Based on the source provided, here is the full text of the article titled "The valuation U-turn bank investors missed" found on page 1 of the July 19, 2026, edition of The Hindu Businessline Portfolio:
The valuation U-turn bank investors missed
Large banks in low-growth developed economies trumped leaders in high-growth Indian economy
By Nishanth Gopakrishnan, bl. research bureau
India, as the fastest growing major economy, has had the weakest performing large private banks. Large private lenders — HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Axis Bank — have not only lost the race to PSU peers in terms of shareholding returns, but also to their global peers. These three banks have even trailed in a comparison of returns delivered by some of the world's largest lenders since December 31, 2019 (the pre-pandemic cut-off). In contrast, the Sensex has gained over 80 per cent over the same period.
The reason for this lacklustre returns appear to stem more from a valuation de-rating than in divergence in fundamentals. Among the banks compared, only the Indian lenders have seen valuation de-rating since December 2019. ICICI Bank’s 168 per cent core price appreciation, leading under a marginal de-rating for the bank trendline compared to Mahindra Bank’s valuation multiples have fallen by 40 per cent and HDFC has fallen by 25 per cent.
The analysis underscores the importance of entry multiples even if the underlying business continues to perform well.
WHAT GIVES
Before the pandemic, the said banks were showing mid-teens to 20 per cent loan growth which was much higher than the single-digit growth rates of global banks (readers should see this in the context of growth rates of their underlying advanced economies). Their stocks as such commanded premiums by investors.
On top of these, low global interest rates and high free float made the stocks favorites among FPIs in the pre-Covid era. Given India's expanding financial services market, investors expected these banks to sustain both strong growth and high return on equity (RoE) — a critical metric in bank valuation. December 2019 valuations reflected these expectations.
However, while the pandemic, despite solid loan growth, HDFC and Kotak were hit on the RoE front. HDFC’s earnings have grown at a CAGR of 19 per cent in five years (including profits from the merger), while Kotak’s earnings growth rate has fallen from 20 per cent to 14 per cent. Axis Bank's profits have improved to a CAGR of 56 per cent in FY20-24 from -22 per cent in FY17-20 but these profits have occurred in recent years have weighted on its valuation. ICICI Bank, on the other hand, has reported earnings CAGR at 34 per cent (FY20-24) relative to peers while reporting superior earnings per cent.
Their high free float has now become a headwind. With global interest rates on the rise and AI trade heating up, FPIs have offloaded a chunk of their stake. FII holding in HDFC, ICICI, Axis and Kotak have come off peaks of 52, 60, 52 and 45 per cent to 47, 53, 43 and 25 per cent now.
ENTRY PRICE
The picture is markedly different among largest banks in each of the advanced markets (the Americas, the British, European and Japanese banks considered for this analysis). Low entry valuations, combined with improving RoE, have translated into superior stock returns. Excluding JPMorgan Chase, each of these banks was at a multiple of the foreign banks stood at just 0.8x as of December 2019, reflecting investor pessimism.
Post-pandemic, however, growth has improved across the board. JPMorgan Chase, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, UBS Group and MUFG have all reported stronger growth in loans, earnings and RoE value, leading to higher RoE. The two Japanese banks and HSBC have reported record earnings, benefiting from both the lowest starting valuations and the sharpest reratings.
Other banks have also improved across one or more key metrics. Santander's loan growth remained muted, but its earnings CAGR rose from about 2 per cent in CY16-19 to 13 per cent in CY19-23. BNP Paribas' earnings CAGR improved from 2 per cent to 7 per cent.
Bottomline, the market has rewarded shareholders of those banks with multiple expansion where fundamentals have changed for the better. This trend is the reverse of the improvement, when fundamentals remain strong but valuations — a testament to the potential of value investing. Conversely, even tough in higher entry multiples, even if the fundamentals remained status quo, a miss of a few percentage points in RoE, has left investors with not so desirable returns — the case with the said Indian banks. Nevertheless, given the valuation fruit has been flushed out, it should be interesting to watch the trajectory of their stocks going forward.
