Newspaper Summary 160626

 

Markets surge on W. Asia ceasefire hope, oil slide

ADDING WEALTH. Investors richer by ₹18-lakh cr in 2 days; FPIs turn net buyers in 11 sessions Akshata Gorde Amiti Sen Mumbai/New Delhi

Markets gained sharply on Monday after early signs of easing geopolitical tensions in West Asia lifted investor sentiment, though analysts cautioned that the upside may remain measured. A preliminary understanding between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend a fragile ceasefire triggered a broad-based rally. Benchmark indices surged nearly 1 per cent, with the BSE Sensex rising 736 points to close at 76,264.33 and the Nifty 50 advancing 231 points to 23,853, though resistance near the 24,000-mark limited gains.

The market rally translated into a sharp increase in investor wealth, as the total market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms jumped by ₹8.5 lakh crore to ₹470.5 lakh crore. Investor wealth has jumped over ₹18 lakh crore in the last two sessions. “Ships of the world, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” US President Donald Trump wrote on ‘X’.

Oil prices fell on the US-Iran deal news. Brent crude futures fell over 5 per cent to around $83 per barrel, its lowest in nearly two months.

RUPEE UP

For India, a major oil importer, this decline is particularly beneficial as it reduces inflationary pressures, supports the rupee and improves fiscal stability. Reflecting this, the rupee appreciated 40 paise to 94.71 against the US dollar. Global safe-haven assets gained ground, with gold rising over 3 per cent and silver climbing over 5 per cent.

India VIX, the market’s volatility gauge, came back close to pre-conflict levels of around 14, reflecting easing investor anxiety as the geopolitical risk premium receded. Trump made the announcement on Sunday evening, with the peace agreement to be signed on June 19 in Switzerland.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomed the development, posting on social media platform ‘X’: “I welcome the understanding reached between the US and Iran on ending the conflict in West Asia, which has caused serious economic disruption across the world and led to loss of life in many countries”.

Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal, however, added a note of caution: “Many of our problems will be alleviated, in case it is a sustainable deal... If peace lasts and there is free movement in Strait of Hormuz, it will have a positive impact on trade. But let us wait and see”.

For India, the Gulf conflict is predominantly an “energy crisis,” said Trideep Bhattacharya, President and CIO – Equities, Edelweiss Mutual Fund. “We’re optimistic that a US-Iran deal could remove a fiscal drag of 0.5-0.8 per cent of India’s GDP by lowering oil prices”.

FII INFLOWS

This could also bring in a sustained revival in foreign institutional investor inflows, which could act as the next catalyst for the market, said Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research at Axis Direct. On Monday, FPIs, for the first time in 11 sessions, were net buyers for ₹200 crore.

How urban slums have become new talent pipeline

Recruiters tap local communities to man retail, healthcare, gig economy in India, abroad Amit Vijay Mohile Mumbai

For Rajesh Chettiar and seven of his friends from Mumbai’s Kandarpada slum in Dahisar, who left for Japan recently, it’s a dramatic change in fortunes. Selected by a visiting delegation from Japan’s Ehime Prefecture — seven for maintenance roles and one for welding — the young men underwent four-six months of Japanese language and vocational training at the Confederation of Indian Industry’s Atal Bihari Vajpayee Kaushal Vikas Kendra in Kandivali.

EARNINGS JUMP

The skilling could result in their monthly earnings jumping from the ₹12,000-₹25,000 typically earned by high-school graduates or ITI-certified workers in India to between ₹80,000 and ₹1.6 lakh. Their journey reflects a broader shift, as recruiters from both India and abroad are increasingly tapping young men and women from urban slums, up-skilling them to power sectors like retail, logistics, hospitality, healthcare, and the gig economy.

“For decades, our cities have fed the slums; today, the slums are feeding the city’s economy,” points out a senior official at the Vajpayee Kaushal Vikas Kendra. Organisations such as the CII and Nihon Edutech increasingly function as labour-market intermediaries, preparing candidates for diverse roles. For example, some are prepared for agricultural roles involving seeding, irrigation, harvesting, packaging, and farm machinery operations under programmes such as Japan’s Technical Intern Training Programme and Specified Skilled Worker scheme.

