Famous quotes

"Happiness can be defined, in part at least, as the fruit of the desire and ability to sacrifice what we want now for what we want eventually" - Stephen Covey

Wednesday, November 12, 2025

SAWG : Admissions Review

 The Executive Summary details that UC San Diego experienced a steep decline in the academic preparation of its entering first-year students between 2020 and 2025, affecting mathematics most severely, but also writing and language skills. This decline is highlighted by the finding that the number of students whose math skills fall below middle-school level increased nearly thirtyfold during this five-year period, representing approximately one in eight members of the entering cohort.

In the larger context of the UC San Diego Admissions Review: Final Report (2025), this preparation decline serves as the primary crisis motivating the Senate-Administration Working Group on Admissions (SAWG) investigation and its resulting recommendations. The summary attributes this deterioration to coinciding factors including the COVID-19 pandemic, the elimination of standardized testing, grade inflation, and the expansion of admissions from under-resourced high schools (LCFF+). The SAWG concludes that this poses serious challenges to student success and the university’s instructional mission.

The body of the report then elaborates on these factors and proposes remedies, which are summarized in the Executive Summary's Key Recommendations. These recommendations include developing the Math Index to predict the likelihood of placement into remedial math, reasserting faculty oversight through the Committee on Admissions, and advocating for a systemwide reexamination of standardized testing.


The sources define the Decline Severity through quantifiable, alarming statistics primarily related to mathematics preparation, which the Executive Summary: Preparation Decline (2020-2025) identifies as the primary crisis.

Severity Metrics in Mathematics: The most severe indicator of the decline is the increase in the number of students whose math skills fall below middle-school level. Between 2020 and 2025, this population experienced a nearly thirtyfold increase. This demographic grew to constitute roughly one in eight members of the entering cohort. Specifically, this represented over 900 students in the combined remedial courses (Math 2 and Math 3B) in Fall 2024, amounting to an alarming 12.5% of the incoming first-year class, compared to under 1% before 2021.

Severity Compared to Peers: The severity of this decline at UC San Diego is considered significantly worse than at peer institutions. A survey conducted among UC Math Chairs revealed that other campuses observed an increase in underprepared students by a factor of only two or three over the same five-year period, while UC San Diego’s increase was drastically higher.

Consequences of the Decline: The preparation decline is severe not only in numbers but also in the depth of the skills gap, with instructors observing deficits that extend back to middle and even elementary school math (grades 1-8). This lack of foundational knowledge results in severe downstream academic consequences, as reflected in high D, F, or Withdraw (DFW) rates for these students in college calculus sequences (e.g., a 51.8% DFW rate in Math 20C). Furthermore, data indicates that few, if any students who place into the lowest remedial course (Math 2) have successfully completed an engineering degree.

Context within the Executive Summary: The Executive Summary concludes that this trend of students being "increasingly unprepared for the quantitative and analytical rigor" expected at UC San Diego poses serious challenges to student success and the university’s instructional mission. The recognition of this severe decline was the impetus for the entire Senate-Administration Working Group on Admissions (SAWG) investigation, which focused most of its time and effort on addressing this issue. The summary attributes this deterioration to the COVID-19 pandemic, the elimination of standardized testing, and the expansion of admissions from under-resourced high schools.


The Executive Summary identifies four major coinciding trends responsible for the steep decline in student preparation: the COVID-19 pandemic and its educational effects, the elimination of standardized testing, grade inflation, and the expansion of admissions from under-resourced high schools (LCFF+). The summary concludes that the combination of these factors produced an incoming class increasingly unprepared for the quantitative and analytical rigor expected at UC San Diego.

General Contributing Factors (Systemwide)

  1. The COVID-19 Pandemic: Beginning in the spring of 2020, the pandemic forced K-12 and higher education online, resulting in a well-documented decline in student preparedness. State assessment data (CAASPP) revealed drops in both language and math achievement levels in 2022 that have not yet fully recovered. Instructors noted that the deficit created during remote learning often affected critical developmental periods for math skills, such as the 6th grade. The pandemic also exacerbated existing inequalities, negatively affecting under-resourced schools in poor areas the most.

  2. The Elimination of Standardized Testing: In 2020, the UC Board of Regents eliminated the SAT and ACT from admissions consideration starting with the 2021 cohort, against the advice of the Academic Senate’s Standardized Testing Task Force (STTF). This decision aimed to broaden the applicant pool. However, the elimination resulted in increased reliance on high school grades, despite the STTF already noting a worrisome trend of grade inflation before 2020.

  3. Grade Inflation and Transcript Reliability: The disruption caused by COVID-19 likely accelerated grade inflation and lowered standards in California high schools, making the quality of information received from school transcripts less reliable as a gauge of student success. Evidence suggests that high school math curriculum and grades have become poor predictors of actual readiness:

    • In Fall 2024, 94% of severely underprepared students (those needing Math 2/3B) had taken math courses beyond the minimum high school requirement, with 42% completing Calculus or Precalculus, indicating a significant mismatch between coursework and actual skill level.
    • The difference in average high school math GPA between students needing preparatory courses and those ready for college-level calculus was very small—often less than one-tenth of a grade point. The correlation between average math grade and placement result is only around 0.25. In 2024, over 25% of students in Math 2 had a math grade average of 4.0.

UC San Diego Specific Factor (Excessive Increase)

The sources detail that UC San Diego’s sharp increase in underprepared students, compared to its peers, is linked to its excessive expansion of admissions from LCFF+ high schools.

  • LCFF+ Enrollment Surge: Beginning in 2022, UC San Diego enrolled the largest number of students from LCFF+ schools across the entire UC system for three consecutive years (2022–2024). More than a third of enrolled first-year students at UC San Diego during 2022–2024 were admitted from LCFF+ schools.
  • Widening Preparation Gap: This surge occurred at a challenging time because the pandemic produced greater learning losses in under-resourced schools (LCFF+), and their academic recovery has been slower.
  • Disproportionate Impact: When UC San Diego doubled its LCFF+ enrollees in 2022-2023, the number of students placed into the lowest remedial course (Math 2) nearly doubled, and 80% of those additional students came from LCFF+ schools. This demonstrated that the UC San Diego-specific policy of dramatically increasing LCFF+ enrollment coincided precisely with the steepest decline in academic preparation.

The Senate-Administration Working Group on Admissions (SAWG) was primarily charged with addressing this insufficient mathematics preparation, concluding that regardless of the underlying causes, the problem is serious and demands an immediate institutional response.

The steep decline in academic preparation at UC San Diego, particularly in mathematics and also in writing/language skills, which is the core subject of the Executive Summary: Preparation Decline (2020-2025), is concluded by the Senate-Administration Working Group on Admissions (SAWG) to pose serious challenges both to student success and to the university’s instructional mission.

Challenges to Student Success

The challenge to student success is primarily driven by the admission of large numbers of underprepared students, which risks harming those students by setting them up for failure.

  1. High Failure Rates in College Courses: Students placed into the lowest remedial math course, Math 2, experience significantly high D, F, or Withdraw (DFW) rates in their subsequent required college-level math sequences.
    • In the Math 10 series, DFW rates for Math 2 students are 24.1% in 10A, 30.3% in 10B, and 40.7% in 10C.
    • The rates are even more problematic in the Math 20 series (for STEM majors), with 31.2% DFW in Math 20B and over half (51.8%) DFW in Math 20C.
  2. Impediment to Degree Completion: For math-intensive majors like Engineering, students who do not complete their math requirements are unable to make progress toward their degrees. Data shows that few, if any, students who placed into Math 2 have successfully completed an engineering degree.
  3. Lower Retention and Longer Time-to-Degree: Students enrolled in math-intensive majors who are unable to place into the required calculus sequence in a timely manner (e.g., after the first year) are at risk of not succeeding in their major and exhibit lower retention rates and longer times to degree.
  4. Skills Gaps are Profound: The severity of the preparation deficits, especially in math, goes back much further than high school topics, extending to middle and even elementary school math (grades 1–8). Students placed into Math 2 struggle with fundamental concepts like fractions, factoring, and notation, and lack "logical thinking" necessary for problem-solving.

Challenges to the Instructional Mission

The admission trend strains the university’s instructional mission by straining limited instructional resources and demanding excessive remedial education.

  1. Increased Burden on Faculty and Resources: The preparation decline puts significant strain on faculty who work to maintain rigorous instructional standards. The Math Department was caught by surprise by the rapid growth in underprepared students beginning in Fall 2022 and had to scramble to find additional instructors for Fall 2023.
  2. Unprecedented Remediation Needs: UC San Diego is uniquely burdened, being the only UC campus to offer a course equivalent to Math 2, which remediates elementary and middle school math. Remedial efforts must now cover gaps that are often beyond reach.
  3. Maintaining Rigor vs. Support: The university's capacity to deliver remedial education responsibly and effectively is not limitless. The university must find a balance, recognizing that while it is committed to social mobility, it "can only help so many students". The problem is considered so serious that the SAWG devoted most of its time and effort to addressing this insufficient mathematics preparation.

The sources place Language and Literacy Preparation as a key component of the overall "Preparation Problems Identified" at UC San Diego, noting a steep decline in academic preparation that affects not only mathematics but also writing and language skills. The Senate-Administration Working Group on Admissions (SAWG) was specifically charged with assessing the writing preparation of admitted students.

Severity and Interrelation of the Problem

While the decline in mathematics was deemed the "most urgent concern", faculty reports indicate that students' language skills increasingly limit their ability to engage with longer and more complex texts.

