Newspaper Summary 260326

 

Europe running low on gas

Bloomberg

Europe is about to start the gas stockpiling season with key storage tanks depleted, meaning it will need to compete even more with Asian buyers to secure supplies, just as the Middle East conflict disrupts energy flows.

Dutch facilities are now just about 6 per cent full, the lowest for this time of year in data going to late 2010, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. In Germany, home to the region’s biggest sites, inventories are also much lower than usual, at about 22 per cent. The continent’s gas storage is in focus as the war in Iran has tightened global supplies and boosted prices. The war has come at a tricky time as Europe emerges from winter with storage tanks depleted, fuelling prospects that it will have to purchase more liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes this summer to refill them, vying with Asia for fewer available supplies.

The European Union’s energy chief has told member states to start filling gas storage early in order to avoid supply competition that could push prices up over summer. Governments should also lower their storage filling targets to 80 per cent and make the most of the flexibilities offered by EU law, Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen wrote in a letter.

Seasonal gas spreads have so far made it unprofitable to fill storage sites, but that’s starting to change. News of extensive damage to Qatar’s facilities pushed up longer-term gas contracts in Europe last week, which improved key seasonal spreads needed to encourage summer stockpiling.

Benchmark European gas futures have jumped more than 55 per cent since the war began. Europe’s total gas storages are about 28 per cent full, the lowest for the time of year since 2022.

Bernstein, UBS trim Nifty targets amid war worries

Madhu Balaji Bengaluru

Bernstein cuts Nifty 50 year-end target to 26,000, while UBS turns neutral

Heightened volatility and mounting headwinds prompted global and domestic brokerages to take a more cautious stance on Indian equities as the escalating West Asia conflict fuels crude oil volatility, inflation risks, and clouds the outlook for growth and corporate earnings. While most firms believe the domestic structural story remains intact, near-term market direction is seen hinging on the duration of geopolitical tensions, the trajectory of oil prices, and foreign capital flows, prompting several brokerages to pare index targets and reassess risk-reward.

‘GFC-LIKE RISKS’

Bernstein said the ongoing geopolitical shock could expose India’s macro vulnerabilities if elevated crude prices persist. It warned that a prolonged conflict could recreate conditions similar to the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Early warning signs are already visible, and a delay in rate cuts, weaker remittances from Gulf nations, and continued foreign investor outflows could strain the balance of payments and shave 3-4 per cent off GDP growth. The brokerage cut its year-end Nifty 50 target to 26,000, implying limited upside from current levels, and maintained a neutral stance on equities.

UBS also downgraded Indian equities to ‘neutral’ from ‘attractive’, citing rising macro vulnerability to energy supply disruptions and persistent price pressures. The brokerage said India’s heavy dependence on imported oil, LNG, and LPG left the economy exposed to geopolitical chokepoints, particularly the Strait of Hormuz.

OTHER BROKERAGES

Citi recently cut its year-end target for the Nifty 50 to 27,000 from 28,500, flagging rising risks to economic growth and corporate earnings. Nomura, too, slashed its December 2026 Nifty target by 15 per cent, bringing it down to 24,900 from 29,300. BNP Paribas warned that key macro indicators such as the balance of payments, fiscal position, inflation, and corporate earnings remain vulnerable to prolonged geopolitical stress.

In contrast, domestic brokerage Emkay Global staged a bullish perspective, maintaining its December 2026 Nifty target of 29,000 as it anticipates a sharp “peace dividend” bounce following any de-escalatory news. It expects India to be a major beneficiary of easing oil prices due to its heavy reliance on imported crude and projects Brent Crude to retreat to $75-80 per barrel. The brokerage added that domestic markets are poised for a smart recovery after recent foreign investor selling dragged the Nifty 50 lower, with easing crude prices and more reasonable valuations likely to attract flows back into equities. It expects the rupee and bond markets to strengthen alongside equities as investors quickly price in the peace dividend, even though real economic normalisation could take a few months.

