The following is the article titled "Stop asking whether the world has too many people" by Atanu Biswas, as it appears on page 2 of the July 22, 2026, edition of The Hindu Business Line:
Stop asking whether the world has too many people
There’s no ideal population size. The goal shouldn’t be to increase or reduce population but to build demographic resilience
Atanu Biswas
Every few years, the world returns to the same old argument. One side warns that humanity is heading towards an abyss, while the other worries about empty cradles, ghost towns, and shrinking workforces. Both arguments contain a grain of truth, but they both overlook the complexity of why and how the single global population crisis. It’s a tale of people living in different demographic directions at once.
The global population has crossed 8.3 billion and is still rising. But beneath that headline number, a massive shift has occurred. The average woman today has about 2.3 children, down from about 5 in the early 1950s. For different estimates, nearly two-thirds of the world’s population live in places where fertility has fallen below the “replacement level” of 2.1 children per woman. Once fertility remains below that threshold for long enough, populations begin to age and decline. The speed of this change is seen dramatically. South Korea’s fertility rate has fallen to around 0.72, the lowest ever recorded. In fact, Japan, which after decades of limiting births, is now desperately trying to reverse it. Japan has become a symbol of demographic aging, with shrinking schools, deserted villages and an expanding elderly population. Much of Europe faces similar challenges, while even the US now records births below replacement level.
The picture is very different elsewhere. Across much of sub-Saharan Africa, populations continue to grow rapidly. India, despite fertility nearing replacement level, remains so populous because of the momentum created by earlier decades of high birth rates. However, southern States such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu already have fertility rates comparable to Europe, while northern States still have relatively higher fertility. In other words, the global demographic paradox exists within India as well.
FEARS OF OVERPOPULATION
For decades, population debates were dominated by fears of overpopulation. Influential books such as The Population Bomb predicted global catastrophic, prompting governments to launch population-control programmes. Many people came to believe that fewer births were essential for a sustainable future. Reality has proved far more complex.
Fertility usually declines as countries become wealthier and more urban and educated. Women pursue higher education and careers, urban housing becomes expensive, and raising children costs more. Smaller families are often signs of development rather than decline.
Yet success brings new problems. Ageing societies have fewer workers supporting more retirees. Pension systems come under pressure, healthcare costs rise, labour shortages become chronic and economic growth slows. Governments have responded with generous incentives, subsidised childcare and extended parental leaves, but to little effect. Government bonuses can’t buy a sense of security, affordable housing and confidence in the future as it pertains to starting or expanding a family.
Meanwhile, countries with rapidly growing populations face their own pressures — overcrowded schools, youth unemployment, housing shortages, and increasing stress on food and water resources.
Perhaps the biggest misconception is that there is an ideal population size. There is not. What matters is not simply how many people a country has, but their age structure, health, education, productivity, and opportunities. A rapidly ageing society and a rapidly growing one require entirely different policy responses. Nor is population growth the sole driver of environmental pressure. Consumption matters just as much. A child born in a wealthy country will typically consume far more energy and natural resources over a lifetime than one born in a poorer nation. Concentrating on population numbers alone ignores these huge inequalities.
The goal, therefore, shouldn't be to increase or reduce population indiscriminately but to build demographic resilience. That means making parenthood affordable where people want children, embracing well-managed immigration where labour shortages threaten growth, and automation to offset shrinking workforces. It also means investing in education, healthcare, and reproductive choice where populations are still expanding. That would reduce fertility rates.
The writer is Professor of Statistics, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata.
The following is the article titled "Analysts turn bullish on Paytm; firm defers bonus plan, Paytm Money to get ₹100 cr" from page 3 of the sources:
Analysts turn bullish on Paytm; firm defers bonus plan, Paytm Money to get ₹100 cr
Our Bureau Bengaluru
Shares of One 97 Communications, which operates Paytm, pared early gains on Tuesday, despite a sharp rise in consolidated revenue for the quarter ended June 2026. The company deferred its bonus plan.
The stock closed 3.49 per cent higher at ₹1,300.50 on the NSE, after rising as high as ₹1,346.90. It had a previous close of ₹1,247.50.
Paytm reported a net profit for the quarter ended June 2026 at ₹125 crore, compared to ₹123 crore in the corresponding period last year. Revenue from operations for the quarter rose to ₹2,448 crore (₹1,918 crore). EBITDA before ESOP cost stood at ₹185 crore (₹151 crore).
The board also approved an additional investment of ₹100 crore in its wholly-owned subsidiary Paytm Money Ltd (PML), through a rights issue.
The board will also seek shareholders' approval to re-appoint Vijay Shekhar Sharma as MD for a period of five years from January 1, 2027. Of the ₹2,000 crore originally earmarked under Object 2 of the IPO proceeds for new business initiatives, acquisitions and strategic partnerships, a significant portion is yet to be utilised.
TARGET PRICE RAISED
Following the results, brokerage firms have turned bullish on Paytm with a target price as high as ₹1,560. On the brokerage, Paytm saw an acceleration in revenue growth and improved margins. The company reported a beat on earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margins, which is 2 per cent above estimates.