The sources highlight a significant overlap between language and math deficits:

  • In 2024, two out of five students with severe deficiencies in math also required remedial writing instruction.
  • Conversely, one in four students with inadequate writing skills also needed additional math preparation.

Regarding the volume of underprepared writing students, a similarly large share of students must take additional writing courses to reach the level expected of high school graduates, though this figure has not varied much over the 2020–2025 time span, unlike the dramatic growth seen in remedial math. However, the percentage of domestic first-year students placed into Analytical Writing Courses (ELWR-fulfilling courses) did increase slightly from 2022 to 2024, returning to 2018 levels of about 19%, suggesting an impact from recent national literacy trends.

Assessment Mechanisms and Future Study

Students must fulfill the UC Entry Level Writing (ELWR) requirement, which determines if they need to be placed into an appropriate writing course. The system-wide Analytical Writing Placement Exam (AWPE) was discontinued in 2023. UC San Diego developed a local Writing Placement Process (WPP), a collaborative model that includes students’ self-assessment and faculty reading of written responses. This new WPP is significantly different from the prior AWPE.

Despite anecdotal concerns and evidence of national decline, the SAWG concluded that the complexities of student language preparation require a separate inquiry due to the need for more data. Factors contributing to changes in skills include the placement mechanism changes, the pandemic, and the rapid introduction of artificial intelligence tools.

Recommendations to Address Literacy

The report’s recommendations for addressing the writing problem include:

  1. Commissioning a dedicated campus study on writing and literacy preparedness, involving humanities and writing program faculty, library experts, and specialists in communication across disciplines.
  2. Developing or adopting a more predictive assessment of writing and language skills for use in admissions, which would move beyond GPA and course titles to evaluate readiness for college-level analytical and compositional work.
  3. Integrating improved literacy indicators, alongside the proposed Math Index, into the holistic review for majors requiring high analytical or quantitative skills.

The Holistic Review Process is central to the UC San Diego Admissions Review: Final Report (2025), as the Senate-Administration Working Group on Admissions (SAWG) was specifically charged with conducting a statistical analysis of the process itself. This process is divided into two distinct stages.

Stage 1: Creation of the Holistic Review Score (HRS)

In the first stage, professional and external readers score each first-year application based on a range of factors derived from BOARS guidance.

  • Scoring: Scores range from 1 (highest/best) to 5 (lowest/worst). Two readers review each file, and a third reader reconciles differences if the initial scores vary by more than one point.
  • Grade Correlation: The HRS is designed to reflect the entirety of a student’s achievements and promises. However, statistical analysis showed that the HRS has a very high correlation (about 0.8) with the student’s weighted High School GPA (HSGPA) in the local context.
  • Mitigating Grade Inflation: Although highly correlated with grades, readers are trained to see past grade inflation by comparing an applicant’s GPA against other applicants from the same high school.
  • Focus on General Potential: Readers utilize essays (PIQs) and activities lists to assess background, potential, and life experiences, which help differentiate among students who look academically similar. Importantly, readers are specifically trained not to take a student’s preparation into account differently based on their intended major.

Stage 2: The Shaping of the Class

The second stage, overseen by the Selection Committee (staff and leadership, excluding readers), uses the HRS to determine offers of admission that align with overall enrollment goals and limitations.

  • Flexibility and Major Consideration: As the applicant pool grew, the committee increasingly had to limit how often the HRS alone led to the decision, instead factoring in additional academic and non-academic factors, particularly the requested major.
  • Access and Equity: The committee strategically dips further into the applicant pool (beyond the highest scores) to expand access for students seeking majors the university wishes to grow or those from schools the university seeks to serve better.
  • Portfolio Impact: For Arts applicants, a departmental portfolio review is conducted on a parallel track. The portfolio score is only used to tip the decision one way or another if the applicant’s HRS falls within the middle ranges; a high or low HRS guarantees admission or rejection, respectively, regardless of artistic talent.
  • Major Mismatch: While holistic review ignores major-specific preparation during scoring, the Selection Committee may admit a student to the university but not into their first-choice major (resulting in an alternate major or undeclared status).

Recommendations for Strengthening the Holistic Review

Recognizing the lack of reliable predictive information post-standardized testing, the SAWG recommended strengthening the Holistic Review Process by integrating new predictive tools and enhancing faculty oversight:

  • Integration of Math Index: The SAWG recommends integrating the newly developed Math Index (a statistical predictor of remedial math placement) into the holistic review specifically for majors requiring high analytical or quantitative skills. The goal of this integration is to reduce enrollment in the lowest remedial math course (Math 2) to near zero.
  • Improved Literacy Assessment: The process must develop or adopt a more robust and predictive methodology to evaluate applicants’ writing and language skills, moving beyond GPA and course titles, for use in admissions.
  • Faculty Oversight: The Committee on Admissions (CoA) should play a more active leadership role, helping to define and update the process for assigning HRS and shaping the class, and receiving regular reports tracking correlations between HRS and post-enrollment outcomes (like math placement and graduation rates).

The UC San Diego Admissions Review: Final Report (2025), produced by the Senate-Administration Working Group on Admissions (SAWG), presents a comprehensive set of recommendations designed to address the steep decline in student academic preparation, particularly in mathematics, which poses serious challenges to student success and the university’s instructional mission.

These recommendations are divided into several key areas for future action:

1. Addressing the Math Preparation Crisis

Since math insufficient preparation was the SAWG's most urgent concern, the majority of recommendations focused on this area:

  • The Math Index: Develop and implement a Math Index—a statistical model that uses historical data on high school grades, coursework, and high school attended to optimally predict a student’s likelihood of placement into remedial math (Math 2/3B).
  • Target Goals: Use the Math Index in conjunction with the Holistic Review to ensure that the number of first-year students requiring Math 2/3B remains manageable, setting an initial target of no more than 300 first-year students in these courses by 2026–27, with an ultimate goal of reducing Math 2 enrollment to near zero.
  • Holistic Implementation: Implement a "running tally" system during the selection process to track the expected number of remedial math enrollees, aligning this predictive tool with the holistic admissions approach.
  • Early Remediation: Institute a policy requiring incoming students who need math for their major to establish math proficiency (usually via the Math Placement Exam) by June 1 of the summer before enrollment, enabling timely registration for summer remedial coursework.
  • Policy Adjustments: Reassess math requirements by major (e.g., distinguishing between B.A. and B.S. degrees) and bring UC San Diego’s enrollment levels from under-resourced (LCFF+) high schools back into alignment with those of similarly selective UC campuses.
  • High School Feedback: Establish feedback mechanisms with high schools that demonstrate persistent mismatches between high student grades and low placement results to address issues of curriculum quality and grade inflation.

2. Improving Writing and Literacy Assessment

Recognizing preparation deficits in writing and language skills, the SAWG recommended two actions requiring further study:

  • Campus Study: Commission a dedicated campus study on writing and literacy preparedness involving faculty expertise from humanities, writing programs, and the library, particularly given the challenges posed by new artificial intelligence tools.
  • Predictive Assessment: Develop or adopt a more predictive assessment of writing and language skills for use in admissions, which must move beyond simply relying on GPA and course titles to evaluate readiness for college-level analytical and compositional work.

3. Strengthening Faculty Oversight and Holistic Review

To maintain accountability and effective admissions practices, the SAWG recommended strengthening faculty involvement:

  • Active CoA Role: Reaffirm the Committee on Admissions (CoA) to assume a proactive leadership role in shaping and evaluating admissions policies, including overseeing the implementation and annual recalibration of the Math Index.
  • Integration: Integrate the Math Index and any new literacy indicators into the holistic review process for majors requiring high analytical or quantitative skills.
  • Transparency: Improve transparency regarding the use of Arts portfolios by sharing outcomes information with faculty reviewers in the respective departments.

4. Systemwide Recommendations

The SAWG proposed two major actions that must be addressed at the system level (through BOARS, the Board of Admissions and Relations with Schools):

  • Standardized Testing Reexamination: The majority of the workgroup recommended advocating for a systemwide reexamination of the possible return to standardized testing (SAT/ACT), arguing that high school math grades are only weakly linked to actual preparation, and standardized tests were historically the best predictor of math placement success.
  • Investigate Grading: BOARS should investigate the wide variation in grading standards across California high schools and develop a UC-wide response to ensure fair and consistent academic evaluation.

Tuesday, November 11, 2025

A new European Renaissance

 The full text extracted from the document "The Constitution of Innovation.pdf" is presented below, compiled from the provided excerpts through.

