A time for truth and reconciliation
Trump’s return to the White House augurs the ‘apokálypsis’ of the ancien regime’s secrets
Peter Thiel
In 2016, President Barack Obama told his staff that Donald Trump’s election victory was “not the apocalypse”. By any definition, he was correct. But understood in the original sense of the Greek word apokálypsis, meaning “unveiling”, Obama could not give the same reassurance in 2025. Trump’s return to the White House augurs the apokálypsis of the ancien regime’s secrets. The new administration’s revelations need not justify vengeance — reconstruction can go hand in hand with reconciliation. But for reconciliation to take place, there must first be truth.
The apokálypsis is the most peaceful means of resolving the old guard’s war on the internet, a war the internet won. My friend and colleague Eric Weinstein calls the pre-internet custodians of secrets the Distributed Idea Suppression Complex (DISC) — the media organisations, bureaucracies, universities and government-funded NGOs that traditionally delimited public conversation. In hindsight, the internet had already begun our liberation from the DISC prison upon the prison death of financier and child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein in 2019. Almost half of Americans polled that year mistrusted the official story that he died by suicide, suggesting that DISC had lost total control of the narrative.
It may be too early to answer the internet’s questions about the late Mr Epstein. But one cannot say the same of the assassination of John F Kennedy. Sixty-five per cent of Americans still doubt that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone. Like an outlandishly postmodern detective story, we have waited 61 years for a denouement while the suspects — Fidel Castro, 1960s mafiosi, the CIA’s Allen Dulles — gradually die. The thousands of classified government files on Oswald may or may not be red herrings, but opening them up for public inspection will give America some closure.
We cannot wait six decades, however, to end the lockdown on a free discussion about Covid-19. In subpoenaed emails from Anthony Fauci’s senior adviser David Morens, we learnt that National Institutes of Health apparatchiks hid their correspondence from Freedom of Information Act scrutiny. “Nothing,” wrote Boccaccio in his medieval plague epic The Decameron, “is so indecent that it cannot be said to another person if the proper words are used to convey it.”
In that spirit, Morens and former chief US medical adviser Fauci will have the chance to share some indecent facts about our own recent plague. Did they suspect that Covid spawned from US taxpayer-funded research, or an adjacent Chinese military programme? Why did we fund the work of EcoHealth Alliance, which sent researchers into remote Chinese caves to extract novel coronaviruses? Is “gain of function” research a byword for a bioweapons programme? And how did our government stop the spread of such questions on social media?
Our First Amendment frames the rules of engagement for domestic fights over free speech, but the global reach of the internet tempts its adversaries into a global war. Can we believe that a Brazilian judge banned X without American backing, in a tragicomic perversion of the Monroe Doctrine? Were we complicit in Australia’s recent legislation requiring age verification for social media users, the beginning of the end of internet anonymity? Did we muster up even two minutes’ criticism of the UK, which has arrested hundreds of people a year for online speech triggering, among other things, “annoyance, inconvenience or needless anxiety”? We may expect no better from Orwellian dictatorships in East Asia and Eurasia, but we must support a free internet in Oceania.
Darker questions still emerge in these dusky final weeks of our interregnum. Venture capitalist Marc Andreessen recently suggested on Joe Rogan’s podcast that the Biden administration debanked crypto entrepreneurs. How closely does our financial system resemble a social credit system? Were an IRS contractor’s illegal leaks of Trump’s tax records anomalous, or should Americans assume their right to financial privacy hinges on their politics? And can one speak of a right to privacy at all when Congress conserves Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, under which the FBI conducts tens of thousands of warrantless searches of Americans’ communications?
South Africa confronted its apartheid history with a formal commission, but answering the questions above with piecemeal declassifications would befit both Trump’s chaotic style and our internet world, which processes and propagates short packets of information. The first Trump administration shied away from declassifications because it still believed in the rightwing deep state of an Oliver Stone movie. This belief has faded.
Our ancien regime, like the aristocracy of pre-revolutionary France, thought the party would never end. 2016 shook their historicist faith in the arc of the moral universe but by 2020 they hoped to write Trump off as an aberration. In retrospect, 2020 was the aberration, the rearguard action of a struggling regime and its struldbrugg ruler. There will be no reactionary restoration of the pre-internet past.
The future demands fresh and strange ideas. New ideas might have saved the old regime, which barely acknowledged, let alone answered, our deepest questions — the causes of the 50-year slowdown in scientific and technological progress in the US, the racket of crescendoing real estate prices, and the explosion of public debt.
Perhaps an exceptional country could have continued to ignore such questions, but as Trump understood in 2016, America is not an exceptional country. It is no longer even a great one.
Identity politics endlessly relitigates ancient history. The study of recent history, to which the Trump administration is now called, is more treacherous — and more important. The apokálypsis cannot resolve our fights over 1619, but it can resolve our fights over Covid-19; it will not adjudicate the sins of our first rulers, but the sins of those who govern us today. The internet will not allow us to forget those sins — but with the truth, it will not prevent us from forgiving.