SOCIAL IMPACT

The transformation is being driven as much by employer necessity as social impact. Retailers, restaurant chains, logistics companies, hospitals, and gig platforms are grappling with labour shortages and high attrition, turning to urban communities for a reliable talent pipeline.

CII’s Mumbai-based Vajpayee Kaushal Vikas Kendra has mapped 50 slum clusters across north Mumbai for direct recruitment drives and plans more than 100 job fairs under its Mission 2026 programme. The Kaushal Kendra initiative has already facilitated more than 65,000 training and placement outcomes.

A similar trend is playing out in Bengaluru, where the NGO Hasiru Dala is formalising waste pickers into contractors and micro-entrepreneurs. By providing identity cards, insurance, and direct contracts with apartment complexes and technology parks, they help workers move from dependence on middlemen to becoming recognised service providers within the city’s recycling economy. In Pune, the Lighthouse Communities Foundation embeds skilling centres directly inside low-income communities to further this mission.

‘Funding is a good start but more needs to be done for India to own its AI stack’

Predominantly everything will continue to be in India. We will also get... people who want to help... but are in the US VIVEK RAGHAVAN, Sarvam Co-founder Sindhu Hariharan Chennai

As India’s sovereign Artificial Intelligence (AI) model maker Sarvam turns unicorn with a funding round led by HCL Tech, the start-up believes that along with much-needed capital, the partnership will also help them hone their go-to-market skills for Enterprise AI use cases.

“AI has changed the way software is going to be written; so there is no doubt about the synergies between an IT services company and an AI company. HCL’s investment in Sarvam helps to create a new generation company out of India,” Sarvam Co-founder Vivek Raghavan told businessline. He clarified that there is no exclusivity agreement with HCL Tech regarding the use of Sarvam’s models.

With HCL Tech’s $150 million investment in return for a 10.46 per cent stake, Sarvam will use the money for training models, for inference at large scale, for agentic use cases, and more.

Raghavan noted that monetisation is important, but Sarvam will also continue to innovate in building larger models and deeper use cases. Sarvam is also ramping up hiring and the focus will be to get more exceptional people in, he said.

“Predominantly everything will continue to be in India, but we will also get exceptional people who want to help India in this mission but are in the US,” he added, speaking about the recent outreach in the US.

MORE CAPITAL NEEDED

“This is a good start, but as we look to build bigger models, the capital we have raised now is not sufficient, and we have to look at more avenues of capital surely,” Raghavan said. “We have the opportunity to move faster towards the goals; we have lots of more work to do there,” he said. Market traction has seen a boost after the momentum created by the India AI Summit.

“Since the Summit, both our voice AI capabilities and API uses have gone up by three-fold in 3 months. That’s a significant increase in adoption, and we see that will continue,” he added.

As for the impact of the Anthropic-US government fallout on India’s sovereign AI ambitions, Raghavan said it is a sign of “what might happen” if we do not have a sovereign AI stack. Given the rate at which models are increasing in capability every few weeks and months, more models will start falling into the advanced nature sooner, he noted.

“From a long-term perspective, we need to have the strength to do this [build our own models] ourselves. As a country, we need to have our own capability in the entire AI stack sovereign — from compute to models to agentic infrastructure and more”.

As for the team’s expectations from the policymakers, Sarvam flags the benefits that AI can bring to governance. One way the government can help is by being a large procurer of the sovereign AI models, and it will also lead to efficiency of services, Raghavan said.

Sarvam is confident of closing the remaining portion of the investment round within the next few weeks, but did not disclose the names of the investors.

‘Global hiring has normalised, but India remains a bright spot’

Real estate, infrastructure and renewables remain very high-growth engines for us NILAY KHANDELWAL, Michael Page India MD Janaki Krishnan Mumbai

US recruitment firm Michael Page CEO Nick Kirk says the global hiring market has moved beyond the post-pandemic frenzy, but demand for skilled talent remains strong. Kirk and PageGroup India Managing Director, Nilay Khandelwal, discuss hiring trends, AI-driven workforce shifts, GCC expansion and why India remains one of the firm’s brightest growth markets.

Edited excerpts:

How would you describe the recruitment market now? Kirk: Trying to talk about today needs context. The last normal year we had was 2019, and we haven’t had a normal year since. Everyone knows what happened in 2020. If you’d said to me in the summer of 2020, ‘don’t worry, Nick, in 2021 and 2022 you are going to see the greatest recruitment market of your entire career, which for me spans 31 years at Michael Page, I would not have believed you. Nobody would have believed you.