# The Constitution of Innovation

A New European Renaissance

By Luis Garicano, Bengt Holmström & Nicolas Petit · Nov 10, 2025

View as PDF In 1945, Europe was ruined. Average incomes were 22 percent lower than the United States at the start of the war; by the end that gap had grown to 75 percent. These economies were different in kind, too. In 1950, for every farmer in America there were 2.7 manufacturing workers, compared to just 1.3 in Germany and 0.92 in France. 1 But rather than stay poorer, as one might have expected, Europe rapidly rebuilt itself. Not just did it reach its previous levels of development within nine years, it then blew past them. Even though the decades after the war saw some of the fastest growth in American history, Europe grew much faster. In thirty years after 1950, the core European economies grew so fast that consumption per capita tripled while their citizens worked 400 fewer hours per year. 2

Europe converged rapidly on the United States before stagnating

Eurozone output per head as a share of the US, 1945-2022 Chart: Garicano, Holmström and Petit Source: Bergeaud, A., Cette, G. and Lecat, R. (2016):  Productivity Trends in Advanced Countries between 1890 and 2022  Review of Income and Wealth. vol. 62(3), pages 420–444. 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 * Part of this growth was catch-up: converging on the frontier America had set for us. But part of it was pushing the technology frontier forward. By the end of the 1970s, Europe was mass-producing jet engines and nuclear power plants. This success was not an accident; it was ‘constituted’ through a set of common beliefs, proved principles, and appropriate practices that stimulated innovation. 3 However around 1980, this unprecedented growth period ended. While the United States maintained a remarkably constant 2 percent growth rate in average income, the European core economies decelerated, slowly and then sharply. Since 1995, Europe’s average annual growth has been just 1.1 percent; since 2004, it has been a mere 0.7 percent – all while the United States has continued on its steady track. By 2022 the relative gap in output per head has returned to where it was in 1970. Decades of convergence were surprisingly wiped out. 4 A long list of reports by European luminaries have diagnosed this decline. The 1988 Cecchini Report calculated the enormous ‘cost of non-Europe’; the 2004 Sapir Report identified Europe’s ‘disappointing’ growth; and the contemporaneous Kok Report argued the EU was failing through lack of political will. In 2010, Mario Monti warned that the internal market was suffering from ‘integration fatigue’. Last year, Enrico Letta found the European market critically fragmented, while Mario Draghi concluded that Europe’s competitiveness had fallen so far it now required ‘radical change’ just to survive. Despite these warnings, the European Union’s response to its decline has been weak where it needs to be strong, and active in the areas where it should be passive. The problem is not a lack of reports, but a system that refuses to prioritise. The continent faces two options. By the middle of this century, it could follow the path of Argentina: its enormous prosperity a distant memory; its welfare states bankrupt and its pensions unpayable; its politics stuck between extremes that mortgage the future to save themselves in the present; and its brightest gone for opportunities elsewhere. In fact, it would have an even worse hand than Argentina, as it has enemies keen to carve it up by force and a population that would be older than Argentina’s is today. Or it could return to the dynamics of the trente glorieuses. Rather than aspire to be a museum-cum-retirement home, happy to leave the technological frontier to other countries, Europe could be the engine of a new industrial revolution. Europe was at the cutting edge of innovation in the lifetime of most Europeans alive today. It could again be a continent of builders, traders and inventors who seek opportunity in the world’s second largest market. The European Union does not need a new treaty or powers. It just needs a single-minded focus on one goal: economic prosperity. This prosperity is necessary for its own sake and for all the other things we want Europe to be: a bulwark against Russian tyranny, a generous supporter in lifting the world out of poverty, and a champion against climate change. 5 To achieve this prosperity, we need to return the Union back to its original intent, as a federal body dedicated to economic development through a common and free market. The neglect of that purpose has been overwhelming. The European Union currently pursues a long list of goals, including (as given by the Commissioner titles): promoting the ‘European way of life,’ ‘health and animal welfare’, ‘environment, water resilience and a competitive circular economy’, ‘intergenerational fairness, youth, culture and sport’ or ‘social rights and skills, quality jobs and preparedness’. Meanwhile, the internal market has become so fragmented that, according to recent IMF analysis, internal trade barriers are equivalent to a 44 percent tariff on goods and 110 percent on services. And, as Mario Draghi famously pointed out, no European company worth over €100 billion was set up from scratch in the last 50 years; the continent that birthed the industrial revolution has wrecked its own ability to catch the digital one. These are not accidents of history; they are consequences of our choices. In recent decades, the Union and its Member States have confused regulation with progress and bureaucracy with integration. If the European Union keeps stagnating, our countries will not be able to maintain the things its citizens take for granted: unemployment benefits, free healthcare, lifelong pensions, and affordable education. Growth is necessary to pay for existing commitments, and fulfill the recent deluge of new ones. Stagnation is going to make the European welfare state a utopia of the past.

Most member states are heavily indebted

General government debt and accrued-to-date pension entitlements as a share of GDP in 2021 Chart: Garicano, Holmström and Petit Source: Eurostat. 200 400 600% Es to ni a Bu lg ar ia Lu xe m bo ur g Sw ed en De nm ar k Cz ec hi a Li th ua ni a La tv ia M al ta N et he rla nd s Ire la nd Po la nd Sl ov ak ia G er m an y Fi nl an d Sl ov en ia H un ga ry Cr oa tia Au st ria Cy pr us Be lg iu m Fr an ce Sp ai n Po rt ug al Ita ly G re ec e Government debt Pensions * This paper proposes a different path, one guided by pragmatism, not ideology. This requires a clear set of principles to focus the actions of the European Union on a few critical objectives and act decisively to achieve them. To understand how to correct its course, we must first examine how the EU lost its way.

How we lost our way

The European project began with a clear purpose. The 1950 Schuman Declaration proposed integrating the coal and steel industries – the raw inputs of war – to make conflict between France and Germany ‘not merely unthinkable, but materially impossible’. This approach, known as functional integration, was based on the proposition that when economies become interdependent through trade, war becomes prohibitively expensive. 6 The Coal and Steel Community (1951) evolved into the Economic Community (1957), creating the world’s largest trading bloc. The Single Market (1993) removed trade barriers between Member States. The Euro (1999) provided price stability across borders. Nations that shared a long history of violence were progressing towards what Robert Kagan called a ‘post-historical paradise of peace and relative prosperity’. 7 But initial success led to mission creep. With peace secured, the European institutions began to look for new problems to solve. Jacques Delors, Commission President, captured Europe’s principle of action in a famous metaphor: ‘Europe is like a bicycle. It has to move forward. If it stops, it will fall over’. This mantra — that integration must constantly increase or founder — converted the European peace project into a self-perpetuating regulatory flywheel. Legal scholars, practitioners, and policymakers transformed an untested vision into a grand narrative, ‘integration through law’. 8 From the 1980s Europe began legislating on topics with little to no connection to economic integration or peace – the amount of fruit in marmalade, the conditions under which a piece of clothing could be considered sustainable, or what constitutes appropriate political advertisement. What started as functional integration – removing barriers to trade – morphed into the superstition of regulation for the sake of integration. Each new regulatory text justified the next, creating a governance culture where ‘more Europe’ became the answer to every question, regardless of whether European intervention added value. This regulatory overkill has culminated with the response to the digital and environmental challenge, which led to an avalanche of rules driven by the ‘Brussels effect’— the theory that pretends that writing legal rules sets global standards and thus gives European firms a competitive edge. 9 In practice, the Brussels effect has created high costs that harm European firms more than their global rivals. For example, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), favors US tech giants which can shoulder the burden of massive compliance costs but undermines European startups. A recent study shows that GDPR reduced European Union technology venture investment by 26 percent relative to the US. 10 The AI Act follows the same logic, imposing technical requirements for market access on an emerging technology before Europe has even created one major AI company. These rules raise the cost of innovation and slow the dissemination of digital technology across the European Union. The regulatory bicycle is pedaling at full speed. But it is pedaling towards a wall of bureaucracy created by its own policies.

Economic foundations

Europe must do less, but do it better. Prosperity through economic integration should again be central to the Union. In practice this will mean two things. First, the Union must simply focus on the exclusive competencies its architects gave it, which are already orientated towards prosperity. These include the customs union; the competition rules necessary for the functioning of the internal market; monetary policy for the Member States whose currency is the euro; and a common commercial policy. 11 Second, it must work with the Member States to complete the internal market. The internal market has only one definition: the free movement of goods, services, capital, and workers. It is against these standards that it should be judged, exclusively and fully. Every other issue of political expediency – from the energy use of household appliances to the length of the work week – is not an internal market issue, despite what has been said to justify further legislation. 12 While many of these issues are important, the Union provides for their regulation through Member States at the central, regional and local levels under the subsidiarity principle. 13 This is not a repudiation of social concerns. Only a prosperous Europe can fund the welfare state. As Article 2 of the Rome Treaty of 1957 already spelled out, the internal market constitutes the foundation for improvements in standards of living: The Community shall have as its task, by establishing a common market and progressively approximating the economic policies of Member States, to promote throughout the Community a harmonious development of economic activities, a continuous and balanced expansion, an increase in stability, an accelerated raising of the standard of living and closer relations between the States belonging to it. The treaties that have shaped the European Union provide the solutions that we need. Yet, today, the core business of Europe, the internal market, is a fiction. The European Commission, which should be its referee, has stopped calling fouls. Infringement cases are down 75 percent from a decade ago. And the time needed to resolve them has dramatically increased. 14 The European Union needs to stop wading into new policy areas like housing or animal welfare and get serious about enforcing basic internal market rules. This is a question of will and of prioritization, not capacity.

