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Friday, July 31, 2026

El Nino impact on Crop growth

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The latest forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicate that El Niño is expected to strengthen through the second half of 2026, peak around November 2026–January 2027, and gradually weaken during spring 2027, although the exact strength and timing remain uncertain. NOAA currently assigns a high probability that El Niño persists into early 2027, with a meaningful chance of becoming a very strong event. (Climate Prediction Center)

Expected evolution (2026–2027)

PeriodExpected ENSO stageLikely agricultural impact
Q2 2026El Niño developsInitial changes in rainfall over the Pacific
Q3 2026Moderate to strongIndian monsoon risk increases; Australia becomes drier
Q4 2026Peak intensityMaximum impact on global agriculture
Q1 2027Strong but weakeningCrop stress continues in many tropical regions
Q2 2027Transition toward neutralWeather impacts gradually diminish

El Niño does not physically travel

One common misconception is that El Niño moves around the globe.

Instead:

  • The warm ocean water develops in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

  • This shifts tropical rainfall eastward.

  • The atmospheric circulation (Walker Circulation) changes.

  • Those atmospheric changes alter rainfall and temperatures across much of the world.

The warm-water anomaly remains largely confined to the tropical Pacific, while the weather impacts spread globally through atmospheric teleconnections. (Climate.gov)

Approximate timeline

Apr-Jun 2026
Western Pacific → Central Pacific warming

Jul-Sep 2026
Warm pool expands eastward

Oct-Dec 2026
Maximum warming reaches Eastern Pacific
(Global impacts strongest)

Jan-Mar 2027
Warm anomaly slowly weakens

Apr-Jun 2027
Return toward ENSO-neutral

Regional crop impacts

RegionRainfallMain cropsExpected impact
IndiaRice, pulses, sugarcaneLower yields if monsoon weakens
Southeast AsiaPalm oil, riceProduction declines
Australia↓↓↓Wheat, barley, canolaSignificant drought risk
Indonesia↓↓↓Palm oil, rubberLower output and wildfire risk
Brazil (South)Soybeans, cornBetter yields locally
Brazil (North)CoffeeMoisture stress
ArgentinaSoybeans, maizeImproved growing conditions
United States (Midwest)MixedCorn, soybeansVariable impacts depending on season
Southern AfricaMaizeElevated drought risk
East AfricaMaizeIncreased flood risk in some areas
Peru & Ecuador↑↑Bananas, cocoaFlood damage risk

Commodities most exposed

Potential winners

  • Wheat (North America, Black Sea)

  • Soybeans (Argentina)

  • Brazilian southern corn

Potential losers

  • Rice (India, Thailand)

  • Palm oil (Indonesia, Malaysia)

  • Sugar (India, Thailand)

  • Coffee (Brazil, Vietnam)

  • Cocoa (parts of West Africa and Ecuador)

  • Cotton (India, Australia)


India

The greatest concern for India is the Southwest Monsoon (June–September).

Expected impacts include:

  • Reduced rainfall over central and northwestern India

  • Lower reservoir inflows

  • Higher irrigation demand

  • Heat stress during flowering for many crops

  • Reduced rice, pulses, sugarcane, cotton and soybean yields if rainfall deficits persist

Not every El Niño produces a weak monsoon, but it increases the probability of below-normal rainfall rather than guaranteeing it. (ResearchGate)


Global risk ranking (2026–2027)

CommodityRisk
Palm oil🔴 Very High
Rice🔴 Very High
Sugar🔴 Very High
Coffee🔴 Very High
Cocoa🔴 Very High
Cotton🟠 High
Corn🟡 Moderate
Soybeans🟡 Moderate
Wheat🟡 Moderate

The combination of a potentially strong El Niño and an already warmer global climate means that weather extremes—including droughts, heatwaves, and intense rainfall—could be amplified compared with many historical El Niño events. (reuters.com)

Does Indian Techies own more than 150bn$ in ESOPs

 A bottom-up estimate suggests that US$150 billion is plausible, but only if you include:

  1. Employees of U.S. multinational companies in India holding RSUs.

  2. Employees of Indian startups holding valuable ESOPs.

  3. Former employees who have retained vested shares over many years.

A figure based only on current U.S. multinational employees is likely lower.

Step 1: Estimate the number of employees receiving meaningful equity

Approximate India headcount at major U.S. technology companies:

CompanyIndia employeesEstimated % receiving meaningful RSUsRSU holders
Microsoft25,00095%24,000
Amazon110,000 (corporate + tech)35%38,000
Google12,00095%11,000
NVIDIA6,000100%6,000
Intel15,00095%14,000
Cisco15,00095%14,000
Adobe8,000100%8,000
Salesforce13,000100%13,000
Apple5,000100%5,000
Oracle40,00060%24,000
Others (AMD, Qualcomm, ServiceNow, Uber, Atlassian, etc.)~70,000

Estimated RSU holders: ~227,000 employees

This is broadly consistent with the concentration of equity compensation among multinational technology firms in Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Pune, and Gurgaon. (NDTV Profit)

Step 2: Estimate average vested equity

A representative distribution might look like this:

LevelShare of employeesAverage vested stock
Early career40%US$80,000
Mid-level35%US$250,000
Senior20%US$700,000
Director/VP5%US$3,000,000

Weighted average:

  • 0.40 × 80k = 32k

  • 0.35 × 250k = 87.5k

  • 0.20 × 700k = 140k

  • 0.05 × 3m = 150k

Average per employee ≈ US$410,000

Step 3: Total U.S. multinational equity

227,000 employees × US$410,000

US$93 billion

Step 4: Add Indian startup ESOP wealth

India has produced dozens of unicorns and listed technology companies. Founders, early engineers, and senior executives have accumulated substantial ESOP wealth, although much of it remains illiquid. Public reporting shows ongoing ESOP buybacks and liquidity events, but annual realized values are only a fraction of total paper wealth. (Inc42)

A reasonable estimate:

  • Startup ESOP wealth:

    • Conservative: US$20 billion

    • Base case: US$35 billion

    • Optimistic: US$50 billion

Step 5: Former employees

One important category is often overlooked.

Many employees who left companies such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, NVIDIA, Adobe, or Salesforce still own vested shares accumulated over 10–20 years. They no longer appear in employee counts but continue to own U.S.-listed stock.

Estimated value:

  • US$20–40 billion

Putting it together

CategoryConservativeBaseOptimistic
Current U.S. MNC RSUs8093110
Indian startup ESOPs203550
Former employees203040
Total (US$ bn)120158200

Conclusion

The base-case estimate of approximately US$158 billion aligns remarkably well with Saurabh Mukherjea's US$150 billion figure. (NDTV Profit)

The estimate is credible if it includes:

  • vested RSUs held by current employees of U.S. multinationals,

  • retained holdings of former employees,

  • and valuable ESOPs from Indian startups.

If it referred only to current employees of U.S. technology companies, the figure would likely be closer to US$90–110 billion.

The largest contributors to this wealth are likely employees of Microsoft, Amazon, Google, NVIDIA, Adobe, Salesforce, Intel, Cisco, Oracle, and other global technology firms with significant engineering operations in India.

India Russian Oil Imports

 Below is an estimate of India's imports of Russian crude oil over the past 12 months, converted into million barrels per month. These figures are derived from Kpler/LSEG ship-tracking data reported by Reuters and other industry sources. Where only barrels-per-day (bpd) data were available, I multiplied by the number of days in the month.

MonthAvg. Imports (million bpd)Approx. Monthly Imports (million barrels)
Aug 20251.4344.3
Sep 20251.4443.2
Oct 20251.4845.9 (Reuters)
Nov 20251.8655.7 (provisional) (Reuters)
Dec 20251.1435.3 (Sputnik News)
Jan 2026~1.1034.1 (Kpler)
Feb 2026~1.2033.6 (CREA)
Mar 2026~1.2538.8 (Kpler)
Apr 2026~1.7552.5
May 20262.1366.0 (Reuters)
Jun 20262.64–2.7079–81 (Reuters)
Jul 2026*~2.6–2.8 (estimated)~81–87 (Reuters)

*July 2026 is an estimate based on vessel-tracking and provisional shipping data because the month has only just ended.