- Motilal Oswal (MOFSL): Has a 'buy' rating with a target price of ₹1,280, up from ₹1,050. The firm expects Paytm to achieve cash flow breakeven by FY27, with consolidated EBITDA more than doubling y-o-y.
- Citi: Has a ‘Buy’ rating and increased the target price to ₹1,560. Citi noted earnings momentum is supported by lower indirect expenses, lower ESOP costs, and higher merchant loan growth.
- CLSA: Has an 'Underperform' rating with a target price of ₹1,050 (up from ₹850). CLSA trimmed its FY27-28 loss estimate by 10 per cent due to higher operating leverage and lower operating expenses.
The following is the article titled "Nickel’s fortunes rely on Indonesia’s mining policy" from page 4 of the July 22, 2026, edition of The Hindu Business Line:
Nickel’s fortunes rely on Indonesia’s mining policy
MARKET OUTLOOK. Analysts see prices averaging around $17,000/tonne this year, with the hike in quota a downside risk
Subramani Ra Mancombu Chennai
Nickel has rebounded from the six-month lows witnessed recently, but its price direction during the current half of the year will be dependent on Indonesia's mining policy. "Nickel prices are forecast to ease from current elevated levels to average around $17,500 a tonne in 2026," said Australia’s Office of the Chief Economist (AOCE) in its latest Resources and Energy Quarterly.
"Key downside risks to current prices include any unexpected results from Indonesia’s 2026 mining quota approval process (with an announcement expected in July), as well as any improvement in sulphur and energy supply for Indonesian nickel smelters," it said.
"We have revised up our 2026 nickel price forecast to $17,000/tonne from $16,600/tonne previously, driven by strong H1 performance despite our expectation for lower prices in the second half of 2026," said Research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions.
FEAR OVER POLICY
AOCE said it expected supply to rise, but exports are likely to be at $17,862/tonne year to date, supported by expectations that Indonesia’s RKAB (revision plan) policy would constrain supply and increase production costs, alongside side risks to domestic high-pressure acid leach output stemming from tighter sulphuric acid availability.
Indonesia, which is the world’s largest producer of corrosion-resistant alloys, stainless steel, and electric vehicle batteries, is quoted at $16,950 a tonne, with prices up over 1.5 per cent in the past week, but down 4.2 per cent in the past month.
Indonesia is considering increasing its 2026 RKAB (mining plan and system) mining quota to around 360 million tonnes, up from the current 250-260 million tonnes. "While the proposal has not been confirmed, it would represent the first meaningful easing of supply restrictions this year," said Ewa Manthey, Commodities Strategist at ING Think, the financial and economic analysis wing of the Dutch multinational services firm ING.
MAY BE FLEXIBLE
BMI expects Indonesia to adopt a more flexible policy on mining quotas in the coming months to ease concerns over feedstock availability and support production growth, which should weigh on prices relative to H1 levels. "However, a persistent market surplus should keep prices around current spot levels of $15,161/tonne, marking a sharp jump of 12.1 per cent from H1," it said.
The AOCE said sustained nickel supply is expected to keep prices from rising above $17,000 a tonne (in real terms) until 2029. "However, emerging supply risks raise the possibility of a tighter market balance (and higher prices) earlier in the outlook period," it said.
Manthey said if the Indonesian government goes in for a higher quota, it would mark another shift in its nickel strategy and further cement the country’s role as the key driver of the global nickel market. Indonesia accounts for 60 per cent of the global refined nickel market.
DEFICIT IN 2026?
"The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) forecasted that there will be a 32,000-tonne primary nickel deficit in 2026, leaving little room for additional Indonesian supply," she said. "We expect the nickel market to swing into deficit in 2026, but the excess is now set to narrow to 1,54,000 tonnes from an estimated 2,41,000 tonnes in 2025, as demand growth slows more sharply than demand growth," said BMI.
KEY SWING FACTOR
It forecast refined nickel production to increase by 1.9 per cent over 2025, while pegging the growth of consumption at 4.1 per cent.
"Indonesia will remain the key swing factor. Additional ore quota approvals could support higher output in H2 2026, but policy uncertainty, high domestic production costs and sulphur-related risks to HPAL operations remain key hurdles to a stronger supply response," the research agency said.
Manthey said that if higher mining quotas result in greater downstream production, the surplus of nickel could quickly disappear. "For now, expectations around Indonesian policy remains the primary market driver, but if this sentiment changes, prices could quickly change," she said.
The following is the article titled "LSE to go 24/7 next year" from page 3 of the sources:
LSE to go 24/7 next year
Bloomberg
The London Stock Exchange will open a new venue outside its current operating hours, a move to offer “near-continuous trading” and better compete with the alternative platforms.
The venue, which will be called LSE 24, will operate from 5 pm until 7.30 am the next morning, and will be ready for client testing by the end of 2026, according to a statement on Tuesday.
Products, or ETFs, will be the first products available on the platform expected in the first half of 2027, with other assets as a possible next step.
