The Golden Trade is Not Yet Crowded
SAFE HAVEN STILL HOLDS. Ratios, returns favour gold despite recent dip opening a buying window for long-term investors
By Kumar Shankar Roy, bl. research bureau
Till recently every geopolitical scare, dollar wobble and equity-market stumble pushed gold higher, taking it to record highs of $5,417 an ounce and ₹1.75 lakh per 10 gm by end-January. The subsequent correction — about 11 per cent in dollar terms and 14 per cent in rupee terms — has not materially altered the long-term case. Instead, it offers hesitant investors a more comfortable entry point this Akshaya Tritiya, when many households traditionally buy gold as a symbol of enduring wealth and prosperity.
The macro drivers — monetary debasement, geopolitical instability, fiscal excess, systemic stress and inflation risk — remain intact. For long-term investors, the decline looks more like a pause than a break. While gold bears and equity die-hards invoke the 1980s gold slump, here are 4 reasons why today’s fundamentals look different.
1. Gold-to-S&P 500 Ratio First, the gold-to-S&P 500 ratio — which measures how much of the S&P 500 one ounce of gold can buy — offers a simple gauge of whether bullion is expensive or cheap relative to equities. At about 0.7 today, the ratio suggests gold is strong, but not historically over-owned even though the absolute price level may appear expensive. In the inflation-scarred 1970s, the ratio crossed 2.5 at end-1974 and exploded to 7.5-7.6 in January 1980 during gold’s great blow-off. By contrast, during the post-2000 equity boom and the AI-led stock surge of 2024, the ratio was mostly stuck near 0.4-0.5. Gold still appears well below the euphoric extremes typical of crisis regimes, suggesting room for further outperformance.
CONTEXT MATTERS 2. Resilience Against Setbacks Second, gold’s recent decline does not signal that the bull case is broken. From its January 28, 2026 peak of $5,417, the metal fell as much as 19.2 per cent by March 26, before narrowing the drawdown to about 10.8 per cent by April 17. Gold has repeatedly absorbed such sharp setbacks; in the mid-1970s, it slumped over 44 per cent before reaching its 1980 top. The current decline looks less like a broken trade and more like a correction within an ongoing cycle.
3. Different Equity Backdrop Third, the MCX gold-to-Nifty ratio is elevated, but the equity environment is different than previous peaks. In March 2009, when the ratio climbed to 6, the Nifty’s trailing P/E was just 9.2 times, meaning equities were cheap. By contrast, the ratio touched 6.9 on January 29, 2026, with the Nifty still trading at a high 23.7 times trailing earnings. As of April 17, the ratio was still around 6.2 with a Nifty P/E of 22.6, providing no convincing evidence that gold will underperform stocks.
STRONG TRACK RECORD 4. Superior Capital Protection Fourth, history suggests gold is not a "poor cousin" to equities. Across 20 comparable one-year holding periods since 2007, gold delivered an average return of 15.9 per cent against 11.8 per cent for the Nifty 50. More importantly, gold protected capital better in difficult years; its worst period saw a fall of 11 per cent, compared to a 32 per cent decline for the Nifty. Over the full sample, gold rose from ₹9,372 per 10 grams to ₹1,51,097 — a gain of roughly 16 times, while the Nifty 50 rose a little over six times.
Veteran investor Ray Dalio recently noted that a well-diversified portfolio should hold roughly 10-15 per cent in gold, arguing it is unique because, unlike financial assets, it is not someone else’s liability.
High hopes
INDEX OUTLOOK. Any intermediate dips will be short-lived
By Gurumurthy K, bl. research bureau
The Nifty 50, Sensex and the Nifty Bank index extended their rise for the second consecutive week, with all three indices up about 1.2 per cent each. The mid and small-cap segments significantly outperformed the benchmark indices, as the Nifty Smallcap 250 and the Nifty Midcap 150 indices surged 4.36 per cent and 3.5 per cent, respectively. Although the week began negatively with a wide gap-down, the indices managed to bounce back immediately and sustain higher levels, signaling that buyers are entering the markets at lower levels. This recovery keeps the overall bullish view intact, suggesting benchmark indices are likely to go higher in the coming weeks, and any intermediate dips will likely be short-lived.
FPIs BUY Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) snapped a six-week selling spree last week, becoming net buyers of Indian equities with a net inflow of approximately $514 million. It remains to be seen if this purchasing trend will continue.
NIFTY 50 (24,353.55)
- Short-term view: Nifty may rise to test the 24,500-24,650 resistance cluster this week. While failure to breach 24,650 initially could trigger a corrective fall to 24,100-24,000 or 23,800, a fall below 23,800 is considered unlikely. A breakout above 24,650 could take the index to 24,900-25,000 and eventually 25,500.
- Medium-term view: The strong bounce strengthens the broader bullish view, with Nifty potentially rising to 26,500 in the medium term. A decisive break above this level could eventually target 28,000 and 30,000 in the long term.