Key observations

  • Late 2025: Imports weakened significantly after new U.S. sanctions and logistical disruptions, falling to roughly 35 million barrels in December, the lowest level in several months. (The Times of India)

  • Early 2026: Imports remained subdued at around 1.1–1.3 million bpd as refiners adjusted procurement strategies. (Kpler)

  • Q2 2026: Imports surged sharply as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, prompted Indian refiners to increase purchases of Russian crude. June reached a record of approximately 2.6–2.7 million bpd, or about 80 million barrels for the month. (Reuters)

This represents an increase of well over 100% from the lows seen in late 2025, making Russia once again India's dominant crude supplier.

Newspaper Summary 010826

 The article titled "Capex surges over 23% in Q1" from the August 1, 2026, edition is reproduced below:


Capex surges over 23% in Q1

SPENDING SPURT. Fiscal deficit stands at over 18.2 per cent of the annual budget target

Shishir Sinha New Delhi

Capital expenditure showed a strong growth of over 23 per cent during the April-June quarter of the current fiscal, data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) showed. Also, revenue receipt growth was nearly 11 per cent, which helped the fiscal deficit to stay around 18 per cent.

The deficit, as a percentage of the annual estimate prescribed in the Budget, reached 18.2 per cent in the first quarter, slightly higher than 17.9 per cent in the last fiscal. The Centre has set a fiscal deficit target of 4.3 per cent of the GDP or ₹16.96 lakh crore in the current fiscal.

In absolute terms, the fiscal deficit, which is the difference between total expenditure and revenue, was ₹3.08 lakh crore in the April-June period of FY27.

According to the CGA, the Centre’s net tax revenue was ₹6.36 lakh crore, or 22.2 per cent of the corresponding BE 2026-27 of total receipts, up to June 2026. In the corresponding period of the previous fiscal, the net tax revenue was at 19 per cent of that year’s BE. The data on the monthly accounts showed that the total expenditure during the first quarter was at ₹13.57 lakh crore, or 25.4 per cent of BE. In the year-ago period, it was at 24.1 per cent of BE.

According to DK Srivastava, Chief Policy Advisor, EY India, CGA’s fiscal data for the first quarter of 2026-27 show relatively buoyant performance of direct taxes, especially the corporate income tax which shows a growth of 19.7 per cent. In contrast, GST revenues continue to show contraction at (-) 1.1 per cent as a result of which indirect taxes contracted by 3.7 per cent. Total net tax revenues show a growth of 20.8 per cent.

“This implies a contraction in the assignment of Central taxes to the States to the extent of (-) 19.5 per cent in 1Q 2026-27," Srivastava said. "Centre’s net tax revenues supplemented by non-tax revenues which contributed 37 per cent of Centre’s net revenue receipts enabled the Centre to maintain a strong growth in expenditure in the first quarter showing a growth of 25.7 per cent while limiting the first quarter fiscal deficit to 18.2 per cent of the annual budgeted target”.

WAR IMPACT

Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist at Bank of Baroda, feels that the balances are under control. This is significant because Q1 was the time when there was major disruption on account of the war where there was additional pressure on both the fertilizer subsidy front as well as tax revenues as the excise duty was lowered on fuel.

“Depending on how the war pans out and crude oil prices, it does look like that the expenditure on revenue account could be higher and in case capex is maintained, there can be pressure on the fiscal deficit ratio," Sabnavis said. "In the Union Budget, there can be a slippage of 0.3-0.4 per cent of GDP. Higher growth in GDP will provide statistical cushion, however”.


The article titled "India left out of Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index" from the August 1, 2026, edition is reproduced below:


India left out of Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index

STEEP DROP. Meanwhile, FPI flows via FAR fell 85% to $322 m in July vs $2.27 b in June

Our Bureau Mumbai

India’s much-anticipated entry into the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index has been put on hold, with Bloomberg Index Services Ltd (BISL) deciding not to include Indian government bonds at this stage and continuing its review process.

This decision means India will have to wait longer for credible inclusion in one of the world's most widely tracked bond benchmarks, despite the initial optimism that the inclusion of the world’s fifth largest economy’s bond market is moving closer to meeting market expectations. Bloomberg acknowledged that there has been meaningful progress in recent years in improving accessibility for investors but adding that the country’s bond market is still evolving.

The exclusion is a disappointment as markets were expecting the inclusion to come after the government’s efforts to solve issues regarding holding tax and capital gains tax, which addressed an important part of the tax-compliance burden for foreign investors.

“Bloomberg’s decision is a disappointment, especially given the government’s efforts,” said Gaura Sen Gupta, chief economist, IDFC First Bank. “Bloomberg appears to believe that some operational and market-access challenges remain and wants to see recent reforms become more firmly established before taking a final call,” she added, stating that the inclusion in the Bloomberg Index would have seen passive inflows of around $25 billion in FY28.

Meanwhile, foreign portfolio investment (FPI) via fully accessible route (FAR) has shown a sharp upside in July after a bumper flow in June following the lower spread between US and Indian yield.

FPI SLOWDOWN

In July, FPI flows via FAR slipped 85 per cent to $322 million, compared to $2.27 billion in June 2026. However, for the seven months from January to July, the FPI inflow recorded a 6.2 per cent jump to $4.2 billion compared to $3.96 billion in the same period last year.

“Bloomberg announcement is likely to trigger a profit-taking sentiment. We could see some outflows from the FAR and bond yields may open higher on Monday as part of the optimism around index inclusion gets unwound,” added Sengupta.

While Bloomberg recognition remains elusive, India’s progress through expanded electronic bond trading and the removal of key taxes for foreign investors has improved market accessibility and efficiency. It also pointed out that global investors want these reforms to be more firmly established in practice before index inclusion.

ONGOING REVIEW

Concerns remain around the full rollout of automated trading across key regions and the need for smoother account-opening and on-boarding processes for foreign investors.

That said, Bloomberg has not closed the door on India. The review remains ongoing, and if operational bottlenecks are addressed and recent reforms deliver smoother market functioning for foreign investors, India’s inclusion prospects remain intact.



The article titled “Banks raise interest rates on fresh term deposits and loans” from page 7 of the sources is reproduced below:


Banks raise interest rates on fresh term deposits and loans

FUNDING PRESSURE. Also hikes median MCLR to 8.6% in July

Our Bureau Mumbai

Scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) are gradually raising interest rates on fresh term deposits and loans amid a wide gap between credit and deposit growth.

The weighted average domestic term deposit rate (WADTDR) on SCBs’ fresh rupee term deposits rose 16 basis points (bps) from 5.63 per cent in June 2025 to 5.79 per cent in June 2026. The WADTDR on fresh rupee term deposits in June 2026 is up from 4.29 per cent in April 2026. The WADTDR on outstanding rupee term deposits increased marginally to 5.69 per cent in June 2026 from 5.57 per cent in May 2026.

The weighted average lending rate (WALR) on fresh rupee loans of SCBs nudged up to 8.53 per cent in June 2026 from 8.51 per cent in May 2026. The WALR on outstanding rupee loans of SCBs declined to 8.95 per cent in June 2026 from 8.97 per cent in May 2026.

GROWTH GAP

In May 2026, the gap between year-on-year (y-o-y) credit growth (18.38 per cent) and deposit growth (13.22 per cent) as at June 30, 2026 stood at 516 basis points. However, the situation was worse in April 2026, with credit growth (20.24 per cent) and deposit growth (8.84 per cent) lagging behind; the gap stood at 1,140 basis points.

To deal with the asymmetry between credit and deposit growth, banks have also raised their benchmark rates. The median marginal cost of funds based lending rate (MCLR) rose to 8.60 per cent in July from 8.50 per cent in June.

Rama Chandra Reddy, Chief Treasury, Karur Vysya Bank, said: “Banks raised their short-term and medium-term term deposit rates of various buckets in June, reflecting aggressive liability mobilization in the first (April–June 2026) quarter balance sheet build up. He said the increase was more pronounced among private sector banks, where fresh deposit rates climbed to 6.21 per cent from 5.94 per cent, driven by intense competition for bulk deposits in June”.

REPRICING BENEFIT

Reddy opined that the cost of outstanding term deposits has largely bottomed out at around 6.58 per cent for SCBs (6.7 per cent for private banks) signalling that the repricing benefit is nearing its end.

“Looking ahead, Q2 (July–September 2026 quarter) is likely to witness renewed upward pressure on deposit costs. Strong mobilisation efforts by banks facing a continued reliance on term deposits are likely to keep CASA growth and sustained credit demand at bay. They are expected to increase the share of higher cost incremental term deposits,” he said.

Consequently, the repricing gains enjoyed over recent quarters are likely to fade with banks facing a gradual firming in their overall cost of deposits. This is also reflected in the initial hardening of banks' 1-year MCLR rate.



