Newspaper Summary - 080226

 

Trump cuts duty on slew of goods from India; New Delhi reciprocates

Amiti Sen New Delhi

In a major relief for India’s exporters, the US has halved tariffs on labour-intensive Indian goods — including textiles, leather, footwear and plastics — to 25 per cent through an executive order issued on Friday. Washington has also agreed to further cut the tariff to 18 per cent, expected to be notified through another executive order next week.

However, the rollback of the 25 per cent ad valorem tariff, effective February 7, is explicitly linked to India’s “commitment” to stop purchasing Russian oil. In the order, US President Donald Trump warned that the levies could be reinstated if such imports resume.

HEDGING ON OIL

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal deflected questions on the US claim regarding India’s commitment on Russian oil, while the Ministry of External Affairs reiterated its earlier position, saying energy security for 1.4 billion Indians remains the government’s supreme priority, with a focus on diversifying energy sources.

In a goodwill gesture, India agreed to eliminate import duties on the iconic American motorcycle Harley-Davidson — a long-standing demand of Trump — an official said. India has also committed to eliminate or reduce duties on almost all US industrial goods and a range of agricultural products, according to the joint statement outlining the framework of the interim trade deal released on Saturday.

India also intends to purchase $500 billion worth of US energy products, aircraft and aircraft parts, precious metals, technology products and coking coal over the next five years, the statement said.

DAIRY, AGRI KEPT OUT

New Delhi has protected all its red lines, with no market access offered for sensitive agricultural products and the entire dairy sector, Goyal told the media on Saturday.

“India’s farmers and MSMEs will not be hurt by the pact… the two countries have come to a very fair, equitable, and balanced agreement,” Goyal said.

Several US products are set to become cheaper in India following the duty cuts, including automobiles (excluding EVs), cosmetics, life-saving medicines, medical equipment, wine and alcohol (under quotas), select fruits and vegetables, soybean oil and certain animal feed products.

US CONCESSION

The US, too, has agreed to eliminate or reduce tariffs on multiple items under the pact. “About $44 billion worth of Indian exports will attract zero reciprocal duty in the US,” Goyal said.

These duty cuts will be implemented once the interim trade agreement is finalised, likely some time in March, Indian officials said.

Fading tailwinds after the rise

Akhil Nallamuthu | Gurumurthy K bl. research bureau

TURNING POINT. Base metals turned red hot last year and staged a strong rally. The momentum seems to be slowing down now. Have the prices seen their top or is this a pause before the next leg of rally? Here is an analysis.

Base metals have been flying high in recent months. The London Metal Exchange Index (LMEX), a benchmark tracking the performance of six primary metals — aluminium, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin — touched a record high of 5,618.40 on January 29. This has been an extended rise for the index after surging about 30 per cent last year. The year 2025 has been the best one for the LMEX since 2021, when it surged about 32 per cent.

Key base metals prices also hit important levels in late-January. Copper futures touched its lifetime high of $14,527.50 per tonne, while both aluminium and zinc touched their four-year highs ($3,356 and $3,575.50 per tonne respectively) on January 29 this year. Lead futures marked a 10-month high of $2,102 per tonne on January 15; and nickel futures rose to a two-year high of $19,160 per tonne on January 26.

While there had been talks about supply constraints and a potential increase in demand, a major trigger for the rally last year was the dollar debasement theme.

DOLLAR SHIFT AND EARLY TRIGGERS

Since early 2025, the dollar index had been on a decline. By the end of June, the dollar index had lost nearly 11 per cent. From the charts, it is evident that the March-June period was when base metals started gaining traction.

Of course, there were triggers from the ground as well. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, one of the largest in the world, witnessed a deadly mudslide that severely impacted operations. It is estimated that about 600,000 tonnes of copper supply was disrupted due to this incident, which is nearly 3 per cent of the global copper mine production. Also, demand for the metal from China in 2025 grew at an estimated rate of 5.5 per cent (until November), one of the reasons for copper to outperform its peers.

Not just copper, China’s consumption of lead, particularly in the production of cars and e-bikes, supported lead prices. For zinc, after declining over the past three years, demand recovery in Europe, aided by improvement in construction and industrial activity, helped push prices higher.

With respect to aluminium, on the supply side, global production growth slowed sharply to 1.1 per cent in 2025, rising at the weakest pace in five years. This reflected a combination of China nearing its long-anticipated 45-million tonne production cap and supply-chain disruptions in key producing regions such as the Gulf. While production continued to grow marginally, the loss of momentum reinforced expectations that future supply expansion would be limited, lending support to aluminium prices.

INVESTORS CHASE MOMENTUM

As these events unfolded, investors began chasing metals, pushing prices further higher. The major push came around August, which is evident from the Commitment of Traders (COT) data.

Net long positions in copper futures on COMEX rose sharply from 18,249 contracts on August 5, 2025, to a peak of 75,619 contracts on December 23, 2025. In aluminium futures, investors were net short by 1,332 contracts on August 5, 2025, but at the peak, they turned net long with 356 contracts on December 9, 2025. This played a bigger role in sustaining the rally.

OUTLOOK TURNS LESS SUPPORTIVE

It is not all rosy for base metals going ahead, as demand for most metals is expected to soften in 2026. What contributed to the rally in metals in 2025 may not be present in 2026. The dollar index, which fell sharply till June last year, has since stabilised. Despite the impact of tariffs, the US economy appears to be holding up well. As it stands, the market may be nearing the end of the rate-cut cycle, which had been a drag on the greenback.

