El Nino impact on Crop growth

 

The latest forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicate that El Niño is expected to strengthen through the second half of 2026, peak around November 2026–January 2027, and gradually weaken during spring 2027, although the exact strength and timing remain uncertain. NOAA currently assigns a high probability that El Niño persists into early 2027, with a meaningful chance of becoming a very strong event. (Climate Prediction Center)

Expected evolution (2026–2027)

Period	Expected ENSO stage	Likely agricultural impact
Q2 2026	El Niño develops	Initial changes in rainfall over the Pacific
Q3 2026	Moderate to strong	Indian monsoon risk increases; Australia becomes drier
Q4 2026	Peak intensity	Maximum impact on global agriculture
Q1 2027	Strong but weakening	Crop stress continues in many tropical regions
Q2 2027	Transition toward neutral	Weather impacts gradually diminish

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El Niño does not physically travel

One common misconception is that El Niño moves around the globe.

Instead:

• The warm ocean water develops in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

• This shifts tropical rainfall eastward.

• The atmospheric circulation (Walker Circulation) changes.

• Those atmospheric changes alter rainfall and temperatures across much of the world.

The warm-water anomaly remains largely confined to the tropical Pacific, while the weather impacts spread globally through atmospheric teleconnections. (Climate.gov)

Approximate timeline

Apr-Jun 2026
Western Pacific → Central Pacific warming

Jul-Sep 2026
Warm pool expands eastward

Oct-Dec 2026
Maximum warming reaches Eastern Pacific
(Global impacts strongest)

Jan-Mar 2027
Warm anomaly slowly weakens

Apr-Jun 2027
Return toward ENSO-neutral

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Regional crop impacts

Region	Rainfall	Main crops	Expected impact
India	↓	Rice, pulses, sugarcane	Lower yields if monsoon weakens
Southeast Asia	↓	Palm oil, rice	Production declines
Australia	↓↓↓	Wheat, barley, canola	Significant drought risk
Indonesia	↓↓↓	Palm oil, rubber	Lower output and wildfire risk
Brazil (South)	↑	Soybeans, corn	Better yields locally
Brazil (North)	↓	Coffee	Moisture stress
Argentina	↑	Soybeans, maize	Improved growing conditions
United States (Midwest)	Mixed	Corn, soybeans	Variable impacts depending on season
Southern Africa	↓	Maize	Elevated drought risk
East Africa	↑	Maize	Increased flood risk in some areas
Peru & Ecuador	↑↑	Bananas, cocoa	Flood damage risk

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Commodities most exposed

Potential winners

• Wheat (North America, Black Sea)

• Soybeans (Argentina)

• Brazilian southern corn

Potential losers

• Rice (India, Thailand)

• Palm oil (Indonesia, Malaysia)

• Sugar (India, Thailand)

• Coffee (Brazil, Vietnam)

• Cocoa (parts of West Africa and Ecuador)

• Cotton (India, Australia)

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India

The greatest concern for India is the Southwest Monsoon (June–September).

Expected impacts include:

• Reduced rainfall over central and northwestern India

• Lower reservoir inflows

• Higher irrigation demand

• Heat stress during flowering for many crops

• Reduced rice, pulses, sugarcane, cotton and soybean yields if rainfall deficits persist

Not every El Niño produces a weak monsoon, but it increases the probability of below-normal rainfall rather than guaranteeing it. (ResearchGate)

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Global risk ranking (2026–2027)

Commodity	Risk
Palm oil	🔴 Very High
Rice	🔴 Very High
Sugar	🔴 Very High
Coffee	🔴 Very High
Cocoa	🔴 Very High
Cotton	🟠 High
Corn	🟡 Moderate
Soybeans	🟡 Moderate
Wheat	🟡 Moderate

The combination of a potentially strong El Niño and an already warmer global climate means that weather extremes—including droughts, heatwaves, and intense rainfall—could be amplified compared with many historical El Niño events. (reuters.com)