There was no indication we were about to head into the greatest recruitment market of all time, but we did. Based on the results of not only our organisation but a number of our competitors as well, there was, through that two-year period, the greatest volume of movement of white-collar workers ever.

Candidates came to market having reassessed their lives during the pandemic and decided that now was a good time to move. They felt they wouldn’t put up with their boss any more or that they could do better. At the same time, a whole lot of organisations were transforming as a result of the pandemic. So, there was mass transformation across multiple companies and a whole load of talent coming to market. It was a perfect feeding ground for recruitment consultancies.

We had our all-time record year in 2021 and then beat that in 2022. It was never better.

What has changed after the hiring boom? Kirk: What we then started to hear was this phrase called internal equity. Organisations suddenly recognised that they had hired somebody on a salary 20 per cent higher than everybody else. Existing employees would come into their appraisal and say, ‘he’s not 20 per cent better than me, so why are you paying him 20 per cent more? I want a pay rise, otherwise I’m going to leave’.

In order to make it fair and equitable across the team, companies had to increase salaries for everyone else. It was costing companies so much money. Companies started coming to us and saying, ‘we just can’t afford the impact of hiring one individual on so much more money than everybody else’.

So, offers suddenly started to go back to what I would call normal — somewhere between 5 per cent and 8 per cent on a global scale — although it varied by market. Nobody told the candidates that. We went into 2023 and candidates were coming to market expecting the kind of increases they had seen colleagues receive a year earlier. When we told them they could probably expect a 5 per cent to 8 per cent increase, they didn’t believe us.

They would go through the entire interview process, get to the end, receive a 7 per cent or 8 per cent offer and turn it down. They would think, ‘it’s a one-off. The next process will get me 15 per cent or 20 per cent’. It was only after doing that two or three times that they started to realise those increases had gone. Then we started seeing more candidates accepting those offers.

The problem with those types of offers is that if I’ve only got a 5 per cent salary increase and I come to resign to my boss, and my boss values me, he’ll probably put my salary up enough to keep me. So, buybacks became a very big issue.

Is geopolitical uncertainty affecting the job market? Kirk: Naturally, whenever you have any kind of macro event, it creates uncertainty. Our target area is white-collar professionals. They are educated, typically risk-averse, they’ve had good careers, and they don’t want a blemish on their CV. If there is some kind of macro event that makes them feel uncertain, often their reaction is just to sit on their hands and stay put.

Without doubt, unhelpful headlines around anything that might lead to higher oil prices, inflation, interest rates and so on do not help. But all I can do as CEO, and all I ask my employees to do, is control the controllables. You cannot control those elements.

Which sectors are driving hiring in India? Khandelwal: Real estate, infrastructure and renewables remain very high-growth engines for us. Data centres are another area with very high demand. GCCs have always been a flavour, so we haven’t seen a shift in that. However, what we are seeing is more European companies viewing India as a real option, rather than just playing with the idea of setting up a GCC.

Europe has been tough overall, especially France. In the past there was hesitation from line managers about having technology teams based in India. Today, they don’t really have a choice because financial performance is under pressure. Either you grow the top line or improve the bottom line. GCCs form part of that story.

To build confidence, we’re often introducing companies that are considering a GCC to another company from the same country that already has one operating successfully in India. That is also giving rise to growth in Tier-II cities because some companies don’t want to be in Tier-I locations where the cost arbitrage starts becoming a question mark.

‘Enterprises need to figure out their sovereignty strategy and roadmap’

Focus on the basics of leading with the right architecture for hybrid cloud, and then apply it to a domain specific use case to get the acceleration of AI ROHIT BADLANEY, General Manager, IBM Cloud Product, Design and Industry Platforms Vallari Sanzgiri Mumbai

Sovereignty has become a buzzword in the AI era with discussions around data localisation entering boardroom discussions globally. Everyone wants to go sovereign; however, the roadmap to this as well as the definition around the term are not well chalked-out. Rohit Badlaney, General Manager, IBM Cloud Product, Design and Industry Platforms, spoke about how enterprises need to define sovereignty before planning their architecture design around sovereignty. Breaking down the Indian CXO-level conversations around this, Badlaney also discusses India’s progress compared to other global markets.