Consequently, investors who sold the dollar fearing tariff-related risks may no longer be inclined to maintain aggressive short positions given the resilience of the US economy. The confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, who is perceived to be hawkish, can be positive for the dollar.

China’s demand outlook also appears soft amid a slowdown in economic activity. Fixed asset investment recorded negative growth for four consecutive months between September and December last year, while the real estate climate index declined from about 94 in March 2025 to 91.5 in December 2025.

SUPPLY OVERHANG

From a supply-demand perspective, most metals are expected to be supplied in excess of consumption, keeping market balances in surplus. Copper is expected to see excess supply nearly double to 206,000 tonnes in the first 11 months of 2025. Zinc’s surplus in 2026 is projected to more than triple to 271,000 tonnes compared to 85,000 tonnes in 2025. The surplus in nickel and lead are also expected to rise by 25 per cent and 12 per cent to 261,000 tonnes and 102,000 tonnes respectively.

INVESTMENT DEMAND WANE

Investor positioning has also started to reflect these concerns. Net long positions in copper futures on COMEX fell to 58,018 contracts on January 27 from the December 2025 peak. Similarly, the net long positions in aluminium futures dropped to 71 contracts on January 27 from a peak of 356 contracts. Moreover, elevated metal prices themselves could act as a demand dampener.

Overall, the fuel that powered the recent rally in base metals appears to be waning. As the year progresses, excess supply, soft demand and the possibility of a stronger dollar could put downward pressure on prices. The market, therefore, appears to be past its peak — at least for the time being.

What could break our bearish view is a surprise stimulus package or strategic buying from Beijing or an unforeseen disruption in supply chain.

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Here is what the charts say

A long-term analysis of base metals traded in London Metal Exchange (LME)

LMEX (5,323): The LMEX has come down after making a high of 5,618.40 earlier last month. The trend remains up, with support in the 5,100-4,950 region. However, there is not much room left on the upside. Strong resistances are at 5,800 and 5,900. A reversal from this resistance zone can drag the LMEX down to 5,200 or 5,000.

LME Aluminum ($3,085): Immediate support is at $2,960. A reversal from here can take it to $3,400. Broadly, $3,400-$3,600 is a wide resistance zone. A break below $2,950 can drag the contract down to $2,700-$2,650 by year-end.

LME Copper ($12,994): Immediate support is at $12,300. A rise can take it to $15,000-$15,500. This is a strong resistance zone that can halt the rally. A reversal from there could drag the price down to $12,500-$12,300 and eventually break $12,300 to fall to $11,600 and $11,200.

LME Zinc ($3,345): A crucial channel resistance is at $3,550. Short-term support is at $3,170-$3,150. If this holds, a rise back to $3,400-$3,500 is possible. Eventually, a break below $3,150 could drag the price down to $2,900 and $2,850.

LME Lead ($1,960): The contract was stuck between $1,830 and $2,110 through 2025. The bias remains negative. There are high chances for the contract to break below $1,830, dragging it down to $1,750 and $1,550 in the next couple of years.

LME Nickel ($17,090): Better placed on charts compared to other metals. Found support in the $15,000-$14,000 region. Short-term rise to $20,000 or $22,000 is possible. Failure to rise past $22,000 could lead back to $16,500-$15,000.

Lessons for IT investors from AI’s iPhone moment

Hari Viswanath bl. research bureau

MARKET WISE. Investing in the current context must be based on caution and factoring for multiple outcomes and not by ‘buy the dip’ mentality.

If you have been a participant in the stock markets for a decade or longer, the week gone by was exceptionally unusual due to the rout in global enterprise software stocks, which have been underperforming the markets significantly over the last year. Despite "experts" claiming these stocks would be the beneficiaries of the AI revolution, Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities noted that this structural sell-off is unlike anything he has seen in 25 years.

THE TRIGGER AND THE iPHONE SAGA

The trigger for this rout was a plug-in introduced by Claude in its AI platform designed to perform tasks across legal, sales, marketing, and data analysis, which created sudden concerns about AI disrupting the software industry. History offers a profound lesson through the launch of the iPhone on January 9, 2007. Steve Jobs wowed the audience with a product of unprecedented differentiation and sophistication that took the entire industry by surprise.

Following the launch, Google immediately junked its low-end handset operating system project to go "all in" on a high-end project with a touch screen interface, which became the Android operating system. Today, Android holds around 70 per cent market share.

SEEDS OF DESTRUCTION

While the iPhone sowed the seeds of success for some, it sowed the seeds of destruction for global giants like Nokia and BlackBerry. Between the unveiling and the actual launch in June 2007, not one top executive from leading handset companies acknowledged how disruptive the iPhone was to their business. Nokia management noted they welcomed competition, while then-CEO of Microsoft, Steve Ballmer, infamously mocked the iPhone for its $500 price and lack of a keyboard, pointing out that Apple was selling zero phones while Microsoft sold millions.

Initially, these executives appeared correct as Nokia’s market cap crossed $150 billion and BlackBerry (then Research in Motion) crossed $100 billion towards the end of 2007. However, this was merely the starting point of a permanent tectonic shift. By 2012, Apple was raking in around 70 per cent of global mobile handset industry profits with just a 10 per cent unit share.