Low entry multiples and RoE improvement explain healthy gains
| Bank | Returns since Dec 31, 2019 (%) | P/B on current core (x) | P/B in FY20 (x) | Net profit CAGR % pre-covid (FY17-19) | Net profit CAGR % post-covid (FY19-23) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUFG (JPN) | 486 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 11.3 |
| SMFG (JPN) | 399 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 7.6 | 10.4 |
| Deutsche Bank (EU) | 246 | 0.3 | 0.9 | -9.5 | 9.3 |
| UBS Group (EU) | 248 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 7.9 | 8.8 |
| Banco Santander (EU) | 171 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 13.9 |
| Barclays (UK) | 188 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 4.6 | 9.9 |
| ICICI Bank | 168 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 8.1 | 16.0 |
| HSBC Holdings (UK) | 152 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 22.2 |
| JPMorgan Chase (US) | 145 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 15.0 | 17.0 |
| BNP Paribas (EU) | 93 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 3.1 | 9.6 |
| Axis Bank | 75 | 2.5 | 1.6 | -7.5 | 12.1 |
| Bank of America (US) | 74 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 |
| Wells Fargo (US) | 63 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 10.1 | 10.6 |
| Citigroup (US) | 62 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 10.3 | 6.8 |
| HDFC Bank | 29 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 16.5 | 13.7 |
| Kotak Mahindra Bank | 16 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 13.7 | 11.4 |
Note: All figures pertain to consolidated financials. Core P/B reflects book value net of investment in subsidiaries. FY20 (ended March 31) for Indian banks; MUFG and SMFG; CY19 for the rest. FY24 for Indian banks, MUFG and SMFG; CY23 for the rest. Source: Company disclosures, Bloomberg.
From the source provided, here is the full text of the article titled "HDFC Bank CEO signals a push for growth; Q1 net profit up 5%" found on page 1 of the July 19, 2026, edition of The Hindu Businessline Portfolio:
HDFC Bank CEO signals a push for growth; Q1 net profit up 5%
By Our Bureau, Mumbai
HDFC Bank reported a 5 per cent year-on-year (YoY) rise in standalone net profit for the June quarter of FY27 at ₹19,060 crore, supported by higher net interest income and sharply lower provisions.
On the bank’s growth, the private sector bank had posted a net profit of ₹18,155 crore in the corresponding quarter last year. Adjusted for transaction gains from the partial divestment in HDB Financial Services' IPO, certain provisions and a tax credit in the year-ago quarter, the Q1 net profit was about 10 per cent higher.
On the bank’s growth outlook, Sashidhar Jagdishan, MD and CEO, said that the new bank distribution over the past five-six years would begin yielding benefits over the next couple of years. “On (advances), I think, given the pace of us expanding the pedal... Opportunity does exist, and there is a fair amount of buoyancy in what we are doing at this stage. The environment continues to be very healthy,” he noted.
FCNR(B) DEPOSITS
On mobilising fresh Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) [FCNR(B)] deposits under the RBI's concessional swap facility, the bank said it sees a significant opportunity. Sashidhar said the Bank has already raised about $750 million to provide leverage to NRIs for placing FCNR(B) deposits. It also plans to raise an additional $750-800 million to further leverage its best customers.
Responding to a question on Sashidhar’s reappointment, HDFC Bank Deputy Managing Director Kaizad M Bharucha said: “The new chairman has just taken over. The GNRC (Governance, Nomination and Remuneration Committee) and the board is seized of the matter. As soon as they conclude (the process), we will come out and inform all of you people and the exchanges as to the outcome of the exercise”.
During the quarter, the net interest income (NII) rose 7 per cent to ₹33,534 crore, from ₹31,438 crore a year ago. Provisions declined sharply by 79 per cent to ₹3,060 crore.