NIFTY BANK (56,565.70)
- Short-term view: Immediate resistance is at 56,900, with the next hurdle at 58,000. The index is expected to initially test 58,000 before a possible corrective fall to 56,000. Eventually, a rise to 60,000-60,500 is likely.
- Medium-term view: A strong weekly close above 60,500 will clear the way for a rise to 64,000-65,000. From a long-term perspective, the Nifty Bank index has the potential to target 68,000-69,000.
SENSEX (78,493.54)
- Short-term view: Strong supports are at 77,450 and 76,900. The index could rise to 80,000 first, and a break above that could lead to 82,000.
- Medium-term view: The level of 83,000 is an important intermediate resistance. A break above it could take the Sensex to 86,000 or even 90,000 in the medium term, opening the door for a long-term target of 98,000.
NIFTY MIDCAP 150 (22,045.20) A decisive close above 21,650 last week strengthens the bullish case, and a rise to 22,700-23,000 is possible in the coming weeks. An eventual break above 23,000 could take the index to 26,000-26,500 initially and 28,000-28,500 in the long term.
NIFTY SMALLCAP 250 (16,439.25) Immediate resistances are at 16,580 and 16,650. A rise from supports at 15,800 or 15,500 could trigger a breakout above 16,650, taking the index to 17,500 initially and 18,300 eventually. Decisively breaching 18,300 could lead to a rally toward 22,500-23,000 in the long term.
NEAR-TERM RESISTANCES
- Nifty 50: 24,500, 24,650
- Sensex: 79,200, 80,000
- Nifty Bank: 56,900, 58,000
Bourses break a barrier
US MARKET OUTLOOK. Surge last week strengthens momentum for rise
By Gurumurthy K, bl. research bureau
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite index have surged for the third consecutive week. The Dow Jones and the S&P 500 were up 3.2 per cent and 4.5 per cent, respectively. The NASDAQ Composite index went up by 6.84 per cent. In the last three weeks, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 have rallied 9.5 per cent and 11.9 per cent, while the NASDAQ has surged 16.8 per cent. The danger of seeing a fall-back stands negated now.
DOW JONES (49,447.43) The rise above 48,900 last week is a very positive sign. The Dow Jones can test 49,900-50,000 this week. Failure to breach 50,000 on its first test can trigger a corrective fall to 49,000-48,500. From a big-picture perspective, 48,500-48,000 is a strong support zone, and the bullish view will remain intact as long as the index stays above 48,000.
S&P 500 (7,126.06) The index has surged well above the psychological mark of 7,000. However, a crucial resistance is around 7,200. Failure to break this resistance and a subsequent fall below 7,100 can drag the index down to 6,950 in the coming weeks. A strong and sustained rise above 7,200 is needed to target 7,600 in the coming months.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE (24,468.48) The index has risen well above the crucial resistance level of 24,000. It is important for the NASDAQ Composite to sustain above the 24,000-23,950 support zone. A break below 23,950 could lead to a fall-back to 23,000-22,800.
DOLLAR OUTLOOK The dollar index (98.23) touched a low of 97.63 last week and then bounced. The daily chart signals an absence of fresh sellers below 98, leaving the near-term bias positive. Resistance is in the 98.60-98.70 region, and a break above it can take the index to 99.30-99.50. Selling pressure will only intensify if the index declines below 97.50.
TREASURY YIELD The US 10Yr Treasury Yield (4.25 per cent) is struggling to get a sustained break above 4.3 per cent. This leaves the yield vulnerable to a break below 4.2 per cent, potentially falling to 4.15 per cent or even 4.1 per cent in the coming weeks, before a likely rise back toward 4.25 per cent.
How to stay afloat when your paycheque suddenly stops
Individuals should maintain at least six months of expenses, including EMIs, though a more conservative range could extend up to 2-3 years — Venkateswaran Muthukrishnan
By Gayathri G and Anjana C Shriram
As layoffs become more frequent across sectors, financial preparedness is moving from a “good-to-have” to a necessity. Planners say the difference between stress and stability often comes down to liquidity, insurance cover, and disciplined investing. Venkateswaran Muthukrishnan, Partner, Marina Wealth, outlines practical steps to help households navigate sudden income disruptions.
The BL Interview: Venkateswaran Muthukrishnan
What is the ideal emergency corpus individuals should maintain today? There is no one-size-fits-all number. The ideal corpus depends on factors such as risk appetite, age, job stability, and financial commitments. As a baseline, individuals should maintain at least six months of expenses, including EMIs, though a more conservative range could go up to 2-3 years.
What are the first financial steps one should take within the first week of losing a job? Start with a detailed review of expenses—identify essential and non-essential outflows and eliminate avoidable spends, especially auto-debits. Check whether employer-provided health insurance continues during the notice period and secure independent coverage if needed. Submit any pending reimbursements and clear high-interest liabilities such as credit card dues.
Which expenses should be prioritised, and what should be cut first? Households should prioritises essentials such as housing, food, education, and healthcare. Discretionary spends—like multiple OTT subscriptions, unused memberships, or low-utility services—should be the first to go.
