Newspaper Summary - 310526

 

FPIs turn net sellers for 3rd straight month in May

Per NSDL data, foreign investors sold equities worth ₹60,847 crore in April and ₹1,17,775 crore in March.

INVESTMENT FOCUS Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) remained net sellers in Indian equities for the third consecutive month in 2026, with net outflows of ₹32,963 crore in May, according to National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) data. The pace of selling, however, showed signs of moderating in the final week of May. NSDL data for the four trading sessions ended May 29 presented a mixed picture.

On May 25, FPIs recorded a net outflow of ₹6,176.80 crore across segments. The trend reversed the next day, with net inflows of ₹2,564.20 crore. Selling resumed on May 27, when FPIs pulled out ₹1,330.07 crore, before the month closed with equity investment standing at ₹1,505.22 crore on May 29. These gains partially offset outflows of ₹5,259.31 crore on May 25, which was the steepest single-day equity withdrawal of the week.

DEBT: MIXED TREND The debt market continued to reflect caution. In the Debt-VRR segment, FPIs were net sellers through the week, with the sharpest outflow of ₹976.41 crore on May 25.

For context, FPIs sold equities worth ₹60,847 crore in April and ₹1,17,775 crore in March, the latter being the largest monthly outflow so far this year. February briefly bucked the trend with net inflows of ₹22,615 crore, while January saw outflows of ₹35,962 crore. Total net FPI outflows from Indian equities in 2026 have now reached ₹2,24,932 crore. This was partly offset by ₹15,497 crore of inflows through the primary market route.

According to Prashant Shah, Co-founder and CEO of Definedge Securities, “Between January and April, FPIs pulled out nearly ₹2-lakh crore from Indian equities, already exceeding the total outflows recorded during the whole of 2025". Analysts attributed the sustained selling to a combination of geopolitical and global uncertainty and risk aversion. This has been compounded by macroeconomic pressures such as a weakening rupee and elevated crude oil prices.

DIIs CUSHION VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, noted that poor earnings growth in India compared to much stronger growth in countries like the US, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan—along with strong AI-related trade in those markets—contributed significantly to FPI selling in India. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continued to provide a strong counterbalance to foreign selling, with DIIs infusing ₹82,668 crore during the period.

Anupama Ghosh, Mumbai

When bits and bytes take a large bite

Nishanth Gopalakrishnan bl. research bureau

DEJA VU. While current semiconductor cycle appears rock solid, history indicates it can end in tears

If you are an investor and you have not heard the word ‘semiconductors’ recently, you have been living under a rock! The world is in the grip of an AI gold rush and at the heart of it all? Semiconductors. These are computer chips that form the muscle behind AI and the building blocks responsible for every lightning-fast response from your favourite AI model.

Companies that design or manufacture these chips are seen as shovel sellers of this gold rush, and investors have been going hammer and tongs at lapping up stocks of these companies like there is no tomorrow!

Ten Trillion dollars! That’s the wealth these stocks have generated for investors over the past year. For perspective, that’s about twice of India’s total market cap.

Chip stocks have given unreal returns in the past 12 months, and every other stock is at its all-time high or thereabouts. Key among them include SK hynix’s (South Korea) 1,008 per cent rise, Micron Technology’s (the US) 903 per cent and Samsung’s (South Korea) 468 per cent. Samsung, Micron and SK hynix even joined the ‘$1-trillion market-cap club’ only in the past few weeks. Wealth-creation wise, Nvidia tops the list, having added $1.7 trillion to its market-cap, followed by TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) at $1.1 trillion.

The US-listed SOXX ETF (iShares Semiconductor ETF), which tracks the performance of a basket of 30 semiconductor stocks, is up 172 per cent in one year, dwarfing the S&P 500’s rather healthy 28 per cent.

UNDERSTANDING 0s AND 1s

AI is supposed to be the next-generational leap in technology such as personal computers, Internet and cell phones of the past. Whether AI reaches the extreme view of replacing human labour or remains an effective tool for search and code, AI models need bleeding-edge semiconductors working non-stop in data centres—both for training (feeding massive amounts of data for the model to learn) and inference (getting a response from a prompt).