The impact was destructive:

• Nokia’s handset business was acquired for $7.2 billion, only to be entirely written off in 2016.
• BlackBerry’s market cap has fallen by over 98 per cent from its 2007 peak.
• Motorola’s handset business was bought by Google for $12.5 billion in 2011, primarily to acquire thousands of patents to counter "The Rockstar Consortium"—a group formed by incumbents like Nokia, BlackBerry, and Apple to stall Android.

By 2013-14, the industry was unrecognizable compared to 2007, with new leaders and wiped-out incumbents.

NOTE FOR INVESTORS

Technological innovation can rewire entire industries, and the denials and unpreparedness of CXOs serve as a warning sign. Current investing must be based on caution, factoring for multiple outcomes rather than a "buy the dip" mentality. As Warren Buffett famously said: "Don’t ask a barber whether you need a haircut"; similarly, views from IT industry CEOs who claim to be well-positioned for AI must be taken with a grain of salt when performance does not reflect it.

In contrast to IT services, SaaS companies have delivered good performance recently, yet their stocks have been routed. For example, Adobe is trading at a trailing PE of 15.5 times (and 11.4 times on a forward basis) despite delivering 15 per cent net profit growth and 30 per cent margins.

A WORD OF CAUTION ON INDIAN IT

Investors must determine if stocks are priced for disruption or extinction. Currently, Indian IT services companies are not priced for disruption. During the previous phase of disruption between 2015 and 2017 (the cloud/digital transition), TCS, Infosys, Wipro, and HCL Tech bottomed at trailing PE multiples of 16.3, 13.9, 12.5, and 13.1 times respectively.

Today, while the threat of AI is significantly greater and their businesses more severely impacted, they trade at higher PE multiples. This dichotomy suggests they do not offer value given the current disruption risks, even after recent underperformance. Investors should plan for multiple outcomes, as even a stock that looks "cheap in theory"—like BlackBerry between 2007 and 2011—may still not be priced for total disruption.

Inflation slayer

FUND CALL. For short-term goals or contingency, park or add units periodically in Tata Money Market fund, especially if you have a surplus.

Venkatasubramanian K bl. research bureau

Even as the equity markets heave a sigh of relief over the uncertainty ending around the US trade deal after both countries reached an agreement, closely following the India-EU pact, the bond markets haven’t had it that easy over the past couple of months. As FPI outflows continued and the domestic currency fell against the dollar, the RBI sought to shore up the rupee and maintain adequate liquidity in the banking system.

However, a high credit deposit ratio (82.2 per cent as of Jan 15, 2026), record cash in circulation (₹39.8 lakh crore), and GST/advance tax outflows in December 2025, along with high RBI yield cutoff due to heavy short-term T-bill supply, have resulted in a spike in short-term yields. In late January, the call rate touched 5.65 per cent, higher than the repo rate of 5.5 per cent. Three-month certificates of deposits (CDs) and commercial papers (CPs) trade at yields north of 7 per cent.

From an investor standpoint, this short-term spike in yield presents an opportunity to opt for money market funds that buy securities maturing in up to a year. Tata Money Market fund is among the best in its category and has a solid track record over the long term in delivering steady above-average returns.

CONSISTENT SHOW

Tata Money Market fund (formerly Tata Liquidity Management) has done well over the years and has delivered better returns than fixed deposits of one year or less. Over the past one, three, five and seven-year timeframes, the fund has delivered 80-160 basis points more than the CRISIL 1-year T-Bill Index.

When 1-year rolling returns are considered from January 2013 to February 2026, the fund has delivered mean returns of 6.93 per cent, beating the benchmark index which gave 6.66 per cent. During this 13-year rolling period, the fund delivered more than 7 per cent returns for as much as 63 per cent of the time. A 3-year SIP in the fund would have delivered 7.5 per cent (XIRR) returns.

Money market funds have the same tax treatment as other fixed income instruments; gains are added to income and taxed at the applicable slab. However, there is no TDS deducted, and tax is only due upon the sale of units, allowing for optimized exits.

SAFE HOLDINGS

The fund maintains a portfolio that invests only in short-term securities with the highest credit rating (usually A1+) and sovereign instruments. Typically, these include CDs, CPs, short-term government securities, state development loans, and T-bills.

The Macaulay duration and modified duration are generally kept in the 4-5 months range, minimizing interest rate sensitivity. The average maturity was a little over five months in its December 2025 portfolio, with a healthy yield to maturity of 7.01 per cent. The portfolio is well-diversified across almost 100 bond securities, including certificates of deposits from major banks like Bank of Baroda, Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, and IndusInd Bank.

The fund is suitable for targets due within the next 1-2 years where liquidity and reasonably inflation-beating returns with low risks are important criteria.

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WHY INVEST

• Suitable for lumpsum investments.
• Invests only in short-term securities with highest credit rating.
• Better returns than fixed deposits of a year or less.

In the AI blast radius

IPO WATCH. Priced like a premium AI play, Fractal Analytics is closer to a services-led model with mid margins

Kumar Shankar Roy bl. research bureau

Fractal Analytics is hitting the IPO mart on February 9 to raise ₹2,834 crore at the time of an ongoing tech rout. Global IT services stocks have taken a sharp hit on fears that new AI tools can finish tech work much faster, disrupting business models. Concerns that AI could eat into the software value chain also led to selling across SaaS, consulting, and data analytics stocks.

