Newspaper Summary 210326

 The article titled "Welfare Push" (headlined in the full text as "Govt planning expanded worker cover") by Dalip Singh is reproduced below:

Govt planning expanded worker cover

WELFARE PUSH. Labour Ministry examining domestic, international models to draw up social security scheme for gig employees

The Union Labour and Employment Ministry is considering expanding social security with insurance cover to at least 32 crore unorganised, gig and platform workers to fulfil the mandate provided by the four Labour Codes, which are in the final stages of implementation.

The Employees’ State Insurance Corporation (ESIC), under the Labour and Employment Ministry, is going through various domestic and international models in its initial deliberations to arrive at a suitable scheme for expanding social security coverage for the unorganised, gig and platform workers, Ministry sources said.

SUBSIDY MODEL

Broadly, the Ministry is exploring a worker’s voluntary contribution plus government subsidy to move forward in this direction to overcome constrained public resources. Presently, it is voluntary for the unorganised workers. After the proposed scheme is implemented, it will be easy for unorganised workers to onboard because large numbers will reduce the premium for the proposed insurance scheme, Ministry sources said.

“The social security can be tax funded or partly tax funded. But the most important part is how to generate income since the government does not have money to make the scheme completely tax funded,” they said.

The Ministry has roped in the VV Giri National Labour Institute to carry out impact analysis on the four Labour Codes. Director General of the Institute Arvind told businessline: “The survey will begin after three to four months to assess the impact of various aspects of the four codes on workers and employers”.

TAX FUNDED

India has multiple welfare schemes, which operate mostly on a fully tax funded model and a few on contribution basis, but they are fragmented. Key among the central schemes are:

• Pradhan Mantri Suraksha Bima Yojana: An accident insurance (₹2 lakh cover) available to individuals aged between 18 and 70 years, at a very low annual premium of ₹20, auto-debited from individual bank accounts.
• Pradhan Mantri Jeevan Jyoti Bima Yojana: A life insurance scheme providing ₹2 lakh cover against death due to any cause to bank account holders aged between 18 and 50 years, with an annual premium of ₹436.
• Ayushman Bharat Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana: A health scheme.
• Pradhan Mantri Shram Yogi Maandhan: An old age pension scheme.

However, there is currently no universal insurance coverage for the unorganised, gig and platform workers.

A BIG CHALLENGE

The Ministry is looking to plug the social security gap, which officials believe is very challenging given its volume and the complex nature of the unorganised sector. As per the e-shram portal, there are 31 crore unorganised registered workers, but the figure goes up to 50 crore according to NITI Aayog. There are also about one crore gig and platform workers.

Since welfare schemes must be provided to workers and their families, the total coverage could reach 128 crore persons (calculating for 32 crore workers with an average family size of four). These workers are mostly spread across 32 cities, including metros and 23 tier-II cities.

Legal Framework:

• Section 109 of the Code on Social Security, 2020: Tasks the Central government with framing schemes for life and disability cover, health and maternity benefits, old age protection, and education for unorganised workers.
• Section 114: Covers gig and platform workers.
• Funding: The Code specifies funding by the Centre, the States, or both, as well as through corporate social responsibility (CSR) programmes.

Several countries provide insurance to informal workers through state-funded, contributory, or hybrid systems, with Thailand being one of the most cited models.

The article titled "Large lenders rein in retail loan GNPAs" by Yashaswani Chauhan is reproduced below:

Large lenders rein in retail loan GNPAs

DATA FOCUS.

The retail loan books of both private and public sector banks increased sharply in the years after the pandemic as banks chased loans from individuals to grow business. Sharp practices adopted by some of these lenders, as highlighted by the RBI, have led to an increase in risk and bad loans.

However, data revealed as a response to an unstarred question in the Lok Sabha show that the largest lenders, such as SBI, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, managed to contain the gross non-performing assets (GNPA) in retail loans between April and December 2025. But many private sector banks, led by Axis Bank, continued to register a rise in bad retail loans.

In absolute terms, the State Bank of India reported the highest retail GNPA at ₹11,168 crore as of December 31, 2025. This was, however, almost unchanged from the ₹11,109 crore at the end of March 2025. HDFC Bank, which has the second-largest retail loan GNPA, recorded a decline of 8 per cent in the first three quarters of FY26. ICICI Bank, too, recorded a decline of 11 per cent.

RBI’s regulatory tightening, along with a revival in credit demand from industry, appears to have made larger banks exercise more prudence in retail lending. An increase in interest rates also appears to have decreased demand.

PRIVATE VS PUBLIC

But many private sector banks have reported higher growth in retail GNPAs. Axis Bank witnessed the steepest increase between April and December 2025, rising 23 per cent to ₹7,381 crore. IDBI Bank followed with 21.64 per cent growth. Bandhan Bank, IDFC First and IndusInd Bank were the other private lenders in the top six, recording the highest growth in retail GNPAs. Bank of Baroda was the only public sector lender in the list.

In contrast, public sector banks topped the list of banks recording the highest decline in retail GNPAs. Indian Bank reported the steepest fall, with retail GNPA declining 39 per cent to ₹958 crore. Canara Bank saw a 37 per cent drop to ₹1,451 crore. Bank of India, Punjab National Bank and Union Bank of India posted double-digit declines. Federal Bank was the only private sector lender in this list.

Prof Anil Sood of the Institute for Advanced Studies in Complex Choices (IASCC) noted that PSBs are structurally less exposed. “PSBs are not major players in the retail market; the pressure to grow their retail loan book is limited. It is not surprising that the quality of their retail assets is better than that of the private sector chasing volume for growth,” he said, adding that PSBs had a lower share in credit cards and unsecured personal loans.

Vivek Iyer, Partner and Financial Services Risk Leader, Grant Thornton Bharat, said the divergence among peers reflects the differences in risk appetite. “Customer acquisition strategies are designed based on the demographic profile aligned very closely to the risk profile,” he said.

Experts are of the view that while retail credit growth may be nearing its peak, GNPA levels could rise for a few more quarters before stabilising.

The article titled "Govt’s ₹20,000 cr scheme to ease MFIs’ funds crunch" is reproduced below:

Govt’s ₹20,000 cr scheme to ease MFIs’ funds crunch

Our Bureau Mumbai The scheme comes amid a sharp decline in bank funding to microfinance institutions

The government has rolled out a ₹20,000 crore Credit Guarantee Scheme for Microfinance Institutions 2.0, a move the industry body Microfinance Industry Network (MFIN) said would help revive credit flow to underserved segments and ease funding constraints in the sector.

The scheme comes amid a sharp decline in bank funding to microfinance institutions (MFIs), particularly small players. According to MFIN, bank lending to the sector dropped nearly 70 per cent between the fourth quarter of FY24 and the third quarter of FY26, severely impacting liquidity.

LOAN PRICING

Loans under the scheme will be priced at a capped rate linked to the EBLR or 1-year MCLR plus 2 per cent. In turn, MFIs must lend at least 1 percentage point below their average rate over the past six months. Loans will have a maximum tenure of three years, including a one-year moratorium.

Exposure is capped at 20 per cent of an MFI’s AUM, with absolute limits of ₹100 crore for small, ₹200 crore for medium and ₹300 crore for large MFIs. The scheme also mandates that at least 5 per cent of the loans go to small MFIs and 10 per cent to mid-size players. Credit guarantee cover ranges from 70 per cent for large MFIs to 75 per cent for medium and 80 per cent for small MFIs.

ASSET QUALITY

The launch also coincides with improving asset quality metrics. Portfolio at Risk (PAR) for 31-90 days declined to 1.6 per cent from 3.2 per cent a year ago, indicating better repayment.

However, constrained liquidity has weighed on growth, with the industry’s portfolio standing at ₹3.15 lakh crore as of December 31, 2025, a 7.3 per cent sequential decline. The funding crunch has had a direct impact on borrowers, with MFIN estimating that nearly 50 lakh customers lost access to formal credit due to reduced lending activity.

The article titled "India plans LPG imports from Russia, Japan; shipments to arrive mid-April" by Rishi Ranjan Kala is reproduced below:

India plans LPG imports from Russia, Japan; shipments to arrive mid-April

Rishi Ranjan Kala New Delhi

As the conflict in West Asia intensifies, throttling 60 per cent of India’s consumption, the government is scouting for cargoes of the key cooking fuel from Russia and Japan, while also depending on the US for a major share of the lost cargoes. Besides prioritising domestic liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) consumption over commercial use, sources said that India has also intensified diplomatic efforts to secure cargoes of the critical commodity — the main cooking fuel for more than 33 crore consumers.

TALKS UNDERWAY

“Cargoes are being sought from Russia, which are expected to start from next month. Talks are ongoing. Deliberations are also on to explore LPG from Japan, albeit the quantities will be low. Japan cargoes, if fixed, should reach India by mid-April. At this point, the objective is to arrange as much as possible from wherever possible,” said one of the sources.

On Thursday, Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson for the Ministry of External Affairs, said India aims to secure LPG from all available sources, including Russia, to meet domestic fuel needs.

LPG MARKET TIGHT

“The silver lining is the ongoing diplomatic dialogue between Iran and India. This engagement helped enable Indian-flagged LPG carriers to transit the region, setting a positive precedent,” said Charles Kim, Associate Director for LPG at S&P Global Commodities at Sea. Continued cooperation could support the passage of additional Indian-linked ships, keeping vital supply routes workable for India and offering some relief to the broader market, he added.

Besides, India is already in talks with the US to procure more propane cargoes. The world’s second-largest importer procured nearly 4,80,000 tonnes of US-origin LPG in the first two months of 2026, corresponding to around 11 very large gas carriers (VLGCs). It has already secured a term tender for 2.2 million tonnes of US-origin LPG for 2026 – equivalent to about four VLGCs per month, said S&P.

SHIFT IN IMPORTS

According to S&P Commodities At Sea (CAS), India’s weekly LPG imports fell to 265,000 tonnes in the week to March 19, from 322,000 tonnes on March 5. West Asian inflows to India declined to just 89,000 tonnes in the week to March 19, representing only 34 per cent of total imports, the lowest share since January.

Alternative regional supplies increased to 176,000 tonnes in the week to March 19, up from zero the previous week when West Asia accounted for 100 per cent of imports, CAS data showed. LPG prices have also risen amid persistent supply disruptions. Platts, part of the S&P Global Energy, assessed FOB AG propane and butane cargoes $9 per tonne higher day over day at $648 per tonne and $642 per tonne, respectively, on March 18.

The article titled "India leads OTT content spend growth in Asia-Pacific" by Vallari Sanzgiri is reproduced below:

India leads OTT content spend growth in Asia-Pacific

Vallari Sanzgiri Mumbai

Indian content platforms are driving spends in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, as per data from Ampere Analysis, shared in a Content India Trends report. Offerings such as crime dramas and family content garnered a strong demand, particularly from the Middle East and the US.

Over the last five years, Indian media powerhouses and global streamers have driven the content spend trend, going from 8 per cent of $20.4 billion in 2021 to an estimated 12 per cent of $22 billion in 2026. JioStar, Zee Entertainment and Sony India, commissioned the bulk of titles in 2025, the data showed.

