Newspaper Summary 110826

 

Household savings move to cash, deposits as equity flows decline

By Yashaswani Chauhan, New Delhi

Households in India are shifting towards safer and more liquid assets. In FY26, investments in bank deposits stood at ₹15.3 lakh crore, representing a 22 per cent increase from the previous year, according to a businessline analysis of the RBI monthly bulletin.

Currency holdings have also nearly doubled to ₹4.15 lakh crore, while equity flows turned negative. From an inflow of ₹40,353 crore in FY25, the equity asset class saw an outflow of ₹79,890 crore in the year ended March 2026. Ramkumar Subramanian, Partner at Grant Thornton Bharat, noted that uncertainty regarding the crisis in West Asia has spooked investors, leading to uncertainty about investment returns.

A STOPGAP CHOICE

Vikram Chhabra, Senior Economist at 360 ONE Asset, suggested that the rise in deposits and cash may not be a "structural shift" in preferences, but rather a temporary parking place for savings.

Over a longer period, the changing composition of household savings becomes more evident:

• Bank Deposits: Share in household financial asset flows increased to 36.6 per cent in FY26 from 32.2 per cent four years ago.
• Life Insurance: Share fell to 13.4 per cent from 18.8 per cent in the same period. Flows declined 10.9 per cent to ₹5.62 lakh crore in FY26.
• Provident and Pension Funds: Remained a major component, accounting for 20.7 per cent of financial asset flows in FY26 (compared to 21.3 per cent in FY22).

Subramanian attributed the decline in life insurance to subdued returns amid falling interest rates and the nature of these products as "pure risk" and "push" products.

RESILIENT MFS

While direct equity flows were negative, mutual funds remained resilient. Flows into mutual funds rose marginally to ₹5.47 lakh crore in FY26. The asset class's share in household financial asset flows more than doubled to 13.1 per cent in the four years leading to March 2026.

Chhabra credited this resilience partly to systematic investment plans (SIPs), which saw contributions rise to ₹3.5 lakh crore in FY26 from ₹2.9 lakh crore the previous year. He noted that unlike mutual funds, direct equity investments are more cyclical and sentiment-driven.

No bar on airport operators owning airlines, clarifies govt

CONTRACT CLAUSES. Says PPP airport agreements can prevent such cross-ownership. POLICY CLARITY. The clarification assumes significance amid controversy over a purported communication from the Adani Group seeking permission to enter the airline business.

By Rohit Vaid, New Delhi

The government on Monday clarified in Parliament that there is no policy restricting operators of major airports from holding substantial equity in or operating scheduled airlines, but acknowledged that contractual restrictions in some public-private partnership (PPP) airport agreements could prevent such cross-ownership.

The clarification assumes significance amid the controversy over a purported communication from the Adani Group seeking permission to enter the airline business, which TMC MP Mahua Moitra circulated on Monday. The Adani Group had earlier denied seeking such permission.

Replying to a Rajya Sabha question specifically on cross-ownership of airports and airlines, Minister of State for Civil Aviation Murlidhar Mohol said there was no government policy barring airport operators from owning or operating a scheduled airline. However, he noted, “The extant contractual agreements relating to some airports under public private partnership (PPP) contain certain restrictions” on scheduled airlines and their group entities or associates holding equity in the airport concessionaire.

NO WAIVER REQUEST

More significantly, the government disclosed that the Airports Authority of India (AAI) had received a request seeking waiver of the relevant contractual provision. “The matter has not yet been examined by the Ministry of Civil Aviation,” the Minister told Parliament.

Last month, businessline had reported that the Centre was working on a package of sweeping aviation reforms aimed at easing entry into the airline sector. Among the various steps outlined to encourage private participation in setting up new airlines was lifting restrictions under existing concession agreements, such as the one entered into by Adani Airports and GMR Airports that constrain airport operators from operating airlines. The government’s response in Parliament on Monday did not identify the airport operator that had sought the waiver.

The parliamentary question, raised by CPI(M) MP John Brittas, asked whether the government was considering relaxing the policy restricting major airport operators from holding substantial equity in or operating scheduled airlines. It also sought details on requests for such relaxation and whether the government had assessed the implications for competition, conflicts of interest, slot allocation, airport charges, ground handling, and fair access to airport infrastructure.

BAN VS RESTRICTION

The government’s answer effectively drew a distinction between a government-imposed prohibition and restrictions embedded in individual airport concession agreements. It said the former does not exist, while acknowledging that the latter did, and that at least one request for a waiver had reached the AAI.

How a Mumbai start-up cracked missile cooling tech

The lean manufacturing success story opens a high-value defence export market

By Dalip Singh, New Delhi

A homegrown 10-gram cooling technology for missile seekers has broken a tightly guarded Western monopoly on such products. The journey to this lean manufacturing success story began with a chance meeting between IIT-Bombay alumnus Dr Pravin Salinkar, Co-owner of Techno Defence Pvt Ltd, and a lab director from the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) sometime between 2017 and 2018. It led to him accepting a critical defence manufacturing challenge.

CRYOGENIC BREAKTHROUGH

Engineers and technicians, mostly women, successfully built the strategic missile-cooling capability, known as the Joule-Thomson (JT) Cooler. It is a compact, miniature, lightweight, and vibration-free device that rapidly chills infrared (IR) sensors and focal plane arrays (FPAs) of missiles down to cryogenic temperatures around -196 °C.

Salinkar, 75, received funding under the Technology Development Fund (TDF) scheme of the DRDO in 2020 for the indigenous design and development of the device. This cooling is necessary because at ambient temperature, the infrared sensor or seeker—often called the ‘eye of the missile’—generates its own thermal energy, producing background noise (dark current). This noise overpowers the weak IR signatures emitted by distant targets. The technology provides missiles with precise target detection and tracking.

COMPLEX PROJECT

A complex engineering project, Techno Defence’s JT Cooler uses a design distinct from those of foreign players. The company developed specialised production techniques and equipment, leveraging small-scale and cottage industries. Assembly requires highly skilled work under a microscope, using pure materials in clean environments, backed by stringent quality controls to meet defence-grade reliability standards. This technology is not required for missiles fitted with seekers that rely on other systems, such as satellite navigation.

UPI is not a ‘cost’ to be recovered

The “someone must pay” argument is misplaced. Large foreign platforms such as Google Pay and PhonePe should bear the cost of UPI, not Indian merchants or consumers.

By Ajay Srivastava

The government has introduced a Bill in the Lok Sabha that could fundamentally change India’s free digital-payment system. By amending Section 10A of the Payment and Settlement Systems Act, 2007, it would allow the government to introduce processing fees or a merchant discount rate (MDR) on UPI and RuPay debit-card transactions through future notifications, without another legal amendment.

The likely first step is an MDR of 0.25-0.4 per cent on UPI payments above ₹2,000 made to businesses, but the charges could later be extended to other transactions. While the official argument is that UPI must become financially self-sustaining, the move also comes amid sustained US pressure over Indian policies that have eroded the profitable businesses of Visa and Mastercard.

Visa and Mastercard generally do not issue cards or lend money; they operate networks that connect customers’ banks, merchants’ banks, and payment processors. When a customer pays by card, the merchant usually pays 1-3 per cent of the transaction value, a fee shared among the banks, the processor, and the card network. UPI disrupted this model by allowing customers to transfer money directly from their bank accounts via a QR code, at no cost to either the customer or the merchant. Even a roadside vendor can accept a ₹20 payment without a card machine. UPI therefore replaced cash and millions of payments that might otherwise have used Visa or Mastercard.

RuPay increased the competition further. Its debit cards were widely distributed through public-sector banks and financial-inclusion programmes. Since RuPay debit cards and UPI payments had no MDR, merchants had a strong reason to prefer them over costlier international card networks. RuPay credit cards linked to UPI pose an even greater challenge, allowing customers to scan a normal UPI QR code and pay up to ₹2,000 from their credit limit without any merchant charge.

RuPay’s share of new credit cards reportedly rose from about 3 per cent in 2023 to nearly 16 per cent in 2025. The share of UPI-linked RuPay cards in credit-card transactions increased from about 10 per cent in FY24 to nearly 40 per cent in FY25. This explains the criticism in the US Trade Representative’s 2026 National Trade Estimate report, which objects to India’s zero-MDR policy and data-localisation rules. Put simply, Visa and Mastercard are losing fee income and want the Indian government to help restore it.

Brazil offers a warning. The US criticised Pix, Brazil’s successful instant-payment system, and even cited it when imposing an additional 25 per cent tariff on Brazilian goods. Despite tariffs, Brazil refused to weaken Pix, treating it as essential public infrastructure. India should show similar resolve.

Supporters of UPI fees argue that banks, the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI), and payment companies incur costs for servers, cybersecurity, and expansion. However, this argument misses the point. UPI is national infrastructure, like roads, courts, or currency — not merely a service provided by NPCI. The government funds roads because the economic activity and tax revenue they generate far exceed their cost. UPI provides similar benefits: it creates a digital record of transactions, expands the formal economy, improves GST compliance, and helps small merchants build records needed to obtain loans.

CASH IS COSTLY

The RBI spent ₹4,875 crore in FY26 on printing banknotes alone. This excludes the cost of transporting, storing, guarding, counting, and replacing cash, including 23.8 billion soiled notes withdrawn each year. Cash is India’s costliest payment system, while UPI is its cheapest. Charging for UPI and pushing people back to cash would therefore make little financial sense.

Ironically, India has already given American technology companies wide access to its payment infrastructure. Google Pay and Walmart-owned PhonePe process more than 80 per cent of UPI transactions. Business is shifting from one group of American companies — Visa and Mastercard — to another group that uses India’s publicly funded payment system. PhonePe could be the biggest immediate beneficiary if the Bill becomes law, as a share of MDR could provide substantial revenue and increase its IPO valuation.

The “someone must pay” argument is misplaced. Large foreign platforms such as Google Pay and PhonePe should bear the cost of UPI, not Indian merchants or consumers. India could charge them an annual participation fee of perhaps $100 million. These platforms gain huge transaction volumes and valuable insights into the spending habits of millions of Indians through a system funded by Indian taxpayers.

India should also enforce NPCI’s 30 per cent market-share cap, now scheduled for December 2026, to prevent any foreign-controlled app from dominating this critical infrastructure. Payment-data localisation rules should also remain to protect public revenue and India’s digital sovereignty.

UPI is already available in countries like Bhutan, Nepal, Singapore, Sri Lanka, France, Mauritius, and the UAE, with others likely to follow. India should not weaken its most successful digital public infrastructure merely to collect a small fee or satisfy US pressure. The modest cost of running UPI is far outweighed by its benefits. India should treat UPI as national infrastructure and a strategic global asset — keep UPI free, keep RuPay strong, and keep India’s payments policy sovereign.

Spacetech enters the second phase as start-ups build infra

NEW DEMAND. Earth observation, downstream applications set to gain traction. NEXT STEP. The shift is being driven by companies expanding beyond individual products across propulsion, spacecraft manufacturing, testing, and data applications.

By Jyoti Banthia, Bengaluru

India’s private space sector is entering a new phase, with start-ups shifting focus from proving launch and satellite technologies to building the infrastructure, manufacturing capabilities, and downstream applications needed to support a sustained commercial space economy.

“India’s private space sector is entering a clear second phase,” said Moin SPM, Co-founder and COO of Agnikul Cosmos. “Over the next 2-3 years, expect the ecosystem’s focus to shift from proving flight capability to building what a launch enables afterward”.

