Iran Update Special Report, July 14, 2026
Data Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET
Key Takeaways
- Iran has attacked at least three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, demonstrating its continued ability and willingness to target shipping despite recent US strikes. US Central Command (CENTCOM) conducted a wave of strikes against Iranian military targets on July 13 that were being used to threaten shipping. Iran retaliated by attacking US military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan on July 14.
- Hezbollah is conducting an information campaign to delay the Lebanese government’s disarmament efforts. The group is attempting to persuade the government that it will cooperate with the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) but insists that securing a complete Israeli withdrawal must take priority over disarmament.
- The United States backed Saudi Arabia’s July 13 airstrikes on the Houthi-controlled Sanaa International Airport in Yemen. The Houthis have since warned commercial airlines against using Saudi airspace.
Toplines
Iran has attacked at least three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, signaling that it retains the capacity to disrupt shipping despite US military pressure. On July 13, Iran struck at least three vessels, including two Emirati tankers, that were attempting to transit the southern route along Oman’s coast. These attacks resulted in one crew member killed and eight wounded. Iran has repeatedly used force to deter traffic from this alternative route because it undermines Iranian efforts to assert total control over the strait.
While CENTCOM conducted strikes on July 13 to degrade these threats, US officials, including President Donald Trump, have stated the campaign could last several weeks. Consequently, it is premature to fully assess the campaign's effects. The threshold for disrupting shipping remains low, as individual drone and missile attacks can deter risk-averse shipping companies and captains.
Iran responded to the US strikes by attacking US military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan on July 14. Notably, reports indicate Iran may have used a cluster munition warhead in an attack on Bahrain for the first time. While ISW-CTP cannot verify this report, if accurate, it would represent a significant tactical shift, as Iran has previously only used such munitions against Israel. Cluster munitions are designed to disperse submunitions over a wide area to maximize damage.
US-Iran Negotiations
Nothing significant to report.
Maritime Activity in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf
See toplines.
US and Israeli Air Campaign
See toplines.
Iranian Domestic Affairs
The Iranian Parliament held its first open session since the start of the current war to discuss legislation regarding Iranian management of the Strait of Hormuz. Lawmakers reviewed the “Strategic Action Plan for Ensuring the Security and Sustainable Development of the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf,” which was first proposed in April. The bill, which has not yet been approved or its text published, is likely intended to formalize Iran’s control over the waterway. On July 14, 180 parliamentarians signed a letter calling for an oversight committee to ensure the bill's eventual implementation.
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf was notably absent from the session, which was led by Deputy Speaker Hamidreza Haji Babaei. Ghalibaf has faced recent criticism from fellow parliamentarians for failing to convene the body.
Additionally, Iran may be deploying forces to the Iran-Iraq border due to concerns about anti-regime activity by Kurdish opposition groups. These groups claimed on July 14 that the IRGC deployed 3,000 "special forces" along with drones, artillery, and tanks to the border in recent weeks. While no other sources have confirmed this specific large-scale deployment, ISW-CTP has observed an uptick in attacks by these groups on Iranian security forces. The Iranian regime has historically accused these groups of cooperating with Israel and the US to destabilize the country.
Iran’s Axis of Resistance
Lebanese Hezbollah and the Israeli Campaign in Lebanon Hezbollah is using an information campaign to delay disarmament by portraying itself as a willing partner to the Lebanese government. Hezbollah officials, including Secretary General Naim Qassem, have stated the group supports the LAF’s deployment to southern Lebanon to maintain national unity. However, the group maintains it will remain armed even if it withdraws north of the Litani River.
Hezbollah and its allies, such as Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, are also claiming that the Trilateral Framework Agreement’s "pilot zone" plan is an Israeli "trap" intended to provoke internal conflict between the LAF and Hezbollah. Hezbollah officials have consistently warned that disarmament efforts could result in “civil war”.
Meanwhile, US-mediated talks began in Rome on July 14 focusing on the pilot zone plan. While Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar stated the IDF is ready to proceed, delegations still disagree on the timeframe for withdrawal, the geographic scope of LAF deployment, and how disarmament will be monitored.
Other Axis of Resistance Activity
- Iraqi Militias: Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are demanding guarantees—including protection from US/Israeli strikes and a full US military withdrawal—before they will consider disarming. Kataib Hezbollah threatened on July 14 to participate in a renewed war between Iran and the US/Israel.
- Internal Divisions: There are ongoing divisions among militias regarding the Iraqi government’s anti-corruption campaign. Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada rejected the campaign as "selective," while Kataib Hezbollah offered support but warned against using it to "settle scores".
- US-Iraq Relations: In contrast to other militias, Asaib Ahl al Haq expressed support for US investment in Iraq. Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaydi is currently in Washington, DC, to discuss expanding economic relations and a new security cooperation framework to follow the US-led coalition's scheduled withdrawal in September 2026.
- Yemen: Two US officials confirmed that the United States backed Saudi Arabia’s July 13 strikes on Sanaa International Airport. Saudi Arabia is concerned that the resumption of Mahan Air flights between Tehran and Sanaa (the first in 10 years) is being used to transfer weapons and advisers to the Houthis. A Houthi delegation was reportedly on a flight returning from Ali Khamenei’s funeral when the strikes occurred, forcing the plane to return to Iran.
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