ONLINE POWERHOUSE

JioStar led with around 140 commissioned titles while runner-up Zee commissioned around 80 titles in the year. Sony commissioned around 50 titles. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, the US and the Philippines were the top markets for such content, with scripted content dominating globally at 88 per cent.

Hannah Walsh, Principal Analyst, Ampere Analysis, speaking at the Content India Summit 2026, organized by Dish TV, said India had become a global content powerhouse, producing over 24,000 titles in January 2026, with 19,000 available internationally.

Taking a five-year outlook, Daoud Jackson, Senior Analyst, OMDIA, estimated online video in India to nearly double the revenue of traditional TV, becoming the main driver of growth in 2030. Jackson also noted how India produced a quarter of all YouTube videos globally in 2025.

The article titled "Edible oil sector seeks balanced policy" is reproduced below:

Edible oil sector seeks balanced policy

Our Bureau Mangaluru

The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) has stated that the vegetable oil and oilseed sector is at a crucial juncture due to global disruptions, weather uncertainties, and domestic fundamentals. In a monthly letter to members, SEA President Sanjeev Asthana emphasized that a balanced approach—combining policy support, market intelligence, and stakeholder collaboration—is essential to navigate the current landscape.

INFLATIONARY PRESSURES

Asthana noted that elevated crude oil prices directly increase the production and transportation costs of edible oils, leading to inflationary pressure in India. Furthermore, volatility in freight and insurance premiums has raised the landed cost of imported edible oils. To maintain price stability, he called for:

• Strict monitoring
• Cautious procurement strategies
• Strong policy support

He added that coordinated efforts across the export-import ecosystem would significantly help ease these burdens.

WEATHER CONCERNS

The sector is also facing significant weather-related risks. Emerging signals now point toward a strong El Niño, potentially a "Super El Niño" phase, shifting away from previous La Niña expectations. While parts of South America may see favorable conditions, there are production risks in Asia.

For India, this development raises serious concerns about below-normal monsoon rainfall, which could adversely affect kharif oilseed sowing, leading to lower acreage and tighter domestic supplies.

Based on the provided excerpts from the March 21, 2026, edition of the Delhi Mint, there are two sections on page 02 that discuss the film Dhurandhar: The Revenge.

Film Review (Main Section)

"One of the biggest films of the year so far returns with its sequel. Before it continues the bloody ascent of Hamza (Ranveer Singh) in the Karachi underworld, Dhurandhar: The Revenge gives us the origin story promised in the final moments of the first film. Yet, the film feels long and a tad too brutal, and misses the electric, swaggering presence of Akshaye Khanna as Lyari gangster Rehman Dakait (whom Hamza killed at the end of part 1). Director Aditya Dhar can fashion hard, serrated action but he loses himself in the invention of new brutalities, writes Uday Bhatia. The violence would be a lot more monotonous if it wasn’t for..."

(Note: The source text for this specific review blurb ends here in the provided document.)

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Summary from "New on Screens"

"With the monster success of the first film, the anticipation for the sequel, in theatres just three months later, is unprecedented in recent Hindi cinema. Aditya Dhar’s Dhurandhar: The Revenge continues the story of Hamza/Jaskirat (Ranveer Singh), an Indian spy who rises to the top of the underworld in Lyari, Karachi. (In theatres)"

Based on the provided sources from page 02 of the March 21, 2026, edition of the Delhi Mint, the coverage regarding cortisol is split into two sections. However, please note that in the source text, the specific header "How to prevent cortisol spikes" is followed by text regarding fashion designer Manish Malhotra, indicating a likely layout mismatch in the original document excerpts.

Here are the relevant sections as they appear:

Raging past the point of exhaustion

An increasing number of people are living in a state of constant activation: poor sleep, non-stop stimulation, emotional overload, late meals, too much caffeine, and almost no real decompression. Such chronic stress keeps cortisol levels elevated, and this in turn can further interfere with sleep, digestion, reproduction and growth-related processes. It makes a person seem like they are high-functioning and this state is often mistaken for ambition or productivity, writes fitness and wellness coach Luke Coutinho. High cortisol is not a problem by itself. The real problem is a body that never gets the signal that it is safe. Coutinho explains

How to prevent cortisol spikes

Designer Manish Malhotra will return to the Lakmé Fashion Week x FDCI runway this weekend after a break of several years, and he plans to debut his prêt collection as well as his accessory line. While couture will always remain the foundation of the brand, he says that the demand for the craftsmanship, attention to detail and sense of glamour of luxury fashion has extended to ready-to-wear as well. Prêt also gives designers a chance to work with lighter silhouettes and challenges them to think about designing clothes for comfort. Manish Mishra speaks to the designer about his upcoming prêt collection, the role of

Based on page 12 of the March 21, 2026, edition of the Delhi Mint, here is the reproduced book review by Somak Ghoshal:

Love and revenge in the time of the coronavirus

Ashok Ferrey’s latest novel, Hot Butter Cuttlefish, is set in the fictional lakeside village of Kalabola in Sri Lanka during the covid-19 years. The protagonist, Malik, is a recently divorced personal trainer who has relocated to this sleepy outpost, leaving behind his life in the city of Colpetty in the hope of some peace and quiet. But new adventures find him in exile as he becomes inadvertently involved in the lives of the local aristocrat fallen on hard times, 58-year-old Arthur, and his prospective bride, a 23-year-old woman called Chanchala, who has her heart fixed on the estate owned by her betrothed’s family.

The narrative intersperses Malik’s first-person narrative with a third-person omniscient voice, heightening the unreliability of his characters. As soon as the reader begins to trust their intentions, they start acting in ways that raise suspicions about their motives. Is Chanchala, the nubile beauty, solely drawn to Arthur (referred to as the “suddha”, or brown sahib, by the locals) for his inheritance?. Or is there a flicker of affection in her scheming heart?. For that matter, is Malik keen to intervene in this odd pair’s lives out of goodwill or self-interest?. Can the personal trainer who ends up acting as a proxy therapist to his clients keep himself out of trouble?.

As with all his novels—The Ceaseless Chatter of Demons (2016) being a personal favourite—Ferrey is effortlessly funny in Hot Butter Cuttlefish, even when he is dealing with subjects that are decidedly not amusing. Humour, as he told poet and writer Tishani Doshi in an interview in The Hindu in 2019, is a by-product of his writing. His stories dive deep into the Sri Lankan mindset, or what passes for it—the stoic passivity with which ordinary people react to misfortunes, authoritarian politicians, and other turbulences in their lives.

Kamala’s brute strength of mind and body, as well as her dithering between loathing and loyalty for Arthur, complicate the plot, especially during the topsy-turvy ethos of the covid era. Their domestic squabbles take on violent turns, as Kamala’s visceral hatred for Chanchala, whom she calls “vaisey” (or loose woman), reaches a fever pitch. As the pandemic spreads, people begin to die like flies. But even as Kamala is afflicted by the disease, she manages to recover with great aplomb and is promptly turned into a mascot for a miracle cure peddled by her cousin Biju, an unscrupulous minister. Just as Arthur had once rejected Kamala, she too had turned down Biju’s offer of marriage in the past.

Years later, as the three meet under changed circumstances, she appears as a raging saviour, threatening to expose Biju's frauds as he attempts to buy the estate below market rate. “Some atavistic memory of a feudalism long gone, some little whiff of primeval fear, rose up in his throat,” Ferrey writes, as Kamala confronts Biju, who beats a retreat, despite his political influence. If this isn’t true love, what is?. Or is it perhaps the long-awaited revenge of the underdog?.

It is a cleverly plotted novel, nimble-footed in its unfolding, acerbic and entertaining as a social satire. Ferrey is especially sharp in his critique of the colonial hangover that looms large over the psyche of his people. If the pace does sag in the middle, the gossipy, small-town energy never allows the story to become boring. Partly standing in for the author, Malik is a slippery character, hard to fathom. His monologues are endearing to begin with but get repetitive.

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Hot Butter Cuttlefish: By Ashok Ferrey, Penguin Random House India, 240 pages, ₹499.

Based on page 08 of the March 21, 2026, edition of the Delhi Mint, here is the article Prague’s metamorphosis as it appears in the sources:

Prague’s metamorphosis

In hindsight, 18 is probably not the age to read Franz Kafka’s The Metamorphosis. I stumbled upon the book by accident, raced through its 80-odd pages and was shell-shocked for a few days. For someone who’d grown up on a strict but voracious diet of Agatha Christie, Arthur Conan Doyle and Erle Stanley Gardner, I did not comprehend much of it, but the dark helplessness of a man suddenly finding himself turned into an insect on waking up one morning wasn’t lost.

When I finally got a chance to visit Prague 20 years later, I found Kafka everywhere, as statues, sculptures and souvenirs. Ironically, in his work, Prague lives only by allusion, never overtly. It is a theme that is explored in considerable detail at the Franz Kafka Museum in Mala Strana, which is dimly lit by design to reflect the author’s penchant for gloom. Yet, the city itself is full of life and joy.

The brooding Prague Castle, labyrinthine streets, towering spires and stone facades of ancient buildings are interpreted as claustrophobic and...

(Note: The text for this article ends abruptly in the provided source material as the next column begins.)

Based on page 17 of the March 21, 2026, edition of the Delhi Mint, here is the article Centre invites bidders to set up rare earth magnet plants by Manas Pimpalkhare:

Centre invites bidders to set up rare earth magnet plants

₹7,250 crore incentive scheme for five plants aims to secure supply chain, build local capacity

The Centre on Friday launched a ₹7,280-crore incentive programme, inviting bidders to build five rare-earth magnet plants to secure its critical mineral supply chain. The scheme aims to build local capacity for a crucial component used in sectors such as defence, electronics, renewable energy, and automobiles.

Prospective applicants can submit their bids to establish integrated sintered neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnet manufacturing facilities in India and can be eligible for availing capital subsidy as well as sales-linked incentives under the government’s rare earth permanent magnet (REPM) scheme, the ministry said in a statement. The scheme provides a capital subsidy of ₹750 crore for setting up five processing units and a sales-linked incentive of ₹6,450 crore for all beneficiaries upon commencement of production.

The scheme received the Cabinet’s assent on 26 November, and official guidelines were notified on 15 December. The raw material required—rare earth oxides—will be supplied to the three lowest bidders by the only rare earth miner in the country, state-run India Rare Earths Ltd (IREL). The seven-year scheme targets an annual capacity of 6,000 tonnes, providing two years for construction followed by five years of sales-linked incentives.

The scheme was created in response to the global supply chain disruption caused by China's halt to exports of rare-earth magnets in April last year, amid an intense tariff war between Beijing and Washington, DC. China accounts for about 60% of the world's rare earth mining and 90% of processing capacity.

Despite its mining and refining strengths, India lacks midstream capacity to produce rare-earth magnets, leaving manufacturers entirely dependent on imports. A pre-bid meeting will be held on 7 April, following which interested parties can bid for magnet-making capacity in the range of 600-1,200 tonnes, according to the global tender floated by the project management agency, Industrial Finance Corp. of India (IFCI). Technical bids will be opened on 29 May. Bidders will have to pay ₹4.5 lakh as the tender fee and ₹1 crore as earnest money deposit.