Enforcement has dropped dramatically since 2007

Total ongoing Single Market infringement cases Chart: Garicano, Holmström and Petit Source: European Commission 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 * To face the great transformation ahead, Europe needs both an innovation system and creative destruction. We lack in both areas, but we are particularly weak in creative destruction. The ECB has pointed out repeatedly that Europe’s failure to kill zombie firms crowds out credit for healthy firms. 15 We must stop defending legacy assets and build a system that accepts both market entry and exit as the basic conditions for innovation. This requires a firm commitment to economic dynamism. It means we must actively seek and eliminate barriers to entry that favor incumbents, such as special rights, subsidies, or skewed regulations from banking to telcos, from energy to agriculture. We must support market exit through streamlined bankruptcy laws and flexible labor rules. Market exit is not failure; it is how we reallocate assets, people, and resources from old businesses to new ideas. This entire system must be built on a foundation that allows entrepreneurs and inventors to reap the rewards of their success, supported by secure property rights, deep financial markets, and unwavering legal certainty for risk-takers. Some risks require prudence. But currently, Europe’s risk paranoia is killing its future. Our generalized precautionary approach disincentivizes the bold bets that lead to breakthroughs, from AI or genetic engineering to venture capital. Innovation requires risk-taking. We should enable it, not regulate it out of existence. Ukraine provides an extraordinary example of this vision. It is much poorer than any EU Member State but it has rapidly and affordably fielded military capabilities none of them have, in large part because it has trusted and enabled its citizens’ ingenuity. If Ukraine is still standing today, it is because of the resilience of its people, but also thanks to the efforts of its hundreds of ‘tinkerers, tweakers, and implementers’ in building, testing, and deploying new ideas, especially with drones. 16 Ukrainian Border Guard Servicemen with DJI Mavic Drones. Photo by ArmyInform. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). Europe led the industrial revolution in part thanks to its political diversity: competition among states drove societies to seek and reward the best talent and innovators. Variation is a strength. What works for five countries may not work for twenty-seven. Instead of forcing uniformity, we should embrace ‘variable geometry’, that is, letting groups of willing countries cooperate more deeply on shared goals. Committing to diversity requires genuine mutual recognition. If a product is safe enough to be sold in Lisbon, it should be safe enough for Berlin. We should not burden traders with the task of removing local barriers to trade through judicial remedies in the target country, let alone expect them to do so. Stephen Weatherill has shown that a pure mutual recognition model does not exist in the European Union. Instead, the European Union has a model of non-absolute or conditional mutual recognition. European Union law in reality allows Member States freedom to restrict imports of goods and services and only forces them to demonstrate why imports are not good enough for the home market under a specific procedure. Traders are therefore subject to ‘an unstable litigation-driven trading environment of inter-State regulatory diversity’. 17 The business of business is business, not litigation. A genuine model of mutual recognition lets different approaches compete to find what works best and removes egregious obstacles to trade through swift judicial redress at the European level. We must create simple and clear rules that free competition instead of centrally planning our economy by regulatory fiat. Europe’s frenzy of regulation has been predicated on the existence of free lunches. For instance, climate laws have been sold as leading to job creation and innovation (the ‘green deal for jobs’) not just as the solution to climate change. Citizens were asked to swallow make-believe propositions, like the idea that fighting global warming would be free of economic cost. Similar Nirvana fallacies have been observed in other domains, like migration, trade policy or digital regulation. 18 Honest policymaking requires accepting that goals often conflict. A decision to prioritize one objective, whether environmental protection or data privacy, generates a cost somewhere else – often competitiveness and innovation. We must acknowledge and face these trade-offs. This does not mean that we should give up on the dream of political integration. But our inability to generate prosperity cost us the support needed to achieve it. In order to achieve everything else, our proposal is that the European Union concentrate on its core function – prosperity – for the foreseeable future. Other projects are and should still be possible, but, to quote Mario Draghi, they “would be built through coalitions of willing people around shared strategic interests, recognizing that the diverse strengths that exist in Europe do not require all countries to advance at the same pace”. 19 The European Union has 450 million citizens. They are educated, tolerant, and committed to freedom and democracy. The continent is rich, and, for now, large. This is not a weak starting position. But the Union has become reactive, trapped by crises and caught on the back foot by events, busy protecting what it is instead of thinking about what ought to be. A renaissance is possible. A much better Europe is feasible if it stops building walls of regulation, lets innovation happen, and focuses on prosperity above all else. It must trust its people and let them build.

Legal reforms

We can take six practical steps now to reorient Europe towards prosperity. At a minimum, we must: enforce the internal market rules, stop directives from fragmenting it in the name of ‘harmonization’, facilitate the growth of entrepreneurial firms, focus the union on its priorities and limit the excessive flow of legislation without regard to cost.

1. Eliminate the usage of directives

In 1979, the European Court of Justice ruled in the Cassis de Dijon case that goods lawfully produced and marketed in one Member State must flow freely to all others. The principle of mutual recognition was born. Unless there is a general public interest at stake, Member States cannot enforce their own domestic laws to bar imported goods. While mutual recognition should have delivered an internal market, forty-five years later, businesses must still comply with a maze of national barriers. France imposes unique carbon tests on imported diesel. German Länder require separate fire safety certifications for construction materials already approved elsewhere in the European Union. Spain blocks food with compliant labels. Denmark banned cereals sold safely everywhere else in the European Union. Varying national recycling logo requirements for paint create needless complexity for products that already conform to European Union standards, forcing manufacturers to maintain separate inventories for each country. The solution is to abandon directives entirely. 20 These legal instruments betray their harmonizing purpose. Too often, Member States shirk on their duty to transpose directives. Worse, the abstract, broad, and general language of directives gives Member States opportunities to add local requirements. 21 Businesses end up facing 27 different versions of supposedly ‘common’ rules. European Union lawmakers have tried to mitigate this problem by issuing increasingly prescriptive directives. The result is that directives today often reach the same level of detail as regulations. However, directives do not enjoy equivalent direct applicability in court. 22 They must still be transposed. A better state of affairs would be achieved if regulations were to become the default, allowing traders to benefit from their unconditional applicability in litigation. 23

2. Specialized Commercial Courts

The internal market’s main weakness is enforcement. When Italian regulations illegally block a French trader, that company faces only bad options. It can file a complaint with the Commission and wait years for action that may never come; sue before Italian courts only slightly familiar with European Union law; operate illegally and hope to reach the European Court of Justice through proceedings brought against it; or simply give up. Under that model, effective mutual recognition is a pipe dream. 24 The issue is this: inter-state barriers to trade can only be taken down through administrative and judicial enforcement. The unlikely prospect that traders will commit time and money to complaints and litigation leaves Member States essentially free to regulate domestic markets. We propose that the European Union create Specialized Commercial Courts with exclusive jurisdiction over internal market violations by Member States. This structure fits well with treaty law which allows for specialized tribunals attached to the General Court to hear proceedings in specific areas. 25 Specialized Commercial Courts would have many benefits, including legitimacy, expertise and speed. This is crucial. Any business facing discriminatory or non-discriminatory trade barriers could bring proceedings directly under English-language procedures. Decisions would be handed down within 180 days. The Specialized Commercial Courts would issue European Union-wide injunctions, award damages for lost profits, and their rulings would bind all Member States – when one country’s licensing requirement falls, similar requirements elsewhere become unenforceable. Judgments from the Specialized Commercial Courts would be subject to appeal to the General Court only on points of law, and without subjugation to other policy goals. 26 The entire system – five regional courts plus a limited appeal on points of law to the General Court – would cost less than what Europe loses due to trade barriers in a single week.

3. Federal field preemption

European and national laws do not suspend each other. They add up. This means that traders face a regulatory thicket, which only gets denser as more national, regional, and local regulations are introduced. Right now, banks answer to European supervisors, national central banks, and local regulators simultaneously. According to the Draghi report, there are over 270 digital regulators in the European Union, each interpreting “common” rules individually. The solution is that when the European Union regulates in areas of exclusive competence and internal market legislation, all national, regional, or local rules in that specific area cease to apply. This is the so-called automatic field preemption. This is not a proposal for an imperial European Union with centralized powers. As said before, there ought to be a drastic narrowing of the spectrum of areas governed by European Union law. The European Union should focus only on core economic functions. But when Brussels acts within its exclusive competences, or for the internal market strictly understood, the result must be true unification.

4. A 28th regime that is appealing to businesses

The idea of a 28th regime – versions of which have been proposed by both the Letta and Draghi reports – is to give up on harmonizing 27 different corporate systems, which often accords to the lowest common denominator, and instead create an outside option for firms. In practice, Portugal would not need to adopt German corporate law or vice versa, as there would be a European alternative that companies can embrace if it serves them better. Several 28th regimes for business have been tried, and every single one failed. 27 To see what can go wrong, consider the European Company (Societas Europaea, SE). Introduced in 2004 the SE has been a complete failure. Amongst 23 million corporations registered in the European Union, only between 3,000 and 5,000 are registered as European SEs. Most of them are large firms. Why? First, the statutory conditions for the formation of SEs require businesses to incur high set-up costs and follow time-consuming and complex procedures for incorporation. This has tended to favor large firms. 28 Moreover, the law embodied a high number of referrals to national law and burdens in terms of employee participation. 29 This forced companies and investors to navigate a complex web of rules: the SE Regulation, the national laws implementing the SE, the underlying national company law, and the company’s own statutes. This self-inflicted flaw stripped the SE of its core utility: giving small and medium-sized firms scale through simple and swift pan-European incorporation. 30 As the discussion in Europe stands right now, this is the most likely fate of this new proposal. A leak on the European Commission work program for 2026 says the proposal will take the form of a directive to implement this regime, which means that, sometime in the future, after years of national debates on its transposition, each country will have its own 28th regime. It is essential that this time the European Union gets it right and creates a regime that is truly comprehensive and appealing for businesses that want to scale up across Europe, and for venture capital that wants to invest, and crucially, exit, in Europe. The US demonstrated the power of this solution when it allowed companies to bypass state securities laws by being regulated at the federal level – late-stage firms became four times more likely to attract out-of-state investors. 31 The European Union could achieve similar results by letting businesses opt into European rules rather than forcing all Member States to abandon their national systems. This would also go some way towards unifying capital markets. Countries that wish to maintain their legal traditions can keep them. Businesses seeking European scale can bypass them. Competition between the 28th regime and national systems would reveal which rules promote economic efficiency and which ones protect incumbent’s rents. The 28th regime needs to be a fully supranational (e.g. with no appeal to national laws) set of rules such that companies voluntarily prefer it. 32 Incorporation, as well as the entire legal life cycle from formation to dissolution, should be fully digital. To avoid the fate of the European SE it should contain provisions on employee involvement. Of course, that does not exclude the company from being subject to the mandatory public policy laws of the Member States in which it operates. These companies should fall under the exclusive jurisdiction of the new Specialized Commercial Courts. The contents of the regime should be to govern the internal affairs of corporations (corporate governance, conflicts of interest, fiduciary duties, shareholder rights, and capital structure) and leave maximum freedom for company specific procedures. Statutory requirements, formalities, and involvement of intermediaries should be kept to a bare minimum.