How should individuals approach ongoing EMIs after a sudden income disruption? If supported by an emergency corpus, most EMIs can continue. Otherwise, liabilities should be categorised. “Good” EMIs, such as home or vehicle loans, should be maintained, while “bad” debt—like credit card dues or personal loans—should be prioritised for repayment.
Would you recommend restructuring loans, using savings, or liquidating investments? Investments should typically be evaluated first, followed by savings. Critically evaluate current investments and bucket them into core and non-core. It is a good opportunity to re-evaluate life insurance policies or real estate and, after consulting an advisor, exit or utilize them to pay off or restructure loans.
Should individuals pause SIPs or redeem investments during a layoff? This is case-specific, but the general thumb rule is to stop SIPs to conserve cash. Redemption decisions should depend on liquidity needs, the nature of investments, and available buffers. Liquid instruments like fixed deposits and mutual funds are typically redeemed first.
What are common financial mistakes people make after losing a job? Becoming overly risk-averse and shifting entirely to low-return assets, chasing high-yield but risky investments, lending money to others despite uncertain liquidity, and making discretionary big-ticket purchases. Prepaying long-term loans prematurely is another frequent error as it reduces liquidity.
LAYOFF IMPACT: Personal Accounts
Sudden layoffs are exposing how high salaries and marquee roles do not necessarily come with enough financial cushion. Steady income can quickly mask vulnerability when households carry fixed obligations but lack a deep emergency buffer.
- Jagadeesh Srinivas (Finance Professional): This 39-year-old Chennai-based professional was earning ₹30 lakh annually before being laid off. He manages monthly EMIs exceeding ₹1 lakh for home, car, and personal loans. While he had built a corpus of ₹15-20 lakh, it was spent on his sister’s recent wedding. With current funds, he estimates he can only stay comfortable for about two months.
- Ritu Jayapurkar (Software Engineer): With three years of experience and earning ₹10 lakh, she had been investing 40-50 per cent of her income. After a recent layoff, she has paused all investment decisions to focus on finding a new job. She plans to use her savings and severance package to remain in Pune during her search.
- Vishal Mathur (Fintech Professional): A sole earner for a family of five, Mathur faced redundancy in late 2025 despite delivering a key project. He secured an internal role by February 2026, avoiding job loss. He spends ₹50,000-75,000 monthly on therapy for his child with ADHD, which, along with other expenses, absorbs most of his ₹3 lakh monthly salary.
- Dheeraj Pandya (Software Professional): Based in San Francisco, Pandya was laid off in September 2025. The family outgo is $16,000 monthly for two homes and two cars. The shock was compounded by his stock options falling from $350 to $130 per share. They have cut discretionary spending and travel sharply to manage cash flow.
- Bhargav Ramesh (Software Professional): Ramesh was earning ₹19 lakh annually before his layoff. While he has no outstanding loans, he and his wife spent ₹9 lakh on IVF treatment over the last 18 months, which prevented them from building an emergency fund. He is currently upskilling and estimates his family can manage for about seven months with current funds.
Defeated Delimitation Bill to defend ‘idea of India’, says Rahul Gandhi
Press Trust of India | Chennai
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi on Saturday said the opposition parties defeated the Delimitation Bill in the Parliament on Friday to defend the “idea of India,” as he mounted an attack against the RSS-BJP.
Addressing a poll rally at Ponneri, his first campaign for the April 23 Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu, Gandhi said the BJP-led government at the Centre had brought a new Bill on April 16, and said they were trying to pass the women’s reservation Bill, which he said was adopted in 2023.
WEAKENING SOUTH
“In the so-called women’s reservation Bill, delimitation was hidden. The idea was to reduce Tamil Nadu’s representation in the Union of India... the delimitation move by the BJP was to weaken the strength of southern, small, and north-eastern States,” he alleged.
Gandhi said that India that is Bharat, is a union of states, and every single State should have a voice, be free to express itself, and protect its tradition. At the rally he said, “election is first an ideological battle, second, political fight; it is coercion versus consensus.” Slamming the BJP, Gandhi alleged that the party wanted an India “where two or three companies control everything.” It wanted to “crush the ideas of rationalist leader EV Ramasamy Periyar, your model of government, and destroy the idea of social justice,” he alleged and appealed to the people to “stop this assault by RSS-BJP”.
He also lashed out at BJP ally in TN, the AIADMK, saying it was not the same party that strived for the people of the State. “When you see the AIADMK flag, its leaders, remember they are fully controlled by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and (Union Home Minister) Amit Shah because of their corruption. New AIADMK is just a mask; the mask hiding BJP,” he alleged.
AIADMK, ONLY A SHELL
Flaying the Dravidian party, which leads the NDA in Tamil Nadu, the Congress leader said the AIADMK was “now a hollow shell.” It had a great tradition of defending the people of Tamil Nadu like the DMK, but that “AIADMK died long back”, he said. He also accused the AIADMK of allowing the BJP to rule the State from Delhi, and take the orders from Amit Shah and Modi.
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