While ‘semiconductor’ is a broad term, specific chips are relevant for AI/data centre applications:

• GPU: Graphics Processing Units are the kings of parallel processing, ideal for training AI models.
• CPU: Central Processing Units handle logistics, fetching datasets to and from storage for GPUs.
• NAND flash memory: Acts as the non-volatile data warehouse.
• DRAM: Dynamic Random-Access Memory holds active systems and apps in memory for the CPU to process without latency.
• HBM: High-bandwidth memory is for GPUs; it consists of vertically stacked DRAMs placed close to the GPU to ensure faster speeds.

THE MARKET OPPORTUNITY

A McKinsey report reveals that if a data centre costs $100 to build, about $60 goes towards compute hardware. Applying this, the semiconductor industry is poised to take advantage of close to a trillion-dollar opportunity ($1.6 trillion x 60 per cent). Analog Devices projects the semiconductor industry will grow from $750 billion currently to $1.6 trillion by 2030, at a 16 per cent CAGR.

On the supply side, these levels of demand are unprecedented and almost impossible to meet immediately, leading to staggered order-book fulfillment.

ECOSYSTEM PLAYERS

The story looks at eight large players: Nvidia, Micron, Broadcom, and AMD (the US); Samsung Electronics and SK hynix (South Korea); Taiwan’s TSMC and ASML from the Netherlands.

WHY THE CRAZE?

Revenue and earnings are projected to grow multi-fold over CY26-27. For instance, Nvidia is expected to treble its earnings to about $300 billion in CY25-27. Memory chip players (Micron, Samsung, SK hynix) show profit growth rankings at the top between 7.5x and 8.6x.

However, these earnings are largely led by price spikes because demand is larger than supply by a country mile. Micron’s DRAM sales rose 74 per cent sequentially in February 2026, primarily due to a ‘mid-60 per cent’ growth in average selling price and only a ‘mid-single-digit’ increase in bit shipments.

CYCLICALITY AND COUNTER-VIEWS

Market veterans Michael Burry and Peter Berezin call this the ‘bull-whip effect’ or the ‘toilet paper effect’. This occurs when panic-driven demand leads to hoarding and a drastic production ramp-up. By the time supply hits, panic ends, leading to flooding of inventory and price correction.

Unlike defensive software, semiconductors are typically a cyclical industry. For example, while Microsoft’s revenue grew consistently between 10-16 per cent post-2000, Micron’s was volatile and uneven. In March 2000, Micron posted 7x profit increases, but missed expectations due to a 20-per cent sequential drop in average selling price. The stock peak of $97.5 in July 2000 was not breached again until April 2021.

DOT-COM LESSONS

Today's semiconductor position is reminiscent of the dot-com crash era. Then, the Internet was the defining technology; today, it is AI. Today’s cohort is expected to post earnings growth CAGR between 45 per cent and 164 per cent over CY23-26E. Similar robust CAGR was witnessed in FY97-00 before earnings jumped off a cliff. In FY01, some dot-com cohort companies slipped into losses, and it took years—sometimes decades—to recover to FY00 profit levels.

CONCLUSION

While chip stocks could remain bullish as they digest earnings, the ‘bull-whip effect’ is a possibility. With the true extent of AI-driven disruption still under cloud cover, long-term investors would be better served prioritising caution over the pursuit of quick gains.

Investing to beat higher inflation

Aarati Krishnan
Contributing Editor

REAL RETURNS. Here’s a look at where investors could invest when inflation is spiking

Since 2024, Indian investors have enjoyed a pleasant honeymoon with inflation. Good monsoons and low crude oil prices have meant that CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation has stayed well below the 4 per cent mark in this period.

Thanks to the Iran conflict, this situation is now set to change. Irrespective of whether the Trump ‘deal’ is struck or not, a portion of the global oil and gas capacity has been damaged by the war. The closure of Hormuz has disrupted shipping routes and supply chains, which may take months to normalise. Global prices of petroleum, gas, and their derivative products are not fully reflecting these disruptions yet, as floating inventories have helped alleviate shortages.

But now, with oil companies beginning to announce successive price hikes, the impact of supply chain breaks showing up, and a looming El Niño set to fire up food prices, India’s inflation rates look likely to spike again. History has shown that spikes in inflation, driven by multiple triggers, do not fade away quickly and last a while. We should also be open to the possibility of mean reversion, as India’s long-term CPI inflation rate has averaged 6 per cent.

Therefore, how should you as an investor prepare for this reversal? Let’s take stock.

