Newspaper Summary - 101125

 The global economic and financial landscape in November 2025 is characterized by a surge in Indian capital market activity set against macro-economic uncertainty and divergent sectoral performance.

Market Dynamics & Investing

India is experiencing a busy period in capital markets with numerous Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) launched or planned for late 2025/early 2026, driven by active demand from investors, particularly domestic institutions. Notable public listing efforts include Pine Labs, with a price band of ₹210 to ₹221 per equity share; Meesho and Fractal Analytics, targeting listings in late November/early December; Manipal Health Enterprises, aiming for an IPO filing in December at a valuation of around ₹1-1.2 trillion; and InCred Holdings, which has filed preliminary papers for an IPO estimated at ₹3,000-4,000 crore. However, this sheer volume of equity supply from IPOs, potential government divestments, and promoter/Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) sales is noted as having helped cap valuations in the secondary market.

Sector-specific investing shows mixed results:

• Metals: Base metal prices are on an upward trajectory, driven by robust industrial demand, tight global supply, and depreciation of the USD-INR exchange rate, supporting strong performance for non-ferrous companies. Copper, aluminum, and zinc are experiencing price momentum, fueled by megatrends like electrification and infrastructure.
• Alternative Assets: High-net-worth individuals (HNIs) and ultra-HNIs are increasingly diversifying beyond traditional asset classes like equities and debt. The Indian art market achieved its highest-ever half-yearly sales in Fiscal Year 2026, with works of "masters" dominating auctions, although this investment class requires patience (at least 10 years) and suffers from limited liquidity outside established artists.
• Mutual Funds: Smart-beta funds linked to the Value and Low Volatility factors have been standout performers in 2025 (year-to-date as of October 31), significantly outperforming the Nifty 500 Index. Meanwhile, the technology sector has been negatively affected by spending cuts.
• NPS: Non-government National Pension System (NPS) subscribers are now permitted to allocate up to 100% of their funds to equity plans (effective October 1, 2025). Yet, NPS equity plans have struggled to consistently beat the benchmark index, partly due to a reliance on large caps rather than mid and small caps which experts suggest are necessary for meaningful outperformance.
• Regulatory Focus: SEBI cautioned investors against ‘Digital Gold’ products, noting they are neither notified as securities nor regulated as commodity derivatives, exposing investors to significant counterparty and operational risks, urging investors instead toward regulated products like Gold ETFs. A Madras High Court ruling, however, recognized crypto assets as intangible property, which may provide more confidence for investors and enforceability of legal rights domestically.

Global Economic & Financial Landscape

The global environment reflects significant market unease concerning monetary policy effectiveness. Long-term bond yields globally have risen despite central banks cutting rates, indicating that markets are worried about inflation, deficits, and debt sustainability, signaling skepticism about central banks' ability to keep interest rates low. Furthermore, US Federal Reserve restrictive monetary policy is noted for contributing to America’s "K-shaped economy," where tighter credit disproportionately burdens lower-income consumers and financially constrained small businesses, while large firms funding AI investments remain relatively unaffected.

India is actively pursuing significant regulatory changes across finance, infrastructure, and industry, while navigating a complex global financial landscape marked by policy skepticism and shifting trade dynamics in November 2025.

Regulatory & Policy Shifts (India)

Policy shifts are notably concentrated in the financial sector, infrastructure, and key industries:

• Financial Services and Digital Assets:

  • The Madras High Court recently established a crucial precedent by recognizing cryptocurrency as “property,” granting investors enforceable ownership rights and placing fiduciary obligations on exchanges. This ruling is anticipated to accelerate the formulation of a formal regulatory framework for digital assets in India, potentially leading to clearer norms for asset custody and KYC/AML standards.
  • The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) reiterated its caution against ‘Digital Gold’ products, noting they are neither classified as securities nor regulated as commodity derivatives, exposing investors to counterparty and operational risks. SEBI advised investors to stick to regulated alternatives like Gold ETFs and electronic gold receipts (EGRs).
  • Investment policy governing retirement savings witnessed a change: effective October 1, 2025, non-government National Pension System (NPS) subscribers are now permitted to allocate up to 100% of their funds to equity plans.
  • For large Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) with a post-issue market capitalization of ₹1–5 trillion, new SEBI regulations have reduced the minimum public dilution requirement to 2.75% of the post-issue market cap. Pine Labs, for instance, noted that it is subject to direct regulatory oversight by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the Reserve Bank Information Technology Private Limited (ReBIT) regarding the Payment and Settlement Systems Act, 2007, and associated Master Directions.