INDIA IPPON DESU
Sunday, January 12, 2025
Tuesday, January 07, 2025
Sunday, January 05, 2025
52 Things I learned in 2024 : Ken Hendricks
Here are some of the most interesting things I learned this year:
1. Employees who use Firefox or Chrome have a 15% higher retention rate and report more satisfaction at work than employees who use Internet Explorer or Safari. This is because they’re less likely to accept the default way of doing things. (“What your web browser says about you“)
2. Doctors are 14% more likely to diagnose a child with ADHD on October 31, not because there are more kids with ADHD, but because the kids are excited to go trick-or-treating. (“Halloween, ADHD, and Subjectivity in Medical Diagnosis“)
3. It takes nine out of ten Americans to agree on a policy in order for it to have a 50% chance of being approved. (Affluence and Influence: Economic Inequality and Political Power in America)
4. When men feel their masculinity is threatened, they are 24 percentage-points more likely to want to buy an SUV. They are also willing to pay $7,320 more than non-threatened men for the same vehicle. (“Overdoing Gender: A Test of the Masculine Overcompensation Thesis“)
5. Swearing improves grip strength by 9%, wall sit time by 22%, and plank time by 12%. (“Effect of swearing on physical performance“)
6. Every culture has a word for black and white. If a culture has a third word for a color, it is always red. If it has a fourth word, it is either yellow or green. (Wikipedia)
7. Walking speed on the streets of New York, Boston, and Philadelphia has increased 15% since 1979. (“Shifting Patterns of Social Interaction: Exploring the Social Life of Urban Spaces Through A.I.“)
8. Indian Americans own about half of all motels in the United States. Of them, 70% have the last name Patel. (Life Behind the Lobby)
9. About 25% of the decline of casual sex among young men since 2007 can be explained by video games. (“Why Are Fewer Young Adults Having Casual Sex?“)
10. ChatGPT caused a 2% drop in the number of freelance jobs posted on Upwork. (“The Short-Term Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence on Employment: Evidence from an Online Labor Market“)
11. AI produces fewer greenhouse gas emissions than humans! Humans emit 27g of CO2 in the time it takes to write three hundred words. ChatGPT, however, performs the same task in 4.4 seconds and produces only 2.2g of CO2. (“The carbon emissions of writing and illustrating are lower for AI than for humans“)
12. Russia fined Google $20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 for blocking pro-Russia media channels on YouTube. The fine doubles each week it remains unpaid. After 219 weeks, Google will owe Russia a googol. (“Russia fined Google more than Earth’s entire GDP for a Millennium“)
13. For every 10% increase in missionaries to China from a Congressional district, a Congressman was 8% more likely to vote for foreign aid in subsequent decades. (“Missionaries and the Birth of International Development“)
14. In 2018, truckers in Maine received an extra $5 million in overtime pay because of the ambiguity created by the Oxford comma in a state law. (“Oxford Comma Dispute Is Settled as Maine Drivers Get $5 Million“)
15. After fluoride is introduced into a city’s drinking water, the number of dentist offices drops 9%. (“Equilibrium effects of public goods: The impact of community water fluoridation on dentists“)
16. Legalization of online sports betting generates an 8% increase in credit card debt among sports betters. The poor are disproportionately affected: low income households spend 32% more on betting than high income households. (“Gambling Away Stability: Sports Betting’s Impact on Vulnerable Households“)
17. Fidget spinners do not work. (“Putting a negative spin on it: Using a fidget spinner can impair memory for a video lecture“)
18. It takes twice as long to cook a chicken today compared to 100 years ago because twenty-first century chickens get less exercise. (The Essential New York Times Cookbook)
19. American baby names trends shifted from family names a century ago to popular names a generation ago to popular endings today. A generation of people named Jason has given way to babies with -son endings: Mason, Jackson, Grayson, and Carson. Today, 48% of the top 500 baby names share only ten endings. (“The mysterious tyranny of trendy baby names“)
20. Irish peacekeepers have been in Lebanon so long that some Lebanese are developing Irish accents. (“Irish peacekeepers stood their ground in the face of an Israeli invasion of Lebanon.“)
21. In 1985, a black bear in northern Georgia died from a cocaine overdose. It was stuffed and is now at the Kentucky Fun Mall in Lexington, Kentucky. Because of a loophole in Kentucky marriage law, it is allowed to perform legally binding weddings. (Wikipedia)
22. The Moon is part of the Diocese of Orlando, in accordance with the 1917 Code of Canon Law, which states that “any newly discovered territory was placed under the jurisdiction of the diocese from which the expedition which discovered that territory left.” (“Does the Church Have Jurisdiction Over the Moon?“)
23. Going to the moon was never popular. The only time a majority of Americans supported the Apollo program was right after the Apollo 11 landing, when 53% did. (“Public opinion polls and perceptions of US human spaceflight“)
24. Women are more likely to recommend shorter haircuts to clients they believe are as attractive or more attractive than themselves. (“Off with her hair: Intrasexually competitive women advise other women to cut off more hair“)
25. Heavy metal guitarists who play fast tend to have higher rates of intrasexual competitiveness, too. The main motivating factor behind becoming a heavy metal guitarist is not to impress women, but to impress other men. (“Extreme metal guitar skills linked to intrasexual competition, but not mating success“)
26. Pregnancy burns 50,000 calories. (Also, according to Claude, it also takes 50,000 calories to keep a small maple tree alive for one year; generate 12 pounds of honey; drive an electric car for 20 miles; run five marathons; heat a hot tub from room temperature to 104°; or dissipate the energy from a baseball-size meteor entering the upper atmosphere at 40,000mph. Happy Mothers Day!) “Metabolic loads and the costs of metazoan reproduction“)
27. Because they lose their hearing as they age, men over the age of twenty-five can’t hear noises higher than 17.4 kHz. Shopkeepers in the U.K. invented an alarm that plays 17.4 kHz at 100 decibels to drive away loiterers—mostly young men. (Eve: How the Female Body Drove 200 Million Years of Evolution)
28. By A.D. 750, because of copying errors and general forgetting-what-he-looked-like, the image of the Roman emperor on English coins evolved into a porcupine. (“Money, art, and representation: the powerful and pragmatic faces of medieval coinage“)
29. People overestimate others’ dishonesty by about 13.6%. (“Belief versus Reality: People Overestimate the Actual Dishonesty of Others”)
30. Vultures in India and Pakistan are dying from ingesting trace amounts of diclofenac, an anti-inflammatory given to cattle throughout India and Pakistan. Because of this, Zoroastrians burial rites, which require vultures, are under threat. (“‘Our culture is dying’: vulture shortage threatens Zoroastrian burial rites“)