INTEGRATED CAPABILITIES

Agnikul is developing an integrated approach spanning design, manufacturing, testing, and flight. The company stated its in-house manufacturing capabilities have reduced engine production time to about seven days, a 90-97 per cent reduction compared to traditional assembly. This full-stack approach has also reportedly reduced the cost of building for space by roughly 50-60 per cent.

The company is also working on booster-stage recovery and an upper-stage architecture designed to remain useful in orbit to improve the economics of space missions. Moin predicts that the next wave of investment will target areas where single capabilities can serve multiple purposes, noting that “Propulsion and orbital computing will likely see the strongest investment”.

SCALING PHASE

The expansion extends beyond launch infrastructure into Earth observation and other downstream applications, which are expected to grow as demand increases from sectors such as defence, disaster management, and infrastructure monitoring.

“The next phase will be about scaling manufacturing, strengthening supply chains, developing supporting infrastructure and, importantly, building more capabilities in-house,” said Suyash Singh, Co-founder and CEO of GalaxEye.

However, industry players highlight remaining gaps in advanced manufacturing, specialised supply chains, and testing, which could become more significant as companies transition to higher-volume production.

Sony Pictures focusing on regional play, expansion of multilingual content: CEO

By Meenakshi Verma Ambwani, New Delhi

Sony Pictures Networks India (SPNI) is sharply focusing on strengthening its regional play in the country. The company stated it will be in “investment mode” for its regional business, which it expects to become a “profit engine” in the next few years.

The broadcast network is gearing up to launch its Tamil channel later this year, with a Telugu channel planned for next year.

STRONG FY26

SPNI recorded a strong performance in FY26, with consolidated total income of ₹7,064.08 crore (up 9.4 per cent year-on-year) and a consolidated net profit of ₹556.10 crore (up 15.6 per cent).

Responding to queries on the future growth outlook, Gaurav Banerjee, Managing Director & CEO of SPNI, noted that the growing middle class and its increasing purchasing power are driving consumers to spend more time on high-quality content.

“I remain confident that we will continue to see growth in television. We have been seeing growth in digital in a very big way... We also expect to see growth in our regional business," Banerjee said. He added that while the regional business will be in investment mode for the next couple of years, it is expected to become a profit engine thereafter.

CONTENT SLATE

Ahead of the festival season, SPNI announced its content slate across entertainment and sports. Highlights include:

• A show marking the entertainment debut of cricketer Rohit Sharma.
• Ajay Devgn hosting the true-crime series Crime Patrol 2026.
• Madhuri Dixit hosting Kon Honar Crorepati, the Marathi edition of Kaun Banega Crorepati.
• Sony LIV presenting MasterChef Tamil featuring Samantha Ruth Prabhu, and Tamil Idol with AR Rahman.

Banerjee emphasized that the company is building a wider and more diversified content portfolio across Marathi, Bengali, Tamil, and Telugu languages.

On the changing dynamics of the industry, he stated, “We need to expand the definition of television. It cannot just mean pay television. It must also mean free television as well as connected television”.

The company’s upcoming sports content includes the India tour of Sri Lanka, the Women's T20 Asia Cup, the Asian Games, and India’s all-format tour of New Zealand.

Newspaper 090826

 Here is the full text of the article titled "Retail participation in IPOs turns lacklustre as investors eye quality over listing gains," as published in the source:

MODERATE DEMAND. Only five of 12 issues in July saw double-digit retail oversubscription; six recorded single-digit demand.

Suresh P Iyengar (Mumbai)

Notwithstanding the early signs of a revival in the primary market, retail participation in initial public offerings (IPOs) has remained lacklustre as investors remained focused on the quality of issuances over the lure of listing-day gains.

Of the 12 issues that hit the market in July, the retail portion of only five was subscribed in double digits, while six companies registered single-digit subscription.

Retail participation in an IPO refers to individual investors applying for shares up to ₹2 lakh in main-board issues. Institutional bidders generally account for at least 35 per cent of the net offer for retail individual investors.

The retail portion of the ₹9,275-crore Manipal Health Enterprises — the second biggest issue this year, after SBI Funds Management — was undersubscribed as it received bids for only 93 per cent of the shares on offer. The company recorded a listing day gain of 11 per cent.

The retail portion of the SBI Funds Management IPO of ₹9,812 crore was subscribed four times. It registered a listing day gain of 7 per cent.

The funds raised and the number of IPOs in July have been the highest so far in 2026 as sentiment in the secondary markets has bounced back. In all, 12 companies raised ₹28,646 crore last month, against seven companies mopping up ₹2,718 crore in June, according to data sourced from PRIME Database.

LISTING GAINS DIP

Pranav Haldea, Managing Director, PRIME Database Group, said retail investors primarily come in for listing gains, as corroborated by a SEBI study.

With the average listing gain falling from 30 per cent in 2024 to just 18 per cent in 2026, retail participation has dipped, as is also shown by the average number of IPO applications, which have declined from 18.86 lakh in 2024 to 9.85 lakh in 2026.

“Investing for listing gains is a completely acceptable strategy. My only advice to retail investors, though, is they must not buy into IPOs that list at a discount, as they have not done any analysis on the long-term prospects of the company,” he said.

INVESTMENT AVENUES

Uday Patil, Executive Director, PL Capital, said the lacklustre retail participation in IPOs can be attributed to weak post-listing performance, higher valuations of all ones seeking alternative investment opportunities, and macro-economic factors.

“Valuation continues to play a big role. From the retail investors' perspective, gone are the days when most IPOs were heavily oversubscribed only to benefit from listing gains,” he said.

Gaurav Bhandari, CEO, Monarch Network Capital, said the average listing gains have collapsed to 8 per cent last fiscal from 30 per cent in FY25, with median gains at just 3 per cent. Retail participation in India has always been a listing-gain game, not an equity ownership decision. Moreover, issuers and bankers price in the entire next three years of earnings, leaving no margin for the buyer, he said.

Krishna Patwari, Founder and Managing Director of Wealth Wisdom India, said the SEBI data for June suggests that retail investors are becoming more selective and do not want to fund private equity exits.

Mainboard IPOs raised ₹28,646 crore across just three issues, with about 60 per cent of the issues comprising Offers for Sale, he said.

Here is the full text of the article titled "FPIs pumped in ₹12,290 cr in Aug 1st week," as published in the source:

Anupama Ghosh (Mumbai)

Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) turned decisive net buyers in Indian markets in the first week of August, investing a net ₹12,290.68 crore across equity, debt, hybrid and mutual fund segments between August 3 and 7, according to National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL) data.

The equity segment accounted for the bulk of the inflows, attracting ₹12,921.14 crore during the five-session week, indicating that the buying momentum seen in July has carried into August. August 5 was the strongest session, with net inflows drawing ₹9,323.38 crore. Inflows were ₹1,351.02 crore on August 3 and ₹1,431.45 crore on August 4. Outflows were recorded at ₹349 crore on August 6 and ₹466.29 crore on August 7.

MIXED IN DEBT

The debt segment was mixed. FPIs invested ₹621.69 crore through the Debt-General Limit route, but this was more than offset by outflows from the Debt-Voluntary Retention Route (₹354.20 crore) and Debt-Fully Accessible Route (₹377 crore).

Hybrid instruments saw net outflows of ₹570.74 crore, while mutual fund routes recorded marginal inflows of ₹49.79 crore. There was no activity through Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs). Overall, FPI flows stood at a net ₹2,245.57 crore on August 3 and ₹834.09 crore on August 4, before surging to ₹9,933.64 crore on August 5. Flows turned negative on August 6 and 7, with net outflows of ₹446.41 crore and ₹276.21 crore, respectively. Market experts attributed the buying to improving investor sentiment and stronger corporate earnings.

STRONGER EARNINGS

VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investment Services, said the trend of FPIs turning buyers, which was pronounced in July, has continued into August. He said FPIs continued to invest in the debt market through the debt-general limit and showed a preference for automobiles, consumer durables and healthcare, where Q1FY27 earnings indicated healthy growth.

He said FPIs continued to invest in the debt market through the debt-general limit and showed a preference for automobiles, consumer durables and healthcare, where Q1FY27 earnings indicated healthy growth. He added that while equity growth stocks, but cautious on US treasury yields, bond yields could attract funds to safer US bond markets and limit the durability of the buying trend.

Pabitro Mukherjee, Deputy Vice-President-Research at Bajaj Broking, said the buying was driven by US and domestic institutional investors and was largely driven by the de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, which boosted investor confidence and market sentiment.

Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services Ltd, attributed the positive mood to easing US-Iran tensions, better-than-expected Q1 earnings, robust auto sales and a balanced RBI monetary policy stance.

N ArunGiri, Founder and CEO of Trustline Holdings, said India could benefit from a broader global rally as global portfolio investors potentially shift from crowded AI trades to relatively undervalued emerging markets such as India. He said the geopolitical situation in West Asia remains the key variable to watch out for.

Here is the full text of the article titled "Uncertainty remains," including its sub-sections for Brent and MCX crude oil, as found in the source:

CRUDE CHECK. Hold shorts with strict stop-loss

Akhil Nallamuthu

Oil extended its decline last week as crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) lost 5 per cent and 8.5 per cent, respectively.

BRENT FUTURES ($78.30)

The price fell last week with a gap-down open. It slipped to a low of $78.11 on Friday before recovering to $78.30.

Although the contract has been on a decline in the past two weeks, it has now approached a support. A further decline from here is unlikely; we expect the contract to bounce back to $80. A breach of the $78-support can open the door for a decline to $73.

On the other hand, if the contract stays above $78 and rises above $86, it can strengthen to $91. If that is the case, it will turn the trend positive again.

MCX CRUDE OIL (₹7,424)

Oil fell on Friday (Aug) opened with a gap-down on Monday; it then slipped below the support at ₹7,500 to a low of ₹7,078 on Wednesday.

While there was a recovery towards the end of last week, the contract failed to reclaim the ₹7,500-mark. Since this resistance is valid, the bias will remain bearish where the price can drop to ₹6,500.

That said, if the contract surpasses ₹7,500, it will face a resistance at ₹7,800. A clear breakout of this level can turn the near-term outlook positive and lift the price to ₹8,200.

But now there is uncertainty about whether it can sustain above ₹7,000 in the next few days.

Trade strategy: Traders can retain the short that we suggested last week once ₹7,500 was breached. Target and stop-loss remain at ₹6,500 and ₹7,850, respectively.

Here is the full text of the article titled "Waiting for a trigger," as published in the source:

INDEX OUTLOOK. The Midcap and Smallcap indices look better poised for more outperformance

Gurumurthy K

Nifty 50, Sensex and Nifty Bank ended the week with a wide gap up last week. But they remained stuck in a narrow range all through the week. The benchmark indices were up in the range of 0.5-0.8 per cent. On the charts, the bias is positive and there is more room on the upside. We expect the indices to break above their resistance and go higher in the coming weeks.

FPI BUY

The Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) bought the Indian equities last week. This is a very positive sign as it is much higher compared to the previous two weeks. The equity segment saw a net inflow of about $1.35 billion last week. With about $2.12 billion in July, the month of August has begun on a positive note. It remains to be seen if the FPIs accelerate the buying momentum and aid the benchmark indices to go higher.