• Industrial and Infrastructure Policy:

  • The Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) is driving a major overhaul of the real estate insolvency framework through an inter-ministerial committee, aiming to resolve thousands of stalled housing projects. Key proposals include strengthening NCLT capacity and exploring the use of the Swamih Fund (Special Window for Affordable and Mid-Income Housing) to finance bankrupt projects undergoing resolution under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC).
  • The government is reviewing the Sugarcane (Control) Order, 1966, to modernize regulations. Proposed revisions aim to link the Fair and Remunerative Price (FRP) paid to farmers to the total revenue derived from all cane-based products (like ethanol and molasses), rather than just sugar. Additionally, the Centre approved the export of 1.5 million tonnes (mt) of sugar for the 2025-26 season and removed the 50% export duty on molasses.
  • In the telecom sector, operators urged the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) to significantly lower the base price for spectrum auctions and extend the spectrum usage period to 30 or 40 years, arguing that excessively high prices stifle investment in network expansion and 5G deployment.

Global Economic & Financial Landscape Context

These domestic shifts occur against a backdrop of global financial unease and trade adjustments:

• Monetary Policy Skepticism: Globally, long-term bond yields have risen despite central banks cutting rates, signaling that markets lack confidence in central banks’ ability to keep interest rates low and are concerned about escalating inflation, fiscal deficits, and debt sustainability.
• K-Shaped Economic Impact: Restrictive monetary policies, such as those implemented by the US Federal Reserve, have been noted for contributing to a “K-shaped economy” where credit contraction disproportionately harms lower-income consumers and financially constrained small businesses, while large firms funding interest-rate-insensitive AI investments continue to thrive.
• Trade Relations: India and Australia are negotiating a comprehensive trade agreement (CECA) to build upon their existing Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA), covering goods, services, and investment. Meanwhile, China has suspended its ban on approving exports of certain dual-use metals (gallium, germanium, antimony, and super-hard materials) to the US until late 2026, temporarily easing friction in global technology supply chains.
• Climate Focus: Global climate negotiations are transitioning from goal-setting to the crucial task of delivering measurable action on adaptation and securing predictable long-term financing to address climate impacts.

The current corporate and sectoral focus in the Global Economic & Financial Landscape (November 2025) is characterized by significant capital market activity in India, fierce domestic competition, a booming metals and infrastructure segment, and strategic shifts driven by artificial intelligence (AI) globally.

Key Corporate and Sectoral Dynamics (India)

India is experiencing one of its busiest capital market periods, with several large companies launching or preparing for Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), contributing to a sheer volume of equity supply that has helped cap secondary market valuations.

• Technology and Finance IPOs: High-profile firms preparing to list include digital payments company Pine Labs, whose IPO price band implies a high Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of up to 152.41x compared to its peer average of 61.78x. E-commerce marketplace Meesho (targeting $800-$850 million) and AI firm Fractal Analytics (targeting ₹4,900 crore) are aiming for public listings in late November/early December. InCred Holdings has also filed preliminary papers for an estimated ₹3,000–4,000 crore IPO.
• Infrastructure and Manufacturing:
  • Metals & Steel: The base metals sector is thriving, supported by strong industrial demand, tight global supply, and megatrends like electrification. Companies such as Hindalco, Hindustan Zinc, and NALCO are benefiting, demonstrating earnings resilience and planning substantial capacity expansions. India's steel sector is drawing upwards of ₹37,000 crore in planned investment from new entrants (including Lloyds Metals, ACME Group, and Synergy Capital) attracted by the infrastructure boom and expectation of domestic steel demand rising over 40% in the next five years.
  • Automotive: Hyundai Motor India is facing intense competition from local rivals and is investing ₹45,000 crore to become a "homegrown" brand, aiming to maintain its market share by launching 26 new models/upgrades over five years. Bajaj Auto saw robust export volume growth, aided by rupee depreciation, even as its stock performance lagged due to domestic concerns. TVS Motor Co. is expanding its footprint into "industrialized markets" such as Spain and Portugal.
• Consumer & Healthcare: The paints market is bracing for a "full-blown colour war" following the disruptive entry of Birla Opus; Berger Paints has opted to prioritize retaining its market share (20.8% in H1 FY26) over short-term profitability. In healthcare, Manipal Health Enterprises plans a December IPO filing, aiming for a ₹1-1.2 trillion valuation, raising capital primarily for potential acquisitions and debt reduction.
• Banking: IndusInd Bank’s new CEO is implementing a three-year turnaround plan focused on rebuilding investor trust and aims to reach a 1% Return on Assets (RoA) within 12 to 18 months, following a derivatives loss.

