The following is a reproduction of the Iran Update Special Report published by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the Critical Threats Project (CTP) on June 28, 2026.
Key Takeaways
- Iran has continued to attack US forces in the region to try to deter the United States from undermining Iranian efforts to control the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian drone struck the Panama-flagged M/T Kiku on June 27, prompting US military aircraft to target Iranian surveillance, communications, air defense, drone storage, and mine-laying infrastructure. On June 28, the IRGC launched drone and ballistic missile attacks against the US Fifth Fleet Naval Base in Bahrain and the Ali Al Salem Airbase in Kuwait.
- Iran’s strikes may reflect an effort to dissuade Gulf states from resisting Iranian control over the strait. Iran likely intended these strikes to signal that it will respond with force to any opposition to its management of the waterway.
- Iran is threatening to suspend negotiations as part of its efforts to deter the United States from challenging its sovereignty over the strait. The IRGC Navy stated that US strikes violated the ceasefire and will result in the "complete halt of all diplomatic processes."
- The Israeli government confirmed the locations of two “pilot zones” in southern Lebanon where the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) will backfill the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) as part of a June 26 trilateral framework agreement. These zones lie beyond the IDF’s “anti-tank line,” which likely reduces the risk of Hezbollah attacks on Israeli territory from those areas.
Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz
Iran has continued to attack US forces to deter the United States from undermining Iranian efforts to control the Strait of Hormuz. Following the drone strike on the M/T Kiku on June 27, US retaliatory strikes targeted a range of Iranian military infrastructure. In response, the IRGC Navy released a statement threatening US bases and launched missile and drone attacks on the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain and Ali Al Salem Airbase in Kuwait on June 28. While Bahraini air defenses intercepted several projectiles, the Interior Ministry reported that one Iranian attack destroyed a residential building.
Iranian officials, including Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi, have emphasized that Iran is “solely responsible” for managing the strait under the US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU). However, the fifth article of that MoU requires Iran to engage in dialogue with Oman and other Gulf states to determine the waterway's future administration. Artesh Spokesperson Mohammad Akraminia stated that Iran seeks to use this control to strengthen its regional power, rather than just for collecting tolls. ISW-CTP assesses that Iran is prioritizing recognized control over the strait as a strategic goal.
Iran's strikes also aim to signal to Gulf states that opposition to Iranian management will be met with force. This follows a June 25 declaration by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the United States rejecting Iranian attempts to assert control or charge tolls. Omani officials have also publicly opposed mandatory fees, citing international freedom of navigation. Iranian media has responded with a harsher tone, accusing Gulf states of trying to "conceal" a new "regional balance" established by Iranian control.
Furthermore, Iran is using the threat of suspending negotiations to alter US decision-making. This tactic was previously used prior to the signing of the MoU to compel the US to pressure Israel regarding operations in Lebanon.
Lebanon "Pilot Zones" and Hezbollah Opposition
The Israeli government has confirmed two “pilot zones” for the LAF to assume security responsibility:
- Northern Pilot Zone: Territory surrounding Zawtar el Gharbiyeh in the Nabatieh District.
- Southern Pilot Zone: Territory surrounding Ghandouriyeh and Froun in the Bint Jbeil District.
These zones are located on opposite banks of the Litani River and sit beyond the IDF's "anti-tank line," which should reduce the risk of Hezbollah anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) attacks on northern Israel. While the LAF is tasked with disarming groups in these zones, the IDF plans to retain positions on advantageous terrain near Ali al Taher, Beaufort Castle, and Kfar Tebnit for defensive purposes.
Hezbollah has responded by threatening civil war in Lebanon if the government attempts to implement the agreement and disarm the group. Hezbollah Parliamentarian Hassan Fadlallah claimed the agreement's purpose is to undermine the US-Iran MoU and warned that Iran will not sign any agreement without a guaranteed Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. ISW-CTP assesses that Iran and Hezbollah are attempting to condition nuclear negotiations on a full Israeli withdrawal to preserve Hezbollah's presence in the south.
Other Axis of Resistance Activity
In Iraq, political parties with Iranian-backed militia wings are reportedly planning to publicly announce their separation from their affiliated militias. This "removal of military uniforms" is seen as a move to covertly take over Iraqi state institutions and protect against US pressure to reduce Iranian influence. An estimated 3,000 senior civil servant positions could be redistributed to these parties as they further entrench themselves in the government.
This maneuver follows a mid-June meeting between Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaydi and US Special Envoy Tom Barrack, who presented a plan of “investment in exchange for arms.” The US offered economic support in exchange for Zaydi’s government limiting Iranian influence by disarming militias, dismantling corrupt financial networks, and removing militia-aligned figures from the government. In response, Zaydi’s government has replaced the Central Bank governor and launched a large-scale corruption crackdown that has led to over 45 arrests.
Researchers: Adham Fattah, William Doran, Carolyn Moorman, Benjamin Schmida, Kelly Campa, Annika Ganzeveld.
No comments:
Post a Comment