The article titled "Israel must approve Trump agreement before we implement it, says Hamas official" from page 12 of the sources is reproduced below:


Israel must approve Trump agreement before we implement it, says Hamas official

Reuters
Dubai/Jerusalem

Implementation of the deal to bring peace to Gaza announced by US President Donald Trump will depend on Israel first meeting its terms, under the ceasefire agreement reached last year, a senior Hamas official told Reuters on Friday.

In a post on his Truth Social platform on Thursday, Trump announced a "major milestone" towards ending the war in Gaza, saying his administration had finally reached an agreement for the complete disarmament of Hamas and other armed groups. The announcement followed months of faltering efforts to keep the ceasefire.

NEGOTIATIONS

Ghazi Hamad, a Hamas official involved in the negotiations, said the group was ready to accept an agreement he said was "difficult and painful." But he avoided using the term disarmament and said the agreement was a "comprehensive framework" that would depend on Israel implementing the first phase of the Sharm el-Sheikh agreement. On the disarmament agreement, he said Israel was required to end its attacks in Gaza and withdraw its forces to where they stood in October 2023, before the free flow of goods and aid coming into the Gaza Strip is resumed.

Only then would Hamas consider handing over its weapons for storage by the Palestinian Authority and the administration of Gaza (NCAG), the technocratic body set up to run the enclave. "We insisted to the mediators that Israel must abide by the agreement," he said.

On Tuesday, Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who faces an election in October, with right-wing parties that have opposed previous deals in Gaza. Reports of a potential political source said Israel would not agree to withdraw forces from the Netzarim Corridor or the Philadelphi Line before Hamas is disarmed and the Gaza Strip is demilitarised.

Previous attempts to reach an agreement have foundered amid mutual suspicion and each side's insistence that each other must move first. The planned oversight body for Gaza, NCAG, issued a statement welcoming "the progress announced yesterday regarding the roadmap and the opening of a new chapter towards beginning its implementation."



The article titled "Digital democracy" from page 6 of the sources is reproduced below:


Digital democracy

Social media platforms need to assume responsibility

The recent student protests have underscored a reality that democracies across the world are grappling with: technology has become both an enabler of legitimate democratic expression and a powerful instrument for manipulation and control. The protests have exposed vulnerabilities on two fronts: the potential misuse of technology by the state in the name of maintaining public order, and its exploitation by sections of protesters and anti-social elements to spread misinformation and inflame public sentiment.

Governments have a legitimate responsibility to maintain law and order. If there is credible intelligence of attempts to incite violence or coordinate criminal activity, temporary restrictions on communications or targeted surveillance of those involved in unlawful acts may be warranted. Yet such powers must remain an exception, be transparent and be exercised within the confines of the law. The blocking of internet services around protest sites or the deployment of surveillance technologies to identify protesters and silence legitimate critical posts of the government have raised concerns over excessive state intervention.

A balance must be struck. There must be clear legal standards, independent oversight and avenues for judicial review to ensure that extraordinary powers are used sparingly and with transparency. There must be no room for these powers to be used to settle political scores or suppress legitimate dissent. The other lesson from the protests is the ease with which social media platforms were misused by some participants and vested interests to spread misinformation. Misleading videos and inflammatory content designed to provoke outrage rather than informed debate gained traction with alarming speed, demonstrating how easily misinformation can shape public narratives during moments of public tension.

This is not merely an Indian phenomenon. Across the globe, platforms have repeatedly been exploited to amplify propaganda, spread rumours and mobilise mobs. In recent years, developments in artificial intelligence have lowered the cost and increased the sophistication of such campaigns, making deepfakes and bots harder to detect and easier to disseminate. Social media companies can no longer afford a hands-off approach. While they correctly argue for the protection of free speech, they also have a responsibility to act swiftly against demonstrably false information and coordinated disinformation campaigns and content that incites violence or hatred. Transparency in moderation decisions, stronger detection of AI-generated content and accountability for repeat offenders are essential if digital platforms are to remain spaces for democratic discourse. Technology itself is neither friend nor foe; it is the framework for using it that strengthens democracy, or weakens it.


The article titled "IT sector's productivity engine gathers steam" from page 13 of the sources is reproduced below:


IT sector's productivity engine gathers steam

REWRITING PLAYBOOK. Revenue per employee improves across tier-I firms as AI, better utilisation and tighter hiring boost efficiency

Sanjana B Bengaluru

The June quarter highlighted a structural shift in India’s IT services industry: a move from volume-led to productivity-led one, with Tier-I firms reporting increasing revenue per employee (RPE) despite a slowdown in headcount.

The trend across Tier-I companies points to improving efficiency rather than workforce expansion, according to Gaurav Vasu, Founder and CEO of UnearthInsight. TCS reduced its headcount by 3.1 per cent year-on-year while increasing revenue by 4.4 per cent. Tech Mahindra’s workforce fell by 5.4 per cent, but its revenue rose 7.4 per cent. This reflects a combination of higher utilisation and the initial impact of AI-driven productivity improvements.

Infosys and HCLTech, meanwhile, managed to increase both headcount and productivity. Infosys expanded its workforce by 2.2 per cent and improved RPE by 1.1 per cent, while HCLTech added 0.3 per cent to its headcount as RPE rose 2.6 per cent. “These companies are growing workforce without compromising productivity, reflecting stronger resource planning and AI-driven efficiencies,” Vasu added.

During Infosys' Q1FY27 earnings call, CEO and MD Salil Parekh attributed the company's improving revenue per employee to sustained efficiency gains. “We recruited 20,000 college graduates in FY26 and plan to recruit another 15,000-20,000 this year and 4,000 joined in the first quarter. As our efficiency and improvements continue,” he said.

TIER II: MIXED PICTURE

The trend is less consistent among tier-II firms. LTIMindtree’s RPE reduced by 3.3 per cent while adding 4.1 per cent to its headcount, indicating strong investment in talent development. In contrast, Wipro and LTPS expanded their workforce but saw RPE decline by 3.9 per cent and 8.4 per cent, respectively, suggesting higher-than-expected headcount growth as they invest ahead of an anticipated recovery.

According to Sanketh Chengapha, Director-Professional Staffing at Business Head Adecco India, “The industry is pivoting from a scale-driven metric to a productivity-driven one”. He noted that the June quarter reflects an uptick in results particularly among tier-1 firms that have focused on more efficiency while maintaining discipline on headcount expansion.

Higher RPE was driven by improved utilisation, tighter bench management, selective hiring, moderated fresher intake, and expansion into high-value services such as AI-driven automation and digital transformation.

EFFICIENCY OVER VOLUME

“In many cases, RPE improved because workforce expansion slowed, talent deployment became more efficient and companies focused on higher-margin services," Gaurav Vasu noted. He also stated that selective hiring, attrition management, and operational restructuring supported this growth despite modest revenue increases.

Analysts stressed that companies with stronger demand visibility continue to recruit, particularly in AI, cloud, and engineering, while maintaining productivity through automation. “AI adoption is also gradually improving developer productivity and streamlining delivery, but its financial impact is still evolving. For now, AI is acting more as a productivity multiplier than a full-scale growth driver,” Vasu said. He concluded that the relationship between revenue growth and headcount growth is weakening as the industry transitions to a productivity-driven model where AI-assisted tools and operational efficiency become as important as workforce expansion.

Leaner & stronger

CompanyQ1 FY26 headcountQ1 FY27 headcounty-o-y growth (%)RPE Q1 FY27 y-o-y growth (%)
TCS6,15,3185,96,222-3.14.4
Infosys3,36,2983,43,8382.21.1
Wipro2,43,0002,51,0003.3-3.9
HCLTech2,23,0002,23,8000.32.6
Tech Mahindra1,48,0001,40,000-5.47.4
LTIMindtree81,00084,3344.1-3.3

Source: UnearthInsight



The article titled “Artificial intelligence lifts Q1 global trade despite West Asia conflict” from page 12 of the sources is reproduced below:


Artificial intelligence lifts Q1 global trade despite West Asia conflict

THE OUTLOOK. WTO economists expect to see larger contractions in Middle East trade flows by the end of the year, together with stronger growth in Asia and North America

Our Bureau New Delhi

Global trade in goods grew faster than expected in the Q1 of 2026 despite the outlook for the West Asia conflict as booming trade in artificial intelligence (AI)-related electronic components offset the negative effects of the disruptions in the Red Sea, which began in the final month of 2024, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said.