Global Economic and Technological Context

These domestic developments are framed by significant global shifts:

• AI Reshaping Corporate Capital: The global AI race is driving massive capital deployment, exemplified by Amazon’s strategic pivot, with its Q3 2025 capital expenditure hitting $35.1 billion, mostly directed toward AWS data centers supporting AI workloads. This spending spree, including a new $38 billion cloud agreement with OpenAI, has revived investor confidence in AWS after concerns it was losing market share.
• Workforce Restructuring due to AI: The need for AI literacy is profoundly affecting global employment. Consulting firm Accenture is "exiting" employees who fail to integrate generative AI into their work, underscoring a rapid push across professional services firms (like PwC and KPMG) to integrate AI skills into employee evaluations and training.
• Global Pharmaceutical Focus: The global weight-loss drug market, expected to exceed $100 billion by 2030, is seeing intense corporate competition, highlighted by the multibillion-dollar acquisition battle over biotech firm Metsera between Pfizer and Novo Nordisk.

The sources indicate that the global landscape in November 2025 is characterized by a major focus on the sustainability of the workforce in India, critical domestic policy reforms, and a global corporate push toward AI literacy, alongside massive investment in specialized health markets.

Work and Workforce Policy

India is grappling with a severe "burnout epidemic," driven by increased workload and constant digital monitoring. Surveys suggest India has some of the longest work hours globally, well above the International Labour Organization’s 48-hour standard. Long shifts, particularly in the technology sector due to global client demands, necessitate 12-hour workdays and continuous adjustment to different time zones, contributing to strain. This pressure reportedly affects women disproportionately, leading to higher attrition rates when domestic complications arise. Experts argue that this burnout requires a national policy intervention, similar to measures seen in France (banning official messages after 7 pm).

On a global scale, Generative AI (Gen AI) is causing a "seismic" shift in the workplace, with skills needed for jobs in India expected to change by nearly two-thirds by 2030. Corporations are enforcing AI integration into work, with consulting firm Accenture "exiting" employees who fail to adopt Gen AI fundamentals. Other firms like PwC and KPMG are integrating AI collaboration into employee evaluations and training, reflecting a 70% increase in LinkedIn job postings requiring AI literacy skills. Policy efforts are pushing for a "skills-first" hiring approach to ensure women, despite possessing critical soft skills like strategic leadership, can overcome confidence hurdles and advance in AI-impacted sectors. India also faces short-term workforce issues, such as a shortage of blue-collar workers in metros triggered by election processes in states like Bihar and Bengal, forcing employers to offer incentives and bonuses. Furthermore, policies support formal apprenticeship programs under the Skill India Mission and project internships becoming mandatory for certification within the next five years.

Health and Social Policy Shifts (India & Global)

India's path toward 'Insurance for All' by 2047 is threatened by a pervasive trust deficit, stemming from aggressive sales tactics coupled with defensive claim denials. Insurers are criticized for minimal initial medical underwriting, followed by lengthy, in-depth investigations and rejection of large claims, often exploiting the "fraud" exception to reject claims even after the five-year moratorium period has passed. Policy proposals seek to strengthen the moratorium clause to prevent claim rejections after five years without solid evidence. Other recommendations include building a centralized system (similar to CIBIL) for insurers to collect reliable risk information during onboarding and empowering the handful of Insurance Ombudsman offices to speed up claim judgments.

In the global health and pharmaceutical sector, the intense competition in the weight-loss drug market is a major financial focus, with the market projected to exceed $100 billion by 2030. The corporate battle involving Pfizer, which agreed to buy Metsera for over $10 billion, and its rival Novo Nordisk, highlights the enormous economic importance of developing new treatments for obesity.