NIFTY 50 (24,570.65)

Short-term view: The outlook is positive. Supports are at 24,100 and 24,000. It can go up to 24,750 or 24,850 from here. A strong break above 24,850 can take it to 25,200-25,400. On the other hand, if it stays below 24,850, a range-bound oscillation between 24,000-24,850 can be seen. The near-term picture will turn negative if the Nifty 50 declines below 24,400. If that happens, a fall to 24,100 or 24,000 can be seen.

Medium-term outlook: Nifty is inching up within its broader uptrend. As we had mentioned last week, a decisive break above 25,000 will strengthen the case for seeing 26,000-26,500 eventually. We expect the Nifty to make a bullish breakout above 26,500 eventually. Such a break can trigger a fresh rally to 28,000-29,000 over the long-term. Nifty has to decline below 22,000 to turn the big picture negative.

NIFTY BANK (57,746.45)

Short-term view: The price action last week indicates that the index is getting good support in the 57,500-57,300 region. The near-term picture is positive to see a rise to 58,500, an immediate resistance. A break above this hurdle can take it further higher to 59,000 and 60,000 in the short term. The near-term picture will turn negative if the index declines below 57,350. If that happens, a fall to 56,600 is possible.

Medium-term view: The broader picture remains bullish. The rise above 59,000 mentioned above can strengthen the momentum. It will then clear the way for the Nifty Bank index to see 65,000 on the upside in the medium term. The index has potential to target 68,000-69,000 in the long term. Series of supports are there at 55,000, 53,000 and 50,000. Nifty Bank has to fall below 50,000 to negate our long-term bullish view.

SENSEX (78,419.77)

Short-term view: The index oscillated around 78,500 all through the week. Support is at 77,500 and resistance is at 79,500. We expect the index to break out on the upside and rise to 79,500 or 80,000 in the near term. An eventual break above 81,000 can then take the Sensex higher to 81,000-82,000 in the short term. A break below 77,500 will turn the near-term outlook negative. It will then drag the index down towards 76,000-75,500.

Medium-term view: The broader 71,000-86,000 range is intact. Within that we expect the Sensex to move higher towards 86,000, the upper end of the range in the medium term. A break above 81,000 can trigger this rise. Sensex has to decline below 71,000 to negate this long-term bullish view.

NIFTY MIDCAP 150 (23,362.90)

Short-term view: A strong resistance zone is holding well for now. Immediate support is around 23,200. If the index manages to stay above this support, then the chances are high for a break above 23,500 from here. Such a break will trigger the much-awaited rally to 26,000-26,500 on the medium term. It will also keep the upside open to see a breakout above 23,500 from here. If the index declines below 23,200 from here, then 23,050-23,000 can be seen on the downside initially. Failure to bounce back from around 23,000 can then drag the Nifty Midcap 150 index down to 22,800 and even lower. Such a fall will not negate our broader bullish view; it will only delay the rally.

NIFTY SMALLCAP 250 (18,354.55)

The index has risen and closed just above the crucial resistance level of 18,200. It is now very important for it to get a strong follow-through rise from here. If that happens, then a fresh rally to 22,500-23,000 can be seen from here. That will also clear the way for the Nifty Smallcap 250 index to touch 24,000-25,000 in the long term. Failure to get a strong follow-through rise and a fall below 18,000 can turn the near-term picture negative. It can then trigger a fall to 17,500-17,400 from here. That said, the expected rally will get delayed.

Here is the full text of the article titled "US MARKET OUTLOOK. The broader uptrend is still alive," as published in the source:

Gurumurthy K

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite indices witnessed a very strong rise last week. The Dow Jones and the S&P 500 were up 2.95 per cent and 3.58 per cent, respectively. The NASDAQ Composite on the other hand surged over 5 per cent. The significant rise last week indicates that the broader uptrend is still alive. It has also opened the doors for more upside from here.

DOW JONES (54,422.39)

The break above 53,100 and the rise to 54,400 has happened. Indeed, the index surged to a high of 54,749.47 and has come down from there. The rise last week marks the end of the corrective fall that was in place since early July.

The region between 53,200 and 53,000 will now act as a good support. Resistance is around 54,650. As long as the index stays above 53,000, the bias is bullish to see a break above 54,650. Such a break can take the Dow Jones higher to 56,000 initially.

From a medium-term perspective, the Dow Jones now has the potential to target 58,000 and even 60,000. It will only turn bearish if the index falls below 53,000 and then drag it down towards 51,000.

S&P 500 (7,757.63)

The three-month-long sideways consolidation has ended, and the S&P 500 index has made a bullish breakout. The region between 7,600 and 7,550 will now serve as a very good support. Any pull-back below this support zone is unlikely.

The outlook is bullish. The S&P 500 index can rise further to 8,000 in the coming weeks. The price action thereafter will need to be watched. A failure to break above 8,000 can drag the S&P 500 index to 7,600-7,500 again. But if it manages to break above 8,000, then there are good chances to see an extended rise towards 8,200-8,400.

From a big picture, cluster of supports are there in the 7,400-7,200 region. The index has to decline below 7,200 to turn the outlook bearish.

NASDAQ COMPOSITE (20,690.62)

Contrary to our expectation, the NASDAQ Composite index has made a bullish breakout above its resistance level of 20,000. This marks the end of the downtrend that was in place since June. It has also negated the chances of the fall to 13,000 that we had mentioned last week. Support is now in the 20,000-19,500 region.

However, there is not much room on the upside from here. The index can test 23,000 in the short term. But a break above it can take it further higher to 25,000, an important resistance. From there, a pull-back to 23,000 and even lower towards 22,000 is likely. As such we can expect the upside to be capped at 25,000 for the NASDAQ Composite index. The index is seen in the 19,200-22,000 region. So, we prefer to remain cautious rather than becoming overly bullish on the NASDAQ Composite index again.

DOLLAR OUTLOOK

The dollar index (99.60) remained low but was stable all through last week. The index was stuck between 99.40 and 100. Support is in the 99.20-99.00 region which can limit downside for now. However, a sustained rise above 100 is needed to get back the momentum and take the index up to 100.50-101 again.

Failure to rise past 100 can keep the dollar index vulnerable to break 99 and fall to 98 in the coming months. A wait-and-watch situation for now.

TREASURY YIELD

The US 10-year Treasury Yield (4.65 per cent) is stuck between 4.6 per cent and 4.75 per cent for more than two weeks now. The bias is positive to see a rise to 4.8 per cent. A strong breakout above the US 10yr Treasury Yield has potential to see a rise to 4.9 per cent and rise to 5 per cent in the coming months.

In case the yield declines below 4.6 per cent, the next support is at 4.45 per cent region which can limit the downside.

Here is the full text of the article titled "Understanding merchant discount rate," as published in the sources:

BL EXPLAINER. Is UPI becoming chargeable? Here’s what you need to know

Nishanth Gopalakrishnan (bl. research bureau)

The Parliament on August 6 passed the Taxation and Other Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2026, inter alia, intending to amend the Payment and Settlement Systems Act, 2007. This move has stoked widespread speculation that the government’s aim is to introduce MDR (merchant discount rate) charges for Unified Payments Interface (UPI) transactions, which are free until now. Here’s an explanation of what the noise is about.

What is MDR?

The MDR is a fee charged by banks or other payment processing companies (such as Visa or Mastercard) to merchants for each credit or debit card transaction made by customers. This fee typically ranges from 0.5 to 1 per cent of the transaction value for debit card transactions, and as high as 2.5 to 3 per cent for credit card transactions. The MDR compensates banks and payment gateways for the cost of providing and supporting payment infrastructure.

What is likely the impact on MDR with the passing of the Other Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2026?

Through the Bill, the government is seeking to amend Section 10A of the Payment and Settlement Systems Act, 2007. This Section currently prohibits any PSCOs from imposing any charge on a person making or receiving a payment using a specified electronic mode of payment. These modes of payment are currently provided under section 269SU of the Income-Tax Act, 1961, read with rule 119AA of the Income-Tax Rules, 1962, namely, RuPay debit card, UPI and QR code (BHIM).

Now that the new Income-tax Act, 2025, is in force, the government plans to remove the link to the Income-tax Act and instead notify those payment modes through the Ministry of Finance notification. Going forward, one should expect the government to understand which payment modes should be exempt from MDR rather than refer to the Income-tax Act.

Who is currently chargeable? Is RuPay or UPI currently now?

Currently, banks and PSPs are not charging for UPI. However, the government is paying a financial incentive for person-to-merchant (P2M) transactions of less than ₹2,000 involving a RuPay debit card.

The FY27 Budget provides an allocation of ₹2,000 crore for the scheme. Although this is lower than the ₹3,426 crore in the FY26 Revised Estimate, it remains well above the ₹1,397 crore in FY25 and the FY24 allocation of ₹1,923 crore. Besides, NPCI, which manages UPI, has also spent ₹2,270 crore in revenue expenditure and ₹742 crore in capital expenditure in FY27 (latest available data).

Will UPI become chargeable now?

There is little clarity on this at this point, leading to speculation. The government's move can be interpreted in two ways.

• One, given that the Income-tax Act, 2025, has come into force, the move can be interpreted as merely removing the reference to the old Income-tax Act, 1961, in the Payment and Settlement Systems Act.
• Two, the government could have amended the Payment and Settlement Systems Act to include a reference to the relevant provisions of the new Income-Tax Act, 2025. Section 269SU and rule 119AA of the old tax legislation have largely been carried forward to section 187 of the Income-Tax Act, 2025, and rule 133 of Income-Tax Rules, 2026. Instead, the government intends to notify the list of exempt payment modes itself, without referring to the taxation law.

Given that payment ecosystem players and the Lok Sabha Standing Committee on Finance have voiced the unsustainable nature of the status quo on current MDR, the government's move in this manner may be interpreted as addressing their grievance.

Nevertheless, expert opinion tilts towards the former view. According to Smita Jha, partner at Khaitan & Co, the amendment is simply a consequential legislative measure to preserve the operative force of this provision following the repeal and replacement of the Income-tax Act, 1961. Any introduction of MDR on UPI would require an independent policy action by the Central Government through a separate notification.

Will a charge for using UPI act as a dampener for users?

Consumers can reasonably expect not to be charged. Even in the current scenario for cards, it is the merchant who bears the charge. The move could, however, edge small merchants out of the digital ecosystem or they may be set at competitive rates relative to card MDR to encourage adoption.

However, merchants may pass on the cost of the sale of goods and services to the consumers if they are to pay MDR, thereby ultimately passing the cost on to the consumer. How this transpires in the long term remains to be seen.

Newspaper Summary 070826

 The following is the article titled "MDR of less than 0.25% on P2M UPI deals can compensate stakeholders" as it appears in the source material:

MDR of less than 0.25% on P2M UPI deals can compensate stakeholders By Lokeshwari SK, Chennai

A provision in the Taxation and Other Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2024, to empower the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to decide on Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) on UPI transactions, has raised the possibility of the Centre levying Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) on UPI transactions soon.

MDR is a fee charged by banks and payment processing companies on merchants for each credit and debit transaction. What can be the optimum rate at which the banks, payment service providers as well as NPCI, the infrastructure provider, can be adequately compensated?

THE RIGHT RATE UPI transactions consist of person-to-person (P2P) and person-to-merchant (P2M) payments. The thinking seems to be to target P2M transactions alone. Currently, of these, P2M transactions account for only 29 per cent of the total value of all UPI payments, according to a Finance Ministry release.

If we apply a filter, say, transactions of more than ₹2,000 each, then around 67 per cent of all P2M payments will be covered. That would account for around ₹39.88 lakh crore, alone going by the latest available data. The total value of UPI transactions in July was ₹79.88 lakh crore.