The WTO, however, cautioned that escalation of the conflict, including the risk of trade disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, would only become visible in the Q2 data and warned of much steeper contractions in global trade volumes involving the Middle East/West Asia.

“The effects of the Strait of Hormuz disruptions in global trade is expected to be more visible in Q2 2026 data when compared to the 1.9 per cent growth in 1Q 2024,” the report said.

According to the latest WORLDTRADE data, the seasonally adjusted volume of world merchandise trade rose 1.9 per cent in the Q1 of 2026 compared with the fourth quarter and 3.2 per cent (exceeding the earlier forecast of 1.9 per cent). “Strong trade in electronic components related to AI outweighed the negative effects of the outbreak of war in the Middle East, including disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and North America. “The net fuel-importing countries in East Africa and South East Asia reported that the conflict had negatively impacted their trade,” the report noted.

WTO economists expect Middle East trade flows by the end of the year, together with stronger growth in Asia and North America. “The global impact, meanwhile, will depend on whether it will remain confined to the West Asia conflict that predominates,” the report says, adding that the conflict has already taken a heavy toll on Middle East-West Asia trade, it noted.

REGIONAL IMPACT

The region’s merchandise export volumes fell 9.7 per cent y-o-y in Q1, while imports declined 11.9 per cent. The WTO estimates, based on available reporting country data, also showed world crude oil imports from the Middle East/West Asia falling 21.6 per cent y-o-y in January-March, with imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and fertilisers declining 52 per cent and 26 per cent, respectively.

The WTO expects even sharper contractions in the region’s trade during Q2 as the disruptions to shipping and energy supplies is more fully reflected in official statistics.

Asia emerged as the main engine of global trade growth, with exports rising 12.9 per cent and imports 14.8 per cent y-o-y. The expansion was led by strong intra-regional trade in AI-related goods, with South Korea, China, Thailand and Chinese Taipei recording particularly strong export growth.

North America’s Q1 exports also grew strongly at 9.1 per cent. North American imports rose by 2.6 per cent y-o-y from Q1 of 2025, which saw a surge of imports due to front-loading ahead of expected tariff increases.



The article titled “Spain, Morocco crackdown on migrant rush after 49,000 cross into Spanish enclave” from page 12 of the sources is reproduced below:


Spain, Morocco crackdown on migrant rush after 49,000 cross into Spanish enclave

THE FALLOUT. Spanish officials move to expel illegal entrants; Italy threatens to suspend EU's internal open-borders scheme

Reuters
Ceuta, Spain / Rabat, Morocco / Madrid

Spain and Morocco reinforced the border fence of a Spanish enclave on Friday and appeared to have halted a surge of migrants, after around 49,000 people arrived by sea and land in a single day, with at least 19 dead bodies found in the water.

The mass crossing into Ceuta, a Spanish-held spit jutting into the Mediterranean from Morocco, sparked a diplomatic row, with Italy threatening to suspend its participation in the EU borderless scheme. In the early hours on Friday, Moroccan authorities deployed more than 3,000 and pushed people back. The charred remains of a bus and a car could be seen on a road nearby from clashes with the police.

Spanish authorities said they would try to expel those who had entered illegally as quickly as possible, despite a court ruling that has put restrictions on special “border rejection” rules that allow immediate deportation.

‘BIGGEST CRISIS’

Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is due to visit Ceuta on Friday with Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska. Ceuta and Melilla, another Spanish autonomous city in northern Morocco, have the European Union’s only land borders with Africa. The two cities are each home to around 80,000 people.

Both cities periodically experience surges in attempted crossings by migrants seeking to reach Europe, but nearly 50,000 crossings in a single day appears to be unprecedented. Spain described it as the biggest crisis since at least 2021. Territorial Policy Minister Angel Victor Torres said on Friday that among factors contributing to the surge may have been a ruling by Spain's Supreme Court earlier this month that migrants intercepted at sea while attempting to reach Ceuta or Melilla cannot be summarily returned.

Torres told a local radio station that the Spanish government had reacted immediately to the surge and would proceed to return the migrants, while respecting court rulings and migrants' human rights. On the Moroccan side of the border, thousands of migrants remained in the town of Fnideq overnight despite a reinforced deployment of security that foiled most attempts to cross. Although the crossing appeared blocked, groups moved along the coast seeking routes around the fence; some prepared to swim.

“I was here,” said Brahim, 32, who gave only one name. He said he had travelled from Tangier hoping to cross through the gate but found it effectively shut. Among those hoping to cross were women and children, from both Morocco and Sub-Saharan African countries further south.

SECURITY LAPSE

In a post on X, Spain's Guardia Civil police association AUGC said there had been too few police in place to monitor the fence during the surge on Thursday, making them unable to stop it.

“Migratory policies reflect the reality of the 21st century and must always respect the dignity and the human rights of the migrants and refugees who arrive in Ceuta,” said a joint statement by several local migrant groups, saying reports of about 50-100 student deaths in Ceuta were false. Migration is a sensitive issue across Europe, where right-wing parties have surged in the decade since a 2015 crisis when more than a million people crossed the continent mainly on foot and sought asylum, most fleeing war in Syria.

ITALY’S WARNING

Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said her country was prepared to “intervene in a massive way if necessary” to defend the borders and the security of citizens, including the suspension of the EU’s internal border-free zone.

The city of citizens, including its government, said it had been “abandoned” by the EU, and that immigrants might have offered a mass amnesty or work permits to tens of thousands of people seeking citizenship over the past year.

In Spain, official data from the Interior Ministry for Ceuta show how the Madrid government's decision to grant Spanish, and therefore EU, citizenship to more than 500,000 irregular immigrants has encouraged and encourages human trafficking,” Italy’s Foreign Ministry said in a note written on Wednesday. Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares replied that Meloni’s remarks were “inappropriate”, and said Italy and Spain should show solidarity and not “partisan demagoguery” from its partner.



The article titled “Apple logs record June quarter in India despite headwinds” from page 10 of the sources is reproduced below:


Apple logs record June quarter in India despite headwinds

KEY FACTORS. Underlying consumer demand remains resilient, Mac products drive growth notwithstanding price hike

Vallari Sanigari
Mumbai

Apple Inc announced a record June quarter in India and other emerging markets in the third quarter of FY26, despite “very significant headwinds” from both supply chain and foreign exchange.

“We see less flexibility in supply chain than we had in the supply from the company’s impact on the supply from the supply to increase significantly sequentially. The progress we have made since the September quarter will be very seeing some very significant headwinds that we’re really,” said Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, during the earnings call on Thursday. Apple records its US, Latin America, Europe, Greater India, China Mainland, Japan and Southeast Asia.

IPHONE REVENUE

The company posted quarterly revenue of $94.9 billion, up 16 per cent y-o-y, led by products and services revenue growth. iPhone revenue was down 1.6 per cent sequentially. iPhone revenue grew 21.6 per cent on year-on-year basis to $54 billion, with every geographic segment and a June quarter record for up and down.

The company gained share globally during the quarter, Cook said, citing IDC data. “India is the most popular iPhone line-up we’ve ever had. More than 10 per cent of buyers are day for AI, powered by a new generation of Apple chips including an array of A19 and A19 Pro,” Cook added.

RISING PRICE

Meanwhile, India is feeling the effect of rising average selling prices (ASP) on board, per IDC data. The country’s average price for iPhones is “close to $1,000” according to industry estimates.

“iPhone shipments held roughly flat to just 1 per cent y-o-y growth — an improvement from the 5 per cent decline seen in Q1 2026. These softer numbers are being driven by supply constraints for certain popular iPhone models. However, consumer interest in iPhones remains very strong. iPhones are still moving at full price and demand remains healthy,” said Prabhu Ram, VP-Industry Research Group, CMR.

Despite this, the brand holds strong appeal in India, leading to confidence that the slowdown will be temporary. Over the next two quarters, IDC does not expect Apple offering festive discounts as interest along with the new series being even higher.

Asked about memory costs, the company said it expects prices to continue rising higher even beyond the September quarter, which could drive an increasing impact on business. “We expected to pay significantly more for memory in the June quarter than the March quarter, and what it happened was, it was partially offset by the benefit of carry-in inventory.”

MACBOOK DEMAND

Mac delivered its best June quarter with a revenue of $10.4 billion, up 28.6 per cent from a year ago, despite supply constraints driven by demand for MacBook Pro and MacBook Neo. These are among the products that received significant updates like in India in June.

