Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 29, 2026

Assessment as of: 9:45 PM ET. Data Cutoff: 1:00 PM ET.

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Russia’s superior aviation capabilities are allowing it to use glide bomb strikes to enable infantry advances in and near Kostyantynivka. Russian forces are widely using these strikes against cities in Ukraine’s Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast to destroy Ukrainian strongpoints and ground control stations, allowing infiltrators to enter and eventually seize positions,. The commander of a Ukrainian drone unit reported that these glide bomb successes are imposing major challenges for Ukrainian forces. This tactic, debuted at scale during the seizure of Avdiivka in February 2024, has supported offensives against Vuhledar, Kurakhove, and Toretsk,. Even as infantry tactics have shifted toward mostly small-group infiltrations in 2026, Russian forces continue to rely on aviation overmatch. They are also leveraging glide bombs in a battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign against Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in the tactical and operational rear.

Efforts to degrade Russian aviation likely will deprive Russian forces of this tactical advantage and help reduce the tempo of their advances. Ukraine has already significantly degraded Russia’s ground-based air defense network through a sustained SEAD/DEAD campaign since late 2025,. Continued Western support for efforts to degrade combat aviation, including with F-16 and Gripen fighter jets, can significantly reduce Russia's aviation advantage. A degradation of these capabilities likely would slow Russian advances on the ground and hinder their ability to destroy fortified positions and interdict logistics,.

The Situation in and near Kostyantynivka

The situation in and near Kostyantynivka is deteriorating, but Russian forces have not seized the city despite their claims. Fighting will likely continue for several weeks as Russian forces attempt to consolidate positions gained through infiltrations. Urban combat continues throughout large portions of the city, with positions intermixed and Russian forces conducting infiltration missions,. Geolocated footage indicates Ukrainian forces recently advanced or maintained positions in southwestern Kostyantynivka that infiltrators had bypassed, while other footage shows Russian forces striking Ukrainian forces in areas they previously claimed to maintain. Ukrainian forces also struck Russian positions in central Kostyantynivka following an assessed infiltration mission. While Russian soldiers continue to infiltrate the city and complicate the defense, Ukrainian units are still rotating infantry, and their rear is not at risk of encirclement for at least several more weeks.

Russian forces are also infiltrating beyond the northern outskirts of Kostyantynivka. Reports indicate they have essentially seized Molocharka and are moving into Izhevka,. Infiltrators are also operating on the southern outskirts of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, although these positions are likely limited and not consolidated,.

Kremlin Denials of Mobilization

The Kremlin denied it is preparing for mobilization, likely to assuage public concerns and signal Vladimir Putin’s desire to prioritize volunteer recruitment over compulsory call-ups,. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed reports of mobilization are "false provocations" aimed at destabilizing Russia before the September 2026 State Duma elections. He asserted that Russia has fully met its recruitment needs, reportedly recruiting about 200,000 contract service members and 16,000 volunteers in the first half of 2026. Other officials, including Andrei Kartopolov and Vladimir Solovyov, similarly rejected the prospects for mobilization,.

These denials are likely in response to emerging reports and laws suggesting preparations for mobilization are underway. President Zelensky recently stated that Russian forces are preparing to launch a "significant" mobilization wave in Fall 2026, potentially involving 500,000 troops. Other indicators include a prominent milblogger contradicting Medvedev by urging Russians to sign up before mobilization is announced, and reports that the United Shipbuilding Corporation has increased eligibility criteria for specialists to be freed up for potential call-up,. Additionally, the Russian government passed laws in July 2026 allowing people with criminal records to sign contracts during formal mobilization periods and is considering restrictions to quell resistance.

Recruitment Challenges

Russia is not on track to meet its annual recruitment target for 2026. While the Kremlin planned to recruit 409,000 troops, it had only recruited 221,000 by late July while suffering 225,500 casualties. Russian federal subjects have been steadily increasing sign-up bonuses—up to 4.1 million rubles (about $5,250) in some regions—but the campaign is increasingly failing to achieve its goals amidst heavy battlefield losses. This challenge may force Putin into a difficult decision regarding compulsory mobilization by the end of the year.

Telegram and the Open Internet

The Kremlin is setting conditions to block Telegram and deny the open internet, possibly to control societal backlash in the event of mobilization,. The FSB charged Telegram CEO Pavel Durov on July 29 with aiding terrorism, alleging the platform failed to remove channels used to coordinate sabotage. While some Russian sources claim this doesn't mean a ban is imminent, others suggest Telegram may be declared a "terrorist resource",. The Kremlin has significantly intensified its crackdown on the open internet since 2025.

