Newspaper Summary 191026

 

How vital is this festive season for consumer firms?

By SOUMYA GUPTA

A calendar split across Q2 and Q3, soaring input costs and inflation-led cuts in middle-class spending are squeezing consumer firms during their most crucial sales period. Mint explains how companies are navigating these headwinds to protect growth.

1. What's at stake this festive season?

Sales during this period are vital, though the impact varies across categories. Makers of consumer staples such as packaged food, sweets, snacks and edible oil typically see a temporary sales spike. However, for businesses selling jewellery, consumer durables and apparel, the festive period can drive anywhere from a third to more than half of their total annual revenue. Both online and offline channels feature exclusive product launches and deep discounts around Dussehra, Diwali and other major festivals. Across many categories, this sales momentum stretches into Christmas and the year-end.

2. What unique hurdles do firms face in 2026?

Multiple headwinds are reshaping demand projections this year.

• Calendar Timing: The timing of major festivals has split the core festive period across Q2 and Q3. Several consumer firms note this has shifted anticipated sales into October, weakening second quarter results while potentially lifting third quarter performance.

• Input Costs & Margins: Sharp price hikes in crude oil, plastic packaging, milk, sugar, and key hardware components such as copper and memory chips are putting margins under pressure. In response, most consumer companies have raised prices while offering more conservative discounts this season.

3. Are consumers also spending less?

Early signals are mixed. While e-commerce platforms report strong initial figures, demand for online-heavy electronics like smartphones and laptops has slowed sharply as surging memory chip costs have forced significant price hikes. Broader inflationary pressures are also weighing on budgets, dampening appetites for mass-market goods.

4. How are firms fighting to keep demand alive?

To maintain sales momentum, many firms including LG are opting to absorb higher input costs rather than passing them entirely to consumers. Similarly, despite wholesale milk prices climbing across India over the past two to three months, consumer packaged goods makers like Nestle have kept retail prices steady while others initially hiked prices earlier this year. Concurrently, retailers are leaning heavily on premium offerings to power revenue growth as rising costs threaten to compress mass-market demand.

5. Could consumption turn 'K-shaped' again?

Possibly, though current data shows no sharp shift yet. Soaring prices on staples and discretionary items hit working-class budgets first. Strain is already visible in smartphones and value fashion, alongside a slight rise in e-commerce bank financing. Additionally, the ongoing El Niño threatens upcoming harvest cycles and rural incomes. Meanwhile, the GST cuts rolled out last September to stimulate demand and curb K-shaped consumption have largely dissipated.

Satellite-based tolling likely to make toll plazas obsolete

The move could eventually allow motorists to pay only for the distance they travel

By Sutirtho Patranobis

NEW DELHI

India is looking to make toll plazas a thing of the past, as the government aims to introduce satellite-based toll collection on select national highways by 2028-29. The move could eventually allow motorists to drive without stopping at toll plazas and pay only for the distance they travel, rather than at fixed toll points, two officials aware of the development said.

The proposed global navigation satellite system (GNSS)-based or GPS-based tolling will complement the FASTag and multi-lane free flow (MLFF) systems, which allow vehicles to pass through toll points without stopping but still require roadside gantries and cameras to identify vehicles and collect tolls, said an official, who did not want to be identified.

The ministry of road transport and highways (MoRTH) has commissioned a fully funded centre of excellence at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Kanpur, to undertake research on the subject and prepare a foolproof system for introducing satellite-based tolling in the country. The ministry is targeting its deployment on select stretches by 2028, subject to technical readiness and expansion of India's satellite navigation capabilities with a 24x7 tracking system that covers the entire country, one of the officials said.

How it works

GNSS-based tolling uses satellite positioning and compatible in-vehicle devices to track travel and calculate charges according to the distance covered. Unlike existing systems that collect tolls at fixed locations, GNSS-based tolling tracks travel on designated highways and calculates charges based on the actual distance covered. This could allow motorists exiting a highway before a designated toll point to pay only for the tolled stretch they have actually used.