GOLD: LESS OF A HEDGE IN SHORT TERM

Theoretically, gold is supposed to be a good hedge against inflation because it preserves its value against paper money. While true in the long run, gold has proved an ineffectual hedge in the short term. Since the Iran war began, global gold prices are down 14 per cent in dollar terms. In India, rupee depreciation has cushioned this fall, but prices are still down about 2 per cent since the war began.

This strange behaviour is underpinned by two factors:

1. Central Bank Selling: The conflict has prompted some central banks (like Russia and Turkiye) to sell gold to tide over tight finances.
2. Spiking Treasury Yields: Rising inflation expectations have caused global treasury yields to spike. Treasuries compete directly with gold as safe-haven options; when yields improve, global investors often sell gold.

As an investor, you should still hold gold as a portfolio hedge against geopolitical risks and equity volatility, but do not look to it to protect against short spells of high inflation.

DEBT: SHORTER THE BETTER

Investors locked into fixed interest on bonds or deposits are clear losers from rising inflation, as it eats into real returns. Additionally, a spike in inflation increases the possibility of rate hikes, leading to capital losses on bonds.

If you are a debt investor, consider these options:

• Floating Rate Bonds: The Government of India’s Floating Rate Savings Bond (currently at 8.05 per cent) is pegged to a spread over the National Savings Certificate and can improve if inflation leads to higher rates.
• Debt Mutual Funds: Categories like floating rate debt funds (using swaps), money market mutual funds (investing in instruments with under one-year maturity), and ultra-short duration funds (three to six-month maturity) help piggyback on rising rates.

In this scenario, bonds, deposits, and mutual funds with more than one-year maturity are best avoided.

EQUITIES: SELECTIVE GAINS

Theory suggests equities can beat inflation in the long run because nominal economic growth lifts revenues, and rising wages stoke spending. However, the reality is more nuanced. Input inflation creates immediate margin pressures, so a company’s ability to grow profits depends on its pricing power — the extent to which it can pass on inflated costs to consumers.

When choosing stocks today, look for:

• Companies in duopolistic or oligopolistic sectors.
• Firms with wide brand or distribution moats.
• Sector leaders with dominant market share.
• Companies with a services component in their revenue mix.

Another hedge is to bet directly on companies churning out commodities. This can be done via commodity ETFs or international funds like the DSP World Mining Overseas Equity Fund or ICICI Pru Strategic Metal and Energy Equity.

FULL MENU

• Debt options: Floating rate bonds and debt funds, money market funds, ultra-short duration funds.
• Equities: Choose firms with pricing power.
• Gold: Good portfolio hedge against geopolitical risks and equity volatility.

Third-party payment in MFs: Good or bad?

Kumar Shankar Roy bl. research bureau

BL EXPLAINER. SEBI considers salary-linked investing, unit-based distributor commissions & donations via schemes

Your mutual fund (MF) investments currently have to be paid for from your own bank account. Regulator SEBI is now considering a relaxation to this rule. In a consultation paper issued on May 20, it has proposed allowing third-party payments in specific situations, including investments made through salary deductions, commission paid to MF distributors in units and donations routed via MFs.

What is SEBI trying to do through its consultation paper on enabling third-party payments in MFs?

Currently, MF investments have to be paid for from the investor’s own bank account. SEBI is now considering whether this rule can be relaxed in a few limited situations where another party makes the payment, but the investment still belongs to, or benefits, an identified investor or beneficiary.

The consultation paper proposes allowing third-party payments in three cases:

• An employer deducts money from an employee’s salary and invests it in MF schemes chosen by that employee.
• An AMC pays trail commissions to a MF distributor in the form of MF units instead of cash.
• Contributions or donations are channelled towards social causes through MFs.

SEBI is thus not proposing a free-for-all in third-party payments. It is examining whether specific, traceable relationships...

What do the existing rules specify regarding this?

Under the present framework, the money used to buy MF units must come directly from the investor’s own bank account. Payments must also move through permitted channels, such as RBI-authorised payment aggregators or SEBI-recognised clearing corporations.

In regulatory terms, this creates a closed loop — the investor, the source of the investment money and the recipient of the redemption proceeds are linked through verified bank accounts. A third-party payment breaks this link at the investment stage, which is why the present framework takes a conservative approach.