Extrapolating July data for the whole year and assuming a small 0.25 per cent MDR on P2M payments of more than ₹2,000, the MDR yield will be ₹17,416 crore annually. MDR of 0.5 per cent will give ₹34,833 crore, MDR of 0.75 per cent will get ₹52,249 crore and 1 per cent ₹69,665 crore.

WHAT IS THE COST? Currently, the Centre gives banks and other payment service providers an incentive for providing UPI service. For FY27, ₹2,000 crore was set aside in the Union Budget for the incentive scheme for promotion of RuPay debit cards and low-value BHIM UPI transactions. The revised estimate for FY25 was ₹3,496 crore.

NPCI’s financial statement for FY23 shows that it spent ₹742 crore towards capital expenditure. This spend is not just for UPI, but also for other payment systems such as IMPS, Bharat Bill Pay and FASTag. While there will be revenue expenses to account for, NPCI’s net profit margin was 36 per cent in FY23.

COST INCURRED According to an RBI discussion paper of 2022, the total cost incurred by banks, app providers and NPCI for each P2M transaction equals 0.25 per cent of the transaction value. But the above analysis shows that an MDR of less than 0.25 per cent may be enough to compensate all stakeholders adequately at this juncture.

Of course, there is reliable data on spending by banks on servicing UPI payments. Yet, the fact is that banks do benefit from higher savings account balances maintained by customers to service their UPI payments.

The following is the article titled "The double-edged sword of parallel power supply" as it appears in the source material:

The double-edged sword of parallel power supply

Having more competition in the distribution segment is welcome. But the financial issues of State Discoms need to be addressed By Richa Mishra

In the Indian electricity industry, the issue of parallel distribution licensing is creating a buzz. The critical question, however, is whether the existing grid can handle this transition.

In a statement made in the Rajya Sabha on July 24, the Ministry of Power said that it has constituted a committee under the chairmanship of Union Minister for Power and Housing & Urban Affairs, Manohar Lal, to discuss the issue of allowing multiple players for parallel distribution licensing.

While the example of Mumbai is often cited, where multiple players are working simultaneously in a small pocket, it cannot be easily replicated on a wider scale, according to those closely involved with distribution networks in the country.

So what is parallel distribution licensing? It is a regulatory framework allowing multiple companies to supply electricity within the same geographic area. The goal is to end regional monopoly. Is India’s power sector today ready for such a shift?

KNOTTY ISSUES Can regulators design a Cross-Subsidy Surcharge (CSS) that fully compensates for lost revenue business while keeping the market competitive? If not, State Discoms will be trapped serving only heavily subsidised homes and farms — which is currently dependent on erratic government subsidy payouts to stay afloat.

What happens if a private player fails to meet Universal Service Obligation (USO) or goes bankrupt? Should the State Discom step in as the safety net? These issues require clear answers on who bears the financial risk and how technical and commercial disputes will be resolved.

Speaking at the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) summit, the Power Minister had noted that while the Electricity Act, 2003 successfully brought competition to generation, transmission, and trading, it remains limited in the power distribution segment. The committee discussed how the current legal framework allows multiple licenses in the same area but requires separate physical infrastructure. This rule causes duplication of assets like cables, lines, and substations, driving up capital costs and consumer tariffs.

A comprehensive framework was recommended to encourage competition by unbundling supply operations from physical network management. This means that incumbent distribution licensees will maintain structural control over grid infrastructure. Consequently, parallel licensees may utilise the existing grid upon paying regulated wheeling charges, a system similar to how private players use separate infrastructure subject to State Electricity Regulatory Commission’s (SERC’s) oversight.

Individual State regulators were to establish detailed accounting and implementation guidelines to guarantee non-discriminatory access to the network and non-discriminatory grid access.

Private players will target high-end customers like rich urban pockets and industry. But losing this lucrative segment will cause severe financial pressure on State Discoms.

The Minister reassured stakeholders that the new framework explicitly protects existing utilities and their employees. Furthermore, the universal service obligation will apply uniformly to all licensees, legally preventing private players from selectively targeting only highly profitable consumer segments.

The proposed framework will enable competition in electricity supply without requiring duplication of the physical distribution network. Incumbent distribution network utilities will retain ownership, operation, and maintenance of their existing networks. New distribution licensees can utilise this infrastructure by paying regulated wheeling charges, although they also have the option to build their own physical grid where authorised by the respective State Government or State Commission.

All this sounds great, but how will wheeling charges shape up? And will high-value consumers targeted by every private players actually save money in the end?

Wheeling charges are usage fees paid to an electricity distribution company to move power through its network infrastructure. Under Section 14 of the Electricity Act, 2003, these charges enable the transport of electricity from an independent power producer or a utility to the end customer. In simple terms, wheeling charges are passed through to the consumer, but the methods depend entirely on the type of consumer you are.

THE OPPOSITION The All India Power Engineers Federation (AIPEF), representing power engineers and electricity professionals working in Central and State Power Utilities across India, has been vocal in their opposition to parallel distribution licensing. In fact, it has also submitted objections against the proposal of Eleven Power Limited for grant of a parallel distribution license in the revenue districts of Gurugram and Nuh.

Private licensees explicitly target high revenue-paying pockets, industries, and commercial premium consumers. These high-paying segments generate the profits that State Discoms use to subsidise poor rural households and farmers. Losing this revenue leaves public utilities with a massive financial burden.

Meanwhile, States such as Telangana are currently going through the arduous process of restructuring their power sector. Bifurcation of State-owned electricity distribution companies (Discoms) has already begun. Even this structural unbundling isolates heavily subsidised farming connections from the broader commercial and industrial markets. By acting as a fiscal firewall, the move aims to ensure that Discom losses do not compromise the financial viability of the commercial power grid.

Splitting the agricultural sector into a separate entity might improve financial strain, but the shift strains dynamically across two NBFCs can be deceptive. While the split is designed to protect the commercial grid, power sector experts and consumer groups like the AIPF point out that this segmentation could lead to more concentrated financial risks.

Reforms that improve efficiency and give consumers more choice are certainly a positive step, if the existing PPAs are honoured and the payment obligations of Discoms to power generators are protected. As the new framework takes shape, it is important that these gains are not diluted and that there is no uncertainty. More competition is essential goals, but they must be balanced with building infrastructure first.

The following is the article titled "Next challenge for India’s digital lending revolution" as it appears in the source material:

Next challenge for India’s digital lending revolution Excessive unsecured credit and high borrowing costs call for regulatory attention By Harishran Sandhu

India’s digital lending revolution has transformed access to credit. Loans that once required lengthy paperwork and multiple visits to a bank branch can now be sanctioned within minutes through a smartphone. Millions of first-time borrowers have entered the formal financial system because of this innovation.

However, this rapid growth has exposed an important regulatory gap. India has developed a comprehensive framework governing digital lending — covering disclosure, loan disbursal, data privacy, and customer protection. However, two critical areas remain under-addressed: how much a borrower ultimately pays for a loan and the total amount of unsecured loans a borrower can accumulate. These have become the next big challenges for India’s credit architecture.

According to the Reserve Bank of India, personal loans account for 30.7 per cent of total bank credit, reflecting the rapid expansion of retail lending. Within this broader market, digital NBFCs account for 77 per cent of all personal loans sanctioned by volume, according to a CRIF High Mark report. By serving thin-file borrowers through small-ticket loans, digital lending is no longer a niche product; it has become a cornerstone of financial inclusion for millions of Indians across formal financial networks. However, this growth should not come at the expense of financial protection. Many digital loans carry short repayment tenures and mandatory upfront charges. Although lenders disclose borrowing costs as annual percentage rates (APR), the effective cost of credit can differ materially once fees and loan structure are considered. Consequently, borrowers may not always appreciate the true economic cost of borrowing when making financial decisions.

BORROWING DECISIONS The RBI’s regulatory framework rightly places considerable emphasis on transparency. However, transparency alone assumes borrowers make informed and rational financial decisions after comparing loan costs. Behavioural economics suggests otherwise. Individuals seeking credit to meet medical emergencies, household expenses or temporary cash flow shortages rarely optimise borrowing costs. Factors like immediate need, financial stress and present bias often dominate decision-making. Implicit disclosure to a discretionary, but not sufficient, consumer protection mechanism.

Pricing, however, is only part of the challenge. The current framework imposes virtually no restriction on the number of concurrent unsecured digital loans a borrower may obtain. Once one lender reaches its internal exposure limit, another lender may extend fresh credit. In such an environment, the themselves can become signals for competing lenders to market additional loans. While every lender evaluates affordability independently, none necessarily assesses a borrower’s aggregate indebtedness across multiple lending platforms.

Borrower case studies demonstrate the consequences. Several households were servicing monthly instalments that exceeded their monthly incomes, forcing many to rely on fresh borrowing simply to repay existing loans. Although such distressed loans often represented only a small share of total outstanding debt, they accounted for a disproportionately large share of monthly repayments because of their pricing and short repayment periods. This creates a cycle of repeated borrowing that can quickly become financially unsustainable.

The RBI has already acknowledged that excessive pricing warrants supervisory attention. In 2024, it prohibited four NBFCs from sanctioning fresh loans after finding their lending rates and spreads to be excessive. These actions demonstrate that consumer protection concerns cannot be left entirely to market supervision. The next logical step is to complement supervisory interventions with transparent and fair market-wide standards.

This approach is consistent with the RBI’s dual mandate. As the guardian of financial stability, it has moderated the growth of unsecured credit through higher risk weights. As India’s consumer protection regulator, it has an equally important role in expanding access to credit does not expose vulnerable households to financial distress.

The RBI already possesses broad powers to intervene in interest rates, and the Supreme Court has reaffirmed its authority to set interest rate caps for its jurisdiction. The central bank has used these powers in the past for specific segments, demonstrating that intervention to address market failures is within its mandate.

The next phase of digital lending reforms should consider focusing on two reforms. First, the RBI should introduce a reasonable cap on the number of concurrent unsecured digital loans that a borrower may hold by leveraging the existing credit bureau infrastructure.

Second, it should provide greater regulatory clarity on what constitutes an excessive interest rate, rather than considering all mandatory charges and relying solely on the stated interest rate.

The writer is professor of finance, IMT Ghaziabad

The following is the article titled "Crude oil rises as traders eye Iran-Oman deal" as it appears in the sources:

Crude oil rises as traders eye Iran-Oman deal Bloomberg

Crude oil rose in a choppy session as traders awaited a final Iran-Oman deal to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the US position still unclear.

Brent crude rose near $81 a barrel, after swinging between gain and loss through most of the session. Iran said an agreement on proposed shipping lanes was “90 per cent” done.

Prices are still holding most of this week’s slump after a US and Israel-led resolution was closed to ending the Israel-Hezbollah energy chokehold. US officials have stressed that Washington is not part of the agreement with Oman and hinted that normalisation of the Strait will depend on the finality of a blockade on Iranian ports.

The following is the article titled "IT sector’s share of fresher hiring slumps to 24 per cent, says report" as it appears in the source material:

IT sector’s share of fresher hiring slumps to 24 per cent, says report DISTINCT TRENDS. The IT occupation index rose 10% year-on-year while the IT industry index fell 6% Our Bureau, Bengaluru

India’s technology hiring story is splitting into two distinct trends. While the demand for technology professionals grew 10 per cent over the past year, the IT industry’s share of fresher hiring dropped sharply from 32 per cent to 24 per cent, according to foundit insights tracker for July 2026.