Moderate show (in ₹ cr)
| Item | Q1FY26 (N) | Q1FY27 | y-o-y % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net profit | 18,155 | 19,060 | 4.98 |
| Net interest income | 31,438 | 33,534 | 6.67 |
| Other income | 10,223 | 12,316 | 20.47 |
| Deposits | 27,64,089 | 31,70,830 | 14.71 |
| Advances | 26,25,434 | 30,37,103 | 15.55 |
| GNPA % | 1.4 | 1.17 | — |
| NNPA % | 0.47 | 0.41 | — |
(N) Adjusted for HDB divestment
From the sources provided, here is the full text of the article titled "Time is ticking for US oil reserves" found on page 2 of the July 19, 2026, edition of The Hindu Businessline Portfolio:
Time is ticking for US oil reserves
BUFFER WATCH. The market absorbed the first Hormuz disruption by drawing down inventories and tapping spare capacity. Those stockpiles are now thinner, leaving crude prices more vulnerable to another supply shock
By Akhil Nallamuthu, bl. research bureau
Geopolitical risk, the familiar catalyst, is sending crude oil prices higher again. The peace agreement between Israel and Iran, which was already regarded as a fragile one, came under the biggest strain yet on July 7, as both countries traded fresh rounds of attacks.
At first, it appeared like the crude trade had clearly bowled out the bulls. Their confidence that the surge in Dated Brent prices was temporary was reflected in the steep backwardation curve of Brent futures.
However, now, with Hormuz disruption back in play, the crude price could be on the rise again, it appears this time it’s different. The price behaviour within the crude complex is not the same as the surge in Brent of late.
When the Strait of Hormuz was closed in early March, as an initial reaction, Dated Brent, representing the physical crude oil prices for immediate delivery, surged 45 per cent, outperforming the Brent futures’ 36 per cent rise in the first ten days of the conflict. But since the recent escalation, so far, Brent futures have rallied 22 per cent, marginally outperforming Dated Brent, up 20 per cent.
Interestingly though, one important factor remained at elevated levels and never cooled: Crack Spread, which is the price difference between a barrel of raw crude oil and refined products made from it like gasoline, diesel etc. Even when the prices of both Dated Brent and Brent futures fell, post the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran on June 18, the crack spread did not correct much. In fact, post the re-escalation now, it surpassed the peak of $39.77/barrel it had hit early during the war and marked a fresh all-time high of $69.16/barrel on July 15.
Why has the crack spread stayed higher? What does the price behaviour of Dated Brent and Brent futures signal? What do both mean for the prices? Here’s an analysis.
THE BOTTLENECK
The 3-2-1 crack spread, a widely-used proxy for refinery gross margin, measures the difference between the value of refined products and the cost of crude oil. It assumes that three barrels of crude yield two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of distillate such as diesel, jet fuel or heating oil. The process of refining is also referred to as cracking, hence the name.
Unlike Brent futures and Dated Brent, the crack spread witnessed only a modest correction after the announcement of the US-Iran peace deal in June. While the spread declined 25 per cent from its peak, both Brent futures and Dated Brent slumped to a low in early July, losing by 41 per cent and 53 per cent respectively.
The latest escalation pushed the spread to a record high of $69.16/barrel on July 15. This comes even as crude oil prices are nowhere near the wartime record-highs despite the recent rally. At a per cent of Brent futures, the crack spread increased from 46 per cent to a substantial 86 per cent on July 6. It stands at 71 per cent now.
The divergence suggests that refined-product markets are considerably tighter than the crude market. More importantly, the tightness appears to be driven more by supply constraints rather than a surge in demand.
Part of the explanation lies in inventories. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), for the week ended July 3, distillate inventories were 12 per cent below the five-year average, while gasoline inventories were 6 per cent below the average.
Gasoline inventories were lower due to a combination of factors such as lower production, lower imports and higher exports. At the same time, refiners appear to have prioritised distillate as margins remained significantly stronger. The refining gross margin for distillate (also referred as distillate crack) currently stands at about $84/barrel compared to gasoline crack of $52/barrel.