The rule helps the MF system establish whose money is being invested, trace the payment route and ensure that redemption proceeds are paid only into verified bank accounts. These safeguards are intended to reduce fraud and money-laundering risks and support compliance with the Prevention of Money Laundering Act. Competing products such as insurance already allow third-party payments.

How will paying for MF units through employer help investors?

Under the proposal, an eligible employer could deduct an amount from an employee’s salary and make a consolidated payment to an AMC for investment in MF schemes selected by the employee.

The facility would be voluntary. Only employees who opt for it would participate, and they would choose their preferred schemes. For employees, the proposed advantage is mainly convenience rather than access to a new investment product. They can already invest in MFs on their own. What changes is that regular investing could be embedded in the salary process, rather than requiring the employee to separately initiate payments from his or her bank account.

A key investor-interest question is whether such payroll-routed investments would be made in Direct Plans or Regular Plans. If the employee is choosing the scheme and the employer is merely facilitating the salary deduction, routing such investments through Regular Plans could mean the employee bears distribution-related costs despite not receiving distributor-led advice.

Another point to consider is the feasibility of having another salary-linked investment. EPF contributions already take up a portion of the employees’ salaries. In other cases, there is the NPS. It can be argued that not many employees can find room for another automated saving option, unless they create space by organising existing monthly investments.

What are the challenges likely to be?

Allowing a third party to pay for an investor’s MF units creates a key regulatory concern. The person funding the investment is different from the person who owns the units. This raises risks around tracing the source of funds, preventing money laundering and fraud, and avoiding conflicts of interest or mis-selling.

For instance, an employer facilitating salary-linked investments could favour schemes of an affiliated AMC. Similarly, SEBI explicitly flags that allowing an AMC to pay trail commissions to distributors in MF units could create a conflict of interest.

Practical operational risks include the payroll route exposing employees to situations where money is withheld from pay without timely allotment of the intended MF units. Since MFs are market-linked, delayed or incorrect allotment could also result in an adverse NAV impact, unless the final framework clearly fixes responsibility and compensation.

Some are calling it India’s 401(k) moment. Is this right?

Not quite, at least not yet. SEBI’s proposal could make MF investing more convenient by allowing employees to route investments through salary deductions. In that limited sense, it introduces a workplace-linked investing channel.

But salary deduction alone does not make an investment facility a retirement system. It only changes how the investment is funded. A 401(k)-type framework is about the broader architecture of retirement savings, including its retirement purpose, incentives, the employer’s role and the rules governing accumulation and withdrawal. The consultation paper does not propose a dedicated retirement product.

BROADER GOAL The proposal is aimed at making genuine transactions easier while retaining checks against fraud and money laundering.

Retirement Income Scheme

Dhuraivel Gunasekaran
bl. research bureau

SIMPLYPUT

Two friends, Nirmal and Rahul, are chatting over tea.

Nirmal: Rahul, I read that the pension fund regulator PFRDA has launched a Retirement Income Scheme (RIS) under NPS. What’s new about it?

Rahul: Until now, NPS (National Pension System) was mainly about building a retirement corpus. Once you retire, a part of that corpus had to be used to buy an annuity (a product that provides regular pension income) and the rest could be withdrawn as a lump sum.

The new Retirement Income Scheme addresses a different question: how can retirees convert the portion of their NPS corpus that is not used to purchase an annuity into a steady income stream without withdrawing it all at once? Under the scheme, retirees can keep this balance invested within the NPS and draw it down gradually through monthly, quarterly, or annual payouts until the age of 85.

Nirmal: How is this different from the existing annuity option?

Rahul: The annuity requirement remains unchanged. Government employees must still use at least 40 per cent of their corpus to buy an annuity, while for others, instead of taking the remaining portion and having to find a way to invest it, you can keep it within NPS and withdraw it systematically over time.

Nirmal: Where is this money invested while I’m drawing income from it?

Rahul: It is invested in a new fund called RIS Steady. It follows a glide-path strategy. At age 60, the fund allocates 35 per cent to equities/shares, 10 per cent to corporate bonds and 55 per cent to government securities. As you age, the equity exposure is gradually reduced and the allocation to safer assets increases.

The idea is simple. Retirement can easily last 20 to 30 years. A retiree still needs some equity exposure to beat inflation, but risk should reduce with age. RIS Steady tries to strike that balance automatically.

