Newspaper Summary - 060326

 

Enough LNG stocks now, but India will ration gas if disruption persists

AFTERSHOCK. Fertilizer industry and city gas distribution to get full supplies; govt monitoring LPG situation too Rishi Ranjan Kala New Delhi

India is currently “comfortable” with stocks of natural gas and the arrangements being made to procure LNG from Australia and Canada. However, if required, the government will “re-prioritise” allocation, with the fertilizer industry and city gas distribution (CGD) companies getting uninterrupted supplies.

The shutting down of liquefied natural gas (LNG) production by QatarEnergy has threatened 60 million standard cubic meters per day (MSCMD) of India’s cumulative consumption of 195 MSCMD. India imports half its requirement of natural gas, of which 40-42 per cent comes from Qatar.

IN TALKS WITH IEA, OPEC

Top government sources said that India is in touch with the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the OPEC on the West Asian scenario. It is also talking to the US, Australia and Canada for LNG supplies.

“We are in a comfortable position currently on LNG and LPG. We are in touch with traders, such as Sonatrach Petroleum (Algeria), ADNOC, Trafigura and Vitol, as well as national oil companies (NoC) to purchase LNG and LPG,” said one of the sources.

PRIORITISING SUPPLIES

On rationing of LNG supplies, another source said the situation is “comfortable” at present but supplies can be “re-prioritised” if the Strait of Hormuz bottleneck persist. Meanwhile, GAIL announced that supplies from Qatar had come to a halt and it is assessing the need to curtail supplies to select customers. This comes after GAIL’s long-term supplier Petronet LNG issued a force majeure.

“GAIL is currently assessing the situation with respect to any supply curtailment that may need to be imposed on its downstream customers. Notwithstanding the above, LNG supplies to GAIL from other sources/suppliers are currently unaffected. At this stage, the potential impact of the ongoing force majeure situation cannot be quantified,” the PSU said in a BSE filing.

COOKING GAS

On LPG as well, the government is constantly reviewing the supply scenario. India imports more than half the LPG it consumes, with West Asia accounting for as much as 90 per cent of the total imports — most of which pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

“LPG from the US started coming to India from January. We are also buying from Norway. Besides, we have enough refining capacity, and with the crude supplies, refiners can produce more LPG. So, that is also an option,” explained a top source.

Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst for Refining and Modelling, said that refineries can be pushed to maximise LPG yields, but refinery configurations and operational constraints mean production cannot be ramped up meaningfully to compensate imports.

MARINE INSURANCE

Top government sources also said that India is talking to the US on its proposed mechanism for providing marine insurance for oil tankers and other product vessels crossing the 34 km-long world’s most critical energy choke point.

“The Oil Secretary is in touch with US authorities on the matter of marine insurance. The discussions focused on issues such as insurance cover and the corpus amount to be created for the insurance,” said one of the sources.

In a March 3 statement, the US International Development Finance Corporation said it is ready to mobilise its Political Risk Insurance and Guaranty products to stabilise international commerce and support American and allied businesses operating in the West Asia during this period of conflict with the Iranian regime.

Services exports closing in on slowing goods shipments

Sourashis Banerjee Chennai

With services exports growing briskly and merchandise export growth stagnating, the two are now converging. India’s merchandise exports grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.2 per cent between FY22 and FY25, with a slowdown evident in FY26 as well. In contrast, services exports climbed sharply at a CAGR of 16 per cent during the same period.

Services exports currently stand at $348.4 billion for FY26 (covering April 2025 to January 2026), compared to merchandise exports of $366.3 billion, as the gap between the two narrows. This growth in services has been led by telecom and IT services, whereas merchandise exports have been dragged down by a decline in petroleum product shipments.

Services exports are largely driven by the technology and consulting sectors. Specifically, exports for telecom, computer, and information services grew at a 9.7 per cent CAGR, rising from $152.3 billion in FY23 to $183.3 billion in FY25.