The preference for distillates has coincided with disruptions to Russian refining operations. Ukraine’s attacks have affected more than a quarter of Russia’s refining capacity, and the refinery runs have slumped to a two-decade low. This curtailed supplies of diesel and other refined products. Russia has also imposed a temporary ban on diesel exports until July 31 and also restrictions on the export of gasoline and jet fuel.
Longer shipping routes following the disruption of traditional trade flows have added to distillate consumption, further tightening balances.
So, broadly, the bottleneck appeared to have shifted from crude oil supplies to refined product supplies. Consequently, refining margins have continued to strengthen even after the crude market shed much of its geopolitical risk premium. Recent re-escalation will only complicate things.
Going by all the above, the latest rally in crude oil prices appears to be driven more by precautionary risk premium than by signs of immediate physical shortage.
FEAR BUT NOT FRENZY
After the US attacked Iran for the first time in February, crude oil prices surged. Dated Brent, the benchmark for physical cargoes, rallied 104 per cent to hit a high of $144.46/barrel on April 7, while Brent futures gained 64 per cent to touch $119.50/barrel on March 9. Notably, futures peaked nearly a month before the physical benchmark.
The divergence reflected the scramble for prompt barrels — oil available immediately. Brent futures, on the other hand, quote oil for delivery at a future date.
With the Strait of Hormuz shut and uncertainty surrounding replacement supplies, buyers were willing to pay steep premiums for cargoes that were already available. Consequently, Dated Brent’s premium over Brent futures widened to a record $35.87/barrel on April 9.
Backwardation inching up again
Sept 2025 Vs Oct 2027 Brent futures spread ($/barrel) The same message was visible in the futures curve. Near term contracts significantly outperformed deferred contracts, pushing the market into steep backwardation.
Futures curve in backwardation means near-term oil contracts trade at a premium to the longer-dated ones. The spread between the front-month (September 2025) and the June 2027 Brent futures contract widened to a record $42.99/barrel on March 9.
The latest escalation has produced a different response. Since July 7, Brent futures have risen 22 per cent, whereas Dated Brent has gained 20 per cent. The spread between September 2025 and June 2027 contracts has also recovered only modestly to about $10/barrel, well below the levels seen during the peak of the Hormuz disruption.
The difference is because, earlier, prices were anchored by a genuine shortage of immediately available barrels. Today, prices appear to be anchored more by expectations than by physical scarcity.
That said, the current calm in the physical market is contingent on oil continuing to flow. And there lies the real risk.
THINNER CUSHION
The last time the Strait of Hormuz was shut, the oil market had a cushion. This time, that appears considerably thinner.
| What changed in the oil market | | | | :--- | :---: | :---: | | Metric | Then (first Hormuz closure) | Now | | US Total inventories | 872 mb | 726 mb | | US Strategic Petroleum Reserves | 415 mb | 316 mb | | Distillate inventories | 120 mb | 108 mb | | Gasoline inventories | 241 mb | 211 mb | | OECD (ex-US) total inventories | 1,543 mb | 1,303 mb* | | OPEC spare capacity | 3.43 mb/d | 0.44 mb/d | | Russian refinery throughput | 5.4 mb/d | 3.8 mb/d | *Q3 FY27 forecast. mb: million barrels; mb/d: million barrels per day.
Following the June 18 peace deal between the US and Iran, the US EIA lowered its Brent crude forecast for 2026 to $82/barrel from $95/barrel earlier and projected prices to average $65/barrel in 2027. But the outlook was based on the assumption that oil would continue flowing through Hormuz.
The first disruption was absorbed through a combination of factors such as inventories, strategic reserves, rerouted trade flows and weaker demand. EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) projects OECD commercial crude and liquids inventories (ex-US) to decline from 1,543 million barrels at the end of 2025 to 1,303 million barrels by the third quarter of 2026, a drawdown of 240 million barrels.