Nirmal: How do the withdrawals work?

Rahul: There are two methods. One is Systematic Payout Rate (SPR). Here, the annual withdrawal rate depends on your age. At age 60, the payout rate works out to about 4 per cent. So if your drawdown corpus (the amount kept aside for phased withdrawals) is ₹1 crore, you would receive roughly ₹4 lakh a year, or around ₹33,000 a month. The amount remains fixed for one year and is recalculated annually. SPR rate increases with age.

The other method allows you to specify a period. It is like the SWP (Systematic Withdrawal Plan) of mutual funds. For example, a ₹1-crore corpus with an NAV (net asset value) of ₹10 translates into 10 lakh units. If these are spread over 25 years of monthly payouts, about 3,333 units are redeemed every month. Since the fund’s NAV changes, the rupee amount you receive can vary.

Nirmal: What are the advantages of this new RIS scheme?

Rahul: The biggest benefit is that it tackles longevity risk, i.e. the risk of outliving your savings. Many retirees struggle to manage a large lump-sum corpus after retirement.

Another advantage is that SPR discourages excessively high withdrawal rates. That reduces the risk of depleting the corpus too quickly, especially during the initial periods of poor market returns.

Nirmal: Is there a catch?

Rahul: Yes. Unlike an annuity, RIS does not guarantee income. The corpus remains invested in market-linked assets, so returns and payouts can fluctuate. Also, the preset asset allocation may not suit everyone. Some retirees may find the 35 per cent equity exposure too aggressive, while others may consider it too conservative.

Retirees shouldn’t assume RIS is the perfect answer for everyone. Each person’s financial situation is different. The right choice will depend on income needs, risk appetite, tax considerations and how comfortably the payouts can sustain their lifestyle through retirement.

Hang in there!

Gurumurthy K bl. research bureau

INDEX OUTLOOK. Nifty 50, Sensex and Nifty Bank index look vulnerable to fall more

Nifty 50, Sensex and Nifty Bank index opened the week on a positive note with a wide gap-up on Monday. However, they failed to get a strong follow-through rise after that. Sensex and Nifty fell sharply on Friday, giving away all the gains. The indices closed the week lower by 0.8 and 0.7 per cent, respectively. Nifty Bank index also witnessed a strong sell-off on Friday. However, it managed to close the week marginally higher by 0.3 per cent. The Sensex, Nifty 50 and the Nifty Bank indices look vulnerable to fall more from here. To avoid the fall, the indices have to bounce back immediately and breach their near-term resistance decisively.

FPIs SELL

The Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) continue to sell Indian equities. However, the quantum of selling has come down in the last two weeks. The equity segment saw a net outflow of about $268 million last week. The FPIs have sold about $3.45 billion in the month of May. There has been a net outflow of about $22.64 billion in the last three months.

NIFTY 50 (23,547.75)

Short-term view: Failure to get a strong follow-through rise and a sharp fall on Friday has turned the short-term picture weak. Nifty looks vulnerable for a fall to 23,000. A break below 23,000 can drag the index further down to 22,400 in the coming weeks. A fall beyond 22,400 is less likely. We can expect the index to reverse higher from around 22,400 again.

Key resistances are at 23,700, 23,850 and 23,900. Nifty has to breach these hurdles and then get a sustained rise above 24,000. Only then the chances of a rise to 24,300 and 24,700 will come back into the picture.

Medium-term view: The broader 22,000-26,500 range remains intact for now. Earlier, we had expected the index to move up within this range, but now it looks like Nifty can fall back again towards the lower end of the range.

However, the big picture remains positive. We retain our bullish view of seeing a break above 26,500 eventually. Such a break can take the Nifty higher to 28,000 and 30,000 in the long term. A fall below 22,000 is needed to turn the outlook bearish, which looks less likely in the absence of any new and strong negative trigger.

NIFTY BANK (54,239.20)

Short-term view: Nifty Bank index broke the resistance at 55,100 initially last week but did not sustain. Immediate support is at 53,700 which can be tested in the near term. A bounce from this support and a subsequent rise above 54,500 can be bullish for a rise to 56,000-56,500. But if the index breaks below 53,700, it can come under more selling pressure, potentially leading to a fall to 51,000-50,500.