Emkay Global cautioned that supply-chain disruptions and energy infrastructure damage may weigh on near-term earnings, estimating a modest impact on FY27 profits, with small- and mid-cap firms facing slightly higher but temporary pressure.

Big-ticket RCB, RR sale set to reshape overall valuation of the IPL ecosystem

Meenakshi Verma Ambwani New Delhi

The sale of Rajasthan Royals and Royal Challengers Bengaluru at whopping price tags is set to potentially re-shape the overall valuation of the Indian Premier League ecosystem. Analysts said not only does this mean an up-side in valuations commanded by other franchises but it also sets the stage for higher expectations from the next media rights auction cycle of the T20 league.

Experts also pointed out that while the valuation of the IPL ecosystem will surge, the gap between it and most valued leagues such as NFL remains, given the latter’s global appeal. Pointing out that this indicates strong global investor interest in IPL franchises as an asset class, Santosh N, Managing Partner of D&P Advisory, said, “Gujarat Titans last year was valued at about $1 billion and now Royal Challengers Bengaluru and Rajasthan Royals have been valued at $1.78 billion and $1.63 billion, respectively. I would say this is a gamechanger as it means every single IPL franchise today is worth over $1.5 billion. This milestone has been achieved in a shorter period of time compared to other global leagues.”

“The investors seem to be betting on a potential increase in the number of matches in the future, which will mean higher revenues for franchises. What is also critical is the assumption they are making about the commercials regarding the renewal of media rights for IPL. There is perhaps an expectation of a significant upside in terms of renewal of the media rights cycle, considering the media rights valuations has grown from about $2.5 billion to over $6 billion so far,” Santosh noted.

Ajimon Francis, MD, Brand Finance, said the transactions reflect the interest of global investors in leveraging brand IPL in other geographies beyond the Indian sub-continent. “Some of the franchises have already been focusing on developing an ecosystem through ownership of teams in international cricket leagues, and coaching and training operations, among others. That is just the tip of the iceberg and there is a lot more potential in terms of monetisation in the future. More valued leagues such as NFL, MLB and EPL have a viewership base across geographies with evolved structures. With the entry of these global investor-led consortiums, we believe IPL is also moving in that direction,” he said.

India’s energy choices have been sub-optimal

Under US pressure, it moved away from Iranian oil earlier. Such choices may have started to hurt Ritesh Kumar Singh

For years, Indian foreign policy has proudly invoked the doctrine of “strategic autonomy.” Yet as the Middle East crisis deepens in 2026, a sobering reality is emerging: New Delhi is paying a steep “appeasement tax” to Washington, while its primary regional rival, China, and its “all-weather” partner, Russia, reap the dividends of the chaos.

India imports roughly 85 per cent of the crude oil it consumes, leaving the economy deeply exposed to disruptions in global energy markets. Yet in recent years New Delhi has repeatedly aligned its oil purchases with pressure from the US — first by halting imports from Iran under sanctions and more recently by scaling back purchases of discounted Russian crude during trade tensions with Washington. India should respond with alacrity to limited waivers from the US to buy Iranian oil and should not voluntarily give up some of the cheapest and closest sources of energy while its competitors secure them.

SELECTIVE BLOCKADE

At the centre of the current crisis lies the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of global oil trade normally passes. Since the conflict escalated, Iranian forces have effectively turned the strait into a geopolitical filter. Attacks on commercial vessels and maritime disruptions have sharply reduced tanker traffic, forcing many ships to avoid the route altogether.

Yet the disruption has been far from uniform. While shipments from Gulf producers such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia face growing obstacles, Iranian crude continues to pass through the strait to China. Geography makes Iran one of India’s most natural energy partners, with Iranian ports lying barely a week’s sailing distance from India’s western refineries. By contrast, sourcing oil from the Atlantic basin — whether from Brazil or the US Gulf Coast — can require voyages lasting several weeks, leading to higher freight costs, higher insurance premiums, and larger inventories.