Moreover, EIA recently noted that inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, have approached levels near the “tank bottoms”. Since storage facilities require a minimum volume of oil to remain operational, not every barrel reported in inventories is necessarily available to the market.
The total inventory in the US, that includes Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) and commercial stocks, is already down by 145 million barrels to 726 million barrels between March 20, when SPR access began, and July 10. SPR dropped by 99 million barrels to 316 million barrels, while commercial stocks decreased by about 47 million to 410 million barrels.
Global oil consumption is estimated to decline by 1.2 million barrels/day this year, largely because of weaker demand in Asia. The slowdown in demand was another factor that helped absorb the first disruption.
At the same time, spare production capacity has shrunk sharply. The EIA estimates OPEC’s surplus production capacity at just 0.44 million barrels/day in 2026, down from 3.43 million barrels/day in 2025. Notable, spare capacity in West is estimated at zero from the second quarter through the rest of this year.
The EIA had expected inventories to begin rebuilding from the fourth quarter and spare capacity to recover in 2027. Instead, the market now faces another disruption.
The strain is already visible in fuel markets. According to the IEA (International Energy Agency), refinery global throughput in June was about 6 million barrels/day lower than a year ago as West Asian export refineries remained disrupted and Russian refinery runs were curtailed. Several Asian plants continue to operate below normal levels. Russian refinery output alone was about 1.6 million barrels/day lower than last year.
Recently, the IEA warned that the global economies have only a matter of weeks and not months before a prolonged disruption through Hormuz begins to cause significant economic damage.
STAKES ARE HIGH
In our Big Story, The 900-million barrel question in M.portfolio edition dated May 10, we had noted how from March 11 till then, cumulatively around 900-million barrels in crude oil supply was lost and that the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz was essential to prevent flare-ups in oil prices. Release from strategic reserves by some countries, lower imports by China, higher exports by the US and modest demand destruction had saved the day back then.
This time, it’s different. The latest escalation comes at a time when many of those buffers have weakened. OECD commercial crude and liquids inventories, a widely-followed proxy for global oil stockpiles, are projected to be down by 240 million barrels from 2025-end levels. In the US, the combined SPR and commercial inventories have already fallen by 145 million barrels since March 20. OPEC’s spare production capacity has also shrunk to 0.44 million barrels/day in 2026 from 3.43 million barrels/day in 2025, while refined-product markets remain exceptionally tight, as reflected in the record-high crack spread.
As risks are widening, Iran has threatened disruption through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another critical shipping route, while any recovery in Chinese crude imports could tighten balances further. For now, the market appears to be pricing a risk premium rather than an outright shortage. But if these risks materialise simultaneously, today’s premium could evolve into genuine physical scarcity. In this scenario, oil prices may not just revisit their earlier peak of $119.50/barrel, they could overshoot it sharply.
Based on the source provided, here is the full text of the article titled "Vikram-1 takes India’s private space sector to new orbit" from page 13 of the July 19, 2026, edition of The Hindu Businessline Portfolio:
Vikram-1 takes India’s private space sector to new orbit
By Rohan Das, Chennai
Even erratic weather conditions and last minute technical snags could not keep Skyroot Aerospace’s Vikram-1 grounded for long, as the rocket finally surged into the Saturday afternoon sky to become the first Indian privately-built launch vehicle to achieve full orbital flight, marking a milestone only the country’s state-owned space agency had achieved.
The seven-storey-tall rocket, built by Hyderabad-based space tech start-up Skyroot, lifted off from the first launch pad at Satish Dhawan Space Centre in Sriharikota. The command center witnessed a more different sight than usual with dozens of researchers and youngsters in their 20s and 30s nervously peering over their consoles.
SLIGHT DELAY
Some nervous moments due to minor software issues led to a 35-minute delay in launch time. But it was complete elation at 12.05 p.m. as Vikram-1 lifted off successfully.