The IT occupation index rose 10 per cent year-on-year, while the IT industry index fell 6 per cent.

Technology roles are increasingly being filled outside technology companies — inside banks, manufacturers, pharma firms and global capability centres (GCCs).

TECH WORK While the IT sector's overall demand fell 2 per cent month-on-month in July, the market across the board is moving for an increasingly experienced workforce. "AI adoption is creating a different mix of entry-level opportunities. Rather than hiring graduates primarily to build AI models, employers are increasingly recruiting talent to operate, validate and optimise AI systems. Operational AI roles now account for over half of entry-level AI hiring," said Tarun Sinha, CEO, foundit.

Roles that build AI systems — AI engineers (28 per cent of AI hiring), data scientists (9 per cent) and generative AI developers (7 per cent) — make up 44 per cent of entry-level AI jobs. Roles that operate, validate and direct those systems — data analysts (24 per cent), prompt engineers (12 per cent), AI operations (10 per cent) and AI QA & testing (5 per cent) — account for the remaining 51 per cent.

The shift towards experienced hires is also reflected in fresher salaries. Two-thirds of entry-level roles are paid below ₹5 lakh per annum, mostly concentrated in sales, customer support, operations, retail and entry-level services.

DATA SCIENCE At the other end, 12 per cent of fresher roles offer ₹8 lakh or more — and these cluster tightly in AI, data science, cybersecurity and cloud computing and product engineering. "The hiring in technology has not shut, but it now opens for candidates who are specialised rather than generalists hired at volume," Sinha added.

Fresher hiring in 2026 remains heavily skewed toward lower salary bands, with 41 per cent of entry-level roles offering annual salaries between ₹3 lakh and ₹5 lakh, making it the largest hiring bracket. The share of fresher jobs paying below ₹3 lakh per annum is 24 per cent, meaning nearly two-thirds (65 per cent) of entry-level hiring is concentrated below the ₹5 lakh mark.

At the higher end, 23 per cent of roles offer ₹5-8 lakh, while only 9 per cent fall in the ₹8-12 lakh bracket and just 3 per cent offer salaries above ₹12 lakh per annum, underscoring that premium fresher packages remain limited to a small share of high-demand roles.

The report also noted that GCCs raised their share of fresher hiring from 8 per cent to 17 per cent, making it the fastest growing giant of any employer type.

---

New recruitment table provided in the article:

Annual salary	Share of fresher roles
Below ₹3 LPA	24%
₹3-5 LPA	41%
₹5-8 LPA	23%
₹8-12 LPA	9%
Above ₹12 LPA	3%

The following is the article titled "Global sugar prices poised to rule lower this quarter" as it appears in the sources:

Global sugar prices poised to rule lower this quarter MIXED SIGNALS. Easing of geopolitical tensions and stronger-than-expected supplies may drag prices, but El Nino and geopolitical tensions pose upside risks By Subramani Ra Mancombu, Chennai

Global sugar prices topped 23 US cents a pound on the InterContinental Exchange, making it a deficit year as traders feared the market would be tight. However, a few analysts project a fall in global sugar prices during this July-September quarter next due to easing geopolitical tensions and stronger-than-expected supplies.

But some warn of the ongoing El Nino weather and renewed geopolitical tensions pose risks to production and supply. Raw sugar futures for October delivery on the InterContinental Exchange (ICE) ruled at 22.51 US cents a pound ($496.11/tonne). White sugar ruled at $582.60 a tonne for October delivery.

COVIG ANALYTICS PEGGED the sugar deficit at 3 lakh tonnes, compared with its earlier projection of 1 lakh tonnes surplus. Another analyst firm, Green Pool Commodity Specialists, pegged the deficit at 3.3 million tonnes (mt) from an earlier estimate of 1.76 mt.

Q3 PRICE OUTLOOK The agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, expects raw sugar prices to average 15.2 US cents in 2026, with prices in Q3 and Q4 reaching 14.2 and 14.2 cents respectively. "Our 2026 average price forecast for front-month ICE-listed #11 raw sugar futures to 14.9 cents per lb, representing a downward revision from 15.9 per cent," it said.

BMI said early Q1 and early Q2 saw prices rise on the back of lower production in India and Thailand. It said raw sugar prices have since corrected in response to a more significant rise in global sugar inventories, as year-to-date high exports of 15.9 mt were found on March 24, from which financial analysis wing of BMI noted they have increased by 8.8 per cent as of July 29, it said.

ING Think, the economic and financial analysis wing of Dutch multinational financial services firm ING, said in its 2026 outlook that raw sugar prices will average 15.4 cents per pound this year, with the third quarter the weakest as it is the peak of the CS Brazil harvest.

NARROWING SURPLUS The US Department of Agriculture, in its "Sugar: Markets and Trade", said global production is forecast lower by 1.2 million tonnes to 184.9 million tonnes in 2026-27 season starting October, with lower production in Brazil, the European Union, the US and Thailand.

BMI expects the global sugar production in 2026-27 to grow to 2.8 mt in the 2026-27 season, down from 7 mt in 2025-26. "Underpinning this is our forecast of a 2.3 per cent year-on-year decline in production in Brazil, where sugar consumption is expected to increase," it said.

ING Think said the sugar market will be at its tightest since 2017-18. BMI expects Brazil's output to rise to 42 mt in the 2026-27 season, down 4.1 per cent year-on-year. "We expect Indian sugar production to reach 35 mt in the 2026-27 season, which is 0.8 per cent year-on-year, though a downside, the principal concern being a strengthening El Nino," it said.

THAILAND TO THE AID "While our projections do point to a tighter market balance, and we note that relatively small downward revisions could tip the market into deficit, we caution against viewing the global sugar market as tight," it said.

The USDA has projected Thailand’s production in 2026-27 season at 43.5 mt, up about 20 per cent year-on-year. BMI said Thailand’s 13.3 mt stocks will help overcome any impact of El Nino weather on global supplies. It said the risk to its price forecast is geopolitical conflict, which could prolong till the fourth quarter. Higher crude oil prices could also result in sugar diverted to ethanol in Brazil.

The article titled "Crude oil rises as traders eye Iran-Oman deal", as published in the sources, is reproduced below:

Crude oil rises as traders eye Iran-Oman deal Bloomberg

Crude oil rose in a choppy session as traders awaited a final Iran-Oman deal to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the US position still unclear.

Brent crude rose near $81 a barrel, after swinging between gain and loss through most of the session. Iran said an agreement on proposed shipping lanes was “90 per cent” done.

Prices are still holding most of this week’s slump after a US and Israel-led resolution was closed to ending the Israel-Hezbollah energy chokehold. US officials have stressed that Washington is not part of the agreement with Oman and hinted that normalisation of the Strait will depend on the finality of a blockade on Iranian ports.

The following is the article titled "Monsoon revival eases Telangana’s kharif worries, State sticks to crop diversification" as it appears in the source material:

Monsoon revival eases Telangana’s kharif worries, State sticks to crop diversification

By KV Kurmanath, Hyderabad

Coping with a deficit for the past week across several districts, Telangana’s revived hopes for the kharif season. Until a fortnight ago, the State was worried as the dip in the rainfall-deficit category, prompting the government to draw up a contingency plan and asked for seeds to promote pulses and millets in place of cotton and paddy.

A few days ago, Agriculture Minister Tummala Nageswara Rao, citing the weather forecasts, said that the adverse impact of the El Nino was likely to persist throughout August, and asked farmers to be vigilant against taking up any risky ventures.

He directed the officials to keep adequate stocks of alternative seed varieties ready to supply to the farmers. The Minister also warned that the El Nino impact might extend into the rabi season.

POSITIVE OUTLOOK The rains over the past few days have significantly improved the scenario. “We are better off than we were last year. The rains suggest that farmers in several districts are in a comfortable position,” Jaipal, a farmer leader in the Medak district, told businessline.

Despite the improvement, the State government remains cautious and continues to push for crop diversification. It estimates that the area under cotton and paddy could decline by 20-25 per cent from last year’s level.

MILLETS, PULSES The State government had to undertake a second sowing reflects how precarious the situation remains. “Farmers who have sown cotton with the hope of a good season, are particularly vulnerable this season,” a government official said.

“These late rains are certainly beneficial, particularly for those who have sown late,” Prabhakar Vuppala, a farmer leader, said.

Data available up to July 29 shows that farmers sowed about 8.28 lakh hectares, compared to 8.49 lakh hectares a year ago. Maize sowing also declined to 1.9 lakh hectares from 2.19 lakh hectares last year.

In contrast, redgram acreage edged up to 1.92 lakh hectares from 1.75 lakh hectares last year. Greengram registered a sharp increase to 1.86 lakh hectares from 1.74 lakh hectares in the corresponding period last year.

Newspaper Summary 050826

 Boom and bust S Korea’s AI meltdown underscores global fragility

A 44-per cent correction in South Korea’s benchmark Kospi index, over 50 per cent of which was made up by just 2 AI semiconductor stocks — Samsung and SK Hynix — from its peak of 9,386 on June 19 to a low of 5,263 on July 29, has permanently altered the lives, and economics, of millions of South Koreans. While India has so far managed well, given the lack of an AI bubble here and superior regulation, it is now time for investors and regulators to be on extra guard. The ramifications for financial flows and stability need to be reckoned with as well.

That the financials of AI were in ‘Jenga’ mode is well known. Even before the correction took a harsh turn in the second half of July, per a Goldman Sachs report, as of July 13 over 1.2 million leveraged retail trading accounts in South Korea had triggered margin calls. Apparently, this represented around 3.4 per cent of the adult population in South Korea. The numbers would have been higher by end of the month. Such was the meltdown that the finance minister of the country had to apologise for giving green light for launch of speculative products like single-stock leveraged ETFs that amplify returns on the upside and downside. While darling semiconductor stock SK Hynix fell by around 50 per cent between June 19 and July 30, the single-stock leveraged ETF indexed to it plunged over 80 per cent.

For now, the issue appears to have been contained, notwithstanding the spectacular blow up of a multi-billion-dollar AI theme focused US hedge fund — Situational Capital. However, market experts and regulators should be alert to concentration risk at various levels. For one, the AI theme has now become too big to fail. The US Big Techs and AI companies are estimated to invest over a trillion dollars in capex in CY26, much of it in the US and the trend is expected to continue for next few years. Two, the wealth effect of stock market boom in South Korea and the US had been doing the heavy lifting in driving the K-shaped economy where consumption has been driven just by the top half of the population. Three, within the stock market boom and wealth effect lurks a bubble — with the S&P 500 trading at over 25 times forward earnings, even higher than its PE of 20 times during the dot com bubble. The risk here is how surging tech shares could drag down other stocks, as a few AI companies that make up just 2 per cent of S&P 500 companies are expected to drive 33 per cent of the earnings growth.

Thus, a triple whammy lurks if the AI boom hits a speed bump — a slowdown in capex triggering a US economic slowdown, severe market correction from bubble valuations, and financial and trade shocks. If this materialises, then it will have collateral damage in rest of the world, including in India. India has so far managed well, given the absence of an AI bubble here — thanks to lack of AI stocks to invest, and superior regulation. It is important to have adequate risk guardrails for a bubble-break scenario.