31. The programming language C is 75.88 times more energy efficient than Python and 71.9 times faster. (“Ranking Programming Languages by Energy Efficiency“)
32. On average, spouses in the United States have genetic similarity equivalent to that between 4th and 5th cousins. (“We find that the genomes of observed spousal pairs are significantly more similar than that of opposite-sex pairs drawn from the same population. As a benchmark, the magnitude of this similarity roughly corresponds to the similarity between 4th and 5th cousins.”) (“Assortative mating at loci under recent natural selection in humans“)
33. Members of all-male groups are more prone to lying than groups comprised of both men and women. When the first woman joins an all-male group, the rate of lying plummets. (“Honesty of Groups: Effects of Size and Gender Composition“)
34. The requirement that homes be built at least 21 meters apart in parts of the UK dates back to a 1902 regulation drafted by two men who determined this was closest they could be to each other before they could see the other’s nipples through their shirts. (“Edwardian morals, Thatcher and bad design – why Britain’s homes are so hot“)
35. Men are more likely to order two hamburgers at McDonald’s when they order with a screen. When they order from a human, they tend to order only one. (Rory Sutherland)
36. A Massachusetts law requires that fortune tellers be licensed and prohibits “pretended fortune telling.” (“Massachusetts law about fortune tellers“) (via Marginal Revolution)
37. Baby simulators, originally intended to deter teenage pregnancy, actually made girls more likely to get pregnant. Girls who had a baby simulator had an 8% pregnancy rate compared to 4% for girls who didn’t. (“Efficacy of infant simulator programmes to prevent teenage pregnancy“)
38. In the 1990s, then-leader of North Korea, Kim Jong-ll, and current leader Kim Jong-Un got fake Brazilian passports and went to Disneyland in Tokyo (probably). (“North Korea and the Brazil passports: Why were they used by the Kims?“)
39. Negative TV coverage of gas prices starts when gas hits $3.50 per gallon. Each 50-cent increase in gas prices generates an additional 7.5 percentage points of coverage. Fox News covers gas prices most often. (“Bad news bias in gasoline price coverage“)
40. Car seats are not required on planes because it would reduce seat supply and raise fares, causing more families to drive. Because driving is more dangerous than flying, for every child a required car seat would save on an airplane, 60 would die in car accidents. (NTSB)
41. Each additional negative word in a news headline drives 2.3% more clicks. (“Negativity drives online news consumption“)
42. People know whether or not they want to buy a house in just 27 minutes, but it takes 88 minutes to decide on a couch. (“How long does it take to buy a house?“)
43. In 2019, the United States spent 1% of its federal budget on kidney dialysis. (“Patients vs. Profits: Who Wins in the Traditional U.S. Dialysis System?“)
44. In species where males invest in weaponry (antlers, horns, tusks, etc.), female brains are bigger. (“Brains vs Brawn: Relative brain size is sexually dimorphic amongst weapon-bearing ruminants“)
45. The first human object launched into space wasn’t Sputnik 1. It was actually a manhole cover accidently blown off test shaft during a nuclear test in Nevada 38 days earlier. It reached speeds equal to six times Earth’s escape velocity and was never found. (Wikipedia)
46. Donations to the NRA increase 30% the year after a school shooting occurs in a county. (“School shootings increase NRA donations“)
47. The producers of Mork and Mindy needed censors who spoke four languages to catch all the swear words Robin Williams tried to sneak in. (YouTube)
48.The lottery for getting drafted to fight in the Vietnam War wasn’t actually random. The numbers drawn came from a tub that was not thoroughly mixed, and the person drawing almost always drew from the top. (Misha Teplitskiy) Monte Carlo simulations estimate the probability the numbers were randomly drawn was 0.09%. (Understanding Probability)
49. Foreign leaders and diplomats who stay at the White House are entitled to courtesy laundry service. Most guests need only one or two items cleaned, except, apparently, Benjamin Netanyahu, who brings suitcases full of dirty laundry on each visit. (He denies this.) (“Israel’s Netanyahu brings his dirty laundry to Washington. Literally.“)
50. Waymo self-driving taxis generate 88% fewer property damage claims and 92% fewer bodily injury claims than human drivers. After driving 25.3 million miles, Waymo Driver had nine property damage claims and two injury claims, compared to 78 property damage claims and 26 injury claims from humans who drive an equivalent number of miles. (“New Swiss Re study: Waymo is safer than even the most advanced human-driven vehicles“)
51. Among luxury brands, an increase in the size of the logo by one point on a seven-point scale results in a $122.26 price decrease for Gucci and a $26.27 decrease for Louis Vuitton. (The Status Game)
52.Bulls can’t see red. It’s not red that makes them mad. It’s “being treated like crap” that makes them mad. (Eve: How the Female Body Drove 200 Million Years of Evolution)
1. Employees who use Firefox or Chrome have a 15% higher retention rate and report more satisfaction at work than employees who use Internet Explorer or Safari. This is because they’re less likely to accept the default way of doing things. (“What your web browser says about you“)
2. Doctors are 14% more likely to diagnose a child with ADHD on October 31, not because there are more kids with ADHD, but because the kids are excited to go trick-or-treating. (“Halloween, ADHD, and Subjectivity in Medical Diagnosis“)
3. It takes nine out of ten Americans to agree on a policy in order for it to have a 50% chance of being approved. (Affluence and Influence: Economic Inequality and Political Power in America)
4. When men feel their masculinity is threatened, they are 24 percentage-points more likely to want to buy an SUV. They are also willing to pay $7,320 more than non-threatened men for the same vehicle. (“Overdoing Gender: A Test of the Masculine Overcompensation Thesis“)
5. Swearing improves grip strength by 9%, wall sit time by 22%, and plank time by 12%. (“Effect of swearing on physical performance“)
6. Every culture has a word for black and white. If a culture has a third word for a color, it is always red. If it has a fourth word, it is either yellow or green. (Wikipedia)
7. Walking speed on the streets of New York, Boston, and Philadelphia has increased 15% since 1979. (“Shifting Patterns of Social Interaction: Exploring the Social Life of Urban Spaces Through A.I.“)
8. Indian Americans own about half of all motels in the United States. Of them, 70% have the last name Patel. (Life Behind the Lobby)
9. About 25% of the decline of casual sex among young men since 2007 can be explained by video games. (“Why Are Fewer Young Adults Having Casual Sex?“)
10. ChatGPT caused a 2% drop in the number of freelance jobs posted on Upwork. (“The Short-Term Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence on Employment: Evidence from an Online Labor Market“)