FUEL EXPORTS DOWN Merchandise exports have been heavily weighed down by falling petroleum shipments. Exports of petroleum crude and related products experienced a steep decline of 19.4 per cent in CAGR, dropping from $97.5 billion in FY23 to $63.4 billion in FY25.

Experts suggest this overall trend reflects India’s deep talent pool within the technology and business services sectors. Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist at Bank of Baroda, noted that the demand for petrol products is influenced by economic growth and the global shift toward renewables. He stated, “This, coupled with lower crude prices, accounts for the export performance.”

However, other areas of merchandise are seeing growth. Electronics shipments surged from $23.6 billion in FY23 to $38.6 billion in FY25, driven significantly by smartphone exports, particularly iPhones.

‘ECB very vigilant on war inflation impact’

The European Central Bank is monitoring the impact of surging energy costs due to the Iran war extremely carefully and will consult projections to decide whether action is needed, according to Governing Council member Joachim Nagel. The Bundesbank President recalled the price shock that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and stressed that policymakers are determined to avoid second-round effects. — BLOOMBERG

Sensex up 900 points on Iran’s N-programme offer

DE-ESCALATION HOPES. Markets snap a three-session losing streak on the back of improved investor sentiment Anupama Ghosh Mumbai

Equity benchmarks staged a sharp recovery on Thursday, snapping a three-session losing streak, after rumours surfaced that Iran had conditionally offered to abandon its nuclear programme, raising hopes of de-escalation in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict.

The BSE Sensex surged 899.71 points to close at 80,015.90, while the Nifty 50 gained 285.40 points to settle at 24,765.90. Earlier in the session, both indices gave up a portion of intra-day gains after an initial surge.

CATALYSTS FOR RALLY

The catalyst for the rally was a combination of geopolitical and trade-related developments. The US announced security and insurance guarantees for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, including the possibility of military escorts for oil tankers, which eased fears of disruption to global energy supplies.

Separately, a US Deputy Secretary indicated that India-US bilateral trade deal negotiations are nearing completion. Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, noted: “Investor sentiment improved after comments from the US deputy secretary suggested that an India-US trade deal may be nearing completion... Market momentum strengthened toward the close after reports that Iran had conditionally offered to abandon its nuclear programme”.

MARKET PERFORMANCE

Broader markets outperformed the frontline indices, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 gaining 1.52 per cent and 1.58 per cent, respectively. On the BSE, 2,749 stocks advanced against 1,515 declines. However, reflecting lingering stress in some pockets, 381 stocks hit fresh 52-week lows, compared to only 66 reaching 52-week highs.

SECTORAL GAINS

Sectoral gains were broad-based:

• Nifty Metal: Advanced 2.29 per cent.
• Nifty Infra: Gained 2.21 per cent.
• Nifty Auto: Gained 1.86 per cent.
• India Defence Index: Gained 2.5 per cent.
• Nifty IT: The lone sectoral loser, slipping 0.59 per cent.

Among individual stocks, Mazagon Dock was a standout gainer, surging around 8 per cent on reports of a potential ₹99,000-crore defence deal. BSE Ltd rose over 4 per cent after receiving approval to launch index derivatives on two additional indices. Adani Ports and Hindalco Industries were also among the top Nifty performers. Key laggards included Tech Mahindra and ICICI Bank, weighed down by profit booking and subdued sectoral sentiment.

Weather woes, reduction in area may hit cumin output

MIXED BAG. A majority of stakeholders see a 5-20% drop in output, while some say it could rise by 5-7% Vishwanath Kulkarni Bengaluru

Reduced acreage, erratic weather and diseases such as blight are likely to weigh on cumin (jeera) output in the 2026 season. While the trade remains divided over the crop size, most stakeholders expect the production to decline. Uncertainty in demand amid the ongoing tensions in West Asia, which have disrupted shipments, is also weighing on market sentiment as arrivals of the new crop begin in key producing centres.

KEY STATES

The trade body Federation of Indian Spice Stakeholders (FISS) estimates the 2026 cumin output at 5.13 lakh tonnes (lt), which is 5 per cent lower than the 5.38 lt a year ago. Production in Gujarat is expected to fall 27 per cent to 1.83 lt owing to an 18 per cent decline in area and a 11 per cent drop in yield.