Based on the March 21, 2026, edition of the Delhi Mint, here is the article Conflict throws up rare winner in Great Eastern Shipping (initially titled "War throws up rare winner in Great Eastern Shipping" on page 18) by Nehal Chaliawala:

Conflict throws up rare winner in Great Eastern Shipping

As war roils the Persian Gulf and the global economy feels its shockwaves, just across the Arabian Sea in Mumbai sits Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd, one of the few winners of a conflict that nobody but a few wanted.

India's largest private ship-owner, with a fleet of 40 vessels, is benefiting as global ship chartering rates surge amid the war entering its fourth week on Saturday. The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) and the Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI), which track the prices of unrefined crude and refined oil product tankers, respectively, have doubled from their 12-month averages, according to data.

GE Shipping is the operator of Jag Laadki, which was only the fourth vessel to cross the Strait of Hormuz since Iran blockaded the strategic passage two weeks ago. Carrying around 81,000 tonnes of crude oil, the vessel reached the Mundra port on Wednesday. Jag Prakash, another GE Shipping vessel, has also managed to cross the strait, as per reports.

The company’s shares have gained more than 27% since the beginning of 2026, compared to a 12% correction in the Sensex over the same period. Experts said that, unlike smaller Indian shipping companies that focus on logistics between Indian ports, most of GE Shipping’s fleet transits on international routes, giving it the full advantage of the elevated global freight rates. The company owns five crude carriers, 16 refined petroleum product tankers, five liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) vessels, and 14 dry bulk carriers that move materials such as iron ore and coal.

Notably, the company has gradually increased its exposure to the spot market over the past 12 months, enabling it to fully capitalise on market volatility. Per-day freight rates in the spot market, where vessels are chartered for a voyage, are nearly twice as much as those for one-year leases.

A year ago, GE Shipping had about a fifth of its crude and product tankers and about 30-40% of its dry bulk carriers on time charter. Presently, the entirety of its crude fleet is on the spot market, and the share of dry bulk carriers on the spot market has gone up to 80-85%.

“Typically, on the shipping segments, we have about between 15% and 20% of the capacity on time charter... In crude, we are 100% on spot currently,” G. Shivakumar, executive director and chief financial officer at GE Shipping, said on an investor call. All five of the company’s LPG carriers remain on time charter, he added.

“Companies like GE Shipping are very substantially exposed to global shipping markets. Currently, exposure to the spot market would greatly help them because rates have skyrocketed,” said Amit Oza, director at Astramar Shipping & Trading Services. Large shipping companies like GE Shipping have strong research teams that analyze market conditions and geopolitical scenarios to advise their chartering teams on how much exposure to maintain in the spot market.

GE Shipping reported consolidated revenue of ₹1,737 crore during the quarter ended 31 December, up 16% year-on-year. Profit was up by over a third to ₹813 crore. The consolidated financials include income from subsidiary Greatship (India) Ltd, which is a major player in offshore oilfield services. The company had gross debt of ₹1,049 crore as of 31 December and was net cash-positive at ₹7,277 crore.

Based on the Media Marketing Initiative on page 13 of the March 21, 2026, edition of the Delhi Mint, here is the article REC Showcases ‘Green Multiplier’ Pavilion at BES 2026:

REC Showcases ‘Green Multiplier’ Pavilion at BES 2026

The REC Limited Pavilion was inaugurated at the summit by Union Ministers Manohar Lal, Pralhad Joshi and Shripad Naik, in the presence of senior officials including Power Secretary Pankaj Agarwal and REC CMD Jitendra Srivastava. Designed as a contemporary, technology-driven space, the pavilion highlights the theme “Financing India’s Energy Abundance”.

At its core is the concept of the “Green Multiplier,” reflecting REC’s role in accelerating sustainable development by expanding access, opportunity and clean energy adoption. Through its immersive design and vibrant visual identity, the pavilion captures the spirit of India’s energy transition, symbolising growth, resilience and a shift towards a low-carbon future. It underscores REC’s commitment to enabling a greener, more inclusive energy ecosystem aligned with the nation’s long-term sustainability goals.

Newspaper Summary 200326

 

Sensex, Nifty crash 3.26% in biggest fall since June 2024

BIG SHOCK. Crude above $110 & hawkish US Fed hurt sentiment; HDFC Bank leads fall Anupama Ghosh — Mumbai

In their worst single-day fall since June 2024, the BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 crashed 3.3 per cent on Thursday, weighed down by a sharp sell-off in HDFC Bank, a spike in crude prices, and the hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve. The Sensex fell nearly 2,500 points and the Nifty tumbled over 775 points, with Shriram Finance, Eternal, and HDFC Bank leading the losses.

INDIA VIX SURGES

The volatility indicator, India VIX, surged over 21 per cent to 22.80. The sell-off, triggered by the escalating West Asia conflict that sent Brent crude surging past $110 per barrel, wiped out the gains of the past three sessions in a single day. The US Federal Reserve’s decision to hold benchmark rates steady at 3.50-3.75 per cent, while signalling a higher inflation outlook due to rising energy prices, compounded the negative sentiment.

“... The near-term outlook remains strongly bearish, and any pullback towards resistance levels is likely to be sold into unless sentiment improves materially,” said Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking. The Nifty opened with a gap-down of 580 points and slid further to close near a one-year low. Bank Nifty fell 3.4 per cent, and all sectoral indices closed in the red, with auto, realty, financial services, and private bank indices among the worst losers.

DII buying provided only a partial cushion. Against FPI selling of ₹7,207 crore, DIIs bought shares worth ₹3,410 crore on Thursday. Downstream oil refiners, paint companies, tyre manufacturers, and aviation stocks bore additional pain from margin-compression fears. The Nifty Midcap 100 fell 3.19 per cent and the Nifty Smallcap 100 dropped 2.94 per cent. Globally, Asian markets closed sharply lower, falling between 1 and 3.5 per cent, while equities across Europe were down in the range of 1-4 per cent.

BULLION TUMBLES

Contrary to expectations, safe-haven assets offered no refuge. Gold fell over 3.4 per cent on the Comex, breaching $4,700/oz, while silver dropped nearly 6 per cent as the Fed’s hawkish posture strengthened the dollar. Analysts stated that a clear de-escalation in West Asia is the only near-term catalyst that can arrest the downtrend, failing which the index remains biased towards further weakness.

‘Iranian attack wipes out 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity for up to five years’

Reuters — Dubai / Doha

Iranian attacks have knocked out 17 per cent of Qatar’s LNG export capacity, causing an estimated $20 billion in lost annual revenue and threatening supplies to Europe and Asia, said QatarEnergy’s CEO.

Saad Al-Kaabi said two of Qatar’s 14 LNG trains and one of its two gas-to-liquids (GTL) facilities were damaged in the strikes. The repairs will sideline 12.8 million tonnes per year of LNG for three to five years, he said. “I never in my wildest dreams would have thought that Qatar and the region would be in such an attack, especially from a brotherly Muslim country,” said Kaabi.

Hours earlier, Iran aimed a series of attacks at Gulf oil and gas facilities after Israeli attacks on its own gas infrastructure. State-owned QatarEnergy will have to declare force majeure on long-term contracts for up to five years for LNG supplies bound for Italy, Belgium, South Korea and China due to the two damaged trains, said Kaabi.

Exit rattles mutual fund investors, concerns loom

Suresh P Iyengar — Mumbai

The top 10 fund houses have invested about ₹90,000 crore in the shares of the bank

The sudden exit of Atanu Chakraborty as Part-time Chairman of HDFC Bank has not only wiped out ₹1 lakh crore in market-cap of the bank but also sent chills across the mutual fund industry, with top fund houses having significant exposure to the stock. The top 10 mutual fund houses alone have invested about ₹90,000 crore in the shares of the country’s second largest bank.

The stock has already fallen 9 per cent so far in this month, touching a new low of ₹772 before closing at ₹800 on Thursday. The stock has seen a 15 per cent decline year-to-date. Among MF schemes, most of the Nifty Bank Index Funds and ETFs have exposure of 19.83 per cent to 19.70 per cent in HDFC Bank.

Global financial services firm Macquarie stated that while fundamentals remain strong with healthy return on assets, investor sentiment will stay pressured until the board offers greater clarity. The brokerage also warned that uncertainty around CEO Sashidhar Jagdishan’s reappointment could further weigh on the stock.

Gibin John, Senior Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments, said about 127 schemes had an exposure of over 5 per cent to the stock and any price movement in HDFC Bank will be reflected in the NAVs of these schemes. While short-term investors with high equity allocation could consider booking profit, he added that investors with a five-year horizon could stay invested.

Anuj Badjate, Managing Director, Badjate Stock & Shares, said shares of HDFC Bank had already corrected 20–25 per cent from ₹1,000 to ₹800 levels, suggesting that a significant portion of the current concerns had been reflected in valuations.

STABLE ASSET QUALITY

HDFC Bank continues to be one of the most institutionally owned and closely tracked franchises, with a historically stable asset quality profile and disciplined underwriting track record. At this stage, the development appears to be a sentiment and valuation adjustment, rather than a reflection of balance sheet stress, he added.

Earlier in the day, the Reserve Bank of India stepped in to assuage concerns and described HDFC Bank as a “domestic systemically important bank” with strong financials. The RBI said, based on its periodical assessment, there were no material concerns on record as regards to its conduct or governance.

Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer, Master Capital Services, said while the fundamental attributes of the bank had not changed overnight, the comments from a senior official hold importance and introduce a degree of corporate governance scrutiny. Though investors holding banking sector funds or thematic financial services funds could see volatility in the NAV given the concentrated exposure, diversified funds will have a natural cushion against the blow, he added.

Market correction opens tremendous opportunity for FPIs: SEBI Member

ON THE CHART. Regulator eyes smoother access for Russian investors; pitches India listings, Gift City route Our Bureau — Mumbai

Recent corrections in Indian equities amid geopolitical tensions have made valuations “quite attractive,” creating a “tremendous opportunity” for foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to increase allocations, said Kamlesh Chandra Varshney, Whole-Time Member, Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). “There is a tremendous opportunity to invest in Indian equity markets with the kind of correction which has taken place in the last few months, particularly after the war broke out,” Varshney said at a Russia-India forum on capital market integration at the NSE.

His comments come even as FPIs have remained net sellers so far in FY26, with over ₹77,000 crore of outflows reported in the first half of March amid global volatility linked to the West Asia conflict. Varshney said the regulator would ease procedural and technical bottlenecks for Russian investors and may consider setting up dedicated working groups to address specific requirements. He also encouraged Russian companies to tap Indian markets through local listings, noting that some subsidiaries' valuations in India exceed those of their parent companies overseas. At present, 23 Russian entities are registered as FPIs in India.

INDIA’S OFFERINGS

Ashishkumar Chauhan, MD and CEO, NSE, said India offers a broader proposition for global issuers, particularly for Russians, providing access to capital and stronger valuation outcomes. He added that India’s capital markets are becoming an increasingly important channel for long-term international economic engagement.

At the same event, Sergey Glazyev, State Secretary of the Union State of Russia and Belarus, called for a “new financial architecture” based on national currency and international trust. Sriram Krishnan, Chief Business Development Officer, NSE, suggested that Russian firms explore fundraising through Gift City, Gujarat, and consider establishing a banking presence in the hub. Separately, Varshney noted that SEBI is working on technology-led solutions to ease access and reduce business costs.