5. Rely on existing institutions when possible

It is an arresting fact that much of the European Union’s expansion has taken place in areas where existing institutions already operate. Fundamental rights is the obvious example. The European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR), also known as the Strasbourg Court, is an international court of the Council of Europe, which has countries such as the UK or Switzerland as members. Instead of joining this long-standing system, the European Union built its own. It justifies this duplication by insisting on the idea of an ‘autonomous legal order’ – a self-contained legal system. This doctrine is often invoked as a pretext to set up redundant, European Union-specific institutions and rules. In the case of fundamental rights, this approach is not just poor practice; it arguably violates the European Union’s own law. Article 6(2) of the Treaty on European Union requires the Union to join the Strasbourg Court’s system, not compete with it. 33 Now, a worthwhile policy would consist of systematically determining which other existing institutions the European Union could use to discharge some of its core missions. For example, it would intuitively make sense for the jurisdiction of the Unified Patent Court to be expanded to also hear European Union trademark or copyright disputes.

6. Reform legislative practice

Once adopted, European Union law becomes eternal law. It cannot be written off, even if wrong. Of course, most, if not all, European Union regulations or directives contain a review clause. Many temporary law and policy programs have become permanent. New regulatory structures entrench interests and are hard to dismantle. National regulatory authorities (NRAs) in network industries like telecoms illustrate this problem. Created to open monopolistic markets, they were supposed to hand over their powers to national competition authorities (NCAs) following liberalization. Decades later, the European Union has both NRAs and NCAs, adding compliance costs to industries no longer in need of market opening reforms. To solve this, review clauses should be replaced with sunset clauses. Unless evidence shows a persistent market failure requiring maintenance or reform of a regulation or directive, the presumption should be that once a set period has elapsed, the instrument is no longer useful. Combined with rigorous impact assessment and productivity boards, sunset clauses would create natural pressure toward regulatory efficiency. Moreover, the European Union fails at submitting new rules to a rigorous analysis of their costs and benefits. The Commission does have the duty to run an initial cost and benefits analysis of draft legislation. However, the Parliament and the Council, when they rewrite the law, often in private meetings (called ‘Trilogues’), are not required to check the costs and benefits of their own changes. This loophole leads to duplicative and often inconsistent legislation. Political deals get made without anyone knowing their true cost. This allows politicians to avoid confronting the cost that new rules imposed on citizens and businesses. To fix this, we need to make cost-benefit analysis (in European Union parlance ‘Impact Assessment’) an integral part of the entire process. First, the Parliament and the Council must each set up their own independent teams of experts to assess the impact of new laws. Second, a new rule must require them to use these teams. Whenever a change is proposed to a law that alters its purpose, key terms, or costs, the team must produce a short, public report on the effects. This report must be available before a final deal is made, so that everyone is working with up-to-date information. This last change can deliver two benefits. Laws that state their costs and benefits strengthen democracy: voters and representatives can judge the trade-offs. Laws that face their economic impacts improve competitiveness: legislators must prove their rules do more good than harm. If this slows the machinery that produced 13,000 legal acts between 2019 and 2024, so much the better.

The path forward

For Europe, growth is existential. It is the precondition for every other political goal we may have, including our very survival. For too long, it has been traded off for other priorities, even though those priorities cannot exist without growth. In trying to do everything, we have hindered innovation, investment, and prosperity. Fortunately, European institutions have a long track record of growth. They did it once, in the three decades after the Second World War. They did it again in Eastern Europe, in the last three decades. Poland entered the millennium at 47 percent of the European Union average income and today stands at 93 percent. Romania climbed from 37 percent to 83 percent. Lithuania surged from 39 percent to 96 percent. Few institutions can lay claim to not one but two of the great growth miracles in the past century. But neither was achieved through the competencies that have been layered on in the last twenty five years. They were products of economic integration and solid European institutions. The European Union must learn from its own successes, and loosen the chains that hold it back from prosperity. The constitution of innovation we propose offers a different path, built on limited objectives, clear rules, and strong enforcement. This constitution does not require a new treaty. It requires will.

Acknowledgments

The Constitution of Innovation was shaped through interactions with diverse individuals and groups, particularly at the events that took place at the European University Institute (EUI) on Delivering Draghi on 05-06 May 2025 and at the Fundación del Pino Workshop ‘Hablemos Instituciones’ on 25 September 2025. We want to express our gratitude to the many colleagues who engaged with, supported, or criticized our work. The views expressed here are ours only. Website designed and built by Khush Jammu.

About the authors

Luis Garicano Luis Garicano is a Professor of Public Policy at the London School of Economics (LSE). He was previously a Professor of Economics and Strategy at the LSE and the University of Chicago. He has also been a visiting professor at MIT and Columbia Business School. He researches the organization of knowledge and how technology, including IT and AI, affects productivity, inequality, and economic growth. He has published his work in top academic journals. From 2019 to 2022, Garicano served as a Member of the European Parliament (MEP). He was the Vice President for Economic Affairs of Renew Europe and led the Ciudadanos delegation. In this role, he guided the group’s economic policy, worked on pandemic-related laws, and oversaw scrutiny of appointments to all European economic institutions including the European Central Bank. He earned a PhD and a Master’s in Economics from the University of Chicago, a Master’s in European Economic Studies from the College of Europe, and degrees in Law and Economics from the University of Valladolid. Bengt Holmström Bengt Robert Holmström is the Paul A. Samuelson Professor of Economics, Emeritus, at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, where he was head of the Economics Department from 2003-2006. He held a joint appointment with MIT’s Sloan School of Management. Since 2021, he has been a part-time Professor at the School of Transnational Governance at the European University Institute. He received his doctoral degree from Stanford University in 1978. Before joining MIT in 1994, he was the Edwin J. Beinecke Professor of Management at Yale University’s School of Management (1983-94) and associate professor at the Kellogg Graduate School of Management at Northwestern University (1979-82). Holmström is a microeconomic theorist, best known for his research on the theory of contracting and incentives especially as applied to the theory of the firm, to corporate governance and to liquidity problems in financial crises. In 2011, he co-authored the book Inside and Outside Liquidity with Jean Tirole. He was awarded the 2016 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for his contributions to contract theory (together with Oliver Hart). He is a former board member of the Nokia Corporation (1999-2012) and Aalto University (2010-2017) and serves on several academic advisory boards, including Toulouse School of Economics and Luohan Academy. Nicolas Petit Nicolas Petit is a Professor of Law and the Head of the Department of Law at the European University Institute (EUI). Petit’s scholarship focuses on EU and US competition law, law and economics, and the intersection of law and technological change. He is renowned for his role in developing the ‘more economic approach’ to competition law and policy, which emphasizes the use of economics and empirical evidence in antitrust analysis. An accomplished author and scholar, Petit has written several influential academic books, including Big Tech and the Digital Economy: The Moligopoly Scenario, EU Competition Law and Economics (OUP, 2020). Prior to joining the EUI, Petit was a full Professor at the University of Liege, Belgium. He has also served as an assessor with the Belgian competition authority and worked in private practice for a prominent US law firm based in Brussels. From 2017 to 2020, he was a member of the European Commission High Level Expert Group on Artificial Intelligence. In 2018, he was a Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. In 2022, Petit co-founded the Dynamic Competition Initiative (DCI) with UC Berkeley, an initiative aimed at advancing prosperity through the study of innovation processes within firms. Petit is also a visiting Professor at the College of Europe and at George Mason University School of Law.

  1. From the GGDC 10-Sector Database.
  2. Bergeaud, Antonin, Gilbert Cette, and Rémy Lecat. Productivity trends in advanced countries between 1890 and 2012, Review of Income and Wealth 62, no. 3 (2016): 420-444. 3. As in Friedrich Hayek’s 1960 book, The Constitution of Liberty, we use ‘constitution’ to mean the basic principles and practices needed for innovation and prosperity to return to Europe, not a legal document.
  3. All figures from “The Past, Present and Future of European Productivity”, written by Antonin Bergeaud for the ECB Forum on Central Banking, July 2024. 5. As Jean-Jacques Servan Schreiber observed in the 1960s, “The degree of autonomy, prosperity, and social justice that a country aspires to depends upon its growth rate. A society enjoying rapid growth is free to define its own form of civilization because it can establish its order of priorities. A stagnant society cannot really exercise the right of self-determination”. See Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber, The American Challenge (Penguin, 1969), p182.
  4. This was the prevalent view before 1914; Germany was integrated with the United Kingdom, and war still broke out. Many have argued that the insight is false. 7. Robert Kagan, Of Paradise and Power: America and Europe in the New World Order (Atlantic Books, 2003). 8. Robert Schütze, ‘Integration-through-Law’: Grand Theory, Revisionist History, 4 Eur. L. Open 1 (2025). *9. Vagelis Papakonstantinou & Paul de Hert, The Regulation of Digital Technologies in the EU: Act-*ification, GDPR Mimesis and EU Law Brutality at Play (Routledge, 2024).
  5. Jian Jia, Ginger Zhe Jin & Liad Wagman, The Short-Run Effects of the General Data Protection Regulation on Technology Venture Investment, 40 Marketing Sci. 661 (2021). See also Jian Jia, Ginger Zhe Jin, Mario Leccese & Liad Wagman, How Does Privacy Regulation Affect Transatlantic Venture Investment? Evidence from GDPR, NBER Working Paper No. 33909 (June 2025).
  6. As defined in Article 3(1) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU). Article 3(1) also lists the conservation of marine biological resources under the common fisheries policy as an exclusive competence.
Endnotes

