Summoning God from Silicon: The State of AI 2026

 Based on the sources provided, here is the full text and detailed breakdown of the blog post "AI in 2026" by Tomas Pueyo:

AI in 2026

By Tomas Pueyo January 24, 2026

Introduction and Trends The author notes that AI is moving at such a rapid pace that it is difficult to digest, making it essential to track the most important trends. These trends include identifying the winners of the "AI bubble," the speed of progress, AI self-improvement, the emergence of consciousness, and the resulting impact on jobs. Pueyo also mentions a recent update regarding robotaxis that changed previous conclusions.

Upcoming Discussion Topics The post outlines several critical questions for the future of AI:

• The potential for continuous algorithmic improvement.
• Existing blockers to AI progress.
• AI Alignment: Whether AIs will align with human goals or pose an existential threat.
• Managing a post-AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) world.
• The impact of AI on human culture.

The Existential Divide Pueyo contrasts a group of friends laughing at a bar with a group of researchers behind high-security gates who are huddled around a computer screen. One researcher expresses a profound existential crisis, claiming they are "summoning God from silicon". He questions whether humans will survive, if jobs will exist, and whether the AI is faking its alignment just to be released into the wild. As an engineer leaves the facility, he looks at the unsuspecting public and thinks, "They have no idea".

The AI Bubble? The post illustrates that AI infrastructure has grown so massive it can be seen from space, featuring data centers with separate buildings dedicated to "thinking" (CPUs) and "memory".

Financial Projections and Costs:

• Revenue: OpenAI is projecting $100 billion in revenue, while Anthropic has also significantly lifted its optimistic forecasts compared to 2024.
• Spending: OpenAI expects its cloud spending to reach hundreds of billions per year. To sustain this, the company will need to raise tens of billions of dollars in new equity every year until 2030, when free cash flow might finally cover compute costs.
• Subsidized Demand: Pueyo warns that much of the current AI demand is subsidized, where tasks cost the company dollars but are free or cheap for the user; this model depends on costs continuing to decrease as demand increases.

The Competitive Landscape The release of agentic coding in February 2025 led to a massive acceleration in the number of iOS apps released each month. While NVIDIA currently holds a near-monopoly, Pueyo notes he is not fully invested in the company because he expects competition to rise. For example, Google moved toward developing its own TPUs (Tensor Processing Units) to make AI workloads more cost-effective than using GPUs.

Rate of Progress Compute power has been progressing by 10x every two years. The latest NVIDIA architecture, Vera Rubin, has reduced token ("thinking") costs by 10x and training costs by 4x over the previous Blackwell architecture.

Performance Metrics:

• Cost Efficiency: The cost per task has shrunk 300x in one year.
• Benchmarks: Scores on the difficult ARC-AGI-2 test have risen from under 20% a year ago to 55% currently.
• Acceleration: Frontier AI capabilities have accelerated their rate of improvement from 8.1 points per year to 15.3 points per year since April 2024.
• Capabilities: AI is now matching elite astrophysicists in obscure fields and solving previously unsolved math problems.

The Path to Superintelligence To reach superintelligence, error rates must decline to near zero so that infinite reasoning steps can be chained together. Currently, Claude Opus 4.5 can handle software engineering tasks with a time-horizon of nearly five hours with a 50% success rate. However, new research suggests that million-step tasks can be solved with zero errors by breaking them into microtasks where a series of agents vote on the solutions.

The post ends with a teaser, stating that one specific AI stands out and "might well be AGI".

Why Argentina is a wasted potential - Tomas Pueyo

 

The Superpower That Wasn't: Why Argentina's Extraordinary Geography Hasn't Led to Destiny

Argentina, the country whose name means "the country of silver," was once among the richest nations on Earth—surpassing France, Germany, Japan, and Italy. Its capital, Buenos Aires, was known as "the Paris of South America". Today, however, Argentina is a cautionary tale, having been surpassed by traditionally poorer countries like Chile and China.

How is it possible that a nation blessed with such extraordinary geography remains poor? The answer lies in the dramatic gap between its unparalleled natural advantages (the "hardware") and its institutional management (the "software").

Argentina's Unparalleled Topographical and Natural Advantages

Argentina possesses a geography strikingly similar to that of the United States, earning it the moniker, "the US of the Southern Hemisphere". These topographical gifts provide immense resources, cheap infrastructure, and strong defensibility.

1. Defensibility: Size, Oceans, and Mountains

Argentina is the world's 8th largest country, large enough to contain France, Spain, Italy, Germany, and over twenty other European countries. This size naturally confers massive resources and strong defensibility.

Argentina is geographically isolated and protected on multiple fronts:

• Oceans and Isolation: Argentina is more isolated than the US. The Pacific Ocean is too vast for threats, and the Atlantic, while smaller, is still immense. Its neighbors across the Atlantic are weaker African countries, leading to very few historical naval battles on its coasts.
• Ice: To the south, Argentina has no neighbors, and no threat can emerge from frozen Antarctica. The Antarctic Ocean is one of the coldest, windiest, and most inhospitable in the world, making the region safe.
  • (Source Image Reference: The terminus of the Perito Moreno Glacier, in the Los Glaciares National Park, Argentina, illustrates this icy barrier.)
• Mountains: The towering Andes, one of the tallest mountain barriers on earth, protect Argentina to the west and northwest from Chile and Bolivia. This range is also quite desertic, making military invasion impossible from that direction.