KREMLIN BENEFITS

Even as Washington signals flexibility through temporary waivers, India seems to be reacting cautiously, while Chinese buyers continue to purchase Iranian oil using non-dollar payment systems and shadow tanker fleets. Meanwhile, Russia clearly benefits from the chaos. Russia’s flagship export blend — Urals crude oil — which traded at steep discounts for much of the past two years, is now selling at a premium to Brent crude in deliveries to India as buyers scramble for alternatives.

The longer the conflict persists, the stronger Russia’s position becomes, while for India, the economic penalty increases. For India, turmoil in the Middle East carries consequences beyond crude prices, as the region is also one of India’s largest sources of inward remittances and a key export destination. Expensive oil feeds directly into inflation through transportation and logistics costs, while slowing trade and remittance flows can place additional pressure on the rupee. At some point, New Delhi must decide whether “strategic autonomy” is a slogan or a policy.

QED Investors keen to deploy $250-300 million in India

Our Bureau Bengaluru

QED Investors is sharpening its focus on India, committing to deploy $250–300 million over the next two fund cycles as it sees the market transition from a “story of promise” to one of tangible outcomes, backed by a maturing start-up and public markets ecosystem. The US-based fintech-focused venture capital firm, which has invested over $220 million across Asia-Pacific, counts India as its core geography in the region, with eight of its 14 investments anchored in the country.

“What has deepened our conviction is the quality of the ecosystem,” said Sandeep Patil, Partner and Head of Asia at QED Investors, pointing to a steady rise in technology IPOs and increasing participation from public market investors.

JEKYLL & HYDE

QED’s India thesis is underpinned by structural tailwinds and scaling financial services businesses. The investor is increasingly leaning into artificial intelligence as a core theme, even as it acknowledges the dual nature of the technology. “AI is a classic Jekyll-and-Hyde story in India,” Patil added, stating that while it can drive productivity, exports and innovation, it could also disrupt services employment and widen income disparities.

INDIA-BUILT

In fintech, QED sees AI unlocking opportunities across both enterprise and consumer segments. On the consumer side, conversational and voice-based interfaces could drive the next wave of adoption, particularly among users less comfortable with traditional app-based banking. The firm is also betting on the rise of “India-built, global-first” companies.

GLOBALLY EXPORTABLE

At the same time, QED remains cautious about regulatory risks. The firm said this makes it critical to back “regulatory-minded founders” who can navigate the evolving landscape. Going forward, QED plans to focus on high-ARPU segments, AI-native financial services, and scalable businesses.

‘Reforms driven by conviction, not compulsion; Budget backs middle class, MSMEs’

Our Bureau New Delhi

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday said the government is pursuing reforms out of “conviction” rather than compulsion, while asserting that the Budget for 2026-27 contains substantial measures aimed at the middle class and the MSMEs.

Replying to the debate on the Finance Bill in the Lok Sabha, which was later passed with 32 amendments, Sitharaman said the legislation reflects a clear reform philosophy and growth strategy. The Bill seeks to give effect to the Centre’s financial proposals for the financial year 2026-27.

“India is moving forward with reform not out of compulsion, which is what happened earlier, but out of conviction, with clarity, confidence and commitment,” Sitharaman said. She outlined five guiding principles of the Finance Bill: trust-based tax administration; ease of living for citizens; empowerment of farmers, MSMEs and cooperatives; strengthening India as a global business hub; and seamless trade facilitation alongside customs reforms.

PUBLIC DEBT PATH

Responding to criticism over rising public debt, Sitharaman said the government had laid down a clear glide path to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio to 50 per cent (plus or minus one per cent) by 2030-31. She noted that while the world's overall debt burden has increased 41 per cent since 2008, India had reduced its total debt burden by 4 per cent of its GDP. India’s combined debt-to-GDP figure is approximately 83 per cent and on a declining path.

MIDDLE-CLASS RELIEF

Rejecting opposition charges that the middle class had been overlooked, Sitharaman listed several measures:

• Reduction in Tax Collected at Source (TCS) on payments under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS) for foreign education and medical treatment.
• TCS on overseas tour packages cut to 2 per cent from 20 per cent.
• Customs duty exemption on 17 critical drugs and duty-free import of medicines for personal use.
• Permission to file updated income tax returns even after reassessment proceedings have begun.
• Introduction of a foreign asset disclosure scheme targeted at small taxpayers.
• Rationalization of tariffs on gifts and personal items at airports to reduce disputes.