Sarkozy’s indictment, and lessons for India

FURTHERING PROBITY. France has tough laws on campaign finance. In India, the proposed 130th Constitution Amendment Bill could bolster governance, holding those at the helm to account ROHINI RANGACHARI KARNIK

La loi, dans son majestueux égalité, interdit aux riches comme aux pauvres de coucher sous les ponts, de mendier dans les rues et de voler du pain [The law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich and the poor alike to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread] — Anatole France in Le Lys Rouge (The Red Lily, 1894)

On March 16, France’s ex-President Nicolas Sarkozy went on trial on appeal over allegations that he accepted €50 million from Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi to fund his 2007 campaign. In 2025, he became the first political Head of State in modern French history to serve prison time. The only similarity dates back two centuries when King Louis XVI faced imprisonment, as other modern leaders like Jacques Chirac avoided actual jail time.

In 2013, France created the Haute Autorité pour la transparence de la vie publique (High Authority for the transparency of public life) to prevent conflicts of interest and inspect changes to the net assets of public servants. Sarkozy, who served as President from 2007 to 2012, was convicted of criminal conspiracy for accepting Libyan funding in exchange for boosting Libya’s global image. In September 2025, a Paris court sentenced him to five years in prison, a €100,000 fine, and five-year bans from public office.

STRICT OVERSIGHT

Under French law, campaign finance is strictly regulated, with donations and expenditures subject to strict caps and mandatory audits. The French Electoral Code (L.52-8) explicitly bars foreign states or legal entities from providing donations to political candidates. Sarkozy’s conviction has fueled debates on judicial independence, with some viewing it as a rule-of-law victory and others claiming it is politically driven. The ruling underscores the judiciary’s rising assertiveness against former leaders to ensure political decision-making is conducted in the public interest.

Indians recall Sarkozy as the Republic Day chief guest in 2008 and for his 2010 tour that advanced ties regarding Jaitapur nuclear power and Rafale jets. Unlike France, no Indian post-independence Prime Minister or President has been sentenced for such a long duration. While Indira Gandhi was briefly imprisoned after the Emergency and others like PV Narasimha Rao faced convictions without jail time, the Supreme Court and CBI have cleared others like Manmohan Singh in high-profile cases.

CMS IN JAIL

Conversely, several Indian Chief Ministers have been imprisoned on charges of corruption and money laundering. Arvind Kejriwal made history as the first sitting Chief Minister arrested in 2024. In Bihar, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s jailing ended the "Jungle Raj" era, leading to reforms under Nitish Kumar, though such imprisonments also often lead to political instability,.

India’s Constitution allows for branch overlaps and provides Prime Ministers and Presidents with indirect safeguards or complete immunity during their tenure. The Electoral Bond Scheme of 2018, intended to be a transparent funding method, was struck down by the Supreme Court in 2024 for violating the voters’ right to information. Currently, India still lacks a transparent method for accounting for campaign finance.

To bolster governance, the ongoing Constitution (130th Amendment) Bill 2025 seeks the removal of a Minister if they are accused of an offence punishable with five or more years of imprisonment and have been detained for 30 consecutive days. It also calls for the resignation of the Prime Minister or a Chief Minister after 30 days of detention. While under debate, this bill could strengthen public administration through constitutional morality and judicial prudence.

The writer teaches French at the Alliance française de Delhi

Investors turn to tax-loss harvesting

WORD OF CAUTION. Only genuine losses on paper qualify, regulatory or holding-period risks remain: Experts Shishir Sinha — New Delhi

Heightened market volatility and a late-March push to optimise tax outgo are prompting a growing number of equity investors to adopt tax-loss harvesting, a strategy that involves realising losses to offset gains and reduce tax liability, according to tax practitioners and wealth advisers.

HEDGE STRATEGY

Amid heightened market volatility and as the financial year nears to a close, equity investors are adopting tax-loss harvesting to offset gains and reduce tax liability. A Delhi-based entrepreneur, who asked not to be identified, said he rebalanced his portfolio after several holdings breached key price levels. He booked losses of about ₹1.2 lakh against short-term capital gains of ₹2 lakh in the current financial year, reducing his taxable gains to roughly ₹80,000. At prevailing short-term capital gains (STCG) rates, that translated into a significantly lower tax outgo.

“As prices of some of my stocks broke two support levels, I sold them at a loss of around ₹1.2 lakh. My short-term gain is effectively now ₹80,000. If I had to pay STCG tax on ₹2 lakh, my liability would have been ₹40,000, but I have paid only ₹16,000 (surcharge and cess not included). The adjustment is within the law,” he said.

GROWING TREND

Advisers said that such transactions are becoming more common as markets correct and investors reassess portfolios. “Tax-loss harvesting involves selling investments that are in a loss to reduce tax liability. This can be useful in planning strategy, particularly in the current market environment and at year-end,” said Hardik Mehta, Lead-Tax at Ionic Wealth. He added that the benefit is contingent on filing income tax returns within the deadline.

Under tax rules, short-term capital losses can be set off against both short- and long-term gains, while long-term losses can be adjusted only against long-term gains. Unabsorbed losses may be carried forward for up to eight assessment years, subject to timely filing.

TAX RULES

Some advisers view the current correction as creating a window to convert unrealised losses into tax assets. “The market environment presents an opportunity for investors to review portfolios and crystallise losses for tax efficiency,” said Rahul Jain, Partner at Khaitan & Co. He cautioned that only realised losses, not notional ones, qualify.

REGULATORY SCRUTINY

Practitioners, however, warn against treating the strategy as mechanical. “Factors such as overall portfolio strategy, impact of the FIFO method, and the possibility of scrutiny in cases of immediate repurchase of similar securities should be carefully evaluated,” said Amit Maheshwari, Managing Partner, AKM Global.

Priyanka Duggal, Partner at Grant Thornton Bharat, noted that selling and re-entering positions could convert what would have been long-term capital gains, taxed at lower rates, into short-term gains taxed at higher rates.

Advisers also flag anti-avoidance provisions. According to Duggal, the General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR) may apply if transactions are deemed to lack commercial substance or are undertaken solely to evade tax. “Assessees must ensure transactions are backed by genuine commercial intent and not structured to create artificial losses,” said Rajat Mohan, Senior Partner at AMRG & Associates. He added that near-simultaneous buybacks of identical securities and inadequate documentation could invite scrutiny.

West Asia war to impact India’s direct investments in the UAE

DATA FOCUS. Sindhu Hariharan — Chennai

At a time when the ongoing political tensions in West Asia are casting a shadow of doubt on the investment potential of the GCC nations, data show that around 7 per cent of India’s monthly overseas direct investments (ODI) go to the United Arab Emirates. RBI data show that a total of $1.2 billion was invested in the UAE as outbound direct equity investment in FY26 (April-February), making up around 7 per cent of the total ODI in the 11-month period.

The investments are largely by small- and mid-size companies typically in the areas of logistics and warehousing, manufacturing, retail/trade, restaurants and hotels. In contrast, other GCC countries attract lesser ODI from India. On a monthly basis, the equity investments into the UAE are sporadic and do not follow a linear growth pattern. In December, for instance, Reliance Industries’ $350 million investment in West Asia subsidiary Reliance Industries DMCC led to a spike in overall ODI tally in the month.

Similarly, MakemyTrip and TVS Motor were among companies that made large ODI commitments into the UAE in May 2025. In February 2026, for instance, Neo Star Infraprojects, One Point One Solutions, Power Build, Sai Krish Healthcare Services, Thriveni Earthmovers and Infra, and Trejhara Solutions are among the companies with the highest equity ODI in the UAE. Similarly, Asian Paints, Bhima Jewels, Clean Max Enviro Energy Solutions, and Concord Enviro Systems made ODI in January, as per RBI data.

From April 2023 to August 2025, a cumulative $5 billion has been invested in the UAE by Indian companies as ODI (equity + loan + guarantee), which represents 10 per cent of the total ODI in this period, as per data from the Department of Economic Affairs. In the last two decades (April 2000 to August 2025), the ODI outflow from India to the UAE stands at $18.3 billion, making up 5 per cent of the total ODI.

EQUITY INVESTMENT

ODI refers to investments made by Indian entities/residents in foreign companies or their own foreign subsidiaries. Governed by the RBI, ODI can take various forms, such as equity investment in a foreign entity (joint ventures or wholly owned subsidiaries) or loans or guarantees extended to foreign affiliates.

Overall, India’s ODI in equity for FY26 (April-February) was $18.1 billion, a 28.7 per cent rise from the same period last year. Even as the ODI saw a rise in FY26, it has been tapering down in recent months due to increased macro uncertainty. In January 2026, ODI (equity) was down 13.6 per cent year-on-year at $1.5 billion, and in February it was $1.1 billion, again a 57.5 per cent drop y-o-y. Among the top ODIs in February were Tata Steel’s $625 million in wholly-owned subsidiary T Steel Holdings, Neo Star Infraprojects’ $27.7 million in its UAE subsidiary, and ONGC Videsh’s $52.8 million in its Mozambique JV.

‘World goods trade may slow to 1.9% due to Gulf crisis’

Amiti Sen — New Delhi

World trade in goods is projected to slow to 1.4-1.9 per cent in 2026 from 4.6 per cent in 2025. This decline is attributed to risks from the continued conflict in West Asia, coupled with a normalisation in the surge of AI-related products and tariff-driven front-loading of shipments, according to the WTO’s latest trade forecast. In 2027, world merchandise trade volume is projected to grow by 2.6 per cent.

The forecast noted that beyond fuels, the Strait of Hormuz blockade has disrupted fertilizer supplies critical to global agriculture. Around one-third of the world’s fertilizer exports normally pass through this waterway.

UREA IMPORTS

“Major agriculture producers like India, Thailand and Brazil depend on the Gulf for 40 per cent, 70 per cent and 35 per cent of their urea imports respectively. Gulf states face a food security challenge as well, with import dependency averaging 75 per cent for rice and exceeding 90 per cent for corn, soybeans and vegetable oil — commodities that would face higher costs through alternative routes,” the report stated.

Excluding energy price shocks, global merchandise trade growth would slow to 1.9 per cent in 2026 due to normalisation following the surge in AI-related products and front-loading of imports to avoid new tariffs in 2025.

ENERGY IMPORTS

“However, a scenario where both crude oil and LNG prices remain elevated throughout 2026 would shave 0.3 percentage points off the GDP forecast for 2026; this would in turn slash 0.5 percentage points off the trade forecast for this year and up to one percentage point for regions dependent on energy imports. This would mean merchandise trade volumes would grow by just 1.4 per cent,” the report added.

POSSIBLE LIFELINES

On the brighter side, WTO economists noted that if the conflict is short-lived and AI-related spending remains strong throughout 2026 and into 2027, merchandise trade growth could be boosted by 0.5 percentage points. This could lead to growth as high as 2.4 per cent this year and 2.7 per cent next year.

WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated that the outlook reflects the resilience of global trade, buoyed by high technology products, digitally delivered services, and supply chain adaptations.