Medium-term view: The broader bullish view will remain intact as long as the index stays above 50,000. Intermediate resistances are at 58,500 and 60,500. A decisive rise above 60,500 can boost the momentum for a rise to 64,000-65,000 in the medium term. That in turn will keep the doors open for a rally to 68,000-69,000 in the long term. The bullish view will get negated only if the Nifty Bank index declines below 50,000, which looks less likely as seen from the charts.

SENSEX (74,775.74)

Short-term view: The rise to 76,500 happened last week but did not sustain. Sensex touched a high of 76,627 and then fell sharply, giving back all the gains. The index can test 74,100 initially this week. A break below it can drag it down to 73,000 in the short term. The region between 76,500 and 77,100 is a crucial resistance zone. Sensex has to rise past 77,100 to get some breather.

Medium-term view: The index is now coming down within its broad 71,000-86,000 range. In case the fall extends beyond 73,000, the downside can be limited to 71,000. We retain our positive bias to see a bullish breakout above 86,000 eventually, targeting 90,000 initially and 94,000 over the long term. This view will go wrong only if the Sensex declines below 71,000, leading to a possible fall to 69,000.

NIFTY MIDCAP 150 (22,571.40)

The index has come down sharply after making a high of 23,007 last week. Immediate support is at 22,400. A break below it can drag the Nifty Midcap 150 index down to 21,900-21,800 in the short term. The broader picture remains positive with crucial resistance at 23,100. A break above this can take the index to 26,000-26,500 and even 28,000-28,500 in the long term. The outlook turns bearish only below 20,800.

NIFTY SMALLCAP 250 (16,992.10)

The rise above 16,900 keeps the broader bullish view intact. Immediate support is in the 16,900-16,800 region. The short-term picture turns negative only below 16,800. If it sustains above that, a rise to 17,500 and then 18,000 is likely. Surpassing resistance at 18,300 could take the index to 22,500-23,000 and even 24,000 in the long term. The bullish view is negated only below 14,000.

SUPPORTS TO WATCH OUT FOR

• Nifty 50: 23,000, 22,400
• Sensex: 74,100, 73,000
• Nifty Bank: 53,700, 50,500

No going back

Gurumurthy K bl. research bureau

US MARKET OUTLOOK. NASDAQ coming close to a key resistance

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite index continue to move up. The US benchmark indices are retaining their strength and are keeping intact their broader uptrend. The Dow Jones and the S&P 500 have more room to rise from current levels, but the NASDAQ Composite index is coming close to a crucial resistance. The price action in the next couple of weeks will be vital in determining if the NASDAQ reverses its trend.

DOW JONES (51,037.09)

The rise to 51,300-51,500 mentioned previously is occurring as expected. From a medium-term perspective, the index has the potential to target 52,000-52,500.

Immediate support is at 50,800, followed by 50,300 and 50,000. The short-term outlook turns negative only below 50,000, which could lead to a fall toward 49,300-49,000. Broadly, the 52,500 region is a strong resistance that could halt the current rally, requiring caution as the index approaches this level.

S&P 500 (7,580.05)

The break above 7,500 has boosted bullish momentum and opened the door for further gains, with 7,500 now acting as a near-term support. The current rally is expected to find a top in the 7,800-7,850 region before reversing lower.

NASDAQ COMPOSITE (26,972.62)

The rise above 26,800 keeps the bullish view of seeing 27,500 intact. However, the 27,500 region is a strong trendline resistance where the rally is likely to halt. A downward reversal from there, followed by a fall below 26,900, could trigger a corrective leg dragging the index to 26,000 or lower. Investors are advised to remain cautious as the index reaches this crucial juncture.

DOLLAR INDEX (99.15)

The immediate outlook is mixed. Near-term support is at 98.70; a break below this could lead to 98.55-98.50, with further pressure potentially dragging it to 97.80. Conversely, the index must decisively breach resistance at 99.45-99.55 to strengthen the case for a rise toward 100.50-101.

TREASURY YIELD

Crude oil prices tumbling below $100 per barrel dragged yields lower, with the US 10 Year Treasury Yield (4.44 per cent) breaking below 4.5 per cent support. This move was contrary to expectations of a bounce. While there is support at current levels that could lead to a relief bounce back to 4.6 per cent, a failure to rise above 4.48 per cent could continue the downward pressure.