11. AI produces fewer greenhouse gas emissions than humans! Humans emit 27g of CO2 in the time it takes to write three hundred words. ChatGPT, however, performs the same task in 4.4 seconds and produces only 2.2g of CO2. (“The carbon emissions of writing and illustrating are lower for AI than for humans“)
12. Russia fined Google $20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 for blocking pro-Russia media channels on YouTube. The fine doubles each week it remains unpaid. After 219 weeks, Google will owe Russia a googol. (“Russia fined Google more than Earth’s entire GDP for a Millennium“)
13. For every 10% increase in missionaries to China from a Congressional district, a Congressman was 8% more likely to vote for foreign aid in subsequent decades. (“Missionaries and the Birth of International Development“)
14. In 2018, truckers in Maine received an extra $5 million in overtime pay because of the ambiguity created by the Oxford comma in a state law. (“Oxford Comma Dispute Is Settled as Maine Drivers Get $5 Million“)
15. After fluoride is introduced into a city’s drinking water, the number of dentist offices drops 9%. (“Equilibrium effects of public goods: The impact of community water fluoridation on dentists“)
16. Legalization of online sports betting generates an 8% increase in credit card debt among sports betters. The poor are disproportionately affected: low income households spend 32% more on betting than high income households. (“Gambling Away Stability: Sports Betting’s Impact on Vulnerable Households“)
17. Fidget spinners do not work. (“Putting a negative spin on it: Using a fidget spinner can impair memory for a video lecture“)
18. It takes twice as long to cook a chicken today compared to 100 years ago because twenty-first century chickens get less exercise. (The Essential New York Times Cookbook)
19. American baby names trends shifted from family names a century ago to popular names a generation ago to popular endings today. A generation of people named Jason has given way to babies with -son endings: Mason, Jackson, Grayson, and Carson. Today, 48% of the top 500 baby names share only ten endings. (“The mysterious tyranny of trendy baby names“)
20. Irish peacekeepers have been in Lebanon so long that some Lebanese are developing Irish accents. (“Irish peacekeepers stood their ground in the face of an Israeli invasion of Lebanon.“)
21. In 1985, a black bear in northern Georgia died from a cocaine overdose. It was stuffed and is now at the Kentucky Fun Mall in Lexington, Kentucky. Because of a loophole in Kentucky marriage law, it is allowed to perform legally binding weddings. (Wikipedia)
22. The Moon is part of the Diocese of Orlando, in accordance with the 1917 Code of Canon Law, which states that “any newly discovered territory was placed under the jurisdiction of the diocese from which the expedition which discovered that territory left.” (“Does the Church Have Jurisdiction Over the Moon?“)
23. Going to the moon was never popular. The only time a majority of Americans supported the Apollo program was right after the Apollo 11 landing, when 53% did. (“Public opinion polls and perceptions of US human spaceflight“)
24. Women are more likely to recommend shorter haircuts to clients they believe are as attractive or more attractive than themselves. (“Off with her hair: Intrasexually competitive women advise other women to cut off more hair“)
25. Heavy metal guitarists who play fast tend to have higher rates of intrasexual competitiveness, too. The main motivating factor behind becoming a heavy metal guitarist is not to impress women, but to impress other men. (“Extreme metal guitar skills linked to intrasexual competition, but not mating success“)
26. Pregnancy burns 50,000 calories. (Also, according to Claude, it also takes 50,000 calories to keep a small maple tree alive for one year; generate 12 pounds of honey; drive an electric car for 20 miles; run five marathons; heat a hot tub from room temperature to 104°; or dissipate the energy from a baseball-size meteor entering the upper atmosphere at 40,000mph. Happy Mothers Day!) “Metabolic loads and the costs of metazoan reproduction“)
27. Because they lose their hearing as they age, men over the age of twenty-five can’t hear noises higher than 17.4 kHz. Shopkeepers in the U.K. invented an alarm that plays 17.4 kHz at 100 decibels to drive away loiterers—mostly young men. (Eve: How the Female Body Drove 200 Million Years of Evolution)
28. By A.D. 750, because of copying errors and general forgetting-what-he-looked-like, the image of the Roman emperor on English coins evolved into a porcupine. (“Money, art, and representation: the powerful and pragmatic faces of medieval coinage“)
29. People overestimate others’ dishonesty by about 13.6%. (“Belief versus Reality: People Overestimate the Actual Dishonesty of Others”)
30. Vultures in India and Pakistan are dying from ingesting trace amounts of diclofenac, an anti-inflammatory given to cattle throughout India and Pakistan. Because of this, Zoroastrians burial rites, which require vultures, are under threat. (“‘Our culture is dying’: vulture shortage threatens Zoroastrian burial rites“)
31. The programming language C is 75.88 times more energy efficient than Python and 71.9 times faster. (“Ranking Programming Languages by Energy Efficiency“)
32. On average, spouses in the United States have genetic similarity equivalent to that between 4th and 5th cousins. (“We find that the genomes of observed spousal pairs are significantly more similar than that of opposite-sex pairs drawn from the same population. As a benchmark, the magnitude of this similarity roughly corresponds to the similarity between 4th and 5th cousins.”) (“Assortative mating at loci under recent natural selection in humans“)
33. Members of all-male groups are more prone to lying than groups comprised of both men and women. When the first woman joins an all-male group, the rate of lying plummets. (“Honesty of Groups: Effects of Size and Gender Composition“)
34. The requirement that homes be built at least 21 meters apart in parts of the UK dates back to a 1902 regulation drafted by two men who determined this was closest they could be to each other before they could see the other’s nipples through their shirts. (“Edwardian morals, Thatcher and bad design – why Britain’s homes are so hot“)
35. Men are more likely to order two hamburgers at McDonald’s when they order with a screen. When they order from a human, they tend to order only one. (Rory Sutherland)
36. A Massachusetts law requires that fortune tellers be licensed and prohibits “pretended fortune telling.” (“Massachusetts law about fortune tellers“) (via Marginal Revolution)
37. Baby simulators, originally intended to deter teenage pregnancy, actually made girls more likely to get pregnant. Girls who had a baby simulator had an 8% pregnancy rate compared to 4% for girls who didn’t. (“Efficacy of infant simulator programmes to prevent teenage pregnancy“)
38. In the 1990s, then-leader of North Korea, Kim Jong-ll, and current leader Kim Jong-Un got fake Brazilian passports and went to Disneyland in Tokyo (probably). (“North Korea and the Brazil passports: Why were they used by the Kims?“)