The Fractal IPO comprises an issue of fresh stock (₹1,023.5 crore) and an offer-for-sale (up to ₹1,810.4 crore) by investors, including PE giants Apax Partners and TPG, at a price band of ₹857-900/share. Promoters are not selling any stock (17 per cent stake post-issue). Net IPO proceeds are earmarked for debt repayment for Fractal USA (₹264.9 crore), R&D plus sales and marketing under Fractal Alpha (₹355.1 crore), new India office premises (₹121.1 crore), and laptops (₹57.1 crore). The company, India’s first AI unicorn in 2022, aims for a market cap of ₹15,473.6 crore, making it the largest analytics firm listed in India.

DEMANDING VALUATION

At the IPO price, Fractal’s P/E based on FY25 and TTM profit is around 70 times. This is a demanding valuation for a company with modest revenue growth (18 per cent CAGR between FY23 and FY25) and EBITDA margins that are not premium. The valuation leaves little room for execution slip-ups, as PAT conversion has been thin and operating overhead heavy. Consequently, the risk-reward at the IPO price is unfavorable, and investors may want to skip the IPO. While Fractal may not be the primary casualty of AI-led software disruption, it is in the blast radius; businesses billing for project effort using third-party AI are more vulnerable as AI gains ground.

BUSINESS OVERVIEW

Started in 2000 as a data analytics services firm, Fractal has added specialized skills through acquisitions such as Senseforth, Final Mile, and Samya. It now aims to own and sell software platforms and AI products rather than just delivering client projects. Analytical services currently account for 97 per cent of the topline, with subscription revenue being minimal. Over 65 per cent of its revenue comes from the US, and its top-10 clients contribute more than half of the topline.

Fractal acts as a 'decision improvement' vendor for large enterprises in industries like CPG, retail, telecom, healthcare, and BFSI. It uses two engines: Services (teams building solutions with clients) and Products/platforms (re-usable software tools). Its flagship platform is Cogentiq, used to deploy AI solutions faster. The company has 80 clients contributing at least $1 million annually and has built foundation models Vaidya.ai and Fathom. Fractal Alpha is its portfolio of independent AI businesses focused on creating software-like subscription revenue, though it is currently loss-making.

FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

FY23 and FY24 were uneven; FY23 profit was aided by a one-off exceptional gain of over ₹500 crore, while FY24 ended in a loss due to high costs and weak operating leverage. FY25 showed a cleaner turnaround with revenue up 26 per cent. Employee costs are the largest expense, exceeding 70 per cent of revenue. In H1FY26, revenue grew 20 per cent, but net profit did not rise as losses from associate Qure.ai doubled.

PEER COMPARISON

Fractal's valuation of 70x is expensive compared to Latent View Analytics, which has higher margins and revenue growth but a cheaper P/E (44x-51x). Diversified IT leaders like TCS and Infosys trade at lower P/E multiples while delivering superior EBITDA margins of over 20 per cent. Winners like Palantir command steep multiples due to much higher revenue growth (over 50 per cent). Fractal sits in a tough middle: priced like a premium AI play, but with a financial profile closer to a services-led model.

Building strongly on government capex

Venkatasubramanian K bl. research bureau

CONSTRUCTION. An asset-light business, a bulky order pipeline and a strong execution track-record are positives for NBCC.

Given that the Central government has been the prime mover in infrastructure and capex spending over the past few years, several companies in different segments such as roads, power and construction spaces have been beneficiaries.

Even as the government continues to spend on infrastructure, there is also an outlay in the form of grants-in-aid for creation of capital assets. This amount is allocated by the Centre to States and other entities to construct their own buildings, machinery and productive assets. From ₹2.7 lakh crore in FY25 to ₹3.1 lakh crore in revised Budget estimates for FY26, the figure is set to increase to ₹4.93 lakh crore in FY27.

And in this space of asset creation operates a niche player with Central ministries, State governments and select PSUs as its main client base.

As a Navaratna Central public sector enterprise (CPSE), NBCC is a leading construction player in the construction sector. It is predominantly involved in project management consultancy (PMC) projects involving institutional, housing and industrial segments. The company takes up redevelopment of government colonies, vacant land parcels as well as construction of hospitals, medical colleges, offices, airports and bridges.

NBCC also has overseas presence with operations in Mauritius, Maldives, Seychelles, Dubai and Jeddah. It is looking to expand operations in other geographies. A minor part of its revenues come from EPC (engineering, procurement and construction) and real estate segments.

REASONABLE VALUATION

At ₹98, NBCC trades at 29 times its likely per share earnings for FY27. The stock’s five-year median PE (Price earnings) ratio is around 35 times. The BSE Realty index trades at over 39 times. On a relative basis, the stock does appear to be reasonably valued. However, given the general volatility around mid- and small-cap stocks, this valuation multiple means accumulating on stock price declines may be a relatively safer option for investors with a three-year perspective.

A thriving asset-light business model, a bulky order-book that lends considerable revenue visibility, a sturdy client base dominated by State and Central government entities and a strong execution track-record are positives for the company.

HEALTHY FINANCIALS

Over the three-year period from FY22, NBCC’s consolidated revenues grew at a CAGR of 16.1 per cent to ₹12,039 crore in FY25, while net profits rose at a rate of 32.8 per cent over the same period to ₹557 crore.

EBITDA margins (excluding other income) are closer to 4 per cent in H1; the company hopes to finish the full year with 6-6.5 per cent levels given that H2 and especially Q4 tend to be quite strong. NBCC is a net debt-free company and has remained so for a few years now.