Why GIFT City needs to enable dual listing GLOBAL COMPETENCE. It will attract foreign investors, and thereby position GIFT City as a favoured choice for cross-border equity access in Asia

By V Shunmugam

On July 14, 2026, the International Financial Services Centres Authority (IFSCA) released a consultation paper beyond that companies list equity shares on GIFT City exchanges without a traditional public offer. It cites Spotify, Slack, and Coinbase as successful precedents with a minimum post-listing market capitalisation of $50 million. But the more consequential question it raises is the lack of depth of institution-building. GIFT City still has no secondary market to list equity assets that foreign investors choose to buy and trade there at their leisure.

Examining the GIFT City markets ecosystem, the key figures are familiar but worth restating. As of March 2026, the assets of the International Banking Unit reached $111 billion, up from $88.51 billion in March 2025, a rise of about 25.4 per cent year-on-year. Asset Management Entities from 162 to 240, up by 48 per cent. Total registered funds or schemes totalled 360, managing a combined investment of $39.09 billion in commitments, compared to $15.68 billion a year earlier — an increase of roughly 148 per cent. However, the data on capital deployment reveals an underlying structure: $15.36 billion of investments in GIFT City were allocated into debt, totalling $16.95 billion. GIFT City is essentially a debt-market, unless it generates assets held by foreign investors and remains a corridor rather than a true market.

IFSCA’s efforts to build a listed equity market have been slow to gain traction and the reason is structural. Currency risk aside, any financial ecosystem must faced a market already served by CME and the LSE — MF venues with decades of incumbency that regulation cannot wish away. GIFT City’s secondary market faces the same problem: market makers, clearing houses, custodians, depository participants, and broker-dealers — exist only as a response to retail and institutional interest. The regulation is present; the market participation is not.

THE COLD-START PROBLEM

The direct listing paper, as mentioned in the consultation paper, starts from the harder end. An unlisted company arriving at GIFT City has no prior market price discovery beyond its existing shareholder base. Foreign institutional allocators deploy through screens that require trading history, analyst coverage, and liquidity benchmarks. A company meeting a $50 million capitalisation threshold at listing may not pass any of those filters on day one. Direct listing of unlisted issuers is a building block; it could not be a foundation for a secondary equity market.

Instead, dual listing enables companies already traded on NYSE, Nasdaq, or LSE to also list at GIFT City using a fungible share or depository receipt. These companies’ price and liquidity are already determined in a robust primary market. Companies have already filed disclosures under IFRS or US GAAP. This approach doesn’t require newly formed risk-mitigation gears; instead, it allows existing holders of a known instrument to transact at GIFT City.

The evidence worldwide is clear. Alibaba’s secondary listing in Hong Kong in November 2019 raised $11.3 billion and achieved a first-day trading volume of $1.78 billion, accounting for over 10 per cent of HKEx’s total that day. By mid-2022, the average daily trading volume in Hong Kong was $0.7 billion, compared to $3.2 billion in the US. This represents about 22 per cent of global trading volume, offering Asian investors access to a familiar market for a stock they already owned. The London Stock Exchange’s International Secondary Listing category allows non-UK companies to access London markets without bearing full UK disclosure requirements — which is a model IFSCA could consider adopting.

COLLATERAL UPSIDE

A dual-listed equity market at GIFT City would benefit more than just the exchange. Custodians managing foreign-investor holdings require dollar-denominated infrastructure, daily MTM reporting, and standard margining. These enhancements would help upgrade the entire ecosystem from a licensed setup to a globally operational business. Depository participants would handle DVP (delivery versus payment) transactions, which are absent in derivatives-dominated ecosystems. Broker-dealers would establish research and market-making desks aligned with the Asia-Europe time zone. Meanwhile, legal and fintech firms specialising in cross-border settlements and smart order routing would find a strong business case, which they currently find either in Singapore or Dubai. Ecosystem participants need high-volume, commercially viable activity driven by consistent demand for services.

WHAT IFSCA MUST NOW DO

The IFSCA needs to design a regulatory framework that runs in parallel, beginning with an International Secondary Listings category. This category would include companies already listed on a recognised global exchange, along with simplified disclosure requirements. It should also include a fungible mechanism to prevent price divergence. The goal should be an 'access' model rather than a 'full prospectus' — should focus on governance, and require mandated continuous disclosure, corporate action reporting, and prime-brokerage standards, including cross-margining. In addition, seamless Central Securities Depository (CSD) connectivity, and integration with the clearing corporation, and regulatory cooperation/understanding on tax and AML/KYC issues must be established before any dual-listed stock is ready for trading.

GIFT City was envisioned as a gateway, not merely a tax-efficient pass-through. The recent listing announcement indicates IFSCA understands the core problem is being addressed. Enabling dual listings of globally recognised companies brings proven liquidity, enhances the ecosystem, and provides foreign investors with an equity asset class that is worth holding and trading in the Indian time-zone.

The intermediary community at GIFT IFSC must develop true global competence — not just be licensed but meet the high standards expected by global sovereign, wealth and pension managers. IFSCA should establish binding benchmarks for settlement timelines, reporting standards, and technology stacks. Ultimately, dual listing, globally capable intermediaries, and a regulatory regime will position GIFT City as a favoured choice for cross-border equity access in the Asian time-zone.

The writer is Partner, MC Cube.

Hurdles to innovation Governance and absorption capacity pose concerns

By Subash S. and Sunil Mani

India’s innovation story has become one of the country’s biggest successes. It has taken rapid strides in publication output and patents filed, with its ranking climbing to 31 from 138 in the Global Innovation Index.

Yet there is a paradox at the heart of this success story. India continues to produce impressive scientific and technological outputs while investing very little in R&D. Gross Expenditure on Research and Development (GERD) has remained stuck at around 0.64 per cent of GDP for almost a decade. More importantly, researchers are operating in a rigid institutional environment that makes R&D processes unnecessarily difficult.

Three studies — one, by NITI Aayog (2022), the National Academy of Sciences, India (NASI), and NITI Aayog, and the other by NITI Aayog’s report, Ease of Doing Research and Development in India — bring this problem into sharp focus. India’s challenge is not a shortage of scientific talent. It is a problem of turning that talent into sustained scientific and technological capability.

The Waiting Game

If there is one statistic that captures the problem, it is the time researchers spend waiting. According to the INSA-NASI-NITI Aayog survey, researchers wait an average of six to nine months simply to learn whether a grant proposal has been accepted.

Once approved, sanction letters can take another three months, or even longer, to arrive. Funds that lapse at the end of a financial year take five to six months to be restored. Final project payments may remain pending for more than a year. The cumulative result is that in a three-to five-year research project, administrative delays can consume well over two years.

The NITI Aayog report highlights how digitisation, yet digital portals and simplified processes have failed to change a bureaucratic culture in which officials are often rewarded for avoiding mistakes rather than for enabling innovation. The goal is not only process; it is incentives. The most ambitious recommendation of the NITI Aayog report is to increase India’s R&D spend from 0.6-0.7 per cent of GDP to 2 per cent within the next four to five years. India’s research challenge is not simply a shortage of money. It is equally a problem of governance and absorption capacity.

PRIVATE SECTOR MISSING

In most OECD economies, the private sector provides more than 70 per cent of national R&D expenditure. In India, the figure remains around 36 per cent. Yet the gap cannot be bridged merely through tax incentives and exhortation.

The challenge, therefore, is not persuading researchers to work with industry; it is creating an industrial ecosystem willing to invest in research in the first place. The NITI Aayog report reveals another uncomfortable reality: India increasingly resembles a two-speed research system.

At one end are elite institutions such as the IITs and the Indian Institute of Science, which dominate patenting, commercialisation, and advanced research output. At the other end are hundreds of state universities that account for the bulk of higher education enrolment but contribute relatively little to research. A more durable solution requires strengthening research in state universities.

One of the most underappreciated barriers to innovation lies in the incentives facing universities. Yet the deeper issue is that universities are rewarded primarily for publications rather than innovation. Although NIRF (National Institutional Ranking Framework) rankings weigh research, they put more weight on publications and citations than on technology commercialisation. The result is predictable: India produces research papers at scale but struggles to convert knowledge into commercially valuable technologies.

Subash S is Professor of Economics at IIT Madras; Sunil Mani is Visiting Professor Ahmedabad University.

STATISTALK. AI won’t steal India’s jobs. It’ll reshape them Compiled: Dharani Ganapathy | Graphic: Visveswaran V

Generative AI is set to transform India’s economy by boosting productivity across sectors, according to a Goldman Sachs report. The report estimates that AI will complement 42-48% of India’s non-agricultural workforce, while only 8-12% of jobs face substitution risk, pointing to augmentation rather than widespread job losses. In its baseline scenario, India’s annual labor productivity growth could increase by 0.4 percentage points, with the potential gains ranging from 0.1 to 0.8 percentage points. AI exposure is highest in knowledge-intensive services such as healthcare, education and financial services, while construction, mining and manufacturing remain relatively insulated due to their reliance on physical work.

Data Highlights from the Infographic

• Exposure to AI: The sectors with the highest degree of AI complementarity include Personal Services, IT & Business Services, Finance, and Education. Sectors like Agriculture, Manufacturing, and Construction show the highest percentage of "No automation".
• Productivity Boost: AI adoption over a 10-year period is expected to meaningfully lift India's productivity, primarily through the increased productivity of augmented workers and the productivity growth of re-employed substituted workers.
• Sector-wise Impact: AI is predicted to deliver the biggest annual boost to labor productivity growth in Education, Healthcare, and Finance.
• Knowledge Industries: These industries, including Education, Health & Social Work, and Finance, stand to gain the most, showing the highest share of employment exposure to AI.

Jet fuel demand in July slips to its lowest in over two years AIR POCKETS. Airline operations saw moderation, with carriers reducing domestic and global flight schedule

Rishi Ranjan Kala & Rohit Vaid / New Delhi

India’s consumption of aviation turbine fuel (ATF) fell steeply in July 2026 to its lowest level in more than two years as monsoon impacted air travel and carriers cut down on capacity across domestic and international routes.

According to the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC), India’s jet fuel demand fell roughly 4 per cent m-o-m and 1.5 per cent y-o-y to 699,000 tonnes on a provisional basis in July 2026. This is the lowest since December 2023.

For comparison, India’s aviation turbine fuel (ATF) consumption averaged at around 762,000 tonnes in Q1FY27 and roughly 748,000 tonnes in entire FY26. The decline in ATF consumption last month comes against the backdrop of carriers reducing scheduled airline operations, with carriers reducing capacity across both domestic and international markets.

DOMESTIC FLIGHTS

According to aviation analytics company Cirium, airlines scheduled 82,437 domestic flights in July 2026, down by around 8.6 per cent m-o-m from 90,198 in July 2025. International schedules also declined by 6.7 per cent to 35,366 flights, compared to 37,910 flights in July 2025.

The reduction in scheduled operations was led by the Air India Group, which continued to rationalise its network during the month. Air India operated 11,386 domestic flights in July 2026, down by 3,171 flights from a year earlier, while Air India Express flew 2,130 fewer domestic services. Among other carriers, IndiGo scheduled 1,611 fewer flights, SpiceJet reduced operations by 918 flights and Akasa Air by 262 flights, compared with the corresponding month last year. Although some regional airlines expanded their operations, the increase was insufficient to offset the overall decline in scheduled capacity.

ADVERSE WEATHER

The lower number of scheduled flights translated into fewer aircraft movements and reduced flying hours, both of which directly influence fuel consumption. Besides, the month witnessed significant disruptions at several airports due to adverse weather, resulting in delays, diversions and cancellations of scheduled flights.