39. Negative TV coverage of gas prices starts when gas hits $3.50 per gallon. Each 50-cent increase in gas prices generates an additional 7.5 percentage points of coverage. Fox News covers gas prices most often. (“Bad news bias in gasoline price coverage“)
40. Car seats are not required on planes because it would reduce seat supply and raise fares, causing more families to drive. Because driving is more dangerous than flying, for every child a required car seat would save on an airplane, 60 would die in car accidents. (NTSB)
41. Each additional negative word in a news headline drives 2.3% more clicks. (“Negativity drives online news consumption“)
42. People know whether or not they want to buy a house in just 27 minutes, but it takes 88 minutes to decide on a couch. (“How long does it take to buy a house?“)
43. In 2019, the United States spent 1% of its federal budget on kidney dialysis. (“Patients vs. Profits: Who Wins in the Traditional U.S. Dialysis System?“)
44. In species where males invest in weaponry (antlers, horns, tusks, etc.), female brains are bigger. (“Brains vs Brawn: Relative brain size is sexually dimorphic amongst weapon-bearing ruminants“)
45. The first human object launched into space wasn’t Sputnik 1. It was actually a manhole cover accidently blown off test shaft during a nuclear test in Nevada 38 days earlier. It reached speeds equal to six times Earth’s escape velocity and was never found. (Wikipedia)
46. Donations to the NRA increase 30% the year after a school shooting occurs in a county. (“School shootings increase NRA donations“)
47. The producers of Mork and Mindy needed censors who spoke four languages to catch all the swear words Robin Williams tried to sneak in. (YouTube)
48.The lottery for getting drafted to fight in the Vietnam War wasn’t actually random. The numbers drawn came from a tub that was not thoroughly mixed, and the person drawing almost always drew from the top. (Misha Teplitskiy) Monte Carlo simulations estimate the probability the numbers were randomly drawn was 0.09%. (Understanding Probability)
49. Foreign leaders and diplomats who stay at the White House are entitled to courtesy laundry service. Most guests need only one or two items cleaned, except, apparently, Benjamin Netanyahu, who brings suitcases full of dirty laundry on each visit. (He denies this.) (“Israel’s Netanyahu brings his dirty laundry to Washington. Literally.“)
50. Waymo self-driving taxis generate 88% fewer property damage claims and 92% fewer bodily injury claims than human drivers. After driving 25.3 million miles, Waymo Driver had nine property damage claims and two injury claims, compared to 78 property damage claims and 26 injury claims from humans who drive an equivalent number of miles. (“New Swiss Re study: Waymo is safer than even the most advanced human-driven vehicles“)
51. Among luxury brands, an increase in the size of the logo by one point on a seven-point scale results in a $122.26 price decrease for Gucci and a $26.27 decrease for Louis Vuitton. (The Status Game)
52.Bulls can’t see red. It’s not red that makes them mad. It’s “being treated like crap” that makes them mad. (Eve: How the Female Body Drove 200 Million Years of Evolution)
Wednesday, January 01, 2025
Sunday, December 29, 2024
Friday, December 27, 2024
Energy diversification
Article in hindu business Line
--- **Energy Diversification in India's Oil Import Strategy**
India’s energy strategy is witnessing a significant shift as it diversifies its oil import basket to reduce dependence on traditional suppliers from the Middle East. This change is driven by the country’s burgeoning energy demands and the need for long-term energy security.
### **Key Trends and Developments**
1. **Shift in Supplier Share**:
The share of Middle Eastern crude oil in India’s import basket is expected to decline. Russian crude has emerged as a major player, accounting for more than 40% of India’s total imports in 2024, with 1.7 million barrels per day (b/d) from January to September. - Iraq: Second-largest supplier with 940,000 b/d.
- Saudi Arabia: Third-largest with 623,000 b/d.
- The US and UAE also remain key suppliers.
2. **Focus on New Suppliers**:
- India is exploring long-term contracts with emerging oil producers like Guyana, spurred by diplomatic visits and strategic discussions.
- Guyana is being eyed as a potential major supplier, marking India’s foray into South American crude markets.
3. **Increased Refining Capacity**:
- India’s refining capacity is set to rise to meet growing demand. Policymakers are intensifying efforts to diversify crude sources, aiming to balance cost and security.
4. **Energy Security through Diversification**:
- The strategy includes reducing over-reliance on Middle Eastern suppliers and leveraging cheaper alternatives, like Russian crude, offered at discounts.
### **Demand Dynamics**
India is one of the fastest-growing oil consumption centers, surpassing China’s growth rate in 2024:
- Oil demand rose by 3.2% year-on-year, compared to China’s 1.7%.
- Petrochemical feedstock requirements are driving this surge, alongside increased industrial and transportation needs.
### **Strategic Implications**
- India’s diversification aligns with its aim to safeguard energy security amid geopolitical shifts and market volatility.
- The approach allows India to tap into more competitive pricing and secure supplies from a broader range of countries, reducing risks associated with regional instability.
### **Looking Ahead**
India’s energy diversification strategy is poised to reshape its import dynamics, emphasizing sustainability, cost-efficiency, and long-term partnerships with emerging oil-exporting nations. ---
--- **Energy Diversification in India's Oil Import Strategy**
India’s energy strategy is witnessing a significant shift as it diversifies its oil import basket to reduce dependence on traditional suppliers from the Middle East. This change is driven by the country’s burgeoning energy demands and the need for long-term energy security.
### **Key Trends and Developments**
1. **Shift in Supplier Share**:
The share of Middle Eastern crude oil in India’s import basket is expected to decline. Russian crude has emerged as a major player, accounting for more than 40% of India’s total imports in 2024, with 1.7 million barrels per day (b/d) from January to September. - Iraq: Second-largest supplier with 940,000 b/d.
- Saudi Arabia: Third-largest with 623,000 b/d.
- The US and UAE also remain key suppliers.
2. **Focus on New Suppliers**:
- India is exploring long-term contracts with emerging oil producers like Guyana, spurred by diplomatic visits and strategic discussions.
- Guyana is being eyed as a potential major supplier, marking India’s foray into South American crude markets.
3. **Increased Refining Capacity**:
- India’s refining capacity is set to rise to meet growing demand. Policymakers are intensifying efforts to diversify crude sources, aiming to balance cost and security.
4. **Energy Security through Diversification**:
- The strategy includes reducing over-reliance on Middle Eastern suppliers and leveraging cheaper alternatives, like Russian crude, offered at discounts.