EXECUTING SMARTLY

PMC projects are the company’s major revenue source, accounting for over 92 per cent of revenues usually (96 per cent in H1FY26). The EPC and real estate segments contribute 4-8 per cent of revenues. In the real estate segment, the company receives marketing fees.

The company’s PMC strategy is a self-revenue generation model catering to redevelopment projects. In such cases, the land is given by the government. The company monetises part of the land through commercial means. The three models of monetisation include:

• Outright sale of a part of land
• Long-term lease of a part of the built-up area
• Free-hold sale of a part of the built-up area

This helps in funding the development of public infrastructure. For example, NBCC is developing the General Pool Residential Accommodation (GPRA) Colony in Netaji Nagar, New Delhi, into a modern hub with 4,882+ residential units, offices and commercial spaces.

The company’s PMC clients broadly come from three categories:

• Central government: Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, Ministry of Defence, Ministry of External Affairs, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Renewable Energy, Ministry of Home affairs etc.
• Education institutes: IIMs, IITs, NITs, AIIMS, Central universities, State medical colleges, Jawahar Navodaya Vidyalaya etc.
• State governments: Haryana, Rajasthan, Odisha, Kerala, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, North-Eastern States etc.

Some of its overseas project executions include Institute for Security and Law Enforcement Studies (ISLES) at Addu City, Maldives; Indian Pavilion at the World Expo 2020, Dubai; Social Housing Projects in Mauritius and New Supreme Court Building at Port Louis Mauritius, among many others.

NBCC has an order-book of ₹1.28 lakh crore as of September 30, 2025, to be executed over the next several years. This order-book is over 10x the company’s FY25 revenues. About ₹34,000-crore worth of the order-book already has running projects.

Another couple of projects, MAHAPREIT (₹25,000 crore) focuses on projects involving cluster developments, data centres and infrastructure in Maharashtra and another ₹15,000 crore from Srinagar Development Authority to develop a 406-acre township are also in the pipeline in the coming years.

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ACCUMULATE ON DIPS

NBCC ₹98 WHY

• Ability to monetise projects early
• Large order-book lends revenue visibility
• Multi-dimensional government clientele

Ready to rise & shine

INDEX OUTLOOK. Supports to limit the downside in benchmark indices

Gurumurthy K bl. research bureau

Two major events jolted the Indian stock markets last week. First was the increase in Securities Transaction Tax in Futures and Options announced in the Union Budget. This triggered a strong sell-off on February 1 when the Budget was presented. Then, the US announcing the reduction of tariff on India made the market see a huge gap-up open on Tuesday. However, there was no follow-through rise and the indices fell all through the rest of the week.

On the charts the picture looks positive. There is no danger of a major fall, and supports are there to limit the downside. We expect the Indian benchmark indices to rise to new highs in the coming weeks.

FPIS BUY

Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) snapped their six-week selling spree. They turned net buyers last week. The Indian equity segment saw a net inflow of about $897 million. If the FPIs accelerate their purchase, then that would aid the Sensex and Nifty to go higher.

NIFTY 50 (25,693.70)

Short-term view: Immediate support is in the 25,500-25,450 region, which has held well last week. A rise from here can take the Nifty up to 26,300-26,400 again in the short term. This 26,400 is a very crucial resistance. Nifty has to breach this hurdle in order to go further higher towards 26,800 or so.

In case the index breaks below 25,450 from here, then a fall to 25,100-25,000 can happen first. Thereafter the index can bounce back again and go up to 26,000 and higher.

Medium-term view: The broader bullish view remains intact. Nifty can rise to 27,500-28,000 in the medium term. A decisive break above 26,400 can clear the way for this rise. Eventually, we can see the Nifty touching 30,000-31,000 in the long term.

Strong support will be in the 24,000-23,500 zone. The rise to 28,000 and higher will get negated only if Nifty breaks below 23,500. Such a break, though less likely now, can drag it down to 22,000 and lower.

NIFTY BANK (60,120.55)

Short-term view: Support is in the 59,500-59,400 region, which can be tested earlier this week. A bounce from this support zone can take the Nifty Bank index higher towards 60,800-60,850. This leg of rise will have the potential to breach 60,850 and take the index higher to 62,000-62,100 eventually.

Failure to bounce back from the 59,500-59,400 support zone can drag the index lower to 58,800 or 58,400, but not beyond that. Nifty Bank index can reverse higher from either of these two levels and go back up to 60,000 and higher again. In this case, the rise to 62,000 will get slightly delayed.

Medium-term view: The consolidation within the broad uptrend is still in place. The bias continues to remain bullish for the Nifty Bank index to see 63,000-63,500 in the medium term. From a big picture, the index can target 68,000-69,000 in the long term. Strong support is in the 54,000-53,800 region. Only a fall below 53,800 will negate the bullish view and turn the outlook negative.

SENSEX (83,580.40)

Short-term view: Supports are at 82,800 and 82,500. Sensex can sustain above these supports and rise back to 84,400 initially and then to 85,800-86,000. Ideally, Sensex must breach 86,000 in order to gain momentum and rise further.

If Sensex breaks below 82,500 this week, then a fall to 81,200 can happen first and then it can rise back again.

Medium-term view: The overall bullish outlook will remain intact as long as the index remains above 79,500. We keep intact our view of the Sensex rising to 89,000-90,000 in the medium term and 98,000-99,000 in the long term.

