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Red Stars Rising: China's Communist Party Faces a Generational Shift

 Will rising officials be freer thinkers than older ones?

Key Political Context & The Upcoming Central Committee Gathering

• Next year, at the five-yearly Communist Party congress, the country's leadership until 2032 will be confirmed. While Xi Jinping's supreme position is secure, hundreds of senior roles below him are up for grabs.

• A gathering of roughly 370 leaders forming the party's Central Committee was scheduled from October 26th to 29th. Officially, they are set to discuss "full and rigorous party self-governance" (obedience to Mr. Xi), while privately pondering a generational shift in Chinese politics.

• Rising stars in the provinces and Beijing are known as the seventh generation of party leaders. Born in the late 1960s and 1970s, they are the first generation with few or no memories of the Mao era. Their formative years occurred during the 1980s opening-up period.

The Generational Numbering System and the Wreckage of the Sixth Generation

• In Chinese politics, Mao Zedong led the first generation, and pragmatic reformer Deng Xiaoping is described as the second generation. Mr. Xi belongs to the fifth generation (mainly born in the 1950s). By post-Deng norms, he should have stepped down in favor of the sixth generation (born in the 1960s).

• Instead, Mr. Xi abolished presidential term limits and stayed on. His anti-corruption campaign dismantled sixth-generation patronage networks, arresting or sidelining those once tipped for leadership and purging perhaps a fifth of the Central Committee's voting members over five years.

• Amid this wreckage, seventh-generation figures are rising. Notable examples include:

  • Zhu Zhongming (54): Appointed acting mayor of Shanghai in August, making him a shoo-in for the Politburo if he becomes city party chief.

  • Liu Jie (56): Governor of Zhejiang.

  • A Dong (55): First secretary of the Communist Youth League.

• Normal retirement rules (65 for senior officials, 68 for Politburo members) suggest two-thirds of the current Central Committee will step down, raising the proportion of seventh-generation officials to over 40%.

Profile of the Seventh Generation

• Education & Background: Unlike previous generations, they avoided massive educational disruption during the Cultural Revolution (1966–1976). A study by Li Cheng found over half of the top 100 seventh-generation officials hold PhDs, with a third studying engineering, finance, or economics.

• International Exposure: Many spent significant time abroad (e.g., Beijing mayor Yin Yong has a Harvard master's; Guo Ningning worked in Hong Kong and Singapore). They are also more likely to have served as business leaders in state-owned enterprises.

• Weak Revolutionary Ties: Unlike Mr. Xi—whose father fought alongside Mao and who spent seven years "sent down" to a poor village—the seventh generation came of age in the 1980s during China's most intellectually liberal window since the 1950s.

• The 1989 Threshold: Many were the same age as the pro-democracy demonstrators in Tiananmen Square when that window of openness ended violently in 1989. While heavily socialized and vetted by the party, their early exposure to open-minded thinking distinguishes them from subsequent generations.

Succession Outlook and Future Prospects

• All but one member of the current Politburo Standing Committee (aside from Mr. Xi) are old enough to retire at the upcoming 21st party congress.

• While Mr. Xi is unlikely to empower a very young official as an heir-apparent immediately, the calculus may change by the 22nd congress when Mr. Xi will be 79. Former CIA analyst Jonathan Czin notes that passing the baton to someone in their 50s or 60s makes more sense than choosing someone who is already 70.

• However, this transition could introduce turbulence, as Mr. Xi may have to select a successor with whom he has had relatively little time to build trust, potentially cycling through multiple heirs-apparent much like Mao and Deng did.

China’s billionaires in the age of China Shock 2.0

 Here is a comprehensive reproduction and structured summary of the text from Chartbook 482: China’s billionaires in the age of China Shock 2.0 by Adam Tooze:

1. Introduction: Oligarchs, Global Wealth, and "Walled-In Wealth"

• Global Oligarchic Influence: Around 3,500 people worldwide are worth over USD 1 billion, holding roughly 3–3.5% of global wealth. Although a small group, their technological wagers, business bets, and political alignments exert an outsized influence on contemporary reality.

• Ultra-High Net Worth Context: In 2025, the world's richest 1.5% owned 48.4% of global wealth (roughly USD 251 trillion), requiring a net worth of over USD 1 million (comprising 7–8 million adults worldwide). Those worth USD 100 million or more number between 30,000 and 100,000, while super-billionaires with fortunes exceeding USD 50 billion number around 30 globally.

• "Walled-In Wealth": While mega-wealth often drives the "offshore" world (e.g., the Cayman Islands), the vast majority of business remains framed by nation-states and jurisdictions. Nowhere is this clearer than in China, a giant economy bounded by capital accounts and foreign exchange controls—a phenomenon termed "walled-in wealth".

2. The Hurun China Rich List 2026: Methodology and Overall Findings

• Background: The Hurun Rich List, named after Rupert Hoogewerf (Hu Run), has tracked Chinese wealth since 1999 (and India since 2012). The 28th edition serves as a vital historical source on the evolution of Chinese wealth.

• Methodology: Valuing China’s richest combines art and science. Researchers cross-reference data with entrepreneurs, local governments, industry experts, journalists, bankers, regulators, and historical databases. For non-listed companies, valuations rely on prevailing industry Price/Earnings (P/E) ratios compared with listed equivalents.

• Scale: Hurun identified 1,529 individuals in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan with more than CNY 5 billion (equivalent to USD 740 million).

• Key Milestone: Chinese personal wealth is back on the rise; the list is the longest in survey history, surpassing the previous peak of 1,460 set in 2021. China now boasts 1,176 dollar billionaires, surpassing the United States (which hovers around 1,000).

