Iran Update: Escalation in Jordan and the Strait of Hormuz

 

Iran Update Special Report, July 29, 2026

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute are publishing daily updates to provide analysis on the war with Iran. These updates cover events from the past 24-hour period; however, the ISW-CTP has revised its structure due to the resumption of war between the United States and Iran. Iran is currently engaged in an information effort to frame its attacks as retaliatory and defensive, but it is actually conducting proactive military operations to achieve discrete objectives.

Key Takeaways

1. The Iranian regime likely launched a “surprise attack” on US forces in Jordan on July 28 to erode the United States’ willingness to undermine efforts to achieve Iranian war aims, such as securing control over the Strait of Hormuz. The regime likely calculated it could degrade US resolve by inflicting casualties during the current “pause” in strikes.
2. The IRGC Aerospace Force conducted the Jordan attack, though it is unclear if there was consensus among all regime factions. IRGC Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi almost certainly supported the decision, and even the pro-negotiations camp may have backed it as they share the same strategic objectives regarding the strait and the US regional presence.
3. The attack was likely intended to signal Iran's willingness to risk full-scale conflict to secure control over the Strait of Hormuz.
4. The US and Saudi Arabia conducted retaliatory strikes on July 28 against Iranian-backed Iraqi militia weapons and logistics sites across Iraq.
5. US and Saudi strikes also targeted sites along the Iran-Iraq border used for the Arbaeen pilgrimage, which Iran intended to use to move weapons and advisers into Iraq.
6. These strikes reportedly killed at least four IRGC Quds Force officers in Diyala Province, highlighting the IRGC's role in overseeing militia attacks.
7. Iran is working to bolster its air defense with assistance from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and is improving its drone capabilities.
8. The Houthis are threatening to expand attacks on Saudi targets to coerce an end to the blockade of their ports and may begin imposing fees on vessels transiting the Red Sea.
9. An unspecified actor launched a drone attack targeting a US-owned tanker at a Mediterranean port in Damietta, Egypt, on July 29.

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Toplines

The Attack in Jordan and the Strait of Hormuz The July 28 “surprise attack” involved multiple ballistic missiles launched by the IRGC at Muwaffaq Salti Airbase in Jordan. While the Jordanian Army intercepted five missiles, the attack ended a four-day pause in fighting that the US had initiated to restart talks. IRGC-affiliated media claimed this demonstrates that Iran maintains the “initiative” in the war.

Shortly before the attack, Iran rejected an Omani proposal for regional management of the Strait of Hormuz, calling it “unrealistic”. Iranian officials, including Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, stated that Iran would take any action—including war—to ensure sovereignty over the strait. The IRGC Navy has already claimed strikes on three tankers transiting the strait against their warnings.

Internal Iranian Regime Dynamics While the IRGC Aerospace Force claimed the Jordan attack was a response to US “aggressive actions,” ISW-CTP observes diverging views on the means to achieve war aims. Major General Vahidi, who plays an outsized role in decision-making, has frequently overruled more moderate figures like President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Vahidi’s faction appears to be actively undermining negotiations to renew the ceasefire. However, the pro-negotiations faction still seeks the same ends—Iranian control of the strait and the removal of US forces—but prefers negotiations as the primary tool.

US and Saudi Military Operations in Iraq Retaliatory strikes on July 28 targeted Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) bases across seven Iraqi provinces, killing at least 20 members. Targeted units included the Badr Organization and Kataib Imam al Ali, which have provided logistical support for attacks on US interests. Strikes also hit Arbaeen pilgrimage-related sites, including a guesthouse in Karbala and the PMF Basra Operations Command. Saudi media reports that IRGC Quds Force officers directly oversaw recent militia attacks, utilizing specific cells created to maintain plausible deniability.

Houthi Escalation The Houthis are planning to expand their blockade of Saudi Arabia by attacking oil pipelines and ports to raise the economic costs of the Saudi-led blockade on Houthi-controlled areas. These threats also serve Iranian strategic objectives by wearing down Saudi willingness to oppose Iranian demands in the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, the Houthis are considering establishing a regulatory authority to charge fees for vessels transiting the Bab al Mandeb. Reports indicate the PRC has already held direct negotiations with the Houthis to secure safe passage for its own vessels.

Iranian Air Defense and Drones Iran has reportedly signed a deal through a Hong Kong company to purchase 300 to 400 PRC-made MANPADS (including QW-12, QW-18, and QW-19 models). This follows previous purchases of Russian systems. Additionally, Iran has developed a new version of the Hadid 110 drone, featuring a jet engine and solid fuel booster for higher speed and greater stealth to counter US air defenses.

Tanker Attack in Egypt On July 29, a drone struck the US-owned gas storage tanker Energos Winter at Damietta Port, causing a fire that spread to a second vessel. While no one has claimed responsibility, pro-Iranian channels had previously identified the port as a potential target in retaliation for a Ukrainian attack on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea.

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Assessed Iranian War Aims

• Secure international recognition of Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.
• Degrade the US ability and willingness to continue the war.
• Restore deterrence vis-à-vis the United States and its regional partners.
• Divide the United States and Israel from the Arab states.

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Regional Updates

Lebanon Hezbollah conducted its first drone strike in southern Lebanon since June 18, targeting an IDF engineering vehicle near the Ali al Taher tunnel complex. The IDF, which recently took control of the surrounding territory, pledged to respond and expand operations if necessary. While international leaders have urged Hezbollah not to restart kinetic activity, the group has not yet received direction from Iran on how to proceed.

Iraq Iranian-backed militias, including Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada and Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, have condemned the US-Saudi strikes as violations of sovereignty and threatened retaliation.

Arabian Peninsula The Houthis claimed to shoot down a Saudi-operated Vestel Karayel drone over Saada Governorate. Additionally, the Houthis have reportedly established a new operational headquarters in Jurf al Sakhr, Iraq, to coordinate with Iraqi militias. This location, which was struck by US and Saudi forces on July 29, may support Houthi drone attacks launched against Saudi Arabia from Iraqi territory.