Airlines also continued to face financial pressure from amid operational constraints and higher airfare, further contributing to lower overall fuel demand.

India to grow world’s 1st gene edited rice this winter SETTING THE BALL ROLLING. ICAR is expected to sign an MoU this month with US-based Corteva, which holds the licence for CRISPR-Cas9 gene-editing tech

Prabhudatta Mishra / New Delhi

More than a year after its announcement, the cultivation of two gene-edited rice varieties is set to be planted in the upcoming rabi season for large-scale field trials. The Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) is likely to sign a memorandum of understanding (MoU) this month with the US-based Corteva, which holds the licence for the CRISPR-Cas9 gene-editing technology. Highly placed sources said that while the ICAR had received two of the three approvals, including one from the Ministry of Environment, it is likely to sign the MoU with Corteva; once the third one is received, the agreement will be signed.

The signing of the MoU will pave the way for the commercial release of “Pusa DST 1 rice”, developed by ICAR’s New Delhi-based Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI). Initially, the MoU will be signed with Corteva and the Broad Institute (based in the US), which has the patent over the CRISPR technology. The other gene-edited rice variety is “DRR Dhan 100”, which has been developed at the Hyderabad-based Indian Institute of Rice Research.

SEED MULTIPLICATION

On May 4, 2025, Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan had announced the breakthrough of ICAR’s research. For the first time, two rice varieties had been developed using gene editing technology. Sources said that IARI had already kept about 2 tonnes of Pusa DST 1 rice, which is sufficient for starting seed multiplication in the upcoming rabi season, with trials starting around November.

Pusa DST 1 rice is derived from MTU1010, which is suitable for the rabi season in the southern States. Since MTU1010 is sensitive to several abiotic stresses, including drought and salinity, scientists edited the SDN1 salt or drought tolerant (DST) gene. It was tested in multicentre field trials during 2023 and 2024. Pusa DST 1 rice exhibited an average yield of 2,493, 3,508 and 3,731 kg/ha (under three salinity stress levels) against MTU 1010’s 1,912 kg/ha under coastal salinity stress, 3,199 kg/ha under inland salinity stress and 3,254 kg/ha under alkalinity conditions. ICAR recommends Pusa DST 1 rice to be grown in several states, including Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.

AI-DESIGNED ENZYMES

Before the MoU was signed with ICAR, Corteva signed a technology-sharing agreement. Announcing the partnership, the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (Icrisat) on August 3 said it had secured long-term access to CRISPR-Cas9 in order to accelerate research on one of the world’s most fundamental subsistence technologies, across smallholder farmers in India.

Scientists said there is no issue while using the patented technology because according to the Intellectual Property (IP) guidelines of ICAR, commercialisation of new research using the technology is prohibited, unless the patent holders or its licensee agrees to it. On the other hand, the ICAR scientists, led by Kutubuddin Ali Molla, showed that through gene editing, they could accurately edit plant genes without any foreign DNA, base editing and prime editing in crops.

    Monoculture impacting Punjab’s soil health, says study Our Bureau Mangaluru

A study by the Punjab Agricultural University has highlighted how the intensive rice-wheat monoculture in the State is associated with soil degradation.

In a written reply in Lok Sabha on Tuesday, the Union Minister of State for Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare Bhagirath Choudhary said that through several years of intensive tillage, the absence of a diversified crop-rotation system, and continuous monocropping had contributed to soil degradation.

Puddling during rice transplanting, while reducing seepage, reduces porosity and increases sub-surface soil compaction, affecting soil health and productivity, besides impacting management practices. However, these effects are temporary and do not significantly result in scientifically recommended practices such as crop rotation, inclusion of legumes, balanced fertiliser application, integrated nutrient management, use of organic manure and crop residue incorporation, he said.

The area under rice in Punjab increased from 19.69 lakh hectares (lh) in 2021-22 to 31.18 lh in 2023-24. While wheat acreage remained largely stable at 35.25 lh and 34.58 lh, respectively.

During the same period, the share of maize, pulses and oilseeds in the State's cropped area declined from 8.6 per cent to 6.2 per cent. In contrast, horticultural crops, including fruits and vegetables, increased their share from 6.3 per cent to 7.2 per cent, reflecting a gradual modest diversification as the rice-wheat system continues to dominate, Choudhary said.

WATER GUZZLERS

Replying to a separate question on the cultivation of water-intensive crops in water-stressed regions, Choudhary said that rice, sugarcane, cotton and jute together occupy about 32.54 million hectares, nearly one-third of India's total cropped area.

Recognising the need to promote crops as per the local water availability, the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) assessed the cultivation of major water-intensive crops against rainfall and water resources.

The study concluded that about 2.89 million hectares of rice was grown in districts receiving less than 650 mm of annual rainfall, accounting for 5.67 per cent of the country’s total rice area of about 51 million hectares.

Newspaper Summary 030826

 Based on the sources, here is the full text of the article titled "Kharif revival lifts fertilizer demand; urea continues to lead" as it appears on page 2:

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Kharif revival lifts fertilizer demand; urea continues to lead

MONTHLY SALES. Fertilizer sales hit 41 lt by July 17, against estimated demand of 74.2 lt

Prabhudatta Mishra New Delhi

Fertilizer demand recovered in the first half of July as kharif sowing gathered pace after a weather-induced slowdown in May and June. The latest sales data show that farmers continue to overwhelmingly prefer subsidised urea, underscoring the persistent imbalance in nutrient consumption despite the government’s push for balanced input.

Against an estimated demand of 74.24 lakh tonnes (lt) for July, the peak sowing month, the total fertilizer sales touched 41.09 lt by July 17, indicating that over half the month’s projected demand had already been met. Urea accounted for 25.86 lt, more than 62 per cent of its estimated monthly demand of 41.67 lt and nearly two-thirds of total fertilizer off-take. In comparison, sales of Di-ammonium Phosphate (DAP) stood at 5.74 lt against a projected demand of 12 lt, Muriate of Potash (MoP) at 1.07 lt against 3.54 lt, and complex fertilizers at 8.42 lt against 17.03 lt.

The sharp recovery in demand coincided with a revival in monsoon rains. Having improved monsoon rains after a slow start, sowing of paddy narrowed to 2 per cent as of July 31 from 9 per cent on July 10, while the shortfall in cotton reduced to 2 per cent from 15 per cent and in maize to 7 per cent from 20 per cent.

Overall kharif sowing was down only 1.5 per cent from last year’s level by July-end, compared with a 4.7 per cent deficit a week earlier. “There has been a significant rise in sowing of paddy, maize and cotton in July. Consequently, demand for fertilizers has increased. As the latest forecasts rise further in August on above-normal rainfall in most parts that were severely deficient in June, fertilizer demand is expected to rise further in August depending on the pace of sowing,” said SK Singh, an agriculture demand expert.

Reflecting expectations of sustained field activity, the Department of Fertilizers has projected August demand at 38.01 lt of urea, 9.81 lt of DAP, 3.27 lt of MoP and 14.23 lt of complex fertilizers.

Q1 SALES LAG

Fertilizer sales in the first quarter (April-June) remained lower than a year ago. Total sales of the four major fertilizers declined 5 per cent to 115.11 lt from 121.19 lt in the corresponding period last year. Urea sales fell to 65.06 lt from 68.04 lt, while MoP and complex fertilizers also recorded lower off-take. DAP was broadly unchanged at 16.25 lt. According to sources, the decline followed an unusually strong April, when fertilizer sales surged 25 per cent to 25.59 lt.

The government subsequently introduced measures, including linking fertilizer distribution with Agristack data in select States, to curb surplus purchases. Demand was further dampened by a weak monsoon in June, when rainfall ended 11 per cent below normal and kharif sowing lagged by nearly 20 per cent.

Based on the sources, here is the text of the article titled "Air freight rises 16% in June, Delhi tops with 1 lakh tonnes for third straight month" as it appears on page 2:

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Air freight rises 16% in June, Delhi tops with 1 lakh tonnes for third straight month

T E Raja Simhan Chennai

Airports handled a record 3.64 lakh tonnes of freight in June 2024, representing a 16 per cent year-on-year increase over 3.13 lt in the same month last year, driven by robust growth in both international and domestic, according to Airports Authority of India (AAI) data.

International freight remained the principal growth driver, accounting for 2.31 lt — significantly over 64 per cent — of the country's total air cargo throughput. International cargo expanded 19 per cent year-on-year, significantly outpacing the domestic freight growth, reflecting sustained strength in India’s export-import trade.

Airports handled 1.32 lt (1.31 lt) of domestic freight during the month, up 9 per cent, according to the data.

DELHI DOMINATES

Indira Gandhi International, India’s air cargo landscape, saw a significant milestone this month: the national capital’s airport handled more than one lakh tonnes of cargo in June, marking its third consecutive month. Bengaluru, Chennai and Kolkata, says the data.

Bengaluru further widened its lead over Chennai, with the gap in monthly freight volumes increasing to more than 12,200 tonnes. Bengaluru’s growth was driven by stronger performance in both international and domestic cargo, cementing the city's position as the leading air cargo hub in South India.

J Krishnan of S Natesa Logistics LLP, noted that disruptions in West Asia and the Red Sea route by merchant ships have resulted in increased demand for air cargo. This is because of the opening of the perishable market in the West and increased frequencies have all had a direct impact.

On Bengaluru’s increasing lead over Chennai, Krishnan observed that it has followed efforts to build reputation and improve both the infrastructure and process, keeping the customer interest paramount. Chennai’s its natural ship is a consequence.

Q1 GROWTH

During the first quarter of the fiscal (April-June), India’s airports handled 10.80 lt of freight, an increase of 12 per cent over 9.61 lt in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal. Growth despite the West Asia crisis that started in October 2023.

International cargo continued to outperform domestic air cargo during the quarter. International cargo expanded 14 per cent to 6.78 lt, while domestic cargo rose 8 per cent to 3.97 lt, according to the AAI data. For the momentum to grow, the focus must now shift towards expanding terminal capacity, improving landside connectivity, simplifying regulatory procedures, and attracting additional freighter operations, says CK Govil, CMD of CASBY Logistics and President, Airfreight India Pvt. Ltd..

These measures will enable Delhi to consolidate its leadership and support India’s ambition of becoming a global aviation and manufacturing hub, he added.

Based on the sources, here is the full text of the article titled "The economics of medical education" as it appears on page 3:

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The economics of medical education

India should be importing doctors, which can be funded by the revenue earned from importing patients

TCA SRINIVASA RAGHAVAN

Every now and then in India, education generally and medical education and healthcare specifically, generate a lot of heated discussion. After a while things go back to their original state as everyone goes off to a Bollywood movie or an IPL match. These two topics, I ought to point out, occupy opposite ends of capital intensity.

Primary education requires a teacher, a blackboard, and a few students, which is where my own primary education began: in the shed of a ramshackle missionary school. My father was the doctor in-charge of a very small town then.

Medical education, on the other hand, requires, about 18 years later, a lot of equipment and an enormous amount of initial investment to start a medical college, not to mention the operating expenses.

People who have their hearts in the right place, then tend to remain unaware of the most important aspect of all this: the economics. A medical education needs a lot of money, primary education needs a lot of time.

It’s as hard to create an even average level doctor as it is to teach a six-year old to read and write, let alone to count. So we come back to the most basic of all constraints: scarce money, time and money. Both are scarce.