### **Demand Dynamics**
India is one of the fastest-growing oil consumption centers, surpassing China’s growth rate in 2024:
- Oil demand rose by 3.2% year-on-year, compared to China’s 1.7%.
- Petrochemical feedstock requirements are driving this surge, alongside increased industrial and transportation needs.
### **Strategic Implications**
- India’s diversification aligns with its aim to safeguard energy security amid geopolitical shifts and market volatility.
- The approach allows India to tap into more competitive pricing and secure supplies from a broader range of countries, reducing risks associated with regional instability.
### **Looking Ahead**
India’s energy diversification strategy is poised to reshape its import dynamics, emphasizing sustainability, cost-efficiency, and long-term partnerships with emerging oil-exporting nations. ---
Manmohan Singh Legacy as per Chat GPT
Manmohan Singh’s legacy is multifaceted, reflecting his roles as an economist, policymaker, and leader who steered India through transformative economic and political phases. Here's a deeper analysis of his contributions:
---
### **Economic Reforms and Liberalization (1991-1996)**
#### **Background**
When Singh became Finance Minister in 1991, India was on the brink of an economic collapse. The Gulf War had worsened the balance of payments crisis, foreign reserves were nearly depleted, and India faced the prospect of defaulting on its loans.
#### **Actions Taken*
1. **Liberalization of the Economy**:
Singh, in collaboration with Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao, dismantled the License Raj, which had stifled entrepreneurship and innovation for decades. This reform removed bureaucratic hurdles for businesses, encouraging private sector growth.
2. **Trade and Investment Reforms**:
Tariffs and quotas were significantly reduced, allowing greater participation in global markets. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) was encouraged in critical sectors, fostering economic integration with the global economy.
3. **Financial Sector Modernization**:
Singh implemented critical changes, including the establishment of private sector banks and financial institutions. These reforms led to a more robust banking system and laid the groundwork for India’s capital markets.
4. **Currency Devaluation**:
Singh devalued the Indian rupee to make exports competitive and stabilize the economy. Though politically contentious, this move restored investor confidence.
#### **Impact**
These reforms set the stage for India’s economic resurgence. GDP growth, which had stagnated in the late 1980s, picked up, averaging around 5.1% during his tenure. Industries like IT, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles emerged as global leaders.
--- ### **Leadership as Prime Minister (2004-2014)**
#### **First Term (2004-2009)**
Singh’s first term as Prime Minister was marked by bold policy initiatives aimed at inclusive growth: 1. **Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA)**: Aimed at providing employment to rural workers, MGNREGA became one of the largest social welfare schemes globally, lifting millions out of poverty.
2. **Right to Information Act**: This law empowered citizens by providing greater transparency in governance and reducing corruption.
3. **Right to Education Act**: Singh’s government made elementary education a fundamental right, ensuring free and compulsory education for children aged 6-14.
4. **India-US Civil Nuclear Agreement**: This landmark deal ended India’s nuclear isolation, allowing access to international nuclear technology and fuel while maintaining its strategic autonomy.
#### **Second Term (2009-2014)**
While Singh’s second term began with promise, it faced significant challenges:
1. **Economic Slowdown**:
Global financial crises and domestic policy inertia led to a decline in economic growth rates.
2. **Corruption Allegations**: Scandals, such as the 2G spectrum and coal block allocation cases, marred his government’s reputation, although Singh himself remained personally untarnished.
3. **Political Challenges**: Coalition politics and pressure from alliance partners undermined the government’s decision-making capacity, slowing the pace of reforms.
---
### **Leadership Traits and Challenges**
1. **Integrity and Dignity**:
Throughout his career, Singh was admired for his incorruptibility and ethical conduct. His reputation as a “gentleman-politician” set him apart in the often-contentious world of Indian politics.
2. **Steadfast Commitment to Policy**: Singh prioritized evidence-based policymaking and sought expert opinions before implementing reforms, valuing consultation over populism.
3. **Lack of Political Aggression**: Critics argue that Singh’s reserved and non-confrontational style limited his ability to assert authority, especially during his tenure as Prime Minister.
---
### **Long-Term Impact on India**
1. **Economic Transformation**:
Singh’s 1991 reforms set India on a path of sustained economic growth, transforming it into one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. His emphasis on liberalization continues to shape policy directions.
2. **Social Equity**:
Programs like MGNREGA and the Right to Education highlighted Singh’s commitment to bridging economic and social disparities.
3. **Global Standing**:
Singh’s tenure elevated India’s global stature. His diplomatic engagements, especially the Indo-US nuclear deal, showcased his ability to navigate complex geopolitical landscapes.
---
### **Legacy**
Manmohan Singh’s legacy is that of a reluctant yet transformative leader who combined intellectual depth with pragmatic action. While his tenure faced criticism, especially during his second term, his contributions to India’s economic and social fabric remain unparalleled. His life exemplifies the power of quiet leadership grounded in values, intellect, and an unwavering commitment to national progress.
---
---
### **Economic Reforms and Liberalization (1991-1996)**
#### **Background**
When Singh became Finance Minister in 1991, India was on the brink of an economic collapse. The Gulf War had worsened the balance of payments crisis, foreign reserves were nearly depleted, and India faced the prospect of defaulting on its loans.
#### **Actions Taken*
1. **Liberalization of the Economy**:
Singh, in collaboration with Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao, dismantled the License Raj, which had stifled entrepreneurship and innovation for decades. This reform removed bureaucratic hurdles for businesses, encouraging private sector growth.
2. **Trade and Investment Reforms**:
Tariffs and quotas were significantly reduced, allowing greater participation in global markets. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) was encouraged in critical sectors, fostering economic integration with the global economy.
3. **Financial Sector Modernization**:
Singh implemented critical changes, including the establishment of private sector banks and financial institutions. These reforms led to a more robust banking system and laid the groundwork for India’s capital markets.
4. **Currency Devaluation**:
Singh devalued the Indian rupee to make exports competitive and stabilize the economy. Though politically contentious, this move restored investor confidence.
#### **Impact**
These reforms set the stage for India’s economic resurgence. GDP growth, which had stagnated in the late 1980s, picked up, averaging around 5.1% during his tenure. Industries like IT, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles emerged as global leaders.