“However, this baseline forecast is under pressure from the conflict in West Asia. Sustained increases in energy prices could increase risks for global trade, with potential spillovers for food security and cost pressures on consumers and businesses. Nevertheless, WTO members can help cushion the impact... by maintaining predictable trade policies and strengthening supply chain resilience,” she said.

Income Mobility in the Top 1 Percent

 The provided sources highlight several key findings regarding the mobility of the top one percent in the United States, emphasizing that this group is characterized by significant and persistent "circulation" rather than being a static elite.

High Rates of Circulation and Exit

The primary finding is that the composition of the top one percent changes rapidly. On average, one-third of those in the top one percent exit the group after just one year, and two-thirds are no longer in that top group after a decade. This phenomenon is even more pronounced at the extreme top of the distribution:

• Top 0.1%: Approximately 76% of individuals exit this group within a decade.
• Top 0.001%: The ten-year exit rate reaches 82%.
• Top 400: While some taxpayers persist at this level, the median tenure among the 400 highest tax returns is only one year.

Impact on Income Inequality Measures

This mobility directly affects how researchers measure and interpret income inequality. When shifting from single-year "snapshots" to multi-year measures that account for this variability:

• Lower Inequality Levels: Top income shares are considerably lower when evaluated over longer time horizons. For instance, two-decade mobility reduces recent top 1% fiscal income shares by over 10%.
• Reduced Growth Trends: Accounting for income variability over 11 years reduces the observed growth of top 1% income shares over the last quarter-century by nearly one-fifth.
• Extreme Concentration: The reduction is most significant at the highest tiers; two-decade mobility reduces top 0.001% shares by 40%.

Sources of Income Mobility

The sources distinguish between "rentiers" (capital income) and "entrepreneurs" (passthrough business and labor earnings) to identify what drives these fluctuations.

• Entrepreneurial Drive: The long-run increase in income variability among the top 1% is almost entirely attributable to entrepreneurial income.
• Passthrough Businesses: Highly volatile passthrough business income (from S corporations, partnerships, and sole proprietorships) explains about two-thirds of the increase in top 1% variability. This reflects entrepreneurs frequently circulating into and out of top annual income groups.

Comparative and Contextual Findings

• International Context: Top income mobility in the United States is higher than in many other developed countries, including Germany, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia.
• Wealth Inequality: The effects of variability on wealth inequality are similar in magnitude but more modest as a share of total wealth. Long-run top one percent wealth shares are estimated to be 3 percentage points lower than standard annual measures when using multi-year data.
• Stability of Life Events: The sources of these exits have remained relatively stable over time; for example, roughly 7% of one-decade exits are linked to "divorce" (status changes) and 20% to labor force exits like retirement.

The high degree of mobility among the top one percent—characterized by a constant "circulation" of individuals—has a significant downward impact on standard measures of income and wealth inequality,,. Because annual "snapshot" estimates do not account for individuals moving into and out of the top tiers, they often overstate long-term concentration levels,,.

Reductions in Measured Income Shares

When shifting from single-year cross-sections to multi-year income measures that account for this mobility, top income shares are considerably lower,,. The impact of accounting for mobility increases as the income group becomes more exclusive:

• Top 1%: Intragenerational mobility over two decades reduces recent top 1% fiscal income shares by approximately 12 to 15 percent,,.
• Top 0.1%: Two-decade mobility reduces these shares by over 20 percent,,.
• Top 0.01%: The reduction reaches 30 percent,,.
• Top 0.001%: The most extreme tier sees a 40 percent reduction in its share when evaluated over a long-run horizon,,.

Impact on Inequality Trends

Beyond reducing the perceived level of inequality, mobility also changes the observed trend of rising concentration,. Accounting for income variability over an 11-year period reduces the growth of the top 1% fiscal income share over the last quarter-century by nearly one-fifth,. Researchers estimate that between 1989 and 2017, income variability alone accounted for 16 to 21 percent of the total growth in annual top 1% income shares,.

Sensitivity to Income and Wealth Definitions

The magnitude of this impact depends on the definitions used:

• Broad vs. Fiscal Income: The effect of variability is smaller when using a "broad income" measure (which includes corporate retained earnings and employer-paid benefits) than when using "fiscal income" (based strictly on tax returns),. Variability reduces top 1% broad income shares by about two-thirds of the amount it reduces fiscal income shares,.
• Wealth Inequality: While multi-year wealth measures are also lower than single-year measures, the proportional effect is more modest,. Long-run top 1% wealth shares are estimated to be 3 percentage points lower than annual measures, representing about a 9 percent reduction in wealth inequality—roughly half the proportional impact seen for fiscal income,,.

Conceptual Significance

These findings suggest that multi-year measures more accurately reflect long-run consumption ability than annual snapshots. The sources argue that the increase in top-level inequality is partially driven by increased income volatility, particularly from volatile passthrough business income, which causes entrepreneurs to cycle in and out of the top groups rather than remaining a permanent, static elite,,.

According to the sources, the significant variability and mobility observed within the top one percent are primarily driven by entrepreneurial income rather than capital income. The sources divide the economic elite into two categories: entrepreneurs (whose income comes from passthrough businesses and labor earnings) and rentiers (who rely on capital income like dividends, interest, and capital gains).

The key findings regarding the sources of this variability include:

The Dominance of Entrepreneurial Income

The long-run increase in income variability among the top 1% is almost entirely attributable to entrepreneurial income.

• Passthrough Business Income: Income from S corporations, partnerships, and sole proprietorships is highly volatile. It explains approximately two-thirds of the increase in top 1% income variability.
• Wages: Wage variability accounts for about three-tenths of the increase. This is partly because top wages have become increasingly dependent on passthrough business profits.

The Role of Tax Reform

The Tax Reform Act of 1986 (TRA86) is identified as a major catalyst for increased variability.

• Shift in Business Structure: TRA86 lowered the top individual tax rate below the corporate rate, prompting a shift away from C corporations toward passthrough entities.
• Increased Reporting: This compositional shift meant that more business income—and its inherent volatility—began appearing on individual tax returns.
• Loss Limitations: New limitations on deducting passive investment and rental losses after 1986 also made reported passthrough net profits appear more variable.

Capital Income Trends

In contrast to entrepreneurial income, capital income has had a much smaller or even offsetting effect on variability.

• Capital Gains: Increases in the variability of capital gains had only a minor impact on the overall trend.
• Dividends and Interest: Variability in dividends and interest actually declined, modestly offsetting the increases seen in other income sources.

Impact of Income Definitions

The source of variability is also sensitive to how income is defined. When using a "broad income" measure (which replaces volatile realized capital gains with more stable corporate retained earnings), the measured variability of the top 1% decreases by about one-third. This is because much of the corporate retained earnings are tied to retirement savings, which are more equally distributed and less volatile than the direct capital income reported on tax returns.

The methodology used in the sources to analyze the income mobility of the top one percent centers on the use of longitudinal tax panel data to track the same individuals over decades, rather than relying on the single-year snapshots common in most inequality research.

Data Sources and Sampling

The researchers utilize three primary sets of U.S. individual income tax returns to provide a historical perspective spanning over 50 years:

• The 1973-Centered Panel: A stratified sample with significant oversampling of high-income returns.
• Continuous Work History Sample (CWHS): A random sample since 1979 based on the last four digits of Taxpayer Identification Numbers (TINs).
• The Large Panel: A five-percent sample of TINs starting in 1999 that includes both filers and non-filers, allowing for analysis of extremely small groups like the top 0.001%.

By using random sampling, this methodology addresses sampling biases found in previous studies where individuals with income losses often dropped out of panels due to changing sampling probabilities.

Sample Inclusion Criteria

To ensure the data reflects a stable population and accounts for periodic non-filers:

• Age: All individuals must be at least 20 years old throughout the multi-year period.
• Filing Frequency: Participants must file tax returns with a minimum frequency (e.g., at least seven times in a 21-year period) to be included.
• Non-filer Allocation: Those who do not file in a specific year are allocated an income equal to 20 percent of the average filer income for that year, a figure validated by information returns from the population of non-filers.

Income Definitions

The study compares two primary income measures:

• Fiscal Income: This is the main measure, defined as Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) plus adjustments, minus taxable unemployment and Social Security benefits. It includes taxable realized capital gains to maintain comparability with previous research.
• Broad Market Income: Used for sensitivity testing, this measure includes components missing from tax returns, such as corporate retained earnings, tax-exempt interest, and employer-paid insurance.

Measuring Variability and Mobility

The core of the methodology is the Variability Equation, which defines mobility as the difference between annual and multi-year top income shares:

Variability = TopShare(Annual) – TopShare(Multi-year)

TopShare(Annual) is the average of annual top shares over a period, while TopShare(Multi-year) ranks individuals based on their average income over that entire period. The difference, or "variability," identifies how much of measured inequality is due to individuals re-ranking or moving into and out of the top group.

Wealth Estimation Methodology

The researchers extend the gross capitalization approach to wealth inequality. Traditionally, this method capitalizes annual capital income to estimate wealth. This study innovates by capitalizing multi-year averages of income, which helps control for idiosyncratic year-to-year fluctuations in the rate of return rather than actual changes in underlying wealth.

Newspaper Summary 190326

 

Course correction

The overvalued Indian market is facing a reality check

Indian markets have fallen sharply since the start of the US-Israel-Iran war; they have reacted to the disruption in supply of critical energy sources, and to crude breaching $100 per barrel. The benchmark Nifty50 index has lost around 7 per cent since the war began three weeks ago, akin to other global emerging market benchmarks. However, this fall may actually be beneficial to the long-term health of our markets.

Stocks from many sectors were unhinged from fundamentals. Retail investors who entered stock markets in large numbers post-Covid propelled a surge in demand for direct and indirect equity (through the mutual fund route). As a result, Indian stocks have been quite pricey compared to other emerging markets. The Nifty50 traded at a price-earnings (PE) multiple of 21.7 times towards the end of 2025. This was at a premium to benchmark indices of other emerging markets (EMs) including China, South Korea, Brazil, and South Africa, which traded at PE multiples between 11 and 18. Stocks in consumption-oriented sectors such as FMCG, healthcare, and retail trade traded at even higher PE multiples of over 50 times.

The absence of a deep correction since the Covid-low in March 2020, with declines not exceeding 20 per cent from the peak, had led to complacency, with investors buying at every dip. Stocks remained elevated for too long. Owing to these higher valuations, foreign portfolio investors turned net sellers of India equity since September 2024, pulling out close to ₹3.5 lakh crore. The ongoing correction will help valuations to revert to their mean levels. The valuation of Nifty50 has cooled slightly, with the PE multiple declining to 19.51 times, but prices need to decline further.

And they well may. Given the multiple headwinds currently facing markets and the economy, investors should be prepared for further price corrections. If the war in West Asia prolongs, corporate margins are going to shrink as fuel, logistics, and input costs increase. Shortage of LPG and other fuel will likely further dent corporate bottom lines. The domestic economy, which was trotting along nicely before the onset of this war, is up against multiple first and second-order effects. Besides shocks in the form of prices, supplies, and asset valuations, the sentiment factor could also hurt business. It does not help that there are just a few stocks in nascent, sought-after sectors such as AI and semiconductors.