GST AND DEMAND RECOVERY

Countering criticism that GST rate cuts in September 2025 had not yielded results, Sitharaman cited strong automobile sales data, with retail passenger vehicle sales recording a 26.1 per cent increase in February—the highest-ever for that month. She added that GST collections mirrored this recovery, with overall growth standing at 8.3 per cent for 2025-26. Tamil Nadu’s GST revenues specifically showed a sharp 18 per cent increase in February 2026 following the SGST settlement.

Civil society warns of ‘WTO reform capture’

Amiti Sen New Delhi

Civil society organisations across countries have warned that the “reform” push from developed countries at the WTO’s 14th Ministerial Conference (MC14), which opens today in Yaoundé, Cameroon, risks eroding the institution’s development mandate.

“Today, some of the key developed country members led by the US and the EU are attempting to hijack the stated objective of ‘reforming the WTO’ to push through a complete remake of the organisation into what promises to be an even more dangerous construct,” said a joint statement from 51 civil society organisations from various countries, coordinated by Our World Is Not For Sale (OWINFS).

The coalition warned that the proposals under discussion could dilute core principles such as non-discrimination, legitimise unilateral trade deals concluded under tariff pressure, and institutionalise decision-making through exclusive plurilateral arrangements dominated by major economies.

PRIME TARGET

“What is unfolding at MC14 is not reform — it is capture. We are witnessing the US and the EU using the language of ‘relevance’ to systematically strip developing countries of the policy space and flexibilities they have negotiated and bargained for. This process risks normalising coercion as a negotiating tool, while shifting agenda-setting power even further toward the interests of the world’s most powerful countries and largest corporations,” said Jane Nalunga, Executive Director of SEATINI.

Although competition from China is cited as the prime target, the statement noted that it is actually the poorer WTO members who will suffer most. The coalition expressed concern that through plurilateral agreements and the sidelining of developing countries’ own agendas, the WTO will become a platform for new rules that further constrain pathways for developing countries to achieve long-term sustainable development.

Another major concern is the push by developed countries to make permanent the moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions. Civil society groups argued that allowing this moratorium to lapse would restore much-needed fiscal space for developing countries.

While rejecting the current reform direction, the coalition is not defending the status quo. It instead called for:

• Strengthening special and differential treatment provisions.
• Securing a permanent solution on public stockholding for food security.
• Revisiting intellectual property rules to improve access to medicines and climate technologies.
• Restoring policy autonomy.

“The question is not whether the WTO needs to change — it clearly does. The question is whether the proposed changes address its failures or entrench them. On that test, they do not pass,” said Chee Yoke Ling, Executive Director of Third World Network.

No coercive action without hearing Meta: Delhi HC

Press Trust of India New Delhi

The Delhi High Court on Wednesday asked the Central Consumer Protection Authority (CCPA) not to take any coercive action against Meta Platforms Inc over any unauthorised listing on Facebook marketplace without giving the US-based social media giant an opportunity to present its stand. Justice Purushaindra Kumar Kaurav, while dealing with Meta’s petition against a CCPA order imposing a ₹10 lakh penalty on it for alleged unauthorised sale and listing of walkie-talkies on the Facebook Marketplace, said the platform cannot be penalised without a hearing.

Meta stated it was not permitting any listings for walkie-talkies on the marketplace but objected to the other “omnibus” directions to it, including ensuring that no other product requiring statutory approval or certification was listed or sold without due approvals.

LEGALLY EMPOWERED

The counsel for the Centre defended the order and submitted that the CCPA was legally empowered to pass the directions. “The court, however, finds that the petitioner could not be penalised on account of any vague or omnibus directions which seem to have been issued in paragraph 43(b) (of the order). Unless the act of the petitioner is...”.