Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 13, 2026

Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the Kuril Islands, whose occupation by Russia Japan disputes, for the first time on August 13, likely in response to the more assertive defense policy Japan has recently adopted. Putin visited the largest Kuril Island, Iturup – which Japan calls Etorofu – and held several meetings, including with Sakhalin Oblast Governor Valery Limarenko, Russian Pacific Fleet Commander-in-Chief Admiral Viktor Liina, Sakhalin Oblast Federal Security Service (FSB) Border Service Head Sergey Makhorin, and the acting commander of the Russian 68th Guards Army Corps (Eastern Military District [EMD]), Alexey Shvedov. Elements of the 68th Guards Army Corps are fighting in the Oleksandrivka direction.

Putin’s visit is likely part of the Kremlin’s response to Japan’s 2026 Defense White Paper, published earlier in August, and aims to undermine Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s efforts to improve Japan’s defense capabilities. Putin criticized the Japanese White Paper for identifying Russia as one of Japan’s critical threats. Putin’s comments addressed the need for Russia to “ensure security” on “all of its borders, all of its territories,” a noteworthy statement in the context of frequent Russian air operations requiring Japan to scramble aircraft in response. Takaichi strongly condemned Putin’s visit to Etorofu and reiterated Japan’s territorial claims to the Kuril Islands. Russia and Japan never signed a formal peace treaty at the end of the Second World War, and the dispute over the Kuril Islands remains.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues emphasizing Ukraine’s need for US-produced Patriot interceptor missiles to defend against Russian ballistic missile strikes during Winter 2026-2027. Zelensky stated in a CNN interview aired on August 13 that Ukraine needs significantly more Patriot interceptor missiles than it is receiving to repel larger and more frequent Russian ballistic missile strikes. Zelensky noted that Russia is exploiting Ukraine’s very low Patriot interceptor missile stockpiles and is launching twice as many ballistic missiles per month as it did in 2025.

Polish Deputy Defense Minister Magdalena Sobkowiak-Czarnecka stated on August 13 that the Polish government is considering supplying Patriot interceptors to Ukraine and could make a decision in the coming days. Sobkowiak-Czarnecka noted that Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz is inclined to approve the transfer to ensure that Ukraine can intercept Russian missiles over Ukrainian territory before they fly into Polish airspace. A Russian Kh-101 cruise missile crashed in eastern Poland on the night of July 29 to 30, although no Russian ballistic missiles have yet landed in Poland. Russia’s increasing use of ballistic missiles reflects Putin’s belief that Russia can exploit the ongoing Patriot interceptor missile shortage to pressure Ukraine into accepting Russia’s maximalist demands.

An improvised explosive device (IED) explosion in occupied Sevastopol reportedly killed Russian Captain 1st Rank Robert Shageev on August 13. Captain Shageev reportedly served as commander of the Zaporizhzhia – Ukraine’s only submarine at the time – before defecting to Russia in 2014 and serving as the deputy commander of the Russian 4th Separate Submarine Brigade (Black Sea Fleet). Russian officials confirmed the death of an individual serving in the Russian Ministry of Defense but not his identity.

Key Takeaways

1. Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the Kuril Islands for the first time on August 13, likely in response to Japan's more assertive defense policy.
2. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues emphasizing Ukraine’s need for Patriot interceptor missiles for the winter 2026/2027.
3. An IED explosion in occupied Sevastopol reportedly killed Russian Captain 1st Rank Robert Shageev.
4. Ukrainian forces conducted a large strike against Russian oil infrastructure and Wildberries facilities in the Bashkortostan Republic; Russia launched 133 drones against Ukraine overnight.
5. Russian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk and Slovyansk directions.

---

Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation

Ukrainian forces conducted a large strike against Russian oil infrastructure and Wildberries facilities in the Bashkortostan Republic on the night of August 12 to 13. The Ukrainian General Staff reported striking the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat oil refining and petrochemical complex in Salavat, which has a refining capacity of up to 10 million tons per year. Bashkortostan Republic Governor Radiy Khabirov confirmed drone debris fell in an industrial zone near Salavat. Additionally, Ukrainian drones targeted a Wildberries logistics center near Chishmy, reportedly injuring two. Estimates suggest Wildberries may have to pay between 147 and 223 billion rubles (about $1.77 to $2.68 billion) to restore its infrastructure, with total damages to the company and its sellers estimated between 600 and 800 billion rubles (about $7.22 to 9.63 billion).