Within minutes of lift-off, the mission captured the real-time in-flight performance data from every system on Vikram-1 — propulsion, stage separation, guidance, navigation, communication and ground system performance. After lift-off, the mission unfolded in three stages. The first two flew by in under two minutes as the rocket powered through the lower atmosphere and entered space where it shed its protective fairings. The third stage was slower and more precise, providing the final push needed to fire before the Orbital Adjustment Module in six tense minutes placed the payload into its intended orbit.
While the key objective of the launch was to validate systems in Vikram-1, the rocket also carried some technology demonstration payloads from companies like Space Kidz India, Pixxel, and Dhruva Space.
SMALL TALISMAN
Hidden inside the nose cone was a lab-grown diamond from Cosmos Diamonds, a miniature piece of some of India’s space legends including Vikram Sarabhai, APJ Abdul Kalam and CV Raman and letters from individuals including PM Narendra Modi.
Speaking at the post-launch press conference, Pawan Kumar Chandana, Co-founder and CEO, Skyroot Aerospace, called it a historic moment not just for Skyroot but the global space sector. “The world needs more access to space and the world has a new launch vehicle. From building and launching it to orbit in the first attempt is a proud moment for us,” he said.
Co-founder and COO Naga Bharath Daka said the company is now working on its next launch scheduled for later this year. The rocket is powered by an all-carbon composite structure and high-performance 3D-printed propulsion systems, including 3D-printed engines and high-thrust solid fuel boosters.
From the source provided, here is the full text of the article titled "2024 National Awards: ‘Article 370’ named best film; Mammootty, Kartik Aaryan, Yami Gautam best actors" found on page 13 of the July 19, 2026, edition of The Hindu Businessline Portfolio:
2024 National Awards: ‘Article 370’ named best film; Mammootty, Kartik Aaryan, Yami Gautam best actors
By Our Bureau, New Delhi
Hindi film Article 370 was named the Best Feature Film of the 72nd National Film Awards for 2024. The awards were announced on Saturday.
Malayalam superstar Mammootty for Bramayugam and Kartik Aaryan for Hindi film Chandu Champion shared the Best Actor in a Leading Role award. Yami Gautam was declared the Best Actress in a Leading Role award for Article 370.
Randeep Hooda won the Best Debut Director award for Swatantrya Veer Savarkar.
The blockbuster movie, Kalki 2898 AD bagged awards for Best Popular Film Providing Wholesome Entertainment and Best Production Design categories.
Rajkumar Periasamy won the Best Director award for Tamil film Amaran, which also won the Best Editing award and shared the Best Music Direction award with Article 370.
Pushpa: The Rule Part-02 won the Best Costume Design award and shared the Best Screenplay award with Marathi film Swargandharva Sudhir Phadke and Telugu flick Lucky Baskhar.
Tamil flick Captain Miller was named the Best Feature Film Promoting National, Social and Environmental values while Telugu flick Chinnu Katha Kaadu bagged the Best Children’s Film award.
Bhangaar won the award for best non-feature film, while Ravi-Nami was named the Best Documentary.
Baayon was named as the best Tamil film, Mithya as the best Kannada film, Committee Kurrulu was named the best Telugu film and Ponniyin Selvan-II as the best Malayalam film in the language categories.
Based on the sources provided, here is the full text of the article titled "Poised to rise" from the "Chart-Gazing" section on page 8 of the July 19, 2026, edition of The Hindu Businessline Portfolio:
Poised to rise
INDEX OUTLOOK. The price action last week indicates lack of strong sellers in the market
By Gurumurthy K, bl. research bureau
Nifty 50, Sensex and the Nifty Bank index moved in a narrow range until Thursday. However, on Friday, the trend was very much intact. The market indices witnessed a strong rise. The movement last week indicates a lack of strong sellers in the market. That keeps our overall bullish view intact. We expect the Nifty and Sensex to breach their upcoming resistance and go higher in the coming weeks.
Nifty Bank index, on the other hand, is struggling to move higher. We expect the index to make a bullish breakout of its range and move up, going forward.