Existing toll plazas can slow down traffic, while the flat charge may not actually reflect the distance travelled and even the barrier-free systems currently need roadside infrastructure. The Centre's move follows efforts to expand barrier-less MLFF tolling that removes the need for vehicles to queue at conventional booths but retains physical infrastructure to identify vehicles. GNSS could eventually remove the need for toll plazas and their infrastructure altogether, although cameras and other enforcement mechanisms may still remain.

Expert Perspectives & Implementation Challenges

"India can certainly adopt GNSS tolling from a technology standpoint, but only in phases perhaps," said Devayan Dey, partner, capital projects and infrastructure at PwC India. While the technology is mature, he noted that enforcement, interoperability, cybersecurity, data privacy and grievance redressal would need to be addressed before wider deployment. Instances of deliberate and inadvertent violations under FASTag and MLFF could also pose revenue risks for highway asset owners.

Bhavik Vora, partner at Grant Thornton Bharat, said India's existing electronic tolling ecosystem, vehicle registration databases and NavIC satellite-navigation capability provided a foundation for the transition. He, however, said the 2028 timeline should be seen as the start of a phased transition rather than an automatic nationwide rollout. Accurate positioning, compatible onboard devices, digital road maps, payment integration and safeguards against fraud would be essential.

India fuel exports to the West rise 43%

NEW DELHI: Refineries in India and two other countries that run on Russian crude shipped $1.1 billion ($1.2 billion) of oil products to sanctioning countries in September, up 43% from August, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).

Reliance Industries Ltd's Jamnagar refinery in Gujarat supplied six of the seven cargoes unloaded at European Union (EU) ports that month, despite the bloc's ban on fuel made from Russian crude.

Jamnagar also supplied the group's largest US-bound exports, worth $122 million. U.S. and Russian crude made up 32% of its imports from July to September.

Italy received three of the seven EU-bound shipments, Romania two, and Spain and Cyprus one each. Exports reported as destined for EU ports from refineries running on Russian crude rose 80% in value, including a single 104,000-tonne cargo of diesel from Jamnagar still en route to Rotterdam.

The EU banned imports of all products refined from Russian crude in January. The ban exempts net-crude exporters, but CREA says the exemption leaves a gap, since net-export status does not stop a country from refining Russian-origin crude.

India's Russian crude imports fell 13% in September, the second straight monthly decline and the lowest since April, CREA said.

The CREA report covers refineries in India, Turkiye and Brunei. The EU took €67 million worth of their products, Australia €168 million, the US €154 million and New Zealand €19 million. CREA estimated €290 million worth was refined from Russian crude.

'Russia sanctions pause to study impact'

WASHINGTON: US secretary of state Marco Rubio has said the waiver from sanctions on Russia and tariffs on other countries, including India, was a 60-day pause to analyse the global impact of the measure.

Rubio was responding to questions on Saturday evening at Joint Base Andrews near Washington as he left for a six-day tour of Uzbekistan and India.

"I think the president wants to take the 60-day period of time to sort of analyse what imposing both sanctions and tariffs will mean to the global economy, and even to the US economy," Rubio said in response to a question on the waivers granted by Trump under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act.

On Friday, Trump waived key provisions of the Graham Act that authorized punitive tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil, offering relief to India.

The executive order signed by Trump on Friday states that the waivers shall remain in effect until such time as the president or the secretary of state, in consultation with the secretary of the treasury and the trade representative, as appropriate, determine that further action is appropriate.

Speaking to reporters at Mar-a-Lago resort near Miami, Trump said his decision to waive sanctions under the Graham Act would benefit the world because "we're really at a world stage, and I think good for the country, and I think good for the US."

Trump's decision to waive sanctions on Russia came under fire from the Republicans and Democrats, who last month came together to overwhelmingly pass the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act.

Rubio said when the Graham Act was passed, the waivers were put in to study the different things going around the world such as the pressure on global energy supplies due to the Iran war, the attack of Houthis in Saudi Arabia and the Ukraine-Russia war.