3. A Two-Speed Economy: The Sectors Driving Wealth

The record-breaking wealth figures occurred in a year where 911 individuals saw their wealth fall or stand still, compared to 785 risers, reflecting a distinct two-speed economy.

Top 10 Individuals on the 2026 List

1. Zhang Yiming (ByteDance) – USD 99.7bn (+43%)

2. Zhong Shanshan (YST / Nongfu Spring) – USD 61.0bn (-23%)

3. Zeng Yuqun (CATL) – USD 57.3bn (+17%)

4. Ma Huateng (Tencent) – USD 51.5bn (-26%)

5. He Xiangjian & family (Midea) – USD 46.1bn (+12%)

6. Chen Jianhua & Fan Hongwei (Hengli) – USD 44.9bn (+59%)

7. Liang Wenfeng (DeepSeek) – USD 41.7bn (New)

8. Ding Lei (NetEase) – USD 40.9bn (-14%)

9. Li Ka-shing & Victor Li Tzar Kuoi (Cheung Kong) – USD 37.6bn (+8%)

10. Chen Tianshi (Cambricon) – USD 30.5bn (+14%)

Key Technological Drivers

• Artificial Intelligence (AI): AI is the single biggest wealth engine, with 160 rich-listers making their money from AI. Zhang Yiming’s surge was driven by ByteDance’s push into AI. DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng (41) entered at Number 7 (USD 41.7bn), and AI chipmaker Cambricon's Chen Tianshi entered the Top 10 (USD 30.5bn). Other prominent players include ChangXin Memory (Zhu Yiming), Moonshot AI, Zhipu, and MiniMax.

• Robotics & "Embodied Intelligence": 80 rich-listers derive their fortunes from robotics. DJI pioneer Frank Wang Tao leads with USD 16.4bn. Unitree humanoid-robot maker Wang Xingxing (36) debuted with USD 10.3bn following an explosive August IPO.

• New Energy & Storage: Around 100 rich-listers made their fortunes from renewable energy and storage. Battery giant Robin Zeng Yuqun (CATL) moved to third with USD 57.3bn. Storage inverter makers like Deye (Zhang Hejun) and Sungrow (Cao Renxian & Su Lei) capitalized on global demand from blackout-prone emerging markets.

• High-End Equipment & Machinery: Reflecting the "China Shock 2.0" manufacturing narrative, Chen Jianhua & Fan Hongwei (Hengli) entered the Top 10 with USD 44.9bn, driven by shipyard acquisitions and massive global demand for green-fuel replacement vessels. Machinery makers like Sany, Hengli Hydraulic, and Estun are displacing historical European, Japanese, and Korean industrial heavyweights.

4. Geography of Wealth: The Rise of Shenzhen

• Shenzhen has emerged as the main cluster of extreme wealth in China with 177 individuals (+30), fueled by its semiconductor, AI, and robotics ecosystems.

• Shanghai followed with 161 individuals (+9), Beijing with 140 (-6), and Hong Kong with 102 (+3, passing 100 for the first time).

• The vast majority of these billionaires live and work in China, demonstrating Beijing's clear authority over their fortunes.

5. Industrial Breakdown, Policy, and Deflationary Pressures

• Industry Rankings by People: Industrial Products lead at 18.5%, followed by Consumer Products (9.7%), Healthcare (6.6%), Semiconductors (6.9%), Real Estate (5.6%), and Software Services (5.4%).

• Government Policy Imprint: Although entrepreneurs with a direct political voice make up only 5.7% of the list, state priorities heavily shape the outcomes. Technologies targeted by "Made in China 2025" and the subsequent five-year plans—such as AI, quantum tech, biomanufacturing, and commercial aerospace—serve as the foundation for the top fortunes. SpaceTech also debuted three rocket founders (Landspace, Space Pioneer, CAS Space).

• Real Estate Collapse: Property wealth has fallen on every list since the Evergrande crisis in 2021. For the first time ever, not a single mainland property developer remains in the Top 100.

• Consumer Giants & Deflation: Internet giants like Baidu's Robin Li (out of Top 100) and Jack Ma (out of Top 10) have faded from the limelight. Xiaomi's Lei Jun saw his wealth halve to USD 25.1bn amid fierce automotive price wars. Persisting consumer deflation has hit bottlers and brand owners, leaving small luxuries (bubble tea brands Chagee/Heytea and Laopu Gold) as rare consumer bright spots.

6. Global Exports and the Future Outlook

• Export "Born Globals": One-third of the list is tied to exports, underpinning China's nearly 30% share of global manufacturing value-add. Key examples include ByteDance/TikTok, BYD (overseas sales exceeding half of revenue), DJI, Insta360, Shein, and Transsion (Africa's top phone maker).

• Future Projections: China's first yuan trillionaires are expected within a decade (Zhang Yiming is already two-thirds of the way there). Future challengers include Liang Wenfeng, CZ Zhao (Binance), and Chen Tianshi.

7. Historical Context and Party-State Capitalism

• The Xi Jinping Era Threshold: The emergence of billionaire wealth coincides directly with Xi Jinping's rise to power. Between 2012 and 2013, average wealth in the top 1,000 crossed the USD 1 billion threshold. Since then, top-10 cut-off thresholds have multiplied fivefold.

• Intergenerational Wealth Transfer: Family wealth has officially entered a phase of large-scale inheritance. The list features 98 under-40 second-generation inheritors, while self-made under-30s are entirely absent.

• Governance Model: Before large-scale inheritance took hold, Beijing stamped its authority through anti-corruption drives, regulatory interventions, and industrial policy. This aligns with the "party-state capitalism" thesis (Pearson, Rithmire, Tsai), where the Party pivoted from the "Three Represents" toward a model of "grand steerage"—exercising control over a massive private economy via corporate governance, dispersed party cells, and macroeconomic steering.