FPIs SELL
FPIs were selling for four consecutive weeks, the foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were net sellers of Indian equities last week — they sold about $356 million in the cash segment.
NIFTY 50 (24,334.30)
Short-term view: Nifty managed to sustain very well above 24,000 all through last week. The trend remains up. Immediate resistances are at 24,400 and 24,500. We expect the Nifty to break 24,500 and rise to 24,800 or even 24,950 in the short term.
After this rise, a corrective dip to 24,500-24,400 is possible. A fresh leg of rally thereafter can take the Nifty up to 25,500 and higher.
Supports are at 24,000 and 23,800. The Nifty has to fall below 23,800 to become negative for a fall to 23,000. But that looks less likely.
Medium-term view: Nifty is attempting to go up within its broader range of 23,000-25,000. A break above 24,950 can trigger a fresh rally to 26,000-26,500.
The bias remains positive. Nifty can make a bullish breakout above 25,000 and then rise towards 28,000 and even 30,000 in the coming months.
This bullish view will get negated only if the index declines below 22,000. That looks less likely at the moment.
NIFTY BANK (58,521.40)
Short-term view: The index has risen well within its 56,500-58,900 range. We need to touch the long-awaited bullish breakout above 58,900. It can happen now or not. Such a break can take the Nifty Bank index higher to 60,500 and 61,500.
A break below 56,500 is needed to turn the short-term view negative. If that happens, a fall to 55,000 or 54,000 is possible.
Medium-term view: The broader picture remains positive. Nifty Bank index is likely to breach the key resistance level of 61,500. That will clear the way for a rally to 65,000 in the medium term. It will also keep the doors open to target 68,000-69,000 in the long term.
SENSEX (78,131.45)
Short-term view: After getting support in the 77,000-78,000 region, Sensex has risen well towards the end of the week. Resistance is in the 78,800-79,000 region, which can be tested this week. We expect the Sensex to breach 79,000 for a rise to 81,000-81,500 in the short term.
Failure to breach 79,000 can drag the index down to 78,000 again. The level of 76,000 is a strong support. The short-term outlook will turn negative only if the index declines below 76,000.
Medium-term view: The broader range of 71,000-86,000 remains intact. Sensex is likely to go up towards 86,000, the upper end of the range, in the medium term. A break above 81,500 can trigger this rise.
Eventually, a bullish breakout above 86,000 is likely to be seen in the coming months. Such a break will trigger a fresh rally to 90,000 and even 94,000 in the long term.
NIFTY MIDCAP 150 (22,967.90)
The resistance at 23,300 has held well. The Nifty Midcap 150 index has come down after touching a high of 23,239.65. A fall to 22,750 looks likely this week. A bounce thereafter can take the index higher to 23,000-23,300 again. But a break below 22,750 can drag the index down to 22,550.
We retain our overall bullish bias. So, eventually, we expect to see a bullish breakout above 23,300. Such a break can take the Nifty Midcap 150 index higher to 26,000-26,500 initially in the medium term. It also opens the doors for the index to target 28,300-28,500 in the long term.
The above-mentioned rise will get negated if the index breaks below 22,550 from here. If that happens, a fall to 22,000-21,800 and even lower can be seen.
From a big picture perspective, 21,000-20,800 is a crucial support area for the Nifty Midcap 150 index. Our bullish view will get completely negated only if the index declines below 20,800. That looks less likely for now.
NIFTY SMALLCAP 250 (18,051.80)
The price action last week indicates lack of strong follow-through to take the index above 18,200. Immediate support is at 17,900. A break below it can drag the Nifty Smallcap 250 index down to 17,500-17,400 initially. It can even go down to 17,000-16,800 to bounce back thereafter, then rise to a 18,000-18,200 can be seen again. In that case, 17,500-18,200 could be the trading range for some time.
