Is Mexico Safe Enough for the World Cup?

 Tyler Cowen: Is Mexico Safe Enough for the World Cup? By Tyler Cowen June 10, 2026

With the World Cup starting Thursday, we will have a truly North American event. Thirteen of the games, an eighth of the total, will be played in Mexico—five in Mexico City, four in Guadalajara, and four in Monterrey. Yet Americans and soccer fans around the world might be wondering whether those games will be safe to attend. After all, it was only in February of this year that street shoot-outs and battles with drug gangs commanded the headlines.

Murder and mayhem ruled after the Mexican government took out drug lord Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (“El Mencho”), leader of the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel. The cartel’s response was swift and violent, most noticeably in tourist hot spot Puerto Vallarta, where parts of the coastal town were set on fire, roads were barricaded, and tourists had to shelter in place. The goal was to send a message to both the Mexican government and the United States, as it is rumored that the killing of Cervantes was aided by U.S. intelligence.

In spite of all that, the good news and the bad news is that Mexico probably will stay about as safe as it has been. So if you want to see the World Cup with especially enthusiastic crowds, this is a great chance to do so (I can also vouch for the food in all three host cities).

Consider the special nature of Mexican politics. First and foremost, Mexico is still not a mature nation-state. By one estimate, drug gangs may control as much as one-third of its territory. That might sound bizarre, but from the standpoint of Mexican history, it is not new or unusual.

Start with the 19th century. When Mexico won its independence from Spain in 1821, what we now call Central America joined the new country only briefly and then split off, even though that land was under the same Spanish jurisdiction. Those cultures and economies were not sufficiently unified to come along. After independence, the state of Yucatán rebelled repeatedly, almost claiming its independence. In the 1840s, the U.S. declared war on Mexico and took away about half of its territory. Texas already had seceded to become an independent republic. In 1857, Mexico fought a civil war. The French invaded in 1861, and by 1864 they helped install a Habsburg, Maximilian, as emperor. Yet Maximilian never came close to controlling the entire country, and was quickly deposed and executed. The 1910 Mexican Revolution killed about 10 percent of the population by some estimates.

The rest of the 20th century was more peaceful, but much of Mexico never fell under unitary rule as did the U.S. and Western Europe. The more remote areas were mostly on their own, and they regarded the government as a potential oppressor rather than a savior. So when the drug trade heated up in Mexico in the 1990s as Colombian traffickers were partially thwarted, drug gangs were able to operate in many parts of Mexico with impunity. Eventually, they became the de facto rulers of those territories, supplying public goods such as general protection in addition to running their illegal businesses. All for a high price, of course, as extortion is still the ruling principle in those parts of the country. If you buy avocados from Mexico, for instance, there is a good chance that part of your money is going to pay tribute to drug gangs.

Another significant fact about Mexico is the size and power of its central government. It spends just short of 23 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP), relatively low for a country of its level of development. By contrast, Brazil, which has roughly comparable living standards, has a central government that spends over 32 percent of that country’s GDP. If the Brazilian government is too large, Mexico’s is too weak and too small, most of all because Mexico cannot beat back its drug gangs by brute force or preempt them in the first place. Ideally, wealthier people in Mexico should pay higher taxes, and that money should be used to strengthen national rule. But the elites, for good reason, do not trust their government to spend the extra money well. And so Mexico remains trapped in its current subpar situation.

So say you go to Mexico. You can always find reasonably safe areas. Either the central government genuinely rules there, as in Mexico City, or the area is sufficiently remote and away from drug trafficking routes that it is safe for other reasons, as in the city of Oaxaca. The central cores of Monterrey and Guadalajara are protected reasonably well by local business interests, even though some of the surrounding countryside is pretty iffy in terms of safety. There are also rumors of deals in which drug lords agree to limit violence in some parts of the country in return for being allowed to live and operate there freely.

An additional source of safety is that the drug gangs, brutal but highly commercial enterprises, are reluctant to murder U.S. citizens. They know that a determined U.S. government could cause big trouble for them, and indeed the Donald Trump administration is pressuring the Mexican government to act against the governor of Sinaloa province, arguing that he is in league with the drug gangs. For all the disputes going on over those demands, there are no reports of U.S. citizens being murdered or injured significantly in response.

You might think that Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum should mimic President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador and jail as many gang members as possible. But the Mexican drug gangs are far stronger than the Salvadoran ones—better armed, much better financed, and operating in many more parts of the country. Keep in mind that El Salvador is about the size of Massachusetts, its gangs were vulnerable to a single decisive strike, and Bukele had the element of surprise on his side. If Sheinbaum tried to copy him, the result would be wanton destruction rather than neutralization of the gangs.

Previous crackdowns did not prove decisive. In 2019, the Mexican government went after the son of another drug lord, Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán from Sinaloa. But the cartel besieged the city of Culiacán, and to stop the violence, the central government released the son. The level of violence then receded.

And so Mexico stays violent and divided. Ideally, the country should be growing at 4 to 6 percent a year, as it plays catch-up and takes advantage of its proximity to the U.S.. Furthermore, the more that we distrust trade with China, the more we are willing to deal with Mexico. Instead, the reality is that Mexican law effectively limits investment from the U.S. despite several trade agreements, beginning with the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1994. Government concessions and permits are required for investment in energy and fuels, mining and water, telecommunications and broadcasting, transportation and ports, shorefront property, and financial services, among other areas. Mexico does not want too much of the U.S. in its economy.

There is an underlying insecurity, namely the feeling that Mexico would not be able to resist so much influence—economic, cultural, and otherwise—from the north. That stems in large part from the immaturity of Mexico’s own nation-state and the fear that tight limits are required because otherwise there is no effective means of pushing back or guaranteeing the survival of effective Mexican sovereignty. You also may have noticed that the level of English proficiency, even in Mexico City, is shockingly low—and below 10 percent for the country as a whole. That holds Mexico back from modernizing more rapidly and integrating more fully with the U.S. and Canada.

So Mexico probably will not end up much more dangerous, richer, or safer anytime soon. Mexico tends to converge back to what it long has been. Nonetheless, for all my disappointment in Mexico’s economic performance, the uniqueness of Mexican culture is what I love about visiting the place. It has layers from different centuries and cultures, including from medieval times, 17th-century Spain, early 20th-century European migrants, numerous indigenous cultures, and significant contact with the U.S.. Cancun is for the gringos, but for me it’s pretty dull. My trips to Guadalajara and Monterrey feel like “the real Mexico,” and most (not all) of Mexico City is still removed from the Airbnb influence of rampant tourism and digital nomads.

I have been to Mexico 33 times, written a book about the country, and visited many of its different parts. I have never been a victim of violence or even trouble there, but I am used to living with the notion that violence may not be, in geographic terms, very far away. Recent flare-ups of trouble will not stop me from going again, and soon. You, of course, will have to make your own decision, but if a soccer game nudges you into the “yes” category, I will be happy indeed.