Market and Economic Indicators - Newspaper Summary

 The sources provide a detailed snapshot of Market and Economic Indicators in October 2025, revealing mixed signals regarding inflation and capital markets, set against the backdrop of significant strategic investment and policy shifts, particularly in technology, taxation, and renewable energy.

Market & Economic Indicators (October 2025)

1. Growth and Economic Outlook

India maintained its status as the world’s fastest-growing major economy. The sources indicate robust growth momentum:

• GDP and GVA: India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at 7.8% in the June quarter (Q1 of FY26), marking the fastest pace in five quarters. Gross Value Added (GVA), a measure excluding taxes and subsidies, expanded 7.6% in the same quarter.
• IMF Forecast: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised India's growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 6.6% for the financial year 2025-26 (FY26). This upward revision is due to a "carryover from a strong first quarter" that is seen as more than offsetting the impact of increased US tariffs on imports from India since July.
• Service Sector Strength: The GVA in the professional, scientific, and technical services sub-sector nearly tripled in the past decade, rising from approximately ₹30,000 crore in FY14 to ₹84,000 crore in FY24. India's Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) in professional and management consulting services in 2024 was 2.99, nearly three times the world average, showcasing its strength in high-skill service exports.

2. Inflation, Currency, and Commodities

Recent provisional data on inflation showed moderation, while currency markets faced pressure:

• Wholesale Price Index (WPI): WPI-based inflation eased significantly to 0.13% in September, down from 0.52% in August.
  • Food Prices: This decline was heavily influenced by food deflation, which turned negative at -1.99% in September (compared to 0.21% in August), led by lower prices for vegetables (which plummeted 24.4% year-over-year), wheat, pulses, and oilseeds.
  • Fuel Prices: The fuel and power segment recorded deflation of 2.6% in September, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline.
  • Core Inflation: Despite the overall moderation, core inflation (excluding food and fuel) rose to a 31-month high of 1.9%, primarily driven by a record jewellery price growth of 34.1%.
  • Q2 FY26 WPI: The WPI inflation rate was flat at 0.02% in the second quarter of FY26, an 8-quarter low, which is expected to result in muted GDP deflator growth and pressure on corporate margins.
• Currency: The rupee depreciated 12 paise to revisit its all-time low of ₹88.80 (provisional) against the US dollar on Tuesday, October 15, 2025. This slide was attributed to negative domestic equities and foreign fund outflows amid a global risk-off environment, though the decline was restricted by a dip in crude oil prices ($62.13) and reports of RBI intervention.
• Safe-Haven Assets: Gold and silver prices scaled fresh record highs on the domestic futures exchange (MCX). Gold futures (Dec delivery) climbed 1.84% to ₹1,26,930 per 10 grams, and silver futures (Dec delivery) surged 5.2% to ₹1,62,700 per kilogram. This surge was linked to renewed US-China trade tensions and the prospect of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, bolstering demand for safe-haven assets.

3. Capital Markets and Investment Activity

Equity markets showed a downward trend on October 15, 2025, while investment flows remained robust in strategic sectors:

• Equity Indices: Key Indian indices closed lower on October 15, 2025. The BSE Sensex closed at 82,029.98 (-0.36%), and the Nifty 50 closed at 25,145.50 (-0.32%). The BSE Small Cap index saw the steepest decline, closing 0.95% lower.
• IPO Performance: Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) in the first half of FY26 showed relatively better performance, with nearly half (49%) of the 55 listed stocks trading above their listing price. This improvement is attributed to more "rationally" priced IPOs.
• Corporate Debt: Bharti Telecom raised ₹10,500 crore by selling short-term bonds to refinance existing debt. State Bank of India (SBI) is set to issue up to ₹7,500 crore via 10-year tier-II bonds, which would be the first major domestic bond issuance by a public sector bank this financial year, signaling a return to the debt market.
• Specific Deal Flow: Morgan Stanley and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) initiated the sale process for Global Infrastructure Partners-owned Vena Energy India, a deal valued at around $1 billion, highlighting the steady flow of global capital into India’s clean energy market.