↩ ↩ ↩ ↩ ↩ ↩ ↩ ↩ ↩ ↩ ↩ 12. Marija Bartl, Internal Market Rationality, Private Law and the Direction of the Union: Resuscitating the Market as the Object of the Political, 21 Eur. L.J. 572 (2015), arguing that “The clear-cut ‘added value’ of the EU in building the internal market gives an incentive to the EU institutions to translate various social problems into internal market language, bringing them thus into the normative and cognitive domain of the internal market”. 13. See Article 5(3) of the Treaty on the European Union (TEU). 14. Ian Johnston, “Policing of EU Market Rules Drops Under von der Leyen’s Commission”, Fin. Times (May 8, 2023), https://www.ft.com/content/b81c0d86-4837-42a5-bf01-d4768791f2cf. 15. Dan Andrews and Filippos Petroulakis, Breaking the shackles: Zombie firms, weak banks and depressed restructuring in Europe, ECB WP Series, February 2019. 16. In The Gifts of Athena: Historical Origins of the Knowledge Economy (Princeton University Press, 2002), cited by the Nobel Memorial Prize committee, Mokyr famously refers to the crucial work of ‘tinkerers,’ ‘tweakers’ or ‘implementers’ in launching Europe into the industrial revolution. 17. Stephen Weatherill, The Principle of Mutual Recognition: It Doesn’t Work Because It Doesn’t Exist, Eur. L. Rev. (forthcoming), Oxford Legal Studies Research Paper No. 43/2017, available at https://ssrn.com/abstract=2998943. 18. Where, as said above, the benefits of data privacy are championed without acknowledging the immense compliance costs imposed on startups. 19. Mario Draghi after receiving the Princess of Asturias Prize in Spain, on October 24, 2025. https://thediplomatinspain.com/en/2025/10/24/draghi-defends-a-pragmatic-federalism-for-europe-to-counteract-the-slowness-of-eu-decision-making 20. Where this is possible. In some areas, directives are required by the Treaty. Letta offered to deprioritize directives relative to regulations. Our proposal is more drastic. We want a moratorium on the usage of directives. Note that the European institutions should also avoid fake regulations that work de facto as directives, maintaining lots of room for MS to introduce national implementations. 21. In any case, with directives based on minimum harmonization - which set a baseline standard but permit Member States to impose stricter national regulations. Their usage must be reduced. 22. While Article 288 TFEU distinguishes between the direct applicability of Regulations and the transposition requirement for Directives, the practical distinction has blurred over time. 23. Regulations are additionally useful because once adopted, they foreclose Member States’ ability to raise public interest exceptions that limit mutual recognition, with the important exception of Article 4(2) TFEU that maintains full MS competence over ‘national security’. Denmark blocked Kellogg’s cereals after having been condemned by the EU courts because the judgment allowed it to do it on public health grounds. See the judgment in Case C-62/01, European Commission v. Denmark, ECLI:EU:C:2003:492 (Sept. 23, 2003). 24. Stephen Weatherill, supra note 17. 25. Article 19 TEU permits ‘specialised courts’, and Article 257 TFEU says that they can be established by a Regulation (under the ordinary legislative procedure) as ‘chambers’ attached to the General Court. It is notable that a past judicial reform eliminated the only special tribunal which was constituted (the Civil Service Tribunal) to double the number of ’generalist’ judges in the General Court, plausibly to safeguard the power of the Court of Justice which feared becoming only a constitutional court and losing the appeals on points of law in an increasing array of specialized areas. The system foreseen in the Treaty is preferable and more efficient. The resources allocated today to the General Court could be more effectively deployed to secure specialization in key areas of EU law. 26. According to paragraph 3 of Article 257 TFEU, “Decisions given by specialised courts may be subject to a right of appeal on points of law only or, when provided for in the regulation establishing the specialised court, a right of appeal also on matters of fact, before the General Court”. 27. Amongst those tried: the European Economic Interest Grouping (EEIG), Societas Europaea (SE), Societas Cooperativa Europaea (SCE) and Societas Unius Personae (SUP). On the SCE, specifically, 18 years since the entry into force of the founding Regulation, there were only 113 registered in 30 EU/EEA countries, of which 75 were active. See Report on Council Regulation (EC) No. 1435/2003 of 22 July 2003 - Statute for a European Cooperative Society (SCE). 28. Joelle Simon, Conference on the Statute for a European Company (SE) (Brussels, May 26, 2010). 29. The SE Regulation is, by its own text, an ‘indissociable complement’ to Council Directive 2001/86/EC, which governs the involvement of employees in the SE. The Directive mandates a complex and potentially protracted negotiation process before an SE can be legally formed. The management of the founding companies must convene a Special Negotiating Body (SNB), composed of employee representatives from all affected Member States, to negotiate an agreement on future information, consultation, and (where applicable) board-level participation rights within the new SE. This process is time-consuming, legally complex, and costly, creating a significant procedural barrier and a high degree of uncertainty at the very outset of a company’s formation. For a fast-moving startup or a resource-constrained SME, such a mandatory, open-ended negotiation is a powerful disincentive. Furthermore, the Directive is built on the “before and after” principle, which aims to ensure that the creation of an SE does not lead to a reduction in existing employee involvement rights. 30. Report from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council on the Application of Council Regulation 2157/2001 of 8 October 2001 on the Statute for a European Company (SE), COM (2010) 676 final (Nov. 17, 2010). 31. Michael Ewens & Joan Farre-Mensa, The Deregulation of the Private Equity Markets and the Decline in IPOs, 33 Rev. Fin. Stud. 5463 (2020). 32. See the European Parliament’s July 2025 report “The Scope of the 28th Regime” for a discussion of all the options available. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2025/776311/IUST_IDA(2025)776311_EN.pdf 33. Nicolas Petit & Joëlle Pilorge-Vrancken, Avis 2/13 de la CJUE: L’Obsession du Contrôle?, Rev. Aff. Eur. 731 (2015). ↩ ↩ ↩ ↩



Newspaper Summary - 121125

 The sources outline a world navigating a complex transition away from a single dominant global order, where major macro trends—dubbed the "Seven Crystal Balls"—are intersecting directly with geopolitical maneuvering and trade relations.

These macro trends reveal a shift toward multipolarity, technology as the primary battleground for dominance, and climate change fundamentally reshaping global economic cooperation.

I. Shifting Geopolitics (v) and the Challenge to Pax Americana

The primary context for all macro trends is the burial of "Pax Americana" and the rise of a multipolar world, where Europe is learning to "walk on its own," Russia remains a power, and China is recognized as the "most consequential power after the US". India is positioned as "non- or multi-aligned".

This geopolitical shift immediately impacts trade through:

  • Strategic Technological Dominance: China leads in 57 of the 64 technologies key for strategic dominance, while the US leads in 7. This tech gap directly influences economic leverage in trade talks.
  • Weaponization of Resources: China's dominance in resources like rare earth magnets (over 90% of global supply) is explicitly used as economic leverage in global trade. China is developing a "validated end-user" (VEU) export system, modeled on US laws, designed to fast-track export approvals for civilian use while excluding US military suppliers from obtaining these critical materials.
  • Trade Deal Dissonance: The US commitment to Indo-Pacific security is perceived to be in "clear dissonance" with its "apparent urgency to strike an economic deal with China," an action that risks undermining key regional partners like India in the Quad framework.

II. Tech Changes (w) and Market Regulation

The macro trend of "Tech changes," dominated by the noise of Artificial Intelligence (AI), translates into both intense commercial activity and urgent regulatory discussions.

  • Global AI Investment: AI augments electrification, renewable energy, and biotech advances. Venture Capital majors are actively circling Indian AI startups. Global firms like Google are investing in data centers and local capacity in India, viewing this "compute" infrastructure as critical foundation for growth.
  • Regulatory Friction: The challenge of technological progress meeting societal control is evident in industry submissions urging the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) to adopt a "flexible and globally harmonised approach" toward labeling AI-generated content. Industry concerns reflect that overly rigid regulation could stifle technological progress and complicate compliance for global-facing businesses.

III. Climate Change (u) and Green Trade

Climate change is presented as a crucial global macro trend necessitating cooperation and transition.

  • Global Risk and Inequality: Over 3 billion people have been severely affected by extreme weather events between 1995 and 2024, with low- and middle-income countries facing significantly higher risk and insufficient coping capacity. India ranks ninth on the Climate Risk Index 2026.
  • The Green Value Chain: The EU and India are committed to concluding a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) this year, with an aim to contribute toward "economic security by promoting more diversified green value chains". Both sides share a common interest in accelerating their transitions to net zero.
  • Trade Conflicts over Green Policy: Cooperation on climate is currently "hampered by conflicts" regarding the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). India seeks to reinforce the climate component of an investment agreement and leverage the EU's support for developing India’s Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS).
  • Adaptation Finance: India argues that adaptation is an urgent priority and that the adaptation needs of developing countries require funding exceeding nearly fifteen times current flows.