A fall below 79,500 is needed to negate this bullish view, but that looks less likely as of now.

NIFTY MIDCAP 150 (21,926.85)

The support at 20,800 had held very well even during the strong fall witnessed on the Budget Day. That indicates the strength of the support and also the presence of fresh buyers below 21,000.

For now, 21,630 and 21,550 are key supports for the week. Resistance is around 22,200. A break above it can take the index up to 22,800 this week. An eventual break above 22,800 will then strengthen the bullish momentum. That in turn can take the Nifty Midcap 150 index up to 26,000-26,500 in the medium term and 28,000-28,500 in the long term.

The index has to break 20,800 decisively to go down towards 20,000. Also, a fall below 20,000 is needed to increase the selling pressure. Only then the danger of seeing 18,000 on the downside will come into the picture.

NIFTY SMALLCAP 250 (15,864.50)

The index is managing to hold well above 15,000. Near-term support is at 15,650. While that holds, the resistance at 16,300 can be tested this week. A break above 16,300 can trigger an extended rise to 16,700-16,800.

A strong rise above 16,800 is needed to see some relief, and then take the index higher to 18,000 levels.

Looking at the long-term charts, the region around 15,000 is a strong support which is holding very well now. So, a rise to 18,000 from here will indicate the beginning of a fresh leg of upmove. That will have the potential to take the Nifty Smallcap 250 index up to 22,500-23,000 in the long term.

So, this could be a good time to enter the small-cap segment. A strong fall below 15,000 is needed to negate this bullish view.

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SUPPORT ZONE

• Nifty 50: 25,500-25,450
• Sensex: 82,800-82,500
• Nifty Bank: 59,500-59,400

Mixed signals

US MARKET OUTLOOK. Dow makes a bullish breakout, NASDAQ indicates weakness

Gurumurthy K bl. research bureau

The Dow Jones Industrial Average made a bullish breakout in the past week thereby ending the prolonged sideways consolidation. The index surged 2.5 per cent last week. However, the S&P 500 is still stuck inside its range, and the NASDAQ Composite index is showing some signs of weakness. The S&P 500 was down 0.1 per cent and the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.84 per cent. Overall, the divergence in the US benchmark indices is a mixed picture. So, we may have to wait and see whether the rise in the Dow Jones seen last week is sustaining or not.

DOW JONES (50,115.67)

The strong rise last week indicates that the broader uptrend has resumed after a pause. Immediate support will be in the 49,800-49,700 region. The Dow Jones can rise to 50,800 in the short term. The upside can extend even up to 51,000-51,100. From a big picture, 51,000-51,400 is a strong resistance zone. A break above 51,400 might be difficult. We see high chances for the Dow Jones to reverse lower anywhere in the 51,000-51,400 region.

S&P 500 (6,932.30)

The 6,760-7,000 range continues to remain intact. The S&P 500 index oscillated well within that in the past week. As such, there is no major change in our view. We will have to wait for the range breakout to get clarity. A fall below 6,760 will indicate a bearish trend reversal, opening the doors for a fresh fall to 6,600. On the other hand, 7,100 can be seen on the upside if the index breaches 7,000. A sustained rise above 7,100 is needed to see much higher levels of 7,400. Failure to breach 7,100 and a reversal from there will keep the index under pressure to see 6,600 on the downside eventually.

NASDAQ COMPOSITE (23,031.21)

The fall below 23,100 last week is giving an early sign of a turnaround. Failure to rise back above 23,100 immediately from here followed by a fall below 22,800 can indicate a trend reversal. That thereafter will keep the index under pressure. In that case, there is a danger of seeing 22,000 and even lower levels on the downside. A sustained rise above 23,100 is needed to ease the downside pressure and go up to 23,400.

DOLLAR OUTLOOK

The dollar index (97.68) witnessed some follow-through rise last week. Immediate support is around 97.25. If it manages to sustain above this support, then the chances are high to see a break above 98. Such a break can take the index higher to 98.50 initially and then to 99-99.50 eventually in the coming weeks. The index has to break below 97.25 to come under pressure. If that happens, a fall to 96.20-96 can be seen again.

TREASURY YIELD

The US 10Yr Treasury Yield (4.21 per cent) witnessed a sharp fall during the week breaking below 4.2 per cent. However, it has bounced back from the low around 4.16 per cent. The immediate outlook is unclear. If the bounce sustains, we can see a rise back to 4.3 per cent again. From a big picture, 4.3-4.35 will be a crucial resistance zone. Ideally, the US 10Yr Treasury Yield must breach 4.35 per cent to gain bullish momentum.

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MORE RISE The dollar index can rise to 98.50 and higher if it manages to sustain above 97.25.

Fighter Jet, Set, Go

India’s private sector may soon be given its most challenging assignment yet—build the country’s fifth-generation fighter

Nirmal John

Last week, reports suggested that India’s private sector is likely to be the preferred option to manufacture the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), the fifth-generation multirole stealth airplane being developed for the country’s air force and navy. If this occurs, it will mark a significant departure from the government’s standard defence procurement strategy of using Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) for such manufacturing, as seen with the Tejas light combat aircraft.

While HAL’s shareholders have reacted negatively—the stock has lost approximately 14% of its value since the beginning of the month—involving the private sector is viewed as a step in the right direction for this complex and costly endeavour. Air Vice Marshal (retd) Manmohan Bahadur notes that involving private players is beneficial as it creates an additional production line while HAL’s current order books are full with Tejas aircraft orders.