Context of Key Business & Policy Developments (Oct 2025)

The economic indicators are situated within major policy and business developments focusing on technological advancement, fiscal management, and trade relations.

Strategic Policy Focus: AI Infrastructure and Digital Services

The massive inflow of capital into technology infrastructure is a dominant business theme, crucial for supporting India's need to keep net FDI positive.

• Big Tech Investments: Announced AI infrastructure bets by Big Tech in India have reached $25 billion this year.
  • Google committed $15 billion over five years to establish its biggest AI hub outside the US in Visakhapatnam.
  • AWS announced a $6.8 billion outlay for data centers in Hyderabad.
  • Microsoft announced a $3 billion investment for cloud and AI infrastructure.
• TCS’s Pivot: Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) announced a massive $6.5 billion investment over six years to build 1 GW of new data center capacity, a strategic shift driven by the explosion of demand for high-speed computing and India's data localization rules. This capacity alone is enough to match India’s entire current data center base.
• IT Services Performance: Indian IT firms are adapting, with HCL Technologies reporting better-than-estimated Q2 FY26 revenue growth (2.4% sequentially in constant currency) and raising its IT services guidance to 4-5%. HCL also disclosed its advanced AI-led revenue at over $100 million in Q2. Infosys secured a major win by bagging a $1.6 billion contract with the UK's National Health Service (NHS).

Policy Management and Regulatory Frameworks

Policymakers are focused on implementation stability rather than immediate structural changes:

• GST Reforms on Hold: Central and state governments decided to maintain the existing Goods and Services Tax (GST) structure and rates as they assess the impact of recent reforms on revenue collection growth. Further structural changes, such as subsuming petroleum products (like crude oil, natural gas, petrol, diesel, and jet fuel) under GST, are unlikely soon. Policy focus remains on stepping up revenue buoyancy through process efficiency; for example, a simplified GST return system is planned for roll-out on November 1.
• Rural Distress and Spending: The government is reassessing the budget for the MGNREGA rural jobs scheme amid worsening distress following widespread floods across several states. While the allocation for FY26 remained unchanged at ₹86,000 crore, officials are evaluating if extra funds are needed, given that actual expenditure in FY24 reached ₹1.06 trillion.
• Energy Sector Policy: The draft Electricity (Amendment) Bill 2025 proposes measures like mandatory Renewable Purchase Obligations (RPOs) for state discoms and boosting competition by allowing multiple distributors to share existing networks. However, the policy faces potential resistance from states, particularly regarding the elimination of cross-subsidy charges levied on industries, which could strain the finances of discoms (which had a cumulative loss of ₹7 trillion as of FY25).
• Climate Finance Architecture: Despite ambitious climate goals requiring over $1.5 trillion by 2030, India lacks a unified institutional and financial architecture (such as a framework climate law and dedicated budget code) necessary to manage these funds transparently and efficiently.

Trade Dynamics and Sector-Specific Concerns

Global trade friction and domestic market conditions influenced specific sectors:

• Trade Relations: US President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes pose risks to India's export outlook. Meanwhile, the positive outcome of the 14th round of India-EU trade negotiations (October 10) has raised hopes that an India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is likely by December, granting Indian exporters duty-free access to Europe's $25 trillion economy.
• Sugar Exports: Despite a projected 15-18% jump in sugar production for the 2025-26 season, exports were not optimal in the previous 2024-25 season. Sugar mills prioritized local sales because domestic ex-mill prices (₹39,000–39,600 a tonne) were higher than net global export realizations (about ₹36,600 a tonne). Listed sugar companies performed better in the 2023-24 season when exports were banned, indicating that stable domestic prices are key to their earnings outlook.
• EV Manufacturing Policy: India's flagship electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing scheme, often dubbed the ‘Tesla scheme,’ is likely to get an extension past its October 21 deadline because no global automaker has yet shown interest in the incentive package. This highlights the difficulty in converting policy ambition into firm investment commitments, despite India remaining a favorable EV investment destination.