"So I think you have to take all of that into account and weigh it against each other," Rubio said.

"Then you've got countries like India, for example, that have voluntarily diversified their energy portfolio, but are still getting a substantial amount of energy from Russia because it's hard to pivot from one day to the next," said the secretary of state, who is scheduled to be in India on Monday.

Rubio said India is an important ally and partner of the US, and the president needs that period of time to sort of study all this and figure out what the right combination is.

Affordable and versatile, Vietnam's basa gets Indians hooked

NEW DELHI: A relatively inexpensive fish from Vietnam is finding its way onto more Indian plates. Basa is gaining favour with restaurants, hotels and caterers for its affordable fillets and versatility for use in several cuisines, including Indian ones.

With imports from the farms of Vietnam on the rise, the freshwater fish is making inroads into India's market, potentially challenging local producers. While frozen Vietnamese basa is priced between ₹170 and ₹400 per kg in India's wholesale and retail trade, the Indian variety commands ₹250–₹600 per kg in retail. Importers note that Indian fish is pricier than its Vietnamese counterpart primarily due to gaps in farming output, production costs, and economies of scale.

Import Growth & Trade Data

• Financial Year 2026 (FY26): Basa imports from Vietnam rose 1.7% to $18.23 million.

• Current Fiscal Trend: The upward trend continued into the first four months of the fiscal year, with imports climbing 19.4% year-on-year to $5.42 million during April–July.

• Market Share: Southeast Asia accounts for almost the entirety of India's basa imports, with only a trickle coming from Thailand and Saudi Arabia in 2025–26.

• Total Imports: India's total basa imports grew 14.3% from $16.06 million in FY25 to $18.37 million in FY26.

• Volume Metrics: In volume terms, basa imports from Vietnam increased 12.1% from 10,109.83 tonnes in FY25 to 11,329.40 tonnes in FY26, according to commerce and industry ministry data.

Domestic Standing & Industry Reception

India's domestic fish market was valued at $45.8 billion in 2025, according to global market intelligence firm Ken Research. Ranking as the world's second-largest fish producer, India accounts for roughly 8% of global output, with total fish production reaching 19.7 million tonnes in FY25.

"Basa fish imports from Vietnam are increasing in India mainly because Vietnam can supply at a competitive price, in large volumes, throughout the year," said Amit Lohani, founder and director of the Forum of Indian Food Importers (representing India's organized food import sector). "It has especially gained traction from the HORECA (hotel, restaurant and café/catering) segment, as Indian consumers and the food-service industry want affordable boneless fish."

The growing availability of imported basa helps buyers meet strong demand for budget-friendly seafood. Because of its mild flavor and texture, basa is commonly used in fillets and processed seafood products. However, analysts point out that this trend could intensify competition for domestic fish producers depending on future import volumes, pricing structures, and shifting consumer preferences.

"We are the world's second-largest fish producer, so we don't import fish much, as we have enough production. Vietnamese basa is gaining traction because it is more economical than Indian basa and other popular Indian fish varieties. Compared with basa, most Indian fish varieties are more expensive," said Sudhanshni Mathur, proprietor of BMS Enterprises, a Delhi-based importer.

No internet access in sandbox. But wait, let's check what packages are installed or if we can use PIL and pytesseract (wait, pytesseract is not installed). Is there any OCR library or is google:load_file or something else available? Wait, let's check what tools are available or how google:load_file works on Mint Bengaluru 19-10-2026_5.pdf or Mint Bengaluru 19-10-2026.pdf. Let's call google:load_file on Mint Bengaluru 19-10-2026_5.pdf or check its pages.Here is the reproduced article on YouTube's rules and clipping firms from Mint Bengaluru (dated October 19, 2026):

YouTube's rules pose survival test for India's clipping firms

By Indrani Chattopadhyaya

MUMBAI

Video-sharing platform YouTube's 1 October announcement that it would reduce the reach of videos reuploaded without significant changes or added value has raised questions about whether India's nascent clipping business can scale further.