Edited excerpts:

How have client priorities evolved when it comes to technology and AI? Badlaney: They are more thoughtful of their landing zones, what stays on-premise, what goes to one cloud, considering what’s happening around concentration risk of big hyperscalers, sovereignty and protection of assets within a market and what’s fuelled by AI. I find clients to be more thoughtful now versus just saying the answer is public cloud. Clients that think through their app estate and landing zones, and design them correctly, get faster acceleration on both their hybrid cloud journeys and their AI journeys. So, I find that’s changed since the 2018-19 timeframe.

Everyone wants to go sovereign. How does it impact the idea of putting your data on cloud? Are there valid concerns of data being geopolitically gated? Badlaney: I find sovereignty to be a highly overloaded domain. I want to break it up a little bit. I think of sovereignty as a design choice. Everything around data governance — data privacy, data sovereignty — is it within region? The biggest question clients ask is: can you not access the client data? So, enable clients to load their key encryptions so that IBM can never access that data.

There’s also operational sovereignty — do you have local citizens managing the data? The third is technological sovereignty: are you building on open technologies? Are you building on things that are portable and doesn’t lock you down against concentration risk?

If I pick a particular hyperscaler, can I get out? With hybrid cloud platform, if a client chooses our cloud today and another tomorrow, the day after they have the portability choice. What I advise clients is to make sure you have control over data, operational aspects. Can you pinpoint who is accessing your services and where?

Then build on an open portable platform. If you want a kill switch and not use our cloud, move it on-prem to your data centre. That’s why we’re so obsessed with open.

Do you see that understanding among clients? Badlaney: It’s improving. It is not as pervasively known, but some markets are more mature. India is getting there.

In all the CIO conversations I have had, it’s definitely a boardroom topic of sovereignty. What is your point of view? What is your sovereignty point of view? Badlaney: I encourage the industry to really break down the problem versus use the buzzword of sovereignty.

Indian companies are still lagging in the proof-of-concept to execution shift. What is the hurdle in that jump? Badlaney: I definitely see AI taking off in certain clients. The differentiation factor of those clients who’ve made progress is a well-thought-out hybrid cloud strategy. Our CIO has a well-defined hybrid cloud platform. It is on-premise in their data centres. Thinking through infrastructure, data strategy, automation strategy, once you’ve done that, AI becomes easier.

Then you apply AI to a specific problem or a domain. Focus on the basics of leading with the right architecture for hybrid cloud, and then apply it to a domain specific use case to get the acceleration of AI.

12 ships carrying urea, DAP may head to India once Hormuz opens

Prabhudatta Mishra New Delhi

The government on Monday said that with 196.65 lakh tonnes (lt) of fertilizer in stock as of June 14, the availability of crop nutrients is sufficient to meet demand.

It said that with the conflict in West Asia resolved, as many as 12 ships carrying 3.3 lt of urea and 2.57 lt of di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) may transit through the Strait of Hormuz, which will further boost domestic availability.

At the inter-ministerial briefing on the West Asia crisis, which began with the Iran war, Fertilizer Ministry’s Joint Secretary Bandana Preyashi said since March 1, Indian companies had entered into contracts to import 50 lt of fertilizers, of which 21.95 lt of urea and 4.18 lt of DAP, had arrived in the country.

She said against a total fertilizer demand of 383.9 lt during (April-September) for kharif sowing, the country had 196.65 lt of stock of various fertilizers available as of June 14. The stock was 155.19 lt on April 1. Official data show that sales of urea, DAP, MoP, complex and SSP were 70.57 lt during April-May. After factoring sales in the first fortnight of June, total sales in the current kharif season had reached 102.78 lt, she said, adding that it means the requirement may be 281.12 lt by September 30.

7-10 DAYS WAIT

The official said that as many as 16 ships carrying different fertilizers — 8 with 3.3 lt urea, 4 with 2.6 lt DAP, 3 with 1.1 lt sulphur and 1 ship with ammonia — were awaiting passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Sources said that once the Strait is reopened after the agreement between the US and Iran, these may take 7-10 days to reach India.

The government said India had imported a total of 39.36 lt of fertilizers and domestically produced 123.65 lt between March 1 and June 14, which helped in bolstering availability.

