Russian Campaign Assessment: Ukrainian Strikes Disrupt Maritime Logistics

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 11, 2026

The recent, intensified Ukrainian strikes against Russian seaborne gasoline tankers in the Sea of Azov have reportedly forced Russia to close some maritime routes. On the night of July 10 to 11, Ukrainian forces struck 28 Russian vessels, including 21 tankers, four tugboats, two dry cargo ships, and a dredger. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that these oil tankers were transporting petroleum products in violation of international sanctions, while other vessels supported military logistics. Major Robert “Magyar” Brovdi, commander of the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF), reported that Ukrainian forces struck a total of 76 vessels between July 6 and 11. Consequently, Russian authorities have reportedly suspended maritime traffic through the Kerch Strait and the Don-Azov Canal.

Ukrainian strikes against gasoline transports mark a new phase in efforts to isolate occupied Crimea and disrupt Russian shipping routes for petroleum and grain. Data from Starboard Maritime Intelligence indicates a possible 55 percent decline in vessels with active automatic identification system (AIS) transponders in the Sea of Azov between June 30 and July 11, dropping from 267 to 120 vessels. While AIS data can be spoofed or jammed, the decline suggests that fewer ships are sailing due to the threat of strikes, or that ships are turning off transponders to obfuscate their locations.

Economic and Institutional Developments

Russian consumer gasoline prices are skyrocketing due to Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign against refineries and producers. Consumer prices for gasoline increased by an average of 6.88 percent in June 2026, with AI-92 rising 7.3 percent and diesel rising 7.1 percent. These strikes, occurring during the high-demand summer tourist season, have led to gasoline shortages in at least 78 of Russia’s 83 federal subjects.

Additionally, Russia appears to have engaged in a hacking operation targeting civilian cameras across European NATO member states and Ukraine. According to Dutch intelligence, Kremlin-based hackers accessed civilian cameras, likely including doorbell systems, to identify types of weapons being transported to Ukraine.

In response to the conflict's evolution, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky authorized the creation of two new commands on July 10: the Long-Range (Global) Influence Command, aimed at degrading Russia's warfighting potential in the deep rear, and the Joint Rapid Response Forces within the Ground Forces.

Key Takeaways

1. Ukrainian strikes in the Sea of Azov forced Russia to close some maritime routes.
2. AIS data indicates a 55 percent decline in active vessel transponders in the Sea of Azov.
3. Intensified strikes have likely prompted Russian vessels to alter behavior or obfuscate locations.
4. Russian gasoline prices are skyrocketing due to refinery strikes.
5. Russia is targeting civilian cameras in NATO countries and Ukraine for intelligence.
6. Ukraine created new long-range and rapid-response commands.
7. Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone attack against Ukraine overnight.
8. Russian forces advanced near Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka; Ukrainian forces advanced in the Novopavlivka direction.

Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation

The Ukrainian General Staff provided updated battle damage assessments (BDA) for recent strikes:

• Volgograd City (June 27): A strike on the Titan-Barrikady research center caused $105 million in damages.
• Leningrad Oblast (July 4): Strikes on the St. Petersburg Oil Terminal damaged eight oil tanks and processing equipment.
• Yaroslavl Oblast (July 6): Strikes damaged pipelines at the Slavneft-Yanos Oil Refinery.
• Voronezh Oblast (July 8): A strike on the Borisoglebsk military airfield set fire to 28 kerosene tanks.
• Republic of Tatarstan (July 8): A strike on the TAIF-NK JSC Oil Refinery damaged a coking unit and utility buildings.
• Krasnodar Krai (July 10): Strikes on the Ilsky Oil Refinery ignited multiple distillation units.

Russian Supporting Effort: Northern Axis (Sumy Oblast)

Russian forces continued offensive operations but made no confirmed advances. While the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have seized Bachivsk, Ukrainian officials stated they still control the settlement and stopped a Russian infiltration attempt. Ukrainian forces used HIMARS and drones to strike Russian artillery and drone control points in the Belgorod and Kursk border areas.

Russian Main Effort: Eastern Ukraine

• Kharkiv Oblast: Russian forces continued operations north and northeast of Kharkiv City and toward Velykyi Burluk without confirmed advances.
• Oskil River Direction: Ukrainian counterattacks near Kupyansk and Borova have stalled Russian advances. Ukrainian strikes on radar and electronic warfare stations in Kupyansk have constrained Russian tactical maneuvers.
• Donetsk Oblast:
  • Russian forces recently advanced in the southwestern outskirts of Kostyantynivka.
  • In the Pokrovsk direction, the first evidence of the Russian “Salehard” USF Battalion was observed.
  • Ukrainian forces advanced in southern Novopavlivka, which remains a contested "grey zone."
  • Ukrainian intermediate-range strikes targeted electrical substations and military training grounds in occupied Volnovakha and Horlivka.

Russian Supporting Effort: Southern Axis

Russian forces are fielding the new K-8 Dvushka strike drone in Zaporizhia Oblast, which is reportedly resistant to electronic warfare. Meanwhile, Ukrainian strikes destroyed a repair base of the 58th Combined Arms Army in Berdyansk. In Kherson Oblast, Ukrainian drone strikes have caused a shortage of high-speed motorboats, impeding Russian movements in the Dnipro River delta.

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign

Overnight, Russian forces launched 121 drones and 12 missiles (Iskander-M, S-400, Kh-59/69, and Kh-31) against Ukraine. Ukrainian forces downed 111 drones and two cruise missiles. Strikes targeted residential, commercial, and port infrastructure across multiple oblasts, including a guided bomb strike on Sumy City that killed five civilians.