In contrast, Rajasthan’s output is projected to rise 15 per cent to 3.29 lt, supported by a 4 per cent rise in area and a 11 per cent improvement in yield, according to FISS estimates. “The crop is good but slightly lower than last year,” said Ashwin Nayak, Founder-Chairman of FISS. He noted that prices could come under pressure if the conflict in West Asia drags on, as shipments to the region have largely stalled.

AMPLE SUPPLIES

Dinesh Soni, Finance Director of the Rajasthani Association of Spices, estimated the crop at 80-82 lakh bags (of 55 kg each), citing above-normal temperatures during the crop cycle that may have affected yields. Including carryover stocks of about 20 lakh bags, overall supplies remain comfortable at over one crore bags. Of this, 60-65 lakh bags are likely to be consumed domestically, with the rest available for export.

Raw jeera prices have eased to around ₹180-190 per kg with the start of new crop arrivals. Bhagirath Chaudhary, Founder Director of the South Asia Biotechnology Centre in Jodhpur, said production could fall by 10 per cent. He noted that the crop area declined as some farmers in Rajasthan shifted to mustard. “The short winter, followed by a sudden spike in temperatures and the emergence of blight, has affected the crop,” Chaudhary said. Yogesh Mehta of SpicExim estimates that output could drop by 20 per cent to about 4.4 lt, mainly due to lower production in Gujarat.

WAR IMPACT

Market sentiment has turned bearish due to the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, which has disrupted shipments. Mehta, a veteran exporter, stated, “There may not be firm buying interest for the next two to three weeks. Demand could revive by the first week of April”. Spot prices are currently hovering around ₹4,200 per 20 kg and may face further pressure if the conflict continues. Buying interest from China is expected to emerge around mid-April.

Coffee prices rise, while sugar and cocoa rule flat

Reuters London

Robusta coffee futures rose on Thursday, boosted partly by concerns that the Middle East conflict could disrupt shipments to Europe. Meanwhile, sugar and cocoa prices remained barely changed.

Robusta coffee was up 0.5 per cent to $3,752 a tonne at 1147 GMT, while Arabica coffee gained 0.8 per cent to reach $2.8865 per lb.

In the sugar market, raw sugar fell 0.1 per cent to 13.72 cents/lb, whereas white sugar gained a marginal 0.05 per cent, reaching $409.50 a tonne. Dealers noted that a potential loss of demand for raws from Gulf refineries helped offset other support for sugar prices.

Swiss-based Lonza to set up GCC in Hyderabad

Hyderabad: Switzerland-based pharma player Lonza Group AG will establish a Global Capability Centre (GCC) in Hyderabad. A team from the company met the State Minister for Industries, D Sridhar Babu, and the CEO of Telangana Lifesciences, Shakthi M Nagappan, and formally conveyed the decision on the new GCC. — OUR BUREAU

Heat, rainfall deficit hit Kashmir’s nursery industry

HEAT BLOW. Nursery growers say the rise in temperature has made planting difficult and disrupted the seasonal cycle Gulzar Bhat Srinagar

Unusually high temperatures and a sharp rainfall deficit have hit nurseries across the Kashmir Valley, with farmers delaying the planting of trees, impacting the business pegged about ₹100 crore.

Weather officials said the Valley had recorded daytime temperatures of 20° C-21° C since mid-February — about 11° above normal for the period. Rainfall had also been scarce; in February, Srinagar recorded only 5.3 mm of precipitation, the lowest for the month since 1960.

IMPACT ON SALES

The unusual weather has led to a decline in sales. "Sales have declined by 25-30 per cent because farmers are not buying plant materials," said a grower. The region is home to more than 400 nurseries that supply saplings across Kashmir.

Another nursery owner noted that the current conditions are some of the most difficult in many decades. "With these changing climatic conditions, planting has become very difficult," he said, adding that while he usually sells most of his stock by the first week of March, this year nearly 40 per cent of his stock remains unsold.