“While temporary supply constraints and channel inventory adjustments weighed on June quarter iPhone sell-in, underlying demand for iPhones remains resilient. Apple also delivered its best-ever June quarter in India, with revenue growing 21.6 per cent, supported by strong MacBook Neo adoption. Apple’s aspirational brand positioning continues to attract new consumers and strengthen its ecosystem,” said Shubham Singh, Research Analyst at Counterpoint Research.

BEST PERFORMERS

“The research firm expects single-digit shipment growth and double-digit revenue growth in India this year, supported by premiumisation and a richer product mix. Apple’s overall region, excluding Greater China and Japan, revenue grew by 12.6 per cent annually to $8.8 billion.

Regionally, China, Europe and emerging markets were the standout performers, as Apple’s relative value proposition amid widespread Android price increases. Every market hit his highest-ever second quarter revenue share of 49 per cent in Q2 2026. Revenue rose 22 per cent annually to a second-quarter record, supported by a 13 per cent rise in iPhone sales and 8 per cent growth per unit.

“Unlike peers that pushed through steep price increases, Apple kept pricing largely stable, reflecting its focus on volume growth,” Singh added. “Moving forward, however, Apple will likely increase prices in the coming quarters. This discipline strengthened Apple’s competitive position, enabling growth in both value and volume even as much of the market contracted,” said Singh of Counterpoint Research.




Thursday, July 30, 2026

Newspaper Summary 310726

 The following is the full text of the article titled "HDFC lessons" from page 4 of the July 31, 2026, edition of Business Line:


HDFC lessons

Sharp practices to get deposits not desirable

HDFC Bank has been in the news for the wrong reasons since March, when its Chairman Atanu Chakraborty resigned after dropping vague hints about internal trouble. Since then, some unsavoury developments have come into view, such as the Bank’s convoluted dealings with Maharashtra State Road Transport Corporation (MSRTC). The episode raises a governance question at a micro level; at a macro level, it appears that banks are increasingly crossing red lines to attract wholesale or bulk deposits.

With households channeling their savings into higher yielding investments such as mutual funds and stock markets, the competition for bulk deposits has intensified. In May, a special disciplinary committee of independent directors of HDFC Bank had been asked to investigate how the differential interest (the difference between the publicly stated interest rate and the higher rate paid to MSRTC) of ₹55 crore had been paid to MSRTC. These funds were allegedly used to pay vendors for road safety awareness campaigns run by the bank's marketing department.

In early March, the bank also terminated three senior officials in its Dubai and Bahrain branches for allegedly making payments to consultants in the UAE to win NRI business. The zeal to grow quickly to satisfy shareholders can lead to questionable practices. Reports indicate banks are chasing bulk depositors like state corporations and software companies with large cash surpluses, offering them much higher rates than regular depositors.

While growing a deposit base through wholesale deposits is valid, any deliberate omission or misrepresentation in financial statements is a governance issue. Although banks are allowed to offer differential rates for bulk deposits, they must be transparently offered to all depositors in that category. The HDFC Bank Board’s view that the MSRTC case was merely "business overreach" without "malafide intent" appears to be a cavalier approach.

The RBI has reportedly sought more information from the Managing Director and CEO, CFO, and other key executives. It remains to be seen how this situation will affect the reappointment of Sashidhar Jagdishan as Managing Director and CEO. Reports suggest the RBI’s findings may recommend warnings or penal actions for potential divergence from norms. Given that guidelines for a Bank CEO require a proven track record of integrity, the head of India’s largest private bank must be above reproach.


The following is the full text of the article titled "The fragile basis of digital India" from page 4 of the July 31, 2026, edition of Business Line:


The fragile basis of digital India

Digital dangers. From being a smartphone assembling nation, we must move towards structural supply chain ownership

By Faisal Kawoosa

India’s transition into a digital-first economy is a globally lauded achievement in economic history. Powered by robust Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI), unified payments, and welfare transfers, we have brought hundreds of millions into the formal economy.

Yet a silent crisis is brewing at the structural entry point of this revolution: the humble budget smartphone. Driven by intense inflation in hardware costs — the cost of memory modules, display drivers, and raw semiconductor materials — the entry-level smartphone is shifting rapidly out of reach for millions of Indians.

For years, the success of Digital India relied on a steady, predictable supply of sub-₹10,000 devices. Today, that segment is vanishing. Component costs have triggered price increases of up to 40 per cent for entry-level models, pushing them into the ₹12,000-₹15,000 bracket. These price hikes significantly outpace the income growth of the demographic they serve. Recent tech outages like the global surge of Microsoft/CrowdStrike glitches highlight the severity of this problem. Reliance on an increasingly concentrated, expensive, and foreign-controlled hardware ecosystem for basic digital services is no longer a mere technical concern. It is a systemic threat to economic inclusion.

The arithmetic of this hardware crunch is stark. Over 40 per cent of India’s active smartphone users still use devices priced below ₹10,000. By their very nature, these essential, affordable handsets are built with tight lifespans, rarely lasting beyond three years of use. Without a continuous supply of sub-₹15,000 replacements, hundreds of millions of current smartphone users will be forced out of the digital ecosystem. This is not a future risk; it is a current reality. A reliable, mass-market smartphone will hit ₹15,000, while a reliable user experience will demand an investment of at least ₹18,000. For a vast section of the population, the entry barrier to the nation’s digital public infrastructure is becoming an unattainable luxury.

TACTICAL FIXES

Whenever economic friction threatens consumer accessibility, the default policy playbook points to tactical, fiscal adjustments. Calls for GST rationalisation on smartphones, tariff reductions on sub-components, or expanded financing facilities like NBFC-backed micro loans frequently dominate the discourse.

While valuable, these measures fail to solve the underlying problem. Lowering taxes or offering credit to consumers is merely papering over the cracks. Subsidising the consumption of expensive, imported hardware doesn't build resilience; it simply delays the inevitable. We need a fundamental shift from protecting consumption to owning production.

The "harsh reality" is that India remains a "smartphone assembly nation." Our manufacturing operations are primarily focused on assembly, highly exposed to the cyclical price hikes of global foundry and memory vendors, semiconductor wafer allocation, and foreign proprietary technology. Until we address the components baseline, we must move from assembling units to structural supply-chain interventions.

Affordable smartphones are a cornerstone of our digital democratic foundation. To ensure it we need to actively build a resilient, self-contained electronics ecosystem.

MOVING BEYOND ASSEMBLY

The core challenge of the current inflationary wave lies inside the device’s bill of materials (BOM). If India wants to command pricing gravity at the entry-level tier, it must secure deep supply chain ownership across three structural nodes:

  • Upstream: Domestic silicon and memory OSAT. The most painful segment of the current supply chain crunch is memory shortages. Building large-scale semiconductor fabrication plants remains a long-term goal, but India can immediately build self-reliance in Assembly, Testing, Marking, and Packaging (ATMP) and Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test (OSAT) facilities. Under the India Semiconductor Mission (ISM), our policy focus must prioritise memory and logic packaging and test lines specifically optimised for budget platforms. By locally packaging imported silicon wafers into finished memory configurations, India can break free from foreign component markups and insulate entry-level hardware from global supply shocks.
  • Deep Component Indigenisation: Local value addition must move from beyond layering plastic back panels and charging cables. Under localised manufacturing frameworks, the focus must shift aggressively toward complex sub-assemblies. India needs localised production of multi-layered Printed Circuit Boards (PCBs), display driver modules, and complex camera sub-assemblies. The local manufacturing ecosystem must extend the same vertical integration it has achieved in device assembly where domestic players have steadily narrowed the gap with global giants in speed and precision.
  • Alternative Supply Networks and Regional Sourcing Hubs: Until full self-reliance is achieved, India must use its geopolitical and trade leverage to build highly resilient, diversified sourcing networks. Instead of relying on single geographic dependencies for vital materials, our trade frameworks should prioritise long-term dependency agreements with alternate hubs in South-East Asia. Securing raw materials and critical components through diversified, long-term bilateral agreements with multiple nations can effectively buffer local assemblers against sudden price spikes in any single geography.

ENSURING A SUSTAINABLE DPI

If we allow the entry threshold for smartphones to continue rising unchecked, the democratic foundation of the Digital India revolution begins to fracture. Micro transactions via UPI power the economic baseline of rural India. Digital authentication systems authenticate critical driver identities. Digital health records deliver vital governance directly to our citizens. None of these essential services can function without affordable hardware.

Digital inclusion must be fiercely protected as a public utility, rather than just a private consumer trend. If the basic gateway tool required to access public services is priced out of reach for our lower-income quartile, the digital divide will only deepen.