From a big-picture view, our overall bullish bias intact. An eventual break above 18,300 can boost the momentum. It can then take the Nifty Smallcap 250 index up to 21,000-22,000 in the medium term and 24,000-25,000 in the long term.
If the index breaks below 17,000 from here, an extended fall to 17,300 and even lower levels can be seen. In that case, an eventual bullish rise above 18,300 will get delayed.
SHORT-TERM TARGETS
- Nifty: 24,400, 24,500
- Sensex: 81,000, 81,500
- Nifty Bank: 60,500, 61,500
Based on the sources provided, here is the full text of the article titled "Struggling to move up" from the "Chart-Gazing" section on page 8 of the July 19, 2026, edition of The Hindu Businessline Portfolio:
Struggling to move up
US MARKET OUTLOOK. Absence of a follow-through rise is a negative
By Gurumurthy K, bl. research bureau
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for the second consecutive week. The index was down 0.93 per cent for the week. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite index, on the other hand, snapped their two-week rise. The indices fell 1.55 per cent and 2.90 per cent respectively. The recent price action indicates that the US benchmark indices are struggling to rise. This signals the absence of fresh buyers in the market. We suggest remaining cautious at the moment rather than being overly bullish on the US markets.
DOW JONES (52,151.22)
The index is struggling to rise and remains strong as long as it is at 52,000. A break below it can drag the index down to 51,700-51,650, the next key support area. Resistance is at 53,200. A break above it can take the Dow Jones up to 54,000 and higher levels.
But a break below 51,650 can increase the selling pressure. It will also indicate that a top is in place. In that case, 51,000 can be seen first. It will also keep the downside open to see 50,000-49,000 eventually in the coming weeks.
S&P 500 (7,457.70)
The resistance at 7,600 continues to cap the upside. The index hovered around 7,550 for major part of the week and fell sharply on Friday. Key supports are at 7,430 and 7,400. A decisive break below 7,400 will be bearish, triggering a potential fall to 7,200-7,100.
If the index manages to sustain above 7,400, it can rise back to 7,600. A breakout above 7,600 will be bullish. That can strengthen the bullish case for a rise to 7,800. The price action in the coming week will be key. We need a close watch this week.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE (25,820.24)
The Nasdaq Composite index failed to get a strong follow-through rise last week. A strong resistance is at 26,000. That leaves the bias negative. Key support is at 25,500. A break below it can drag the Nasdaq Composite index down to 24,500 and even 24,000 in the coming weeks.
The region between 26,000 and 26,500 is a key resistance. A sustained rise above 26,500 is needed to take the index higher towards 28,000.
DOLLAR OUTLOOK
The dollar index (100.75) declined below the support at 100.86, but has stayed within it. The index has risen back from the low of 100.38. The immediate outlook is slightly unclear. Strong resistance is in the 101.30-101.40 region. As long as the index stays below the 101.10-101.20 resistance zone, the near-term bias will remain negative. A fall to 100.20-100 is possible in that case.
The dollar index has to breach 101.40 to gain fresh bullish momentum. Only then the upside will open up for a rise to 103. Such a rise will keep the doors open for the dollar index to see 105-106 in the medium term.
TREASURY YIELD
The US 10-Yr Treasury Yield has come off after touching a high of 4.64 per cent last week. The broader picture remains positive for back up and build up to 4.8 per cent. Below that, 4.4 per cent is a strong support. As long as the yield stays above 4.4 per cent, the outlook is bullish for a rise to 4.8 per cent. A break above 4.8 per cent, however, a fall beyond 4.4 per cent is not possible.
As long as the yield stays above 4.4 per cent, the outlook will remain bullish. A reversal either from here or after a dip to 4.4 per cent can take the 10-year yield up to 4.6 per cent again. A break above 4.8 per cent then can take the US 10Yr Treasury Yield up to 5.2 per cent in the medium term.
A decisive break below 4.4 per cent is needed to negate this bullish view.
KEY RESISTANCE: The dollar index has to breach the 101-101.20 resistance to gain strength and rise towards 103.
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