The move comes as social media platforms step up efforts to prioritize original content. In March, Meta Platforms Inc. updated its guidelines for Facebook Feed and Instagram Reels to reduce the reach of reposted content featuring only minor edits.

The Clipping Business Model & Industry Growth

Independent clippers and agencies help creators reach wider audiences by turning long-form videos into short clips. For this service, they typically get compensated based on views and engagement models:

• Cost Per Mille (CPM): Payment measured per 1,000 views.

• Fixed Remuneration: A fixed payment per post.

• Monthly Retainers: A retainer fee for managing creator pages.

However, Alphabet Inc.-owned YouTube's decision threatens this traditional business model. Fewer views could make it harder for campaign managers and clipping agencies to deliver the numbers promised to clients.

• Pricing & Revenue: Jaspal Singh Sindhal, co-founder of clipping agency ClipNSeed, noted that CPM rates for clipping campaigns in India typically range from $1 to $2 (and up to $1–$5 depending on the campaign), compared to a global average estimated at $2 to $3. ClipNSeed reported that its revenue had approximately doubled over recent months.

• Agency Expansion: 100x Agency (previously known as Thought Media) stated that its monthly revenue had grown from around ₹1–3 lakh during its initial pilot projects to ₹20–25 lakh, with typical engagements starting at around ₹1.5 lakh a month.

• Rising Awareness: Addhiraj Chhatwal, founder and CEO of clipping agency Fanout, noted that awareness among potential clients is growing rapidly in India. When FanOut launched in June, much of its early outreach involved explaining the model to creators; now, creators approach the agency already familiar with clipping and ask how quickly they can get started. FanOut recorded $17,000 in monthly recurring revenue within two months of its June launch and built a network of more than 1,500 clippers.

Platform Guidelines & Originality

• Videos incorporating others' work can still qualify as original if they add substantial value, such as new information or deep analysis.

• Accounts repeatedly posting unoriginal content risk losing recommendation eligibility and monetization.

• Rinkar Jain, founder and CEO of 100x Agency, stated that the change would require agencies to reassess their distribution strategies and focus more on original editing and audience relevance.

• Conversely, Addhiraj Chhatwal called the move "one of the best things that could have happened to clipping."

YouTube's Clarification & Market Outlook

YouTube clarified that the policy update does not amount to a blanket ban on clipping:

• Videos utilizing Shorts features such as 'Remix' and transformative formats such as reaction videos and analysis remain fully supported and encouraged.

• The primary objective of the update is to curb spam.

On a global scale, the clipping economy could grow from an estimated $40 billion to $293 billion by 2033, according to a July report by publishing firm Emerald Book. For Indian clipping agencies, the opportunity will ultimately depend on whether the format can establish itself as a reliable distribution channel amid tighter platform regulations.

Yes Bank verdict: reconsider the economic rationale of AT-1 bonds

By R. Gurumurthy

Former central banker

The Supreme Court’s ruling should make us re-assess whether this instrument really serves the purpose it was designed for

The Supreme Court's verdict on Yes Bank's Additional Tier-1 (AT-1) bonds raises questions that extend well beyond the losses suffered by investors. It challenges the legal basis of the write-off, the design of the instrument, which was intended to absorb banking losses, and the credibility of India's resolution framework.

In setting aside the ₹8,415 crore write-off, the court observed that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was a "mere bystander," allowing Yes Bank's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET-1) ratio to fall to 0.6%. It also held that making investors bear the consequences of administrative lapses would be unfair.

The judgement does not make AT-1 bonds risk-free. Nor does it invalidate their legitimate loss-absorption role. It does, however, underline a basic principle: financial stability cannot substitute for legal authority, and a crisis does not place regulatory decisions beyond judicial scrutiny.