The bottom line is that market corrections should happen when the underlying fundamentals change. After all, equities are not meant to be risk-free, and excesses created in bull and bear markets need to be ironed out. The Securities and Exchange Board of India should let markets follow their course, while watching out for any undue volatility caused by manipulation. The regulator, Association of Mutual Funds in India, and other investor bodies should run awareness campaigns advising investors to pursue long-term goals with realistic expectations.

BlackSoil Capital raises ₹200 cr for climate lending

Mumbai-based alternate credit platform BlackSoil Capital raised ₹200 crore in debt funding from Impact Fund Denmark to expand climate-focused and inclusive lending in India. It will support climate adaptation and mitigation and expand access to credit for low-income and underserved segments, including MSMEs, financial institutions and emerging corporations.

A major portion of the capital will be deployed in tier-2 and tier-3 markets. It will focus on women-led businesses and sectors with limited access to formal finance with increased exposure to renewable energy, climate-smart agriculture, sustainable supply chains, circular economy models and inclusive finance. Impact Fund Denmark invests in emerging markets to support development outcomes aligned with global sustainability goals.

How poll-bound States woo women through cash transfers

DATA FOCUS.

With the Election Commission of India announcing Assembly poll schedules for Kerala, Assam, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal on March 16, commentators have started harping about how the welfare measures (especially women-specific ones) could influence voters. However, we want our readers to know just how much a qualifying woman or household from each of these States can “earn” per month from a possible combination of the direct benefit transfers (DBTs) in their States.

West Bengal Under the Kanyashree Prakalpa (K-3), girls pursuing post-graduation in science and technology are given ₹2,500 per month. Additionally, Lakshmir Bhandar gives ₹1,700 per month to women of the SC/ST communities. Given that Lakshmir Bhandar is a non-competing scheme—meaning all permanent residents aged 25–60 who are not government employees or pensioners can receive it—a woman aged above 25 pursuing a PG degree from the SC/ST community can receive a total of ₹4,200 per month.

Tamil Nadu A household can net ₹2,000 monthly through a combination of Kalaignar Magalir Urimai Thogai (KMUT) and Pudhumai Penn Thittam. However, qualifying conditions are stringent:

• The woman must be above 21 and recognized as the head of the family on the ration card to receive the ₹1,000 under KMUT.
• To receive the other ₹1,000 under Pudhumai Penn Thittam, the claimant must have a girl or transgender child pursuing recognized higher education courses and must have studied in a Tamil-medium institution from Class VI to Class XII.

Assam A potential ₹3,750 monthly payout is possible via the Orunodoi Scheme and Mukhya Mantrir Nijut Moina Aasoni. However, this maximum is only receivable for 10 months in a year and is restricted to PG and B.Ed students. Under this arrangement, ₹2,500 is paid via the Mukhya Mantrir Nijut Moina Aasoni, which can be supplemented by ₹1,250 from the Orunodoi Scheme for those meeting its specific income criteria.

Kerala The Social Security Pension schemes provide a maximum of ₹1,600 per month. Despite being some of the earliest such schemes in the country, the qualifying conditions are described as "quite dismal," as beneficiaries must be widows, divorcees, or women never-married by age 50 with annual incomes below ₹1 lakh.

Voter Demographics Data from the last Assembly elections highlight the importance of the female vote:

• Kerala: Approximately 89% of constituencies have women accounting for half of the polled votes.
• Tamil Nadu: 66%.
• West Bengal: 61%.
• Assam: 48%.

Sourashis Banerjee Chennai

The elite degree problem

By Bhavna Pandey

HIGHER EDUCATION. Need for inclusive faculty. Private colleges fixated on elite degrees for faculty.

A quiet but consequential shift is underway in India’s private higher education sector. Increasingly, faculty recruitment advertisements and informal hiring preferences signal a clear hierarchy: PhDs from elite institutions — particularly the IITs and IIMs — are treated as gold standard credentials. While excellence should always be the goal of academic hiring, the growing tendency to privilege institutional pedigree over demonstrable scholarly merit raises urgent questions about fairness, policy coherence, and the long-term health of India’s doctoral ecosystem.

IIT/IIM doctorates are valuable and they benefit from strong research infrastructure, funding access, international networks, and structured doctoral training. In national rankings such as the NIRF, these institutions consistently dominate research and citation indicators — a reflection of concentrated investment rather than a monopoly on academic capability. The concern arises when such credentials become a de facto gatekeeping mechanism. According to the All India Survey on Higher Education (AISHE) 2021-22, India enrolls over 2 lakh PhD scholars, with more than 40,000 doctoral degrees awarded annually across central, state, deemed, and private universities. This expansion reflects a deliberate national strategy to build research capacity and academic manpower.

Regulatory frameworks — particularly the UGC’s PhD Regulations — mandate uniform standards in coursework, supervision, and evaluation. While quality variation exists, the regulatory intent is clear: doctoral legitimacy is not meant to be institution-exclusive. Yet hiring signals increasingly concentrate opportunity within a narrow band of institutional pedigree. This risks creating a symbolic hierarchy that equates brand recognition with scholarly merit. AISHE data show that private institutions constitute nearly two-thirds of all colleges. Many actively run doctoral programmes under regulatory approval, admitting scholars and awarding PhDs. Yet some of these institutions exhibit hiring preferences that implicitly devalue doctorates produced outside elite circles — occasionally including their own.

If an institution signals limited confidence in its doctoral training outcomes, it raises questions about internal quality assurance. Conversely, if regulatory standards are being met, graduates deserve evaluation based on scholarly output rather than institutional lineage. From a policy perspective, such hiring tendencies risk unintended consequences.

First, they exacerbate academic stratification. India already faces uneven access to research infrastructure. UNESCO’s higher education analysis has repeatedly noted that expanding doctoral education in developing systems requires inclusive employment pathways.

Second, pedigree-driven hiring distorts incentives within doctoral education. Scholars may prioritise institutional entry over research substance, weakening the culture of inquiry that doctoral training is meant to cultivate.

Third, inefficiencies emerge in talent utilisation. Undergraduate-focused colleges — where teaching quality, curriculum innovation, and mentorship are critical — may undervalue competencies that are not captured by institutional branding alone.

Globally, mature higher education systems increasingly balance institutional reputation with performance-based evaluation. Hiring committees examine peer-reviewed publications, teaching portfolios, interdisciplinary collaboration, and demonstrated academic leadership. Institutional origin provides context, but it does not define academic worth.

India’s private higher education sector is uniquely positioned to adopt a similar model. Transparent recruitment frameworks, multi-dimensional evaluation metrics, and peer-reviewed selection processes can elevate standards without reinforcing academic elitism.

The writer is an independent researcher.

Indian-flagged Jag Laadki docks at Mundra Port with UAE crude oil

Our Bureau Ahmedabad

SAFE PASSAGE. The tanker’s arrival comes amid heightened tensions in West Asia, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz.

The Indian-flagged crude oil tanker Jag Laadki arrived at Mundra Port, part of Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ), in Gujarat on Wednesday. It was carrying approximately 80,886 tonnes of crude oil sourced from the UAE.

ENERGY SECURITY The tanker’s arrival comes amid heightened tensions in West Asia, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. The shipment is part of efforts to sustain operations and safeguard energy security despite regional instability.

The vessel, which was loaded at Fu— [text cut off], highlights the port’s ability to handle largescale crude shipments. In the past two days, two [text cut off].

India holds firm on food stockholding as WTO draft sidesteps key issues

IN CRITICAL PHASE. Discussions on agriculture may get tricky at Yaounde Ministerial meet this month

Amiti Sen New Delhi

India will continue to push for prioritising a long-pending permanent solution on public stockholding (PSH) at the upcoming WTO Ministerial Conference in Yaounde, Cameroon, later this month as it remains critical for safeguarding its MSP-based food security programmes from potential legal challenges in the future, sources said.

The draft Ministerial text on agriculture, circulated on March 16 during a special session of the WTO’s agriculture committee, stops short of explicitly addressing PSH or the Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM), both key demands of India and several developing countries. Instead, it makes a broad reference to past Ministerial decisions without spelling out a clear path forward on these issues.

US’ APPROACH The draft also reflects a partial accommodation of the US push for a “new approach” to agriculture negotiations, seen by many developing members as an attempt to dilute existing mandates. While it includes this as one of the possible ways forward, it simultaneously underscores continuity by noting that both “existing and future contributions” of members will shape the negotiations.

“... The negotiations shall continue on the basis of Members’ existing and future contributions, including proposals on possible new approaches to advance the negotiations,” the draft states. Sources said India has taken up the issue of the absence of a direct mention of PSH and SSM in the draft Ministerial declaration and underlined its importance for developing countries and the fact that it has been pending for almost a decade.

“The main lacuna in the draft is the failure to specifically mention and reaffirm the mandated issues where work is already advanced, such as PSH, SSM, cotton and domestic support. While an MC14 declaration must reflect and consolidate the positions of all members, it must also recognise the interests of the majority of members,” said Ranja Sengupta from the Third World Network.

At the WTO, PSH is treated as trade-distorting support and capped at 10 per cent of the value of production (for developing countries), calculated using outdated 1980s reference prices. This makes countries like India appear to breach limits (as in rice) even when support is modest in real terms.

A temporary “peace clause” agreed at the 2013 Bali Ministerial protects developing countries from legal action if conditions are met, but these are onerous and leave them exposed to uncertainty and potential disputes, underscoring the need for the permanent solution promised at Bali.

CORE CONCERN With the US now insisting on a new approach for agricultural negotiations at the WTO, India and other developing countries have to guard against getting the pending issues brushed under the carpet.

“India had so far been insisting that pending issues such as the PSH, the SSM and cotton should be addressed before new issues are brought into the mandate for discussion. It needs to keep up the pressure on developed countries, including the US, to ensure that the past mandate remain relevant,” another expert pointed out.

More ministries may gain content takedown powers

The government is considering authorising some more Ministries, including Defence, External Affairs and Home Affairs, to issue content takedown orders to social media platforms, sources said on Wednesday. Inter-ministerial discussions are currently underway, government sources said, but they did not provide a timeline for when this may be implemented.

CURBING MENACE At present, the Ministry of Electronics and IT (Meity) is the nodal Ministry for takedowns and content blocking orders. Discussions are on with the Ministries of Defence, External Affairs and Home Affairs, government sources said.

Section 69A of the IT Act, 2000, empowers the Centre to block public access to online content, websites, apps or social media posts in the interest of national security, sovereignty and public order.

In February, the Centre tightened rules for social media platforms such as YouTube and X, mandating the takedown of unlawful content within three hours and requiring clear labelling of all AI-generated content. The new rules came in response to the growing misuse of AI to create and circulate deceptive and obscene content on social media platforms.

Press Trust of India New Delhi

StanChart reviews offers from Federal Bank, Kotak to buy credit card-only customers

Standard Chartered is reviewing offers from Kotak Mahindra Bank and Federal Bank to acquire the British lender’s up to 6 lakh customers in India who only have credit card accounts, two sources with knowledge of the matter said.