India has secured urea supplies from Oman, Malaysia, Vietnam, Georgia, Nigeria, Russia, Finland, Egypt, Algeria, Turkiye and the Netherlands, while DAP and complex (a combination of N, P, K, S nutrients) fertilizers were imported from Russia, Morocco, Egypt, the US, Jordan, South Korea, Tunisia and Saudi Arabia.

Quickly: Crude oil hits 3-month low on US, Iran peace deal

London: Crude oil prices slipped to a three-month low on Monday after US President Donald Trump and Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister said they had reached an initial deal to end the war and to resume traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures fell $4.16 to $83.17 a barrel by 1315 GMT and US WTI was at $80.49, down $4.39.

REUTERS

Unemployment rises as labour force participation dips to 54.4%

DISPARITY. Overall, male participation is twice that of females, shows Govt data Our Bureau New Delhi

Overall Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) dipped to 54.4 per cent in May, down from 55 per cent the previous month of this year, according to the latest government data. This marginal downward trend was mirrored on a year-on-year basis, with the national LFPR slipping by 0.4 percentage points compared to May 2025, as shown by the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on Monday.

While rural participation stood at 56.6 per cent, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, urban areas recorded a notably lower participation rate of 49.8 per cent, marking a sharper annual contraction of 0.6 percentage points, as per the PLFS data listed out in a statement of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.

LFPR ANALYSIS

“The LFPR for persons aged 15 years and above was re-reported as 54.4 per cent in May 2026, compared to 55 per cent in April 2026,” the primary source of data on activity participation, employment and unemployment conditions of the population. There remains a significant gap between male and female labour force participation.

NATIONAL LEVEL

At the national level, male participation is more than double that of female participation. However, females are notably more active in the labour force in rural areas than in urban areas, possibly due to agricultural and seasonal manual labour opportunities.

Female Labour Force Participation Rate (FLFPR) for individuals aged 15 years and above stood at 32.8 per cent in May 2026. In rural areas, FLFPR was recorded at 36.7 per cent, whereas it remained almost at the same level at 24.8 per cent in urban areas compared to the previous month. Compared to May 2025, the overall female LFPR declined marginally by 0.4 percentage points, from 33.2 per cent to 32.8 per cent in May 2026.

Rural FLFPR remained broadly unchanged, whereas LFPR for urban females recorded a decline of 0.5 percentage points over the year, according to the Ministry. It slipped to 51.4 per cent, a slight comedown from the 52.2 per cent recorded in April and marginally below the 51.7 per cent figure from the same period last year.

Army picks Israel’s MEPRO X6 telescopic sights for NEGEV light machine guns

The Army has contracted 57,479 NEGEVs, with 16,479 of them directly coming from the original manufacturer IWI Dalip Singh New Delhi

The Army has selected the Israeli defence company Meprolight’s MEPRO X6 telescopic sight as the dedicated daytime optic for its in-service NEGEV light machine guns, which will be manufactured locally under a partnership with India’s RRP Defense. The MEPRO X6 delivers enhanced target identification and engagement capabilities at extended ranges for one of the world’s largest military forces, the Israeli company said in a statement.

State-owned Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL), which secured the tender with a solution based on the MEPRO X6, will supply products sourced from RRP Defense.

LOCAL MAKE

The Army’s overall evaluation process was focused on reliability, durability, accuracy and ease of operation under demanding conditions. To support local manufacturing and the Make in India initiative, Meprolight has signed a comprehensive transfer of technology (ToT) agreement with RRP Defense, under which the company will transfer the knowledge, processes and manufacturing capabilities required for full production of the MEPRO X6 in India, the company said.

RRP Defense is awaiting the signing of a contract from BEL to begin manufacturing telescopic sights for NEGEV 7.62x51 mm light machine guns. Since 2020, the Army has contracted 57,479 NEGEVs, with 16,479 of them directly coming from the original manufacturer, Israel Weapon Industries (IWI), while the remaining 41,000 units for the infantry will be sourced through PLR Systems, a joint venture between the Adani Group and IWI.

NIGHT VISION

RRP Defense has a partnership with Meprolight and has established assembly lines for the production of conventional electro-optic series of weapon sights, including ‘Red Dot’ for the Army and ‘Mepro Mor’ for the Coast Guard. It will roll out the manufacturing of the MEPRO X6 at its Navi Mumbai facility.