Key Takeaways

1. Russia’s superior aviation capabilities allow glide bomb strikes to enable infantry advances near Kostyantynivka.
2. Efforts to degrade these capabilities will likely reduce the tempo of Russian advances.
3. The situation near Kostyantynivka is deteriorating, but Russian forces have not seized the city.
4. The Kremlin denied mobilization preparations to assuage public concern.
5. Russia is not on track to meet its 2026 recruitment target.
6. The Kremlin is setting conditions to block Telegram and the open internet.
7. Russia launched 60 drones against Ukraine overnight.
8. Ukrainian forces continued long-range strikes against energy and industrial infrastructure.
9. Russian forces recently advanced in the Velykyi Burluk and Slovyansk directions.

Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation

Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil and industrial infrastructure on July 28 and 29. Strikes hit the Ryazan Oil Refinery and the Lukoil-Permnaftoorgsintez in Perm City, both major facilities with significant processing capacities,. A fire was also reported at a Wildberries warehouse in Ryazan City after a strike, leading the company to consider moving warehouse space to Kazakhstan to avoid the high risk of drone strikes in Russia,,. The Kremlin is reportedly exploring tax breaks and state loans to support Wildberries. Furthermore, Ukraine has shifted its campaign to target hard-to-replace critical components within refineries to keep them closed longer and cause larger damages to oil revenues,.

Russian Supporting Effort: Northern Axis

Russian forces continued offensive operations in Sumy Oblast on July 28 and 29 but made no confirmed advances as Ukrainian forces counterattacked. There are conflicting reports regarding control of Nova Sich and Ivolzhanske,. Ukrainian forces are also using unmanned systems to hinder Russian drone activity in northern Sumy Oblast,.

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast

Russian forces conducted an infiltration mission west of Bilyi Kolodyaz,. In the Velykyi Burluk direction, Russian forces reportedly seized Ivashkyne and conducted a mechanized assault near Artilne,. Claims also suggest they seized Odradne. While milbloggers claim Russia is attempting to envelop Ukrainian forces in northeast Kharkiv Oblast by attacking from Vovchansk and Velykyi Burluk, ISW assesses such a maneuver is extremely unlikely to succeed,.

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Oskil River

Russian forces continued operations in the Kupyansk and Borova directions but did not advance,. Heavy fighting over individual positions continues, with both sides emphasizing drone efforts,. Ukrainian forces reportedly previously advanced southeast of Borova near Hrekivka and Ridkodub. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces struck an electrical substation in occupied Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk Oblast, as part of an intermediate strike campaign.

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast

• Slovyansk: Russian forces reportedly seized Ozerne and conducted glide bomb strikes against Myrne,. They have intensified operations here but are slowed by terrain and Ukrainian defenses.
• Lyman: Russian units claim to be clearing Lyman with little resistance, but evidence suggests Ukrainian forces control the vast majority of the settlement. Some Russian elements are reportedly experiencing critical fuel shortages, forcing them to abandon vehicles.
• Kramatorsk/Kostyantynivka: Russian forces are attempting to adapt drone technology, including using machine vision and AI-enabled targeting for FPV drones, to overcome Ukrainian interceptions,. They are also reportedly advancing along the flanks of Kostyantynivka,.
• Dobropillya: Ukrainian forces advanced or maintained positions near Novyi Donbas and counterattacked near Svitle,. A recent Russian mechanized attack toward Hannivka resulted in the loss of 15 armored vehicles.
• Pokrovsk: Ukrainian forces maintained positions in eastern Shevchenko. Russian forces continue using small-group infiltrations and are intensifying drone strikes using relatively trained operators,.
• Rear Areas: Ukrainian forces struck a military equipment warehouse in Portivske, a road bridge near Vyselky, and an ammunition depot in occupied Mariupol,.

Russian Supporting Effort: Southern Axis

Russian forces conducted an infiltration mission northwest of Hulyaipole. Ukrainian forces continue counterattacking in unspecified areas of the southern axis and previously advanced in northeastern Stepnohirsk,. Ukraine also conducted an extensive strike campaign against electrical substations in occupied Kherson and Crimea, hitting 13 substations overnight on July 28 to 29,,. Strikes also targeted a fast attack craft base near Mizhvodne and an S-300/S-400 air defense battery in Sevastopol,. These operations are constraining Russian naval movement, forcing cruise missile carriers to launch from harbors due to the drone threat,.

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign

On the night of July 28 to 29, Russia launched 80 drones (Shahed, Gerbera, Italmas, and others) from multiple directions. Ukrainian forces downed 65 drones, but 14 hit locations across seven oblasts, causing power outages,. Russian forces also conducted a double-tap strike against rescue workers in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and continue to target port and fuel infrastructure in the Black Sea,.

Significant Activity in Belarus

Belarus continues efforts to destabilize NATO and EU states by smuggling migrants. Lithuanian border guards recently discovered an incomplete tunnel running from Belarus, a tactic previously used for smuggling.