--- ### **Leadership as Prime Minister (2004-2014)**
#### **First Term (2004-2009)**
Singh’s first term as Prime Minister was marked by bold policy initiatives aimed at inclusive growth: 1. **Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA)**: Aimed at providing employment to rural workers, MGNREGA became one of the largest social welfare schemes globally, lifting millions out of poverty.
2. **Right to Information Act**: This law empowered citizens by providing greater transparency in governance and reducing corruption.
3. **Right to Education Act**: Singh’s government made elementary education a fundamental right, ensuring free and compulsory education for children aged 6-14.
4. **India-US Civil Nuclear Agreement**: This landmark deal ended India’s nuclear isolation, allowing access to international nuclear technology and fuel while maintaining its strategic autonomy.
#### **Second Term (2009-2014)**
While Singh’s second term began with promise, it faced significant challenges:
1. **Economic Slowdown**:
Global financial crises and domestic policy inertia led to a decline in economic growth rates.
2. **Corruption Allegations**: Scandals, such as the 2G spectrum and coal block allocation cases, marred his government’s reputation, although Singh himself remained personally untarnished.
3. **Political Challenges**: Coalition politics and pressure from alliance partners undermined the government’s decision-making capacity, slowing the pace of reforms.
---
### **Leadership Traits and Challenges**
1. **Integrity and Dignity**:
Throughout his career, Singh was admired for his incorruptibility and ethical conduct. His reputation as a “gentleman-politician” set him apart in the often-contentious world of Indian politics.
2. **Steadfast Commitment to Policy**: Singh prioritized evidence-based policymaking and sought expert opinions before implementing reforms, valuing consultation over populism.
3. **Lack of Political Aggression**: Critics argue that Singh’s reserved and non-confrontational style limited his ability to assert authority, especially during his tenure as Prime Minister.
---
### **Long-Term Impact on India**
1. **Economic Transformation**:
Singh’s 1991 reforms set India on a path of sustained economic growth, transforming it into one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. His emphasis on liberalization continues to shape policy directions.
2. **Social Equity**:
Programs like MGNREGA and the Right to Education highlighted Singh’s commitment to bridging economic and social disparities.
3. **Global Standing**:
Singh’s tenure elevated India’s global stature. His diplomatic engagements, especially the Indo-US nuclear deal, showcased his ability to navigate complex geopolitical landscapes.
---
### **Legacy**
Manmohan Singh’s legacy is that of a reluctant yet transformative leader who combined intellectual depth with pragmatic action. While his tenure faced criticism, especially during his second term, his contributions to India’s economic and social fabric remain unparalleled. His life exemplifies the power of quiet leadership grounded in values, intellect, and an unwavering commitment to national progress.
---
Thursday, December 26, 2024
NBA teams are not all playing exactly the same way
No, NBA teams are not all playing exactly the same way
And if you think they are, you're not paying attention to the right things
Jared Dubin
Everywhere you look these days, you can hear someone making some form of the same argument: “Every NBA team plays the same way.” It’s everywhere. It’s on TV. It’s on Twitter. It’s made its way over to Bluesky. It’s probably in your group texts and your DMs and your G-chats, if you’re still using that.
And I’m sorry, but it is just flat-out not true on any level. Like, not even close.
In the sense that somewhere between most and all teams shoot a lot of threes, there is a degree of similarity. But there’s a pretty big gap between the team that shoots the most threes (55.7% of Boston's shots come from beyond the arc) and the team that shoots the least (just 34.1% of Denver's shots are treys). And there are much wider disparities in the ways teams go about actually generating their shots — even among those who get similar types of looks.
Chicago takes the second-highest share of its shots from three, for example, but runs around twice as many hand-offs per 100 possessions as does Boston. In turn, the Bulls run both isolation plays and off-ball screens significantly less often than do the Celtics. Despite those differences, they’re pretty similar in terms of their shot profile, and that's all that people tend to focus on.
Take a look at each team’s play type distribution, and you can spot some pretty massive differences in the way they want to attack their opponents
The Grizzlies, as Ben Taylor explored at Thinking Basketball, essentially never run pick and rolls — at least in comparison with the average NBA team. Their 33.6 ball screens per 100 possessions average is not even in the same universe as the Suns' league-leading 83.8 picks per 100 mark. Yes, the Suns really are running more than twice as many pick and rolls per 100 possession than are the Grizz. And they’re actually joined by 11 other teams who are also more than doubling up Memphis in the P&R department.
I’m not sure how someone could see that, whether on their TV or computer screen or in the (advanced) stat sheet, and conclude that they’re all playing the exact same brand of basketball.
Similarly, you can’t look at the Jazz running nearly 70 off-ball screens per 100 possessions, then check out their former coach Quin Snyder’s new team in Atlanta — which runs just 29.3 of those per 100 — and not plainly see the massive difference in the ways those teams want to accomplish the same goal (scoring points), just based on who is coaching them.
Then you've got the Nets using a metric ton of dribble handoffs (48.8 per 100 possessions) to manufacture space for their players because they don't have an elite individual creator, while, as mentioned the Celtics barely need to bother with DHO action (9.3 hand-offs per 100) because they have Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis and more. Boston just lets those guys isolate to their hearts’ content (27.1 per 100 possessions); but the Warriors (13.3 isos per 100) almost never do the same, instead running their motion offense that we’ve grown so familiar with over the years.
Of course, that’s just play types. They tell us what actions teams are running, but not necessarily how they go about their business offensively. To measure that, I borrowed a concept from friend of the blog Ian Levy, who back in the day created offensive style charts using the public player tracking data. I did the same analysis as Ian, using the following data points for each NBA team:
Pace: Seconds per offensive possession
Shot Selection: Moreyball Rate
Ball Movement: Seconds per touch on offense
Player Movement: Average feet traveled per 24 seconds on offense
I then converted each of those measurements into percentiles so they could be scaled together on radar charts, mostly because I like the way those charts look. And in those, too, you can see that there are so many teams playing basketball so differently from each other.
Check out the league’s three best offenses, for example. Cleveland is going about things in a way that is not remotely similar to either New York or Boston, which play somewhat similarly but also diverge in how quickly they seek shots and how much their players move around on each possession.