By pivoting our policy focus away from short-term financial subsidies and steering it toward structural supply chain ownership, India can build a resilient, self-contained electronics ecosystem. Ensuring long-term hardware affordability is no longer just an industrial target — it is an economic imperative to preserve the foundation of Digital India’s future.


    The following is the full text of the article titled "Unease over Trump’s nuke deal with Saudi Arabia" from page 5 of the July 31, 2026, edition of Business Line:


Unease over Trump’s nuke deal with Saudi Arabia

The Saudi pact and Netanyahu's Washington visit stoke fears of escalating conflict with Iran

By Paran Balakrishnan

It was a decision that sent alarm bells across the Middle East, India and far beyond, as US President Donald Trump stunned allies and foes alike when he announced an agreement to help Saudi Arabia enrich uranium on its own soil. Adding fuel to the fire, he said Saudi nuclear facilities would not be subject to the same strict inspections that are normally demanded under nuclear pacts.

No country was watching more nervously than Iran.

For years, it had been argued that, despite decades of suspicion, Tehran has been careful not to cross the line into building a nuclear bomb. The reasoning is simple: an Iranian bomb would almost certainly trigger a nuclear arms race across the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia and potentially others seeking their own deterrents, creating a far more volatile and dangerous region.

That’s precisely why Trump’s Saudi deal is being seen as a game-changer.

Yet by this week, Trump appeared to have shifted gears. In his characteristically erratic fashion, he tossed a new wild card into the mix, suggesting Saudi Arabia would first have to sign the Abraham Accords and recognise Israel before any deal was finalised.

The Saudi response was swift and non-committal.

“If Saudi recognition of Israel had been a simple matter, it would have been dealt with already,” said one diplomat. “But making it a precondition for Trump’s fresh demands “do not simplify an already complex situation”.

MIDDLE EAST RESHAPED

The episode is the latest twist in a region already on edge. Last week, Donald Trump, buoyed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit, laid out a Middle East with a series of dramatic interventions that have left allies, rivals and even some in Washington scrambling to understand the new logic.

This week Netanyahu arrives in Washington for his first visit since the US-Israel-Iran conflict erupted. One question hangs over the trip: will he try to persuade Trump to resume military action against Iran? The answer is almost certainly yes.

Things could hardly be worse. As Houthi-led attacks in the US capital, the Gulf is again sliding deeper into turmoil. Yemen’s Houthis movement has entered the conflict and is threatening tankers funding route Saudi Arabia’s Jubail export terminal on the Red Sea before they pass through the vital Bab el-Mandab strait, the gateway linking the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean.

For India, there has at least been one good bit of news: Russian oil tankers appear to have been spared Houthi attacks. That matters because India’s appetite for Russian crude keeps growing. In June, Russia supplied a record 42 per cent of India’s oil imports. July’s figure will be even higher.

WHO’S FEELING THE HEAT?

All of this raises an obvious question: does Trump care about the turmoil his actions are causing?

Many analysts have long argued that, despite decades of suspicion, Tehran has been careful not to cross the line into building a nuclear bomb.

Apparently not as much as many other countries would like.

American motorists are paying significantly more at the pump than a year ago, something that could become a political headache ahead of the midterms. But the US imports only a small share of its oil from the Gulf. The countries facing the real headache are in Asia. India, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam have been forced to scramble for alternative supplies and rethink energy security calculations.

China, traditionally one of the Gulf’s biggest customers, has also surprised traders by sharply reducing purchases. Some oil industry analysts speculate Beijing may be wanting to remind Washington that the US remains the world’s dominant energy power and could disrupt Chinese supplies if it chose. If so, China may already have short-circuited the strategy.

Whatever Trump’s objective, one thing is evident: the region is growing more volatile by the day and the margin for error is shrinking.

Iran has stepped up attacks and pressure campaigns against multiple Gulf states, including the UAE, with which it has traditionally maintained relatively workable relations. Bahrain has also found itself in the firing line because it hosts a major US naval base.

Israel’s campaigns, meanwhile, have sent shockwaves through Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. For decades, Israeli leaders have viewed Iran as their most formidable regional adversary and sought to weaken its influence.

Yet Iran is not some minor regional player that can simply be wished away. It’s a nation of 95 million people, an old civilisation, and woven into the Middle East’s political, religious and economic fabric.

The uncomfortable reality is that after months of wars, threats, sanctions and brinkmanship, nobody has solved the problem. They have simply made it bigger. And in a Middle East already crowded with fault lines, the next spark could ignite a fire nobody can control.


The following is the full text of the article titled "Embassy REIT Q1 net operating income rises 17% to ₹1,020 crore" from page 6 of the July 31, 2026, edition of Business Line:


Embassy REIT Q1 net operating income rises 17% to ₹1,020 crore

Press Trust of India

Realty firm Embassy Office Parks REIT on Thursday reported a 17 per cent increase in net operating income (NOI) to ₹1,020 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.

Its revenue from operations rose 14 per cent annually to ₹1,241 crore in the first quarter of the current fiscal, the REIT said in a regulatory filing.

The board of Embassy Office Parks Management Services Pvt Ltd, Manager to Embassy REIT, also declared a distribution of ₹598 crore for the June quarter of the current fiscal year.

Amit Shetty, CEO, Embassy REIT, said the company continued its strong performance and added 1.3 million sq ft of office space.


The following is the full text of the article titled "El Nino likely to strengthen further during Oct-Dec: Govt" from page 10 of the July 31, 2026, edition of Business Line:


El Nino likely to strengthen further during Oct-Dec: Govt

Our Bureau, New Delhi

The government has said El Nino is likely to strengthen further during the October-December period, and may reach a very strong category.

In a written reply in the Rajya Sabha on Thursday, Jitendra Singh, Union Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Science and Technology and Earth Sciences, said the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has classified as "very strong" based on the magnitude of sea surface temperature anomalies over the equatorial central Pacific Ocean.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has frequently monitored the development of the El Nino event in the 2024-25 season. During the 2024 South-West monsoon season, El Nino conditions were observed to be strong and intensified to moderate levels during October-December 2024.

DETERMINING FACTORS

"El Nino is likely to strengthen further during the October-December 2026 season and may reach a very strong category. However, its exact intensity and impact on weather patterns will depend on the evolution of other atmospheric and oceanic conditions, of which El Nino is one factor," the Minister said in a written reply, adding that the IMD continuously monitors the evolution of El Nino and other factors and issues regular updates.

MONITORING

IMD, under the Ministry, continuously monitors the evolution of El Nino and provides information to various users and stakeholders via regular seasonal/monthly forecasts, extended range forecasts and weather advisories for various Central and State government departments and other stakeholders.

IMD issues impact-based forecasts and risk-based warnings daily, valid for the next five days, through multiple communication channels for use by diverse management authorities. State governments, district administrations, and other stakeholders use these updates to plan and take appropriate response measures, he said.


The following is the full text of the article titled "PM E-Drive yet to fuel e-bus adoption, charging infra lags" from page 11 of the July 31, 2026, edition of Business Line:


PM E-Drive yet to fuel e-bus adoption, charging infra lags

Growth gap. 14,000 e-buses allocated, but concessions signed for 1,515 only: MHI data

Amit Vijay Mahia, New Delhi

The flagship PM E-Drive scheme has significantly accelerated electric vehicle adoption, supporting more than 23 lakh electric two-wheelers and receiving hit-rate from 0.7 per cent in FY20 to 8.2 per cent in FY24. However, the progress in electric buses and charging infrastructure remains slow, even as the Ministry of Heavy Industries (MHI) plans to launch more aggressive marketing and advertising campaigns for these segments.

Data presented in the Rajya Sabha on Tuesday showed that demand incentives for electric two-wheelers received between April 1, 2024 and July 23, 2024 were for 12,28,194 units. Of this, electric two-wheelers accounted for 11,51,003 units. The remaining 77,191 units were for electric three-wheelers, including e-rickshaws and heavy duty electric three-wheelers. Incentives for electric two-wheelers are set to end by July 31, 2024 although the government may extend the scheme. Any continuation would require fresh budgetary support, which would be decided in the new fiscal year allocation.

SLOW DEALS

While vehicle adoption has increased, progress in the e-bus segment and deployment remains limited. Letters of confirmation have been issued for 13,000 e-buses in states like Punjab, Tamil Nadu and Mumbai. An additional 200 buses have been sanctioned for Jammu & Kashmir, taking total allocations to 14,200 against a target of 14,038.