CHALLENGING CURVE

The transition will be demanding for India's private players. Companies being discussed as part of the shortlist include Tata Advanced Systems, L&T, and Bharat Forge, all of which have differing levels of expertise. Some are already part of global supply chains for Boeing and Airbus, while others have experience in high-precision manufacturing for artillery or have worked with ISRO on rockets. However, moving to the role of a lead integrator and manufacturer for a fifth-generation fighter is a massive jump in complexity.

Defence analyst Angad Singh points out that while these companies are not starting from scratch, the key challenge lies in expanding their field of vision. This high-stakes role requires more than just high-precision manufacturing, and private players will likely require significant "handholding" from the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) and the defence ministry.

HIRING ON ALL CYLINDERS

Success will depend heavily on the workforce. Former defence secretary G Mohan Kumar states that the primary challenge will be mobilising resources and manpower to create an entire ecosystem of people capable of building the necessary parts.

The private sector is expected to "poach liberally" from the existing ecosystem, including retired HAL and ADA hands. Because they are not restricted by government pay scales or recruitment rules, private firms can "write a cheque large enough" to attract top global talent. Singh warns, however, that the private sector must avoid overambitious, unrealistically low bidding that could lead to future "super-contractual" problems.

WHAT NEXT FOR HAL?

There is hope that private sector involvement will introduce greater capital efficiency. Unlike HAL, which has massive cash reserves and no opportunity costs, private firms like Tata must ensure a "handsome return" on investments of up to ₹5,000 crore.

HAL, for its part, has stated it has received no official communication regarding its exclusion from the AMCA deal. Despite missing out on this specific contract, the Bengaluru-based company remains a vital player in the ecosystem, with maintenance contracts and hundreds of aircraft on order that should secure its balance sheet for over a decade. Nevertheless, HAL must learn to hasten its decision-making and approach to risk-taking, as its slow pace is cited as a reason for seeking private sector alternatives.

Which is the best oil?

OIL THE BEST

The battle for cooking oil has been heating up — with everything from coconut, mustard and refined oils fighting for shelf space, while avocado oil puts in an appearance now. Lijee Philip asks experts whether any one oil can ever triumph over others.

Nutritionists and doctors say the debate is less about the “best oil” and more about how oils behave under heat, how they’re reused, and how much oil is consumed. Two oils have stood the test of time — olive and coconut, according to nutritionist Ishi Khosla, who notes that extra-virgin olive oil has strong evidence for cardiovascular health, while coconut oil supports gut health.

THE CHOICE OVERLOAD

One of the best and worst things about modern life is being spoilt for choice, and cooking oils are no exception. Earlier, most Indian kitchens followed a simple rule of using one main fat: mustard oil in the north, coconut in the south, groundnut in the west, and ghee everywhere. Today, shelves are cluttered with olive oil for salads, sesame for "Asian nights", and avocado oil. Experts suggest that context matters more than trends; consumers need to build an "oil shelf."

SHOULD ONE ROTATE OILS?

Yes, human biology supports dietary diversity as different oils have different fatty acid profiles. Shimpi Patil of Luke Coutinho Holistic Healing Systems states that our cells need a balance of fats, and rotating oils helps prevent excess omega-6 intake and oxidative stress. Historically, Indian kitchens rotated oils based on climate and season. However, health coach Nandita Iyer cautions that quantity matters far more than the specific oil type, as calorie surplus has a bigger impact on metabolic health.

BUILD YOUR OIL SHELF: A READY RECKONER

Usage Case	Recommended Oils
For High Heat, Indian Cooking	Ghee, Cold-pressed mustard oil, Groundnut oil
For Moderate Heat	Sunflower oil, Safflower oil, Rice bran oil (heavily refined), Cold-pressed avocado oil
Low-heat or Consumed Raw	Extra-virgin olive oil, Virgin coconut oil, Sesame oil, Flaxseed oil (never heated)

Note: Avoid oils with high polyunsaturated fat (PUFA) content for repeated high-heat cooking as they oxidise faster, producing inflammatory compounds.

TRADITIONAL INDIAN FATS

Traditional fats like mustard oil, coconut oil, and ghee often get a bad rap due to outdated cholesterol science. When cold-pressed and unrefined, these are well-suited to Indian cooking styles. Guidelines recommend limiting saturated fat intake, but the real issues are industrial processing, overheating, repeated reuse, and excessive quantity. Endocrinologist Dr. Aasim Maldar notes that while extra-virgin olive oil (EVOO) has strong cardiovascular evidence, newer options like avocado oil have far less long-term outcome data.

AYURVEDIC PERSPECTIVE

Ayurveda approaches oils based on digestibility and suitability to the individual rather than smoke points. Its guiding principle is that what digests well is more important than what merely "looks" healthy. Subhash Markande, an ayurveda consultant, advises having one primary oil suited to your constitution (prakriti), region (desha), and season (kala), using others only occasionally. Stability after heating is considered more crucial than nutritional labels.

MYTH VS REALITY

• Myth: Ghee and coconut oil are unhealthy. Reality: They are safe when unrefined, used in small amounts, and not reused.
• Myth: Newer oils are automatically better. Reality: Many are poorly suited to high-heat Indian cooking.
• Myth: One ‘heart-healthy’ oil is enough. Reality: Quantity and heat stability matter more than oil type.

IS SMOKE POINT OVER-RATED?