PLANTATION SEASON

The plantation season in Kashmir typically begins in mid-February and continues until the second week of March. However, the lack of moisture is a major concern for growers.

Tariq Ahmad Mir, an apple grower, said, “There is very little moisture in the soil. Even if saplings are planted now, they may not survive”.

Amit Shah launches digital tools and mascots for Census 2027

Our Bureau New Delhi

Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Thursday soft-launched four digital tools that will power India’s first fully digital Census, which is set to begin on April 1.

Shah unveiled the Houselisting Block Creator (HLBC) web application for digital mapping using satellite imagery, the HLO mobile application for enumerators to collect and upload data, the Self-Enumeration (SE) portal for citizens to submit details online, and the Census Management and Monitoring System (CMMS), a central platform to manage the exercise.

He also unveiled the mascots for Census-2027 — 'Pragati’ (female) and 'Vikas’ (male). According to an MHA statement, these mascots symbolise the equal participation of men and women in fulfilling the resolve to make India a developed nation by 2047.

NOVEL INITIATIVE

The four digital platforms were developed by the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC). The ₹11,718-crore exercise, which is the 16th Census of India, will feature several firsts, including caste enumeration and the option for citizens to self-enumerate. Originally scheduled for 2021, the Census was delayed due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Census will be conducted in two phases:

• House listing and housing census: April to September 2026.
• Population enumeration: February 2027.

DIGITAL FEATURES

The HLBC web application will allow officials to use satellite imagery to create house listing blocks, ensuring standardized geographic coverage.

The HLO mobile application is designed to replace traditional paperwork with a secure offline tool for field data collection. Only enumerators registered on the CMMS portal can access the app, which transmits data directly to the server. Compatible with Android and iOS, it can be used in 16 regional languages.

The Self-Enumeration portal will be available for 15 days before the house listing phase begins, giving citizens the opportunity to submit their household information online before enumerators start their field visits.

India’s industrial and warehousing market rose 29% on-year in 2025: Knight Frank report

KEY DRIVERS. The growth was driven by demand from manufacturing, third party logistics, e-comm and allied sectors Our Bureau Chennai

The industrial and warehousing market in 2025 recorded a 29 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in demand to 72.5 million sq ft across the eight primary markets, according to international property consultancy Knight Frank India’s report. This marks the first year of growth at this scale in the post-pandemic period with the fourth quarter of 2025 emerging as the strongest quarter of the year, with 23.4 msf transacted, the report said.

BROAD-BASED DEMAND

The growth was driven by sustained demand from manufacturing, third party logistics (3PL), e-commerce and allied sectors. Grade A facilities remained the preferred choice among occupiers, accounting for 63 per cent of leased space in 2025, compared to 62 per cent in the same period last year.

Manufacturing occupiers (excluding FMCG and FMCD) maintained their lead as the largest demand drivers, commanding 47 per cent of total volume with 34 msf transacted in 2025, translating to a 55 per cent y-o-y growth during the period.

Space take-up by e-commerce players increased 56 per cent y-o-y in 2025, absorbing 7.8 msf, the highest annual volume recorded since 2021. The sector accounted for 11 per cent of the total market activity in 2025, indicating a steady recovery in demand and a stronger role in overall absorption, the report said.

CRITICAL HEAVYWEIGHTS

Also, 2025 reflected a clear shift in regional leadership. Pune emerged as the most prolific market, recording 16 msf in transactions, marking an 86 per cent y-o-y growth and capturing a 22 per cent share of total volumes. Manufacturing transactions were notably concentrated in Pune and Chennai, which together accounted for 51 per cent of manufacturing leasing activity during the year, according to the report.

Except Kolkata and Hyderabad, all markets witnessed a growth in overall transaction volumes in 2025. The distribution of activity signals a maturing market where capital and occupiers increasingly align with established manufacturing ecosystems as in Pune.

TRANSFORMATION ON

Shishir Baijal, International Partner, Chairman and Managing Director, Knight Frank India, said the sector’s record performance in 2025 underscores the structural transformation underway in supply chains.