You can spot the same kinds of disparities among the NBA’s three worst offenses. New Orleans, Portland, and Washington all use vastly different styles of play to achieve their terrible results. There are a whole bunch of different ways to score inefficiently — which you can even do with a healthy shot distribution like the one the Blazers have.
How about some of the best individual offensive players in the league? Denver plays much differently than Milwaukee, which in turn plays much differently than Oklahoma City. And that makes intuitive sense, because Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are not remotely similar players. Their teams play the style of basketball that best fits their skill sets, and they all still find their way to score at a top-10 rate. Similarly, I’ve written before about how, at least in terms of the ways they create offense for themselves and others, Luka Doncic and LeBron James might be the closest thing to each other in the league. And yet, their teams appear to play much differently, and they each are significantly different than, say, the Sixers. And the Sixers would likely be even more different than them both if their star players had been remotely healthy this season.
We can also look at some of the younger teams with highly unusual offenses. Memphis, as mentioned, runs a much different offense than pretty much everyone else in the NBA. But its way of going about things from an offensive theory standpoint is also much different from teams like Orlando and Utah, which are also not similar to each other at all
And honestly, if you’re paying attention, it’s not even all that hard to spot these differences in style of play. If you’re willing to look at anything beyond “everybody shoots threes,” that is.
There are plenty of legitimate critiques of today’s NBA. The idea that everyone in the league is playing the same exact way just isn’t one of them.
And if you think they are, you're not paying attention to the right things
Jared Dubin
Everywhere you look these days, you can hear someone making some form of the same argument: “Every NBA team plays the same way.” It’s everywhere. It’s on TV. It’s on Twitter. It’s made its way over to Bluesky. It’s probably in your group texts and your DMs and your G-chats, if you’re still using that.
And I’m sorry, but it is just flat-out not true on any level. Like, not even close.
In the sense that somewhere between most and all teams shoot a lot of threes, there is a degree of similarity. But there’s a pretty big gap between the team that shoots the most threes (55.7% of Boston's shots come from beyond the arc) and the team that shoots the least (just 34.1% of Denver's shots are treys). And there are much wider disparities in the ways teams go about actually generating their shots — even among those who get similar types of looks.
Chicago takes the second-highest share of its shots from three, for example, but runs around twice as many hand-offs per 100 possessions as does Boston. In turn, the Bulls run both isolation plays and off-ball screens significantly less often than do the Celtics. Despite those differences, they’re pretty similar in terms of their shot profile, and that's all that people tend to focus on.
Take a look at each team’s play type distribution, and you can spot some pretty massive differences in the way they want to attack their opponents
The Grizzlies, as Ben Taylor explored at Thinking Basketball, essentially never run pick and rolls — at least in comparison with the average NBA team. Their 33.6 ball screens per 100 possessions average is not even in the same universe as the Suns' league-leading 83.8 picks per 100 mark. Yes, the Suns really are running more than twice as many pick and rolls per 100 possession than are the Grizz. And they’re actually joined by 11 other teams who are also more than doubling up Memphis in the P&R department.
I’m not sure how someone could see that, whether on their TV or computer screen or in the (advanced) stat sheet, and conclude that they’re all playing the exact same brand of basketball.
Similarly, you can’t look at the Jazz running nearly 70 off-ball screens per 100 possessions, then check out their former coach Quin Snyder’s new team in Atlanta — which runs just 29.3 of those per 100 — and not plainly see the massive difference in the ways those teams want to accomplish the same goal (scoring points), just based on who is coaching them.
Then you've got the Nets using a metric ton of dribble handoffs (48.8 per 100 possessions) to manufacture space for their players because they don't have an elite individual creator, while, as mentioned the Celtics barely need to bother with DHO action (9.3 hand-offs per 100) because they have Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis and more. Boston just lets those guys isolate to their hearts’ content (27.1 per 100 possessions); but the Warriors (13.3 isos per 100) almost never do the same, instead running their motion offense that we’ve grown so familiar with over the years.
Of course, that’s just play types. They tell us what actions teams are running, but not necessarily how they go about their business offensively. To measure that, I borrowed a concept from friend of the blog Ian Levy, who back in the day created offensive style charts using the public player tracking data. I did the same analysis as Ian, using the following data points for each NBA team:
Pace: Seconds per offensive possession
Shot Selection: Moreyball Rate
Ball Movement: Seconds per touch on offense
Player Movement: Average feet traveled per 24 seconds on offense
I then converted each of those measurements into percentiles so they could be scaled together on radar charts, mostly because I like the way those charts look. And in those, too, you can see that there are so many teams playing basketball so differently from each other.
Check out the league’s three best offenses, for example. Cleveland is going about things in a way that is not remotely similar to either New York or Boston, which play somewhat similarly but also diverge in how quickly they seek shots and how much their players move around on each possession.
You can spot the same kinds of disparities among the NBA’s three worst offenses. New Orleans, Portland, and Washington all use vastly different styles of play to achieve their terrible results. There are a whole bunch of different ways to score inefficiently — which you can even do with a healthy shot distribution like the one the Blazers have.
How about some of the best individual offensive players in the league? Denver plays much differently than Milwaukee, which in turn plays much differently than Oklahoma City. And that makes intuitive sense, because Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are not remotely similar players. Their teams play the style of basketball that best fits their skill sets, and they all still find their way to score at a top-10 rate. Similarly, I’ve written before about how, at least in terms of the ways they create offense for themselves and others, Luka Doncic and LeBron James might be the closest thing to each other in the league. And yet, their teams appear to play much differently, and they each are significantly different than, say, the Sixers. And the Sixers would likely be even more different than them both if their star players had been remotely healthy this season.
We can also look at some of the younger teams with highly unusual offenses. Memphis, as mentioned, runs a much different offense than pretty much everyone else in the NBA. But its way of going about things from an offensive theory standpoint is also much different from teams like Orlando and Utah, which are also not similar to each other at all
And honestly, if you’re paying attention, it’s not even all that hard to spot these differences in style of play. If you’re willing to look at anything beyond “everybody shoots threes,” that is.
There are plenty of legitimate critiques of today’s NBA. The idea that everyone in the league is playing the same exact way just isn’t one of them.
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