CORE STRATEGY The potential divestment is part of StanChart’s strategy to get rid of “non-core accounts” and focus on high-yield segments to boost its profitability. Last year, Standard Chartered sold its India personal loan business, which at the time was valued at $488 million, to Kotak Mahindra Bank.

Kotak and Federal have submitted final offers for acquiring StanChart’s India portfolio of credit card-only customers, who have no other relationship with the bank and are considered non-core to its business, said the two sources, who declined to be identified as the discussions are private.

ONGOING REVIEW Standard Chartered did not respond to requests for comment. “StanChart is currently reviewing both of these offers and it is expected to take some time,” one of the sources said, adding that the potential sale does not indicate that the bank is completely exiting the credit card business.

Reuters Mumbai

All eyes on Dhurandhar 2, with strong advance bookings

Meenakshi Verma Ambwani New Delhi

All eyes are on Dhurandhar 2: The Revenge, the sequel to the blockbuster hit Dhurandhar, which has been witnessing strong advance booking trends. Dhurandhar, which was released in 2025, had emerged as the highest-grossing Hindi film. The spy action thriller, which will see its full theatrical release on Thursday, however, faced some glitches during the much-anticipated select paid preview shows on Wednesday. Trade analysts and the multiplex industry, however, noted that with a strong buzz, the movie is set to create new box office records.

An official statement issued by Jio Studios and B62 Studios on Wednesday stated, “Most of our Hindi shows across India are running as scheduled from 5 pm onwards. All of our Tamil and Telugu shows will [be cancelled due to non-delivery of content]. If the dubbed version you have tickets for is not currently playing at your cinema, you will have an option for refund or to watch the Hindi version with subtitles instead.”

BOX OFFICE TSUNAMI Meanwhile, as per estimates by trade site Sacnilk, the film’s worldwide pre-sales for the opening weekend had already crossed the ₹200 crore mark, which includes over ₹125 crore gross in India. Trade analyst Taran Adarsh stated on X that the movie’s sequel will be a “box office tsunami” with expectations that it will “demolish existing records”.

Gautam Dutta, Chief Executive Officer, Growth and Revenue, PVR INOX Ltd, told businessline, “By Wednesday afternoon, we have already seen advance booking of nearly 18.5 lakh tickets for the opening weekend." Given the strong admissions seen for the first Dhurandhar, which had advance bookings of 1.2 million tickets, expectations are high. He added that the movie is set for a massive pan-India release and may garner net box office collection of ₹100 crore on the first day. He further noted that the franchise may emerge as the highest-grossing film franchise in India in terms of net collections at the domestic box office.

FILLING FASTER Bhuvanesh Mendiratta, MD, Miraj Entertainment Ltd, added, “Advance bookings for Dhurandhar: The Revenge are clearly ahead of the first film at a similar stage. In many centres, we are already seeing 60-70 per cent occupancy for the opening weekend, with evening shows filling faster.”

BIG OPENING. Ranveer Singh in a scene from the film.

Newspaper Summary 170326

 

Wholesale inflation jumps to 2.13% in Feb, driven by costlier non-food items

Our Bureau New Delhi

With a rise in non-vegetable food prices, inflation based on the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) rose to 2.13 per cent in February, the Industry Ministry reported on Monday. This is the fourth successive month of rise. Wholesale inflation was 1.81 per cent in January.

“Positive rate of inflation in February is primarily due to an increase in prices of other manufacturing, manufacture of basic metals, non-food articles, food articles and textiles, etc.,” the Ministry said in a statement. According to WPI data, inflation in food articles was 2.19 per cent in February, compared to 1.55 per cent in the previous month.

VEGETABLES EASE

In vegetables, inflation eased to 4.73 per cent in February against 6.78 per cent in January. However, pulses, potato and egg, meat and fish saw an uptick in inflation in February over the previous month.

In the case of manufactured products, WPI inflation inched up to 2.92 per cent in February, from 2.86 per cent in the preceding month. Non-food articles category inflation spiked to 8.8 per cent in February, from 7.58 per cent in January. Negative inflation, or deflation, continued in the fuel and power basket, at 3.78 per cent in February, vis-a-vis 4.01 per cent in January. It may be noted that the RBI mainly tracks retail inflation for deciding on benchmark interest rates.

HIGHER ENERGY PRICES

According to Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge, the February inflation data do not yet reflect the potential impact of the ongoing conflict in West Asia, which has resulted in higher energy prices. Looking ahead, elevated energy prices are likely to exert upward pressure on WPI inflation as input costs rise.

The impact of elevated energy prices is expected to be more pronounced on WPI compared with CPI, given the higher weight of petroleum, natural gas and mineral oil in the WPI basket (10.4 per cent) relative to the CPI basket (4.8 per cent).

EL NINO RISK

In addition to energy price risks, the increased probability of an El Nino weather event in FY27 could adversely affect food inflation. Considering these risks, Sinha noted that it is vital to monitor geopolitical developments in West Asia and weather-related developments.

For FY26, WPI inflation is expected to average 0.6 per cent. Under a baseline scenario with Brent crude prices averaging between $60

Comfortable on crude, gas, petrol, diesel; still tight on LPG: Govt

Rishi Ranjan Kala New Delhi

The government on Monday said the country’s crude oil, petrol and diesel stocks remain “comfortable”, with uninterrupted natural gas supply even as the LPG situation remains “tight.” Sujata Sharma, Joint Secretary, Petroleum Ministry, said crude oil supplies remain “adequate” and refineries are operating at high capacity, with petrol pumps functioning normally and no dry-outs reported.

Natural gas supply is also uninterrupted, with 100 per cent availability of compressed natural gas (CNG) and piped natural gas (PNG). Commercial LPG users are being encouraged to shift to PNG where available, with city gas distribution (CGD) companies offering incentives and fast-tracking new connections, she said.

LPG SUPPLY TIGHT

“While the LPG situation remains tight, consumers continue to receive supplies with no distributor-level dry-outs reported. About 90 per cent of LPG bookings are now made online, and delivery authentication code usage has risen to 72 per cent,” Sharma said. The States have intensified action against hoarding and black marketing. Consumers with both PNG and LPG connections have been advised to surrender LPG connections and avoid panic booking.

India’s average daily LPG production since March 5 has increased by 36 per cent. From about 37,355 tonnes per day in January 2026, the output has risen to around 50,803 tonnes.

SHIPS IN TRANSIT

Rakesh Kumar Sinha, Special Secretary, Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways, said 22 Indian-flagged vessels with 611 seafarers remain west of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf region. These include six VLGCs, one LNG carrier, four very large crude carriers, one chemicals and products vessel, three container ships, two bulk carriers and one dredger. One vessel is in ballast (without cargo), while three are in dry dock for maintenance.

Indian-flag vessel Jag Laadki, carrying about 80,800 tonnes of Murban crude oil, sailed from the United Arab Emirates on March 14 and is safely en route to Mundra Port. Of the two Indian-flag LPG carriers that crossed the Strait of Hormuz on March 14 carrying about 92,712 tonnes of LPG, Shivalik has reached Mundra Port and completed documentation for priority discharge, while Nanda Devi is expected to arrive early on Tuesday.

IndiGo takes the lead in pilot count, SpiceJet tops pilot-to-aircraft ratio

Yashaswani Chauhan New Delhi

As airlines seek temporary relief from flight duty time limitation (FDTL) norms amid longer international flight durations, data on pilot strength, pilot-to-aircraft ratio and passenger service indicators point to widening operational pressures across the aviation sector. According to a response to an unstarred question in the Lok Sabha, among Indian carriers, IndiGo has the largest pilot base at 5,200, with a pilot-to-aircraft ratio of 7.6. Air India follows with 3,123 pilots and a ratio of 9.1. Air India Express employs 1,820 (ratio 8.8), while Akasa Air has 761 pilots with a ratio of 9.33. SpiceJet operates with 375 pilots, but has the highest pilot-to-aircraft ratio at 9.4. Alliance Air, with 115 pilots, has the lowest ratio at 6.

KEY INDICATOR

The pilot-to-aircraft ratio is a key indicator of scheduling flexibility. Higher ratios typically provide airlines greater buffer to manage disruptions, crew rest requirements and roster adjustments. Carriers operating with lower ratios may face tighter operational margins during unforeseen events such as diversions or airspace closures.

To supplement domestic capacity, some airlines have hired foreign pilots. Air India Express leads with 48 foreign pilots, followed by IndiGo with 29 and Alliance Air with 15. Cancellation data show diverging trends across carriers. IndiGo improved its cancellation rate from 0.78 per cent in 2024 to 0.48 per cent in 2025. Akasa Air also saw improvement, with cancellations declining from 0.31 per cent to 0.19 per cent. In contrast, the Air India group’s cancellation rate rose from 0.62 per cent in 2024 to 0.71 per cent in 2025. SpiceJet recorded the highest cancellation rates among major carriers, increasing from 1.91 per cent to 1.97 per cent.

BAGGAGE COMPLAINTS

Passenger service indicators show a sharp increase in baggage-related complaints in 2025. Damaged baggage cases rose from 224 in 2024 to 416 in 2025. Missing or stolen baggage incidents more than doubled from 185 to 433 during the same period. Data for delayed baggage were not maintained separately until 2025, when 76 cases were recorded. In 2026 (till February 28), 153 damaged baggage cases, 69 delayed baggage complaints and 173 missing or stolen baggage cases have already been reported.

The rise in baggage complaints, along with mixed trends in flight cancellations, highlights the growing operational strain on airlines as they expand and navigate external disruptions. As carriers add aircraft and seek temporary regulatory flexibility, ensuring adequate crew strength and consistent service standards will be critical to maintaining passenger trust.

After funding slowdown, edtech sector heads for consolidation

Jyoti Banthia Bengaluru

India’s edtech sector may be entering a fresh consolidation phase as large platforms seek scale and sustainable growth following the post-pandemic funding slowdown, according to industry executives and investors.

BROADER SHIFT

This trend is highlighted by upGrad, founded by Ronnie Screwvala, signing a term sheet to acquire rival Unacademy in a 100 per cent share-swap transaction. This move could become one of the largest consolidations in India's online education space in recent years.

According to data from PitchBook and Tracxn, Unacademy has raised approximately $854.3 million across 13 funding rounds—backed by investors like SoftBank, Tiger Global Management, and General Atlantic—while upGrad has raised $329 million across eight rounds. For upGrad, the acquisition would significantly expand its reach beyond higher education and professional upskilling into the K-12 and test-preparation segments, where Unacademy holds a massive audience.

“A lot of capital flowed into edtech during the Covid years, but in many cases the sector struggled to demonstrate durable learning outcomes,” noted Sunitha Viswanathan, partner at Kae Capital. Consequently, investors have become significantly more cautious in the post-Covid era.

PROFITABILITY PUSH

Investors suggest the deal reflects a sector-wide pivot toward profitability and scale after years of aggressive, venture-capital-fuelled expansion. Ujwal Sutaria, Founder and General Partner at TDV Partners, described upGrad’s move as a bid to build a “cradle-to-career” platform. By absorbing Unacademy's audience, upGrad creates a pipeline where learners can enter the ecosystem early and remain within it throughout their professional lives.

DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIOS

The acquisition could also strengthen upGrad’s position ahead of a potential public listing in the coming years as platforms look to build stronger revenue streams and diversified portfolios. Sutaria noted a growing “last man standing” dynamic, where players with stronger balance sheets can acquire distressed assets at attractive valuations to gain scale faster than organic growth allows.

Despite these moves, caution remains. Viswanathan warned that investors became wary when “tech” began to take precedence over “education” and argued that future success requires keeping the learner at the center of technological interventions.

Funding in the sector has already plummeted from its 2021 peak, with venture capital firms now focusing on fewer, larger platforms with clear paths to profitability. If finalized, the upGrad–Unacademy deal could signal a broader wave of consolidation as the industry attempts to win back investor confidence through a combination of scale, technology, and improved outcomes.

Why a transition to natural farming is a necessity

PVS Suryakumar

Human civilisation rests on a simple foundation: the ability to grow healthy and nutritious food reliably. That foundation is now under growing strain. A disruption in energy or fertilizer markets can ripple through food systems faster than policy can respond. Modern agriculture is tightly linked to fossil fuels, global supply chains and ecological services — and when these links weaken, livelihoods and health suffer first.

FUEL TO FORK

The Fuel to Fork analysis by IPES-Food (2024/25) estimates that food systems consume nearly 40 per cent of petrochemicals and about 15 per cent of fossil fuels globally, tying every plate to volatile energy markets. The world is beginning to acknowledge this reality and must now find a way forward.

The system’s industrial dependence compounds the risk. Analyses by Vaclav Smil and FAO suggest that about 40 per cent of global dietary protein intake depends on synthetic nitrogen fertilizer made via the energy-intensive Haber-Bosch process. When energy tightens, fertilizer costs rise — and food prices follow. Current urea prices are already elevated (around $585/tonne), with analysts warning of $650-700/tonne under extended stress. Trade concentration amplifies this; according to Kpler’s trade data (2024), over two-thirds of India’s ammonia and sulphur imports originate in the Gulf region, meaning regional shocks quickly tighten global availability.

CLIMATE THREATS

The scientific picture is also plain. The IPCC warns that intensifying heat and shifting rainfall are already shortening growing windows. In India this is tangible: recent temperature spikes have lowered wheat yields in affected districts, and higher night-time temperatures reduce rice grain filling — material threats where wheat and rice anchor food security.

Given these multiple uncertainties, India’s cropping patterns will need gradual diversification. Pulses, oilseeds and millets offer nutritional and ecological advantages, though consumer acceptance, processing ecosystems and agronomic adaptation will determine how far and how fast such shifts occur.

ECOLOGICAL ALARM

Ecological and health signals deepen the alarm. Global assessments (IPCC-AR6, IPBES, FAO) show biodiversity loss, pollinator declines and soil degradation are eroding ecological services and destabilising yields. Public-health reviews (WHO) are increasingly concerned about chemical exposures and rising non-communicable diseases. These are not separate problems: degraded soils and chemical-laden foods undermine both production and public health.

A sensible policy is neither one of panic, nor prohibition. A disciplined and financed transition — phased across crops, regions and over time — can reduce dependency while protecting farmers’ welfare.

FOR A CREDIBLE TRANSITION

This has to be practical and subtle.

• First, improve nutrient-use efficiency and replace part of the input mix with biological alternatives where they are ready to deploy.
• Second, fund public agricultural research on soil health, microbial partnerships and cropping systems that integrate trees, livestock and legumes, and back it with extension.
• Third, redesign subsidies and procurement to reward soil health, improved soil carbon, biodiversity, and ecosystem services.
• Finally, build markets and supply chains that pay for the public goods produced by ecological agriculture, so farmers who make the transition are not left isolated and unpaid for their stewardship.

India’s embrace of natural farming can anchor this agenda and can be strategically phased temporally and spatially. Natural farming — with R&D, extension, assured markets and transition finance — can organically scale without forcing risky, abrupt change on farmers.

CONCLUSION

Gradually reducing chemical dependence in agriculture will make our food systems more resilient and healthier for both people and nature. We cannot easily control conflicts, wars or energy markets, but we can definitely redesign how we grow food. If institutional incentives, research and markets align behind resilient, ecological farming, we will reduce fragility where it matters most — at the soil and at the plate.

The writer is former Deputy Managing Director, NABARD. Views are personal.

Nervous Republicans

Sridhar Krishnaswami

War by any other name is still war. And no amount of spin from either US President Donald Trump or any of his top advisors seems to be working. Republican members of Congress in both the House of Representatives and Senate are getting jittery as to how the war in the Middle East, that started on February 28 with Israel and the US dropping missiles and bombs on Iran, is going to end.

So far there have been little indication from the administration apart from a raft of rants of how things are going to get worse for Tehran. And Iran has met all this with indignation and defiance.

According to a Quinnipiac University national poll taken a week after the start of operations, a majority of voters are opposed to the strikes with higher numbers against induction of ground troops into Iran and a significant 75 per cent believing that the American military action against Tehran will lead to a terrorist attack on the US. If 53 per cent of those polled oppose the military action, only 40 per cent support it; and this is along partisan lines with Republican support at 85 per cent and Democratic opposition close to 90 per cent.

VOTER SENTIMENT

But the significant message to the Grand Old Party is that 60 per cent of Independents are opposed to Washington’s military attack. As the polling analyst for the University, Tim Malloy, put it, “Voters are unenthusiastic about the air attack on Iran and there is overwhelming opposition to putting American troops on Iranian soil to fight a ground war”.

Iran has faced the brunt of the damage including casualties, including the outrageous hit on a girls school resulting in the death of an estimated 100, now being fobbed off on “old” intelligence. But Republican law makers are nervously watching how the administration responds to hunting down some 400-odd kg of Uranium stockpile said to be inside Iran.

Apart from fresh clamour for getting Congressional approval to put boots on the ground, law makers still have memories of Iraq and the hunt for Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction with inspectors coming back empty handed. In the case of the so-called Iranian stockpile, few will be nursing the illusion that the operation will be a quick entry-exit scenario.

OIL WORRIES

At this time, Republican anxiety does not lie in the potential return of body bags. It is in the implication of an expanding conflict in the Middle East that has already started taking its toll on oil prices.

The restrictions imposed for the Strait of Hormuz aside, Iran is said to have mined the waters, while also resorting to occasional hits on tankers braving the hostile environment. All this have led to a spurt in oil prices that is being reflected in the pumps in the US. Trump’s decision to suspend sanctions against Russian oil and the International Energy Association’s decision to release 400 million barrels as an emergency measure have hardly calmed markets where the price of crude still tops $100.

POLITICAL FALLOUT

Even as it is, record numbers of Republicans are leaving the House of Representatives and not seeking re-election in November. And Republicans incumbents in the House and Senate are facing strong challenges at the primaries that are in full swing, putting pressure on funds that would normally be spent fighting Democrats at showdown time.

The party leadership is facing the music not only at the national level, but at the state level too. The pressure has intensified for the party, especially in the red-states where the GOP has taken hits recently, to maintain their super-majorities for legislations to pass in the face of a veto by the Governors.

The political problem is rather acute for the GOP leadership that does not seem to be satisfied with the numbers of missiles and bombs that Iran faces daily or in the number of sorties flown by jet fighters.

The writer is a senior journalist who has reported from Washington DC on North America and UN.

Oil shock’s impact on India’s BoP

CP Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh

Uncertainty and shortages have roiled India’s oil markets following the unwarranted bombings of Iranian civilian and military targets launched by the United States and Israel and Iran’s predictable response to that unprovoked attack. With India heavily reliant on oil imports and anywhere between 30 and 40 per cent of its crude imports and 80-90 per cent of its liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) imports sourced from and transiting through the Gulf region, the impact the war is having on the physical supply of oil and LPG and the prices of those supplies is a major shock to the economy.

GLOBAL OIL MARKETS

Globally, the war has shaken the world’s oil markets for multiple reasons:

• First, the bombing of Iran threatens to shut down its oil production facilities for quite some time, which influences calculations of long-run supply and impacts price trends.
• Second, Iran’s response includes shutting off the Strait of Hormuz, which services between a fifth and a third of world gas and oil demand, leading to an immediate impact on global supply.
• Third, large trading firms that dominate global physical trade in oil act as speculators for profit, leading to an amplified impact on oil prices far beyond what is warranted by supply shortfalls.
• Finally, the dominance of speculators means that efforts to redress imbalances, such as the release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves by IEA members, often signal that the crisis is serious and intensify speculative activity, pushing prices way beyond the $100 barrier.

IMPACT ON INDIA

The impacts transmit to the Indian economy through multiple routes. Given India’s import dependence, there is already talk of shortages affecting households, truckers, and farmers. The rise in oil prices will trigger “imported” inflation due to both the rise in the dollar price of oil and the resulting depreciation of the rupee.

The current account of India’s balance of payments (BoP) will be hit by falling remittance inflows and a widening trade deficit. Since the end of the Covid pandemic, India’s aggregate imports have risen faster than its oil imports due to rising non-oil imports like gold. A sharp rise in the oil import bill will add to the vulnerability resulting from that longer-term tendency.

TRADE BALANCE IMPACT

In the past, India’s excess refinery capacity mitigated the impact by exporting refined products manufactured with imported crude. Given the value addition through refining, export revenues from these products were often larger than the value of the related oil imports.

However, given the current loss of physical access to crude imports, the Indian government may retain available supplies for domestic consumption, adversely affecting the export of refined products from private facilities. This would mean the influence of the widening import bill on the oil trade balance would be significantly higher, leading to a larger deterioration in the balance of payments.

CONCLUSION

Much of the post-pandemic deterioration in India's trade balance was previously due to the non-oil trade balance, with oil contributing only marginally. That is expected to change now. The fact that the oil crisis is resulting in both a physical shortage of supply and a spike in prices will amplify its adverse effects on India’s balance of payments.

Spring spectacle: Asia’s largest tulip garden opens in Srinagar with over 1.8 m blooms

Gulzar Bhat Srinagar

“Wande tzale, sheen gali, beyi yi bahaar” (winter will depart, the snow will melt and spring will arrive again), Chief Minister Omar Abdullah quoted the Kashmiri proverb signifying the arrival of better times after a challenging period. He was inaugurating Asia’s largest tulip garden on Monday.

The Indira Gandhi Memorial Tulip Garden is ablaze in a riot of colours, heralding the arrival of spring, featuring more than 1.8 million tulips of over 70 varieties nestled at the foot-hills.

A NEW BEGINNING

“We hope this spring season brings a new beginning for Jammu and Kashmir. They have gone through a difficult time, but just as seasons change, the circumstances change too,” Abdullah said.

The administration is focusing on developing tulip bulbs locally and exploring ways to extend the blooming season using hot houses to artificially control flowering and supply flowers to markets. He added that SKUAST and the Floriculture Department had taken responsibility for propagating tulip bulbs locally to reduce the foreign exchange spent on importing bulbs from the Netherlands.

PETAL PARADISE

“We spend significant foreign exchange on importing tulip bulbs from the Netherlands, and efforts are being made to propagate them here to cut those costs,” Abdullah said.

The garden, spread across about 74 acres, was set up in 2007 by former Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad with the aim of promoting tourism. In 2014, the World Tulip Summit Society ranked it as...