When the rules fail a rescue

AT-1 bonds were conceived as a source of bank capital that could absorb losses without immediately burdening taxpayers. They are perpetual instruments with discretionary coupons and contractual loss-absorption provisions, occupying an uneasy space between debt and equity.

The Yes Bank dispute raised the question of whether the write-off was authorized under the reconstruction scheme. That determination matters. Investors must accept the risks embedded in their instruments, but regulators must act within the legal framework governing resolution. A rescue may be necessary and successful without every measure adopted during it being legally sustainable.

The court's ruling should, therefore, prompt a review of the resolution framework, rather than a blanket rejection of AT-1 bonds or an assumption that investors are always entitled to recover their money.

The AT-1 dilemma—a capital instrument in search of a purpose

Its fundamental problem is economic. This instrument is callable at the issuer's discretion, but not redeemable at the investor's demand. Yet, in practice, issuers commonly call AT-1 bonds on their first call date, even when retaining the capital might make better economic or liquidity sense. This market convention weakens their credibility as genuinely perpetual, loss-absorbing capital.

A regulatory capital instrument whose effective life is determined by market convention rather than its contractual design raises legitimate questions about the quality of the capital it provides.

There is a deeper contradiction. In business-as-usual conditions, AT-1 ranks ahead of equity in the payment hierarchy. When solvency comes under pressure, however, its holders can face losses before shareholders have necessarily borne equivalent pain. The Yes Bank controversy, alongside the Credit Suisse episode, exposes this tension between the instrument's debt-like appeal in normal times and equity-like vulnerability in distress. The precise contractual and legal circumstances differ, but both episodes challenge the assumption that this hybrid can reconcile competing interests without friction.

The investor dilemma is equally stark. AT-1 offers limited upside, making it unattractive to equity investors seeking participation in growth. Its potentially severe downside makes it unsuitable for investors seeking the relative predictability of conventional corporate bonds. Raising coupons to compensate for risk increases banks' funding costs and can dilute earnings per share.

The original attraction was obvious: equity-like loss absorption without equity dilution. Perhaps it was too good to be true.

India should examine whether AT-1 merits continued recognition as regulatory capital. The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has decided to phase out AT-1 eligibility, with a transition extending to 2032. India need not copy the decision mechanically. But it should consider a phased transition towards simpler, more dependable capital, while protecting existing contractual rights and assessing the implications for banks' funding costs and lending.

The regulator's lessons

RBI's role deserves measured scrutiny. The court's observations invite questions about whether supervisory intervention could have been more effective and whether the reconstruction scheme adequately specified the treatment of AT-1 holders. The preservation of depositors' interests and the continuity of Yes Bank were important achievements, but we can still learn from the episode.

There is also the issue of mis-selling. AT-1 instruments were reportedly sold to some customers as substitutes for fixed deposits, despite their fundamentally different risks. Better disclosure, suitability standards and enforcement are essential. Protecting investors does not mean shielding them from disclosed risks; it means ensuring that the risks sold are the risks understood.

Will the confidence of foreign investors be hurt?

The timing is significant. Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) acquired a substantial stake in Yes Bank in 2025, while the litigation remained unresolved. It would be reasonable to assume that the pending case formed part of SMBC's investment-risk assessment, though its actual assessment of the verdict is unknown.

One Supreme Court judgement need not deter foreign investment. The judiciary correcting a regulatory misstep can strengthen institutional credibility. What investors need, however, is predictability, transparent rules, consistent enforcement and resolution powers that withstand legal scrutiny.

Daichi Sankyo's troubled acquisition of Ranbaxy offers a different but relevant reminder of how governance failures can affect confidence in Indian investments. The circumstances are distinct, but institutional credibility remains central to both domestic and foreign capital.

The Yes Bank verdict should prompt neither triumphalism among bondholders nor defensiveness among regulators. It should trigger a serious reconsideration of AT-1's economic rationale, the quality of bank supervision and the legal foundations of resolution.

Financial stability is indispensable. But a rescue that preserves a bank at the cost of confidence in the rules risks solving one problem by creating another.