IV. Societal Trends (Alienation, Disinformation, Demographic Shift)

Other macro trends reveal deep societal fissures exacerbated by rapid economic change.

  • Alienation (x) and Conflict: Technological and economic changes are far outpacing society's ability to adapt. This leads to the rejection of change, triggering schism and conflict, which is evident globally, including in India.
  • Disinformation (y) and Trust: The perception of change without including the majority contributes to the loss of trust in experts, feeding disinformation. Algorithms further corral people into disparate information bubbles, and this deficit of shared public discourse causes democracy to suffer.
  • Demographic Shift (z) and Singlehood ({): Shifts in technology and social mores, combined with rising women's labor force participation, are driving changes in demography. Total fertility rates are dipping far below replacement levels in rich nations, and a corollary of this is the rise of singlehood.

The sources indicate that the US-India Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) is nearing a conclusion after significant geopolitical pressure from the US, centered on Indian oil purchases from Russia, which resulted in punitive tariffs.

Key Developments in US-India Trade (BTA)

1. Tariff Reduction and Negotiation Status: US President Donald Trump provided the first clear indication that his administration would be lowering the high tariffs levied against India. Trump stated that Washington is "getting close" to a "fair deal" with New Delhi. The fall 2025 deadline was previously set by leaders of both countries for concluding the BTA. The BTA aims to more than double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030 from the current $191 billion. Market sentiment immediately responded positively, with the Indian rupee strengthening 14 paise on hopes of a trade deal.

2. The Geopolitical Sticking Point: Russian Oil The high tariffs were directly linked by President Trump to India’s continued oil trade with Russia.

  • Tariff Imposition: The US imposed 25% penal tariffs effective August 27, increasing total American tariffs against India to 50%. This 50% rate is described as among the highest in the world.
  • Indian Response: Trump claimed that New Delhi has "stopped doing the Russian oil very substantially". Reflecting this pressure, Indian refiners scaled back purchases of Russian crude for December arrival, and India's crude imports from Russia declined by nearly 29% in September 2025 following US sanctions on top Russian oil companies.
  • India’s Defense: Despite scaling back, India maintains that its imports are guided by national interest and the need to ensure price stability. Sources indicate India is likely to resist "arm-twisting demands" to completely stop oil purchases, particularly because of energy security and strong historical ties with Russia. India is instead exploring solutions, such as buying more energy from the US, to circumvent the problem.

3. Indian Negotiating Posture and Domestic Interests: India is currently awaiting a formal response from the US on its trade deal proposal and does not see the need for additional rounds of negotiations at this juncture. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal stated clearly that while a deal could happen soon, India is "not going to compromise with the interests of farmers, dairy and workers". Specific sticking points in the negotiation include US demands for market access in the agriculture and dairy sectors, particularly for genetically modified (GM) soya and corn, which India prohibits. India seeks the complete rollback of the 25% penalty tariff, arguing the current tariffs place it at a competitive disadvantage compared to rivals like Vietnam and Bangladesh.

4. Corporate Context amid Trade Tensions: The American aerospace major Boeing, which has significant defense and commercial aerospace operations in India, affirmed that the trade frictions and tariffs will not hit its operations in India. Boeing India's President argued that aerospace and defense should ideally operate in a "zero for zero tariff environment".


The sources detail a major security incident in November 2025, the Red Fort blast in Delhi, which immediately prompted high-level government response, complex geopolitical maneuvering, and heightened corporate security measures, situating security threats firmly within the framework of major national and international developments.

The Red Fort Terror Incident (November 2025)

The sources confirm a serious terrorist strike occurred near the Red Fort Metro Station in Delhi on a Monday evening, involving a Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED). The explosion, which ripped through a white Hyundai i20 car, killed at least 12 to 13 persons and injured over 20. This incident was explicitly designated as a terrorist strike, marking the second VBIED attack linked to the group JeM, the first being Pulwama.

Investigation and Perpetrators: The “White-Collar” Module

The investigation swiftly focused on an interstate plot linked to a Faridabad terror module tied to the Pakistan-based terror outfit Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM).

  • Key Suspects and Motivation: The central suspect is Dr. Umar Mohammad (or Dr. Umar Nabi), a doctor from Pulwama, suspected to have been driving the car as a fidayeen (suicide attacker). Investigators are probing if he triggered the suicide mission before he could be arrested, suggesting the blast might have been premature or a knee-jerk reaction after the agencies busted his module. The module was described as "white-collar," involving other professionals including two doctors (Dr. Muzammil Ganaie and Dr. Shaheen Sayeed) and a plumber, Amir Rashid.
  • Evidence and Scope: The investigation began following JeM posters threatening security forces that appeared in Srinagar’s Nowgam area in October. The bust led to the seizure of a large cache of material, including nearly 2,900 kg of explosive material such as ammonium nitrate. DNA samples from the suspect’s family in Pulwama were collected to confirm if Umar Mohammad was killed in the explosion. The NIA formally took over the case.

Official Response and Corporate Security Focus

The incident prompted immediate high-level action and subsequent enhancements to national security:

  • Vows of Justice: Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while on an official visit to Bhutan, addressed the horrific incident "with a heavy heart" and vowed that the perpetrators would be brought to justice and not be spared. Home Minister Amit Shah ordered an intensive manhunt for the culprits.
  • Aviation Security Impact: In the corporate sector context, the blast immediately led to widespread security enhancements. The civil aviation security regulator, the Bureau of Civil Aviation Security (BCAS), mandated enhanced checks at all civil aviation installations, including secondary ladder point checking for all flights and physical search of cargo consignments, ensuring no untoward incidents occur in the "surcharged security scenario".

Geopolitical Dimensions

The incident also drew significant international attention, underscoring India’s regional security challenges:

  • International Reactions: Condolences were received from various countries, including Singapore, which explicitly termed the car explosion an "act of terror". The Taliban regime in Afghanistan also condemned the explosion.
  • US Balancing Act: The US attempted to "play a balancing act". While the State Department expressed condolences for the Delhi blast, the US embassy in Islamabad simultaneously expressed solidarity with Pakistan against terrorism after a separate suicide bombing in Islamabad.
  • India at the UN: India addressed the UN Security Council (UNSC) on cross-border terrorism, stating that India has suffered from the diversion and illicit transfer of weapons trafficked across its borders, urging the UNSC to adopt a zero-tolerance approach towards those who sponsor such activities.

The sources reveal that the corporate and market environment in November 2025 is defined by accelerating technology investments, strategic corporate restructuring driven by global competitiveness, and significant caution in Indian capital markets due to persistent external uncertainty.

I. Corporate Restructuring and Governance Shifts

Leadership and Trusts: The Tata Trusts, India’s largest philanthropic entity, inducted two new trustees to the board of the Sir Dorabji Tata Trust (SDTT): Neville Tata (son of Chairman Noel Tata) and group veteran Bhaskar Bhat, each for a three-year term. This move complies with a new Maharashtra government ordinance limiting perpetual trustees to one-fourth of the total board strength. Separately, the abrupt resignation of Britannia Industries CEO Varun Berry caused investor concern, despite the company's strong Ebitda growth during his tenure, with brokerages split on the immediate outlook.

M&A and Strategic Deals:

  • Steel Sector: JSW Steel is looking to offload a 50% stake in Bhushan Power and Steel (BPSL), a deal potentially worth up to ₹16,000 crore. Japan’s JFE Steel is the front-runner, providing technology and wider market reach to support JSW’s expansion plans.
  • Commodities: Singapore’s Wilmar International agreed to purchase a 13% stake in AWL Agri Business from Adani Commodities for ₹4,650 crore ($529.04 million), maintaining Lence’s majority stake in the joint venture.

II. Technology, AI Investment, and Digital Focus

Global AI Investments and Divestiture: Global technology giants are committing vast capital to AI infrastructure. Microsoft plans to invest $10 billion in an AI data center in Portugal, while Google is set to invest approximately $6 billion in Germany. Reflecting the shifting focus, SoftBank Group sold its entire stake in Nvidia for $5.83 billion to fund its ambitious AI projects, including its Stargate data centers and robot manufacturing sites.

Focus on India:

  • Startup Funding: Global Venture Capital majors are now circling Indian AI startups, eyeing early bets, following a decline in global VC funding post-pandemic.
  • Infrastructure and Presence: Google India’s chief, Preeti Lobana, stated that AI helps India leapfrog and change lives, emphasizing local capacity, data centers, and partnerships. OpenAI, the owner of ChatGPT, has also begun expanding operations in India, setting up an office in New Delhi and hiring staff, signaling the country's rising importance in the AI landscape.
  • Regulatory Demands: The Indian tech industry urged the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) to adopt a "flexible and globally harmonised approach" to AI regulation, cautioning that overly rigid rules on labeling synthetic content could stifle progress.

III. Market Dynamics and Financial Sector Health

Capital Market Volatility and Caution:

  • Mutual Fund Flows: Investor caution is evident as inflows into equity mutual funds dropped 19% in October to ₹24,690 crore, marking the third straight month of moderation. Large-cap funds saw the biggest drop.
  • IPOs and Valuations: Several companies are tapping the public market. Capillary Technologies announced an IPO price band, aiming to raise ₹877.5 crore. Financial listings like that of broking firm Groww are expected to see a tepid debut but are still recommended for long-term holding. The failure of new-age IPOs like Lenskart, which debuted below its issue price, highlighted market demands for clearer disclosure of 'core' profitability and stress-testing of valuation narratives.
  • Financial Sector Struggles: Bajaj Finance and its parent, Bajaj Finserv, saw shares tumble after the lender signaled a slowdown in loan demand and maintained elevated credit costs. Meanwhile, IndusInd Bank sought legal opinion on disciplinary proceedings against former executives, including the CEO and deputy chief, and possible clawback of bonuses and stock options following accounting lapses and allegations of insider trading.
  • PSU Bank Revival: Public Sector Banks (PSBs) are undergoing a strong turnaround, reflected by the Nifty PSU Bank index surging nearly 500% over the last five years. This revival is driven by improved asset quality and profitability, attracting stable, long-term foreign capital.