Smoke point only indicates when an oil starts visibly smoking, not how safely it behaves under heat. Oils rich in PUFAs are chemically unstable and degrade faster under heat, even if they have a high smoke point. Refining can raise a smoke point but strips protective antioxidants. For everyday Indian cooking like sautéing and shallow frying, chemical stability under heat matters more than smoke point alone. EVOO is best reserved for salads as its polyphenols and flavor break down easily at high temperatures.

HEALTH RISKS OF OILY CHOICES

• Excess omega-6 leading to inflammation.
• Lack of MUFA can create poor lipid balance.
• Too much of any one fat can cause metabolic stress.

EXPERT VOICES

• "The quantity of fat matters more than whether it’s ghee, olive oil or avocado oil." — Nandita Iyer
• "Smoke point is overemphasised. How an oil breaks down under repeated heat is what determines real-world safety." — Anshul Singh
• "There is no one oil that can meet all the body’s fatty acid needs. Diversity, not obsession, is what biology supports." — Shimpi Patil

Kidnapping Of a Coach

A year on, former MLS manager Adrian Heath breaks his silence on his terrifying abduction after a fake Saudi job offer

The New York Times

While being driven across the northern tip of Morocco, Adrian Heath could not help but think of the places soccer had taken him. The sport lifted him out of Newcastle-under-Lyme, England, and carried him to Everton FC, where in 1982 he became the team’s most expensive signing. He became one of the first English soccer players to venture to Spain’s La Liga, signing with Espanyol in 1988. And when his playing days were done, the sport took him to the United States for coaching stints at Austin Aztex, Orlando City and Minnesota United.

The trip to Morocco was supposed to be another adventure: An interview for a coaching job in Saudi Arabia. On any other night, it might have looked beautiful to think about the sport as the city lights faded behind him. But on this night, Heath looked at his kidnapper and wondered whether it would be soccer that now ended his life.

A DEMAND FOR MONEY

For more than a year, Heath kept his kidnapping quiet, outside of telling close friends and the League Managers Association, a trade union that represents managers in English soccer. Then an FBI agent called: It had happened to another manager.

“You think it’s over, but it never really goes away… the thought of another family going through this,” said his wife, Jane. The Heaths described the three traumatic days of November 2024, agreeing to speak without naming individuals or locations, and without sharing details that could compromise ongoing investigations in the US and England.

After being fired by Minnesota United in October 2023, Heath, 65, spent a year travelling with Jane. In 2024, an agent from Britain asked if he’d consider a role in Saudi Arabia. Though the job went to someone else, Heath stayed interested. When the agent called again months later, saying the role had reopened, Heath agreed.

Soon, the club’s owner requested a meeting in Morocco, where the sheikh reportedly had hotels and other businesses. A plane ticket was sent for November 17 and a reservation was made at a five-star hotel. When Heath landed in Morocco on November 18, two men greeted him at the airport and ushered him to a sedan.

But after about 40 minutes, they turned off the main highway. “Within 20 minutes, I’m starting to panic,” Heath said. “We end up driving into this little harbour town and we go into a sketchy neighbourhood. I was supposed to be staying at a beach hotel.”

Heath was taken into a sparsely furnished room in a small apartment building with three men. “You obviously realise that this isn’t what you thought it was going to be,” the man in his 30s said. “This is how it’s going to work: You’re going to send us money.” Heath said the number was well in the six figures. They took his wallet and phone. Heath tried to stall, citing the seven-hour time difference with the US. When Jane reached him, he insisted he was fine.

A short time later, one of the men put a 15- to 18-inch blade to Heath’s throat. “You’ve got a few hours now to think this over,” he was told. Heath pretended to be asleep, while trying to come up with a plan. There were no good options: Giving money may invite demand for more; refusing would bring the blade back.

A LUCKY DISCOVERY

Jane received a call at 6.30 am. “Listen to what I’m saying,” Heath said. “I need you to transfer some money.” She made a split-second decision. “Adrian, we changed bank accounts less than 12 months ago,” she told him. “You’re the head name on it. I can’t transfer any money without you there.”

The captors hung up, then called back demanding a lower sum. Jane immediately phoned their son, Harrison, a former MLS midfielder. Harrison’s wife, Kaylyn Kyle — a TV analyst and former player for Canada’s national team — told Jane to check Find My Friends. The kidnappers had taken Heath’s phone but left location services on. Harrison confronted the sports agent with a screenshot of the location and demanded to know what was happening.

He then called an FBI agent he knew in New York. In Morocco, Heath told his kidnappers that they weren’t getting any money without him going home. Suddenly, the 30-something kidnapper walked into the room. “Get your gear,” he said. “I’m taking you to the airport.”

FORTUNATE TO BE ALIVE

Near the Tangier Ibn Battouta Airport, the man grabbed and shoved Heath out of the car. Heath had his passport, bag and wallet — but the kidnappers had taken the $600 cash he had at the start of the trip. He ran to the first ticket desk he could see and caught a flight to Madrid.

When he landed in Minnesota, Jane and the FBI were waiting for him. The FBI provided security for the family for 28 days. “It sounds crazy, but I feel lucky,” Heath said.

Heath informed the managers’ union, which introduced new protocols to verify interest and interviews through the relevant federation. By speaking out, Heath hoped to warn other managers. “It was like the longest and quickest three days of my life,” he said. “It gives everyone a chance to reevaluate their life and what’s important. And the only important thing is your family. Everything else is secondary.”