Why are there no more protests in Russia

Sergey Radchenko on Twitter

On the question of why protests are breaking out in China and in Iran but *not* in Russia. This has nothing to do with any kind of predisposition for authoritarianism or some special degree of subservience that the Russians supposedly possess. Let's look at what's happening.

1. The most important factor is economic. Russians today are not doing great but in comparative terms - compared to where they were even twenty years ago - they are still fairly well off. Russian nominal GDP per capita today is 5 times what it was 20 years ago, more than $12,000.

The impact of sanctions is being felt, and inflation is going up, but this is really not the 1990s. In the 1990s, the town I lived in (in the Russian Far East) suffered daily blackouts and the absence of hot or, often, cold water, and no one was even bombing it.

2. Russia is a moderately repressive society. We know for instance that brave, honest activists like Navanly and Kara-Murza are in prison, and there are laws in place to put anyone behind bars for made-up reasons. But people can go much as before if they don't go out on a limb.

There is a certain degree of normality to life in Russia (unlike, say, in China since covid). So life goes on, more or less, as before. Except of course that some are being drafted to die in Ukraine. But - crucially - a relatively small number (still).

3. There is a degree of novelty to this situation. The war began in February - en eternity ago - but its reality has not quite sunk in. Partly, it's related to the above: life more or less goes on as before, and the war is something happening far away, not here and now.

4. Russia still allows people to leave. True, they can't go to Europe but those most opposed to the regime have been able to leave and restart their lives in places like Kazakhstan, Georgia, even Turkey and Mongolia. Russia is not a pressure cooker

5 (crucially). Putin has benefited from the rallying-around-the-flag effect, something denied to the Iranian and Chinese rulers. Although Russia has invaded Ukraine (not the other way around), there is a factor of us-vs-them in this war.

This has of course been helped by Western narratives about de-colonizing Russia, proclaiming it a terrorist state, banning all Russians from Europe, etc. Those who understand the problematic effect of these measures on Russia (including me) have long drawn attention to this.

So, no, I am not surprised that there are no large scale protests in Russia. Are you?