In this analysis we explore how the Covid 19 pandemic impacted the reproductive choices In NY region. First the economic and health shocks to the city were much larger and precipitous than the rest of the US.Second, NY City has been the entry point for foreign nationals.49% of all births in NY city were to foreign born nationals.If decreased immigration and not pandemic has led to the decrase in births then there should little deviation in birth rates of US born women. Thirs we have data to indicate whether the change in behavior like induced abortions led to the change.Fourth analysing the data by month of conception which could suggest any patterns in reproductive behavior.
Based on the data, it is found that the borths of NY residents that were privately financed did not deviate from the trend till nov'20. Wehn we plot these by month of conception the abrupt drop happens in Mar'20. The percent of births to NY residents delivered outside the city jumped from 6 to 12 percent and was concentrated among affluent women. Finally we report a steep drop in induced terminations (abortions). This would usually tend to increased births but the decline is also concistent with fewer conceptions.All totalled the precipitous drop in brths in New York Cioty in the early phase of the pandemic and it srapid rebound is ocncistent with the parallel spike in deaths and economic shutdown in Covid 19.
The results of the data shows that the decline in birth rates was much greater in the NY city than among the women in the rest of the country.The birth rates of NY resident women was 22 percent below the projected trend at their trough in Dec20.It also masked a much larger difference by nativity where the foreign born women fell sharply as compared to their US counterparts.
The sharp drop and rapid recovery in borth rates to NY city appears more closely linked to the perceived health risk than the unemployment rate. This is evidenced in the analysis of the month of conception which had the largest drop in Mar'20. Also further stratification of the data suggests that the birth rates of NY residents outside the city increased among affluent women
Conclusion : The spike in death due to Covid 19 , the extreme economic contraction and the intense public health response in New York City were more sudden and more extreme than in the rest of the US. The severity of the shock made possible the disentanglement of the pre-existing trends in fertility from changes in repsonse to the pandemic. We could not definitively identify whether the abrupt drop in borths was due to the fear of Covid 19 or the uncertain consequences from the economic shutdown and its indeterminate length. Yet the simultaneous spikes in deaths and drop in conceptions along with their brief duration suggested that people responded more to the unknown health risks than the economic contraction. This reponse was consistent with fall in birth rates following the outbreaks of Ebola and Zika.
Also unclear was whether the dramtic fall in induced terminations prevented an even greater fall in births than was observed. Women, for example may have used medication abortion to avoid a sugical procedure or couples may have practiced more effective contraception to prevent unintended pregnancies. The rapid rebound in births is more difficult to be attributed to the reversal of negative health shocks. The changes in fertility that occured in NY were sudden, large but brief.
From the research paper published by Daniel Dench,Wenhui Li,Theodore Joyce,Howard Minkoff,Gretchen Van Wye *****
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