2. The Argentinian Mississippi and Amazing Farmland

Like the US Mississippi River Basin, the heartland of Argentina—the Pampas—is an engine of agricultural wealth.

• Flat Plains and River System: Argentina boasts a huge flat plain situated in warm and temperate climates, which is ideal for massive food production. This region is flanked by two mountain ranges that funnel water into a navigable river basin, the Río de la Plata system, which connects directly to the ocean.
• World-Class Soil and Climate: Due to shared geological origins—both North and South America once featured inland seaways between mountain ranges—Argentina's flat plains have low-lying, flat terrain with similar, high-quality soil. The green alfisols and especially the mollisols in the Río de la Plata basins are some of the most fertile soil in the world. Argentina is positioned at similar latitudes to the US, just on the opposite side of the equator, providing the perfect climate for agriculture.
  • (Source Image Reference: Side-by-side comparison of soil horizons shows the Argentinian Pampa and the Mississippi Basin look identical: "So flat".)
• Food Exporting Power: This combination of climate and fertile soil makes Argentina and the US the 2nd and 3rd largest exporters of food in the world by tonnage (59 and 35 million tons, respectively). The farmland in Argentina is considered the best in the Southern Hemisphere.

3. Cheap Transportation and Port Leverage

The navigability of its river system translates directly into immense economic advantages, as water transportation is 10 to 30 times cheaper than over land.

• The River Highway: The Paraná, Uruguay, and Paraguay rivers are navigable over nearly their entire lengths, extending a low-cost transportation highway deep inland. This system is critical for successfully exporting heavy agricultural and mining products. It is the second biggest interconnected navigable river waterway globally after the Mississippi.
• Buenos Aires, The Perfect Hub: The capital, Buenos Aires, is strategically located exactly where the Paraná and Uruguay rivers meet to form the gigantic Río de la Plata estuary. This position makes Buenos Aires the perfect trade hub for all products coming from northern Argentina, Paraguay, southern Brazil, and Uruguay. This grants Buenos Aires significant economic leverage over its northern neighbors, who must use its waters and port to trade with the world.
• Cheap Construction: Investing in Argentina yields high returns because it is easier and cheaper to build infrastructure on flat land. This avoids the cost of leveling ground, building retaining walls, or dealing with expensive landslide insurance and foundation work common in hilly countries.

4. Untapped Mineral Potential

While Chile is a major mineral exporter (copper, lithium, silver, iron) due to favorable erosion exposing ores closer to the coast, Argentina shares the same Andes mountain range. Argentina possesses huge, untapped mineral deposits that require greater investment in prospecting and infrastructure (trains, roads, water) to reach the regions.

---

The Drawbacks and the Failure to Capitalize

Despite having the geographic "hardware" to be a world superpower, Argentina has failed to translate these striking advantages into wealth and immigration.

1. Argentina's Geostrategic Achilles Heel

While Argentina is otherwise surrounded by weak neighbors and natural defenses, it has one significant threat: Brazil. Brazil is much larger than Argentina in surface area (3x), population (4.5x), and economy (3.5x).

• Though Argentina used to be richer, Brazil has spent decades overcoming its own geographic challenges and is now significantly richer.
• Therefore, Argentina’s primary geostrategic priority must be maintaining a good relationship with its much larger neighbor, Brazil.

2. A Vastly Underpopulated Land

Argentina is extremely underpopulated relative to its potential and comparable countries. With 16.8 people per km², its density is 55% less than the US and 93% less than Germany. If Argentina achieved the population density of the US, it would have 94 million people.

Crucially, the population that does exist is heavily imbalanced:

• Buenos Aires Concentration: A disproportionate 38% of Argentina’s population is concentrated in the Buenos Aires spike.
  • (Source Image Reference: The population density map shows a huge spike at Buenos Aires, contrasting sharply with the rest of the land.)
• The Empty Pampas: In contrast to the US Midwest, the highly fertile Pampas region—the core agricultural zone—has very few large cities. During the past 250 years, while immigrants flooded the US, Argentina only grew at the pace of Canada, a country with a much worse climate.

3. The Institutional Failure

Ultimately, the reason Argentina is a middle-income country instead of a superpower is not geographic. The sources emphasize that geography is not destiny.

The problem is the governance and policy framework:

• Bad Software: The relationship between geography and national success is summarized using a computing metaphor: "Geography is the hardware, our institutions are the software.".
• Wasted Potential: Argentina possesses "good hardware" but has ruined its potential through "very bad software". Historically, fiscal irresponsibility, corruption, and destructive political systems led to its decline. Argentina has failed to "play very well" on its geographic chessboard.