Ukrainian sources provided an updated battle damage assessment (BDA) of recent strikes against the Black Sea Fleet base in Novorossiysk, reporting damage to four Russian ships: the frigates Admiral Makarov and Admiral Essen, the missile ship Buyan-M, and the patrol ship Vasil Bykov. Strikes also hit the Grushovaya oil depot, the Sheshkaris oil terminal, and a 30N6E radar of the S-300 system. The Orsknefteorgsintez oil refinery in Orsk, Orenburg Oblast, also fully halted operations following an August 11 strike, with repairs expected to take up to six months.

Russian Supporting Effort: Northern Axis (Sumy Oblast)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Sumy Oblast on August 12 and 13 but did not advance.

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast

Russian forces are struggling to advance south from Vovchansk amid continued offensive operations along the international border. Forward Russian assault groups penetrated Ukrainian lines in several areas northeast and east of Vovchansk but failed to make significant gains toward Bily Kolodyaz. Russian forces have infiltrated into Hrafske and Symynivka but are struggling to supply these troops. Conflicting reports exist regarding Ivanivka, with sources refuting claims that Russian forces have entered the settlement. In the Velykyi Burluk direction, Russian forces continued operations without confirmed advances, despite milblogger claims of entering Vilkhuvatka.

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Oskil River

Russian forces are attempting to push Ukrainian forces from the east bank of the Oskil River east of Kupyansk to divide the Ukrainian bridgehead. Elements of the Russian 47th Tank Division reportedly consolidated in Kurylivka and reached the eastern outskirts of Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi since August 11. A Russian milblogger claimed advances in northern Kutkivka on the west bank of the Oskil River.

Ukrainian forces continued a strike campaign in occupied Luhansk Oblast, striking a fuel depot near Dovzhansk, a power company in Rubizhne, and a gas compressor station in Rovenky, among other targets.

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast

Ukrainian forces recently advanced or maintained positions southeast of Slovyansk, specifically in the northwestern outskirts of Pyskunivka, despite prior Russian claims to the area. Russian forces appear to be focusing operations east and southeast of Lyman, having consolidated positions in Dibrova and the forest area between Lyman and Yampil. Ukrainian counterattacks near Drobysheve and positions near Zarichne are constraining Russian advances. Russian forces are reportedly using large numbers of glide bombs in the Lyman direction to strike crossings and logistics.

In the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, Russian forces have decreased the size of infiltration groups to single servicemembers guided by drones. Heavy glide bomb strikes are targeting Druzhkivka. Russian sources continue to post likely AI-altered footage of flag-raising events, such as in Petrivka, as part of a cognitive warfare effort to exaggerate advances.

In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces are using interceptor drones equipped with Molniya fixed-wing loitering munitions to protect their strike drones from Ukrainian interception. In the Oleksandrivka direction, geolocated footage supports Ukrainian reports of liberating 26 settlements during a counteroffensive operation from January 29 to August 12.

Russian Supporting Effort: Southern Axis

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction and western Zaporizhia Oblast without advancing. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian drone control point near Myrne. In Kherson Oblast, Ukrainian forces struck a material depot near Kalanchak and an ammunition depot in Novyi Hai.

Intermediate-range strikes against occupied Crimea targeted a control tower at Saki Airfield, a drone repeater near Chornomorske, and a Nebo-U radar station near Sevastopol. Damage was reported at the Balaklava Thermal Power Plant, causing power outages in Sevastopol. Ukrainian forces also reportedly began striking Wildberries trucks transporting goods to Crimea to disrupt logistics.

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign

On the night of August 12 to 13, Russian forces launched 133 drones, including Shahed- and Gerbera-type strike drones and Parodiya-type decoys. Ukrainian forces downed 111 drones. Russian drones struck 15 locations, impacting commercial, logistics, and residential infrastructure across several oblasts. Notably, jet-powered drones deliberately struck the locomotives of two trains in Odesa Oblast, killing a driver and his assistant.

Significant Activity in Belarus

Nothing significant to report.