However, concession agreements have been signed for only 1,515 buses so far, just about 11 per cent of the buses allocated to the states. Several major cities, including Delhi, Mumbai and Bengaluru, are yet to sign agreements for the bulk of their e-bus deployment.

Successful bidders must still secure prototype approval before buses can be delivered. The e-bus segment is also facing supply chain challenges, with manufacturers struggling to meet the demand within stipulated timelines.

INFRA LAG

Progress in charging infra has also been slow. Of the ₹10,900 crore earmarked for the scheme, ₹4,393 crore had been approved for deploying 8,562 chargers. However, as of March 24, no funds had been disbursed for charging infra under the scheme.

The government is also attempting to build domestic battery manufacturing capacity. On July 29, it announced the re-bidding for the 10 GWh Advanced Chemistry Cell (ACC) PLI scheme, attracting 23 prospective bidders.


The following is the full text of the article titled "Domestic sugar prices to remain firm in short-term, says Triveni" from page 10 of the July 31, 2026, edition of Business Line:


Domestic sugar prices to remain firm in short-term, says Triveni

Higher sales volume and better price realization in sugar and alcohol led Triveni Engineering & Industries, a leading integrated sugar and ethanol manufacturer, to register a 21 per cent growth in net profit to ₹1,481 crore for Q1 FY27 (April-June) .

Net profit was despite the lower off-take in alcohol and add-on in revenue margin in the washroom section . "Profitability improved because of higher margins attributable to increase in sugar margin in both sugar and realization and lower procurement price of rice for producing power (DDGS) realization and other pre-agricultural products, which led to a healthy yield in the alcohol segment," a statement said .

During Q1 FY27, the company sold 2,72,005 tonnes of sugar against 2,58,150 tonnes a year ago . The domestic sales price reached ₹41,525/tonne against ₹40,142/tonne . The company said domestic sugar prices remained firm in June and July 2026 due to lower than expected production and high demand for exports .

EL NINO IMPACT

The sugar sector has faced the brunt of El Nino since 2024 (monsoon) of cut and 3 mt of diversion towards ethanol . In October 2025 (season 2025-26), these had impacted the country’s sugar stock, which may reach a 10-year low of 1.4 mt .

For the next season (2026-27), the government has already signaled firm sugar production in line with the estimates of 32.5 mt in the initial months of the 2026-25 season as well as 32 mt in 2025-26 . However, the impact of El Nino on production next season .

ETHANOL POLICY

"We look forward to new policy measures from the Government outstripping demand as we move closer to FY27, to tap the full potential of ethanol," it said .

The company said it is also looking at expansion under "Beyond 2030 framework," including for ethanol as well as for new application for ethanol as a green fuel and has the potential to strengthen long term demand for biofuels and create additional growth avenues .

The company's sugar inventory as on June 30 was 2.45 mt, while at the same time last year, it was 2.80 mt . On the other hand, the realised sugar price was ₹33,845/kg against ₹32,741/kg . (Note: These figures are reproduced exactly as they appear in the source, though they may contain typographical errors regarding the unit or decimal placement).

Tarun Sawhney, Vice-Chairman and Managing Director, said that sugar prices had significantly firmed up in line with the estimates of the 2026-25 season as well as in 2025-26 as a result of the impact of El Nino on production next season .


The following is the full text of the article titled "TN can lead the next phase of growth in wind energy: IWTMA" from page 11 of the July 31, 2026, edition of Business Line:


TN can lead the next phase of growth in wind energy: IWTMA

Our Bureau, Chennai

The Indian Wind Turbine Manufacturers Association (IWTMA) has said Tamil Nadu, with its strong industrial base, highly skilled workforce and natural resources, will lead India’s next era of growth in wind energy.

Following the vision, the Indian Wind Turbine Manufacturers Association (IWTMA) yesterday presented a roadmap for TN's leadership in the India's wind energy sector in Chennai.

GROWTH PLAN

The report also served as the centerpiece for the Tamil Nadu Wind Leadership Summit 2026 in Chennai on Wednesday, which brought together senior government officials, policymakers and industry leaders to discuss the critical policy priorities needed to accelerate Tamil Nadu’s wind energy potential.

The roadmap presented a roadmap focused on improving policy execution and fostering a more conducive investment environment for through expanding subsidies. It also outlines measures to promote wind repowering, develop manufacturing hubs around Ennore and VOC Port, and advance Green Energy Corridor planning, offering significant expansion and grid readiness. Additionally, it also places emphasis on strengthening the existing wind turbine and component export hubs from Tamil Nadu.

EXPORT HUB

Currently, the state exports wind turbines and components worth over ₹11,000 crore annually, supporting thousands of direct and indirect jobs. Building on its established leadership, the roadmap said the report outlines measures to further strengthen Tamil Nadu’s role as a global export hub for wind manufacturing and export.

GOVT-INDUSTRY NEXUS

Martand Singh, Vice Chairman and Secretary of IWTMA said, “As global demand for clean energy technology expands, Tamil Nadu state has a unique opportunity to consolidate its position not only as India’s wind manufacturing hub but also as a leading competitive export base. The deliberations today emphasized that sustained collaboration between government and industry to unlock this opportunity, creating an enabling ecosystem for the future of India's wind sector.”

Aditya Puri, CEO of WindOne, said, “The renewable energy landscape is evolving, creating an enabling ecosystem for investment in Tamil Nadu. This will be critical to sustaining TN's leadership. Suggestions presented in this report are intended to support the state government in strengthening manufacturing capacity, improving grid infra and fostering a more investment-friendly ecosystem.”



Wednesday, July 29, 2026

Distribution of Indian Taxpayers

 The latest comprehensive data published by the Income Tax Department covers 75.46 million (7.55 crore) individual income tax returns for Assessment Year 2023–24 (FY 2022–23 income). (Etds)

Distribution of Individual Taxpayers by Gross Total Income

Annual Gross Total IncomeNumber of Individual Returns% of Individual Returns
Nil income214,9140.3%
Up to ₹1.5 lakh3,194,5974.2%
₹1.5–2 lakh1,369,5291.8%
₹2–2.5 lakh2,657,7223.5%
₹2.5–3.5 lakh5,644,0457.5%
₹3.5–4 lakh3,953,7435.2%
₹4–4.5 lakh5,932,0027.9%
₹4.5–5 lakh12,511,49116.6%
₹5–5.5 lakh6,086,3568.1%
₹5.5–9.5 lakh20,402,97127.0%
₹9.5–10 lakh1,060,4501.4%
₹10–15 lakh6,228,0028.3%
₹15–20 lakh2,503,9323.3%
₹20–25 lakh1,240,1281.6%
₹25–50 lakh1,953,6192.6%
₹50 lakh–1 crore589,7620.8%
₹1–5 crore291,9290.39%
₹5–10 crore34,1930.05%
₹10–25 crore14,9470.02%
₹25–50 crore5,4810.01%
₹50–100 crore2,7450.004%
Above ₹100 crore8290.001%

Percentages are rounded and based on approximately 75.46 million individual returns. (Etds)

Key takeaways

  • 51.7% of all individual tax returns report incomes below ₹5.5 lakh.

  • The largest single income group is ₹5.5–9.5 lakh, accounting for about 27% of all filers.

  • About 16.7% of individuals report incomes above ₹10 lakh.

  • Roughly 0.78% (about 5.9 lakh people) report incomes above ₹50 lakh.

  • Around 0.46% (about 3.5 lakh people) report incomes above ₹1 crore.

  • Only about 58,000 individuals report incomes above ₹5 crore, representing less than 0.08% of all individual filers. (Etds)

This distribution illustrates how concentrated the higher-income tax base is: while more than 7.5 crore individuals filed returns, fewer than 1 in 200 reported incomes exceeding ₹1 crore. (Etds)

KOSPI Performance

 As of 30 July 2026, the KOSPI (Korea Composite Stock Price Index) is up approximately 41–50% year-to-date (YTD), despite experiencing a sharp correction during July. The exact figure depends on whether it is measured in Korean won or U.S. dollar terms and the observation date. Reuters reported the index remained about 41.5% higher YTD in USD terms after the late-July selloff. (Reuters)

KOSPI Calendar Year Returns (Past 10 Years)

YearCalendar Return
2025+76.0%
2024-9.6%
2023+18.7%
2022-24.9%
2021+3.6%
2020+30.8%
2019+7.7%
2018-17.3%
2017+21.8%
2016+3.3%

2026 Performance (YTD)

As ofReturn
30 Jul 2026Approximately +41% to +50% (after the July correction) (Reuters)

Observations

  • 2025 was the strongest year since 1999, driven by AI-related semiconductor stocks, particularly Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. (Reuters)

  • 2026 began with another exceptional rally before suffering one of the sharpest corrections in KOSPI history during July as AI valuations and leveraged positions unwound. Even after that correction, the index remains one of the world's best-performing major equity markets for the year. (Reuters)

  • Over the last decade, the KOSPI has experienced several swings of more than 20%, highlighting its cyclical and technology-heavy nature.