SCARCE MONEY, WASTED TIME

Even if everything was free, from the high school you will be doing what you were doing without that education, you will find that after 15 to 20 years you go through all that trouble and boredom and misery.

And money, because unlike time, it’s a fixed resource when it comes to doctors. If we want a doctor for every thousand people, we need 700,000 more doctors. This means that we need, at 250 students per year from one college, 400x400 — 1,600 more colleges?

Economists call this the opportunity cost, in this case of education. It’s defined as what you lose when you choose option A over option B.

There’s another problem: without primary education you can’t have a doctor. So where would you rather spend those lakhs of crores? This, too, is a form of opportunity cost.

Which leads to two other questions. If you have ₹100 to spend on education, how would you divide it between primary and medical education? And who will bear how much of the cost? The Central, States and Centre?

India, to its credit, has been grappling with these issues since the mid-1960s. It has had mixed success, at best. Different governments have tried different solutions. Absolutely nothing seems to have worked because need-based demand has far outstripped any kind of supply.

Before we start beating ourselves up, remember that all countries are short of domestically trained doctors. That’s why they import doctors and export patients under the misleading name of medical tourism.

IMPORT DOCTORS

Alternatively, if you want one doctor for every thousand people the world would need about 10 million. The current stock of doctors is 14 million but which are distributed between rich and poor countries.

I have a radical suggestion: India should be importing doctors, not exporting them. India currently does allow the “commercial” importation of doctors. Instead, it imports patients, around 500,000 a year, as if domestic demand for medical services is low.

I must here a confession to make. Back in 1988 I wrote a research paper for ICRIER (unpublished because it was deemed too “journalistic”) saying that India should import patients instead of exporting doctors.

Now we are doing both, which means we have got one half right. Today it's the other half, the importation of doctors, which is important. The revenue from the imported patients can pay for the cost of importing doctors.

The massive supply-demand gap, meanwhile, explains the high demand for medical education. Currently as many as 25,000 Indians are studying medicine abroad. They spend around ₹7,500 crore each year.

This is seen as worthwhile because, apart from the social status a doctor enjoys, assuming a 40-year working life, say, 45 years are far more than in any other occupation. The average income of a doctor is around ₹17,000 a day.

This is an average, so the less experienced doctors who earn far less than the senior ones. Doctors in government service earn significantly downwards.

If this is restricted even a bit, the average daily income of a doctor would be even higher. No wonder then that the demand for medical education is so high.

Interestingly, not many doctors want to join government service in spite of the non-monetary benefits. It's too much work for too little money.

TAILPIECE

One final observation about our cockroaches: student memories are very good: let's hope senior doctors soon become mummies and daddies.

Based on the sources, here is the full text of the article titled "Monetary policy and persisting supply shocks" as it appears on page 3:

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Monetary policy and persisting supply shocks

Given the resumption of hostilities in West Asia and rising crude prices, RBI should consider raising rates?

Abhiman Das Smita Roy Trivedi

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of RBI announces its next policy on August 8, 2026. This comes at a time when geo-political uncertainties have returned.

The fragile agreements of peace and security in West Asia, it appears, did not last long. Escalating attacks and the blockade over the Strait of Hormuz pushed the brent crude price above $100 per barrel again with an upside trend.

Falling inflation in the past few months provided the MPC enough leeway to support growth. However, even when rupee depreciated significantly, the situation was seen changing quite rapidly, with upside pressures concurrently in WPI and CPI and lower demand growth prospects.

STORY SO FAR

CPI headline inflation breached the 4 per cent target in June. Further, the base effect of low and declining base will keep it high in the next few months. Our forecasts show higher probability of CPI inflation crossing the 6 per cent upper tolerance limit by Q3.

At the same time, downside risks to the domestic growth continues. Nominal GDP has been declining, from 11.2 per cent in 2023-24 to 8.9 per cent in 2025-26. Low overall inflation for the past many months primarily helped showing a reasonably high real GDP growth. High frequency indicators including IIMA’s Business Inflation Expectation Survey (BIES) indicate declining sales and profit margin expectations. The depreciation pressure on rupee hasn't eased either even with consistent intervention by the central bank. What would MPC do against this persisting supply shocks, slowing growth and increasing inflation scenario?

THE ‘SCISSOR’ EFFECT

In February 2026, the RBI revised the CPI base from 2012 to 2024. With consumption weights based on the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey 2023-24, the food weight in CPI declined from 45.86 per cent to 36.75 per cent. However, in the new series, the statistical association between food inflation and CPI-headline inflation has indeed increased and stood at 0.97.

In new series CPI headline and food inflation trends show some interesting features. There are times when food inflation fall is sharper compared to headline inflation and vice versa. In the past two years, this has happened twice when food and headline crisis cross each other: called the ‘scissor’ effect (Chart 1). This dichotomy has direct policy implications particularly when food prices decline faster and becomes negative. Consequently, farmers adapt their expectations to the low prices and adjust next period production accordingly. This results in sharp increase in food inflation in the next period, surpassing of that headline inflation (Chart 2).

The WPI headline crossed 9 per cent in July 2026 (with base revision to base 2022-23). Will this increase in prices in wholesale market translate into higher prices in retail market? As the index is a weighted sum of price relatives, it is likely to show up, at least in common items.

For example, the correlation between WPI and CPI food inflation is 0.97 in the new series. Ensuing CPI food inflation therefore is likely to be high with WPI food inflation is already hovering above 6 per cent. Further, the fuel inflation has also turned positive and rose to 30 per cent during last quarter.

This surge in the universal intermediate, fuel, results in the expected spill-overs to other components of WPI. Expectedly, WPI non-food manufactured products (NFMP) high inflation potentially manifests as the core inflation of the manufactured goods, has been running at around 4 per cent for the past three consecutive months.

Also, WPI is closely linked with GDP deflator (correlation over 0.80). It is likely that cost-based price pressures both in CPI and WPI will push up the GDP deflator significantly resulting in subdued real GDP growth.

RATE HIKE LIKELY?

First, with Fed keeping rates unchanged but dividend house pledging to ‘deliver price stability’, rupee would get support from a higher interest rate. From February 2025 till date, WPI and rupee shows correlation of 0.81: pass through of supply side shock to domestic inflation needs to be contained.

Second, rising crude prices almost invariably translate into rupee depreciation; periods of crude price correction do not necessarily halt rupee depreciation, as capital account outflows can outweigh the gains from an improving current account.

Second, the high growth (credit (with FCNRNR leading to cheaper deposits)), energy transition, inflation and persisting adverse supply shocks indicate playing with the traditional interest rate instrument. As monetary policy is forward looking and there is a lag long in transmission, a 25-bps increase in repo is not a distant possibility.

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Abhiman Das is IIMA Chair Professor, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad (IIMA). Smita Roy Trivedi is Assistant Professor, National Institute of Bank Management (NIBM). Views expressed are personal.

Based on the sources, the following text is from the "Twenty Years Ago Today" section on page 4, originally published on August 3, 2006:

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SAP plans to invest $1 bn in India over 5 years

German software major SAP said today it plans to invest $1 billion over the next five years to expand its operations in India. The move is part of the company’s decision to make India a strategic hub in the Asia-Pacific region. The company also plans to increase its headcount in India to 3,500 by the end of 2006 from 2,750 employees currently.

Based on the sources, here is the text for the snippet titled "New airport, Creating ‘credit’" as it appears in the "Below the Line" column on page 3:

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NEW AIRPORT. Creating ‘credit’

A whole new international airport at Bhogapuram may be fine for the business world, but who deserves the credit is still debated! Former CM N Chandrababu Naidu has claimed the project was conceived and land-acquisition done during his 2014-19 tenure. Not to be outdone, the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) has said the project was fast-tracked and given legs by the Jagan Mohan Reddy government. The Jagan regime too is claiming credit, saying they laid the foundation stone for the airport. The current TDP government under CM N Chandrababu Naidu is also not far behind, saying the airport is being developed in a mission-mode for the benefit of Andhra Pradesh. The project is being developed by GMR Group on a PPP basis. The airport is expected to be ready by June 2026.

Based on the sources, here is the full text of the article titled "The long and the short of decarbonising Tata Steel" as it appears on page 5:

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The long and the short of decarbonising Tata Steel

Steel giant invests in breakthrough processes for long-term clean transition, alongside the use of eco-friendly stop-gap substitutions

M Ramesh

Tata Steel is pursuing a two-speed strategy to decarbonise its steel-making operations — investing heavily in breakthrough technologies that could transform iron making in the medium term, while simultaneously deploying more immediate measures such as the use of scrap, biochar and renewable energy to reduce emissions from its existing operations.

The company plans to invest about €7,000 crore in two next generation iron making technologies — Easy-Melt and Hisarna. EasyMelt, developed by Tata Steel, seeks to dramatically lower the use of coke in blast furnaces by employing the reducing gases from the company’s own coke oven gas. The technology requires only modifications to existing blast furnaces, rather than new facilities. HIsarna, on the other hand, was developed in Europe, with Tata Steel as a key partner. It combines cyclone smelting with a smelting-reduction vessel, allowing iron ore to be directly converted into molten iron without first producing coke or sinter. The process can lead to significantly lower carbon emissions compared with conventional blast furnace iron-making.

These technologies represent Tata Steel’s long-term decarbonisation pathway and will take several years to reach commercial scale. In the meantime, the company is focusing on measures that can be implemented immediately. One of these involves increasing the use of steel scrap.

The company is close to commissioning a steel plant in Ludhiana with capacity to produce 0.8 million tonnes per annum using an electric arc furnace (EAF). Unlike blast furnaces, an EAF primarily melts scrap steel, substantially lowering carbon emissions, particularly when powered by renewable electricity. Tata Steel plans to establish two more EAF plants — one each in Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. Although scrap-based steel making is more expensive than conventional production, it remains commercially viable, company officials said.

The more intriguing innovation, however, involves replacing a portion of the pulverised coal injected into blast furnaces with biochar produced from agricultural residues and biomass. Tata Steel aims to substitute 5 per cent of its pulverised coal injection with biochar over the next four to five years, eventually targeting the technical limit of around 10 per cent.

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Biochar currently costs considerably more than the coal it replaces, making the transition expensive. Yet, Tata Steel intends to proceed. “We are still injecting because that’s the right thing to do,” Rajiv Mangal, Vice-President, Health, Safety and Sustainability, Tata Steel, told BusinessLine. “If there is no demand, no supply will come”.

The company believes its commitment could catalyse an entirely new domestic biochar industry. Tata Steel plans to work with suppliers to establish dedicated biochar manufacturing units near its steel plants, with long-term purchase commitments to give entrepreneurs the confidence to invest in production capacity. This, in turn, could create a new market for converting agricultural waste and bamboo into industrial fuel, providing farmers and rural entrepreneurs an additional source of income while supporting the steel industry’s decarbonisation efforts. “When I talk to industry, when I talk to chambers of commerce, I tell them that you should look at this as an opportunity,” Mangal said.

Renewable energy forms the third pillar of Tata Steel’s near-term strategy. The company plans to procure more green electricity, with a significant share coming from sister company Tata Power. At the same time, its integrated steel plants already generate a substantial portion of their electricity requirement from the by-product gases.

For Tata Steel, the message is clear. While breakthrough technologies such as EasyMelt and HIsarna promise to reshape steel making over the next decade, the company is unwilling to wait for them to reduce emissions. Instead, it is pursuing every practical lever available today — even when they come with a higher price tag.