounded in the real needs of farmers. Once these discussions are complete, a comprehensive framework for the Coconut Promotion Board will be prepared.
PROMOTING PRODUCTION
The coconut promotion scheme, announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, aims to promote production, processing, and intercropping to increase grower income. The Agriculture Minister specifically noted that nearly 28 per cent of farmers in Tamil Nadu are expected to benefit from the implementation of these measures. The framework's goal is to create a strong institutional structure to support the development of the coconut sector in the coming years.
SENILE PLANTS
Minister Chouhan pointed out that many coconut plantations in the country are over 60 years old, which has led to a decline in productivity. Furthermore, diseases such as root wilt and white fly are also negatively affecting coconut output. “These challenges require coordinated efforts and innovative solutions to ensure that farmers can maintain productivity and improve their income levels,” Chouhan stated.
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