Domestic Policy Reforms (Non-Financial)

Several sectors in India are undergoing key policy reviews:

• Aviation: The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) is proposing new rules to mandate compensation and ticket refunds for passengers facing flight cancellations or long delays due to non-force majeure events, aiming for parity with international norms.
• Agriculture (Sugar): The government removed a 50% export duty on molasses and approved the export of 1.5 million tonnes (mt) of sugar for the 2025-26 season. Policy revisions are underway for the Sugarcane (Control) Order, 1966, to link the Fair and Remunerative Price (FRP) paid to farmers to the total revenue derived from all cane-based products (including ethanol), potentially boosting farmer income.
• Infrastructure: The National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) is reviewing its decades-old toll policy to simplify collection and improve transparency. Furthermore, the deployment of e-buses for Mumbai and Pune has progressed after the Maharashtra government met the payment security requirements of a central scheme.

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Travel efficiency in November 2025 is threatened by air traffic chaos due to Delhi smog and structural flaws in travel insurance coverage, despite new domestic regulatory efforts. Financial efficiency for Indian travelers is simultaneously improving through the widespread adoption of specialized payment products designed to mitigate high overseas costs caused by the rupee's weakness.

Travel Dynamics

Regulatory and Operational Challenges: The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) is proposing new rules intended to mandate compensation and ticket refunds for passengers facing flight cancellations or long delays due to reasons other than force majeure, aiming for parity with international norms. Current DGCA guidelines already mandate alternative flights or full refunds for delays over six hours, and monetary compensation (up to ₹10,000) for denied boarding due to overbooking.

However, actual travel remains challenging due to disruptions:

• Domestic Chaos: Delhi airport faces chaos due to heavy smog, which diminishes visibility and hits flight operations. Given that air quality is again slipping into the 'very poor' zone, passengers are warned to expect similar disruptions as seen previously (where over 400 flights were delayed).
• Insurance Inefficiency: Travel insurance often proves tricky, as policy fine print allows insurers to reject claims, such as when a traveler independently rebooks after a multi-day delay rather than taking the rescheduled flight offered by the airline. Claims are frequently rejected due to documentation lapses or misunderstood policy wording.
• Global Air Traffic Risk: Globally, air traffic faces possible capacity cuts of up to 10% in the US if federal funding is not secured, which could trigger widespread delays and cancellations, potentially affecting Indian travelers during the winter break.

Financial Efficiency

Currency and Cost Pressure: Overseas spending remains an expensive affair for most Indians due to the rupee hovering near historic lows against currencies like the US dollar, Euro, and sterling. This cost pressure is reflected in the decline in Indian residents’ overseas expenditure under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme since 2023-24.

Payment Solutions for Efficiency: The financial services industry is increasingly promoting solutions to reduce forex costs:

• Zero-Forex Cards: These products, offered by fintechs like Niyo (DCB Bank/SBM Bank India) and Scapia (Federal Bank), or private lenders like RBL Bank and IDFC First Bank, are touted as preferable alternatives. They charge only the actual exchange rate plus a small network commission, bypassing the typical 1-3.5% forex markup fee.
• Prepaid Card Decline: Experts predict that prepaid forex cards, traditionally used by travelers, will lose relevance due to their drawbacks, including blocking funds, imposing loading fees, and lengthy processes for encashing remaining amounts.
• Reward Maximization: For high-spending frequent travelers, premium credit cards (which charge a markup but offer high rewards/cashback, such as the Axis Olympus card offering around 8% rewards) may yield a higher net benefit than zero-forex cards, provided the user's spending justifies the often hefty annual fee.
• ATM Costs: A common inefficiency remains: none of the card categories offer no-cost overseas ATM withdrawals, with fees ranging from 2.5% to 3.5%.

Global Economic Context

These domestic shifts occur while the global financial system shows signs of strain. The rise in long-term bond yields across the US, UK, and India despite central bank rate cuts signals market concern over inflation, deficits, and debt sustainability, suggesting a lack of confidence in central banks' ability to keep rates low. Furthermore, India is engaged in negotiating a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) with Australia to enhance bilateral trade, demonstrating a focus on securing strategic economic partnerships amidst global realignments.

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