The sources illustrate that Technology, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and the Digital Economy are not only dominating corporate focus in November 2025 but are also fundamental to global economic competition, regulatory efforts, and shifting consumer behavior.

I. The AI Investment Arms Race and Global Strategy

Major global firms are channeling enormous capital into AI infrastructure, recognizing it as the next critical foundation for growth.

  • Global Infrastructure Expansion: Microsoft is planning a $10 billion investment in an AI data center along the Portuguese coast. Google is set to invest approximately $6 billion (€5 billion) in Germany to expand its infrastructure and data center capacity.
  • Strategic Financing via Divestiture: SoftBank Group sold its entire stake in Nvidia Corp., pocketing $5.83 billion, explicitly to bankroll its ambitious AI investments. SoftBank is channeling this capital into projects ranging from Stargate data centers to AI robot manufacturing sites in the US. SoftBank's decision coincides with a growing debate over whether the trillion-dollar expected spending by big tech firms like Meta and Alphabet will yield commensurate returns, though SoftBank executives defended the sale as a "necessary financing measure" unrelated to any perceived AI bubble. SoftBank maintains a portfolio of sought-after AI names, including OpenAI.
  • AI for Enterprise Compute: AI cloud firm Nebius Group signed a $3 billion agreement with Meta to provide AI infrastructure over a five-year period.

II. India as an AI Hub: Investment, Infrastructure, and Policy

India is highlighted as a key territory for AI adoption, compute capacity, and regulatory development.

  • Local Investment and Expansion: Google views AI as a tool to "leapfrog ahead" and "change lives" in India. Google is committed to local capacity, new data centers, and partnerships with Indian startups and governments. This includes a $15 billion investment announced in October 2025 to set up a data center and international subsea gateway in Visakhapatnam, which will be powered entirely by green energy.
  • Startup Funding Surge: Global Venture Capital (VC) majors, including Insight Venture Partners, Iconiq Capital, and Sierra Ventures, are now "circling Indian AI startups" seeking early bets, reversing a post-pandemic decline in global VC funding. This momentum is driven by the AI wave and returning risk appetite.
  • OpenAI's Physical Presence: ChatGPT owner OpenAI has begun expanding its operations in India, leasing its first physical office—a 50-seater space in New Delhi—signaling the country's importance in the AI landscape.

III. Regulation and Governance of AI and Data

The rapid proliferation of AI necessitates new policy and data strategies, though the approach is marked by caution and flexibility.

  • Flexible AI Labeling: The technology industry, including Nasscom and organizations like the Business Software Alliance (BSA), urged the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) to adopt a "flexible and globally harmonised approach" toward labeling AI-generated content. Industry leaders fear that rigid regulation could "stifle technological progress and complicate compliance" for global businesses. Specifically, they criticized the draft rules requiring AI-generated visuals to bear a marker covering at least 10% of the display area.
  • Focus on Harmful Content: The industry submission asked MeitY to clarify definitions and focus rules on "harmful and malicious content" rather than broadly targeting all algorithmically altered media.
  • Data for AI Training: The government is proactively exploring the adoption of a formal classification system for anonymized, non-personal data (similar to the US and UK models) to make public data available for training AI models. This includes data like collective land ownership, historical weather, and traffic patterns. This effort, led by the India Data Management Office (IDMO), aims to leverage the country's vast data pool for faster innovation and growth.
  • Policy Approach: A dedicated committee recommended against creating a new AI-specific law (like the EU AI Act), suggesting that existing laws, with potential amendments (e.g., reviewing the Digital Personal Data Protection Act, 2023), are sufficient to address AI risks. The governance guidelines prioritize deployment and societal concerns, aiming for a flexible, globally harmonized approach.

IV. Digital Economy Transformation and Challenges

The digital economy is transforming various sectors and facing operational challenges.

  • E-commerce and Logistics: Amazon is exporting delivery lessons learnt in India (dealing with choked roads and cramped cities) to its larger developed markets to implement cheaper delivery and reduced warehousing costs, highlighting the innovative nature of India’s digital logistics sector.
  • Convergence of Media and Gaming: There is acceleration in the monetization of digital content through the convergence of narrative design and generative AI, linking entertainment companies to mobile gamers. This involves turning passive viewing content (like TV IPs) into interactive extensions like games, with some companies leveraging AI to create popular IP.
  • Aviation Technology Failure: A major system crash at Delhi airport's Air Traffic Control (ATC) disrupted nearly 800 flights, exposing deep cracks in India’s aviation tech backbone due to outdated, over 20-year-old servers and delays in deploying modern systems.
  • Customer Service Automation: Companies are aggressively racing to automate customer support using AI voicebots and chatbots, aiming for near-zero human intervention. However, this shift risks customer alienation, especially when AI fails to handle nuanced financial queries or actively blocks access to human support.

Government and Policy Reforms in India during November 2025 are primarily characterized by structural changes aimed at improving governance, accelerating economic transitions (particularly in green energy and technology), and navigating complex trade negotiations amid geopolitical pressure.

I. Financial Sector and Governance Overhaul

India is focusing on improving governance standards and deepening financial markets through regulatory action:

  • Banking Sector Reform: The government's structural policy reforms have yielded significant results, with the Nifty PSU Bank index surging nearly 500% over the last five years. Policy discussions now revolve around a potential new phase of reform-led consolidation among smaller public sector banks (PSBs) to gain scale and efficiency. There is also speculation about allowing the government stake to fall below 51% to encourage greater autonomy and private participation.
  • Regulatory Enforcement and Clawbacks: The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 2019 guidelines mandating a clawback mechanism for variable pay due to misconduct are being actively implemented. IndusInd Bank's board sought legal opinion on initiating disciplinary proceedings against former top executives (CEO and Deputy CEO) and clawing back bonuses and stock options following accounting anomalies and allegations of insider trading.
  • Financial Inclusion and Market Deepening: The RBI designated the Self-Regulated Payment System Operators Association (SRPA) as the Self-Regulatory Organization (SRO) for the payment systems industry. The RBI also moved to deepen the bond market by allowing municipal bonds to be pledged as collateral for overnight repurchase transactions (Repo). Separately, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is planning a comprehensive overhaul of the Securities Lending and Borrowing Scheme (SLBS) framework to boost investor participation.
  • Taxation and Transparency: India’s revised tax treaty with Belgium was notified by the Finance Ministry, incorporating a provision to share all 'old' information related to 'criminal tax matters'. This aligns India’s treaty practice with global transparency norms by removing banking and fiduciary secrecy limitations. Net direct tax collection grew 7% in the current fiscal year until November 10, primarily driven by higher corporate tax receipts and significantly slower refund payouts.

II. Infrastructure and Economic Growth Policy

The government is strategically reshaping its economic approach to sustain growth amidst global uncertainty:

  • Capex Strategy: The Centre is shifting its focus from merely expanding the size of public capital expenditure (Capex) to enhancing its quality and impact. It is projected to maintain infrastructure spending at the same level in the next budget (around 3.1-3.2% of GDP), anticipating a pickup in private capital expenditure.
  • Integrated Infrastructure Governance: The government is restructuring the PM Gati Shakti governance framework to create a new overarching authority (likely GTPRO) under the Cabinet Secretariat. This body aims to coordinate India’s transport infrastructure development, dissolving the Network Planning Group (NPG) to break silos, lay out long-term road maps for transport ministries, and fast-track project clearances in line with Vision 2047.
  • Green Energy Policy Adjustments: India aims to be a global hub for green hydrogen production and export under the National Green Hydrogen Mission. However, due to global policy uncertainties, including delays in the EU’s ‘Renewable Energy Directive-3’ and the International Maritime Organisation’s (IMO) green fuel mandate, the target of achieving 5 million tonnes of green hydrogen capacity may be deferred by two years to FY32. Separately, the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) proposed draft changes to the Deviation Settlement Mechanism (DSM), which aims to strengthen grid stability but raises concerns about increased costs and risks for renewable energy developers.

III. Technology, AI, and Sectoral Regulation

Policy is attempting to balance rapid technological advancement with regulatory control:

  • AI Data and Innovation: The government is exploring a formal classification system for anonymized, non-personal data, similar to the US and UK approaches, to make public data (like land ownership, weather data) available to the private sector for training AI models.
  • AI Content Labeling Debate: The Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) is facing industry pressure, including from Nasscom and the Business Software Alliance (BSA), to adopt a flexible and globally harmonized approach for labeling AI-generated content. Industry concerns are that rigid rules (like requiring a 10% visible marker on AI visuals) could stifle technological progress.
  • Drug Quality Enforcement (Schedule M): Following public health crises linked to non-compliant Indian cough syrups, the Drugs Controller General of India (DCGI) directed state authorities to inspect thousands of small and medium pharmaceutical firms to enforce stricter revised Schedule M Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP) standards, aligning them with WHO guidelines.
  • Trade Policy for Domestic Protection: Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal confirmed that the implementation of Quality Control Orders (QCOs) is a priority to ensure high quality for consumers and promote domestic manufacturing while curbing substandard imports.