Below is a comparison of price index calendar-year returns (excluding dividends) for the KOSPI and the S&P 500 over the last 10 completed calendar years.

YearKOSPIS&P 500
2025+75.6%+17.9%
2024-9.6%+23.3%
2023+18.7%+24.2%
2022-24.9%-19.4%
2021+3.6%+26.9%
2020+30.8%+16.3%
2019+7.7%+28.9%
2018-17.3%-6.2%
2017+21.8%+19.4%
2016+3.3%+9.5%

The KOSPI figures are price returns in Korean won. The S&P 500 figures are price returns in U.S. dollars, excluding dividends. (Wikipedia)

Summary

Metric (2016–2025)KOSPIS&P 500
Positive years7/108/10
Negative years3/102/10
Best year+75.6% (2025)+28.9% (2019)
Worst year-24.9% (2022)-19.4% (2022)
Average annual return≈11.9%≈14.1%

Key observations

  • The S&P 500 has been much more consistent, posting positive returns in eight of the last ten years and compounding steadily.

  • The KOSPI has been considerably more volatile, with large swings in both directions. It experienced three double-digit declines (2018, 2022, and 2024) but also delivered an exceptional +75.6% gain in 2025, driven largely by a rally in AI-related semiconductor companies. (Wikipedia)

  • Excluding the extraordinary 2025 rally, the S&P 500 significantly outperformed the KOSPI over the decade on both consistency and cumulative returns.

  • For an international investor, currency movements matter. The table above shows local-currency returns; a U.S. dollar investor in Korean equities would have experienced different returns due to fluctuations in the Korean won. (Gongsi Today)

Overall, the comparison highlights a classic trade-off:

  • S&P 500: Higher consistency, lower volatility, stronger long-term compounding.

  • KOSPI: Higher cyclicality, greater volatility, and the potential for very large gains during favorable technology and semiconductor cycles.


Iran Update: Escalation in Jordan and the Strait of Hormuz

 

Iran Update Special Report, July 29, 2026

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute are publishing daily updates to provide analysis on the war with Iran. These updates cover events from the past 24-hour period; however, the ISW-CTP has revised its structure due to the resumption of war between the United States and Iran. Iran is currently engaged in an information effort to frame its attacks as retaliatory and defensive, but it is actually conducting proactive military operations to achieve discrete objectives.

Key Takeaways

  1. The Iranian regime likely launched a “surprise attack” on US forces in Jordan on July 28 to erode the United States’ willingness to undermine efforts to achieve Iranian war aims, such as securing control over the Strait of Hormuz. The regime likely calculated it could degrade US resolve by inflicting casualties during the current “pause” in strikes.
  2. The IRGC Aerospace Force conducted the Jordan attack, though it is unclear if there was consensus among all regime factions. IRGC Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi almost certainly supported the decision, and even the pro-negotiations camp may have backed it as they share the same strategic objectives regarding the strait and the US regional presence.
  3. The attack was likely intended to signal Iran's willingness to risk full-scale conflict to secure control over the Strait of Hormuz.
  4. The US and Saudi Arabia conducted retaliatory strikes on July 28 against Iranian-backed Iraqi militia weapons and logistics sites across Iraq.
  5. US and Saudi strikes also targeted sites along the Iran-Iraq border used for the Arbaeen pilgrimage, which Iran intended to use to move weapons and advisers into Iraq.
  6. These strikes reportedly killed at least four IRGC Quds Force officers in Diyala Province, highlighting the IRGC's role in overseeing militia attacks.
  7. Iran is working to bolster its air defense with assistance from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and is improving its drone capabilities.
  8. The Houthis are threatening to expand attacks on Saudi targets to coerce an end to the blockade of their ports and may begin imposing fees on vessels transiting the Red Sea.
  9. An unspecified actor launched a drone attack targeting a US-owned tanker at a Mediterranean port in Damietta, Egypt, on July 29.

Toplines

The Attack in Jordan and the Strait of Hormuz The July 28 “surprise attack” involved multiple ballistic missiles launched by the IRGC at Muwaffaq Salti Airbase in Jordan. While the Jordanian Army intercepted five missiles, the attack ended a four-day pause in fighting that the US had initiated to restart talks. IRGC-affiliated media claimed this demonstrates that Iran maintains the “initiative” in the war.

Shortly before the attack, Iran rejected an Omani proposal for regional management of the Strait of Hormuz, calling it “unrealistic”. Iranian officials, including Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, stated that Iran would take any action—including war—to ensure sovereignty over the strait. The IRGC Navy has already claimed strikes on three tankers transiting the strait against their warnings.

Internal Iranian Regime Dynamics While the IRGC Aerospace Force claimed the Jordan attack was a response to US “aggressive actions,” ISW-CTP observes diverging views on the means to achieve war aims. Major General Vahidi, who plays an outsized role in decision-making, has frequently overruled more moderate figures like President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Vahidi’s faction appears to be actively undermining negotiations to renew the ceasefire. However, the pro-negotiations faction still seeks the same ends—Iranian control of the strait and the removal of US forces—but prefers negotiations as the primary tool.

US and Saudi Military Operations in Iraq Retaliatory strikes on July 28 targeted Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) bases across seven Iraqi provinces, killing at least 20 members. Targeted units included the Badr Organization and Kataib Imam al Ali, which have provided logistical support for attacks on US interests. Strikes also hit Arbaeen pilgrimage-related sites, including a guesthouse in Karbala and the PMF Basra Operations Command. Saudi media reports that IRGC Quds Force officers directly oversaw recent militia attacks, utilizing specific cells created to maintain plausible deniability.

Houthi Escalation The Houthis are planning to expand their blockade of Saudi Arabia by attacking oil pipelines and ports to raise the economic costs of the Saudi-led blockade on Houthi-controlled areas. These threats also serve Iranian strategic objectives by wearing down Saudi willingness to oppose Iranian demands in the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, the Houthis are considering establishing a regulatory authority to charge fees for vessels transiting the Bab al Mandeb. Reports indicate the PRC has already held direct negotiations with the Houthis to secure safe passage for its own vessels.

Iranian Air Defense and Drones Iran has reportedly signed a deal through a Hong Kong company to purchase 300 to 400 PRC-made MANPADS (including QW-12, QW-18, and QW-19 models). This follows previous purchases of Russian systems. Additionally, Iran has developed a new version of the Hadid 110 drone, featuring a jet engine and solid fuel booster for higher speed and greater stealth to counter US air defenses.

Tanker Attack in Egypt On July 29, a drone struck the US-owned gas storage tanker Energos Winter at Damietta Port, causing a fire that spread to a second vessel. While no one has claimed responsibility, pro-Iranian channels had previously identified the port as a potential target in retaliation for a Ukrainian attack on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea.


Assessed Iranian War Aims

  • Secure international recognition of Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Degrade the US ability and willingness to continue the war.
  • Restore deterrence vis-à-vis the United States and its regional partners.
  • Divide the United States and Israel from the Arab states.

Regional Updates

Lebanon Hezbollah conducted its first drone strike in southern Lebanon since June 18, targeting an IDF engineering vehicle near the Ali al Taher tunnel complex. The IDF, which recently took control of the surrounding territory, pledged to respond and expand operations if necessary. While international leaders have urged Hezbollah not to restart kinetic activity, the group has not yet received direction from Iran on how to proceed.

Iraq Iranian-backed militias, including Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada and Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, have condemned the US-Saudi strikes as violations of sovereignty and threatened retaliation.

Arabian Peninsula The Houthis claimed to shoot down a Saudi-operated Vestel Karayel drone over Saada Governorate. Additionally, the Houthis have reportedly established a new operational headquarters in Jurf al Sakhr, Iraq, to coordinate with Iraqi militias. This location, which was struck by US and Saudi forces on July 29, may support Houthi drone attacks launched against Saudi Arabia from Iraqi territory.