It’s the latest example of exchanges looking to increase liquidity and attract more retail trading in an environment where round-the-clock trading, especially in crypto, has become the norm. Both CBOE and 24 Exchange have each unveiled plans to extend trading hours to 23/5. CME plans 24/7 trading for some crude oil and gold futures.
GLOBAL APPEAL
The LSE will make hires internationally to help support the new market, Chief Executive Officer Julia Hoggett said in an interview.
The exchange plans to continue trading to equities will depend on approval by the Financial Conduct Authority and feedback from market participants.
Such an expansion into continuous equity trading would create a sharp split between those who would prefer to keep trading into a condensed period and those who see a clear benefit in the ability around when they can buy London-listed shares.
The following is the article titled "US Met agency predicts 97% chance of strong El Nino lingering up to March" as it appears on page 4 of the sources:
US Met agency predicts 97% chance of strong El Nino lingering up to March
NOAA has forecast an 81% probability of a strong El Nino by Oct-Dec 2026
Sriskandan PK Chennai
The Climate Prediction Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in its report ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions, released in the second half of October 2026, there is an 81 per cent probability of a strong El Nino through the winter, while there is a 97 per cent chance it will linger up to March 2027.
It said that in October-December 2026, there is an 81 per cent chance of having a strong El Nino, and there is a 97 per cent chance that El Nino will be weak instead of being very strong.
WARMING OCEANS
The NOAA said sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, and the atmosphere-ocean coupling was consistent with El Nino.
Between August 2025 and February 2026, below-average SSTs were observed across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
In early May 2026, central SSTs have strengthened across the east-central and east-equatorial Pacific. By mid-April 2026, the report added. Over the past four weeks, above-average SSTs were observed in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, while they were below average west of the dateline.
The SSTs in the eastern equatorial Atlantic Ocean were below average, while in the central and eastern Indian Ocean, they were above average.
Positive SST anomalies strengthened in the equatorial Pacific, from the dateline to the eastern Pacific.
Also, above-average SSTs have been observed across the equator in the eastern and central Pacific.
Above-average SSTs have increased in the east-central and east-equatorial Pacific Ocean.
The following is the article titled "Weather shocks, structural weaknesses fuel volatility in coffee, cocoa, tea prices, says FAO" from page 4 of the sources:
Weather shocks, structural weaknesses fuel volatility in coffee, cocoa, tea prices, says FAO
Our Bureau Rome
International prices of coffee, cocoa and tea have reached record-high levels due to structural weaknesses as well as weather-related shocks recently, according to a report by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
Price changes are not transmitted evenly across the value chain, with producers often bearing the brunt of market volatility, while consumers remain relatively less affected, the report said.
The FAO highlighted the need to strengthen production systems, improve market transparency and support a more balanced distribution of value across the value chain to enhance sustainability in these sectors.
The report, Price Dynamics in Global Beverage Markets, revealed that recent price movements were driven predominantly by changes in supply and trade conditions, which account for more than 90 per cent of observed price dynamics.
LARGE SWINGS
Over the past two years, beverage commodity prices have risen much faster than those of many other food commodities, said Maximo Torero, Chief Economist of FAO’s Markets and Trade Division.
“The combination of concentrated supply and growing demand in international markets creates fertile ground for large swings in their international prices. Weather-related shocks in major producing and excessive rainfall — recently hit coffee and cocoa prices. Plant diseases, rising input and labour costs, and infrastructure and shipping delays have added further pressures,” he said.
CONSUMER IMPACT
The report found that changes in international prices were transmitted unevenly across the value chain.
Producers are often more exposed to market volatility than consumers. While international prices have increased significantly, consumer prices is typically muted, it said. Price increases do not fully reach the consumer level, as seen in the case of chocolate. At the consumer level, recent price changes have a limited impact on demand for coffee, cocoa and tea account for only a small share of final product costs.
With coffee, cocoa and tea providing the livelihoods of millions of farmers, the report warned that global price shocks “have direct implications for their livelihoods, poverty levels, food security, and government budgets, especially in countries where these crops represent a substantial share of export earnings.”.
The following is the article titled "Market slips for 2nd day as crude oil price tops $90" from page 3 of the sources:
Market slips for 2nd day as crude oil price tops $90
Our Bureau Mumbai
Equity markets declined for the second consecutive session on Tuesday, weighed down by elevated crude oil prices nearing $90 a barrel, persistent foreign institutional selling, and escalating tensions in West Asia as the US-Iran conflict entered its fourth consecutive day, with Yemen’s Houthis threatening a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia.
The Sensex fell 0.36 per cent, or 88 points, to close at 24,187, down 50 points from the day’s high of 24,237. While the Nifty fell 23.8 points, or 0.32 per cent, to 7,374. However, the Nifty Midcap 100 gained 0.30 per cent and the Nifty Smallcap 100 advanced 0.53 per cent.
Sectorally, Auto led the rally, buoyed by back-to-back quarterly numbers from Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor. Realty, Chemicals, and Cement also ended in the green, while Banking, IT, and Oil & Gas ended lower.
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